Every little thing that Tejada did last night was magic.

With a comment like that I think we need to get the Police involved.

I'm amused that Geoff Baker, after basically using his entire column to demonstrate how far the Blue Jays are away from contending, thinks that the Jays should increase their payroll to $70 million next year, on the logic that the contending teams are spending at least $120 million. Try that one on me again, Geoff. I think something was lost in the translation.

I don't suppose the Toronto Star has an extra $20 million lying around that it can help J.P. out with?

I actually know one and I was at the shops! Damn 1980s.

I know the Jays aren't a good road draw, but I never expected them to be the worse in the majors, either. Woolsley's right though, the numbers will come after a good three-quarter dozen or so visits to Yankee stadium.

Hey, aren't there four or five Police/Sting songs that contain this snippet? I always giggle when it shows up in another new song.

I'm amused that Geoff Baker, after basically using his entire column to demonstrate how far the Blue Jays are away from contending, thinks that the Jays should increase their payroll to $70 million next year, on the logic that the contending teams are spending at least $120 million.

Four Seamer,

It's true, the Jays are a long way from contending. I like the team, will continue to watch but my expectations are of a consistent .500 team, not a contender.

Obviously, like the Marlins last year, rookies could all rise at the right time and veterans could have career years and the Jays will be in the thick of things. That's a great hope but not something you can plan on happening.

Another $20 million would reduce the number of 'lucky' events needed to contend. i.e. better veterans are more likely to have career years.

Riccardi has been great in that there is some hope and chance that the Jays will contend, most Ash teams continued to mortgage the future for a ceiling of 85 or so wins.

I know many of you are more optimistic and perhaps I too will one day burn with the cold blue fire of a true believer.

Alsiem,

I'm not disputing Baker's thesis that the Jays, as presently constituted, are a long way from knocking on the door of the playoffs. Had things gone according to plan this year, they might have been in the thick of things come August and September, but I think the most realistic projections put the Jays towards the bottom of the top tier of six or seven teams in the American League. They haven't performed to that level, mainly because of injuries and inconsistent play from the younger players they expected more from - Hinske, Phelps, Cash. Next year, they will possibly, or likely, have to replace Delgado, and break in players like Gross, Adams and possibly Quiroz. Second-year Jays like Bush, Rios and Frasor will have to battle potential sophomore slumps. Even though Delgado's salary will drop off the books, many of those dollars are presently accounted for in terms of salary hikes to players under contract for next year. In many respects, next year may be as challenging as this year, with the real payoff reserved for 2006 and 2007.

All of which is to say, how does an extra $20 million obliterate that fact? Let's overlook for the moment that armchair GMs like Baker (and Griffin, and Elliott) seem to think that budgets are completely malleable, and that when Ted Rogers says the budget is $50 million, he really means that an extra 40% is there for the taking if you just ask him nicely enough.

Why is $20 million Baker's magic number? He just pulls it out of thin air. He concedes that the big spenders in the division fork out over $120 million in payroll; in the Darwinian world of the Toronto beat writers, the Jays would just be throwing more of Ted Rogers' money away. It's simply not a helpful suggestion. It's just a slur against Ricciardi, by implying that he only wants to spend $50 million, so that when the team wins he can prove some sort of Moneyball point. It's nonsensical, and it's unfounded. JP will spend every penny Rogers gives him, if he thinks he can spend it usefully.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040713&content_id=792175&vkey=allstar2004&fext=.jsp
It'll be worth visiting mlb.com tonight (COMN):

"Viewers will have an opportunity tonight to see pitchers and batters from close up at field level. Fox has buried two tiny cameras at the edge of the batting circle cutout, facing the plate, and another on the edge of the mound, directly facing the pitcher. Computer users can go to MLB.com, Foxsports.com and MSN.com and choose from the three angles ..."

I guess I read it differently. Not much of an argument, simply another $20 million would get them in the same ball park as the contenders. It's obviously not a helpful suggestion, as there's no $20 million coming.

