http://www.dogsdieinhotcars.com
I tried to make a funny sentence including XTC but I choked. I guess there's just no language in my lungs....See what I mean? Just awful.

By the way, if you are fan of XTC, COMN for a new band that I've been listening to that sounds incredibly similar. Go to the media section and listen to Godhopping and I Love Because I Have To. Better yet, watch the videos there. It's good for listening to early 80's music and not being accused of being an old curmudgeon.

I predict they'll win 55.

Sorry: 37 wins

As I'm still by my increasingly unlikely prediction of 84 wins, I'll way the Jays will win 48 of their remaining games.

lets be optimistic and say they'll finish at .500. That means 45 wins doesn't it!!!

I might be there tonight, but I'll definitely be there tomorrow. Tonight depends on the weather -- if it's nice tonight, I'll be going to see the team that my wife coaches, otherwise we'll be at the Dome.

Drum alert! It's coming tomorrow. I'll post a Cheer Club thread shortly.

I was thinking a bit about comments from yesterday about how the O-Dog is underappreciated outside of Toronto. Well, the good news is that somebody likes him: in the MLB Sportsclix game, which has 200 figures but really only about 160 different players are represented, Toronto's representatives are Roy Halladay, Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske and Orlando Hudson.

A totally improbable 53 wins, including some meaningful ones in September.

I'm not sanguine about how long Chulk and Frasor can keep this up. In 55 combined innings, they've walked 25 batters and struck out 42; those are not terrific ratios, but they've been overshadowed because Chulk and Frasor have allowed just 37 hits so far. Eventually those balls will start dropping in, and that won't be too much fun to watch. Kudos to them for their performance so far, but nobody should get too excited.

I like the "win prediction" idea, I think 500 for the rest of the season, so 41.

I think its almost the "optimism thermometer" I was talking about earlier, I'd be curious what people thought of this year, and the next 2...

I'll go (77), (78), (88)

Reasons, 500 for the rest of this season,
Slight improvement in 2005 due to maturing pitching but loss of Carlos
Bigger improvement in 2006 as young hitters and pitchers start to reach their potential.

Who will get bumped when Delgado comes off the DL? Peterson?

Do we still have extra pitchers up? I think it has to be one of them, unless Gomez is willing to play OF, then Clark..

ABORT.

Scratch that, Clark isn't our 4th OF, he's our 3rd right now.. he stays...

Is File active? Maybe him?

Actually Berg probably is the third outfielder, but with 13 pitchers, I gotta think Peterson or File draw the short stick.

File's usage is similar to Peterson, but his results are somewhat better... My guess is depends on if they want Peterson to get the "taste of the majors" for a while, or if they want him to have some success at AAA.. I'd say they leave him up to keep David Bush and Alex Rios company.

Are Clark and Berg Platooning? or just sharing the job?
- Clark bats left.. Berg Right,
- but the vsL/vsR splits are
- 125/228 and 254/250

Hate to say it but playing Berg looks like the best option,
esp against lefties ... Clark is 1/8 there

...because Chulk and Frasor have allowed just 37 hits so far. Eventually those balls will start dropping in

Dropping in and heading out. Neither has yet to allow a homerun.

I'm not worried about Frasor's control - someone mentioned that 4 of those walks were intentional. He will eventually give up some homeruns, but his ability to spot the fastball means walks shouldn't be a problem.

I've seen evidence of the cutter he's working on. If he's able to refine it into an asset that should help him induce pop ups and weak ground balls if he can get it in the kitchen.

The most disturbing news of the day is that apparently the whole world has been in Moffatt's mouth. I can't look at anything the same way as I once did.

Chuck, but isn't preventing HR a skill, as opposed to BABIP which is mostly luck? (Fairly small sample sizes for both notwithstanding...)

Does anyone know the record for doubles in one season in organized baseball? Earl Webb has the ML record with 67, I know that. The reason I ask is that in the Eastern League, Trenton OF Kevin Reese has 37 doubles in 78 games, and looks to have a shot at Webb.

The minor league record must be higher, but I thought I'd check if anyone knew.

Chuck, but isn't preventing HR a skill, as opposed to BABIP which is mostly luck?

