Great choice for the song Moffat. I'm too depressed to make the obvious intended connection though - except to say that Mark Knopfler rules and Mark Texeira is in fact the sultan of swing. Luckily, he is on my fantasy team.

When you have a season that's as much as a head-scratcher as this one, there's only one thing left to do: fire Tosca.

It's inevitable. He won't be around next year. I think he's a nice guy, but he's a goner: no question. The only reason he's not gone already is probably JP doesn't wanna waste money paying Tosca while also paying for a new manager at the same time.

Tosca's not doing any long-term damage to the players, and he'll do whatever JP says, so he's harmless for now - if the season is written off, which it probably is.

I hope the next guy is someone with an ML track record. I don't think it works having a 'stat freak' as GM as well as field manager. That's one guy assembling a lineup with the right numbers, then another guy disassembling it with his own crazy theory.

JP picks guys with the right numbers, those guys got the right numbers by being allowed to play. Tosca doesn't let them play. Tosca would be a helluva banker, good in a fantasy league, but I'm looking forward to the end of his days on the bench of the Blue Jays.

JP picks guys with the right numbers, those guys got the right numbers by being allowed to play. Tosca doesn't let them play.

What evidence do you have of that? Everything that J.P. has said suggests that Tosca is playing the exact set of guys J.P. wants him to play.

Why do we blame everything on Tosca, and give J.P. the benefit of the doubt on everything? Can someone explain that to me?

Why do we blame everything on Tosca, and give J.P. the benefit of the doubt on everything? Can someone explain that to me?

Because we love JP and all the Moneyball guys, so when something goes wrong, or against what we believe, we blame someone else?

Why do we blame everything on Tosca, and give J.P. the benefit of the doubt on everything? Can someone explain that to me?

I think, in part, because we looked at the team J.P. put together in the offseason and said "Hey, that's a pretty good team." But what Tosca has done with that team, even injuries aside, has not been very good at all.

Some lineup decisions may be J.P.'s, certainly. If he told Tosca to bench Phelps, then he made a bad decision. But ultimately, Tosca's the guy filling out the lineup card every day, so that's where the blame rests until somebody shows otherwise.

True, Moffat.

The world judges people on results, not effort. Based on the results: both JP and Tosca are culpable. And if Tosca is the problem, who put him there? who let him fester?

But:

-the starting pitching has been far above average (thank you JP)
-the bullpen has been below average, and used ineffectively (blame Tosca)
-the offence has been brutal (for this, I blame partly on Tosca, for not letting guys like Woodward, Phelps work out of their slumps, still not letting them bat in decent spots in the lineup)

A few tough losses and really no one's to blame. But when it goes on for an entire season... someone's gotta go. I think Tosca's stigmatized by this season and the Jays need someone fresh in control next year.

If you had to assign blame for what's gone wrong this year. How would you split it up. Here's my take:

Tosca: 5%
Injuries: 60%
If situation hitting is luck (which I don't believe), unlucky hitting: 10%
Players didn't develop and may not: 15% (Woodward, Phelps)
J.P. doesn't the right players: 10% (payroll limits etc. included)

So, what can be improved for next year.

1) Tosca won't be fired but he's not coming back.

The rest is just baseball and there's no reason to believe that it can't occur next year too. Which is frightening but hopefully not so many injuries.

"I think the last time I was a little too anxious (to return)," Halladay said. "If they say I need more of a rest than I think, this time I'll listen to them.

How the hell does stuff like this *continue* to happen?! And I'm not talking about just the Jays...

I understand the culture of wanting to tough it out and keep playing, I really do, but you'd think that when the stakes are so high for teams with no wiggle room (eg. the Jays), you'd risk pissing off your prized asset by protecting him.

Sheesh.

If he told Tosca to bench Phelps, then he made a bad decision.

Is it at all plausible that Tosca unilaterally benched Phelps without JP's influence? Given what JP has said about his role as GM, there's two chances of a unilateral Tosca move happening: slim and none.

If everything had gone right for the Jays this season - health, a bunch of career years, etc. - and the Jays were playing .600 and were going to make the playoffs, and sunshine and lolipops, and so on, we probably wouldn't be making the mistake of attibuting that entirely to Tosca/Ricciardi; we would calmly thank the baseball gods for the good fortune and understand that such fortune is fleeting.

So why are we now making the mistake of attributing the poor luck to Tosca/Ricciardi? We should calmly curse the extreme misfortune and look forward to better times in the understanding that bad luck is fleeting as well.

Tosca should only be fired, now or in the off-season, if JP comes to the conclusion that he is an obstacle to the team's improvement or if there is an available replacement who would do a better job over the next three or four seasons. I'm not sure what Tosca's ceiling as a manager is, but as I'm fairly certain he can do better, I don't think he's an impediment to the team's success. And as I don't know who might replace him, or what that person's qualities as a manager are, I'm not willing to say that Tosca must be fired so we can hire Manager X, the second coming of Casey Stengel, Earl Weaver and Whitey Herzog all rolled into one.

With respect to coaches, our whole sporting culture is in need of re-examination. Every time results are less than optimum, the fans demand change. A human sacrifice to appease the baseball gods! We steadfastly refuse to let anyone grow on the job, with the consequence that we recycle managers at an increasingly frenetic pace. This is just Tosca's second full season at the helm of this squad, and the team needs some continuity. If this team is on the cusp of serious contention, and Tosca just isn't the guy, then a change is sensible. But right now I don't have the information to support that.

I wonder how we'd feel if last year and this year were switched around. Probably pretty good about things.

And if Tosca doesn't come back I want Dierker.

what worries me about Halladay, is this sounds like exactly the kind of injury that they let rest for the season, and then let rest for the off-season. and then try to build up strength during spring training and then give up in May and have the surgery...

and then 14 months later is August 2006!!!
and by 2006 we are supposed to be contending...

If he got the surgery now, he'd be back in time to close out the 2005 season and build momentum for 2006..

anyway.. I hope I'm wrong

Over the weekend I ws watching the Rangers coverage of the Jays games on an American Satellite..

I don't know who the commentators were, but are they ever a LOT better than Mr Faulds...

If he told Tosca to bench Phelps, then he made a bad decision.

