In this guest column, Thomas takes a closer look at three notable events from around baseball last week.
This Week in Baseball: July 5th-11th
by Thomas Ayres
1. Josh Phelps sets the Blue Jays club record with 13 RBI in a 3-game series.
I’m unsure what the Blue Jays club record for RBI in a 3-game series was before Phelps broke it, and I can’t find that information on the internet anywhere. Roy Howell holds the single-game record with 9 RBI in a game against the Yankees on September 10, 1977. Phelps’s 7 RBI in one game ties the second-highest single game total, shared with John Mayberry, Otto Velez and George Bell. Not all of those were a 3-game series, and of those that were none of those players posted noticeable RBI totals in any of the other games in those series; all of them ending with fewer than 9 RBIs. Many players have had six RBIs in one game from Bell, Ernie Whitt and Raul Mondesi, all twice, to Charlie O’Brien on May 14, 1997 in Detroit, just to name a few.
While I can’t tell you what the old record was, I can break down a very impressive stretch of hitting over 3 games, which included an unforgettable upper-deck grand slam, which immediately conjured up memories of his blast off Clemens in 2002. Below I’ll break down each Phelps at-bat with regards to what inning it occurred in, the opposing starter, how many runners were on base, what Phelps did in the at-bat and how many RBIs he recorded.
Game 1: Tuesday, July 6: Toronto 7, Seattle 6
Game 2: Wednesday, July 7: Toronto 12, Seattle 4
Game 3: Thursday, July 8: Toronto 10, Seattle 8
In the three games Phelps came to bat with 16 runners on base, which has to be an extremely high number for 13 plate appearances, especially the 12 runners on base in the 8 at bats during the first two games. Phelps hit 3 home runs in the series, so that means he stranded 6 runners on base, and drove home 10 runners, plus himself 3 times.
One thing that stands out when I look at this streak is that he stranded a runner on first, three on second and two on third base. With a couple of extra singles, or even a sacrifice fly or two Phelps could easily have managed 15 or 16 RBI in three games. However, one really cannot complain when Phelps came up to bat with the bases loaded in consecutive games and managed to cash in all the runners each time.
There isn’t too much more which can be said about an RBI streak like this, as RBIs are obviously heavily dependent upon your teammates, who have to get themselves on base, and in scoring position, to give you an opportunity to drive them in. Phelps was able to string together 13 very good plate appearances (6 for 9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, HBP, 3 BB) against Seattle pitchers, at a time when the batters in front of him were getting on base at a high rate. Hopefully, this stretch indicates that Phelps has turned a corner in his approach at the plate. If nothing else, this should encourage Tosca to play Phelps more, which is a positive move, as even if Phelps will never become the hitter the Blue Jays expected several years ago, it is better to find that out sooner rather than later, especially during a season without serious playoff aspirations.
2. Jake Peavy makes his second start since coming back from the DL.
If I’d written this piece last week, I’d have talked about Peavy’s return from the disabled list, but I didn’t and now I’ll cheat a bit and reach back to talk about his return. Peavy went on the disabled list with a strained flexor tendon on May 20, just as he was putting together one of the best seasons in the National League.
Peavy has had one good start and one bad one since his return from the DL. He pitched 5.1 innings against Kansas City and gave up 1 run, while striking out six in his first start back. In his second start he struggled, giving up 4 runs in 4 innings, while allowing 4 walks. This has caused his ERA to rise to a whopping 2.43 after 11 starts.
A particular key to Peavy’s effectiveness has been his ability, so far, to avoid allowing home runs, especially with runners on base. Before going on the DL he had allowed 2 in 53.2 innings, both of them in a 3-1 loss to Florida, and both were solo shots. He has allowed 1 in each of his two starts since he’s returned, a solo shot to Ken Harvey and a 2-run homer to Jose Vizcaino.
Here are Peavy’s average innings thrown per home run allowed for each of his major league seasons:
Now, it’s very possible that Peavy’s not as prone to the home runs as he appeared in 2003, but that 15.75 IP/HR number is a huge jump over his totals from any previous year, and I’d be extremely surprised if it doesn’t come down in the future. Peavy’s allows 0.57 home runs per 9 innings so far this year, which would have placed him 3rd in the National League last year behind Carlos Zambrano (0.38) and Kevin Brown (0.47). He would have been 5th in baseball behind Pedro Martinez (0.34) and Tim Hudson (0.56).
