TWiB takes a look at Chone Figgins, an interesting story in the Seattle bullpen and a new but familiar face in the Mets rotation.
This Week in Baseball: July 12th-18th
TWiB takes a look at Chone Figgins, an interesting story in the Seattle bullpen and a new but familiar face in the Mets rotation.
1. Chone Figgins continues to triple at record pace.
Stats in this section are as of the All-Star break.
In his article in the September 29, 2003 issue of Sports Illustrated Roy Blount Jr. waxes poetic on the triple. Blount states, “A triple is absolutely the most exciting 12 seconds in sports and here is why it still is, though it seems to be fading away.” I agree with Blout in that triples are tremendously titillating, and the stats do show that they are becoming much rarer, compared to thirty or sixty years ago.
I agree with Blount on another point he makes, in that triples are a beautiful thing to watch live, where you get a great perspective of everything going on in the play, something you don’t usually get on TV. At the ballpark you’re able to see the runner rounding second, while the outfielder picks up the ball, and the cutoff man lines himself up for the relay throw. Another exciting thing to watch is the runner realising that he could get a triple on the hit, and then turning himself into the highest gear he has as he round first. Triples are one of the most exciting plays in baseball, and their rarity adds to the achievement nowadays. Even SkyDome crowds seem to love and acknowledge the triple, and I’ll see some people stand up to applaud the triple, even when there’s nobody on base (although I’m still not convinced I’m not imagining that).
I can’t help but cringe as Blount uses his article to take cheapshots at Billy Beane, the Moneyball offence, statistical analysis and Jeremy Brown. I enjoyed Blount’s piece, but I get irritated seeing people blame everyone’s favourite scapegoat for anything that upsets traditionalists.
Beane’s offensive strategy does seem place less emphasis on speed than most other GM’s would, and one is likely to have less triples with slower players. As much as I enjoy seeing triples, I enjoy winning more and if you’re going to end up hitting less triples than you might like, but the end result will be more wins, so be it. Beane seems to believe speed in overvalued by many, and thus it isn’t a smart investment for a small-market ballclub, and so far he’s been successful in his approach. Plus, I’d wager there’s an extremely weak correlation, if there’s any, between how many triples a team hits and how successful they are. Last year, Florida was 4th in baseball and the Yankees were 30th, and they met in the World Series. It’s a shame Blount ruins an otherwise interesting and enjoyable article by forcing in criticism of Beane and his ilk.
Enough of that, why am I talking about triples and what does that have to do with Chone Figgins? Figgins has 13 triples through 75 games so far for the Anaheim Angels. If Figgins was a team himself, this would tie him for eighteenth in baseball with the White Sox and Reds (well, 17th, since without Figgins the Angels would drop from the tied-for-third-best total of 25 to 12). It’s not quite like Barry and his intentional walks, but nothing’s like Barry.
Figgins’s 13 triples obviously lead the majors, and the third-best total is Carlos Guillen’s 7. Chone is beating the second-place Carl Crawford by 30%, and looks like he could be on a record-setting pace. Heck, he’s already tied Anaheim’s single-season record.
Here are the top single-season triple totals since 1940.
This gives a good indication of the scarcity of triples in the latter half of the last century. It also shows you what kind of historic season Figgins is putting up, with barely any kind of attention at all. If Figgins continue his pace, and plays all of Anaheim’s remaining games, he will finish the season with 26 triples. That total would rank as tied for the ninth-best total of all time, and it would also be tied for the second-highest total since 1900, behind Chief Wilson’s single-season record of 36 in 1912.
Now we know what roughly Figgins is on pace for, the question becomes, can Figgins maintain that pace, and can we refine this prediction? Assuming he doesn’t injure himself, we’ll see what we can come up with. The Angels have played 87 games so far, meaning they have exactly 75 games left on the season. With Troy Glaus out for the year, Figgins has become the almost everyday third baseman for the Angels, and he is well-known for his versatility. In the last month, Figgins has played in 25 of Anaheim’s 27 games.
The only other option for third base on the major-league roster is Shane Halter and his .619 OPS. They also have Dallas McPherson in Salt Lake (AAA) who is hitting .355/.414/.903 in 62 AB. McPherson had just over 250 Abs in Arkansas (AA), where he hit .321/.404/.603 before promotion. McPherson’s major league equivalent average is .317, with an 11.5 RARP. The only reason McPherson wouldn’t warrant a promotion is if there is some concrete skill he needs to work on, and he’d be better served working on that in Salt Lake , and there certainly doesn’t appear that there is. Still, I’m not convinced the Angels will promote McPherson until mid-August at the earliest, and even then I think they’ll give Figgins a fair amount of playing time at both third, centre field, and wherever else they can find a roster spot for him. He’s very versatile, he’s hitting well and I’ve seen several interviews where Angels management has spoken very highly of him.