I have yet to be convinced whether benching Phelps is a bad or good decision.. I still think its possible they were rebuilding his swing over that time and didn't want him against live pitching until he was ready...

we'll see what happens as the season goes on... if that is true, and if Phelps stays in his hitting groove, then I bet we'll see him at first twice a week in August etc....

I think, in part, because we looked at the team J.P. put together in the offseason and said "Hey, that's a pretty good team." But what Tosca has done with that team, even injuries aside, has not been very good at all.

Some lineup decisions may be J.P.'s, certainly. If he told Tosca to bench Phelps, then he made a bad decision. But ultimately, Tosca's the guy filling out the lineup card every day, so that's where the blame rests until somebody shows otherwise.

J.P. has said, over and over and over, that the team has a plan and Carlos Tosca was hired because he would execute that plan. Maybe if someone calls in and asks J.P. directly about this on Wednesday he'll put the argument to bed for once and for all.

To address another post, Tosca may not have had any major league playing time, but he has had a ton of coaching experience in the minors. I'd take coaching experience over playing experience in a heartbeat, and with so many young guys on the team Tosca becomes a real asset because he's used to dealing with guys who are developing.

And why do I have to get to work late on Dire Straits day?

Speaking of Dierker, has anyone read his book? I remember reading somewhere (Neyer, I think) that it was quite good.

Another thing to consider with respect to Tosca, are his coaches. There is at least a reasonable chance that a new manager may want to bring in his own people, that he knows well, to be the team's coaches. While I doubt JP would give this the green light if they didn't accord at least somewhat with the Jays philosophy, it's a valid question to ask whether or not they might be as effective as Butterfield, Barnett, Patterson, Gibbons, Walton and Breeden. Now, it's another valid question to ask how effective some of those guys have been, and there is no great way to measure it. However, Barnett has been spoken of very highly the first two years here, and while some of the people have taken a step back this year, we didn't hesitate to give him a large share of the credit for our offense in 2003. I've never heard anyone say anything negative about Butterfield, and players like O-Dog, Woody and Hinske seem to love him and they appear to have forged a good relationship.

While the manager is the one in charge of day-to-day lineup moves and managing people, the coaches themselves do a lot of the direct work with the players. So while we may make a gain in manager assuming we get rid of Tosca (which is no guarantee), another thing to consider is whether we might take a net loss if we hire a new set of coaches.

Did Scott Carson have the weekend off? Twice I heard Faulds mention Scott Carruthers was helping them in the booth.

I have yet to be convinced whether benching Phelps is a bad or good decision.. I still think its possible they were rebuilding his swing over that time and didn't want him against live pitching until he was ready...

This may be true. But what bugs me is the inconsistency. Phelps may have been messed up, but so was Hinske, and he trotted out to third nearly every day. Reed Johnson has been awful for the last month, yet continues to hit at the top of the order every day, while Hudson bounces around like a ping pong ball.

Gerry, I heard the same thing. I was wondering if it was some in-joke between Faulds and Carson or something.

Almost anyone (other than Brian Williams) is better than Faulds as a baseball announcer. Mind you we were spoiled by having Dan Shulman on TSN. He is a great, great announcer (ESPN apparantly agrees) and it's a shame that the Jays/Rogers Sportsnet let him get away. And how annoying is Faulds homer call "What do you think about that?" Ugh. That's why the Jays have stopped hitting homers... so they don't have to listen to it. And if I hear him say "Ichiro" with the stupid faux accent one more time...

On another note, I imagine with the Cat coming back any chance of him being dealt is pretty much dead. No one is going to want to take on an injured player (playing at 70 per cent) who is facing off season surgery and can likely only DH.

Also, with Halladay's injury the Jays are going to have to be REALLY (Morneau) impressed to trade Batista.

Did Scott Carson have the weekend off? Twice I heard Faulds mention Scott Carruthers was helping them in the booth.

The first time I heard it I thought it was a joke, but the second time I figured Carson must be on vacation or something...besides, Carson is always called "stats man and sportsnet.ca columnist" and Carruthers was just called stats man.

And I just can't see Batista being traded. I'd put my money on 0 trades by the Jays before the deadline. Who wants to start a pool? ;)

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/columnist.jsp;jsessionid=MKAFMFAMGMIM?content=20040715_133325_2596
Did Scott Carson have the weekend off? Twice I heard Faulds mention Scott Carruthers was helping them in the booth.

Carson's on vacation for, according to his column on Sportsnet (COMN). He's going to rejoin the team in New York.

I was on the anti-Faulds bandwagon last year, but this year I think he's improved tremendously. Maybe another year and he'll be really, really good.

Meanwhile, on the radio with rotating guests filling in for Tom Cheek I'm finding out just how spoiled we've been with Tom and Jerry as a team. Not to dismiss any of the guests, some of whom have been excellent, but the absence of Tom really stands out. I had an inkling of it when we were on our road trip and caught some other teams' games on the radio -- nobody else could hold a candle to our Tom and Jerry.

When I'm 90 years old I'm going to be one of those old men sitting on the porch with my radio complaining that things these days just aren't as good as when I was growing up. ;)

I'd put my money on 0 trades by the Jays before the deadline

Not even Zaun?
The only players I can see them trading are Zaun, Phelps, Woodward, Adams, and Cash. However, I think there'd be very little interest in any of those guys. But I'm going to vote for one trade anyways. Actually, starting a pool here might be fun. 5 points for predicting the number of major leaguers traded away by the Jays, 3 points for correctly picking the right player, 2 points for what team they're going to trade with... Maybe with a cuttlefish as a prize?

Heh, that's awesome. Maybe I should start a separate thread for it? If enough people are interested I'll put one up.

I thought it was funny on last night's broadcast when Faulds mentioned that Tom Greive had come into their booth trying to find out what Batista throws, because he couldn't figure it out.

http://www.thewolfshack.com
Maybe I should start a separate thread for it? If enough people are interested I'll put one up.

Well I'm obviously interested. I think a seperate thread could be nice. I've been thinking about the prize. How about... a picture of an autographed copy of Chasing Steinbrenner! (Mine still hasn't arrived in the mail, even though I ordered it and the Allan Schwarz book two weeks ago...) Maybe the cuttlefish could be holding the book?

