No other GM faces a dilemma this week with the magnitude of the one Gerry Hunsicker faces.
Clearing the Ayers: The Hunsicker Problem
I have changed my column name, as you see above, to avoid any potential copyright violations, which were never intended. Regardless, it’s a pun on my surname suggested by Mike D, so all the credit, or blame, should go his way. I’ve also changed the format somewhat, as I’ll be posting pieces individually, instead of three at once, like I was before. Hopefully I’ll be able to do two or three most weeks, but I’ve been cursed with Gleeman-itis my entire life (at least when I get around to writing things), so as you’ll see below, things still will remain long, most of the time.
Gerry Hunsicker, the GM of the Astros, has a problem. In what should be a relatively quiet trading deadline, where the biggest name who is solidly on the trading block is Kris Benson, watching what Hunsicker does with the Astros is probably going to be the most interesting story of all.
They are stuck in middle of the metaphorical rock and a hard place. On one hand, the Astros have clearly committed to making a World Series run this year and have the requisite talent to do this on the current roster. On the other hand, the Astros currently sit in fourth place in the NL Central, and are in sixth place in the wild card standings, five and half games back of the Giants and Padres. However, the situation the Astros face is much tougher than what most teams falling short of their expectations have to deal with, because of the makeup of their roster.
There are many key contributors to the Astros this year and I will talk about a few of them, and the situation they present to Hunsicker. Some don’t really present him with a dilemma themselves, and I will skip over them. Those players include Lance Berkman, Brad Lidge, Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. Here are the other key contributors to the Astros so far this year:
Craig Biggio, LF, 38, .305/.367/.485, 29.6 VORP
Many people, myself included, thought Craig Biggio was about finished as a ballplayer. In what had been a very underrated career (although I wouldn’t go as far as Bill James does) Biggio had consistently hit very well for a second baseman. He won four gold gloves from 1994-7, stole a fair number of bases at a nice 77% rate for his career and was by all reports an excellent influence in the clubhouse.
However, in the last two years Biggio had seen a drop in his average and power numbers, and looked to be reaching that point in his career where he was getting by on reputation more than ability. Biggio moved to centre field to accommodate the signing of Jeff Kent without complaining, and by all accounts he worked very hard at learning his new position. On the field though, the stats showed that Biggio was a poor defensive centre-fielder, and this detracted from whatever minimal offensive value he possessed.
This year Biggio’s showing signs of being the ballplayer he used to be in the mid-to-late nineties. While he’s not the ballplayer he was during his best years, his GPA is .286, which would rank him in the top-half of left fielders from last year, and above the league average at any position. Biggio is having a solid offensive season, perhaps due in part to him being fully healthy and avoiding the nagging injuries of the past couple of seasons. Biggio had a hot April, and dropped towards his numbers of the last couple of seasons in May and June, but has shot back up with a .926 OPS in July. However, he is a 38-year-old who spent four seasons as a full-time catcher, and this offensive revival is almost certainly not going to last past this year.
Biggio has a $3 million option for 2005, or a $1 million buyout. Biggio and the next player I’ll talk about, Jeff Bawell, present the additional problem of representing the Astros in a way that I don’t think any other modern-day player symbolizes a team. Both players have been there since 1991, and for a decade they were the best two offensive players on the team.
The dilemma Craig Biggio presents is obvious. On one hand you have a 38-year-old franchise player having a good season. On a year when you’ve put all your eggs into one basket, you couldn’t have asked Biggio to do anymore. This player has shown a tremendous amount of hometown loyalty in his career, and especially over the last few seasons, and as dangerous as sentimentally can be to running a baseball team, he doesn’t want to leave and most fans probably don’t to see Biggio in another team’s colours either. However, if you decide to pack it in, Biggio will likely fetch at least a modest return with the season he’s having (if he accepts a deal, being a 10-5 player). Also, dealing him would avoid the awkward option of declining Biggio’s option, as Hunsicker may not want to pay $3 million to Biggio next year, when he will likely regress noticeably.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B, 36, .270/.383/.438, 20.3 VORP
Jeff Bagwell’s contract is an albatross around the neck of the Houston Astros that will continue to grow the more of Bagwell’s talent it continues to eat. Bagwell’s being paid $13 million this year, $15 million in 2005 and $17 million in 2006. In 2007 Bagwell has an $18 million option, with a $12 million buyout. From 1994-2000 Bagwell had some great years, which began with his MVP campaign in 1994, and continued through a .310/.424/.615 campaign in 2000.