So let’s estimate that Figgins plays in 65 of the remaining 75 Angel games. With his current ratio of a triple every 5.8 games, that’s another 11 triples on the season. That brings his season total down to 24, which is still the highest total since 1940.
The other thing to consider are the ballparks Figgins will be playing in over the second half, and how they might affect his triple total. Using 2004 park factors for triples (strong caveats obviously strongly apply if one is using a half-season of park factors) Edison Field is a measly 0.583, where 1.000 means the ballpark is average. Almost half as many triples are hit in Edison field as there would be at an average ballpark, which also speaks to Figgins’ triple-hitting prowess, and his ability to turn doubles into triples with raw speed.
Of the twelve ballparks Anaheim played in before the All-Star break, 4 of them had a triple factor of over 1.000. Comparatively, of the nine cities that they will play in after the break, only two of them have an above-average triple factor. However, one of those ballparks is Kauffman Field, which has a triple factor of 2.496, and has also historically been a very good place to hit triples at, so this number is not a large aberration.
I decided to compare the average ballpark for Figgins both before and after the ASB, so I multiplied each park’s triple factor by the number of games played there, added them all up and divided it by the number of games played before the break, or to be played after the break. The average ballpark for Anaheim before the break had a triple factor of 0.796, and afterwards it has a triple factor of 0.765.
So how will this affect projections for Figgins this half? Well, in 75 games Figgins hit 13 triples in a park with factor 0.792. So, if we multiply the park factor by games played and divide it by his triple total, Figgins hit a triple every 5.05 park neutral games. Multiplying 65 estimated remaining games played by a park factor of .765 and dividing it by 5.05 (his neutral park triple ratio), we get an estimated 9.85 triples for Figgins after the ASB. That’s a total of 22.85 triples on the season, slightly down from the 24 earlier assumed if he was playing in the same set of ballparks.
Barring injury or a potentially justified encounter with Dallas McPherson, I estimate Figgins will finish the season with 20 triples. I have deducted almost three, as I don’t see him continuing the torrid pace he is on. While projecting things accurately is useful, you still must consider the likelihood of continuing a certain pace in itself. Delgado’s RBI total last year at the All-Star Break is an example that pops into mind. Regardless of the Jays schedule before and after the break, I don’t think any purely mathematical adjustment would have reduced his projections to 145, considering the 97 at the break.
I’ll revisit this projection at year’s end, to see how Figgins ends up, and if he reaches 23 I’ll claim mathematic accuracy. Three series to watch for are July 21-22 at Texas, August 6-9 at Kansas City and September 27-30 at Texas. These are the two stadiums he plays with above average triple factors, and if he doesn’t hit some in these series, he’ll find it very tough the rest of the way. K.C. has the second-highest triple park factor in the majors, and highest in the American League at 2.496, and the Angels’ four games there will be quite important to determining his year-end triple totals, which regardless of whether or not he meets various projections, should be one of the highest in recent years.
Postscript:
All those stats were calculated as of the ASB. In his first 4 games since coming off the break, Figgins has no triples.
2. The Mariners promote George Sherrill to the major leagues.
A few days ago the Seattle Mariners, in another sign Bill Bavasi may be coming to at least some of his senses, continued to dismantle their club and rebuild with an eye towards the future. On July 15th the Mariners designated Pat Borders and John Olerud for assignment, and promoted Bucky Jacobsen and George Sherrill from Triple-A Tacoma. One can debate whether Olerud deserved to get sent down considering his OBP, and considering Willie Bloomquist’s continued presence on the bench, but it was time to find out what Jacobsen and Sherill can do. And the latter has one of the most interesting stories you’re likely to come across this year in baseball.
George Sherrill, a left-handed pitcher born on April 19, 1977, was not drafted in the coming out of Austin Peay State, where he spent two years after having transferred from Jackson State Community College. He put up some good stats, but they were nothing spectacular, especially considering he was a reliever and that he doesn’t sell jeans. Still, determined not to give up on a career in baseball, Sherrill signed with Evansville Otters of the Frontier League. Sherrill pitched with Evansville in 1999 and 2000, and then moved to the Sioux Falls Canaries of the Northern League for 2001. In 2002 Sherrill pitched for the Winnipeg Goldeyes of the same league, and that’s where he began 2003.
