Thought I'd repost this here, i originally posted it in the roster roundup thread:

JP was on the fan this morning.

He said that there's no truth to the rumours that CWS and LA have been given permission to talk to Delgado. In fact, he said that they can't be given permission unless the trade has been completed first, at which point they get 48 hours to try to negotiate a trade. And he said that won't happen because he's not trading Delgado.

He said that most of the trade talk is about his pitchers but that he's not trading Lilly or Batista unless he gets wowed, but that he's had talks to teams about Terry Adams.

Is there anything to be gained by telling the press that team x has inquired about player y?

JP is a god if he can get anything for Adams. I guess the Red Sox feel that if they make it to the postseason, they ought to make it exciting for everybody: tie game, runners on, Francona gives the call to Adams.

Is anybody second-guessing the quick dismissal of Grady Little?

The Red Sox were supposed to be improved but they may not even make the playoffs this year.

I love baseball!

I hate to day it, but this is one dandy of a sentence from Griffin:

The Jays are becoming the baseball vampires. Having already had a stake driven through their post-season hopes, they have, of late, resorted to scoring runs only at night.

http://www.thewolfshack.com
Am I on crack if I dream about getting the Greek God of Walks for Adams?

I agree with the growing sentiment that Sean Douglass might be recalled to fill in for Halladay the next few weeks (or more). He's hardly an ace, but he's really put it together in Syracuse the last little while and he's the best the Chiefs have to offer on the mound right now.

Gabe Gross, Guillermo Quiroz and Russ Adams will almost certainly be in Toronto by the end of the season; the only question is whether it'll be a September callup or beforehand. I see no need to jump the gun, so when the rosters expand Sept. 1, I think we'll see those three guys debut in the bigs and play intermittently. That will make those games worth watching all by itself.

I'm really surprised by the Red Sox; I wasn't the only person picking them to get to the World Series. But in my pre-season preview, I noted that Derek Lowe was a question mark and that half the offence had career- or near-career years in 2003. Of course, losing Garciaparra was a huge blow, but hey, the Yanks lost Jeter for half of 2003 and they did alright. $100M+ is supposed to buy you depth, among other things. I suppose Francona could take the fall, but I can't see that it's his fault; as in Toronto, the players simply aren't producing.

The Jays are becoming the baseball vampires. Having already had a stake driven through their post-season hopes, they have, of late, resorted to scoring runs only at night.

Nice metaphor, but vampires don't usually drive stakes through their own hearts. Maybe really clumsy vampires, so I suppose it still might apply to the Jays.

Am I on crack if I dream about getting the Greek God of Walks for Adams?

Pure, unadulterated crack, my friend. According to Moneyball, Billy Beane couldn't pry Youkilis loose for Cliff Floyd. Like I said yesterday, a hearty handshake would be a good return for Terry Adams right now.

Yeah, you're probably right Jordan.
I guess I'm just thinking: Why trade Adams for nothing? What's the point? You've already got 3 young relievers (plus Speir), so I don't see the need to open up a roster spot.

I'm pretty sure I've heard JP say that Adams will be spending the entire year in AAA. If Gross is hurting, and you've got Delgado, Phelps and Cat for the DH spot in Toronto, I'm not sure I see him coming up either.

Can anyone explain to me why Delgado is refusing to waive the no-trade clause? I mean, I understand that he prefers to wait until the end of the season to sign a long term contract with a team, but I figure if he isn't planning on staying in Toronto, the least he could do is show a little gratitude toward a team/city that he supposedly loves, and allow them to benefit from his departure by allowing himself to be traded. That is, unless he is actually planning on staying in Toronto, in which case, why not say so, since he would be signing a below market-value deal with the Jays anyway.

P.S. Quick question, did Dane Iorg ever play for the Blue Jays, or was it just Garth (this was a little before my time)?

Am I on crack if I dream about getting the Greek God of Walks for Adams?

I would think that both Adamses still wouldn't get it done.

Paul, Gabe Gross has been playing left field for the Chiefs most of the last few weeks. His arm does seem to be OK. It'd be nice if his bat really took off, but it hasn't.

If Adams Adams wouldn't get it done, perhaps Duran Duran would. Terry Adams makes every Save A Prayer.

I smell cuttlefish.

Skills, Dane Iorg did not play with the Jays.

Absolutely brilliant use of song and band name, Doom Service.

Have a monkey:

unless he is actually planning on staying in Toronto, in which case, why not say so, since he would be signing a below market-value deal with the Jays anyway.

Because then he would be surrending what little negotiating leverage he has. His agent would murder him no doubt if Delgado made that stand. When negotiating a contract, an agent needs to show that he's got other teams he could go to. And Delgado will have other teams interested in him. (But one wonders what the market might really be: with Pudge and Vlad not exactly being hotly pursued last off-season, but it seems ML clubs are making more money this year.)