To further examine this trend here are the top 5 in each league last year in HR/9 innings, with comparisons to their career highs (minimum 50 innings) and what their HR/9 inning rate is so far in 2004:
* Batista’s career high, if you discount 2000 and his 63.1 innings, was 0.80 in 1998.
On a side note, I didn’t know that Tim Hudson had been that talented at avoiding homeruns this year. Averaging one home run allowed every 36 innings is a phenomenal rate for a starter; something that even exceeds Pedro’s career high.
With regards to Peavy, his 1.52 is the highest career high on the page aside from Miguel Batista, who is mentioned in the above table footnote, and Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza more than doubled his rate from last year, and looking at his career totals his 0.68 sticks out, although most of his totals fall in his 2004 range, and aren’t quite as high as his 1996 rate. In those two top five lists Loaiza’s is the one fluke performance, and in an unsurprising development at least some of that lightning he caught in a bottle has escaped. Optimistic comparisons would point to Mark Mulder, who struggled in his first season, but then developed into the outstanding starter Oakland was expecting. Peavy was a similarly highly-touted prospect, who potentially didn’t receive all the accolades he deserved based on his minor league numbers. Peavy’s already showing signs of developing into one of the top starters in the National League, but his home runs numbers will rise, and I think they’ll settle into a range slightly above what Mulder and Batista are sitting at. He won’t sustain this ERA in the low 2’s, but a rise in his home run rate which contributed to a full run being added onto his ERA would still leave him as a top starter in the National League.
Peavy draws San Diego’s first start after the all-star game (a game which he would likely be attending if not for the injury) against the Astros and his health and effectiveness are big keys to San Diego’s playoff chances in the weak NL West.
3. Eric Gagne’s streak of 84 consecutive saves ends, as he blows a save against the Diamondbacks.
When my Sports Illustrated arrived on July 6, with a story about Eric Gagne’s streak as one of the reasons for the reemergence of baseball, it was a sign that I was foolish to ignore. However, about nine hours later the streak was over, as Eric Gagne blew a save to the team that has his numbers, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Three of his five career blown saves have been against Arizona, including this historical blown save. What made the blown save even more frustrating for Gagne and/or Dodger fans was the fact that a good, or maybe even average, defensive first baseman probably would have fielded the ball that hit off Olmedo Saenz’s glove and given Gagne a chance to get the final out and preserve the save.
Like many readers here, I don’t often agree with Joe Morgan’s analysis in his columns, although I do agree with his point that Gagne’s save streak has been both overrated and underrated at the same time. Some people talk about the streak like it’s the most impressive thing in baseball history, or consider Gagne the best pitcher in baseball. However, others seem to demean his achievement by talking as if all of Gagne’s saves were 3-run cushions, talking about his failed stint as a starter as if that takes away from his dominance as a reliever or by pointing to his blown All-Star game save.
In fact, Morgan goes on to perpetuate several of those myths by saying that if you handed Bob Gibson a three-run lead in the ninth inning he’d never blow a save, ever. While I don’t doubt that Bob Gibson was an outstanding pitcher, I find that statement hard to believe. And, as Jayson Stark pointed out in his column on Gagne’s streak, almost half of Gagne’s saves were “tough saves” in which he protected a one run lead or had the tying run in scoring position when he entered the game. That 45.2% tough save percentage that he had during his streak was the highest percentage in baseball, proving that Gagne wasn’t simply picking up cheap saves. Stark’s got some other great information on how impressive Gagne’s streak is, and it’s a fun read if you haven’t checked it out.