I thought it was funny on last night's broadcast when Faulds mentioned that Tom Greive had come into their booth trying to find out what Batista throws, because he couldn't figure it out.

That was a scream. Did you see Batista shake off like six choices during one at-bat?

I'll start a Trade Pool thread. At worst no one will respond and it'll slide down the page into obscurity. ;)

This may be true. But what bugs me is the inconsistency. Phelps may have been messed up, but so was Hinske, and he trotted out to third nearly every day. Reed Johnson has been awful for the last month, yet continues to hit at the top of the order every day, while Hudson bounces around like a ping pong ball.

I agree...
I am just leaving the door open for the POSSIBILTY that there is some sort of plan... If Hinske's swing wasn't being rebuilt and he just needed AB's, then sending him out rain or shine is a good idea...
and they might be willing to burn Reed up to keep the pressure off O-Dog.. or something...

Meanwhile, on the radio with rotating guests filling in for Tom Cheek I'm finding out just how spoiled we've been with Tom and Jerry as a team. Not to dismiss any of the guests, some of whom have been excellent, but the absence of Tom really stands out.

On a related note, does anyone know the reason why Mike Wilner hasn't become the regular fill-in for Tom? Of the times I've tuned into the radio feed during Tom's absence, I haven't heard Mike do the play-by-play yet. I thought he did a pretty good job when he was calling the action in spring training the last couple of years.

Most of the time I think Wilner has been back in the Toronto studio for the road trips, to do the call-in show etc. post game.

The Jays are 39 and 52... which is 3-7 since the half way point of the season.... Time to take the temperature again.

Last time using the optimism thermometer I predicted their 2004-2005 and 2006 records would be
July 6/04 Record 36-45 (77), (78), (88)

as of now I am "cooling off", and I am going with
July 19 Record 39-52 (72), (78), (88)
(just under 500 for the rest of the season)

The guys that predicted in the range of 45 wins in the second half now need the Jays to play at .600 ball, not impossible but.....

Re the fate of Carlos Tosca:

The one thing I have noticed is that the Blue Jays are currently leading the league in Most Bats Slammed Down In Frustration After Popups. Watch the hitters: how often do you see them gritting their teeth at the plate, grimly trying to do what they're supposed to do, only to fail because they're trying too hard? The Fighting Jays may be fighting their own talent: after all, as Willie Stargell once put it, the man says "Play ball," not "Work ball."

I don't know what Tosca is like in the clubhouse, or how he relates to his players. But, in interviews, he gives the impression of being a somewhat serious sort of person. In the past, this has been a good thing, as he has made it clear that he has expectations of his players (which is something Buck Martinez was not able to do). But, now, it might be time to bring somebody in there who can remind the players that baseball is best approached with (I'm not sure how to put this) an attitude of intense relaxation.

(Support for my theory: have you noticed when some of the Jays start hitting, and a few runs pile up, everybody starts hitting? "Gee, this is fun!", they're thinking - so the hits come more easily.)

Technically, if I'm not mistaken, Wilner works for the radio station/network that carries the games, not Rogers who employ/pay the announcers. I'm sure Wilner doesn't want to give up a full-time, paying gig to work a temp job with Rogers. Or does Rogers own The Fan network?

Rogers, Sportsnet, the Jays and the FAN are one big happy family.

Dave Till, you may be on to something here.

This entire season I've noted that I have never seen so many "missed pitches." What I mean is, pitchers continue to make "mistake pitches" and the Jays hitters simply fail to do anything with them. Which then leads to a bat slammed on the ground in frustration.

Jays hitters simply fail to do anything with them

So what is that?? is it bad preparation? or just the kid of "physical error" that happens with young guys... remember Carlos aside, there isn't too many years of experience out there...

I appreciate the compliment very much.

So what is that?? is it bad preparation? or just the kid of "physical error" that happens with young guys... remember Carlos aside, there isn't too many years of experience out there...

That's a good question, and I'd be willing to bet that it's the inexperience.

I mean, if you watch sluggers like Delgado, Manny, Ortiz, etc. when a pitcher makes a mistake to them VERY RARELY does it NOT end up in the stands.

And I think the preperation comes along with the experience. If you look back at the Mariners game when Delgado ended it with the walkoff, he knew what was coming. First pitch fastball up and in. He put a good swing on it and there it went.

I look at a guy like Vernon Wells, and to me, he has "missed" the most "mistake pitches" this season. Almost all of his homeruns have come thanks to his incredible bat speed and his great wrist action. I remember watching a game against the Angels this season and Colon was pitching. Burried him inside with a fastball, yet Vern still got around on it as quick as ever and mashed it into the second deck in left. Even the commentators were marveled at his wrist action/bat speed.

I think, in time, when Vern and Phelps and the rest of the young guys start to realize and pick up on pitch sequences and pitchers tendancies, we could see some more long balls. Remember, guys like Phelps came up and were hitting homers right away but veteran pitchers then made adjustments on them, thus the dropoff. It's time for the younger Jays hitters to start making some adjustments to get back into the swing of things.

And on a side note, anyone find it odd that Vern hits a lot of doubles to opposite field, say right center, but VERY rarely does he ever hit a homerun to the opposite field?

OK so we're all knashing our teeth and tearing our clothes. A year and a half ago JP dreamed of this for 05 - 06:

Halladay
Batista
Lily
Rosario
McGowan

Adams
Cat or Johnson
Wells
Phelps
Hinske
Rios
Quiroz
Gross
Hudson

So here's the story: Halladay, Rosario and McGowan at least "down" and maybe "out." HEALTHY and that is one KICK ASS starting pitching staff.

Adams, lookin' like a Gomez.
Cat, gone at season's end.
Johnson, half a hitter.
Wells, closest to God we've got.
Phelps, coulda been, shouda been, a contender.
Hinske, off the roids can now TRULY play third with the best & hit with the best on my grandma's slow ball team.
Rios, a soon to be God.
Quiroz, if not hurt so much could be up now.
Gross, if not hurt so much could be up now.
Hudson, plays as BOOT-A-FUL a 2nd base as I've seen since that Alomar guy, hits like my grandma.

JP, well he goes to bed every night, hold his teddy bear close and sighs, "Teddy, why do the base ball God's hate us so?"