Dane Iorg never played for the Blue Jays. Just Garth. Garth's son, Isaac, was drafted by the Jays and played in the system for a few years.

Russ Adams would have to go on the 40 man roster in order to be called up. This might not be much of a problem since he'll have to go on after the season anyway but it might not be the type of housekeeping JP wants to do right now.

(But one wonders what the market might really be: with Pudge and Vlad not exactly being hotly pursued last off-season, but it seems ML clubs are making more money this year.)

Not to mention that Vlad and Pudge actually had good years last year; whereas Delgado has looked mostly awful. I don't know what is wrong with him, but he's sure not helping his market value.

Terry Adams makes every Save A Prayer.

That's clever. Kudos to you!

Kudos to Doom Service. That was brilliant.

with Pudge and Vlad not exactly being hotly pursued last off-season, but it seems ML clubs are making more money this year.

It also probably hasn't been lost on many GMs that Rodriguez, the orphaned free agent nobody wanted, has been a huge hit in Detroit, while the drunken-sailor-spending Orioles and Angels are in 4th and 3rd place, respectively. The incentive to spend multi-year mega-bucks on a single player just keeps dropping and dropping every season. Carlos will never see $18.5M again, and he knows it.

The AAA season ends in early September, so Adams may spend the whole year in AAA AND play for the Jays this year.

Keith, of course you are right about Delgado surrendering leverage, but I guess what I'm saying is that if he signed with the Jays, he really would not be surrendering anything significant since they have strict limitations as to what they can pay him regardless. Plus, you could even argue that him saying he wants to stay in Toronto would cause other teams to inflate their offers to him in order to pry him away. In any event, I don't see why he refuses to make a commitment, a la Halladay, to stay with the team if that is really what he wants.

Mike G, I didn't realize that Gross has been playing in the outfield, that's good to hear.

I think both Adameseseseesss would get Youkilis (although I wouldn't do that trade). Let's be honest, Youkilis was overated, and looks to just be a decent third baseman. And Boston would appear to need more help in the middle infield than at 3rd.

Why would the ChiSox want Carlos? They have a pretty big backlog at 1B/DH. Konerko, Thomas, and Delgado playing a three-way platoon over two positions, I guess. Somebody's chain is being yanked here. (hint: he has a moustache)

Youkilis posts a .297/.399/.457 line in his first 130 major league at-bats and all of the sudden he's overrated and just a decent third baseman?

Frank Thomas is out for most of or possibly the rest of the season. Delgado isn't still going anywhere though.

Halladay and Delgado are completely different. Besides being at different stages of their careers, JP and Co were drooling to get Halladay signed long-term. They could have just gone to arbitration with him and hammered out year-by-year deals a-la Escobar. But he's a big part of the future and deserves big cash. Delgado's in decline is probably not even sure if he's wanted next year. JP says he'd take him back, that could be just lip service. If Delgado says he wants to stay, JP could give an incentive-ladden contract, with low base pay, a-la Gord Ash to Jose Canseco (which was a wise move). If Delgado at least gives an air of thinking about making a move, JP has to come with a reasonable yearly base salary. If Delgado doesn't show some life from now until the end of the season, I don't know if you even bring him back, even at a large reduction. Is he even worth $7mil?

Thanks Ryan01. My bad.

Good point Keith. I guess it's just hard for me to accept the fact that we might actually be better off without Delgado. But given the circumstances, it seems probable that he wouldn't fit the team formula...besides, we've got Josh Phelps to play first.

I'm pretty sure I've heard JP say that Adams will be spending the entire year in AAA. If Gross is hurting, and you've got Delgado, Phelps and Cat for the DH spot in Toronto, I'm not sure I see him coming up either.

I don't see much point in promoting Russ Adams yet. While he has been patient and drawn some walks, his defense has been erratic and he hasn't hit for average or power yet. Mid-2005 is the soonest we'll see him in Toronto.

Though I wonder how they will accomodate both Hill and Adams at AAA next year. DH/SS platoon? SS/2B platoon? Leave Hill at AA to start the season?

Delgado's in decline is probably not even sure if he's wanted next year. JP says he'd take him back, that could be just lip service.

Could be, but I see no reason to believe it. I've always gotten the impression that Ricciardi is a huge fan of Carlos, and why wouldn't he be - Delgado's usually one of the very best hitters in baseball.

It's just a question of budget, and how much Carlos wants. Kelvim Escobar said that J.P. essentially said "This is what we can give you," and left it at that; I'd expect something similar with Delgado.

If Delgado doesn't show some life from now until the end of the season, I don't know if you even bring him back, even at a large reduction. Is he even worth $7mil?