Ideally if the Jays really want to win they should be taking some early-draft gambles with high school players... That's where the high ceiling super stars come from, unless you have one of the top 5 picks in the draft and can get the best college player(s). I think a mix of high school (tools) and college (proven track record) would be the best bet. The Jays have some good players in their system but none of their recent college drafts have produced someone who looks like a super star that they can build around.

I think it speaks volumes about JP's abilities that the Star writer thinks the Jays could contend with a $70M payroll when the competition is near double that. And I think Baker's right.

With an extra $20M the Jays could (in an ideal world) expect to re-sign Delgado ($10-12M), sign a Brad Radke type (~$9M), sign a "proven closer" ($5-6M) and get a power hitting SS or DH (for ~$5M) and keep payroll at under $70M.

With a rotation of Doc, "Radke", Batista, Lilly and Bush/Miller the Jays might lay claim to the best rotation in the majors.

If the Jays were actually in a pennant race until the last few days of the season - or better yet playoff bound - you have to wonder whether the increased payroll would be offset by the increased attendance and TV audience.

It would be nice.

I don't like taking high school pitchers but the extra money could also be used in signing bonuses of Cabrerra type players.

If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candies and nuts...we'd all have a wonderful Christmas.

Not much of an argument, simply another $20 million would get them in the same ball park as the contenders. It's obviously not a helpful suggestion, as there's no $20 million coming.

But the thing is, it wouldn't (not unless you believe the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels are going to start shedding contracts like crazy). Following Baker's advice would put the Jays right back where they were at the end of the 2001 season - with a mid-level payroll stocked with mid-level players with no chance of getting appreciably better.

Because where are you going to put these free agents? The outfield is set, with Wells and Rios, and Gross and Johnson competing for at-bats. The infield looks to have Hinske and Hudson where they are now, and probably Adams at shortstop. That leaves first, which might be Phelps but could be a free agent signing (but who?). The Jays could sign another veteran catcher to steal at-bats from Cash and Quiroz, but that wouldn't advance the team's 2006 aspirations very much. The rotation looks to feature Halladay, Batista, Lilly and Bush - very sound. So you can throw some money at another starter, but quality free agent pitchers aren't very cheap (Batista excepted), and the ones that are don't grow on trees. Can you find one better than Justin Miller, assuming Miller can ever stay healthy? Since there are lots of Justin Millers (and worse) pitching around the bigs, it seems every team is having a hard time finding better.

The bullpen is always a possibility, but as this year (and every other year) demonstrates, predicting performance from relievers is next to impossible. I wouldn't expect JP to want to spend a lot of money on the 'pen this off-season, since it's such a dicey use of scarce resources.

So what does that leave you with? A first baseman, a veteran back-up catcher, a bullpen arm or two, a fifth starter, a utility infielder or fifth outfielder. There's your twenty million, and outside of the first baseman, not a difference maker in the bunch (and even that's a big if). Maybe I've just been drinking too much of the JP Kool-Aid, but let's see what Adams, Phelps, Quiroz, Gross, Rios and Bush can do over the course of a full season. If it doesn't work, I'm sure Gord Ash will always be available.

With an extra $20M the Jays could (in an ideal world) expect to re-sign Delgado ($10-12M), sign a Brad Radke type (~$9M), sign a "proven closer" ($5-6M) and get a power hitting SS or DH (for ~$5M) and keep payroll at under $70M.

And who, pray tell, are these mystery men? With an extra $20 million, the Jays would still be about $12 million short of your suggested spending spree. Don't forget that a good part of what the Jays aren't paying Delgado, they will be paying in raises to Halladay, Lilly, Batista, Wells and Hinske, and a possible long-term deal for Hudson.

If you're suggesting a Radke-type, who fits that bill in addition to Radke? And if you know of any proven closers making $6 million, or power hitting shortstops making less than five, I'm sure JP would love to hear about it.

