Halfway through the minor-league season, it's looking like a good-news bad-news year for the Jays' organization. Some prospects have been derailed by injuries and others by poor performance, while others have broken out and some are charging headlong up the organizational ladder. Here's the latest look at the Toronto farm system.
I should note at the outset that neither Auburn nor Pulaski players will be reviewed in this report; their seasons are just beginning and the sample sizes they've produced are too small to conclude anything beyond "X is off to a great start" or "Y has begun the season slowly." We'll have a complete look at all 6 levels of the system this time next month.
AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
Russ Adams, SS, Born August 30, 1980
2004 Syracuse
278 AB, 30 R, .270/.351/.388, 26 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 33 BB, 33 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
A red-hot May gave way to a fine June in which Adams maintained his solid walk rate, added a few more doubles to the cause, and generally held steady, though he was in something of a slump as July approached. After some steadier play at shortstop the previous month, the throwing yips caught up to him again and his errors totals increased (he’s now at 20 halfway through the season). The question now, though, isn’t if but when Adams will be playing in the Skydome infield.
Chris Woodward has pretty much established himself to be a solid but injury-prone backup, not someone you can ask to start 145 games a year. The Jays likely don’t want another stopgap year from Chris Gomez and his ilk, and even if Aaron Hill is destined for shortstop, it won’t be in 2005. Free-agent shortstops will probably be in short supply this winter, and in any event the Jays will be shopping primarily for pitching and first base help. The remaining possibility is that Orlando Hudson could move to short and Adams would take over at second base, but the team may be reluctant to move a Gold Glove second baseman in the making. The likeliest outcome is that Russ Adams will be playing shortstop in Toronto no later than next April. If so, he’ll hit .270, walk a lot, steal a few bases and adjust as best he can to major-league artificial-turf grounders. More on the future Toronto infield in the Aaron Hill section, below.
David Bush, RHP, 11/09/79
2004 Syracuse
6-6, 4.06, 16 G, 16 GS, 99 IP, 108 H, 20 BB, 88 K, 7 HR, 20.6% KBF
There’s probably no point in mentioning him here, because Bush has been called up the majors and will, barring a Mike Smith-like meltdown, probably not be back down to the minors. So let’s take a brief look at his key minor-league pitching numbers: 292 IP, 268 H, 57 BB, 284 K. His hits allowed and ERA at Syracuse weren’t deeply reassuring, and Bush should come with the caveat that between now and the end of the season, he’s going to get bombed back to the Stone Age at least once. Try not to be discouraged if he does: hardly any pitcher adjusts seamlessly to the majors, and Bush is around the plate so much that he’s going to get rocked when he misses. But his pitches have power and movement; his command is extraordinary; he’s smart and durable; and he knows what he’s doing out there. He’ll be 25 in November, and he’s as ready as he’s going to be.
Shawn Fagan, 1B, 02/03/78
2004 Syracuse
244 AB, 33 R, .225/.338/.324, 9 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 39 BB, 60 K
The embers of prospectdom are just about out for this 26-year-old, and Fagan should now be viewed as AA or AAA corner infielder who can shore up a minor-league squad (although he still needs to move his average up from .219 to do that). Fagan never was able to summon the power to accompany his remarkable plate discipline. Now, with a new supply of first-base prospects charging through the system (from Griffin to Chiaravalotti to Cannon to Metropolous), the end of the organizational line may be in sight.
Kevin Frederick, RHP, 11/04/76
2004 Syracuse
2-1, 1.00, 2 Sv, 12 G, 0 GS, 18 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 2 HR, 19.7% KBF
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 1.27, 1 Sv, 18 G, 0 GS, 21 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 26 K, 1 HR, 30.2% KBF
This is a pretty interesting development. Frederick was a late-round draft pick of the Twins back in 1998, and struggled throughout their system for five years until the Jays acquired him after the 2002 campaign. He pitched quite well for New Haven last season, but got smoked in a brief trial at Syracuse. It was his second unsuccessful run at Triple-A (a 2002 experience in Edmonton was not pleasant either), and although the K rates were very strong, he gave up way too many hits and couldn’t command the strike zone. So what’s happening here? After putting up 20 dominant innings as a Fisher Cat, he’s now strung together 20 dominant innings as a Skychief. Frederick suddenly appears to know where his pitches are going and what they should do. Forty innings aren’t a great barometer of things to come, but these are 40 great innings, unlike anything he’s accomplished in the high minors before. At 27, he’s no longer a true prospect, but keep a close eye on Kevin Frederick.
