Performance likes that from Phelps could be Addicting.

By the way, I love writing headlines -- it's arguably my favorite part of the journalistic process. But there's somethig to be said for the simple informational hed from time to time. You can only force so many "Happy Halladay" or "Cat Quick to Score" puns before "Ah, damn, just run the score" starts to look good.

But I'd guess, seriously, it was a placeholder hed that slipped through and was replaced in later press runs and will probably be replaced online.

Bah!
I spent too much time trying to think of something clever to do with "when I was 5". Then the phone rang. Work always seems to get in the way.

Didn't know that Romanuk had started doing Jays games. I got a chuckle when he described a put-out, then added on, "in case you're nerdy and scoring at home".

BTW, when I was five, Alfredo Griffin won the Rookie of the Year.

No one else has come forward with a Leslie Nielson sighting. Was I dreaming when I saw him put on JumboTron?

I'm still buzzed from last night. That was a good showing.

I think Melvin tried to give his pitcher some character by keeping him in the game to finish that one disastrous inning. It was ridiculous, the hits kept getting pounded out, it was the 6th inning or so, and nobody was getting loose in the bullpen (it was cool, I was sitting just to the right of the M's bullpen at field level, the phone only started ringing when it was 3-1 on Delgado, who eventually got out.

Oh yeah, being on the sideines I couldn't really see the strike zone, but noticed Carlos and Gomez upset with the strike zone. I figured it must have been bad if Carlos was showing the umpire up. Was it? Also, that play on third (I was sitting the furthest distance away) but it was conceivable to me that Hinske tagged the dirt instead of (was it?) Randy Winn. Was that the case?

Faithful Cheer Clubber Alex ran out to the concourse to watch the replay of the Hinske tag on TV and said that Hinske missed him.

Glad you could hear us downstairs, Keith. We were having a whale of a time.

If I were coming on time to tonight's game, I'd make a giant 17 to drape over the edge of the fifth deck where Phelpsy's grand slam went. Hrm...played hooky from work last night...can I justify two in a row?

Not that many responses today so I'll stir the pot. Did anyone else think that J.P. was really hard on Woodward last night. He stopped just short of saying that Woodward was a prima donna with no heart. For those that weren't listening. He stated that Woodward's biggest problem was that he was always injured and couldn't get anything started. Later he stated that Woodward could learn things from Menechino and despite his talent he didn't hustle everyday and "play with oomph". Somehow I made the correlation that J.P. thought that Woodward might be dogging it with the injuries.

Thoughts?

Aaron, the banner looked really cool on TV and you got a little face time too.

Also, that play on third (I was sitting the furthest distance away) but it was conceivable to me that Hinske tagged the dirt instead of (was it?) Randy Winn. Was that the case?


I remember that play, Hinske was sure upset and the throw was there miles before the runner. From the Sportsnet broadcast it was difficult to tell, they didnt have any decent camera angles that you could tell if Hinske tagged him or not, only that the throw was there and that the runner was trying to avoid the tag. The announcers didnt really seem to have a strong opinion on it either.

When I first saw it I could not believe they called him safe, it looked like a really terrible call. Upon watching the replays it does seem possible that he avoided the tag.

Did anyone else think that J.P. was really hard on Woodward last night.

Last night? He's been saying it for over 2 years with his actions.

He signed Bordick last season, tried to sign Aurilia this offseason, felt the need to find a veteran backup SS after missing Aurilia and drafted SSs with his 1st round pick in his first 2 drafts.

> Didn't know that Romanuk had started doing Jays games

Romanuk hasn't started doing Jays games. When he starts, we'll let you know. Right now, nobody knows exactly what he is doing but it sometimes sounds like a skit comedy. I know that he's a hockey guy and I shouldn't pick on him, but I'm only human.

If Phelps keeps hitting like that, I'm going to retract all my critism of keeping him benched and assume they knew what they were doing... so far I'm on the fence, but that looked good..

I heard J.P. say that he thinks Bush will develop into a Good 4th or 5th.. Anyone know where they are predicting Towers will end up??

If Phelps keeps hitting like that, I'm going to retract all my critism of keeping him benched and assume they knew what they were doing... so far I'm on the fence, but that looked good..

