I did a similar piece recently on the White Sox - Mariners trade, and will be doing the same for some of the more high-impact deadline deals we've seen. First stop, Tampa Bay.
To the Devil Rays - Scott Kazmir and Joselo Diaz
To the Mets - Victor Zambrano and Batolome Fortunato
The Devil Rays will get six (plus) years of Scott Kazmir and six-plus of Diaz before they hit free agency. The Mets will get six-plus of Fortunato (though Fortunato is, I'm told, actually thirty or so instead of his baseball age of 24. I've no idea whether this is credible) and three years of Victor Zambrano at arbitration.
PECOTA Projections
Mets - Victor Zambrano
2004 1.0 * 35% = 0.4 wins
2005 0.7 wins
2006 0.7 wins
2007 0.8 wins
Total 2.6 wins
Why so low? Easy. Zambrano's not really a very good starter, and his likelihood to collapse is very high because of his horrible control problems. Last year he completed the wildness Triple Crown, leading the league in walks, wild pitches, and hit batsmen. This has not changed; in fact, he's more wild than ever, with many more HBP and walks this year than last.
Mets - Bartolome Fortunato
Total 0.1 WARP over six years. BPro labels Fortunato, like a lot of minor league relievers, as very unlikely to ever do anything.
Mets Total - 2.7 wins
Devil Rays - Joselo Diaz
Nothing to report. Diaz's WARP projections are underwater (he's projected at a total of -0.8 WARP) mostly because he had very little pitching experiencecoming into this year.
Devil Rays - Scott Kazmir
2005 - 0.7 wins
2006 - 0.9 wins
2007 - 2.1 wins
2008 - 2.7 wins
2009 - 2.6 wins (interpolated)
2010 - 2.6 wins (interpolated)
A total of 11.6 wins. Meaning that the Devil Rays came out nine wins ahead. I think that's a conservative estimate, but appropriately so given the discount you need for the uncertainty over Kazmir's future.
Anyway, call it ten to fifteen million dollars that the Mets gave the Devil Rays.
Let's look at this another way, though. Who are Scott Kazmir's best comparisons as a player, according to PECOTA? Eight players were reasonably close. They were:
Mike McQueen, 1971
Don Gullett, 1971
Curt Simmons, 1949
Johnny Antonelli, 1950
Jim Palmer, 1966
Jose Rijo, 1985
Ray Sadecki, 1961
Sam McDowell, 1963
McQueen, a reliever, blew out his arm and disappeared. Over the next six years, here's what the other seven did:
Don Gullett went 84-40, started ten postseason games, twice finished in the Top 1o of the Cy Young balloting. He also had hurt his arm quite badly during this time.
Curt Simmons went 69-52, missing a year in the services. Was top 10 in wins and ERA four times, strikeouts twice. ERA+es of 120, 130, 130 and 143. Was picked to two all-star teams.
Johnny Antonelli missed two years in the services, then went 67-48 the next four years, including two 20-win seasons. Led the league in ERA once, win percentage once, ERA+ once. Third in MVP voting in '54, three All-Star selections. ERA+es of 124, 176, 121, 132.
Jim Palmer hurt his arm, missed almost all of two years, then went 77-33 the next four years, 80-34 overall. Finished in the top 3 in ERA three times, fourth the other year. Three twenty-win seasons. ERA+es of 152, 134, 125, 149.
Jose Rijo battled inconsistency, but went 60-46. Fourth in Cy Young voting once, a World Series MVP award, three top-5 finishes in ERA. ERA+es of 150, 127, 146, 151.
Ray Sadecki went 59-58, again battling some inconsistency. Lots of bad ERA+ numbers, only two good years - one of which was a 20-win season where he finished 10th in ERA.
Sam McDowell went 83-68, was an All-Star four times, led the league in strikeouts four times and was second once, came third in Cy Young balloting. ERA+es of 133, 161, 120, 163, 128.
I'm not saying that just because Kazmir is more comparable to these players than anyone else, that he's therefore going to be a star. I just think it's extraordinarily likely - no matter what Rick Peterson's opinion on the matter is - that Kazmir is going to be a better pitcher in real life, than Victor Zambrano is in his dreams. Ray Sadecki was the worst pitcher in this list (other than McQueen, who got hurt) and Sadecki was basically Zambrano's equal. The Devil Rays seem to have gotten a good deal; we won't know until probably 2007 at the earliest.