Gabe Gross, RF, 10/21/79
2004 Syracuse
250 AB, 37 R, 14 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 32 BB, 60 K, 3 SB, 4 CS
Stranded in Syracuse because of an injured elbow that prevents him from playing the outfield (the Jays are evidently rehabbing the injury during the season), Gross has been left to do little but DH and work on his hitting. That task has clearly been going very well. Gross’s average is bumping .300, his on-base percentage is in the three-and-a-quarter neighbourhood, and the power is starting to manifest itself, though gradually. One concern I have is with all those strikeouts with relatively little power to counterbalance them. His BB/K rate, historically 1/1 throughout his career, has been at 1/2 throughout his Triple-A tenure, which is now one full season old. If Gross can eventually jack 20 taters a year and walk 75 times, then the Jays will be more than content with 100+ strikeouts. But he’s hit just 11 homers in his 440 AAA at-bats, and at 24 years old, that’s a yellow flag, unless his injury also robs him of home run pop. Otherwise, though, Gross is showing all the signs of major-league readiness.
Aquilino Lopez, RHP, 07/30/80
2004 Syracuse
0-3, 7.07, 2 Sv, 10 G, 10 GS, 14 IP, 18 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR
Hi, I’m Aquilino Lopez. You may remember me from the 2003 Toronto Blue Jays, where as a Rule 5 pick I saved 14 games, struck out 64 batters in 73 innings, and compiled a personal highlight video of making Nomar Garciaparra look helpless. Now I’m at the back end of the Syracuse bullpen, and based on my current numbers, I’m pretty fortunate to even be there. No, I don’t have the first sweet clue what happened to me, though if you find out, I’d love to know. Thanks for asking!
Simon Pond, 1B/OF, 10/27/76
2004 Syracuse
185 AB, 23 R, .265/.312/.438, 15 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 11 BB, 46 K
It’s been an up-and-down year -- literally – for the big Canadian, and his hitting hasn’t been helped by multiple changes of scenery, both geographic and position-wise. But at the moment, he’s not putting together the kind of offensive numbers that set him apart from other prospects -- particularly since his major-league experience has proven decisively that he is not capable of effectively manning an outfield spot. The worse your glove, the better your bat has to be to get noticed, and Pond needs to rediscover the fiery stick he wielded last season if he wants to claim a spot as backup first baseman in the bigs.
Jorge Sequea, 2B, 10/01/80
2004 Syracuse
178 AB, 24 R, .264/.332/.326, 8 2B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 16 BB, 36 K, 5 SB, 1 CS
After a brutal, injury-plagued start to his season, Sequea is showing signs of life -- his OPS has climbed 55 points in the last month, and he swiped 4 bases without a CS in June. He still has a ways to go to convince the Blue Jays that he can be a useful utility infielder in the majors. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to the AFL this autumn to get some more at-bats and show this organization – or another one – that he’s the next Tomas Perez.
Glenn Williams, 3B, 07/18/77
2004 Syracuse
282 AB, 40 R, .252/.305/.504, 13 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 21 BB, 57 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
I don’t care if he is sporting a .300 on-base percentage, the Aussie deserves at least a mention in this report. His 18 homers lead the entire organization, especially the parent club, and his SLG would be even more impressive if he could make contact more often. But the BB/K rate betrays his difficulties with truly mastering the strike zone, and at this point he looks like an accomplished slugger of correctly predicted minor-league pitchers’ mistakes. That’s not a bad role to play, and Williams has already done more this season than his record till now had indicated. Maybe he’s having his mythical age-27 season in Syracuse and this will never happen again. But if he makes more consistent contact for base hits, the Jays could take a longer look.
AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Josh Banks, RHP, 07/18/82
2004 New Hampshire
0-2, 8.39, 6 G, 6 GS, 24 IP, 28 H, 14 BB, 17 K, 4 HR, 14.7% KBF
2004 Dunedin
7-1, 1.80, 11 G, 11 GS, 60 IP, 49 H, 8 BB, 60 K, 4 HR, 26.1% KBF
As the great Bob Costas would say, “That’s gotta hurt.” But Banks’ numbers, ugly as they may be, need a little context. He was hammered in his first start, not an uncommon occurrence for young players with butterflies; and in his third start, he was pitching in front of 200 family and friends, many of whom were basically behind home plate, staring at him; not a good idea. But he was sensational in a couple of other starts and decent otherwise. Banks is the real deal, and what he might lack right now in composure, he can and will learn; what he has in raw stuff, command and poise, he hasn’t lost. Remember that he was toying with the Florida State League, and he does not need to go down and do that again. His final numbers at New Hampshire will look rocky, but I expect him to settle down and pitch well from this point onwards.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 04/12/79
2004 New Hampshire
3-1, 3.29, 2 SV, 29 G, 0 GS, 38 IP, 39 H, 16 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 20.3% KBF
DeJong is holding his own, striking out a lot of hitters but still giving up more than his share of baserunners. If there was a positive sign in June, he allowed only 15 H in 17 IP, with a 7/14 B/K rate – better than what came before, but still not dominant. DeJong still has some time left to show he’s big-league worthy, but at 25, the counter is almost down to zero.