Not to Toronto. There's plenty of lefthanded power hitters in the high minors that can either be signed as minor league free agents or traded for cheaply. No point in paying 7MM when you can get a reasonable facsimile for 500K. And keep a close eye on the Phelps/Cat platoon at DH -- that might very well be our 1B for 2005.

Toronto would be much better off using the cash for more pitching depth or perhaps a stopgap shortstop until Adams/Hill are ready. Jose Valentin anyone? Creepy moustache and strikeouts aside, he's been one of my favorite players over the last 5 years. And he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors.

But did he really want to keep Escobar or was he simply going through the motions? For the $6.25M Escobar got from Anaheim, JP got (roughly)Batista (4.37M) and Lilly (2.5M). The market had overpriced Escobar, and JP wasn't going to pay. I think it is the opposite with Delgado. He might cost less than he's actually worth because of his miserable 2004 season.

a hearty handshake would be a good return for Terry Adams right now.

Yesterday someone was talking about dealing Lilly to NY and my thought was, "How about we deal Lilly for a propect but force them to take Adams too"

However after a night's sleep on it that sounds a little goofy to me... I'm thinking we send someone Lilly and Adams can call it a fair deal.

Yes, I think Youkilis is overated.

By all accounts his defense isn't very good (although I don't know what the numbers say). BP recently ran an article were they mention that players with high walk rates in the minors, but little else, tend not to translate those walk rates to the big leagues.

I think he might be good for a 750-850 OPS with below average defense at third base. (I'm trying to find OPS by position somewhere and I can't, anyone know where that info might be found?)

No point in paying 7MM when you can get a reasonable facsimile for 500K.

You got it... way pay anything if you are going nowhere anyway...
How much a difference would a Delgado make, range of 5 games?
so what!!!...

Jacko, I think your comment about left handed power in the minors is one that's often repeated, but I'm no longer sure how true it is. I think that Carlos is far above a replacement level first baseman, and I'm not sure where the Jays would get something better. I think Cat is great, but I think it's unlikely that Cat or Cat/Phelps will outperform Carlos next year.

Although, Cat/Phelps and Valentin versus Delgado and Woodward/Adams is tougher, and I do like the Valentin idea.

From BP

avg obp slug iso
AL 3b 0.269 0.346 0.451 0.181

Jacko, I think your comment about left handed power in the minors is one that's often repeated, but I'm no longer sure how true it is. I think that Carlos is far above a replacement level first baseman, and I'm not sure where the Jays would get something better. I think Cat is great, but I think it's unlikely that Cat or Cat/Phelps will outperform Carlos next year.

I'm probably overreacting to Carlos' horrible year.

When he's going good, he's scary. I'm just not sure if he'll ever get back to his 2003 level (300/400/600). I think he's far more likely to settle in at a 275/400/500 level. Someone like Dan Johnson (AAA Oakland) could produce something pretty close to that in 2005.

As for the Cat/Phelps platoon, are you sure? In a strict platoon, you'd probably get 30 HR and 100 RBI and an 850 OPS out of those two. That's not too far off what I'd expect from Carlos.

Someone like Dan Johnson (AAA Oakland) could produce something pretty close to that in 2005.

.275/.400/.500?

I suppose it could happen. PECOTA has him at .243/.310/.419 for a 2004 projection. Has he really improved that much this year?

Ooops.. I missed the new projections which have him at 268/365/461.

Just wanted to add something to the Garth Iorg conversation, since he was and still is my all-time favorite Jay... His 21-year-old son Eli is a SS at U. of Tennessee (sophomore). And he's much bigger than dad, at 6'3", 200 lbs. He's playing on a summer league team in Connecticut and I'm hoping to see one of his games when I'm vacation there next week.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=mlb&season=2004&seasonType=2&sort=OPS&type=reg&ageMin=0&ageMax=99&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=3b
Paul, COMN for MLB 3rd baseman by OPS. An .800 OPS would put him pretty middle pack, maybe slightly above average. That's not bad. Maybe he's overrated if you thought he was going to be a superstar but I don't know who projected him to be so.

Youkilis hasn't shown just the ability to draw walks. He's made consistent contact (.300 career average in the minors) with very few strikeouts and pretty decent doubles power. That projects very well. I certainly don't think that tag applies any more to Youkilis than it does Adams. Youk may not a superstar but he still looks like a very fine player.

http://www.thewolfshack.com
As for the Cat/Phelps platoon, are you sure?

Absolutely not. Just speaking off the top of my head at a slow day at work.