I heard J.P. say that he thinks Bush will develop into a Good 4th or 5th.. Anyone know where they are predicting Towers will end up??

I agree about JP on Woodward.
So you think he's always hurt... but why aren't you playing him now that he's not hurt?
I don't really think it's that big of a deal, because unlike Cash, Woodward isn't really part of the future, except as a possible backup infielder. Which is too bad, as he seems like a nice guy, and I"m pretty sure I've read that he's the only Blue Jay that lives in TO year round, and he married a local woman.

As for Romanuk, I really didn't think he was that bad. I only caught a few of the innings on TV (listened to the radio the rest of the time), and other than the "4 Run Triple!" I didn't think he screwed anythign up that badly. I thought it was sort of refreshing to see him in there actually. And I'm sure that Romanuk is a talented, competent guy at this sort of thing, so I don't doubt that if he keeps working on it he'll become better.
What's Jim Hughson doing now? He was pretty good too. I think Hughson, Schulman and Martinez spoiled us.

I notice that you guys seem to be off cuttle fish but for any die hards like myself:


Drag Queens of the Deep
Humans may think they're creative, finding countless ways to adorn themselves in the search for love, but cuttlefish have got us beat. The soft-bodied marine animals, related to octopus, have large heads ringed by tentacles and swim by gently rippling their skirt-like fins. And according to an Australian researcher, clever cuttlefish sometimes cross-dress to get a girl. Small male cuttlefish change their body color to trick larger males into thinking they're females. That gives the smaller males a chance to switch back to their normal color and mate with females, presumably while the larger males aren't looking. Surfers and snorkelers are asked to contact Bronwyn Gillanders of the South Australia Museum if they see any cuddling cuttlefish.
-- Debra Jones

I can't believe the White Sox signed Freddie Garcia for $27 mil. for 3 years. That's ridiculous. The M's have been trying to get rid of him for 2 years. They'll regret that contract. $6 mil. per season he's worth, $9 mil. no way - that's close to Vladimir Guerrero money.

Jeez: surprised to hear JP's thoughts on Woodward. I often worry with JP that he has too much of a sentamental attachment to players in the Oakland system. With his hot lust for Menechino and Bordick perhaps he has eyes for no other SS. Or he's been drooling over that Jeter faceplant highlight (now that's "oomph").

Tosca: has broken down another part-time player, Menechino. Will Woodward please get some regular playing time now?

What's Jim Hughson doing now?

Vancouver Canucks television and radio, their number one guy. Though I'm sure he's available for baseball season as the Canucks always go down in the first round.

What bugs me, is that when the Jays are at home they never catch a break on stuff like this. I can't even count the number of times a Jay has been called out when the throw beat the runner but the tag was missed. (A very common "blown" call). But when the Jays get the throw in time and the tag is missed, it's safe every time.

It doesn't ever seem to happen on the road, just in T.O.

Tosca: has broken down another part-time player, Menechino. Will Woodward please get some regular playing time now?

Is Menechino hurt?

The front Sports page of the National Post has a nice photo of that play: Hinske tagging the dirt, Aurillia sliding craftily, umpire right there looking over Hinske's shoulder.

I'm happy if the right call is made. I also get upset at the "neighbourhood call", though of course far less so if it's made in our favour.

If the "neighbourhood call" gets made we lose the art of the crafty, slight-of-hand slide.

According the National Post, Menechino, normally a part-time player, is not used to the stress of everyday play and has hurt his back. Tosca thinks he'll be ready for everyday play again in a few days.

It was a strange, blowout-filled night in the big leagues; eleven games were decided by four or more runs, and fully eight games were decided by eight runs or more:

Mets 10 at Phillies 1
Braves 14 vs. Expos 2
Devil Rays 13 at Orioles 3
Athletics 3 at Red Sox 11
Mariners 4 at Blue Jays 12
Angels 12 at White Sox 0
Royals 0 at Twins 12
Diamondbacks 0 at Dodgers 11

One 11-0 game and two 12-0 games. It's a Retrosheet question, I guess, but I wonder if there have ever been three shutout wins by double digits in the same night. Plus, the D-Rays were winning 13-0 until they put in Jorge Sosa to mop up in the bottom of the ninth!