In July of 2003 Seattle signed Sherrill to a contract, and assigned him to Double-A San Antonio. The Yankees were also looking at Sherrill, but they wanted to send him to Single-A Tampa, so Sherrill decided he had a better future in the Mariners organisation. Sherrill had pitched 16 innings for Winnipeg that year, allowing 8 hits, 4 walks and 2 runs, while amassing 30 strikeouts.
Sherrill pitched 27.1 innings for San Antonio in 2003, finishing the year with a 0.33 ERA. He allowed 19 hits, 12 walks and one earned run, on a home run. Sherrill also struck out 31 batters, adapting to the minor leagues quite well. Sherill continued his busy 2003 by pitching well for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League and Mayaguez in the Puerto Rican Winter League; however, he only pitched about 20 innings total between the two leagues.
This year Sherrill was assigned to Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League. So far this season he has a 4-2 record and a 2.32 ERA in 50.1 innings pitched. He’s allowed 42 hits, 9 walks and 4 home runs in those innings, while striking out 62. He was also named the Pacific Coast League’s relief pitcher of the month for June.
About a year after being signed out of the Independent League with no minor or major league baseball experience, Sherrill became the 29th player to ever make it to the bigs from the Northern League. He is one of the fastest ever to make it to the big leagues (J.D. Drew would be the fastest, I would imagine), and if he manages to pitched the rest of the season, would already have carved out of the more significant careers from that list. Famous alumni of the Northern League include Drew, Kevin Millar, Scott Stewart, Jeff Zimmerman, Darryl Strawberry and Rey Ordonez. The only Blue Jay to ever play in the league was Luis Lopez, the R. Howard Webster award winner in Syracuse in 1999 and 2001. Lopez was a first baseman without enough power to play first or DH in the majors, and he couldn’t field well enough to play anywhere else.
Sherrill, who is not a great physical specimen, has shed 20 pounds off his frame over the last year, or so, and is down to 228 pounds. A left-hander with the David Wells physique, Sherrill has a good pick-off move, and entered two games for Austin Peay State and never threw a pitch to earn the save, catching runners leaning the wrong way instead. I’ve read he has a high release point, and he comes at the batters over the top, instead of from the side or a three-quarters delivery, but I can’t verify that. Sherill’s rapid rise is quite remarkable, and makes him somebody that you can’t help but root for. Bucky Jacobsen has grabbed a lot of the media attention with his fan club and monstrous year at Triple-A, but I’m much more interested in seeing how Sherrill does.
There are few compelling reasons to watch the Mariners in the second half. Travis Blackley and Clint Nageotte, if he gets recalled from Tacoma, are two of them. Justin Leone, who is getting the chance he deserves in the majors, is another, and people seem to love Bucky Jacobsen for any number of reasons. However, the story of George Sherrill may just be the most compelling of all.
3. Scott Erickson is called up to make the Monday start for the Mets.
There was a time when Scott Erickson was an effective big league pitcher, but that time was shorter than I thought it was. In his first three big-league seasons, spanning about 500 innings, Erickson had ERAs of 2.87, 3.18 and 3.40. He had a 20-win season in 1991 for the Twins, when they won that classic World Series over the Atlanta Braves. Erickson’s numbers, aside from his ERAs aren’t that impressive, with a low K/IP ratio and a low K/BB ratio.
For example, in his 1991 season Erickson threw 204 innings. He struck out 4.76 batters per 9 innings and he had a K/BB ratio of 1.52. Out of the 96 starters who qualify this year, Erickson’s rates would have had him tied for 76th in terms of K/9 with John Lackey, and his K/BB ratio would rank him 74th in the majors. Some effective starters can be found below those rates on either stat, but they are usually very good on the other variable (Tim Hudson and David Wells, to name two). The only starters to have worse rates on both stats are Brett Tomko, Jimmy Gobble, Josh Fogg, Steve Sparks, Mark Hendrickson, Ismael Valdez, Kirk Reuter, Kaz Ishii and Derek Lowe. Mostly that’s a list of back-end of the rotation starters and guys having bad seasons. Ishii is doing reasonably well, but his win total is still misleading, and Hendrickson must be succeeding in spite of himself, and getting very lucky.
Back to Erickson, red flags should have appeared alongside his early success, and in his next three seasons Erickson’s accumulated ERAs in the 5’s. He almost lost 20 games in 1993, falling one game short of killing what was then Brian Kingman’s claim to fame. Erickson allowed more hits in these next three seasons, but other than that the stats aren’t noticeably different from the numbers of his first three seasons. Through his next seven seasons in Baltimore Erickson ranged from slightly above average to poor, while battling injuries his last few years there.
