Take heart, fellow Jays fans: It could always be worse.
Despite being far healthier than the Jays (only Raul Ibanez and the scuffling Rafael Soriano are noteworthy members of the DL), the Mariners come to town with an $81 million payroll (not counting the departed Kaz Sasaki), a popgun offence and a shaky bullpen, just two and a half seasons removed from a 116-win season. Seattle got their hats handed to them in St. Louis, and it's a fragile bunch of Mariners entering tonight's series opener.
This week's Scout features an exuberant Aussie, a beleaguered bullpen, a five-pack of slumping sluggers and a very unusual condition on which John Olerud will accept a trade. Tonight's Moyer-Batista match-up should be a fast-moving pitchers' duel, and some very promising rookie hurlers will be on display in the other two games.
On to the Advance Scout!
* The M's come to town in a deep funk, having gone 3-10 in their last 13 games ... Seattle had a particularly tough time with St. Louis this weekend. In the three-game sweep, the Cards outscored the Mariners 21-4 ... The M's went 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position in the series ...
* Even adjusting for ballpark, the M's have been punchless at the plate this season ... They're last in the AL in batting average (.254) and home runs (59), and way last in runs (322) and slugging (.376) ... Bret Boone has been candid: "What has been the main reason our team has struggled? Well, the defence has been OK, the pitching has been good. The offense has not done the job...period" ... Boone went on to specifically identify Edgar Martinez, Scott Spiezio, John Olerud, Rich Aurilia -- and himself -- as "five pretty damn big voids" this season ...
* Let's go through those "voids" in turn: First, Martinez has homered just once in his last 34 games ... His .252 /.347/.384 line has lowered his estimable career averages to .313/.420/.520 ... His OBP is the lowest it's been since 1989 ... Moreover, he's on pace to do something the famously selective slugger's never done in his career: Strike out more than 100 times ... Like many Mariners, Edgar has not been able to hit righties (.244/.324/.355) ... His road line, though respectable and way better than his Safeco numbers, still looks rather modest compared to what we expect from him (.276/.375/.455) ...
* After a solid April that earned him a couple of Andujar votes, Spiezio has been a virtual zero at the plate ... He followed a .194/.234/.350 May with a .188/.296/.333 June -- and he's started July 2 for 12 (.167) ... Seven of the glove man/alt-rocker's eight home runs have come from the left side. As a righthanded hitter, he's only mustered a .196/.274/.321 line ...
* Old friend Olerud is suffering through his worst slugging season of his career ... He's struggled against lefties this year even more than usual, going .246/.328/.298 against southpaws with no homers ... Sure, his RBI will be affected by the Mariners' relatively low team OBP. But he's hitting just .208 with a .283 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position ... With two outs, those numbers drop to .087 and .130 ... Olerud refused to waive his no-trade clause last week, scuttling a Bavasi deal. The opposing club was not named, except that Bavasi said it was not the widely-rumoured Red Sox ... Olerud would like to stay at home in Seattle, but would accept a trade to a more family-friendly club. Olerud's 5-year-old son Garrett is not allowed on the field at Safeco or on Mariners team flights; clubs offering an exception might induce Johnny O to accept a deal. Olerud: "Those are perks you don't get here" ...
* Aurilia's season line stood at an utterly anemic .226/.289/.312 on June 15. Since then, he's picked up a bit, hitting in 11 of his last 13 (.311) -- with two of his four homers during that span ... He's been dreadful against righthanded pitching, going .229/.299/.314 ...
* And finally, Boone comes in swinging a hot bat, as he's on a seven-game hitting streak (.393), with two homers, six runs and seven RBI over that time frame ... Incredibly, this streak raised his season numbers to a mere .232/.299/.389 on the season ... He's having his worst year -- by far -- since his '97 year with the Reds ... He's struggled mightily against righthanded pitching, hitting .228/.280/.342 with 50 (!) strikeouts against righties alone ... Boone lost a home plate collision with old friend Mike Matheny in Sunday's 2-1 defeat. An admiring Boone: "Matheny's a good dude" ...
* Tonight's starter, soft-tossing Jamie Moyer, will turn 42 in November ... Moyer was a bit shaky in April, but since has posted two consecutive months with ERAs below 3.30 ... Moyer's rotation spot was shuffled a bit after a rain delay ended his night on Friday after just two innings. Moyer agreed with Melvin's decision to lift him after the two-hour delay, and was shocked to see Woody Williams return to the mound (and pitch effectively) ... Bill Bavasi has said that Seattle will not deal the veteran, but that hasn't stopped scores of scouts from attending Moyer starts ...
