Talent abounds in the Jay minor league system, from mostly raw talents drafted in 1999-2001 by the Ash/Wilken team to more finished products chosen in 2002-2004 by Ricciardi and his team. This is the first year of Rule 5 eligibility for the 2002 college drafts. Some of the earlier drafts have made big leaps this year. Keeping as much as possible of this talent through the Rule 5 draft is a challenge. Here's an early look at some of the decisions that will have to made by the team.
The existing 40 man roster
I count 22 players who clearly will be protected:
Many or most of the following will be protected, depending on contract status and performance the rest of this year:
Howie Clark, Dave Berg, Bobby Estalella, Mike Nakaumura, Aquilino Lopez and Valerio de los Santos are unlikely to be on the 40 man roster at the time of the Rule 5 draft. I estimate that there will be 6-8 spots available for additions to the list, allowing that the team may wish to leave a spot or two for a Rule 5 selection of its own.
The new Rule 5 eligibles
These players will be eligible to be chosen, and could conceivably be chosen, in the coming Rule 5 draft if not on the 40 man roster:
Jordan's July farm report has the lowdown on each of these prospects. Only Adams and League are sure things to be added to the 40 man roster. If Gustavo Chacin continues to perform at the same high level of the last month or so, you would think that he too would be added.
I wouldn't think that Jordan DeJong, Carlo Cota or Rodney Medina would make the 40 man roster, in light of age and performance. Davis Romero and Robinson Diaz are interesting cases; they are very young, talented, but have only played at low A Charleston. Gord Ash might very well be interested in them, but most GMs would take a pass.
The tough cases are Negron, Tablado, Hattig, Davenport, Ramirez and Perkins. Each of the position player prospects (Negron, Tablado, Hattig and Davenport) has made a leap forward this year, which makes assessing true talent level difficult. I would rank them in the order listed, but the players are close enough that performance in August could change my view. Hattig was acquired recently, and there may be some reluctance to leave him exposed for this reason, depending on whether he was seen primarily as support for the minor league system or as a bona fide hot prospect in his own right. Ismael Ramirez had put in two solid years, one in Charleston and another in Dunedin, but in context, they're not wildly impressive. He wouldn't make my list. Vince Perkins is recovering from injury, and will be watched through August.
Despite Dustin McGowan's serious injury and Francisco Rosario's difficult recovery from his surgery, it has been a good year for the Jay minor league system. It does make for some tough choices at Rule 5 draft time; one good player or maybe two could very well be lost. We'll check back on the picture just before the draft.
The existing 40 man roster
I count 22 players who clearly will be protected:
Miguel Batista Justin Miller Francisco Rosario
Dave Bush Adam Peterson Gabe Gross
Vinnie Chulk Justin Speier Reed Johnson
Jason Frasor Josh Towers Alex Rios
Roy Halladay Kevin Cash Vernon Wells
Kerry Ligtenberg Guillermo Quiroz Josh Phelps
Ted Lilly Eric Hinske
Dustin McGowan Orlando Hudson
Many or most of the following will be protected, depending on contract status and performance the rest of this year:
Jason Arnold Gregg Zaun Jorge Sequea
Sean Douglass Carlos Delgado Chris Woodward
Bob File Chris Gomez John-Ford Griffin
Greg Myers Frank Menenchino Frank Catalanotto
Kevin Frederick
Howie Clark, Dave Berg, Bobby Estalella, Mike Nakaumura, Aquilino Lopez and Valerio de los Santos are unlikely to be on the 40 man roster at the time of the Rule 5 draft. I estimate that there will be 6-8 spots available for additions to the list, allowing that the team may wish to leave a spot or two for a Rule 5 selection of its own.
The new Rule 5 eligibles
These players will be eligible to be chosen, and could conceivably be chosen, in the coming Rule 5 draft if not on the 40 man roster:
Russ Adams John Hattig Carlo Cota
Brandon League Jordan DeJong Rodney Medina
Gustavo Chacin Ron Davenport Davis Romero
Miguel Negron Ismael Ramirez Robinson Diaz
Raul Tablado Vince Perkins
Jordan's July farm report has the lowdown on each of these prospects. Only Adams and League are sure things to be added to the 40 man roster. If Gustavo Chacin continues to perform at the same high level of the last month or so, you would think that he too would be added.
I wouldn't think that Jordan DeJong, Carlo Cota or Rodney Medina would make the 40 man roster, in light of age and performance. Davis Romero and Robinson Diaz are interesting cases; they are very young, talented, but have only played at low A Charleston. Gord Ash might very well be interested in them, but most GMs would take a pass.
The tough cases are Negron, Tablado, Hattig, Davenport, Ramirez and Perkins. Each of the position player prospects (Negron, Tablado, Hattig and Davenport) has made a leap forward this year, which makes assessing true talent level difficult. I would rank them in the order listed, but the players are close enough that performance in August could change my view. Hattig was acquired recently, and there may be some reluctance to leave him exposed for this reason, depending on whether he was seen primarily as support for the minor league system or as a bona fide hot prospect in his own right. Ismael Ramirez had put in two solid years, one in Charleston and another in Dunedin, but in context, they're not wildly impressive. He wouldn't make my list. Vince Perkins is recovering from injury, and will be watched through August.
Despite Dustin McGowan's serious injury and Francisco Rosario's difficult recovery from his surgery, it has been a good year for the Jay minor league system. It does make for some tough choices at Rule 5 draft time; one good player or maybe two could very well be lost. We'll check back on the picture just before the draft.