He has completed a comeback of sorts, and has managed to pitch well enough to persuade the Mets into giving him a shot in their rotation in the second half of the season. The question is whether this is a wise move for the Mets to make.
Here are Erickson’s accumulated stats from his last three seasons in the majors (1999, 2000, 2002)
This is hardly the measure of an effective major-league starter, and if I was in the middle of the playoff race, this is not someone who I’d want to hand the ball to every fifth day. A second question to address is whether Erickson is the best option the Mets have available, at this point. Here’s a look at their main starters for AAA Norfolk:
Jeremy Griffiths was not included as he was dealt to Houston. Well, Bob Keppel is clearly not a better answer, I don’t think Pat Strange is either and Heilman likely needs more time to develop. However, Ginter and Keisler deserve a closer look, and additionally, Ginter is the one being shuttled out to make space for Erickson.
Let’s do another comparison:
Okay, I got kind of lazy here, and put these numbers in many different rows, but I think it can also help to prove my point, in a way. Any number 1 is what that player is doing this year in AAA (familiar rows), and the number 2’s are what Ginter and Keisler have done in their career at AAA. The third Ginter row is his stats this year, at the major league level. Ginter’s AAA numbers are better than Erickson’s AAA numbers this season; his AAA career is better than Erickson’s numbers, and his major league numbers are comparable to what Erickson is doing at AAA. Keisler holds the same advantage over Erickson in terms of 2004, and his career.
Now, Keisler’s pitched pretty badly in the majors in 60-odd innings, and Ginter’s not been great in his 105 pre-2004 innings. Keisler’s problems mostly stem from an atrocious walk rate in the majors, and I’m not sure why this occurs. Most reports indicate he’s got three good pitches, and he’s done well at AAA, both this year and for his career, considering it was sandwiched around missing a year due to injury. Perhaps he loses confidence in his stuff at the majors, and doesn’t challenge hitters like he does at Triple-A? I’m not sure why Keisler doesn’t pitch well in the majors so far, but I’d still be willing to give him a shot over Erickson.
The real question is why the Mets are dissatisfied with Ginter’s 5.13 K/9 ratio, 1.94 K/BB ratio and 4.80 ERA out of the number five hole in the rotation. Erickson’s numbers are AAA are okay, but nothing great, and pale in comparison to Matt Ginter’s 2004, and career, AAA numbers. These numbers are also better than what Erickson did in his last three years in the majors.
Maybe Rick Peterson thinks he’s seen something in Erickson that would indicate he will be successful up here; something that he perhaps didn’t have during those years he was struggling with injury. If he has, that’s an opinion I would give a lot of weight towards.
However, it seems more likely this a case of trying to give a proven name a shot, as a young player hasn’t put up eye-opening numbers, and I think it’s a mistake. Ginter deserves to stay in the rotation, and I personally would have given a 28-year old Keisler the shot over 35-year old Erickson, as well. Seeing as Ginter’s is a basically a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and hard slider) another option I would have considered, if the Mets are serious about chasing a playoff spot this year, is bringing in an outside pitcher (or promoting Keisler for a few games if you have a stretch where a lefty pitcher matches well against several teams) and demoting Ginter to the pen. As effective as Orber Moreno, Ricky Bottalico and Jose Parra have been, I don’t foresee all three of them keeping this up, and Ginter could replace the weak link there.
If Erickson has a great second half, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong, but I expect he’ll have several below-average starts, at which point the Mets will either bring in another pitcher, promote Ginter again or will realize that Erickson’s been a large part of the reason they are now truly on the outskirts of a crowded pennant race, at which point they would be smart to bring up some young pitchers like Ginter and Heath Bell, anyway. Ultimately, I believe this move, if they give Erickson more than a couple of starts, could cost the Mets whatever slim chance they have remaining of capturing a playoff spot.
This Week in Baseball: July 12th-18th
TWiB takes a look at Chone Figgins, an interesting story in the Seattle bullpen and a new but familiar face in the Mets rotation.
1. Chone Figgins continues to triple at record pace.
Stats in this section are as of the All-Star break.
In his article in the September 29, 2003 issue of Sports Illustrated Roy Blount Jr. waxes poetic on the triple. Blount states, “A triple is absolutely the most exciting 12 seconds in sports and here is why it still is, though it seems to be fading away.” I agree with Blout in that triples are tremendously titillating, and the stats do show that they are becoming much rarer, compared to thirty or sixty years ago.