Certainly it is. But I wouldn't count on 0 HR in 55 IP being their true level. Even if they were very strong at preventing homeruns, you'd still expect them to have yielded 3 or 4 by now.

In my 3 minute Google search, I couldn't find that info for you Craig, but I did find out that the Eastern League all-time record for doubles in a single season is 54, set in 1924 by Dewey Steffens.

Reese probably won't have a shot at that record, since he was called up to Columbus, but surely the minor league record is a possibility. I'm guessing the record was probably set in the PCL in the 20s or 30s. Tony Lazzeri? Joe D maybe?

My guess is that someone from the PCL has the record - they used to play 200 games a year.

To get to 81 wins the Jays need 45 out of the last 80. BUT, we play the Spankies 19 games in the last half. Highly unlikely we get back to 500 this year. Pity.

The good news is Halliday, Lily, Batista and Bush set us up nicely for next year. The bad news is we now know how much we're going to miss the big D's bat.

It looks like if payroll comes down to 48 million, as was talked about before the season, we'll have 7 million or so to re-sign Delgado (highly unlikely for that sum) so it looks like JP has 7 million to find lightenin' in a bottle somewhere. Good luck JP!

The most disturbing news of the day is that apparently the whole world has been in Moffatt's mouth. I can't look at anything the same way as I once did.

At least it explains that giant uvula in the sky this morning.

47 as Bush, Frasor, and Rios become media darlings across North America...

At least it explains that giant uvula in the sky this morning.

So that's what that was. Whew.

The Yankees don't scare me. It's rather insane that we play them 19 times in 80 games but whatever. Just gives us that much more opportunity to gain ground on them. Getting Delgado back will be a huge boost, and now hopefully most of the bad karma is out of the way for the year. I know some will say it's just wishful thinking, but I think this team is miles better than what we've seen so far. I'll predict 46 wins to close out the season.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/rrereport04.html
I was tooling thru Michael Wolverton's reliever stats (COMN), and saw some interesting numbers:

Frasor: 14.5 ARP in 34.3 IP
Chulk: 10.8 ARP in 19 IP
[...]
Adams: -5.2 ARP in 38 IP
L'berg: -5.2 ARP in 26.6 IP
Nakamura: -6.5 ARP in 23 IP

(did someone say Arson Squad? Adams + Kerry are also in the bottom 10 in allowing inherited runners to score)

Frasor+Chulk are both in the top 30 ML relievers. The kinda sad part is that the Jays' pen as a whole is at -2.0 ARP. Which means, that if you take out Frasor and Chulk, the rest of the bullpen is pretty much at the level of Cinicinati's bp. Which aint pretty.

The bullpen does seem better than last years, but y'gotta wonder how bad it'd be without Frasor and Vinnie.

Perhaps they could have "guaranteed loss night" featuring the Arson Squad. Have to convince the offence not to score too many runs, though.
By-the-way, one thing that the stats don't show is luck. Frasor seems to have lots of it, and more power to him, I say.

From the "Things Could Always Be Worse" category:

Josh Beckett is BACK on the DL with blister problems.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statalbat/
Ivan Rodriguez has had an amazing half-season. As of June 25, his Line Drive%/BABIP/RISP line is .243/.416/.452. It's very, very unlikely that he'll be able to maintain anything like these numbers over the course of a full season. The man might be a little lucky, and as a catcher, he'll probably wear down as the season progresses, but right now he's just hitting the ball on the screws. COMN for the full details courtesy of the Hardball Times.

Quick preview of the Advance Scout, to be posted in about 15 minutes: For 135 million points, can you name the six ex-Mariners that will appear in the 2004 All-Star Game (without peeking)?

Ooo

Ken Griffey Jr.
Randy Johnson
Alex Rodriguez
Carlos Guillen
Armando Benitez (Does he count?)

I'm missing one, or two if Benitez doesn't count.

Carlos Guillen, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Randy Johnson, Freddy Garcia, David Bell?

(I admit that I'm not sure about the last two)

D'oh. David Bell and Freddy Garcia indeed.

That sixth one is tricky, though.

A-Rod, Griffey, Guillen, Unit are easy. Armando Benitez must be going. I bet the last one's real obvious...