Bagwell has declined in ability every year since then, and his average and on-base percentage numbers are remaining relatively stable, but his power numbers are decreasing dramatically. He’s still a good offensive first baseman, but how long that will continue to last is a question that must be considered. Bagwell’s had some serious injury problems, most noticeably with his shoulder, which severely limits his ability to throw and likely has impacted his swing.
Bagwell is going to remain an Astro until his contract runs out. I can’t see any team deciding to take on the remnants of his contract, unless the Astros paid a significant portion of it. That seems unlikely to happen with the Astros not having a replacement ready and just due to the sheer amount Bagwell is due to be paid. The problem Bagwell presents is he is going to eat larger and larger portions of the payroll in coming years, and will likely continue to see his offensive production slip, or at least hover around the numbers he’s putting up this year. It makes sense that while Bagwell is still useful, and not crippling your payroll like he will in 2 years with potentially poor production, that you would want to contend.
Roger Clemens, SP, 41, 129.1 IP, 12 HR, 51 BB, 133 K, 2.85 ERA, 38.9 VORP
The story of Roger Clemens is likely very familiar to everybody here. He came out of a short-lived retirement to pitch for his hometown Houston Astros, with his buddy Andy Pettitte at age 41. Clemens subsequently had a magnificent first half and was named the NL starter in the All-Star game. Clemens has shown that he still can be an all-star major league starter, and there’s little doubt that he should be a solidly above average starter the rest of this year.
Trading Clemens isn’t really an option unless he specifically asks for a trade, and there’s absolutely no indication he has or that he will. With his success this year, and the special arrangements Clemens has managed to make with the Astros, he may decide to come back for another year in 2005. That’s no guarantee however, and again, does it not make sense to go for it when you have Clemens pitching at his best since 1998, and when you may not have him in your rotation again?
Andy Pettitte, SP, 32, 67.1 IP, 5 HR, 27 BB, 67 K, 4.14 ERA, 10.7 VORP
Andy Pettitte’s in this category due to the way he affects Houston’s payroll. He’s pitched fairly well this year when healthy, but he’s battled injury problems. He likely will continue to be an effective pitcher throughout the life of his contract. He’s not someone that the Astros are thinking of trading, and he’s not a weak spot in the team.
The problem is the structure of Pettitte’s contract. Pettitte signed a $31.5 million, 3 year contract with Houston, but the contract is heavily backloaded. Pettitte is makes $5.5 million this year, $8.5 million next year and $17.5 million in 2006. In 2006 Houston will have $34.5 million tied up in Andy Pettitte and Jeff Bagwell alone, which is almost unfathomable.
Houston could trade some parts and reload for 2005 or 2006, but how much are those two contracts going to hamper their ability to sign free agents in the coming years? Again, does it not make sense to make a playoff push now while Pettitte leaves the team with payroll space, as opposed to trying to build for a future year when two large contracts will be eating up disproportionate amounts portions of your team’s payroll?
Carlos Beltran, CF, 27, .247/.336/.619, 11.0 VORP
The Astros traded their closer, Ocatvio Dotel, and catching prospect John Buck for rent-a-player Carlos Beltran. This move also all but assured that Brad Ausmus will continue to be an offensive black hole at catcher next year, as Buck looked to be ready to assume that role in 2005 (he probably was ready this year). Houston still has a good catching prospect in Hector Gimenez, but he’s not going to be ready for another couple of years, as he’s in Double-A but not doing well.
It was a fairly small price to pay for Beltran, but Beltran is going to be a free agent at year’s end. Scott Boras, Beltran’s agent, has said that his client intends to test free agency to see what he can make on the open market. Bernie Williams is having another sub-par offensive season, Kenny Lofton’s not the player he used to be and George Steinbrenner is willing to spend whatever it takes to have the player he wants. Beltran seems like a natural fit for New York, and if the Yankees don’t win the World Series for a fourth season George will go after him with whatever he has. He probably will even if the Yankees win.