I agree with Blount on another point he makes, in that triples are a beautiful thing to watch live, where you get a great perspective of everything going on in the play, something you don’t usually get on TV. At the ballpark you’re able to see the runner rounding second, while the outfielder picks up the ball, and the cutoff man lines himself up for the relay throw. Another exciting thing to watch is the runner realising that he could get a triple on the hit, and then turning himself into the highest gear he has as he round first. Triples are one of the most exciting plays in baseball, and their rarity adds to the achievement nowadays. Even SkyDome crowds seem to love and acknowledge the triple, and I’ll see some people stand up to applaud the triple, even when there’s nobody on base (although I’m still not convinced I’m not imagining that).
I can’t help but cringe as Blount uses his article to take cheapshots at Billy Beane, the Moneyball offence, statistical analysis and Jeremy Brown. I enjoyed Blount’s piece, but I get irritated seeing people blame everyone’s favourite scapegoat for anything that upsets traditionalists.
Beane’s offensive strategy does seem place less emphasis on speed than most other GM’s would, and one is likely to have less triples with slower players. As much as I enjoy seeing triples, I enjoy winning more and if you’re going to end up hitting less triples than you might like, but the end result will be more wins, so be it. Beane seems to believe speed in overvalued by many, and thus it isn’t a smart investment for a small-market ballclub, and so far he’s been successful in his approach. Plus, I’d wager there’s an extremely weak correlation, if there’s any, between how many triples a team hits and how successful they are. Last year, Florida was 4th in baseball and the Yankees were 30th, and they met in the World Series. It’s a shame Blount ruins an otherwise interesting and enjoyable article by forcing in criticism of Beane and his ilk.
Enough of that, why am I talking about triples and what does that have to do with Chone Figgins? Figgins has 13 triples through 75 games so far for the Anaheim Angels. If Figgins was a team himself, this would tie him for eighteenth in baseball with the White Sox and Reds (well, 17th, since without Figgins the Angels would drop from the tied-for-third-best total of 25 to 12). It’s not quite like Barry and his intentional walks, but nothing’s like Barry.
Figgins’s 13 triples obviously lead the majors, and the third-best total is Carlos Guillen’s 7. Chone is beating the second-place Carl Crawford by 30%, and looks like he could be on a record-setting pace. Heck, he’s already tied Anaheim’s single-season record.
Here are the top single-season triple totals since 1940.
Player Triples Year
Dale Mitchell 23 1949
Stuffy Stirnweiss 22 1945
Lance Johnson 21 1996
Willie Wilson 21 1985
George Brett 20 1979
Cristian Guzman 20 2000
Jeff Heath 20 1941
Willie Mays 20 1957
Stan Musial 20 1943
Stan Musial 20 1946
This gives a good indication of the scarcity of triples in the latter half of the last century. It also shows you what kind of historic season Figgins is putting up, with barely any kind of attention at all. If Figgins continue his pace, and plays all of Anaheim’s remaining games, he will finish the season with 26 triples. That total would rank as tied for the ninth-best total of all time, and it would also be tied for the second-highest total since 1900, behind Chief Wilson’s single-season record of 36 in 1912.
Now we know what roughly Figgins is on pace for, the question becomes, can Figgins maintain that pace, and can we refine this prediction? Assuming he doesn’t injure himself, we’ll see what we can come up with. The Angels have played 87 games so far, meaning they have exactly 75 games left on the season. With Troy Glaus out for the year, Figgins has become the almost everyday third baseman for the Angels, and he is well-known for his versatility. In the last month, Figgins has played in 25 of Anaheim’s 27 games.
The only other option for third base on the major-league roster is Shane Halter and his .619 OPS. They also have Dallas McPherson in Salt Lake (AAA) who is hitting .355/.414/.903 in 62 AB. McPherson had just over 250 Abs in Arkansas (AA), where he hit .321/.404/.603 before promotion. McPherson’s major league equivalent average is .317, with an 11.5 RARP. The only reason McPherson wouldn’t warrant a promotion is if there is some concrete skill he needs to work on, and he’d be better served working on that in Salt Lake , and there certainly doesn’t appear that there is. Still, I’m not convinced the Angels will promote McPherson until mid-August at the earliest, and even then I think they’ll give Figgins a fair amount of playing time at both third, centre field, and wherever else they can find a roster spot for him. He’s very versatile, he’s hitting well and I’ve seen several interviews where Angels management has spoken very highly of him.
So let’s estimate that Figgins plays in 65 of the remaining 75 Angel games. With his current ratio of a triple every 5.8 games, that’s another 11 triples on the season. That brings his season total down to 24, which is still the highest total since 1940.