Personally, I dream of the early nineties and mumble, "19 games commin up with the Spankies, we'll kick ass then!"

Three things:

1) How is Adams looking like Chris Gomez? Gomez has been a utility infielder known for his defense throughout his career. Adams on the other hand appears to be a bit of the opposite. A guy who will put up solid numbers offensively and bat at the top of the order.

2) Eric Hinske has put up a decent season offensively and is hardly looking like he belongs on a slow pitch softball team, although it is pretty funny.

3) Orlando Hudson, this recent slump not withstanding has proven to be a pretty good major league hitter. I fail to see why there are people even suggesting that either he a) can't hit or as I saw last night b) he should be sent to the minors.

it might be time to bring somebody in there who can remind the players that baseball is best approached with... an attitude of intense relaxation.

I don't think there will be a change made this season. If J.P. already has someone else in mind for 2005, it makes more sense to give that person a clean slate in Dunedin than to ask him to perform a 2004 miracle.

If they do decide to make an interim appointment, whether for purely cosmetic reasons -- to appease the angry Batter's Box posters and FAN 590 callers who demand a public sacrifice -- or as an attempt to lighten the mood in the clubhouse, John Gibbons would be a good choice. But as I said in another thread, neither Gibby, nor the ghost of John McGraw, could have done anything different or better than Tosca to magically turn this depleted roster into a contender.

Dave Till, that's an excellent theory.

You know, I wasn't positing that Tosca should be fired. My personal opinion aside, I just said he WILL NOT be back next year. Not because I don't want him back, but because I think it's inconceivable they bring him back.

Inconceivable.

He won't be fired. But he certainly won't be offered another contract either. While tacking the blame of Tosca is tacky, the reward of contract extention is just not in the cards for him. No way.

I mean, can you imagine after this miserable season JP going up to Tosca with a 2-year extension?

It's going to be announced, on that one non-baseball day before the playoffs begin, that Carlos Tosca will not be back with the Blue Jays. JP will have a press conference. Tosca will be grim in an interview in some concrete hallway. The word "injuries" will come up, and the story will be a great segue into a review of the Jays season dubbed "flying below expectations" or something equally corny.

Is anybody willing to go on record saying Tosca will be back next year? That he will be given a contract extension?

When a guy plays defence as well as Hudson, he could hit .220 and still be one of the most valuable players on the team. That guy plays 2B/SS/1B/CF/RF every night!

Keith, I agree with you and everyone else who's said it on that point. Tosca won't be back next year, but I still don't think it's his fault, and that he necessarily deserves to be fired. A change probably does need to be made to help erase the season and change things up in the clubhouse.

I just wonder how this all might have played out differently if we had hired Ken Macha over Buck Martinez in 2001.

A's fans (and I know quite a few) are usually some of the more well-manered fans in baseball and sports in general or atleast the ones I've come across.

They DO NOT take kindly to Ken Macha. In fact, some of them despise the man and his awful bullpen management and untimely decisions to leave a starting pitcher in for too long.

#210543 Posted 07/19/2004 12:39 PM by DaveInNYC:
Three things:
1) How is Adams looking...
2) Eric Hinske has ...
3) Orlando Hudson ...

Dave:
The post from #210542 Posted 07/19/2004 12:30 PM by Mylegacy: falls prey to the risk of comic hyperbole, but still makes some good points...

I don't agree that ALL the Jays players are useless.. and I would support you on O-Dog particularly... I don't "mind" Hinkse at 3, as long as he is our Number 7 or 8 hitter... Ed Sprague went to the World Series with us...

the problem I have, is that "MyLegacy" is nearly right about the organizational assessment...

Just where IS this team going to be next year and in 2006?

Assuming we can add one pretty good guy with the Carlo's money and promote Adams and Bush ... that's not enough addition to make any serious noise...

and we could lose all those Free Agents
Cat, Berg, Gomez, Speier, Ligtenberg (2005), Lily (2005), DLSantos,
and it will take money to replace them... even if its bench players...

Believe it or not, I'm not absolutely sure that Tosca is toast. The team played very well for him in 2002 and 2003; and it's obvious that the story of this season is the Tale of the Disabled List.

JP realizes that. He also realizes (but probably doesn't care) that if he does fire Tosca there will be a million stories saying "JP fingers manager to take the fall."

But if Tosca comes back, I do fear that everyone will be waiting for him to be fired as soon as there is a five game losing streak.

This is of course an ancient pattern in manager firings. It doesn't happen during the disappointing season; it happens in May AFTER the disappointing season.

But JP went through that already with Buck Martinez; the story of 2002 spring training and early season was all about Buck's impending doom. I doubt JP wants to repeat that scenario.

On balance, Tosca is probably doomed. Very little of this disaster is his fault, I think. Like all managers, there are things he does not do well (all together now: "RUN A BULLPEN") - but I was more impressed by his work than I was by, say, Bob Brenly.

I guess its easier to think in terms of who we have.. and try to figure what they'll be in 2006

in 2006
Rios, -- solid/semi-great
Wells -- great
Hudson -- Solid - Good
Gross -- Rookie/Soph
Quiroz -- Rookie
Adams -- Rookie/Soph
Hinkse -- Journeyman(?)

Halladay -- great
Batista -- Solid-Good
Fraser -- ??? Solid?

Towers, Miller, Chulk, File, (are any of these guys a Paul Quantrill?)

Arguably we have 12 guys out of 25 that we need for our 2006 pennant push... can we find the other 13 over the next 20 months?

But as I said in another thread, neither Gibby, nor the ghost of John McGraw, could have done anything different or better than Tosca to magically turn this depleted roster into a contender.

So in other words, 39-52 is the absolute best record this team could have achieved?

The hitters that are healthy have underachieved. Previously reliable bullpen arms have been throwing batting practice while being used in a way that often makes no sense at all. Even with the injuries, I have a hard time believing Tampa Bay has a better team; Piniella has simply gotten the most out of his players, while Tosca hasn't. Year in and year out, Bobby Cox turns a bunch of no-name relievers into a capable bullpen. Heck, look at the Angels, who've been plagued with injuries and a total collapse by Bartolo Colon.

Some things are out of Tosca's control. A lot of them aren't, though.