In terms of comparing Gagne’s record-breaking streak to another incredible run, The Sports Grinder blog tried to compare Gagne’s streak at 83 saves with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak. This is something that I had been quite curious about myself, and I had speculated that maybe 140-150 saves in a row would equal DiMaggio’s hitting streak. The Sports Grinder tried to compare how difficult each of the feats was for the average MLB player, and then examined the results. He concluded that a 112-game save streak should equal a 56-game hitting streak in terms of difficulty. Similarly, an 83-game save streak is equal to a 41-game hitting streak. There have been five streaks of 41 or more consecutive games in which a player recorded a hit; Joe Dimaggio (56, 1956), “Wee” Willie Keeler (44, 1897), Pete Rose (44, 1978), Bill Dahlen (42, 1894) and George Sisler (41, 1922). That’s quite an exclusive list and demonstrates just how tough Gagne’s feat was, and it doesn’t even account for how dominating he was during the streak. I know it’s a given that a player is obviously going to perform well when setting a record, but some of Gagne’s numbers with regards to strikeouts and hits allowed were disgusting.
Regardless of your thoughts on how difficult or overrated Gagne is, it’s evident that over the last two years we witnessed something that probably won’t be equaled for a very long time. Not only that, but we also witnessed what legitimately can be debated as the best season of relief pitching in baseball history. What made it even more special was that it came from a Canadian, which almost always makes success more pleasurable to watch. It was inevitable, but I was still disappointed to see Gagne’s streak come to an end. It would have been nice for him to get to 100. However, he seems to have picked up right where he left off, racking up 4 strikeouts in 3 innings while recording two saves in his past two appearances. Right now the sky’s the limit for Gagne, as he shows no signs of slowing down.
This Week in Baseball: July 5th-11th
by Thomas Ayres
1. Josh Phelps sets the Blue Jays club record with 13 RBI in a 3-game series.
I’m unsure what the Blue Jays club record for RBI in a 3-game series was before Phelps broke it, and I can’t find that information on the internet anywhere. Roy Howell holds the single-game record with 9 RBI in a game against the Yankees on September 10, 1977. Phelps’s 7 RBI in one game ties the second-highest single game total, shared with John Mayberry, Otto Velez and George Bell. Not all of those were a 3-game series, and of those that were none of those players posted noticeable RBI totals in any of the other games in those series; all of them ending with fewer than 9 RBIs. Many players have had six RBIs in one game from Bell, Ernie Whitt and Raul Mondesi, all twice, to Charlie O’Brien on May 14, 1997 in Detroit, just to name a few.
While I can’t tell you what the old record was, I can break down a very impressive stretch of hitting over 3 games, which included an unforgettable upper-deck grand slam, which immediately conjured up memories of his blast off Clemens in 2002. Below I’ll break down each Phelps at-bat with regards to what inning it occurred in, the opposing starter, how many runners were on base, what Phelps did in the at-bat and how many RBIs he recorded.
Game 1: Tuesday, July 6: Toronto 7, Seattle 6
At-Bat Opp. Pitcher Runners On Result
1st Moyer 1st, 3rd HR, 3 RBI
3rd Moyer 2nd BB, 0 RBI
5th Moyer 1st BB, 0 RBI
7th Putz 2nd, 3rd BB, 0 RBI
Game 2: Wednesday, July 7: Toronto 12, Seattle 4
At-Bat Opp. Pitcher Runners On Result
3rd Blackley 3rd K, 0 RBI
5th Blackley 1st HR, 2 RBI
6th Mateo 1st, 2nd, 3rd HR, 4 RBI
7th Hasegawa 3rd 2B, 1 RBI
Game 3: Thursday, July 8: Toronto 10, Seattle 8
At-Bat Opp. Pitcher Runners On Result
2nd Franklin 0 1B, 0 RBI
3rd Franklin 2nd Fly out (9), 0 RBI
5th Franklin 1st, 2nd, 3rd 3B, 3 RBI
7th Villone 0 HBP, 0 RBI
9th Guardado 0 K, 0 RBI
In the three games Phelps came to bat with 16 runners on base, which has to be an extremely high number for 13 plate appearances, especially the 12 runners on base in the 8 at bats during the first two games. Phelps hit 3 home runs in the series, so that means he stranded 6 runners on base, and drove home 10 runners, plus himself 3 times.
One thing that stands out when I look at this streak is that he stranded a runner on first, three on second and two on third base. With a couple of extra singles, or even a sacrifice fly or two Phelps could easily have managed 15 or 16 RBI in three games. However, one really cannot complain when Phelps came up to bat with the bases loaded in consecutive games and managed to cash in all the runners each time.