If you have that platoon at first, and Gross/Johnson in left field, who's the DH? I think that you could get good production from those platoons, but you till need a DH, preferably one that can play somewhere in the field, since some days you'll have Phelps on the bench and he can only play first. I like the idea of Delgado at first, Phelps/Cat at DH, Gross/Johnson in right. That gives you two back up outfielders (Cat and Johnson), plus Phelps, and room for one backup catcher (Zaun/Myers) and two backup middle infielders (Menechino/Woodward/Gomez/Clark/Berg). Then you need a starting shortstop, and I'd love Valentin, but with Delgado on board, even cheaply, there might not be much money left over for that. I think the pitching staff is in good shape for next year. Replace Adams with a FA and maybe get a good lefty reliever and I think they're okay, and don't have to spend much money on upgrades.

Thanks for the info Jim. It looks like 3B is not quite the offensive powerhouse position I'd thought it was.

On Delgado: Like all of you, I've been thinking about whether or not I want to see him in a Jays uniform next year, but not not in terms of whether or not this helps the team. I've been thinking about whether seeing Carlos finish his career as a Jay is worth seeing him in decline, seeing him kind of fade away.

I'm undecided.

Warning long post ahead.

One of the unexplainable things (at least to me) relating to the Jays' offense this season has been their inability to get runners home from third base with less than 2 outs. Its been driving me crazy for most of the year. I thought I'd do a small study on the subject to see if I was being irrational. I went through the gamelogs for each game the Jays had played in the last month, starting with a game against Tampa Bay on June 22. The Jays played 26 games in that stretch.

I was only interested in analyzing one situation - the Jays having a man on third with less than 2 outs. To make it simple the batter gets credit for success if the runner scored in any fashion (on a hit, a walk, HPB, error, etc.). A walk or a HBP that did not score the run was treated as a nil event (it happened only once that I could see). You could have this situation happen more than once in an inning (e.g. yesterday in the first inning both Wells and Delgado came to bat with a man on third and less than 2 outs and were 0 for 2; also someone hitting a triple with a man on third would reproduce the same situation for the next hitter so you could be 2 for 2 in an inning).

Anyway the results were telling. Over the last month, Jays' hitters have faced the situation a total of 52 times and been successful 28 times (53.8%). Put another way, a staggering 46% of the time the batters have struck out, popped up, fouled out or grounded out failing to score the run. If you remove one game against Tampa (the 14-0 blowout) in which Toronto was 5 for 5 in that situation the numbers fall to 23 for 47 - successful less than 50% of the time. By way of contrast, the opposition during the same period faced the situation 65 times and were successful 45 times (69.2%). Given average strikeout rates in the majors the opposition number was about my intuitive guess for what the number should be.

Just as interesting was breaking down the players individually (ranked in order of occurence):

Phelps - 5/8
O-dog - 4/8
Rios - 4/6
Delgado - 0/5
Hinske - 3/5
Berg - 4/5
Johnson - 4/5
Zaun - 1/3
Gomez - 2/3
Woodward - 1/3
Wells - 0/1

Small sample sizes obviously apply, but Delgado's 0 for 5 sticks out like a sore thumb. These situations have determined a few games in the last month - notably yesterday and the pitcher's duel in Oakland, but they've been prominent features of many games.

As I said at the outset, I have no explanation for this. It may all be random bad luck, like hitting with RISP. What concerns me the most is that many of the failures were strikeouts (16 of the 24 outs not producing a run). I have one theory (true or not). I think the Jays' hitting philosophy of refusing to give up outs (in contrast to the old baseball maxim of just putting the ball in play and making a productive out) may be playing a role here. I agree wholeheartedly with the Jays' philosophy as it applies to bunting but I wonder if a few more productive outs might not be in order. What does everyone else think?

http://www.thewolfshack.com
Nigel, I think that's interesting, but more as a reason of why things went wrong and not as a predictor of how they'll go in the future. In fact, i'd say that if the Jays are well below league average this bodes well for the future, as they're likely to improve. Basically I think you have to treat it like RISP. Particularly since Wells and Delgado aren't going to change their hitting approach, and no one else seems to be doing terribly.

The team hasn't been hitting period. Not just clutch situations, or anything like that. In my view, it's more of a problem with them generally sucking with the bat, as opposed to failing to execute.

I wonder if a few more productive outs might not be in order

You mean, trying to make a productive out, like squeezing? Or cutting down on their swings? Expanding the strike zone?

All of these seem like really bad ideas to me, for various reasons.

I'm looking forward to the upcoming TB series this weekend. Those kids are some exciting players, although the pitching leaves something to be desired. My brother-in-law scored tickets through his job that are right behind the Jays dugout on the 100 level. Last time I had seats like that I got Delgado's autograph right before the Jays took the field, but he spurned all other autograph seekers who descended upon him when they saw me getting my ball signed. It was a couple years ago but something I will always remember fondly, especially since he offered to sign it after Loazia turned me down (I asked him cause I figured he would be more likely to sign it since he wasn't a "big star"). Go figure... What a great autograph to get too, after trying for one for (at the time) 24 years.