The other thing to consider are the ballparks Figgins will be playing in over the second half, and how they might affect his triple total. Using 2004 park factors for triples (strong caveats obviously strongly apply if one is using a half-season of park factors) Edison Field is a measly 0.583, where 1.000 means the ballpark is average. Almost half as many triples are hit in Edison field as there would be at an average ballpark, which also speaks to Figgins’ triple-hitting prowess, and his ability to turn doubles into triples with raw speed.
Of the twelve ballparks Anaheim played in before the All-Star break, 4 of them had a triple factor of over 1.000. Comparatively, of the nine cities that they will play in after the break, only two of them have an above-average triple factor. However, one of those ballparks is Kauffman Field, which has a triple factor of 2.496, and has also historically been a very good place to hit triples at, so this number is not a large aberration.
I decided to compare the average ballpark for Figgins both before and after the ASB, so I multiplied each park’s triple factor by the number of games played there, added them all up and divided it by the number of games played before the break, or to be played after the break. The average ballpark for Anaheim before the break had a triple factor of 0.796, and afterwards it has a triple factor of 0.765.
So how will this affect projections for Figgins this half? Well, in 75 games Figgins hit 13 triples in a park with factor 0.792. So, if we multiply the park factor by games played and divide it by his triple total, Figgins hit a triple every 5.05 park neutral games. Multiplying 65 estimated remaining games played by a park factor of .765 and dividing it by 5.05 (his neutral park triple ratio), we get an estimated 9.85 triples for Figgins after the ASB. That’s a total of 22.85 triples on the season, slightly down from the 24 earlier assumed if he was playing in the same set of ballparks.
Barring injury or a potentially justified encounter with Dallas McPherson, I estimate Figgins will finish the season with 20 triples. I have deducted almost three, as I don’t see him continuing the torrid pace he is on. While projecting things accurately is useful, you still must consider the likelihood of continuing a certain pace in itself. Delgado’s RBI total last year at the All-Star Break is an example that pops into mind. Regardless of the Jays schedule before and after the break, I don’t think any purely mathematical adjustment would have reduced his projections to 145, considering the 97 at the break.
I’ll revisit this projection at year’s end, to see how Figgins ends up, and if he reaches 23 I’ll claim mathematic accuracy. Three series to watch for are July 21-22 at Texas, August 6-9 at Kansas City and September 27-30 at Texas. These are the two stadiums he plays with above average triple factors, and if he doesn’t hit some in these series, he’ll find it very tough the rest of the way. K.C. has the second-highest triple park factor in the majors, and highest in the American League at 2.496, and the Angels’ four games there will be quite important to determining his year-end triple totals, which regardless of whether or not he meets various projections, should be one of the highest in recent years.
Postscript:
All those stats were calculated as of the ASB. In his first 4 games since coming off the break, Figgins has no triples.
2. The Mariners promote George Sherrill to the major leagues.
A few days ago the Seattle Mariners, in another sign Bill Bavasi may be coming to at least some of his senses, continued to dismantle their club and rebuild with an eye towards the future. On July 15th the Mariners designated Pat Borders and John Olerud for assignment, and promoted Bucky Jacobsen and George Sherrill from Triple-A Tacoma. One can debate whether Olerud deserved to get sent down considering his OBP, and considering Willie Bloomquist’s continued presence on the bench, but it was time to find out what Jacobsen and Sherill can do. And the latter has one of the most interesting stories you’re likely to come across this year in baseball.
George Sherrill, a left-handed pitcher born on April 19, 1977, was not drafted in the coming out of Austin Peay State, where he spent two years after having transferred from Jackson State Community College. He put up some good stats, but they were nothing spectacular, especially considering he was a reliever and that he doesn’t sell jeans. Still, determined not to give up on a career in baseball, Sherrill signed with Evansville Otters of the Frontier League. Sherrill pitched with Evansville in 1999 and 2000, and then moved to the Sioux Falls Canaries of the Northern League for 2001. In 2002 Sherrill pitched for the Winnipeg Goldeyes of the same league, and that’s where he began 2003.
In July of 2003 Seattle signed Sherrill to a contract, and assigned him to Double-A San Antonio. The Yankees were also looking at Sherrill, but they wanted to send him to Single-A Tampa, so Sherrill decided he had a better future in the Mariners organisation. Sherrill had pitched 16 innings for Winnipeg that year, allowing 8 hits, 4 walks and 2 runs, while amassing 30 strikeouts.