And let's not forget that JP would not be *actively* removing him. Tosca's contract is expired. JP would *passively* not bring him back. The contract expiring makes it a lot easier on JP.

Plain and simple: Tosca's time is up after this season.

A comic aside: I always watch RSN News while eating cereal in the morning. And you know you sometimes have those dreams of your morning routine? I had a dream I was watching RSN News and they announced the firing of Tosca and the hiring of Ron Washington. I felt like an enourmous weight was lifted from me. The sky opened up inside my apartment, and those frosted Lucky Charms were toxically delicious.

Somebody clue me in - I've heard the Ron Washington as the next manager story before. Why him? What's the connection?

And let's not forget that JP would not be *actively* removing him. Tosca's contract is expired. JP would *passively* not bring him back. The contract expiring makes it a lot easier on JP.

Those are lawyerly-like evasions, Keith! Which is easy for me to say, as a lawyer myself.

There's another Blue Jay named Carlos with an expiring contract. I haven't seen any indication that JP is going to have an easy time explaining why he's passively not bringing him back.

3 Hints:

1. Green
2. Gold
3. not Pineland...

I haven't seen any indication that JP is going to have an easy time explaining why he's passively not bringing him back.

A .210 batting average makes it easier.

I love Carlos, but this season he looks like the beloved family spaniel who has reached his mid-teens and now hobbles adorably around the house. The aged dog is on medication costing $19 mil. per season.

I love Carlos, but this season he looks like the beloved family spaniel who has reached his mid-teens and now hobbles adorably around the house. The aged dog is on medication costing $19 mil. per season.

If he keeps hitting the rest of the way like's been hitting all season, then you're probably right. He'll walk away and whatever storms of protest ensue are likely to be rather muted.

But if he shows flashes of his former self, the media headlines will be predictable: JP shows door to best Jay ever; Frugal Jays cut payroll by letting Delgado walk, etc, etc.

The "I didn't fire him, I just didn't renew his contract" line is a canard. Everybody knows that not renewing your manager's contract has the same practical effect as firing him. Did the Sox "fire" Grady Little last year?

You know, I just don't understand Boston.

Grady Little is a great manager. Then Game 7. "Aw... he wasn't really our kinda guy anyway."

Then Nomar. Nomar wants to be with the Red Sox* for life. Nomar can't wait to get back in the lineup. The Red Sox can't wait to get him back. Then two weeks later "Aw... Nomar's not our kinda man, let's get him outta here."

*it's ironic, but the Red Sox is one of two teams whose name you can't put in the singular without sounding awkward. "Nomar is a great Red Sock." --stupid. You always have to phrase any comment within the context of the team: "Nomar was a great member of the Red Sox." Gramatically, the Red Sox and White Sox best epitomize "team".

...the Red Sox are

woops, see what I mean.

Fun, silly, and painless personality test. A quick diversion for a busy Monday.

Wackiness: 20/100
Rationality: 32/100
Constructiveness: 66/100
Leadership: 64/100

You are an SECL--Sober Emotional Constructive Leader. This makes you a politician. You cut deals, you change minds, you make things happen. You would prefer to be liked than respected, but generally people react to you with both. You are very sensitive to criticism, since your entire business is making people happy.

At times your commitment to the happiness of other people can cut into the happiness of you and your loved ones. This is very demanding on those close to you, who may feel neglected. Slowly, you will learn to set your own agenda--including time to yourself.

You are gregarious, friendly, charming and charismatic. You like animals, sports, and beautiful cars. You wear understated gold jewelry and have secret bad habits, like chewing your fingers and fidgeting.

You are very difficult to dislike.

I don't think this actually decribes me very well (surprise, surprise, for a 20-question test). The last two, sure. The first two?

Hey. Great site. Read it all the time. I was wondering if this is your only job or do you have other jobs that you are doing also during the day? Keep up the good work.

Good one Craig.

"You are an SRDL--Sober Rational Destructive Leader. This makes you a mob boss."

YIKES!!!

"You are calm in a crisis, cautious in a tempest, and attuned to even the finest details."

Actually, that's pretty good...

"You have a natural knack for fashion and occupy a suit like a matinee idol. Your charisma is striking and without artifice."

OK, they have now lost ALL credibilty...!!

I guess its easier to think in terms of who we have.. and try to figure what they'll be in 2006...Arguably we have 12 guys out of 25 that we need for our 2006 pennant push... can we find the other 13 over the next 20 months?

I agree. But I think you're taking a bit of a "glass is half empty" look at things, understandable after last night. Allow me to present the "glass is half full" version.

- We have 2 great outfielders: Wells, Rios.
- Reed Johnson who's at worst a 4th outfielder.
- Hudson will be a gold glove 2nd baseman.
- Hinske is at worst an average 3rd baseman. Plays good defence, can steal, career .350 OBP and .800 OPS, can hit 20-25 homers.
- Cash is already a solid defensive catcher. One of he or Quiroz is going to emerge as a decent hitter next year.
- Phelps had a horrible 1st half this year (250ABs) but he also had 2 pretty good years before that (650ABs) and is having a great July now.
- Halladay, Batista, and Bush will still be around in 2006.

So by my "half full" count we need 0.5 of an outfielder (Gross?), a SS (Adams/Hill?), a 1B, and 2 starting pitchers (one 2/3 and one 4/5). Plus backup players and a bullpen. And I havent included a single prospect other than Quiroz yet. Oh yeah and that's without signing a single free agent either which JP has shown in his bullpen reconstruction last year, that he's not afraid to do if the money is available. Anyway that's just my optimistic counterpoint, feel free to disregard and be completely pessimistic at any time ;)

Hinske, off the roids

Unless you have some sort of proof that Hinske took steroids - and I'm pretty sure you don't - then you certainly shouldn't be making slanderous claims like that.

Potentially a nice deal for the Mets: Karim Garcia to Baltimore for Mike DeJean.

Thank you, Keith. Got it now.

Wackiness: 46/100
Rationality: 40/100
Constructiveness: 44/100
Leadership: 80/100

You are an SEDL--Sober Emotional Destructive Leader. This makes you a dictator. You prefer to control situations, and lack of control makes you physically sick. You feel responsibility for everyone's welfare, and that you will be blamed when things go wrong. Things do go wrong, and you take it harder than you should.

