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The All-Star Game is a fine event, vastly superior to the offerings of the other major professional sports. Conversely, baseball fans have plenty of sound reasons to disdain the All-Star break: no real games, soul-crushingly dull non-events like the Home Run Derby (part of the encroaching Super Bowlification of baseball), more air time for the lucid observations of John Kruk.

My problem with the All-Star break is deeper and purer. The Texas Rangers, my team of choice, currently lead the American League West with a two-game lead over Oakland. Unfortunately, the Rangers also have a long and squalid history of post-ASB collapses. For whatever reason, many of those collapses were partially at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, as you'll read below.



Texas really has played worse after the All-Star break than during the rest of the season. Here is a chart of team performance that ignores strike years and the first two years of team history when they lost to everyone, all the time:

Texas Rangers, 1974-2003
Wins
Losses
Percentage
Before the All-Star Break
1,193
1,202
.498
First 30 games After the Break
385
455
.458
Remainder of Season
630
647
.493

If not for some solid post-ASB play in recent years, the numbers would tell an even grimmer tale. From 1978 through 1997, the Rangers played .506 ball before the All-Star Break and .417 ball in the thirty games afterward, often coughing up division leads and playoffs opportunities in the most disheartening fashion. Only once during that span, in 1990, did Texas have a winning record in their first thirty games after the break.

Is the post-ASB weakness statistically significant? Doubtful. A four percent drop in wins over a random thirty-game stretch sounds like background noise; however, playing the "statistics" card doesn't win any brownie points with Ranger fans who have endured these infamous seasons:

1976

On July 6, 1976, five days after acquiring Bert Blyleven, Texas stood a season-best and franchise-best twelve games over .500, three games behind the Kansas City Royals. The Rangers proceeded to drop six straight going into the break and four more afterward. From early July through late August, Texas went 14-38 including a staggering 8-24 in games decided by one or two runs. On August 28, Texas fell to twenty games out of first with a record of 58-70.

Low Point: Scoring four runs over a five-game stretch including a ten-inning, 1-0 loss to Milwaukee.

1979

Texas had 52 wins at the All-Star break, still a team record, and aimed to overtake the 55-38 California Angels. Instead, Texas won only ten of forty after the break despite being outscored by just 27 runs. The Rangers had a Pythagorean record of 17-23 during that stretch; had they accomplished that modest task, they still would have remained only two games behind the similarly struggling Angels. Instead, Texas was 62-69, nine games out of first, and out of the division race.

Low Point: Losing a two-game series to the 29-70 Toronto Blue Jays.

1983

July 8, 1983: After three days of rest, the first-place Rangers visited the first-place Blue Jays. Toronto swept the series by scores of 8-5, 5-1, and 6-4. After that debacle, Texas dropped another 18 of 23 against tough AL East competition and fell to 49-55, six games behind the surging Chicago White Sox. Incredibly, Texas led the American League in ERA and fielding percentage that year but ended with a losing record of 77-85.

Low Point: The whole streak. Though an all-pitch no-hit team that season, Texas allowed 5.2 runs per game during their 5-21 collapse. Two weeks later, Texas traded their best starter, Rick Honeycutt (enjoying his career season at age 29), for Dave Stewart and $200,000.

1991

Eight years later, history repeats. After the All-Star break, the first-place Rangers again visited the first-place Blue Jays. Toronto swept the series by scores of 2-0, 6-2, and 3-2. Texas proceeded to lose 19 of 32 afterwards and found themselves nine games behind Minnesota.

Low Point: A four-game sweep at the hands of the 44-67 Baltimore Orioles.

1992

Texas entered the break at 48-42, six games behind defending World Series champion Minnesota and also behind Oakland. Admittedly, Texas probably didn't have the guns to challenge both teams, but they removed all doubt by dropping 24 of the next 36 including eight losses by five or more runs.

Low point: Getting swept in a four-game series and outscored 19-4 by eventual division-winner Oakland.

1995

Texas bookended the All-Star break by taking three of four from both New York and Boston. With a record of 42-31, the Rangers trailed California by just one game. While California won eleven of thirteen, Texas lost twelve of thirteen and was outscored 83-41. In a two-week stretch, Texas fell from one game out of first to ten games out.