Sherrill pitched 27.1 innings for San Antonio in 2003, finishing the year with a 0.33 ERA. He allowed 19 hits, 12 walks and one earned run, on a home run. Sherrill also struck out 31 batters, adapting to the minor leagues quite well. Sherill continued his busy 2003 by pitching well for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League and Mayaguez in the Puerto Rican Winter League; however, he only pitched about 20 innings total between the two leagues.
This year Sherrill was assigned to Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League. So far this season he has a 4-2 record and a 2.32 ERA in 50.1 innings pitched. He’s allowed 42 hits, 9 walks and 4 home runs in those innings, while striking out 62. He was also named the Pacific Coast League’s relief pitcher of the month for June.
About a year after being signed out of the Independent League with no minor or major league baseball experience, Sherrill became the 29th player to ever make it to the bigs from the Northern League. He is one of the fastest ever to make it to the big leagues (J.D. Drew would be the fastest, I would imagine), and if he manages to pitched the rest of the season, would already have carved out of the more significant careers from that list. Famous alumni of the Northern League include Drew, Kevin Millar, Scott Stewart, Jeff Zimmerman, Darryl Strawberry and Rey Ordonez. The only Blue Jay to ever play in the league was Luis Lopez, the R. Howard Webster award winner in Syracuse in 1999 and 2001. Lopez was a first baseman without enough power to play first or DH in the majors, and he couldn’t field well enough to play anywhere else.
Sherrill, who is not a great physical specimen, has shed 20 pounds off his frame over the last year, or so, and is down to 228 pounds. A left-hander with the David Wells physique, Sherrill has a good pick-off move, and entered two games for Austin Peay State and never threw a pitch to earn the save, catching runners leaning the wrong way instead. I’ve read he has a high release point, and he comes at the batters over the top, instead of from the side or a three-quarters delivery, but I can’t verify that. Sherill’s rapid rise is quite remarkable, and makes him somebody that you can’t help but root for. Bucky Jacobsen has grabbed a lot of the media attention with his fan club and monstrous year at Triple-A, but I’m much more interested in seeing how Sherrill does.
There are few compelling reasons to watch the Mariners in the second half. Travis Blackley and Clint Nageotte, if he gets recalled from Tacoma, are two of them. Justin Leone, who is getting the chance he deserves in the majors, is another, and people seem to love Bucky Jacobsen for any number of reasons. However, the story of George Sherrill may just be the most compelling of all.
3. Scott Erickson is called up to make the Monday start for the Mets.
There was a time when Scott Erickson was an effective big league pitcher, but that time was shorter than I thought it was. In his first three big-league seasons, spanning about 500 innings, Erickson had ERAs of 2.87, 3.18 and 3.40. He had a 20-win season in 1991 for the Twins, when they won that classic World Series over the Atlanta Braves. Erickson’s numbers, aside from his ERAs aren’t that impressive, with a low K/IP ratio and a low K/BB ratio.
For example, in his 1991 season Erickson threw 204 innings. He struck out 4.76 batters per 9 innings and he had a K/BB ratio of 1.52. Out of the 96 starters who qualify this year, Erickson’s rates would have had him tied for 76th in terms of K/9 with John Lackey, and his K/BB ratio would rank him 74th in the majors. Some effective starters can be found below those rates on either stat, but they are usually very good on the other variable (Tim Hudson and David Wells, to name two). The only starters to have worse rates on both stats are Brett Tomko, Jimmy Gobble, Josh Fogg, Steve Sparks, Mark Hendrickson, Ismael Valdez, Kirk Reuter, Kaz Ishii and Derek Lowe. Mostly that’s a list of back-end of the rotation starters and guys having bad seasons. Ishii is doing reasonably well, but his win total is still misleading, and Hendrickson must be succeeding in spite of himself, and getting very lucky.
Back to Erickson, red flags should have appeared alongside his early success, and in his next three seasons Erickson’s accumulated ERAs in the 5’s. He almost lost 20 games in 1993, falling one game short of killing what was then Brian Kingman’s claim to fame. Erickson allowed more hits in these next three seasons, but other than that the stats aren’t noticeably different from the numbers of his first three seasons. Through his next seven seasons in Baltimore Erickson ranged from slightly above average to poor, while battling injuries his last few years there.
He has completed a comeback of sorts, and has managed to pitch well enough to persuade the Mets into giving him a shot in their rotation in the second half of the season. The question is whether this is a wise move for the Mets to make.