Not only that, but the Yankees were trailing 10-3 until they scored five meaningless runs in the eighth inning to make the final score somewhat respectable.

I can't even count the number of times a Jay has been called out when the throw beat the runner but the tag was missed. (A very common "blown" call)

I know the alternate rules all part of the "charm" of baseball, but I, for one, can do without them.

If the stolen base has evolved into a force out (i.e., if the throw beats the runner, the tag -- made or not -- is irrelevant), put it in the rules.

If baserunners going for the extra base don't need to really be tagged, call it a force out and put it in the rules.

If the neighbourhood play is tolerated at second base, put it in the rules.

If the strike zone is a sideways rectangle that goes waist high but extends half a foot beyond the edge of the plate, construct a new home plate and put the new strike zone in the rules.

So many rules that are black and white are treated subjectively, as if umpires have the right to interpret them or treat them as rough guidelines. And I'm not talking about human error here, I'm talking about willfully ignoring published rules.

Either have the umpires call the rules as they now exist (and I don't mean the annual, springtime lip service to the umpires being "instructed" to enforce the published strike zone) or officially change the rules to match what is commonly accepted.

Rant over.

Just running throught the boxscores this morning and a familiar name caught my eye - Jayson Werth. Here's his line since going to the Dodgers (and coming off the DL) .308/.400/.635. It's in a small number of AB's (52) but its still interesting to see. The trade will be an interesting one to monitor over the next year or two.

In terms of blowouts, someone (I think it was King Kaufman) mentioned that you could make some money if you could get odds that the winning team will score more runs in one inning than the losing team scores in the entire game. It seems to happen about half of the time, but it sounds sort of counter intuitive.

Chuck: Exactly! I remember seeing more of the neighbourhood play in the 80s than we do now. But the strike zone really bugs me. That's why I was a fan of QuesTec (do they still have it?) Make the umpires accountable for their strike zones. The quagmire of walks for Bonds is a direct result of subjective umpires, who are either too insecure to be contrary to Bond's famous 'eye', or give him the superstar treatment that Joe Morgan so believes in. If it's a strike to Tsuyoshi Shinjo, it's a strike to Barry Bonds. Tom Glavine built his career around milking calls from umpires.

Basically, pitchers either have to throw the pitch right down the middle to Bonds, or walk him.

I cringe when I hear players described as not having heart or not playing with oomph. Because frankly in the end that perception tends to not be the overriding factor in how they perform on the field.

Remember when the Jays signed Hentgen to be a fourth starter based on the fact that they thought he pitched with "oomph" in the second half of the year? Although the low strikeout rate coupled with low hit rate suggested he was at least a bit lucky. No-one is going to question Hentgen's character but there's a limit to how much that will effect his ability to get major league hitters out.

And if guys who were perceived as dogging it or not giving it their all 100% of the time shouldn't be playing regularly then Manny Ramirez belongs nowhere near a baseball field. I think the majority of the Boston faithful were ready to run him out of town this past off-season. Heck, according to many Toronto fans and media a couple of years ago, Delgado was lazy and a bad leader and a poor example and was the biggest reason the Jays could not break 90 wins.

I'm not saying there's nothing to character and intangibles. But there has to be a balance struck between playing who you like and playing who might be best for the organization in the long term whether it's because you can use him or because he could garner some trade value. You're not going to get something significant for Chris Gomez. If you're lucky Woodward might go on a hot streak and make himself valuable.

Two years ago he hit 13 homers and posted a near .800 ops. Now he's not good enough to take playing time away from a couple of journeymen, one of which is playing out of position. That's the part I don't understand with this team where it is in the standings.

Chuck, I couldn't agree more.

This will cheer everyone up:

Prospectus, true to their stat-lovin' hearts, have a new design for their Minor League Equivalent Average pages. Way, WAY better than ever.

Those pages now include Davenpotr Translations for the current season for ALL minor leaguers. This is a huge wow. MLEs on the fly? Awesome!

Some Jays highlights...

(These are AVG/OBP/SLG and are essentially major league equivalencies... what a player would have done in his minor league appearances if he'd performed exactly as well but just in the majors).