* Ichiro was elected to the All-Star game, but he's no longer a landslide choice among fans ... Oddly, the slap hitter from the left side hits lefties much better than righties. He boasts an impressive .347/.420/.480 line against southpaws ... He's been picking his spots better on the basepaths of late, and he's been successful in 14 of his last 15 steal attempts ... Ichiro admitted to surprise at getting voted onto the A.L. squad, and to frustration at the growing number of questions from two baseball-hungry media cultures about why the big-budget M's are struggling ... Ichiro was asked if he'd be entering the Home Run Derby this season. Ichiro: "If there was a bunting competition, I'd enter" ...
* Dave Hansen has long been a legendary pinch-hitter -- and I have to confess, I'm not sure why ... His career pinch-hitting numbers are a rather average .246/.360/.381 ... Ironically, Hansen's hitting .412 when he gets the start this season, and just .154 in 33 pinch-hitting appearances ...
* Long man Ron Villone's walk rate is a bit high (26 in under 50 IP), but he's been tough to hit and therefore effective ... Lefties are hitting just .174 off Villone, which is even more impressive given that the journeyman is very seldom used as a LOOGY. 26 of his 32 appearances have been of one full inning or longer ...
* Wednesday's starter, Travis Blackley, made his big-league debut on Thursday ... The tall Australian finesse-type lefty got the call personally from Bob Melvin late on Wednesday night, asking him if he'd be interested in making the drive from AAA Tacoma to pitch Thursday's matinee. Blackley: "I said as calmly as I could, 'Sure, why not?'" ... He wasn't perfect, but by limiting the potent Rangers to four runs in 5 2/3 innings, he was good enough to earn his first ever win, 8-4 ... Blackley's self-assessment: "Not too bad...I didn't have any filthy pitches" ... Melvin described Blackley as "a command guy who pitches to both sides," and indeed, 64 of his 108 pitches were for strikes ... Blackley described his first-ever start as "an adrenaline rush...I could go again" ... Blackley on a mighty swing and a miss from Alfonso Soriano: "He had the biggest hack I'd ever seen" ... Blackley was just the sixth Mariner to win his career debut with the club, and the first since Joel Pineiro in 2000 ... Because Blackley's staying with the big club, his spot on the AAA All-Star team has been given to Tacoma teammate Scott Atchison ... Clint Nageotte was sent down to make room for the Aussie. Nageotte had earned more of a reputation for his perspiration than his pitching when going 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA ...
* Reliever Julio Mateo has a bit of a tendency to leave the ball up -- and he's given up three home runs in his last three appearances ... He's simply dominated the Jays over his career, though. His all-time line against the Jays: 9 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 13 K ...
* Rookie lefthander Matt Thornton has finally made the big leagues after being the M's' first-round pick in 1998 out of Grand Valley State ... Thornton pitched a sparkling four shutout innings in his major league debut against the Padres, but was tagged by the hot-hitting Cardinals on Friday night for five hits, five walks and five runs in just 2 1/3 innings, as he took the loss ...
* Randy Winn enters this series having hit in six of his last seven games ... Winn's numbers suffer particularly at spacious Safeco Field. He's a respectable .313/.392/.438 on the road ... It's a theme for the power-deficient Mariners this season, but Winn's lacklustre .393 slugging percentage is his worst since his injury-plagued 2000 season ...
* Thursday's starter, lanky Ryan Franklin, has been tagged in each of his last three starts ... His combined line: 0-3, with 16 1/3 IP, 27 H, 17 R, 6 HR, 6 BB, 10 K ... On Saturday, Franklin described the "domino" effect of the Mariners' poor play of late, saying it's affecting the entire team ... Melvin admitted to leaving Franklin in too long on Saturday -- but with Moyer going only two innings on Friday, the skipper felt like he had little choice ...
* Old friend Pat Borders remains an all-time tough guy and a terrific clubhouse influence, but at 41, Pat just can't hit big-league pitching anymore ... The '92 World Series MVP is hitting just .174/.191/.283, with one walk and eleven Ks ...
* Compared to his banjo-hitting brethren, Jolbert Cabrera has been somewhat passable with the bat (.282) ... That said, the Colombian is practically allergic to taking a pitch. He's walked four times all season, as opposed to 34 strikeouts ...
* The unfortunately named J.J. Putz has pitched like a...um, bad pitcher lately ... Over his last five outings, he's surrendered 10 runs in 10 2/3 IP, swelling his ERA from 3.98 to a rather poor 5.52 ... Putz walked So Taguchi (!) with the bases loaded on Friday night ...