Actually, he is not short of his suggested spending spree. Remember, you have to minus Delgado's current salary from you projects.

The current payroll minus Delgado's current salary would give us 38 million to play with if the budget was 70 million. $12M for Delgado, $10M for Radke, $6M for a closer, and $5M for a DH is $33M -- with the rest left to raises and such.

Actually, he is not short of his suggested spending spree. Remember, you have to minus Delgado's current salary from your projections.

The current payroll minus Delgado's current salary would give us $38 million to play with if the budget was $70 million. $12M for Delgado, $10M for Radke, $6M for a closer, and $5M for a DH is $33M -- with the rest left to raises and such.

http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/sports/article.jsp?content=20040719_84428_84428
If you COMN, you can read an article that was in Maclean's magazine this week about the Jays. Nothing really groundbreaking or new in the article but it's something else to read during the All Star break. Maclean's also has some pictures from a game of the Sky Chiefs vs. Lynx from awhile back in their photo gallery if you want to look at some nice pics. Just click on their photo gallery link on the left hand side.

I doubt Radke will command $10 million unless the Yankees decide to step in and blow him away (hence why they're paying Karsay $5 million in the bullpen). I think Radke will see about $7 to $8 million a year, which could help the Jays chances. That said, I don't think the Jays can afford to gamble on big money long term contracts. They need to sign their $3-$5 million starters (Lilly, Batista) and hope they develop their top starters (Halladay) and sign them to lucrative contracts early in their career (like with Wells and Hinske). Look how constricted the Jays are with Delgado's contract... he's an amazing player and possibly worth the cash but it puts too much of a strangle hold to have a lot of money (for a smaller market team) in one or two players. They need to spread it around to compete.

And if you know of any proven closers making $6 million

How about the following, who signed with new teams as free agents just this past winter:

Ugueth Urbina $3.5M
Armando Benitez $3.0M
Eddie Guardado $13M for 3 years (i.e. $4.33M per)

In fact, the only "proven closer" that signed for $6M or more was Keith Foulke. Eric Gagne? $5M.

Ideally if the Jays really want to win they should be taking some early-draft gambles with high school players

that's a great idea, if they want to win in 2010 and do nothing until then.

Ideally if the Jays really want to win they should be taking some early-draft gambles with high school players

Why? HS players don't have higher upside than college players, and they come with built-in roster management problems. This is a red herring.

HS players would be worth it if there was evidence that they weer being under-valued. There's no such evidence.

http://me.woot.net
Off-topic public service advisory:

Four new "extremely critical" vulnerabilities have been found in everybody's favourite browser, Internet Explorer. These four issues add to the already large list of unsolved security problems in IE, most of which can lead to your computer getting infected with viruses and spyware.

I urge everybody who has a choice to Download Mozilla Firefox right now. Getting rid of the viruses is neither cheap nor easy. Get Firefox and side-step all the problems. (If you don't, don't say I didn't warn you!)

Alright, let's look at what the Jays have committed next year (numbers thanks to Dugout Dollars):

Batista 4.75 m
Halladay 10.5 m
Hinske 3.0 m
Ligtenberg 2.5m
Lilly 3.1 m
Wells 2.9 m

That works out to 26.75 million, for six players.

You want to sign Radke, "Proven Closer", "Power Hitting SS" and Delgado for approximately $30 million.

So now we have 56.25 million for 10 players.

That leaves 15 roster spots, and $13.25 million of Geoff Baker's money.

I think it safe to assume that Hudson, Frasor, Phelps and Johnson will be back. Combined, they are making over $1 million this year. Let's say Hudson gets a long-term deal that pays him about $2 million next year, while Frasor, Phelps and Johnson get $500 k each (Sparky could conceivably get more).

11 roster spots, $10.25 million to go.

All we have right now are Proven Closer, Frasor and Ligtenberg in the bullpen. Let's say we add Chulk, Peterson, File and another reliever, all at the minimum. Feeling good about that bullpen?