Anyone else have any stories about meeting a Jay?

Oh then there was the time I was on vacation with my family in the Dominican when I was 10 or 12 and I got sick so I didn't go on a bus tour... They ended up running into George Bell, who got on the bus and signed autographs when he heard the bus was mainly filled with Canadians and not Americans. My sister, who didn't even know who he was, got an autograph.

Craig, your point is obviously right in that the team has been terrible offensively in general. I think that shows up in the fact that, relative to their opposition, the Jays have been in this situation about 20% less often. I'm not sure that that completely explains a failure to get runs in this situation. This isn't a failure to get hits, its mostly a failure to even make contact. As I said, one perfectly accetable theory is that its all random bad luck and if I went through the whole year I would find that it evens out. Based purely on subjective viewing, my guess is that the stats for the year would look like these.

Re: Youkilis, the Romanian god of walks

Paul, COMN for MLB 3rd baseman by OPS. An .800 OPS would put him pretty middle pack, maybe slightly above average.

And he's only a rookie...give the guy a break, Paul.

I always wonder if there is a stat for getting hits or RBI in crucial situations. To me, Delgado has never been good when the batting situation is tense, or the game on the line. How many times have we seen him strike out with the bases loaded? When he hits the ball the other way he can be awesome; when he tries to pull it, he's often terrible. I'd rather have a good contact hitter than home run hitter anyday.

And he's only a rookie...give the guy a break, Paul.

I'm not trying to say that he's terrible. Just that I don't think he's worth some of the praise he was getting.

Would you rather have him or Hinske?

To me, Delgado has never been good when the batting situation is tense, or the game on the line.

Eddie Guardado would beg to differ.

Im starting to think (in a desperate attempt to bring light to the darkness of the Jays 2004 season) that maybe it is a good thing the Jays are falling apart like a mexican space shuttle right now. If the Jays cruised to their standard 3rd place finish this year, management and fans would assume the Jays are right on course for their big 05,06,07 years with just a touch of improvements. By falling apart now, management is becoming aware now that more help must be brought to this team to make them a serious contender. So in a way, I suppose its good they came to the realization now than in 06 when there's much less time to tinker through trial and error.

PS. I cant make tonights game due to work. Anyone going Friday?

Would you rather have him or Hinske?

If money weren't a concern, I might lean toward Hinske. But if I consider that Youk is almost 2 years younger and is 2 years away from arbitration, then it's clear that Youk is the better option for the Jays right now. He'd put up similar production at a fraction of the price while maturing fully when the team is poised to make its most serious run.

That said, I don't think the Jays could acquire Youkilis nor do I suggest they try. Hinske is probably my favorite Jay at this point, so much so that I want to get a beagle, just so I can call it "Hinske".

In Bob Elliott's piece today, he notes that:

Purcey, scouted by Ty Nicholls, made his final start of the season in a 5-1 win over Central Connecticut Blue Devils in the NCAA regional at Oklahoma City. He threw 136 pitches.

My apologies if this has been covered before, but 136 freakin' pitches?! Was Dusty managing him?

Yikes.

I always wonder if there is a stat for getting hits or RBI in crucial situations. To me, Delgado has never been good when the batting situation is tense, or the game on the line.

For his career, Delgado's OPS is about even in all situations:

Career: .941
None on: .951
Runners on: .930
Scoring position: .986
Bases loaded: .949

Source: CNN-SI

"Eddie Guardado would beg to differ"
To me that was wonderful, but an all too infrequent occurrence. It was one of the few highlights of an otherwise disasterous season.

My apologies if this has been covered before, but 136 freakin' pitches?! Was Dusty managing him?

It's certainly scary but not at all uncommon among college pitchers. Keep in mind the college season is shorter and pitchers throw roughly every 7 days instead of every 5 so there's a little less risk. Scary nonetheless though.

Anyone going up to 518 with NFH for this one?

I'm down in the camera bay tonight with my toys. I'll be in 518 tomorrow, though.

My brother-in-law scored tickets through his job that are right behind the Jays dugout on the 100 level.

Hey, Marc, if you're at the one tonight look for me in the camera bay and say hi. I'm tall, with dark hair and glasses and orange shoes, and a huge black camera. I'll probably be on the first base side for most of the game.

Frank Catalanotto gave me a big thumbs up and tossed me a ball after warmup in between innings last year when we had the VOTE CATALANOTTO banner during All-Star voting.

Picture it.



Hinske

Named for Frank:
Are you a still photographer or video?

I'm down in the camera bay tonight with my toys.

How do you get access to the camera bay?

How do you get access to the camera bay?

You get a photographer's media pass.