There isn’t too much more which can be said about an RBI streak like this, as RBIs are obviously heavily dependent upon your teammates, who have to get themselves on base, and in scoring position, to give you an opportunity to drive them in. Phelps was able to string together 13 very good plate appearances (6 for 9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, HBP, 3 BB) against Seattle pitchers, at a time when the batters in front of him were getting on base at a high rate. Hopefully, this stretch indicates that Phelps has turned a corner in his approach at the plate. If nothing else, this should encourage Tosca to play Phelps more, which is a positive move, as even if Phelps will never become the hitter the Blue Jays expected several years ago, it is better to find that out sooner rather than later, especially during a season without serious playoff aspirations.
2. Jake Peavy makes his second start since coming back from the DL.
If I’d written this piece last week, I’d have talked about Peavy’s return from the disabled list, but I didn’t and now I’ll cheat a bit and reach back to talk about his return. Peavy went on the disabled list with a strained flexor tendon on May 20, just as he was putting together one of the best seasons in the National League.
Here are his stats when he went on the DL:
IP H ER BB K ERA
Peavy 53.2 54 12 19 53 2.01
Peavy has had one good start and one bad one since his return from the DL. He pitched 5.1 innings against Kansas City and gave up 1 run, while striking out six in his first start back. In his second start he struggled, giving up 4 runs in 4 innings, while allowing 4 walks. This has caused his ERA to rise to a whopping 2.43 after 11 starts.
A particular key to Peavy’s effectiveness has been his ability, so far, to avoid allowing home runs, especially with runners on base. Before going on the DL he had allowed 2 in 53.2 innings, both of them in a 3-1 loss to Florida, and both were solo shots. He has allowed 1 in each of his two starts since he’s returned, a solo shot to Ken Harvey and a 2-run homer to Jose Vizcaino.
Here are Peavy’s average innings thrown per home run allowed for each of his major league seasons:
Year IP/HR
2002 8.88
2003 5.89
2004 15.75
Now, it’s very possible that Peavy’s not as prone to the home runs as he appeared in 2003, but that 15.75 IP/HR number is a huge jump over his totals from any previous year, and I’d be extremely surprised if it doesn’t come down in the future. Peavy’s allows 0.57 home runs per 9 innings so far this year, which would have placed him 3rd in the National League last year behind Carlos Zambrano (0.38) and Kevin Brown (0.47). He would have been 5th in baseball behind Pedro Martinez (0.34) and Tim Hudson (0.56).
To further examine this trend here are the top 5 in each league last year in HR/9 innings, with comparisons to their career highs (minimum 50 innings) and what their HR/9 inning rate is so far in 2004:
Player 2003 HR/9 2004 HR/9 Career High HR/9
C. Zambrano 0.38 0.71 0.75 (2002)
K. Brown 0.47 1.12 1.27 (2002)
B. Webb 0.60 0.64 0.60 (2003)
M. Batista 0.61 0.69 2.61 (2000)*
J. Schmidt 0.61 0.87 1.02 (1999)
P. Martinez 0.38 1.07 1.00 (1998)
T. Hudson 0.56 0.25 1.07 (2000)
E. Loaiza 0.68 1.34 1.88 (1996)
M. Mulder 0.72 0.61 1.29 (2000)
B. Zito 0.74 1.38 0.93 (2002)
J. Peavy 1.52 0.57 1.52 (2003)
* Batista’s career high, if you discount 2000 and his 63.1 innings, was 0.80 in 1998.
On a side note, I didn’t know that Tim Hudson had been that talented at avoiding homeruns this year. Averaging one home run allowed every 36 innings is a phenomenal rate for a starter; something that even exceeds Pedro’s career high.
With regards to Peavy, his 1.52 is the highest career high on the page aside from Miguel Batista, who is mentioned in the above table footnote, and Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza more than doubled his rate from last year, and looking at his career totals his 0.68 sticks out, although most of his totals fall in his 2004 range, and aren’t quite as high as his 1996 rate. In those two top five lists Loaiza’s is the one fluke performance, and in an unsurprising development at least some of that lightning he caught in a bottle has escaped. Optimistic comparisons would point to Mark Mulder, who struggled in his first season, but then developed into the outstanding starter Oakland was expecting. Peavy was a similarly highly-touted prospect, who potentially didn’t receive all the accolades he deserved based on his minor league numbers. Peavy’s already showing signs of developing into one of the top starters in the National League, but his home runs numbers will rise, and I think they’ll settle into a range slightly above what Mulder and Batista are sitting at. He won’t sustain this ERA in the low 2’s, but a rise in his home run rate which contributed to a full run being added onto his ERA would still leave him as a top starter in the National League.