7 roster spots, $9.05 million to go.

We only need one more starter. Bush will be around the minimum.

6 roster spots, $8.75 million.

In the outfield, we'll add Gross and Rios, making around the minimum. We'll need a fifth outfielder. Another helping of Dave Berg, anyone? He cost $700 k, so let's say a replacement can be found for that price.

3 roster spots, $7.45 million.

We don't have any catchers, so we better add two. Cash and Quiroz make about the minimum.

1 roster spot, $6.75 million.

We'll need a backup infielder, maybe Woodward, maybe Gomez, maybe Menechino, maybe Russ Adams. Average cost 500 k, so let's say we can do it at that price.

All told, we're about 6.25 million under budget. Not bad, except we have two question marks at catcher, one solitary utility infielder, one raw rookie and one with less than a full year of experience in the outfield, and no reliable relievers to speak of beyond Proven Closer and Frasor. We've allowed Catalanotto, Speier, Myers, Zaun, Adams, and two, possibly three, of Menechino, Gomez and Woodward to leave without much in the way of replacements. So we're probably going to have to spend additional money to patch up the bullpen, and purchase some additional replacement players when the inevitable happens and injuries strike.

So all told, I'm a little surprised that the $70 million stretched as far as it did, but I don't think that the players you are thinking of are going to be available at the prices you're hoping. And I don't think that roster is appreciably better than the one we currently have, or project into next year. It doesn't look like a playoff contender, that's for sure.

All this Radke talk reminds me...

He is having an amazing season. Every once in a while, I put the raw numbers through Excel to see which pitchers have been dominating. I like to use Shandler's BPV formula, which takes into account strikeout rate, strikeout to walk ratio, homerun rate and, to a much lesser extent, opponent's batting average. Then I multiply the BPV by (IP/100), in order to give some weight to the amount of innings worth of rate stat each is contributing.

As of today, by the above method, Brad Radke is the second best pitcher in baseball in 2004, behind only Ben Sheets. Note: Sheets and Radke rank first and second, respectively, on both the bare rate stat and my little adjustment for innings pitched.

Here are the top 15:

1. B. Sheets
2. B. Radke
3. R. Johnson
4. C. Schilling
5. R. Oswalt
6. J. Santana
7. J. Schmidt
8. P. Martinez
9. M. Clement
10. R. Clemens
11. Ol. Perez
12. D. Wells
13. F. Garcia
14. M. Buehrle
15. C. Carpenter

Radke's insanely high standing is due mostly to his stunning 10 walks in 124.3 innings pitched. He has also struck out 85 and given up 12 homers.

And the Jays:
26. R. Halladay
44. T. Lilly
55. M. Batista

As for Jays who have not been in the rotation all year, here is how they rank if sorted by rate only, without adjustment for innings: Bush (31), Miller (79), Kershner (149), Towers (176) and Hentgen (220).

*None of this is adjusted for park or team defence, although opponent's batting average is given such little weight in the formula that team defence doesn't really matter.

If you're suggesting a Radke-type, who fits that bill in addition to Radke? And if you know of any proven closers making $6 million, or power hitting shortstops making less than five, I'm sure JP would love to hear about it

1. Cheap power hitting shortstops?

Carlos Guillen worked out pretty well for the Tigers this year. I'm not sure that there are any other guys out there like him, but maybe someone like Orlando Cabrera could be had cheaply? It would be cool have an all-Orlando double play combo.

However, it might be a little silly to spend big $$$ on a shortstop when Adams and Hill are so close to being ready.

2. Radke-types?

There's lots of quality free agent pitching available in 2005:

Derek Lowe
Russ Ortiz
Matt Clement
Carl Pavano
Kevin Millwood
Eric Milton
Kris Benson
Chris Carpenter
Matt Morris

However, I think that Justin Miller and David Bush look pretty good in the #4/#5 slots. And they'll work for 1/30 the cost of those aforementioned guys. Let's spend the money elsewhere.