Named for Frank

Frank Aaron was a decent cross-country runner, for the Brits, in the late 1940's/early 1950's. COMN.

Your folks are to be commended for the obscurity of the reference.

http://mypage.bluewin.ch/tomtytom/iccu/ath/22537.html
If I am going to be sarcastic, I should at least be competent with the Homepage field. Now COMN.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3099
Baseball Prospectus has their 'Triple Play' feature on the Jays today, with a look at Shawn Marcum. COMN.

This is off-topic, but may be of interest to The Cabal or others here. I just came across this piece of news on a Canadian political blog I read regularly. On August 3rd at the Sheraton in Toronto, there will be a conference on blogging and how it is shaping journalism. Given the success of the Batter's Box and the role it is now playing on the Toronto baseball scene, I thought this might be an event some people here might wish to attend.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/040723rangers.html
Some intersting news out of Texas. With GM Hart coming back in 2005...looks like Grady Fuson will departing (will stay on until the end of the season and which time he will decide on his future).

COMN

Anyone else have any stories about meeting a Jay?

I think in one of the threads yesterday, there was mention of the Open House the Jays had at Skydome last year the Sunday before Opening Day. Fans were able to come in to watch batting practice and to try to get autographs from the players.

I took my sons, then 7 and 8, and had a great time.

The older boy brought a ball and got autographs from Wells, Hinske, Halladay and Woodward. The younger boy was a little more shy and didn't get much at first.

We went over to near 1st base because Delgado has always been the younger boy's favourite. After a few minutes, Carlos tossed him a ball and about 5 minutes later came over and signed it for him.

To this day, it sits on his night table.

Last night in his house league game, he hit two 3-run homers. When I was putting him to bed, he asked me if maybe he should go talk to Carlos to help him out a little bit.

Hey, Marc, if you're at the one tonight look for me in the camera bay and say hi.

Unfortunately I will be at the Sunday afternoon game, but I am looking forward to seeing Bush pitch (who should be the scheduled pitcher).

I thought about getting a media pass to talk to some of the players after the game and write a column about it for my paper, but I don't want to ditch my brother-in-law (he's my ride home). One of these days I'll just go to the Dome and sit up in the press box... It's gotta be an experience all in itself. Plus, I can say hi to Box fave Richard Griffin.

Re: Garth Iorg

When the Blue Jays were playing at Exhibition Stadium, my 14 year old daughter and I were at the fair. We decided to go to the players gate and watch them come in around 3.30. One by one they would walk by. Garth Iorg, her favourite player by far got out of his car and headed for the gate. He saw her face light up and almost faint. He came over to her and said hello and gave her an autograph. It made her year. She still remembers it vividly as I do.

With the pitching trouble the Rangers are having do you guys think they will part with Adrian Gonzalez for either Lilly or Batista.

As I mentioned yesterday in a thread, the Rangers turned down a Benson for Gonzalez trade already, so it's hard to know if Batista or Lilly are better pitchers in the Rangers' eyes... I wouldn't make the trade from the Jays' standpoint (Gonzalez projection: .280-.300 with 15 home runs). Good glove.

http://aaronreynolds.ca
Are you a still photographer or video?

Still. COMN.

And as always I get my right hand and left hand confused -- I intend to spend most of my time on the THIRD base side, beside the Jays dugout. I'm in a red shirt and jeans if you're watching for me.

Spicol, both my pet beagle and I thank you for posting the greatest breed of dog on the page!!!

Are you saying the Hinske looks like a beagle?

Named for Frank:

Which digital cameras do you use?

Hinske, the player, looks like a much tougher and bigger breed of dog...maybe a rottweiler with a nicer disposition than most. I'd just like to use his name for the puppy I will eventually get, which will likely be a beagle.

How I'll keep Hinske from digging under the fence is something I still haven't figured out.

Last night in his house league game, he hit two 3-run homers. When I was putting him to bed, he asked me if maybe he should go talk to Carlos to help him out a little bit.

It can't hurt.....

Those are some awesome photos, NFH. You've got a lot of talent. The picture of... Fenway Park, I'm guessing... with Johnny Damon in the foreground is really impressive. I like how the bank of lights seems to be floating.

Excellent choice Spicol, I am typing this as my faithful beagle hound is chewing on her dingo bone. A finer breed you will never find.

Speaking of Garth Iorg, he would be beagle-esque: smart, quick, and not too big.

Barry Bonds turns 40 tomorrow. Which would be a more appropriate birthday gift for him: 4 home runs or 5 intentional walks?

I think 518 is sold out tonight!?! They told me it was "unavailable" at Rogers Video, where I just bought my tickets to tonight's game. Anyhow, my buddy and I will be in 528 or something.