Houston has a chance to resign Beltran if Carlos enjoys his time in the city and the team makes a reasonable offer, but if he’s making his decision based on money alone, Houston can’t contend with Boston, New York, Los Angeles or any other big market that gets involved.
Here’s another example of a player Houston has acquired for the race his year. To pay that price for Beltran and not make the playoffs would be regrettable since the odds are that he will not come back next year. To trade Beltran and get a couple of good prospects back is worth considering seeing where Houston is sitting, but the problems facing them if they rebuild would still be present. With the price you paid for Beltran, does it not make sense to continue down that path, even if the odds look remote? Plus, the return on Beltran would not be as good as what you paid to get him originally (see: Cliff Floyd and the Expos).
Jeff Kent, 2B, 36, .284/.337/.488, 26.0 VORP
Jeff Kent is still one of the elite offensive second baseman in baseball, even if (get ready for the theme of the day) his numbers have slipped somewhat. His defence leaves something to be desired, but to have a bat like his at what is often a defensive position gives your team a definite advantage. Kent’s making $8.5 million this year, on the last year of a two-year contract with the Astros. He has an option next year for $9.5 million, compared to a $700k buyout.
Kent’s another player that could be traded, given the situation Houston finds itself in. His money is going to come off the books at the end of the year anyway unless his option is picked up, which could give Houston more money to go after Beltran. However, even that sort of money may not be enough to beat the offers he’ll receive from other teams. One of the Astros top farmhands, Chris Burke is putting up a .272 major league equivalent average in Triple-A New Orleans and reportedly possesses a great glove. He’s not hit this well most of his minor league career, but production approaching this level combined with solid defence would be more than acceptable. If Houston decides they are on the outside looking in, Kent and Beltran are the two main candidates to be dealt, but the question of whether Houston can afford to rebuild persist.
The NL Central is basically out of the picture, as the Cardinals have managed to build a commanding lead. The wild card is still within Houston’s grasp, but the problem stems not so much from how far back they are, but instead from how many teams they must overtake.
Houston plays the following number of games against teams ahead of them in the wild card standings:
Cincinnati is not a real contender. They have allowed more runs they have scored, and they have a Pythagorean record of 43-56, compared to an actual record of 50-49. They are pretenders, not contenders, but that still leaves four teams to overcome, but its possible given that Houston plays the Cubs a number of times, and San Diego/San Fran/LA will be playing each other frequently, and hopefully opening the door to another team. Still though, what are the odds on overtaking all five of the teams?
What is Huniscker to do? As has been shown, Houston has more riding on a push this year to make the playoffs than probably any other team in baseball. If they did make it to the postseason, then they would be a formidable opponent with Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte and Miller in the rotation. But right now they are on the outskirts of the race, looking at very steep odds to make it to the postseason.
I’ve debated for the past couple of days about what I’d do if I was Gerry Hunsicker. I still can’t really reach a conclusion I’m satisfied with. On one hand, part of me says to deal Beltran and Kent and rebuild for a year or two down the road, because the team is to far back. Another part of me says that the prospects you get in the deal likely won’t help much in 2005, and in 2006 the Astros are going to be in trouble with Lance Berkman (due for a big payday), Andy Pettitte and Jeff Bagwell making about $50 million combined. Maybe you have Clemens for 2005, but you won’t past then regardless, and Beltran could make a difference in two months, even if you can’t sign him in the offseason.
Barring a setback over the next few days, I think I’d stick with it if I’m Hunsicker. I’d try to add a bullpen arm on the 31st for a modest price, and basically I’d stick with the status quo and hope that this is enough to make the playoffs. There seems to have been more post non-waiver trading deadline deals in the past few years, perhaps indicating a willingness of teams to not try to “block” other teams from acquiring certain players. If the Astros fell out of it in August, they could always go this route, but I doubt Beltran would make it through unclaimed. Maybe Kent would and they could make a deal for him, and salvage something.
In the offseason I’d decline Kent’s option and let Chris Burke play at second. I’d go hard after Beltran with Kent’s money, and when that didn’t work I’d try sign a bat for the outfield, a bullpen arm and somebody to take most of Ausmus’ playing time at catcher. And is there a worse catching tandem than Ausmus and Raul Chavez?
So Bauxites, agree or disagree? What would you do if you were Gerry Hunsicker?