As for closers, if we really want one, one can be had for 4-5 million dollars. What might be better is playing "wait and see", and then trading for one midseason if it looks like the Jays are a serious contender.

I wasn't suggesting that there weren't going to be any quality free agent pitchers, but I was just curious who he had in mind besides Radke.

Some of those guys are interesting, although I would be pretty reluctant to pay big money to some of the others given the years that they're having (Lowe, Millwood, Morris). Ortiz walks too many batters, Benson's wife is the more interesting of the pair, and I'm not sure Carpenter would come back (or if one year of production justifies the money you'd have to pay).

The point is you can get good players and a better team for that kind of money, assuming you have it (which in any case the Jays don't). But you're not going to instantly contend simply by adding Ugueth Urbina and Matt Clement. Geoff Baker is spinning a fantasy, and he can get away with it because he knows his hypothesis will never be put to the test.

Hey, aren't there four or five Police/Sting songs that contain this snippet? I always giggle when it shows up in another new song.

Feels like Seven Days since I've seen a Jay really STING one

here is what I don't get...
we clearly need to get better, so what we seem to do is take all the guys we already have and pay them more, and then say "Look the payroll went up"..

its not about Payroll..

Oh My God someone call the Police he did it again!

I counted 6,035 Sting/Police songs with that phrase - does anyone know why? Perhaps someone should tell him his umbrella has a hole in it.

John Mayer also uses this lyric (turned around) in his song "Always Her That Ends Up Getting Wet"

OAKLAND RUN SUPPORT, 2004
PLAYER, RANK out of 40 in A.L.

Mulder, 5th
Redman, 17th
Zito, 34th
Hudson, 39th
Harden, 40th

How does Mulder get the run support and Hudson/Harden don't? That's got to be one of the weirdest things I've seen lately.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/statistics?stat=rs&league=al&season=2&year=2003&split=0
Pure dumb luck, Rob. Last year, Hudson received more run support than Mulder. COMN. That's why won-loss records are taken with a huge grain of salt, or sometimes ignored completely.

Four Seamer,
A bunch of things for you:
1. Jacko beat me to the punch with the pitchers list, to which I'd add Pedro. In order I guess I'd go Radke, Clement, Morris, Pavano (assuming Pedro goes for >$10M).

2. I think your salary estimate for O-Dog next year at $2M is too high.

3. I did say power hitting SS or DH...but you're right there is no power hiting SS available, but I'm pretty sure JP could dig up a 1B/DH type to bat 5th.

4. I think we could contend with a great rotation. If you sign a "Radke" then I think, as I said earlier we'd have a rotation that matched up with anyone. Look how a great rotation worked for the A's, Twins, Braves and that 116-win M's club. So I diasagree, adding Clement and Ugie makes us real contenders in my mind.

5. This is all hypothetical until Geoff Baker wins a lottery.

3. I did say power hitting SS or DH...but you're right there is no power hiting SS available, but I'm pretty sure JP could dig up a 1B/DH type to bat 5th.

Jose Valentin has been rumoured to be available all season. Not much of a glove he offers proven and consistant power.

I disagree that with a Radke the Jays rotation would compare with that of the Cubs (Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux, Clement) or New York (Vazquez, Brown, Mussina) or A's (Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Redman, Harden... with Blanton on the way). Not even close. Halladay matches up with almost all of those guys, but Lilly and Batista, although solid starters, do not. They would be as good or better than perhaps Redman and Harden.

Avoid Morris. He has been one of my favourite pitchers since he came into the league but he has NL stuff. And he really only has two pitches and he has lost a lot on his fastball this year. He needs to add a new pitch or re-discover his previous velocity or move to the pen. That's why the Cards, in first place, are looking to deal him (rumoured Millwood/Morris deal recently).