Russ Adams 253/335/375
Gabe Gross 257/330/380
Guillermo Quiroz 235/326/398
Aaron Hill 260/339/371
Dominic Rich 255/325/386
Ty Godwin 229/295/318
John Ford-Griffin 211/289/356
Miguel Negron 270/339/470
Raul Tablado 277/341/530
Ron Davnport 249/308/491
Vito Chiaravalloti 241/323/403
Carlo Cota 246/310/374
Ryan Roberts (Dunedin) 271/338/356
Ryan Roberts (Charleston) 237/342/386
Robinzon Diaz 258/304/364

(Pitchers are listed by translated DERA (a defense-adjusted measure, PERA (a peripheral measure better for future prediction purposes), and K/9). So these are major-league translated ERAs and K/9.

David Bush 4.47, 3.56, 6.0
Josh Towers 3.51, 4.32, 5.1
Ryan Glynn 3.82, 3.82, 5.6
Josue Matos 5.71, 5.84, 5.7
Cam Reimers 4.19, 5.02, 3.0
Brandon League 3.87, 3.53, 5.4
Todd Ozias 4.91. 5.15, 5.4
Adam Peterson 3.24, 4.32, 9.4
Dustin McGowan (we miss you) 4.46, 6.06, 6.9
Josh Banks (NH) 6.21, 5.37, 5.0
Josh Banks (Dun) 3.80, 3.65, 6.8
Jamie Vermilyea (NH) 1.15, 1.73, 4.7
Jamie Vermilyea (Dun) 5.01, 4.34, 4.3
Ismael Ramirez 4.94, 3.14, 4.3
Bubbie Buzachero 3.99, 4.24, 7.2
Shawn Marcum (Dun) 5.16, 6.08, 7.7
Shawn Marcum (Chr) 4.38, 4.38, 6.0
Tom Mastny 4.02, 3.80, 4.8
Davis Romero 3.30, 2.97, 6.4
Justin James 4.49, 3.76, 5.9

And two special entries : Adrian Martin 3.54/2.83/6.4 and Chi-Hung Cheng 3.94/5.25/6.6 (listed as 23!?)

Just running throught the boxscores this morning and a familiar name caught my eye - Jayson Werth. Here's his line since going to the Dodgers (and coming off the DL) .308/.400/.635. It's in a small number of AB's (52) but its still interesting to see. The trade will be an interesting one to monitor over the next year or two.

He's drawing a lot of walks but he's also struck out 16 times which is almost once every three at bats. If that keeps up I think his average will fall to around the .250 mark. Werth has always had the power and the eye and some speed but making consitent contact has been a problem. He can still be quite a useful player but I'm thinking he'll settle in at around an .800 ops if he does well.

For me, the key play of the game was the 5-4-3 DP that the Jays turned with the bases loaded and one out with Seattle up 3-1. It's not that it was particularly difficult. It wasn't. But, this has been one of Hinske's weaknesses, getting rid of the ball quickly and with accuracy, and for him to execute in a key situation is very, very good news.

Why do I get the feeling that the All-Star break might be an unwanted intrusion in the team's flow this year, rather than a welcome rest?

Keith, do you think that Bonds' walk rate might also have something to do with the fact that he's hitting .350 with tremendous power, as well as his fine eye? And that might also explain why he's being walked intentionally so frequently?

This idea was brought up in a thread a couple days ago (by Jordan I believe) and seems appropriate to re-surface today given JP's comments about Woody.

Is there any value in moving the O-Dog over to SS? He definitely has the range and defensive ability. If I recall properly he mostly played 3rd base in the minors so he should also have the arm.

Perhaps they could give him 30-40 games during the rest of the season at short to assess if he can handle the position. Then going into next year, Adams could slide into 2nd base (to compensate for his supposed weaker arm) with a backup of Gomez and Menechino.

Since there's no minor league thread I'll post it here. The New Hampshire game is a noon start.

There must be something about MLE's that I don't understand. Looking at that list, everyone had the "discount" from their actual numbers that I would have expected other than Adams, Hill and Negron. For Adams, his MLE's are essentially his current numbers in Syracuse (yet Gross and Quiroz have the expected "discount" from their actual numbers). For Hill, it shows hims with a higher SLG (and higher overall OPS) than his actual numbers (yet other AA players have the expected discount). Same thing applies to Negron. Can anyone give me a "Readers Digest Version" of what I'm missing.