Griffey, A-rod, Big Unit, Benitez, Guillen ... I got nothin....

http://www.texas-league.com/records/individual/
COMN for a page listing Texas League records

Most Doubles in Season:
70 -- Rhino Williams, Dallas 1925

Of course, no idea if it is the professional record, but it's more than Webb's 67.

Wasn't Biggio on a ridiculous doubles pace a few years back but he cooled down at the end of the year?

I didn't know Bell and Garcia were going :-S And I thought BEnitez was :-S Goes to show what I know

Is Mike Cameron going? :

I'm stumped.

Bell and Garcia aren't going, I'm fairly sure Benitez is.

You're not counting Ichiro, are you?

Technically, he's not an ex-Mariner.

If you want to include Yankees coaches that Torre has invited, Luis Sojo and Rich Monteleone (3 games in 1987) can be added to the list.

David Bell and Freddy Garcia aren't going as far as I know, unless they're going to be injury replacements, but those won't be announced until after the 32nd man vote.

Rich Monteleone and Luis Sojo were both Mariners. They'll be there as coaches, but I don't think that's what Mike was getting at (and no, that wasn't off the top of my head).

Even after you look at the list, it's not immediately obvious.

I gave up a while ago and started looking at the list, and I still haven't figured it out. :(

It's probably some guy that played in the minors for Seattle, but never played for the big club, isn't it?

I got Griffey, Benitez, Unit, A-Rod, Guillen, and....hmmm...

I know that David Ortiz was drafted (or signed, I guess) by the Mariners, but he didn't play for the big league team if I remember correctly (part of a package to the Twins involving Joe Mays I think).

It's Livan Hernandez, who defected from Cuba in a boat. Mike is such a clever guy...

Nope, my memory was only half-correct; Ortiz was a PTBNL for a trade between MIN/SEA involving Dave Hollins).

No, I'm thinking about Orlando. Never mind. I'm stumped again.

Quick preview of the Advance Scout, to be posted in about 15 minutes

Who is the sixth player? I've already waited 15 minutes four times! ;)

If it's Ortiz or any one of these loopholes (farmhand, part of a 3-way trade etc), I'm going to sulk.

Sulk away, Fawaz. It's Ortiz. I framed the question poorly; I should have said six players "let go by the Mariners."

135 million points for Ryan Lind (first to name the five players), 100 million to Blair for identifying Ortiz and minus 1 billion to me. My fault, guys.

And sorry for the Scout delay. It'll be up in two minutes...and I mean it this time.

Garcia signed a 3 year extension with the Chisox. No link, heard it on the FAN.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/scorecard/mlbnews.asp?articleID=105140
Here's a story on Garcia's contract. COMN. $8-9-10 million for 05-06-07.

Kenny Williams is a moron. Doc's contract looks even better now by comparison.

Ken Huckaby was claimed off waivers by Baltimore, FWIW.

I'd rather have Miguel Batista than Freddy Garcia. Seriously. And the fact that Batista is going to make close to $5 million less over the next two years makes me appreciate his (Batista's) signing even more.

I found this on another message board. I apologize if this has been discussed already, either on this thread or another one:

"Carlos Delgado's agent, David Sloane, took no time in shooting down a rumored three-way deal that would have sent Garciaparra to the Dodgers, shortstop Cesar Izturis to the Blue Jays, and slugging first baseman Carlos Delgado to the Red Sox. Delgado, eligible for free agency after the season, has full no-trade protection in his contract, and Sloane said he hasn't heard a word from the Blue Jays. 'I think they know what our answer would be,' Sloane said. 'No.' That answer won't change, Sloane said, unless there is a team willing to give Delgado an extension at his current rate, which is $17 million a pop, and that isn't going to happen ..."

An extension at $17 million a pop? So we can't trade him (no team is dumb enough to extend him at that price) or offer him arbitration to get draft picks next year (risk getting stuck with his bloated contract). That would royally suck. Hope that isn't the case.

Carlos Delgado's agent, David Sloane, took no time in shooting down a rumored three-way deal

Uhhh...yeah. There's no way J.P. would trade for Izturis.
I wonder who proposed THAT one. Worthy of Marty York.

WHERE'S MY CUTTLEFISH?