Hey NFH,

I have a hi-res Hazel Mae picture, could you make a jumbo poster of it? That, I'm certain, would get on Sportsnet.

Snappy website NFH. I wanna know too: what camera are you using? You must have some kinda telescopic lens to get that Batista and Reed Johnson picture. Digital? I bought a Minolta two years ago at 4.0 Megapixels. I'm happy that it hasn't gone obsolete in two years, 4.0 Megapixels is still pretty much the top end of digital cameras (there are 5.0s now though).

I've now completely lost my mind. Following up on my post #45 about the Jays inability to get runners home from 3rd with less than 2 outs (see above for a full explanation), I've now reviewed the gamelogs for the whole season. The results were pretty much as expected. The Jays have faced the situation 194 AB's this season and been successful 101 times (52%). So the bad news is that recently they've been slightly better than they have all season (hard to believe I know). In contrast, the opposition has faced the situation 203 times (much closer to the Jays' total than I was expecting) and been successful 131 times (64.5%). This is slightly lower percentage than the opposition has done recently but still in line with what my subjective expectation would be for a league average (in the 65-70% range). The 12.5% difference over about 200 situations is not statistically insignificant (it does not equate to about 25 runs because some of the situations involved the Jays and opposition leaving a leadoff man at third stranded (and hence were 0 for 2) and does not take into account what happened after 2 men were out). Given this season long data, I have a harder time believing that this is all just the product of bad luck like hitting with RISP because of how consistant it was over the season (for what its worth each individual 30 day period that I analyzed produced almost identical results). I'm still back on the fact that there is something at work here. As Craig said, maybe its just a function of season long bad hitting. I don't doubt that that is at play here, but given that many many of the problems are a function of strikeouts in these circumstances, I think something else is at fault.

The situations where the Jays went 0 for 2 definately have to be counted since they essentially gave up two opportunities to score eventhough it may have been only one run on the line. It could be a symptom of very poor hitting, very poor hitters getting those opportunities, or tremendously bad luck.

Bad luck to that degree doesn't seem plausible. I think the Jays' hitting has just been THAT bad as the last few games will attest.

RBillie - they are counted as 0 for 2 in my math because both are failied opportunities to score as you say. I was only indicating that you can't do simple math and say that the difference between the Jays' success rate and their opponents translates into 25 runs because a few of the situations relate to one runner.

I agree that underlying this is bad hitting. What I find so difficult to understand is that these situations don't require good hitting. They simply require an ability to make contact in most cases. What's even more troubling is that the numbers don't differ between when the line-up has been healthy or not. It's been constant all year.

Keith, lets watch the line between fan and obsessive. It's a non-issue talking about how a person in the media does their job but this continual Hazel Mae picture thing makes me uneasy. She's doing her job, which includes being friendly, but not an object (I understand that's slightly debateable but lets just pretend our Pena is somewhat enlightened). Further, this place, during the 95% of the time we do talk baseball, is generally talking baseball at a level higher than the guy you sit next to on the streetcar. With the inferences about Hazel Mae, I'd say it compromises the integrity of anything else said on the boards.

I'm sure everyone at Da Box is thrilled you got your picture but keep it under your (metaphorical) pillow. Thanks.

he asked me if maybe he should go talk to Carlos to help him out a little bit.

Maybe he can give a seminar to the whole offense

I'm sure everyone at Da Box is thrilled you got your picture but keep it under your (metaphorical) pillow.

150 million points to A for using metaphorical, instead of incorrectly using proverbial as people often do. I'll even throw in this incomprehensible (to me) Russian poster:



Enjoy!

Which digital cameras do you use?

None. I'm not impressed with the results of any digital cameras in the sub $40,000 range currently, and I can't afford the ones that I think are okay. And even still, the ones that are okay and really expensive are still not that great. However, I have shuttered my chemical colour darkroom and replaced it with high resolution scanners and big archival pigment printers. That's where digital really kicks the ass of chemical photography. But on the shooting end, the advantage still goes to film.

90% of the stuff on my site was shot with a Pentax 67, which was also what I was shooting with tonight. It's my baby.

KT, yes, I can make you a giant Hazel Mae print. And the Batista and Reed shots were with my 35mm, a Pentax ME Super, and a 200mm f2.8 lens. I don't own any longer lenses for my 67 because they're insanely expensive and I'm not rich, but I rented one for tonight, because I figured I might as well make the most of it while I'm down in the camera bay.

I'll have new images up some time on Monday. Thanks for the compliments, gentlemen.

Keith, lets watch the line between fan and obsessive. It's a non-issue talking about how a person in the media does their job but this continual Hazel Mae picture thing makes me uneasy. She's doing her job, which includes being friendly, but not an object...