Clearing the Ayers: The Hunsicker Problem
I have changed my column name, as you see above, to avoid any potential copyright violations, which were never intended. Regardless, it’s a pun on my surname suggested by Mike D, so all the credit, or blame, should go his way. I’ve also changed the format somewhat, as I’ll be posting pieces individually, instead of three at once, like I was before. Hopefully I’ll be able to do two or three most weeks, but I’ve been cursed with Gleeman-itis my entire life (at least when I get around to writing things), so as you’ll see below, things still will remain long, most of the time.
Gerry Hunsicker, the GM of the Astros, has a problem. In what should be a relatively quiet trading deadline, where the biggest name who is solidly on the trading block is Kris Benson, watching what Hunsicker does with the Astros is probably going to be the most interesting story of all.
They are stuck in middle of the metaphorical rock and a hard place. On one hand, the Astros have clearly committed to making a World Series run this year and have the requisite talent to do this on the current roster. On the other hand, the Astros currently sit in fourth place in the NL Central, and are in sixth place in the wild card standings, five and half games back of the Giants and Padres. However, the situation the Astros face is much tougher than what most teams falling short of their expectations have to deal with, because of the makeup of their roster.
There are many key contributors to the Astros this year and I will talk about a few of them, and the situation they present to Hunsicker. Some don’t really present him with a dilemma themselves, and I will skip over them. Those players include Lance Berkman, Brad Lidge, Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. Here are the other key contributors to the Astros so far this year:
Craig Biggio, LF, 38, .305/.367/.485, 29.6 VORP
Many people, myself included, thought Craig Biggio was about finished as a ballplayer. In what had been a very underrated career (although I wouldn’t go as far as Bill James does) Biggio had consistently hit very well for a second baseman. He won four gold gloves from 1994-7, stole a fair number of bases at a nice 77% rate for his career and was by all reports an excellent influence in the clubhouse.
However, in the last two years Biggio had seen a drop in his average and power numbers, and looked to be reaching that point in his career where he was getting by on reputation more than ability. Biggio moved to centre field to accommodate the signing of Jeff Kent without complaining, and by all accounts he worked very hard at learning his new position. On the field though, the stats showed that Biggio was a poor defensive centre-fielder, and this detracted from whatever minimal offensive value he possessed.
This year Biggio’s showing signs of being the ballplayer he used to be in the mid-to-late nineties. While he’s not the ballplayer he was during his best years, his GPA is .286, which would rank him in the top-half of left fielders from last year, and above the league average at any position. Biggio is having a solid offensive season, perhaps due in part to him being fully healthy and avoiding the nagging injuries of the past couple of seasons. Biggio had a hot April, and dropped towards his numbers of the last couple of seasons in May and June, but has shot back up with a .926 OPS in July. However, he is a 38-year-old who spent four seasons as a full-time catcher, and this offensive revival is almost certainly not going to last past this year.
Biggio has a $3 million option for 2005, or a $1 million buyout. Biggio and the next player I’ll talk about, Jeff Bawell, present the additional problem of representing the Astros in a way that I don’t think any other modern-day player symbolizes a team. Both players have been there since 1991, and for a decade they were the best two offensive players on the team.
The dilemma Craig Biggio presents is obvious. On one hand you have a 38-year-old franchise player having a good season. On a year when you’ve put all your eggs into one basket, you couldn’t have asked Biggio to do anymore. This player has shown a tremendous amount of hometown loyalty in his career, and especially over the last few seasons, and as dangerous as sentimentally can be to running a baseball team, he doesn’t want to leave and most fans probably don’t to see Biggio in another team’s colours either. However, if you decide to pack it in, Biggio will likely fetch at least a modest return with the season he’s having (if he accepts a deal, being a 10-5 player). Also, dealing him would avoid the awkward option of declining Biggio’s option, as Hunsicker may not want to pay $3 million to Biggio next year, when he will likely regress noticeably.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B, 36, .270/.383/.438, 20.3 VORP
Jeff Bagwell’s contract is an albatross around the neck of the Houston Astros that will continue to grow the more of Bagwell’s talent it continues to eat. Bagwell’s being paid $13 million this year, $15 million in 2005 and $17 million in 2006. In 2007 Bagwell has an $18 million option, with a $12 million buyout. From 1994-2000 Bagwell had some great years, which began with his MVP campaign in 1994, and continued through a .310/.424/.615 campaign in 2000.