Of those guys, I would take Clement. He's younger than Radke and has better "stuff" although his command is questionable and the Jays may not need another wild child if they keep Batista.

mr. predictor,

1. Jacko beat me to the punch with the pitchers list, to which I'd add Pedro. In order I guess I'd go Radke, Clement, Morris, Pavano (assuming Pedro goes for >$10M).

I like Clement a fair bit. Pavano, well if he's good enough for Alyssa Milano, he's good enough for me, although I'm not sure at what price. He's pitched well this year, but his track record is full of injuries. But are those guys thirty times better than either Bush or Miller? I doubt it.

2. I think your salary estimate for O-Dog next year at $2M is too high.

It might very well be. It's just a guess based on what I'd think JP would have to do to get O-Dog to agree to a long-term contract that give him moderate salary increases over four years so as to not to blow up the salary scale in the third and fourth years of the deal. But I've not heard it confirmed that the Jays are going to offer him a long-term deal, so it may be he comes back with a one year deal in the 600 or 700k neighbourhood.

3. I did say power hitting SS or DH...but you're right there is no power hiting SS available, but I'm pretty sure JP could dig up a 1B/DH type to bat 5th.

He'll probably have to, if Delgado walks at the end of the year. But if Delgado does come back, it's imperative that JP not make a mistake on this signing, since it forecloses any real possibility of Phelps and Catalanotto returning to the team, since there will be nowhere for them to play.

4. I think we could contend with a great rotation. If you sign a "Radke" then I think, as I said earlier we'd have a rotation that matched up with anyone. Look how a great rotation worked for the A's, Twins, Braves and that 116-win M's club. So I diasagree, adding Clement and Ugie makes us real contenders in my mind.

It would be a pretty strong rotation, and Urbina would add depth to the pen, but as Batista and Lilly aren't going deep enough into games, and it probably is expecting too much of Bush or Miller to expect them to eat over 200 innings next year, the lack of reliable arms in the front end of the pen is still going to cause problems for the Jays.

5. This is all hypothetical until Geoff Baker wins a lottery.

No argument here.

I think the Jays should avoid signing a shortstop. Keep with Gomez or Menechino or Woodward next season with Adams manning the majority of the time (or at least the second half of the season). Money could be better spent on pitching, pitching and more pitching. And replacing Delgado's big bat at first (if he's gone).

And I think people are overrating Urbina... He has a 4.63 ERA and only 14 saves in a pitcher's park. Throw in his age and 23 walks in 35 innings and I don't think he's the answer.

I don't particularly understand the comment about drafting high-school players or that the Jays haven't drafted anyone who you can build a franchise around.

I'm sorry, but I thought the reason the Jays wanted to draft college players besides payroll restrictions and signability and all that is to field a better team sooner rather than later. A team that can't spend as much on the FA market needs to draft as many "proven" players as possible. Hence, drafting college players.

And about the "franchise player." The Jays haven't really had THAT high of a pick under Ricciardi where they could draft a guy that's got STUD written all over him. Besides, don't the Jays already have two guys to build a franchise around in HLH and Vern... and possibly a third if you consider Delgado.

Don't let this injury rittled season fool you, the Jays are a better organization than this. This season should test the resolve of all the players, coaches, and pretty much everyone involved with the franchise.... heck, even the fans. I'm really convinced that with Ricciardi at the helm, the Jays are always going to be two things:
1) One step ahead of everyone else for the most part
2) Headed in the right direction

In JP I trust, with a 50 million dollar payroll, or a 70 million dollar payroll.

Marc, why do you think the Jays need pitching?
Their problem is offence, not pitching.

Why the search for a closer? What's wrong with Jason Frasor? The guy has been practically lights out this season.

Jose Valentin has been rumoured to be available all season. Not much of a glove he offers proven and consistant power.

Quoi?

If you cruise over to ESPN, you'll find that Valentin ranks #2 in all of baseball is SS range factor (Tejada is #1). He's also second in zone rating (to Pokey Reese).