You rely on the validation and support of others, but you have a secret distrust for people and distaste for their habits and weaknesses that make you keep your distance from them. This makes you very difficult to be with romantically. Still, a level-headed peacemaker can keep you balanced.

Despite your fierce temper and general hot-bloodedness, you have a soft spot for animals and a surprising passion for the arts. Sometimes you would almost rather live by your wits in the wilderness somewhere, if you could bring your books and your sketchbook.

You also have a strange, undeniable sexiness to you. You may go insane.

Wilderness, schmilderness. No high-speed Internet or baseball on TV? Otherwise, as Mrs. Coach and the K-Dog will confirm, this is eerily accurate.

Oooh.. pointless personality quizzes. Here's mine:

Wackiness: 50/100
Rationality: 80/100
Constructiveness: 56/100
Leadership: 52/100

You are an SRCF--Sober Rational Constructive Follower. This makes you a White House staffer. You are a tremendous asset to any employer, cool under pressure, productive, and a great communicator. You feel the need to right wrongs, take up slack, mediate disputes and keep the peace. This comes from a secret fear that business can't go on without you--or worse, that it can.

If you have a weakness, it is your inability to say "no." While your peers respect you, they find it difficult to resist taking advantage of your positive attitude and eagerness to take on work. You depend on a good manager to keep you from sinking under the weight and burning out.

I don't think I've ever been described as a sober anything. :)

But as I said in another thread, neither Gibby, nor the ghost of John McGraw, could have done anything different or better than Tosca to magically turn this depleted roster into a contender.

Agreed; I should add that I'm not calling for the Jays to fire Tosca now. I don't think anybody can win missing five regulars and two starting pitchers.

And as I said earlier, I have no idea what the clubhouse atmosphere is like under Tosca. Perhaps he can strike the perfect balance between intensity and relaxation. If he can, the Jays might as well keep him.

But I think Tosca's current challenge is different from the challenge he inherited. When he got here, the Jays had a reputation (rightly or wrongly) as players who didn't really care about winning. The Tosca/J.P. regime changed that; if you didn't do the job, if you didn't put in the effort, you were gone. The Jays were transformed into the Fighting Jays.

Now, though, Tosca has to keep his players from trying to hit a home run every time up - how to relax and just let their ability do the job for them. It's a new problem to solve, and he may very well be able to do it.

I'll join in on the fun...

Wackiness: 26/100
Rationality: 44/100
Constructiveness: 44/100
Leadership: 32/100

You are an SEDF--Sober Emotional Destructive Follower. This makes you an evil genius. You are extremely focused and difficult to distract from your tasks. With luck, you have learned to channel your energies into improving your intellect, rather than destroying the weak and unsuspecting.

Your friends may find you remote and a hard nut to crack. Few of your peers know you very well--even those you have known a long time--because you have expert control of the face you put forth to the world. You prefer to observe, calculate, discern and decide. Your decisions are final, and your desire to be right is impenetrable.

You are not to be messed with. You may explode.

An evil genius who may explode. I like it.

You also have a strange, undeniable sexiness to you.

Coach, I am not touching that one. Yarg.

Karim Garcia to Baltimore for Mike DeJean.

HELP! I do not understand this. Is this a salary dump by the O's? DeJean makes $1.5 million, Garcia $800,000. Both are on one-year deals.

I guess the upshot of this is that the O's save $300,000 which is probably a good result for them - even if DeJean is likely to be at least a Type B or C free agent, and may well be a Type A again. (And Karim Garcia is, of course, not).

Seriously, how does an outfielder with Garcia's unexceptional defensive value get to have such a long career with a .280 OBP?

Wackiness: 54/100
Rationality: 52/100
Constructiveness: 36/100
Leadership: 72/100

You are a WEDL--Wacky Emotional Destructive Leader. This makes you an anarchist. You don't give a damn. When push comes to shove, you just forget about it--it's just not worth the heartache. What this means for others is that dealing with you can be aggravating, because they find they can't get you motivated about things they care about. What this means for you is that you are happier, calmer, and saner then they are on their best days.

You are near-immune to criticism, and those who know you well acknowledge and respect that. You may come across as lazy, but the truth is that you find little to get worked up about. Regardless, you have slews of friends, because they are fascinated by your world view, jealous of your lifestyle, and drawn to the fact that you are hilarious to be around.

You are a pillar in a sea of hot-bloodedness. You have a sweet tooth.

This is probably the most accurate description of me I've ever found on the internet, sadly.

Now, though, Tosca has to keep his players from trying to hit a home run every time up - how to relax and just let their ability do the job for them.

Not putting hitters in the doghouse should they ever slump would be a good start. Phelps literally had to absolute sluggo with 20 RBI in 72 hours (exaggerated figure) to earn playing time. And he's still getting benched. That's a message that players understand. 'I need to get 5 RBI in a game if I won't to play for the next two weeks.'

Players are very conditioned to Tosca. The most telling moment was when Justin Spier walked off the mound to the showers when Tosca came to the mound. Tosca wasn't going to take him out, just chat. 'Get back here', he summoned to Spiers. Well, you can't blame Spiers. 399 times out of 400 Tosca takes the pitcher out when he goes out there.

Now, if they like where they are in the batting order, they feel they need to get 5 hits in that spot to have it the next time. I think there's a lot to be said for a fixed batting order. Baseball players like routine, and they like taking ownership of a spot, they like having a relatioship with the guy hitting in front of them or behind them. Baseball was made to have 8 regular players who bat in a certain order, with few derivations. So there have been injuries. But even the everyday players: Hinske, Hudson, Cat, Reed, Phelps, Zaun have been all over the lineup.

Hudson had 5 hits his first night at leadoff. Was batting leadoff for the rest of the weekend. Didn't get a hit the rest of the weekend. Has he seen leadoff since? Where a batter hits in the order is a big decision that should be made in spring training and only changed if there is a disaster.

To add something a little more constructive, the AP is reporting that the 2006 All-Star Game will be awarded to Pittsburgh, 12 years since they last had one. Is getting the All-Star game now a consolation prize for building a brand new money losing stadium?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-all-stargame-pittsburgh&prov=ap&type=lgns
COMN for the article.

Well, it's a given that All Star games go to the new stadiums. The reminder of the Pirates should make us Blue Jay fans feel a little better.