Bagwell has declined in ability every year since then, and his average and on-base percentage numbers are remaining relatively stable, but his power numbers are decreasing dramatically. He’s still a good offensive first baseman, but how long that will continue to last is a question that must be considered. Bagwell’s had some serious injury problems, most noticeably with his shoulder, which severely limits his ability to throw and likely has impacted his swing.
Bagwell is going to remain an Astro until his contract runs out. I can’t see any team deciding to take on the remnants of his contract, unless the Astros paid a significant portion of it. That seems unlikely to happen with the Astros not having a replacement ready and just due to the sheer amount Bagwell is due to be paid. The problem Bagwell presents is he is going to eat larger and larger portions of the payroll in coming years, and will likely continue to see his offensive production slip, or at least hover around the numbers he’s putting up this year. It makes sense that while Bagwell is still useful, and not crippling your payroll like he will in 2 years with potentially poor production, that you would want to contend.
Roger Clemens, SP, 41, 129.1 IP, 12 HR, 51 BB, 133 K, 2.85 ERA, 38.9 VORP
The story of Roger Clemens is likely very familiar to everybody here. He came out of a short-lived retirement to pitch for his hometown Houston Astros, with his buddy Andy Pettitte at age 41. Clemens subsequently had a magnificent first half and was named the NL starter in the All-Star game. Clemens has shown that he still can be an all-star major league starter, and there’s little doubt that he should be a solidly above average starter the rest of this year.
Trading Clemens isn’t really an option unless he specifically asks for a trade, and there’s absolutely no indication he has or that he will. With his success this year, and the special arrangements Clemens has managed to make with the Astros, he may decide to come back for another year in 2005. That’s no guarantee however, and again, does it not make sense to go for it when you have Clemens pitching at his best since 1998, and when you may not have him in your rotation again?
Andy Pettitte, SP, 32, 67.1 IP, 5 HR, 27 BB, 67 K, 4.14 ERA, 10.7 VORP
Andy Pettitte’s in this category due to the way he affects Houston’s payroll. He’s pitched fairly well this year when healthy, but he’s battled injury problems. He likely will continue to be an effective pitcher throughout the life of his contract. He’s not someone that the Astros are thinking of trading, and he’s not a weak spot in the team.
The problem is the structure of Pettitte’s contract. Pettitte signed a $31.5 million, 3 year contract with Houston, but the contract is heavily backloaded. Pettitte is makes $5.5 million this year, $8.5 million next year and $17.5 million in 2006. In 2006 Houston will have $34.5 million tied up in Andy Pettitte and Jeff Bagwell alone, which is almost unfathomable.
Houston could trade some parts and reload for 2005 or 2006, but how much are those two contracts going to hamper their ability to sign free agents in the coming years? Again, does it not make sense to make a playoff push now while Pettitte leaves the team with payroll space, as opposed to trying to build for a future year when two large contracts will be eating up disproportionate amounts portions of your team’s payroll?
Carlos Beltran, CF, 27, .247/.336/.619, 11.0 VORP
The Astros traded their closer, Ocatvio Dotel, and catching prospect John Buck for rent-a-player Carlos Beltran. This move also all but assured that Brad Ausmus will continue to be an offensive black hole at catcher next year, as Buck looked to be ready to assume that role in 2005 (he probably was ready this year). Houston still has a good catching prospect in Hector Gimenez, but he’s not going to be ready for another couple of years, as he’s in Double-A but not doing well.
It was a fairly small price to pay for Beltran, but Beltran is going to be a free agent at year’s end. Scott Boras, Beltran’s agent, has said that his client intends to test free agency to see what he can make on the open market. Bernie Williams is having another sub-par offensive season, Kenny Lofton’s not the player he used to be and George Steinbrenner is willing to spend whatever it takes to have the player he wants. Beltran seems like a natural fit for New York, and if the Yankees don’t win the World Series for a fourth season George will go after him with whatever he has. He probably will even if the Yankees win.
Houston has a chance to resign Beltran if Carlos enjoys his time in the city and the team makes a reasonable offer, but if he’s making his decision based on money alone, Houston can’t contend with Boston, New York, Los Angeles or any other big market that gets involved.