Low Point: On the last day of the tailspin, Steve Buechele, whose flashy glovework and decent power made him a fan favorite during the late 1980s, played in his last Major League game at the tender age of 33.

1997

The defending AL West champs struggled through late June after starting 36-30. At the break, Texas was 43-42, five games behind division leader Seattle and wild card leader New York. Facing a tough climb for another playoff appearance, Texas opted for Plan B, losing 18 of 26 to fall twelve games out of the division lead and 14.5 behind New York. The Rangers traded Dean Palmer and Ken Hill during the downfall.

Low Point: Falling to 51-60 after losing to Boston by scores of 11-5 and 17-1.

2000

After losing to the Yankees in the Divisional Series for the third time in four years, GM Doug Melvin reshaped the team under a mandate from owner Tom Hicks. Five everyday players and starter Aaron Sele disappeared. Texas traded 29-and-reasonably-healthy slugger Juan Gonzalez to Detroit in an eight-player deal (in which the most useful players for each team have been Francisco Cordero and Danny Patterson).

Texas muddled through the first half the season and found themselves at 44-44, disappointing but only four games out of the division lead and the wild card the Sunday after the All-Star break. Initiating a stretch of awfulness lasting almost four years, Texas lost 30 of the next 44 games and fell to 58-74. On August 30, Texas stared longingly up at division leader Seattle and wild-card leader Cleveland, both 13.5 games in the distance. The collapse was no fluke; the Rangers lost seven games by at least eight runs. Texas also lost five of six to Toronto during that span, the one victory an eleven-inning, 1-0 contest.

High Point: On July 19, Texas traded Esteban Lozaiza to Toronto for Michael Young and Darwin Cubillan.

2004

Today, on the fourteenth of July, the Rangers lead the AL West by two over Oakland, a team famous for its second-half surges.

They open the second half of the season with a three-games series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Oh, How I Hate the All-Star Break | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Mick - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#52074) #
Great stuff. This really jumps off the page:
Though an all-pitch no-hit team

Talk about exception to the rule "the more things change, the more they stay the same."

I know you didn't include strike seasons (although, technically, 1995 was a strike-shortened season), but it's worth pointing out that the 1994 team "won" the AL West with a record of 52-62, 10 games under .500 -- the Angels, at 47-68 (21 games under .500!) were well withinn reach of the playoffs at 5.5 games out. That would've been a fun "race" to watch ... the '73 Mets record-low 82-win playoff team likely would've bit the dust.
Lucas - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#52075) #
I neglected to mention that I did most of the research at retrosheet.org. Glory and praise to them.
_Nigel - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#52076) #
This may sound crazy but my theory on this has long been that the Rangers suffer from heat exhaustion. I mean playing a large number of games day after day in temperatures in late July, August and early September that are regularly over 90 with hight humitdity has to take something out of you. I know the heat has been speculated as a factor for some of Pudge's late season declines.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#52077) #
Lucas: do you buy the "heat" theory that the hot weather in Arlington drains the team and explains the fall-off? I don't think I have heard too much about it recently, I guess the teams have not been in contention, but each time the team falls off the pace, the weather takes the blame.
_Christian - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#52078) #
It's too bad that the heat doesn't affect the visiting teams the same way. You know, the ones don't get a chance to get used to it?

I know, I know... Playing 3 games in the heat isn't as bad as playing 12 in a row (I suspect the Rangers can recover from heat exhaustion during their road trips).
_DaveInNYC - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#52079) #
High Point: On July 19, Texas traded Esteban Lozaiza to Toronto for Michael Young and Darwin Cubillan.

Please, PLEASE, MAKE IT STOP, MAKE IT GO AWAY!!!!!!!

The more I think about how awful that trade is, the more and more I get sick!
Lucas - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#52080) #
I've always been skeptical of the "heat" theory. It seems to me more of an excuse or fallacious post-collapse cause-and-effect explanation.

Just from eyeballing the schedules, particularly during the late 70s and 80s, Texas always opened the second half against the AL East. Quite often, every eastern team was solid except Cleveland and the expansion Jays. Playing six July games against Earl Weaver's Orioles could ruin any team's record.

Yeah, the heat here is miserable, but after a while you get acclimated to it. No different than any kind of weather anywhere else. I've always wondered if Texas players should have an advantage over visiting players once they become accustomed to the heat.