Not much of a glove? Valentin might be the top defensive shortstop in all of baseball right now. He makes a few more errors than the average shortstop, be he makes up for it (and then some) by turning balls into outs that other shortstops just stand a wave at.

He's not without flaws -- in addition to the errors, he strikes out too much, and is a bit of a liability against LHP, so you'd need to keep a righthanded shortstop around to spot him against tough lefties (Chris Gomez and Chris Woodward are both ideally suited for this role).

However, he was correct to abandon switch hitting in favour of hitting exclusively from the left side -- his OPS against LHP is up over 200 points this year...

I wonder what it would take to sign him? He's been making 5 MM per season for the last 3 years, which is a bit rich for the Jays. Would a 2 year deal for 7-8 MM be a possibility? He turns 35 in October, so he's no spring chicken, and I expect he'll have to take a bit of a pay cut.

Signing Valentin would also allow the Jays the luxury of working in Adams and Hill slowly. I think Adams would benefit tremendously from spending an extra year in AAA working on his defense and developing a little more power.

In summary, Valentin is exactly the type of guy that smart GM's go after. His perceived flaws keep his price down, but he represents good value for the money.

What's wrong with Jason Frasor?

Not a thing. However, it's possible that the league will catch up with him eventually. He's gotten people out by being "sneaky fast" -- much quicker to the plate than he looks. When hitters adjust, Frasor will need to add a new wrinkle or change his approach. It's way too soon to tell how successful he's going to be, for how long. The rapid rise and fall of Aquilino Lopez should illustrate that nothing is certain in any bullpen.

The payroll will be what it is; a challenge, if not a handicap. Even at $70 million, the richer clubs will have far more depth and flexibility. You simply can't afford to keep guys like Kenny Lofton, Tony Clark, Jon Lieber and El Duque around as spare parts, or buy additional all-stars as needed. When key people get hurt, or underperform for any other reason, the team on a budget is in trouble.

Brad Radke is the second best pitcher in baseball in 2004, behind only Ben Sheets.

Wow, who knew? Presumably Shandler, so perhaps Radke will end up in St. Louis. It would be great if the Jays could add someone like him or Clement next year, but it's wishful thinking, as there's no guarantee of a playoff spot in the East no matter what you spend.

I would agree with the Frasor assessment. His numbers are great but he isn't striking out a lot of guys (something you really need a closer to be able to do). Hopefully the change up he's working on will help.

Valentin would be a scary guy to watch on turf. Defensively he would be a step BACK from Woodward. And he is 35... an age when most power hitters start to lose some bat speed (unless your name is Bonds).

Paul D:
In the long run, the Jays' problem will not be their hitting. It just happens that their hitters have been injured. Have you already forgotten last year when the Jays were one of the top 5 offensive clubs? Besides it's pitching and defence that wins games... How many games have been lost because of ineffective pitching by Speiers, Adams, Ligtenberg, Hentgen, et al?

I think this season has TRULY shown the importance of a good bullpen, good depth, and good situation hitting AND pitching. The Jays have lacked all 3 for the most part this season and it's hurt them. The injuries are beyond their control, but when you've got to pick your poison of Clark/Berg in left field... your in trouble.

I guess I'd disagree about Valentine. I don't think the Jays need to ink him to a deal to steal playing time from Adams. I don't think Adams will ever improve much on his power, so I think the Jays should give him a shot next season and keep Gomez around just in case the kid falls flat on his face (which I don't think he will)

Brad Radke is the second best pitcher in baseball in 2004, behind only Ben Sheets.

Wow, who knew?

*AHEM*

Besides it's pitching and defence that wins games... How many games have been lost because of ineffective pitching by Speiers, Adams, Ligtenberg, Hentgen, et al?

