Lee Sinins sends out a weekly e-mail that shows information on runs created above average for each hitter (RCAA), and runs saved above average for each pitcher (RSAA). These numbers are calculated using Bill James runs created formulas. Lee also distributes a daily report showing results, transactions and standings. These reports are reproduced at the Hardball Times. With this information we can look at the RCAA and RSAA for each Blue Jay. I had saved the final 2003 numbers so I decided to compare 2003 to a pro-rated full-season 2004. Lee's weekly report included the numbers up to last Saturday, so I multiplied the Saturday numbers by 1.8 (162/90 games).
The summary is as follows:
The 2003 Jays were 68 runs created/saved above average. The 2004 Jays are headed for 106 runs created/saved below average. That is a 174 run drop-off and, as each game represents approx. ten runs, that explains the expected 16 game drop in wins by the Jays. The offense has been the primary reason for the Blue Jays shortfall in performance from 2003 to 2004.
Why don't we look at the players?
I left out some players with insignificant numbers.
The improvements over 2003 are few, Frank Menechino and Orlando Hudson. But they pale in comparison to the drop-off from Delgado, Wells, Phelps, Johnson and Hinske. Injuries have been a factor in the poor performance for 2004, but Delgado has gone from an above average player to a below average one. Phelps, Hinske and Johnson have regressed from average to well below average. Frank Menechino is the only bright spot, he is the only Blue Jay who projects to be ten games above average. Most successful teams have four or five hitters at ten games above average at seasons end.
What about the pitchers?
The starting pitching has improved, but most of the improvement has been offset by the drop in performance by Roy Halladay. The bullpen is worse. In 2003 Aquilino Lopez and Jason Kershner were the Jason Frasor's and Vinnie Chulk's. Jeff Tam and Cliff Politte were equivalent to Justin Speier and Kerry Ligtenberg.
So the Jays have lost production from, in order:
Improvements have come from:
The Jays must have expected some level of drop off from Roy Halladay and Carlos Delgado. They expected the improved starting pitching and bullpen to more than make up for the Halladay drop-off. So far this season the Halladay drop-off has been much larger than expected and neither has the bullpen performed up to expectations.
On the offense no starter has made a big improvement and many have taken major backward steps.
It is time to reevaluate Phelps and Hinske and find someone to platoon with Johnson, Gabe Gross perhaps.
The summary is as follows:
2003 Jays 2004 Jays (Pro-rated)
Record (162g) 86-76 70-92
RCAA/RSAA +55/+13 -113/+7
The 2003 Jays were 68 runs created/saved above average. The 2004 Jays are headed for 106 runs created/saved below average. That is a 174 run drop-off and, as each game represents approx. ten runs, that explains the expected 16 game drop in wins by the Jays. The offense has been the primary reason for the Blue Jays shortfall in performance from 2003 to 2004.
Why don't we look at the players?
2003 2004 (pro-rated) Difference (if material)
Carlos Delgado 69 -16 -85
Josh Phelps 4 -27 -31
Vernon Wells 32 9 -23
Frank Catalanotto 10 5
Shannon Stewart 2
Howie Clark 1
Reed Johnson 1 -13
Bobby Kielty -5
Simon Pond -11
Howie Clark -13 -41 (all OF except Wells)
Greg Myers 9 -2
Greg Zaun 4
Kevin Cash -17 -18
Tom Wilson -5
Eric Hinske -4 -13 -9
Mike Bordick -7
Chris Gomez -5
Frank Menechino 25
Dave Berg -9 -14
Chris Woodward -10 -9
Orlando Hudson -13 -4 +32 (all IF)
I left out some players with insignificant numbers.
The improvements over 2003 are few, Frank Menechino and Orlando Hudson. But they pale in comparison to the drop-off from Delgado, Wells, Phelps, Johnson and Hinske. Injuries have been a factor in the poor performance for 2004, but Delgado has gone from an above average player to a below average one. Phelps, Hinske and Johnson have regressed from average to well below average. Frank Menechino is the only bright spot, he is the only Blue Jay who projects to be ten games above average. Most successful teams have four or five hitters at ten games above average at seasons end.
What about the pitchers?
2003 2004 (pro-rated) Difference
Roy Halladay 45 9 -36
Kelvim Escobar 9
Miguel Batista 18
Ted Lilly 11
Josh Towers 2 -5
John Wasdin -10
Tanyon Sturtze -12
Mark Hendrickson -13
Cory Lidle -21 All starters +10
Pat Hentgen -23 All starters except Halladay +46
Aquilino Lopez 11 -5
Jason Frasor 20
Jason Kershner 10 -5
Vinnie Chulk 13
Trever Miller 1
Pete Walker -1
Corey Thurman -3
Jeff Tam -4
Terry Adams 4
Valerio DeLosSantos -4
Cliff Politte -5
Justin Speier -5
Kerry Ligtenberg -5 All bullpen -16
Peterson/Nakamura -20
The starting pitching has improved, but most of the improvement has been offset by the drop in performance by Roy Halladay. The bullpen is worse. In 2003 Aquilino Lopez and Jason Kershner were the Jason Frasor's and Vinnie Chulk's. Jeff Tam and Cliff Politte were equivalent to Justin Speier and Kerry Ligtenberg.
So the Jays have lost production from, in order:
Carlos Delgado -85
OF, except Wells -41
Roy Halladay -36
Josh Phelps -31
Vernon Wells -23
Improvements have come from:
Starters, except RLH +46
Infield +32
The Jays must have expected some level of drop off from Roy Halladay and Carlos Delgado. They expected the improved starting pitching and bullpen to more than make up for the Halladay drop-off. So far this season the Halladay drop-off has been much larger than expected and neither has the bullpen performed up to expectations.
On the offense no starter has made a big improvement and many have taken major backward steps.
It is time to reevaluate Phelps and Hinske and find someone to platoon with Johnson, Gabe Gross perhaps.