Dear A,

Thank you for your condescending "lets watch the line" warning. "Lets watch out and not make any comment someone could misconstrue for sexism. Better keep your mouth shut even though you feel that by taking a risk you could cause a few laughs, it's better to keep that thought to yourself." Well screw that. Pardon the Keithster for trying to inject a little levity in your daily routine. And by this comment it seems you're the one making her sex an issue, making her an object. I, for one, would find a picture of Warren Savkiw grinning and staring in a picture just as funny.

So you go on brooding and feeling uneasy, and I'll keep on grinning, and we'll see who lives longer.

If we always have to ginerly step around female media icons, just because they're women; if that really is the case, then that's an admission they're not equal to their male counterparts.

That my fun with the Hazel Mae picture has the implication of a trashy, Maxim magazine-style bimbo sexism is a leap you made all by yourself. It's a shame these sexist stereotypes still exist and that they need to put a ban on fun.

If we're to debate the particulars on this, you did suggest that by offering herself for a photo, she was flirting with you. Like it or not, that has a sexual overtone to it. So in fact, it was you, not me, that made this sexual. Truly, that's the entire reason this is an issue. If you had found a way to incorporate the photo in a genuinely humourous way, I wouldn't take issue with it. Instead, while the thread began to discuss female sports reporters, you decided you had an opportunity to pipe up about this experience...Yet women in sports media have enough trouble being accepted as equals to their male counterparts already, why perpetuate it?

If a male in that position had done the same thing, chances are it would never have been posted in the same manner -- he'd have been a good guy and nothing more. Mae's job is to be the friendly face of the show just like any other host, so why not offer a photo once in a while?

And in the event she was flirting with you, I don't see how it's relevant for posting here. The effect of something like that on her may be greater than you've considered...Think she needs guys in the pressbox egging her on about flirting with some guy who posts at BB under Keith Talent?

you did suggest that by offering herself for a photo, she was flirting with you. Like it or not, that has a sexual overtone to it.

That's called humour. And I was setting myself up for some good-natured ribbing. And the sexual overtone of that story is of the same level of a female fan who might blush if Mike Toth said 'hello' to her in an elevator. It's completely innocent.

I am utterly dismayed by your humourlessness. There was nothing derogatory towards Hazel, or woman professionals in general, in my "piping up" about my experience. Like a lot of us, I use Da Box to kill the slow time at work. I enjoy it. So if I see an opportunity to talk about something that I think might be fun, I'm going to take it. Hazel Mae's name pops up, I'm gonna spin my little story, and not hold back because some humourless soul out there might be patrolling trying to take the colour out of life. And it's not like I went running with the story as soon as it happened to me. I had that Hazel encounter over two months ago. Something in the thread happened that made me think of it.

If after what I wrote other individuals began to question whether Hazel really knew anything about baseball, that is beyond my control. And it is sad that people automatically assume a woman professional in sports is only there because of her looks. But I know that sentiment did not come from my post because I don't feel that in the slightest. I have the highest respect for Hazel. She has a deep understanding of sports and can give commentary in a breezy, expert way.

It seems your real issue is with style.

When I write:

I swear Hazel Mae was hitting on me before a Jays game once! I had a camera in my hand and she came over, shook my hand, asked my name (I nearly forgot my name when she asked), then asked to pose in a picture for me. And she did. I still have it. I wish I could post it here but it's at home.

it's obvious what really happened: that Hazel is a real professional, loves what she does, and mingles with the fans as part of her job. But if I post:

Hazel Mae is a real professional, loves what she does, and mingles with the fans as part of her job.

it's something her mother could have written about her. What I write communicates the very same thing to discerning readers which, you have correctly pointed out, Da Box consists of. It goes a step further because the writer of the first post is obviously a silly, goofy man people should make a target of, as an object of fun. I never dreamed I'd be targeted as an object of misogyny.

Finally, A, I take offence most at your self-appointed position to judge what compromises the integrity of anything else said on the boards. That's just a really pompous thing to say.

I can't be sure what was intended but the results were the same. If you don't view that as sexist then we've just demonstrated the systemic nature of sexism. It has nothing to do with playing "judge". It's taking responsibility for what happens in my community (yes, there is a sense of ownership that statement but it's just as much your community).

The point in bringing this up wasn't to scream from the top of the mountain that Keith Talent is sexist. But if no one says anything, how are you going to know the joke has substantially negative implications? I know my judgement isn't always what I'd like it to be and I rely on others to let me know when I've over-stepped a boundary.

All I have so add is that I didn't get a sexist overtone from Keith Talent's story and picture about Hazel Mae.

I hope that you'll take Keith at his word that he doesn't feel that way about women in sports jounalism, or women in general.

Consequently, we can go back to baseball.

So we'll leave it at that then. The Hazel Mae story is getting old anyway.