* After dazzling with the best year of his career during his All-Star 2003 season, Shigetoshi Hasegawa has disappointed with his worst year on North American soil in 2004 ... After walking just 18 batters in 73 IP last year, Shiggy has already issued 20 free passes in half as many innings ... Away from Safeco, Hasegawa's frankly been awful: his road resume includes a 9.19 ERA, a 10/8 BB/K ratio, a .306 opposing batting average and all three of his home runs allowed ... Righties are hitting .299 off the formerly deceptive righthander -- nearly an 80-point jump over 2003 ...
* Promising catcher Miguel Olivo, acquired from the White Sox in the Garcia deal, is suffering from kidney stones and was placed on the DL. Infielder Justin Leone took his place after tallying an impressive 21 home runs with the Tacoma Rainiers ...
* The Mariners succeeded in signing shortstop Matt Tuiasosopo, their third-round pick out of a Seattle-area high school ... The deal was a shock to college football fans, as the brother of NFL quarterback Marques and son of ex-NFLer Manu was widely assumed to be the QB of the future for the Washington Huskies ... The kid was forthright at his press conference: "It was in my heart to go play baseball, especially for the Mariners" ...
* Each of these departures had its own unique set of circumstances, but the fact remains that there are six players let go or traded away by the Mariners in this year's All-Star Game: David Ortiz, Carlos Guillen, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Armando Benitez ...
* Despite the rapid decline of the club's fortunes, and despite the potential fire sale triggered by the Freddy Garcia trade, the Seattle brass has vowed to retool rather than rebuild this offseason. CEO Howard Lincoln has said that the club's approximate $90 million budget for salaries will be "certainly no less" for 2005 ...
Probable Batting Orders
* Note: The Jays are not scheduled to start a lefthanded pitcher this series.
vs. RH
9 Ichiro
8/7 Winn
4 Boone
3 Olerud
7 Cabrera/8 Bocachica
DH Martinez/Hansen
6 Aurilia/Leone
5 Spiezio
2 Wilson/Borders
Pitching Probables
Tuesday: LH Moyer vs. Batista
Wednesday: LH Blackley vs. Towers
Thursday: RH Franklin vs. Bush
Bullpen Usage
Long: Villone L, Thornton L
Short: Mateo R, Putz R
Setup: Hasegawa R, M Myers L
Closer: Guardado L
Despite being far healthier than the Jays (only Raul Ibanez and the scuffling Rafael Soriano are noteworthy members of the DL), the Mariners come to town with an $81 million payroll (not counting the departed Kaz Sasaki), a popgun offence and a shaky bullpen, just two and a half seasons removed from a 116-win season. Seattle got their hats handed to them in St. Louis, and it's a fragile bunch of Mariners entering tonight's series opener.
This week's Scout features an exuberant Aussie, a beleaguered bullpen, a five-pack of slumping sluggers and a very unusual condition on which John Olerud will accept a trade. Tonight's Moyer-Batista match-up should be a fast-moving pitchers' duel, and some very promising rookie hurlers will be on display in the other two games.
On to the Advance Scout!
* The M's come to town in a deep funk, having gone 3-10 in their last 13 games ... Seattle had a particularly tough time with St. Louis this weekend. In the three-game sweep, the Cards outscored the Mariners 21-4 ... The M's went 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position in the series ...
* Even adjusting for ballpark, the M's have been punchless at the plate this season ... They're last in the AL in batting average (.254) and home runs (59), and way last in runs (322) and slugging (.376) ... Bret Boone has been candid: "What has been the main reason our team has struggled? Well, the defence has been OK, the pitching has been good. The offense has not done the job...period" ... Boone went on to specifically identify Edgar Martinez, Scott Spiezio, John Olerud, Rich Aurilia -- and himself -- as "five pretty damn big voids" this season ...
* Let's go through those "voids" in turn: First, Martinez has homered just once in his last 34 games ... His .252 /.347/.384 line has lowered his estimable career averages to .313/.420/.520 ... His OBP is the lowest it's been since 1989 ... Moreover, he's on pace to do something the famously selective slugger's never done in his career: Strike out more than 100 times ... Like many Mariners, Edgar has not been able to hit righties (.244/.324/.355) ... His road line, though respectable and way better than his Safeco numbers, still looks rather modest compared to what we expect from him (.276/.375/.455) ...
* After a solid April that earned him a couple of Andujar votes, Spiezio has been a virtual zero at the plate ... He followed a .194/.234/.350 May with a .188/.296/.333 June -- and he's started July 2 for 12 (.167) ... Seven of the glove man/alt-rocker's eight home runs have come from the left side. As a righthanded hitter, he's only mustered a .196/.274/.321 line ...