Great game last night. Romanuk was absolutely brutal. Actually made Tabler look talented. Hilarious exchange between the two when Borders stepped to the plate in the top of the 3rd(?). Romanuk commented on the "smattering of applause" received & asked Tabler if he ever got fan acknowledgement around town, at the "fish house", clearly pissing him off.

Interesting comments by Tosca after the game. Almost defensive. Despite his assertion about Phelps lacking consistency being right on the money, he had to feel a lil foolish after the fact.

Can anyone give me a "Readers Digest Version" of what I'm missing.

Craig can probably answer this better than I, but here goes. Among the factors taken into consideration are the league's parks and what they do to scoring. Syracuse, and the IL as a whole, must suppress scoring drastically enough that the offensive numbers posted at AAA are equivalent to what you'd expect in the majors, where the higher caliber of pitching and the "easier" parks are a wash.

If I recall correctly, MLE's for Syracuse players have often been a case of "what you see is what you get".

Is there any value in moving the O-Dog over to SS? He definitely has the range and defensive ability. If I recall properly he mostly played 3rd base in the minors so he should also have the arm

Michael Young successfully made the transition, so I guess it's possible.

However, it seems a shame to make Orlando move off 2B just as he's getting comfortable over there. He's worked hard to learn the position, and I think we ought to reap the benefits for a few years before asking him to learn another position.

How bad can Adams be?

Chuck, thanks for responding to my cry for help. I agree with your description that parks are taken into account. You can see how tough a place to hit New Hampshire is with the relatively small discout to those numbers accross the board. But why does that mean that two Syracuse players are treated so differently?

Adams:

Actual .266/.348/.381 - OPS .729
MLE .253/.335/.375 - OPS .710

Gross:

Actual .285/.361/.435 - .796
MLE .257/.330/.380 - .710

It's that part I don't understand, unless the MLE calculation is calculated so granuarly that it takes into account every AB and takes park factors into account for every AB. In other words it might be explained if Adams has done much better at home (at tough hitting park) than Gross who has done well in all the good hitting parks. I may have answered my own question, but I didn't think that MLE's got to that level of granularity.

Just a stab in the dark, but there's two fundamental differences betweem Adams and Gross.

1. Strikeout rate.

Adams: 34 K's in 286 AB
Gross: 65 K's in 283 AB

Perhaps the MLE adjustment for batting average is more severe if a player has a high K-rate?

2. HR power.

Perhaps the MLE adjustment for HR more severe than it is for doubles and triples?

Adams: 26 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR
Gross: 17 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR

But why does that mean that two Syracuse players are treated so differently?

Batting eye. Hitters with good BB/K ratios tend to project a lot better than hitters that strike out a lot in the minors. Adams is 34/34 giving him a really good projection, while Gross' 34/65 doesn't project as well to major league performance.

Jacko and Mike, the strike zone control is understandable and would go a long way to explain the OBP part of the equation. I'm still struggling with the SLG part of things. I don't see how Hill can be shown to have 20 points more MLE in SLG and JFG has something like 70 less SLG than his acutal.

I'd phrase the answer a little differently. Adams' BABIP this year is much lower than Gross' despite Adams' superior speed and improving power. This is perceived to be a fluke. In other words, Adams is not really hitting like a .266 hitter, nor Gross like a .285 hitter. Adams has good speed, he's making contact and he's hitting with some authority.

The interesting thing is that this happened in New Haven last year too. I'd love to see their line drive percentages to see if this can shed light on whether Gross' superior batting average is a fluke or results from his ability in fact.

Michael Young actually came up through the minors as a gold glove caliber shortstop who was converted to second base at the major league level and then put back at shortstop after A-Rod left so there is little comparison to Hudson, who was a gold glove caliber thirdbase prospect but moved due to his lack of power.

I don't know if this helps explain Hill's MLE but I've compiled his home/road stats not counting yesterday's game. (might be minor errors)

Home Ave.239 OBP .330 SLG .297
Road Ave .306 OBP .383 SLG .389

Mike Green, I think the adjustment for BABIP which you suggest (which is the correct (I think) way to statistically apply what Jacko and Mike suggested about stike zone control) makes total sense to me. It would also go some way to explaining the SLG (due to the BA impact in SLG). As I said though, I'm still not all the way there yet on how the SLG is adjusting.