Anton French, OF, 07/25/75
2004 New Hampshire
81 AB, 19 R, .309/.391/.519, 5 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 11 B, 15 K, 8 SB, 0 CS
At 29, French is a veteran minor-leaguer who spent three seasons in the Independent League, a circuit that will someday form the basis for Ron Shelton’s next baseball movie. Maybe French can write it: originally drafted by the Cardinals in 1993, he’s now wearing his 15th professional uniform, and this is his second trip through the Jays system (Dunedin/Knoxville Alumni ’97). French can fly -- he swiped 40 bases for Pawtucket last year and has stolen 8 in limited action for the Fisher Cats already. He’s off to a hot start with the bat too, but he’s never shown much in the way of plate discipline, and fans shouldn’t expect it to continue. Doubtless he’s a fan and clubhouse favourite, and hopefully he can continue to inject some pizzazz into the New Hampshire lineup. If nothing else, he can serve as an example to…
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 07/10/79
2004 New Hampshire
282 AB, 46 R, .245/.320/.362, 12 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 29 BB, 55 K, 21 SB, 5 CS
Godwin tread water in June, as his rebound from a terrible start slowed considerably while his base-stealing dropped off as well. He turns 25 this month, and despite the relatively late start to his career, the growing reality that his career path may not be taking him much farther along to the major leagues. Dunedin’s outfielders are really hitting their stride, and the Jays are starting to draft more hitters than pitchers for the first time under JP Ricciardi. Outfield is still a fairly shallow position in the Jays system, so Godwin doesn’t appear to be in danger of losing his organizational spot -- assuming he can work his average back to the .290 range, where it really needs to be. But it’s only going to get harder from this point on.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 11/19/79
2004 New Hampshire
237 AB, 35 R, .224/.321/.414, 12 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 34 BB, 72 K
The power is on. The walks are piling up. But John-Ford Griffin can’t seem to buy a base hit. That a guy who hit .450 and posted a 1339 OPS in his final year at Florida State is now batting .224 at Double-A has to be a source of extreme bewilderment to a lot of people, not least Griffin himself. On the bright side, power and patience are the two things that you generally can’t teach a young prospect, and Griffin is unquestionably not a .226 hitter, so he simply has to improve. JP Ricciardi went to a lot of trouble to acquire Griffin, and I’m pretty sure he didn’t think he was getting the next Rob Deer. I still think he can pull out of this dive.
Aaron Hill, SS, 03/21/82
2004 New Hampshire
277 AB, 38 R, .260/.344/.343, 8 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 37 BB, 34 K
Considering the horrendous 1-for30-something slump he endured in June, and the fact he plays in a home ballpark that is openly hostile to hitters (the two are probably not unrelated), Hill handled himself quite well. His walk rate remained remarkably high, and he even managed to crank a few balls out of the park. A full season at Double-A should allow him to hit the ground running at Syracuse next season. The more I see of Hill, the less he reminds me of Russ Adams and the more I think of Ryan Roberts. That’s no less a compliment.
What does the future hold for Hill and the Jays’ infield? We started discussing this with Russ Adams, above. Hill has 16 errors of his own at New Hampshire, and although he’s capable of playing shortstop in the big leagues, there’s reason to question whether it would be his best position. Some people think he’s better suited to third base, others to second. The official Blue Jays line on both Adams and Hill is that they’ll play shortstop until such time as they prove they can’t handle it. But when viewed in the big-league context, something’s gotta give. Orlando Hudson has matured into an offensive contributor and a defensive wizard at second; meanwhile, a finally healthy Eric Hinske leads AL third basemen in fielding percentage and is coming off a .286/.371/.451 June. Both are affordable and are evidently in the Jays’ plans for the next few years. Who plays shortstop? Or do you move a suddenly strong defensive Hinske to first base and put Hill at third? Or do you sign a free-agent corner infielder and deal away one of the youngsters? It’s not easy being a GM.