* Old friend Olerud is suffering through his worst slugging season of his career ... He's struggled against lefties this year even more than usual, going .246/.328/.298 against southpaws with no homers ... Sure, his RBI will be affected by the Mariners' relatively low team OBP. But he's hitting just .208 with a .283 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position ... With two outs, those numbers drop to .087 and .130 ... Olerud refused to waive his no-trade clause last week, scuttling a Bavasi deal. The opposing club was not named, except that Bavasi said it was not the widely-rumoured Red Sox ... Olerud would like to stay at home in Seattle, but would accept a trade to a more family-friendly club. Olerud's 5-year-old son Garrett is not allowed on the field at Safeco or on Mariners team flights; clubs offering an exception might induce Johnny O to accept a deal. Olerud: "Those are perks you don't get here" ...
* Aurilia's season line stood at an utterly anemic .226/.289/.312 on June 15. Since then, he's picked up a bit, hitting in 11 of his last 13 (.311) -- with two of his four homers during that span ... He's been dreadful against righthanded pitching, going .229/.299/.314 ...
* And finally, Boone comes in swinging a hot bat, as he's on a seven-game hitting streak (.393), with two homers, six runs and seven RBI over that time frame ... Incredibly, this streak raised his season numbers to a mere .232/.299/.389 on the season ... He's having his worst year -- by far -- since his '97 year with the Reds ... He's struggled mightily against righthanded pitching, hitting .228/.280/.342 with 50 (!) strikeouts against righties alone ... Boone lost a home plate collision with old friend Mike Matheny in Sunday's 2-1 defeat. An admiring Boone: "Matheny's a good dude" ...
* Tonight's starter, soft-tossing Jamie Moyer, will turn 42 in November ... Moyer was a bit shaky in April, but since has posted two consecutive months with ERAs below 3.30 ... Moyer's rotation spot was shuffled a bit after a rain delay ended his night on Friday after just two innings. Moyer agreed with Melvin's decision to lift him after the two-hour delay, and was shocked to see Woody Williams return to the mound (and pitch effectively) ... Bill Bavasi has said that Seattle will not deal the veteran, but that hasn't stopped scores of scouts from attending Moyer starts ...
* Ichiro was elected to the All-Star game, but he's no longer a landslide choice among fans ... Oddly, the slap hitter from the left side hits lefties much better than righties. He boasts an impressive .347/.420/.480 line against southpaws ... He's been picking his spots better on the basepaths of late, and he's been successful in 14 of his last 15 steal attempts ... Ichiro admitted to surprise at getting voted onto the A.L. squad, and to frustration at the growing number of questions from two baseball-hungry media cultures about why the big-budget M's are struggling ... Ichiro was asked if he'd be entering the Home Run Derby this season. Ichiro: "If there was a bunting competition, I'd enter" ...
* Dave Hansen has long been a legendary pinch-hitter -- and I have to confess, I'm not sure why ... His career pinch-hitting numbers are a rather average .246/.360/.381 ... Ironically, Hansen's hitting .412 when he gets the start this season, and just .154 in 33 pinch-hitting appearances ...
* Long man Ron Villone's walk rate is a bit high (26 in under 50 IP), but he's been tough to hit and therefore effective ... Lefties are hitting just .174 off Villone, which is even more impressive given that the journeyman is very seldom used as a LOOGY. 26 of his 32 appearances have been of one full inning or longer ...
* Wednesday's starter, Travis Blackley, made his big-league debut on Thursday ... The tall Australian finesse-type lefty got the call personally from Bob Melvin late on Wednesday night, asking him if he'd be interested in making the drive from AAA Tacoma to pitch Thursday's matinee. Blackley: "I said as calmly as I could, 'Sure, why not?'" ... He wasn't perfect, but by limiting the potent Rangers to four runs in 5 2/3 innings, he was good enough to earn his first ever win, 8-4 ... Blackley's self-assessment: "Not too bad...I didn't have any filthy pitches" ... Melvin described Blackley as "a command guy who pitches to both sides," and indeed, 64 of his 108 pitches were for strikes ... Blackley described his first-ever start as "an adrenaline rush...I could go again" ... Blackley on a mighty swing and a miss from Alfonso Soriano: "He had the biggest hack I'd ever seen" ... Blackley was just the sixth Mariner to win his career debut with the club, and the first since Joel Pineiro in 2000 ... Because Blackley's staying with the big club, his spot on the AAA All-Star team has been given to Tacoma teammate Scott Atchison ... Clint Nageotte was sent down to make room for the Aussie. Nageotte had earned more of a reputation for his perspiration than his pitching when going 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA ...