Here’s another example of a player Houston has acquired for the race his year. To pay that price for Beltran and not make the playoffs would be regrettable since the odds are that he will not come back next year. To trade Beltran and get a couple of good prospects back is worth considering seeing where Houston is sitting, but the problems facing them if they rebuild would still be present. With the price you paid for Beltran, does it not make sense to continue down that path, even if the odds look remote? Plus, the return on Beltran would not be as good as what you paid to get him originally (see: Cliff Floyd and the Expos).
Jeff Kent, 2B, 36, .284/.337/.488, 26.0 VORP
Jeff Kent is still one of the elite offensive second baseman in baseball, even if (get ready for the theme of the day) his numbers have slipped somewhat. His defence leaves something to be desired, but to have a bat like his at what is often a defensive position gives your team a definite advantage. Kent’s making $8.5 million this year, on the last year of a two-year contract with the Astros. He has an option next year for $9.5 million, compared to a $700k buyout.
Kent’s another player that could be traded, given the situation Houston finds itself in. His money is going to come off the books at the end of the year anyway unless his option is picked up, which could give Houston more money to go after Beltran. However, even that sort of money may not be enough to beat the offers he’ll receive from other teams. One of the Astros top farmhands, Chris Burke is putting up a .272 major league equivalent average in Triple-A New Orleans and reportedly possesses a great glove. He’s not hit this well most of his minor league career, but production approaching this level combined with solid defence would be more than acceptable. If Houston decides they are on the outside looking in, Kent and Beltran are the two main candidates to be dealt, but the question of whether Houston can afford to rebuild persist.
The NL Central is basically out of the picture, as the Cardinals have managed to build a commanding lead. The wild card is still within Houston’s grasp, but the problem stems not so much from how far back they are, but instead from how many teams they must overtake.
Houston plays the following number of games against teams ahead of them in the wild card standings:
San Diego 0
San Francisco 0
Chicago 7
Philadelphia 3
Cincinnati 9
Cincinnati is not a real contender. They have allowed more runs they have scored, and they have a Pythagorean record of 43-56, compared to an actual record of 50-49. They are pretenders, not contenders, but that still leaves four teams to overcome, but its possible given that Houston plays the Cubs a number of times, and San Diego/San Fran/LA will be playing each other frequently, and hopefully opening the door to another team. Still though, what are the odds on overtaking all five of the teams?
What is Huniscker to do? As has been shown, Houston has more riding on a push this year to make the playoffs than probably any other team in baseball. If they did make it to the postseason, then they would be a formidable opponent with Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte and Miller in the rotation. But right now they are on the outskirts of the race, looking at very steep odds to make it to the postseason.
I’ve debated for the past couple of days about what I’d do if I was Gerry Hunsicker. I still can’t really reach a conclusion I’m satisfied with. On one hand, part of me says to deal Beltran and Kent and rebuild for a year or two down the road, because the team is to far back. Another part of me says that the prospects you get in the deal likely won’t help much in 2005, and in 2006 the Astros are going to be in trouble with Lance Berkman (due for a big payday), Andy Pettitte and Jeff Bagwell making about $50 million combined. Maybe you have Clemens for 2005, but you won’t past then regardless, and Beltran could make a difference in two months, even if you can’t sign him in the offseason.
Barring a setback over the next few days, I think I’d stick with it if I’m Hunsicker. I’d try to add a bullpen arm on the 31st for a modest price, and basically I’d stick with the status quo and hope that this is enough to make the playoffs. There seems to have been more post non-waiver trading deadline deals in the past few years, perhaps indicating a willingness of teams to not try to “block” other teams from acquiring certain players. If the Astros fell out of it in August, they could always go this route, but I doubt Beltran would make it through unclaimed. Maybe Kent would and they could make a deal for him, and salvage something.
In the offseason I’d decline Kent’s option and let Chris Burke play at second. I’d go hard after Beltran with Kent’s money, and when that didn’t work I’d try sign a bat for the outfield, a bullpen arm and somebody to take most of Ausmus’ playing time at catcher. And is there a worse catching tandem than Ausmus and Raul Chavez?
So Bauxites, agree or disagree? What would you do if you were Gerry Hunsicker?