Continuing on the thought that Bonds' high BB totals are ump induced:

- Mike Bordick's retirement was a sham. He was forced out by Fidel Castro. They call this the 'September Surprise' over at the Pentagon.
- Carlos Delgado was really on the DL because he wanted some 'me time'
- Ray Halliday's body has been taken over by Rod Sterling. Or DeWayne Buice. Actually, it's probably DeWayne. Rod doesn't get out much anymore.

On a happier note, very pleasing to see Phelps have a nice game. If he strings a few more together I can go back to convincing my friends that Jays will contend next year.

Keith, do you think that Bonds' walk rate might also have something to do with the fact that he's hitting .350 with tremendous power, as well as his fine eye? And that might also explain why he's being walked intentionally so frequently?

Absolutely he's a great player, but I think even that batting average has been inflated by the small strike zone given to pitchers facing him. I know umpires are doing this, they're especially bad that way in the NL. Watching Gagne pitch in the late part of his streak he was getting everything for strikes, three inches off the plate even. Stars in the NL get the "superstar treatment" from umpires.

I don't think any player ever has been intentionally walked as much as Bonds. Did Babe Ruth get free passes like this? A question for Moffatt I guess...

For me? Nah, for that sort of esoteric knowledge, you'd have to ask Burley.

my measurements are bad, getting a strike 3" off the plate isn't such a travesty. Gagne was getting them half a foot off plate called, and high as well. Yeah: high AND half a foot off the plate: Strike 3. All right Gagne, you got 3 more outs without giving up three runs in one lousy inning. I have no respect for that streak. Though I should, seeing our bullpen earlier this year!

COMN. If only Da Box had been around 1837...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=schwarz_alan&id=1835745
Y'know, I should probably include the link if I'm going to say COMN.

Totally unrelated to anything, but there's an excerpt from Alan Scharz's new book up at ESPN, and he had a chat today, both of which are interesting.
His book is The Numbers Game which is sort of a historical overview of the use of stats in baseball. Looks pretty interesting.

Further to the link provided by Fawaz, here are a few links about baseball's stats past. They're promotional pieces for the book The Number's Game by Alan Schwarz, but a decent read nonetheless.

Book Excerpt: The Number's Game
Book Review: The Number's Game

Oops, I didn't click on your link Fawaz, hence my post half an hour later discussing the same thing you'd just linked too.

http://me.woot.net
A brief diversion:

For those of you who think us computer scientists are stodgy, boring old people, I present you with my tribute to Escher.

Joe, I don't think CS guys are stodgy, boring old people. I think CS guys are stodgy, boring *young* people. :)

Seriously, the Self-Portrait thing is cool.

Actually, there is at least one stodgy Computer Scientist on earth. The old Scottish professor that I took two classes at Dalhousie from (Introduction to Programming and Data Structures) nearly 15 years ago now. The sort of guy who always ranted on about how much easier we had it now that punch cards were no more, etc. etc. I hope he's still alive.

CAn anyone help me?
this morning as i was leaving i noticed some headlines rolling through the TV screen, i think on sportsnet, but it could have been the score.
i thought it said the jays traded the cat and zaun for a package of prospects.
i came home from work to read up on it and now i dont see anything written about it, not even rumors.
did anyone else see it?
maybe it said something completely different, but i cant think of why catalanatto and zaun would be in the headlines.

I just used google news to search for recent posts with key words: trade, jays, zaun, catalanatto...no hits suggest a trade has happened yet.

yeah, this was about 12 hours ago, so i'm sure i must have not read it correctly (it was early and i was tired from playing hockey until 1am the night before). but i'm definately sure i saw those two names on the screen.

It's just a rumour that's been floating around. It won't happen until after the all star break, if at all, since Catalanotto is on the disabled list and teams almost never trade for injured players.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/columnist.jsp;jsessionid=FKKDMCHGCGGI?content=20040707_145640_3044
If you were watching Sportsnet it was probably an ad for Marty York's column on their website (COMN). He hints at the possibility that Florida is interested in those players.

thanks Brian, mystery solved!