Another thing: St. Louis, Kansas City and Atlanta aren't exactly temperate paradises in July. And I've never heard the "heat" theory used to explain the performances of the Round Rock Express, El Paso Diablos, Tucson Sidewinders, or the Las Vegas Stars/51s.

Doubtlessly, someone could cross-check the history of Ranger home games against a weather almanac to see if there's a correlation between high temperature and low winning percentage. Maybe with a government grant, I'd do so.
_Loveshack - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#52081) #
I've always wondered if Texas players should have an advantage over visiting players once they become accustomed to the heat.


That would make more sense to me as well. The guys who play for Texas are there every day, they should be somewhat used to the conditions at least moreso than the visiting team who just flew in yesterday.

Im pretty sure Ive seen the a similar argument used for the Denver Broncos. Their team is more accustomed to the thinner air at Mile High than the visitors, which supposedly gives them something of an advantage.
Lucas - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#52082) #
Something else I just thought of: Not long after Jimmy Johnson became head coach of the Cowboys in '89, he moved training camp from pleasant Thousand Oaks, CA, to hotter-than-hell Austin, Texas. Johnson believed practicing in the intense heat would toughen up the team and better prepare them for the long season.

There's no way to confirm the effectiveness of such a move, other than to say it obviously didn't hurt, as Dallas later won three championships in four years. But it is interesting anecdotal evidence against the "heat" theory.
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#52083) #
I've always been skeptical of the "heat" theory. It seems to me more of an excuse or fallacious post-collapse cause-and-effect explanation.

Above and beyond becoming acclimated to the Texas heat, could it be -- and I am not asking rhetorically -- that baseball players, on average, are fairly well suited to deal with heat due to their place of birth?

It has been my experience that people from California, Texas, Florida and the Carribean -- which I believe collectively supply a good percentage of the players -- are innately more able to withstand heat than I, likely due to a lifetime of acclimation.

That's not to say that the Texas heat wouldn't take a toll on a native Texan, just perhaps a lesser toll than it would on a northener.

By way of anecdote, I worked with a fellow from Peru who would not feel truly comfortable on an Ontario summer day unless it was 30 degrees. On 28-degree days, I'd be dying a sweltering death while he wore long sleeves buttoned at the wrists. Should the mercury drop to 20, my level of comfort, he'd be wearing a fall jacket.
_#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#52084) #
July 8, 1983: After three days of rest, the first-place Rangers visited the first-place Blue Jays. Toronto swept the series by scores of 8-5, 5-1, and 6-4.

That was the date of the first ever MLB game I ever attended. My Dad finally gave in to my whining and brought the family down from Sudbury for the first 2 games of that series at the Ex. He scored some tickets from a friend that was 4 rows up from the Jays dugout, they were really awesome seats. I still remember a few things about those games. I remember Jim Clancy giving up a couple of runs in the top of the 1st before the Jays rallied for 3 in the bottom half. I think it was Jorge Orta who had a triple. I just remember the ball going up a mile high in the air before it landed in the outfield. I also remember Randy Moffitt escaping a bases loaded jam in the late innings to preserve the win. The next day, I saw my first homers off the bats of Barry Bonnell and Willie Upshaw and Luis Leal picked up the win. I think Mickey Rivers hit his 1st dinger of the year for the Rangers in that game for Texas' only run. I remember the buzz around the park as this was a battle of two first place teams at the time. Sadly, it didn't end up that way but thanks for the trip down memory lane.
Lucas - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#52085) #
30 degrees? Summer? Highly amusing.

It's 38 in Austin right now. 101 for you fahrenheiters.
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#52086) #
30 degrees? Summer? Highly amusing. It's 38 in Austin right now. 101 for you fahrenheiters.
My point exactly. If you ever saw me in Austin, it would be lying on a silver platter with an apple in my mouth.

It would be interesting to know how Paul Quantrill, a fellow Ontarian, deals with the heat.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#52087) #
Italics begone.
_Mick - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#52088) #
A Randy Moffitt sighting! Holy cow!

Probably the only professional baseball player in the history of the sport whose sister (Billie Jean Moffitt King, of course) was not only a more famous, but a better athlete than him.
_Moffatt - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#52089) #
Yeah, they were pretty cool. Couldn't spell worth a damn, though.
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