Brandon League, RHP, 03/16/83
2004 New Hampshire
3-3, 3.24, 25 G, 1 GS, 50 IP, 37 H, 23 BB, 37 K, 2 HR, 19.8% KBF
It’s starting to come together (19 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 14 K in June). Batters simply can’t get around on League’s vicious high-90s sidearm stuff, and his hits allowed are down where they ought to be. League is that rarity, an extreme groundballer whose strikeout rates will probably not be as high as you’d like to see from a genuine prospect. But in order to prove his dominance, he’ll have to keep runners off the bases both ways, by the safety and by the free pass. For League, the key stat categories will be hits and walks, and as the gap between them and his innings pitched grows, the better he’ll be doing. Once again, remember how young he is for this level; this is a special arm.
Todd Ozias, RHP, 08/19/76
2004 New Hampshire
7-3, 3.24, 14 G, 14 GS, 75 IP, 69 H, 20 BB, 58 K, 5 HR, 19.2% KBF
Of all the free-agent pitchers the Jays signed this past off-season to populate their farm system, none has been so impressive as Ozias, who, with apologies to Cam Reimers, has been New Hampshire’s best starter this year. An 8th-round pick by the Giants in 1998, Ozias is now with his sixth organization; he was a dominant closer for the Double-A Altoona Curve last season. Remarkably, he has never been used as a starter before, and his results on the mound thus far this season make you wonder why. Ozias has never been given a chance at Triple-A; depending on how fast the young arms move up the chain behind him, the Jays may want to give Ozias that opportunity as early as this season.
Cam Reimers, RHP, 09/15/78
2004 New Hampshire
7-3, 2.69, 14 G, 14 GS, 87 IP, 81 H, 20 BB, 40 K, 9 HR, 11.2% KBF
A 20/40 BB/K rate in 87 innings is not usually the route to a 2.69 ERA and a position as staff ace, but that’s what Reimers is accomplishing for the fledgling Fisher Cats. While Ozias may have been the better starter, Reimers has contributed 20 more innings and has the defined role as rotation stopper, and you have to give him credit for that. I still don’t think he’d be very effective as Triple-A, let alone the majors, but he’s been a big reason for the success of the Fisher Cats in their first year.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 08/22/79
2004 Hew Hampshire
281 AB, 46 R, .278/.362/.399, 15 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 33 BB, 34 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Remember when the Jays had nobody to play second base? When giving Homer Bush a three-year contract could strike some people as not certifiably insane? Those days are gone: the Jays have a solid 2B in the majors, two potential keystoners close to the bigs in Adams and Hill, and two others lower down in Carlo Cota and Ryan Roberts. Nearly lost in this embarrassment of riches is a single Rich, Dominic, steadily plugging away at New Hampshire and wondering where he fits into the organizational plan. Rich is now posting numbers very similar to what Adams did at Double-A, with less speed and the hint of more power, albeit a couple of years older. The Jays ought to give him some time at Syracuse to see how he handles the pitching there, but it doesn’t seem likely he’s headed for a steady gig in Toronto. If he does well at AAA, he could still be attractive to other teams that aren’t quite so loaded up the middle.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 02/10/82
2004 New Hampshire
1-0, 0.00, 2 Sv, 3 G, 1 GS, 11 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0 HR
2004 Dunedin
5-1, 3.09, 18 G, 6 GS, 55 IP, 54 H, 13 BB, 37 K, 4 HR, 16.4% KBF
That promotion worked out pretty well, don’t you think? Vermilyea’s seven-inning perfect game last week was the closest the Toronto organization has come to a perfecto since Len Barker was carried off the field by his teammates in 1981. Vermilyea started his Double-A tenure by retiring the first 35 (at this writing) batters he faced -- but of course that won’t last, and he wasn’t dominating the FSL before his promotion like he did the NY-Penn League last year, so I expect a hard landing in the next couple of weeks. But that doesn’t make his progress any less inspiring and exciting. Maybe this New Mexico native just doesn’t like the Florida heat, because he’s been shutting down batters everywhere else he’s pitched in his brief pro career. Stay tuned.