To the Devil Rays - Scott Kazmir and Joselo Diaz
To the Mets - Victor Zambrano and Batolome Fortunato
The Devil Rays will get six (plus) years of Scott Kazmir and six-plus of Diaz before they hit free agency. The Mets will get six-plus of Fortunato (though Fortunato is, I'm told, actually thirty or so instead of his baseball age of 24. I've no idea whether this is credible) and three years of Victor Zambrano at arbitration.
PECOTA Projections
Mets - Victor Zambrano
2004 1.0 * 35% = 0.4 wins
2005 0.7 wins
2006 0.7 wins
2007 0.8 wins
Total 2.6 wins
Why so low? Easy. Zambrano's not really a very good starter, and his likelihood to collapse is very high because of his horrible control problems. Last year he completed the wildness Triple Crown, leading the league in walks, wild pitches, and hit batsmen. This has not changed; in fact, he's more wild than ever, with many more HBP and walks this year than last.
Mets - Bartolome Fortunato
Total 0.1 WARP over six years. BPro labels Fortunato, like a lot of minor league relievers, as very unlikely to ever do anything.
Mets Total - 2.7 wins
Devil Rays - Joselo Diaz
Nothing to report. Diaz's WARP projections are underwater (he's projected at a total of -0.8 WARP) mostly because he had very little pitching experiencecoming into this year.
Devil Rays - Scott Kazmir
2005 - 0.7 wins
2006 - 0.9 wins
2007 - 2.1 wins
2008 - 2.7 wins
2009 - 2.6 wins (interpolated)
2010 - 2.6 wins (interpolated)
A total of 11.6 wins. Meaning that the Devil Rays came out nine wins ahead. I think that's a conservative estimate, but appropriately so given the discount you need for the uncertainty over Kazmir's future.
Anyway, call it ten to fifteen million dollars that the Mets gave the Devil Rays.
Let's look at this another way, though. Who are Scott Kazmir's best comparisons as a player, according to PECOTA? Eight players were reasonably close. They were:
Mike McQueen, 1971
Don Gullett, 1971
Curt Simmons, 1949
Johnny Antonelli, 1950
Jim Palmer, 1966
Jose Rijo, 1985
Ray Sadecki, 1961
Sam McDowell, 1963
McQueen, a reliever, blew out his arm and disappeared. Over the next six years, here's what the other seven did:
Don Gullett went 84-40, started ten postseason games, twice finished in the Top 1o of the Cy Young balloting. He also had hurt his arm quite badly during this time.
Curt Simmons went 69-52, missing a year in the services. Was top 10 in wins and ERA four times, strikeouts twice. ERA+es of 120, 130, 130 and 143. Was picked to two all-star teams.
Johnny Antonelli missed two years in the services, then went 67-48 the next four years, including two 20-win seasons. Led the league in ERA once, win percentage once, ERA+ once. Third in MVP voting in '54, three All-Star selections. ERA+es of 124, 176, 121, 132.
Jim Palmer hurt his arm, missed almost all of two years, then went 77-33 the next four years, 80-34 overall. Finished in the top 3 in ERA three times, fourth the other year. Three twenty-win seasons. ERA+es of 152, 134, 125, 149.
Jose Rijo battled inconsistency, but went 60-46. Fourth in Cy Young voting once, a World Series MVP award, three top-5 finishes in ERA. ERA+es of 150, 127, 146, 151.
Ray Sadecki went 59-58, again battling some inconsistency. Lots of bad ERA+ numbers, only two good years - one of which was a 20-win season where he finished 10th in ERA.
Sam McDowell went 83-68, was an All-Star four times, led the league in strikeouts four times and was second once, came third in Cy Young balloting. ERA+es of 133, 161, 120, 163, 128.
I'm not saying that just because Kazmir is more comparable to these players than anyone else, that he's therefore going to be a star. I just think it's extraordinarily likely - no matter what Rick Peterson's opinion on the matter is - that Kazmir is going to be a better pitcher in real life, than Victor Zambrano is in his dreams. Ray Sadecki was the worst pitcher in this list (other than McQueen, who got hurt) and Sadecki was basically Zambrano's equal. The Devil Rays seem to have gotten a good deal; we won't know until probably 2007 at the earliest.