Peavy draws San Diego’s first start after the all-star game (a game which he would likely be attending if not for the injury) against the Astros and his health and effectiveness are big keys to San Diego’s playoff chances in the weak NL West.
3. Eric Gagne’s streak of 84 consecutive saves ends, as he blows a save against the Diamondbacks.
When my Sports Illustrated arrived on July 6, with a story about Eric Gagne’s streak as one of the reasons for the reemergence of baseball, it was a sign that I was foolish to ignore. However, about nine hours later the streak was over, as Eric Gagne blew a save to the team that has his numbers, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Three of his five career blown saves have been against Arizona, including this historical blown save. What made the blown save even more frustrating for Gagne and/or Dodger fans was the fact that a good, or maybe even average, defensive first baseman probably would have fielded the ball that hit off Olmedo Saenz’s glove and given Gagne a chance to get the final out and preserve the save.
Like many readers here, I don’t often agree with Joe Morgan’s analysis in his columns, although I do agree with his point that Gagne’s save streak has been both overrated and underrated at the same time. Some people talk about the streak like it’s the most impressive thing in baseball history, or consider Gagne the best pitcher in baseball. However, others seem to demean his achievement by talking as if all of Gagne’s saves were 3-run cushions, talking about his failed stint as a starter as if that takes away from his dominance as a reliever or by pointing to his blown All-Star game save.
In fact, Morgan goes on to perpetuate several of those myths by saying that if you handed Bob Gibson a three-run lead in the ninth inning he’d never blow a save, ever. While I don’t doubt that Bob Gibson was an outstanding pitcher, I find that statement hard to believe. And, as Jayson Stark pointed out in his column on Gagne’s streak, almost half of Gagne’s saves were “tough saves” in which he protected a one run lead or had the tying run in scoring position when he entered the game. That 45.2% tough save percentage that he had during his streak was the highest percentage in baseball, proving that Gagne wasn’t simply picking up cheap saves. Stark’s got some other great information on how impressive Gagne’s streak is, and it’s a fun read if you haven’t checked it out.
In terms of comparing Gagne’s record-breaking streak to another incredible run, The Sports Grinder blog tried to compare Gagne’s streak at 83 saves with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak. This is something that I had been quite curious about myself, and I had speculated that maybe 140-150 saves in a row would equal DiMaggio’s hitting streak. The Sports Grinder tried to compare how difficult each of the feats was for the average MLB player, and then examined the results. He concluded that a 112-game save streak should equal a 56-game hitting streak in terms of difficulty. Similarly, an 83-game save streak is equal to a 41-game hitting streak. There have been five streaks of 41 or more consecutive games in which a player recorded a hit; Joe Dimaggio (56, 1956), “Wee” Willie Keeler (44, 1897), Pete Rose (44, 1978), Bill Dahlen (42, 1894) and George Sisler (41, 1922). That’s quite an exclusive list and demonstrates just how tough Gagne’s feat was, and it doesn’t even account for how dominating he was during the streak. I know it’s a given that a player is obviously going to perform well when setting a record, but some of Gagne’s numbers with regards to strikeouts and hits allowed were disgusting.
Regardless of your thoughts on how difficult or overrated Gagne is, it’s evident that over the last two years we witnessed something that probably won’t be equaled for a very long time. Not only that, but we also witnessed what legitimately can be debated as the best season of relief pitching in baseball history. What made it even more special was that it came from a Canadian, which almost always makes success more pleasurable to watch. It was inevitable, but I was still disappointed to see Gagne’s streak come to an end. It would have been nice for him to get to 100. However, he seems to have picked up right where he left off, racking up 4 strikeouts in 3 innings while recording two saves in his past two appearances. Right now the sky’s the limit for Gagne, as he shows no signs of slowing down.