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 06/13/81
2004 Dunedin
1-0, 0.77, 13 SV, 35 IP, 29 H, 7 BB, 41 K, 2 HR, 28.5% KBF
Hi, I’m Bubbie Buzachero. You may remember me from my last season and a half, when I ran up a combined line of 70 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 88 K in Auburn and Dunedin. Despite this, I wasn’t promoted to New Hampshire last month when Adam Peterson was promoted to the big leagues and Brian Reed came to Dunedin. No, I don’t know why that is. Thanks for asking!
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 10/26/80
2004 Dunedin
274 AB, 35 R, .281/.379/.464, 24 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 37 BB, 70 K
Vito seems to have settled into a pretty solid production level, and one can assume that the remarkable power he showed off at Auburn last year is simply being dampened by the Florida State League heat or a lingering wrist injury. I’m starting to feel the slightest bit uneasy, though: his BB/K rate of 27/54 in his last 194 AB, when combined with a 50-odd-point drop in his OPS, bugs me a little. In fact, while preparing this entry, it suddenly struck me that Vito’s current stat line seemed awfully familiar. So I checked it out, and I was right: a nearly-identical .279/.361/.461 line is how John-Ford Griffin finished his injury-interrupted 2003 season at New Haven. I hope that’s not foreshadowing.
Carlo Cota, 2B, 09/18/80
2004 Dunedin
273 AB, 54 R, .289/.354/.436, 20 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 28 BB, 61 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
I can’t shake this vague image of Carlo Cota and Vito Chiaravalotti hanging together in a ‘50s Grease-style high school, with Big Vito the heavyweight ringleader and Carlo the smaller but still-tough sidekick. In fact, the numbers indicate that Carlo’s the one gunning for the top dog position -- now he’s barely behind Vito in all the relevant categories. It really only the walks that separate them at this point. Cota has really turned on the power this past month, and he’s shouldering his way into any discussion of top middle-infield prospects for the Blue Jays.
Scott Dragicevich, 3B/1B, 06/28/80
2004 Dunedin
197 AB, 29 R, .249/.352/.360, 13 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 31 BB, 51 K
With the current backlog of left-side-of-the-infielders in Dunedin and the need for more offensive help in New Hampshire (more on that below), there was a suggestion that maybe Dragicevich could be promoted to help out. But a rough June, one that saw his OPS drop about 70 points, pretty much ruled that out. His BB/AB and BB/K rate are still pretty fine, though, so he’s hanging in there and can still contribute.
Justin James, RHP, 09/13/81
2004 Dunedin
0-1, 6.75, 1 G, 1 GS, 4 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K 0 HR
2004 Charleston
5-4, 3.00, 14 G, 14 GS, 78 IP, 67 H, 24 BB, 83 K, 2 HR, 26.0% KBF
James allowed 8 more walks and 5 fewer homers. Those are was pretty much the only things separating the otherwise virtually identical Charleston totals of James and Shaun Marcum, who were justifiably promoted in tandem; James’ control was just that much less precise than Marcum’s, who perhaps suffered for it with more long balls. It’s too early to take anything from the FSL results, but James and Marcum – the 3rd- and 5th-round picks in the 2003 draft – are both looking really good at this point.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 12/14/81
2004 Dunedin
1-0, 4.09, 2 G, 2 GS, 11 IP, 15 H, 0 BB, 12 K, 2 HR
2004 Charleston
7-4, 3.19, 13 G, 13 GS, 79 IP, 64 H, 16 BB, 83 K, 7 HR, 26.0% KBF
On a stellar Charleston pitching staff, Marcum was the brightest star. A step behind Josh Banks and barely a quarter-step ahead of Justin James, Marcum shows a rare combination of command and raw stuff that has to be making the Jays happy. We’ll see what he and James can do in the FSL; I’m betting they won’t have too many problems, and that we’ll soon be talking about “Banks, James and Marcum” as the Next Big Three starting pitchers in the Toronto system.
Rodney Medina, OF, 10/17/81
2004 Dunedin
139 AB, 24 R, .266/.346/.424, 5 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 15 BB, 14 K, 2 SB, 3 CS
He’s getting stronger by the week after his springtime injury, he’s flying well under the radar, and Rodney Medina continues to be one of the best-kept secrets in the Blue Jays organization. The extra-base power, the patience, and the bat control are all positive and are trending upwards -- and he won’t be 23 till October. He doesn’t have Miguel Negron’s upside, and he may simply end up as a solid organizational contributor, but right now Medina is a whole lot of fun to watch.