David, it's not the stadium, but those that assemble the team that plays in it, that are responsible for the financial woes. PNC Park will be an excellent All-Star venue -- it's a true gem.

Get ready to groan...

How about this?

The World Series determines which league gets home-field advantage in the All-Star game.

I find it ironic that one of the reasons you draft college players is their signability but now all of the highschool 1st rounders this year have signed leaving about 10-12 college 1st rounder unsigned.

Hmmm...
Batista, who blamed himself for this loss

as opposed to Adams:
"I made the pitch I needed to make. He hit the ball on the ground and it's out of my hands after that."

Hey, remember how much fun we had trying to give Adams a nickname? No? Me, neither.

There's a big difference between "signability" and "guys who sign in the first month".

The Jays will get their guys signed. No worries.

now to beat this into the ground, using Keith fairly accurate raitionale, you can probably look forward to in the next few years assuming they rotate b/w AL and NL something like this:

2005 Detroit (Comerica)
2006 Pittsburgh (PNC Park)
2007 ???

then some combination of

Arizona (Bank One Ballpark)
San Fransisco (Pac Bell Park)
Cincinnati (Great American Ballpark)
Philadelphia (Citizens Bank Park)
San Diego (PETCO Park)

Wackiness: 46/100
Rationality: 52/100
Constructiveness: 54/100
Leadership: 72/100

You are an SECL--Sober Emotional Constructive Leader. This makes you a politician. You cut deals, you change minds, you make things happen. You would prefer to be liked than respected, but generally people react to you with both. You are very sensitive to criticism, since your entire business is making people happy.

At times your commitment to the happiness of other people can cut into the happiness of you and your loved ones. This is very demanding on those close to you, who may feel neglected. Slowly, you will learn to set your own agenda--including time to yourself.

You are gregarious, friendly, charming and charismatic. You like animals, sports, and beautiful cars. You wear understated gold jewelry and have secret bad habits, like chewing your fingers and fidgeting.

You are very difficult to dislike.

Where have I read this before. Burley, we're competitors (or collaborators) as SECLs. Beautiful cars? I don't think so.

The Reds also signed 7th overall pick Homer Bailey today, no idea on bonuses or anything like that.

I'm not worried about the Jays picks. I think the problem is that Weaver and Drew fell so far because of money issues I think everyone is waiting to see what they do first since they were consensus top picks.

All-Star homes predicted

2007 Tampa Bay
2008 Arizona
2009 Kansas City
2010 San Francisco
2011 New York (AL) - 10th Anniversary of 9/11

Toronto will be in its next stadium before we get another All-Star game, which could be another 20 years or more.

Coach - Sober Emotional Destructive Leader. This makes you a dictator.

Craig B - Sober Emotional Constructive Leader. This makes you a politician.

Magpie - Sober Rational Destructive Leader. This makes you a mob boss.

Moffatt - Sober Rational Constructive Follower. This makes you a White House staffer.

Rob - Sober Emotional Destructive Follower. This makes you an evil genius.

Keith Talent - Wacky Rational Constructive Follower. This makes you Paul Begala.

David Armitage - Wacky Emotional Destructive Leader. This makes you an anarchist.

Mike D - Wacky Rational Constructive Leader. This makes you a golden god.

Mike Green - Sober Emotional Constructive Leader. This makes you a politician.

---------- This is one scary bunch of people ------------

Alright, how are you people getting such high scores on that quiz? Here are my results:

Wackiness: 4/100
Rationality: 4/100
Constructiveness: 20/100
Leadership: 4/100

You are an SEDF--Sober Emotional Destructive Follower. This makes you an evil genius.

I'm not sure what the scores mean; then again, that may be explained by the 4/100 score for rationality...

What we need around here is a Sober Rational Constructive Leader. Where oh where might we find one...

In the interest of full disclosure, I too will post the complete result:

Wackiness: 36/100
Rationality: 72/100
Constructiveness: 40/100
Leadership: 56/100

You are an SRDL--Sober Rational Destructive Leader. This makes you a mob boss. You are the ultimate alpha person and even your friends give you your space. You can't stand whiners, weaklings, schlemiels or schlemozzles. You don't make many jokes, but when you do, others laugh out loud. They must.

People often turn to you for advice, and wisely. You are calm in a crisis, cautious in a tempest, and attuned to even the finest details. Yours is the profile of a smart head for business and a dangerous enemy.

You have a natural knack for fashion and occupy a suit like a matinee idol. Your charisma is striking and without artifice. You are generous, thoughtful, and appreciate life's finer things.

Please don't kick my ass.

What we need around here is a Sober Rational Constructive Leader. Where oh where might we find one...

Not here - I'm a Wacky Emotional Constructive Leader:

Wackiness: 62/100
Rationality: 46/100
Constructiveness: 78/100
Leadership: 68/100

Heh heh- massive mean streak...not to be taken lightly...ohh, good times

I'll take a stab...

Wackiness: 50/100
Rationality: 62/100
Constructiveness: 62/100
Leadership: 32/100

You are an SRCF--Sober Rational Constructive Follower. This makes you a White House staffer. You are a tremendous asset to any employer, cool under pressure, productive, and a great communicator. You feel the need to right wrongs, take up slack, mediate disputes and keep the peace. This comes from a secret fear that business can't go on without you--or worse, that it can.

If you have a weakness, it is your inability to say "no." While your peers respect you, they find it difficult to resist taking advantage of your positive attitude and eagerness to take on work. You depend on a good manager to keep you from sinking under the weight and burning out.

So I guess it's me and Moffatt working in the White House... I GOT DIBS ON MONICA!!!

YUCK!!!

Dave Till, fess up!! What is your assigned destiny??

I'm glad we got a hippie among us...

You and me both, Magpie.

Wackiness: 24/100
Rationality: 54/100
Constructiveness: 40/100
Leadership: 66/100

You are an SRDL--Sober Rational Destructive Leader. This makes you a mob boss. You are the ultimate alpha person and even your friends give you your space. You can't stand whiners, weaklings, schlemiels or schlemozzles. You don't make many jokes, but when you do, others laugh out loud. They must.