And how many were lost because the Jays couldn't score any runs? I suspect quite a few. It's cliche to say that about pitching and defence - and they're both extremely important - but scoring more than your opponent wins games. You can do that with obscene hitting like the Yankees or the Sox of last year or strong pitching. Ultimately, it's the best combination of all three that wins the day.

Marc, I haven't forgotten about last year. But this year the Jays are in the top half of the league in terms of pitching. And which looks to get better in the future? Chulk, Lilly, Frasor, Petersen, Halladay and Batista aren't going anywhere, but Delgado and Catalanatto might. Not scoring runs is the Jays biggest problem.

As for pitching and defence winning championships, I don't buy that for a second. Yes, it's possible to win like that, but that's not the only way to construct a winning team. Remember the 93 Blue Jays?

Valentin would be a scary guy to watch on turf. Defensively he would be a step BACK from Woodward. And he is 35... an age when most power hitters start to lose some bat speed (unless your name is Bonds).

Marc, you really need to qualify your statements about Valentin's defence. What suggests to you that he would perform poorly on turf?

In 2004, Valentin is _miles_ ahead of Woodward in range factor, 5.02 vs. 4.02. That's an extra out every game. His zone rating is significantly better as well (.896 vs .802).

Simply put, Valentin turns way more balls into outs than Woodward. How can he possibly be a step back from Woodward?

Fading batspeed is a real problem for players as old as Valentin, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down this year. If anything, his advanced age will make him an even bigger bargain. I really think the Jays should sign this guy.

The 2002 Auburn club had Bush, Peterson and Adams, as well as other talents (Pleiness, Nin, League, Maureau) who for a variety of reasons haven't progressed as quickly. The 2003 Auburn club was even better, boasting Hill, Banks, Vito, Marcum, Vermilyea, James, Isenberg, Mastny, Core, Tingler, Snavely and Ryan Roberts. Most of these guys are making excellent progress. The 2004 Auburn club looks to be every bit as good, and possibly better even than the 2003 club. Both the offence and the pitching seem to be first-rate (and Joey McLaughlin Jr. is there to provide the memories).

Throw in the development of some Ash/Wilken drafts (Rios, Quiroz, Negron, and McGowan) and the young talent already with the big club, and this team should be great in 2006-07.

In order to survive on a $50 million budget, a team has to beat the norm of 3 major leaguers per draft. I'm quite sure that JP's got 4-5 major leaguers out of each of the drafts so far, and some who will be very productive, in my opinion.

Brad Radke is the second best pitcher in baseball in 2004, behind only Ben Sheets.

Wow, who knew?

*AHEM*


no-one in the Alomar draft suspected. They went in the 8th and 9th rounds!

Valentin might get to more balls, but he throws a lot of them away. Also, Woody plays on turf, while Valentin does not. Grass slows balls a lot and allows people to get to more of them. It therefore gives players more time to range further. Throw both of 'em on turf or grass for 50 games and we'll have a fair assessment.

This might be a bit off topic, but I was wondering if anyone knew if Erubiel Durazo is a free agent after this season, or is it next?

Yeah, he's an FA after this season according to Dugout Dollars.

Oops...I mean Dugout Dollars.

Actually Durazo hasn't had enough service time to qualify for free agency. He has one more year of arbitration and Oakland control before he becomes a free agent.

Oh really? My bad, then. I just kinda saw that he was thirty years old and figured he could be an FA.

Mr. Rutsey seems to be convinced of something:

His comments on JP: He gets an A+ as far as second-guessing his manage (manager)

Tosca: It's tough to be second-guessed constantly by your boss, too

Constantly? I only know of the one time. Watch out, The Sun is mad!

Yes, Durazo at the end of this year will have less than six years' service time, so it will be back to arbitration for him.

Regarding Valentin: I think the recent injury to Thomas may change the thinking of the Sox management.

Too bad there isn't an all star game thread, but I want to say it is absolutely disgusting that FOX didn't care to show the Canadian national anthem. Very disrespectful.

Jim, there's a game thread now.