Here are Erickson’s accumulated stats from his last three seasons in the majors (1999, 2000, 2002)
IP H HR BB K ERA K/9 K/BB HR/9
Erickson 483.2 563 61 215 221 5.64 4.11 1.03 1.14
This is hardly the measure of an effective major-league starter, and if I was in the middle of the playoff race, this is not someone who I’d want to hand the ball to every fifth day. A second question to address is whether Erickson is the best option the Mets have available, at this point. Here’s a look at their main starters for AAA Norfolk:
IP H HR BB K ERA K/9 K/BB HR/9
Scott Erickson 52 56 5 12 30 4.50 5.19 2.5 0.87
Matt Ginter 35.2 28 1 4 27 1.51 6.81 6.75 0.25
Aaron Heilman 103.1 116 15 40 86 4.79 7.49 2.15 1.30
Randy Keisler 73.1 81 6 27 59 3.44 7.24 2.19 0.74
Bob Keppel 59.1 77 6 17 29 5.92 4.1 1.71 0.91
Pat Strange 81.1 97 13 30 53 5.53 5.86 1.77 1.44
Jeremy Griffiths was not included as he was dealt to Houston. Well, Bob Keppel is clearly not a better answer, I don’t think Pat Strange is either and Heilman likely needs more time to develop. However, Ginter and Keisler deserve a closer look, and additionally, Ginter is the one being shuttled out to make space for Erickson.
Let’s do another comparison:
IP H BB K ERA K/9 K/BB
Scott Erickson 52 56 12 30 4.50 5.19 2.5
Matt Ginter (1) 35.2 28 4 27 1.51 6.81 6.75
Matt Ginter (2) 160.2 148 56 128 2.91 7.17 2.29
Matt Ginter (3) 54.1 63 16 31 4.80 5.13 1.94
Randy Keisler (1) 73.1 81 27 59 3.44 7.24 2.19
Randy Keisler (2) 313 322 119 234 4.11 6.73 1.97
Okay, I got kind of lazy here, and put these numbers in many different rows, but I think it can also help to prove my point, in a way. Any number 1 is what that player is doing this year in AAA (familiar rows), and the number 2’s are what Ginter and Keisler have done in their career at AAA. The third Ginter row is his stats this year, at the major league level. Ginter’s AAA numbers are better than Erickson’s AAA numbers this season; his AAA career is better than Erickson’s numbers, and his major league numbers are comparable to what Erickson is doing at AAA. Keisler holds the same advantage over Erickson in terms of 2004, and his career.
Now, Keisler’s pitched pretty badly in the majors in 60-odd innings, and Ginter’s not been great in his 105 pre-2004 innings. Keisler’s problems mostly stem from an atrocious walk rate in the majors, and I’m not sure why this occurs. Most reports indicate he’s got three good pitches, and he’s done well at AAA, both this year and for his career, considering it was sandwiched around missing a year due to injury. Perhaps he loses confidence in his stuff at the majors, and doesn’t challenge hitters like he does at Triple-A? I’m not sure why Keisler doesn’t pitch well in the majors so far, but I’d still be willing to give him a shot over Erickson.
The real question is why the Mets are dissatisfied with Ginter’s 5.13 K/9 ratio, 1.94 K/BB ratio and 4.80 ERA out of the number five hole in the rotation. Erickson’s numbers are AAA are okay, but nothing great, and pale in comparison to Matt Ginter’s 2004, and career, AAA numbers. These numbers are also better than what Erickson did in his last three years in the majors.
Maybe Rick Peterson thinks he’s seen something in Erickson that would indicate he will be successful up here; something that he perhaps didn’t have during those years he was struggling with injury. If he has, that’s an opinion I would give a lot of weight towards.
However, it seems more likely this a case of trying to give a proven name a shot, as a young player hasn’t put up eye-opening numbers, and I think it’s a mistake. Ginter deserves to stay in the rotation, and I personally would have given a 28-year old Keisler the shot over 35-year old Erickson, as well. Seeing as Ginter’s is a basically a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and hard slider) another option I would have considered, if the Mets are serious about chasing a playoff spot this year, is bringing in an outside pitcher (or promoting Keisler for a few games if you have a stretch where a lefty pitcher matches well against several teams) and demoting Ginter to the pen. As effective as Orber Moreno, Ricky Bottalico and Jose Parra have been, I don’t foresee all three of them keeping this up, and Ginter could replace the weak link there.
If Erickson has a great second half, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong, but I expect he’ll have several below-average starts, at which point the Mets will either bring in another pitcher, promote Ginter again or will realize that Erickson’s been a large part of the reason they are now truly on the outskirts of a crowded pennant race, at which point they would be smart to bring up some young pitchers like Ginter and Heath Bell, anyway. Ultimately, I believe this move, if they give Erickson more than a couple of starts, could cost the Mets whatever slim chance they have remaining of capturing a playoff spot.