* Reliever Julio Mateo has a bit of a tendency to leave the ball up -- and he's given up three home runs in his last three appearances ... He's simply dominated the Jays over his career, though. His all-time line against the Jays: 9 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 13 K ...
* Rookie lefthander Matt Thornton has finally made the big leagues after being the M's' first-round pick in 1998 out of Grand Valley State ... Thornton pitched a sparkling four shutout innings in his major league debut against the Padres, but was tagged by the hot-hitting Cardinals on Friday night for five hits, five walks and five runs in just 2 1/3 innings, as he took the loss ...
* Randy Winn enters this series having hit in six of his last seven games ... Winn's numbers suffer particularly at spacious Safeco Field. He's a respectable .313/.392/.438 on the road ... It's a theme for the power-deficient Mariners this season, but Winn's lacklustre .393 slugging percentage is his worst since his injury-plagued 2000 season ...
* Thursday's starter, lanky Ryan Franklin, has been tagged in each of his last three starts ... His combined line: 0-3, with 16 1/3 IP, 27 H, 17 R, 6 HR, 6 BB, 10 K ... On Saturday, Franklin described the "domino" effect of the Mariners' poor play of late, saying it's affecting the entire team ... Melvin admitted to leaving Franklin in too long on Saturday -- but with Moyer going only two innings on Friday, the skipper felt like he had little choice ...
* Old friend Pat Borders remains an all-time tough guy and a terrific clubhouse influence, but at 41, Pat just can't hit big-league pitching anymore ... The '92 World Series MVP is hitting just .174/.191/.283, with one walk and eleven Ks ...
* Compared to his banjo-hitting brethren, Jolbert Cabrera has been somewhat passable with the bat (.282) ... That said, the Colombian is practically allergic to taking a pitch. He's walked four times all season, as opposed to 34 strikeouts ...
* The unfortunately named J.J. Putz has pitched like a...um, bad pitcher lately ... Over his last five outings, he's surrendered 10 runs in 10 2/3 IP, swelling his ERA from 3.98 to a rather poor 5.52 ... Putz walked So Taguchi (!) with the bases loaded on Friday night ...
* After dazzling with the best year of his career during his All-Star 2003 season, Shigetoshi Hasegawa has disappointed with his worst year on North American soil in 2004 ... After walking just 18 batters in 73 IP last year, Shiggy has already issued 20 free passes in half as many innings ... Away from Safeco, Hasegawa's frankly been awful: his road resume includes a 9.19 ERA, a 10/8 BB/K ratio, a .306 opposing batting average and all three of his home runs allowed ... Righties are hitting .299 off the formerly deceptive righthander -- nearly an 80-point jump over 2003 ...
* Promising catcher Miguel Olivo, acquired from the White Sox in the Garcia deal, is suffering from kidney stones and was placed on the DL. Infielder Justin Leone took his place after tallying an impressive 21 home runs with the Tacoma Rainiers ...
* The Mariners succeeded in signing shortstop Matt Tuiasosopo, their third-round pick out of a Seattle-area high school ... The deal was a shock to college football fans, as the brother of NFL quarterback Marques and son of ex-NFLer Manu was widely assumed to be the QB of the future for the Washington Huskies ... The kid was forthright at his press conference: "It was in my heart to go play baseball, especially for the Mariners" ...
* Each of these departures had its own unique set of circumstances, but the fact remains that there are six players let go or traded away by the Mariners in this year's All-Star Game: David Ortiz, Carlos Guillen, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Armando Benitez ...
* Despite the rapid decline of the club's fortunes, and despite the potential fire sale triggered by the Freddy Garcia trade, the Seattle brass has vowed to retool rather than rebuild this offseason. CEO Howard Lincoln has said that the club's approximate $90 million budget for salaries will be "certainly no less" for 2005 ...
Probable Batting Orders
* Note: The Jays are not scheduled to start a lefthanded pitcher this series.
vs. RH
9 Ichiro
8/7 Winn
4 Boone
3 Olerud
7 Cabrera/8 Bocachica
DH Martinez/Hansen
6 Aurilia/Leone
5 Spiezio
2 Wilson/Borders
Pitching Probables
Tuesday: LH Moyer vs. Batista
Wednesday: LH Blackley vs. Towers
Thursday: RH Franklin vs. Bush
Bullpen Usage
Long: Villone L, Thornton L
Short: Mateo R, Putz R
Setup: Hasegawa R, M Myers L
Closer: Guardado L