People often turn to you for advice, and wisely. You are calm in a crisis, cautious in a tempest, and attuned to even the finest details. Yours is the profile of a smart head for business and a dangerous enemy.

You have a natural knack for fashion and occupy a suit like a matinee idol. Your charisma is striking and without artifice. You are generous, thoughtful, and appreciate life's finer things.

Please don't kick my ass.

Proper.

Hmm, the comments on mine are identical to The Original Ryan's, but I score significantly higher in wackiness and lower in leadership. I'd like to point out that I, like Ryan, am a font of knowledge. That's right, FONT.

Wackiness: 50/100
Rationality: 56/100
Constructiveness: 50/100
Leadership: 50/100
You are an SRDF--Sober Rational Destructive Follower. ... etc. etc.

I always score close to the middle on these...
Why ti decided that 50 is closer to one side than the other...

In fact I am
Wacky-Sober, Mostly Rational, Destructively Constructive, Leader-Follower

I'd like to point out that I, like Ryan, am a font of knowledge. That's right, FONT.

I'm a Humanist 777.

I guess its easier to think in terms of who we have.. and try to figure what they'll be in 2006...Arguably we have 12 guys out of 25 that we need for our 2006 pennant push... can we find the other 13 over the next 20 months?

I agree. But I think you're taking a bit of a "glass is half empty" look at things, understandable after last night. Allow me to present the "glass is half full" version.

So by my "half full" count we need 0.5 of an outfielder (Gross?), a SS (Adams/Hill?), a 1B, and 2 starting pitchers (one 2/3 and one 4/5). Plus backup players and a bullpen. And I havent included a single prospect other than Quiroz yet. Oh yeah and that's without signing a single free agent either which JP has shown in his bullpen reconstruction last year, that he's not afraid to do if the money is available. Anyway that's just my optimistic counterpoint, feel free to disregard and be completely pessimistic at any time ;)

Ok, so into bodies you've got,
Gross, Adams, 1B, 2SP, a 5th OF, a backup corner, (keep woodward in the middles), and about 4(?) solid Relievers and potentially a backup baskstop.

I still get 12 names there... give or take a bullpen arm that we can keep..

your team of keepers is only 8 guys.. so add that to the 11 and you get 19, .. we need 6 more just to make a roster that is without injuries...

so, you in fact with your glass half full approach, (which I am not mocking,) actually identifies 17 needed bodies...

My glass of 13 is fuller than yours.... (mostly I counted Gross and Adams as DEFINITE, which they are not and Fraser and 2 of the existing RPs)

I turned out to be another Evil Genius. The description actually fits me pretty well.

Ok, I played the personality game too, here's mine and I'm only posting it cause it's unlike anyone else's:
Wackiness: 50/100
Rationality: 60/100
Constructiveness: 62/100
Leadership: 68/100

You are an SRCL--Sober Rational Constructive Leader. This makes you an Ayn Rand ideal. Taggart? Roark? Galt? You are all of these. You were born to lead. You may not be particularly exciting, but you have a strange charisma--born of intellect and personal drive--that people begin to notice when they have been around you a while. You don't like to compromise, but you recognize when you have to.

You care absolutely nothing what other people think, and this somehow attracts people to you. Treat them well, use them wisely, and ascend to your rightful rank.

Heh heh...ascend to my rightful rank!

Wackiness: 60/100
Rationality: 50/100
Constructiveness: 50/100
Leadership: 66/100

You are a WEDL--Wacky Emotional Destructive Leader. This makes you an anarchist. You don't give a damn. When push comes to shove, you just forget about it--it's just not worth the heartache. What this means for others is that dealing with you can be aggravating, because they find they can't get you motivated about things they care about. What this means for you is that you are happier, calmer, and saner then they are on their best days.

You are near-immune to criticism, and those who know you well acknowledge and respect that. You may come across as lazy, but the truth is that you find little to get worked up about. Regardless, you have slews of friends, because they are fascinated by your world view, jealous of your lifestyle, and drawn to the fact that you are hilarious to be around.

You are a pillar in a sea of hot-bloodedness. You have a sweet tooth.

This is eerily accurate...

I will say this... I may not be a Sober Emotional Constructive Leader, but that is exactly the sort of person I wish I was. I'm honored to have the same designation as Mike Green... we may not like beautiful cars, but we're hell on wheels at making you all happy. :)

I'm an "evil genius." Whaddaya know ... both my ex-fiancees turned out to right all along.

your team of keepers is only 8 guys.. so add that to the 11 and you get 19, .. we need 6 more just to make a roster that is without injuries...

so, you in fact with your glass half full approach, (which I am not mocking,) actually identifies 17 needed bodies...

My glass of 13 is fuller than yours.... (mostly I counted Gross and Adams as DEFINITE, which they are not and Fraser and 2 of the existing RPs)

Just to be sure I wasnt trying to say that you were wrong or mocking your post in any way, I certainly respect your position. I was just trying to present a counter-point. Never can be to sure when communicating over msg boards. Yes, it's true that in my "version" there may be more bodies needed but I think the big positive side of it is that most of those bodies would be bench players. The majority of the starting lineup, the guys who will be playing everyday and seeing the majority of at-bats, are already in place.

Of course as we've witnessed this year sometimes that doesnt always work out as expected but I think we all would agree that this year is the exception and not the rule, or we would hope anyway.

Just to be sure I wasnt trying to say that you were wrong or mocking your post in any way, I certainly respect your position. I was just trying to present a counter-point.

Thanks Loveshack, I didn't think you felt mocked, but was just making sure you didn't...

I think your counter-point is reasonable.. that the 8-10 guys we have are reasonable pieces of a pennant chasing team..

the problem I have, its of the 15-17 guys we need to add or develop, we need SEVERAL of them to be top quality guys, a real number 2 Starter (Arizona's #2 was Curt Shilling, Boston's Number 2 IS Curt Shilling, Yankees Nunber 2 was and is Mussina or Brown or Vasquez"

and not too many Championship teams have won with a Rookie and a Sophmore in the OF....

If you did the same "what do we have" comparsion usings say the Orioles what would you say?? I bet they have 8-10 pieces too.. and Tampa and Detroit...

So how do you get the other 17 guys?? ok, lets say 4 out of 8 of our prospects are all Uber-rookies... then what?

I'm worried...