Miguel Negron, OF, 08/22/82
2004 Dunedin
199 AB, 30 R, .276/.352/.447, 7 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 21 BB, 38 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
And heeeere comes the power -- Negron now has 1 more dinger than Big Vito does, in 75 fewer AB. In fact, Negron is posting a line not substantially different from Vito or Cota, and he’s doing it with far fewer strikeouts than those sluggers. His home run binge in June (6) is somewhat belied by the mere 2 doubles he stroked in that time, but he’s maintaining a decent batting eye while adding power, and that’s not easy . He’s a full year younger than Medina and two years Vito’s junior. Something really good is happening here.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 09/27/81
2004 Dunedin
1-3, 3.90, 8 G, 4 GS, 30 IP, 35 H, 15 BB, 29 K, 0 HR, 21.2% KBF
The numbers don’t tell the better part of the story, which is that Perkins’ last start in June, his second since coming off the DL, was very strong. That may be a blip, or it may be a sign that the time off due to injury and the rehab may have helped him conquer some of his mechanical and command issues. We need to see him post equally solid results for the balance of the season, but Perkins is a guy the Jays would love to see pull it together -- in the whole organization, perhaps only Dustin McGowan and Brandon League have better raw stuff. If he harnesses that stuff, watch out.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 03/03/81
2004 Dunedin
6-5, 3.71, 16 G, 15 GS, 89 IP, 94 H, 18 BB, 58 K, 2 HR, 15.6% KBF
If the FSL ever wants to make its All-Star Game Home Run Derby more challenging, all it needs to do is have Ramirez pitch to all the batters. Two home runs allowed in 90 innings is impressive enough, but considering how much Ramirez hangs around the strike zone, it’s even more amazing. The lack of a good K record makes me think his upside is Triple-A at best, but there’s a potential big-league long-reliever lurking here.
Brian Reed, RHP, 03/06/81
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 4.91, 1 Sv, 4 G, 0 GS, 3 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 HR
2004 Charleston
1-0, 0.35, 10 Sv, 26 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 28 K, 28.0% KBF
Not bad for a 27th-round draft pick, huh? Reed lasted that long in the 2003 draft because he doesn’t throw all that hard -- all he does is throw strikes, change speeds and keep the ball down. Accordingly, he’ll go as far as his command and movement can take him -- I don’t think that’ll be all the way to the majors, but it sure will be higher than Dunedin by the time it’s all over.
Ryan Roberts, 2B, 09/19/80
2004 Dunedin
32 AB, 5 R, .250/.342/.344, 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K, 0 SB, 2 CS
2004 Charleston
226 AB, 38 R, .283/.440/.496, 9 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 55 BB, 50 K. 0 SB, 0 CS
No one deserved his promotion from Charleston more than Roberts, who at times appeared to be toying with the opposing pitchers. In retrospect, he probably could’ve started 2004 in Dunedin along with former Auburn mates Vito and Carlo. Of course, in retrospect, I should’ve held on to Jose Lima in the Batter’s Box Fantasy League. Roberts is off to a decent start at Dunedin, holding his own with 6 walks already, but don’t expect to see much power from him in the FSL, and indeed, he’s not a slugger so much as he is a solid extra-base hitter. With Roberts, Cota and Raul Tablado, the D-Jays have three guys fighting for two positions, a conundrum they’re evidently trying to solve by putting Cota at third, Tablado at short and Roberts at second most nights. That’s not working out terribly well for Tablado so far (see below), and Cota seems better suited for the keystone position himself. Anyway, nice problem to have, and all three of these guys will have plenty of time to play Musical Bases at New Hampshire next season.
Raul Tablado, 3B, 03/03/82
2004 Dunedin
132 AB, 27 R, .341/.400/.659, 13 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 11 BB, 34 K
Don’t touch Raul Tablado, or you might end up with second-degree burns. He’s passed the Magical Arbitrary 100-At-Bat Threshold and is still ripping the cover off the ball. You know how hard it is to crank out 22 extra-base hits in 132 AB in the Florida State League? Hard. They appear to be trying him out at shortstop, in an effort to get him, Roberts and Cota in the lineup at the same time. Judging from his error-filled, 0-for-4 nights there, I’m not sure it’s working out so well. If I ran the zoo, my solution would be a one-way ticket to Manchester for Carlo Cota, but luckily for Jays’ fans everywhere, I don’t. Nonetheless, Tablado remains really interesting.
Tracy Thorpe, RHP, 12/15/80
Dunedin 2004
2-2, 3.38, 21 G, 0 GS, 34 IP, 20 H, 17 BB, 32 K, 1 HR
Speaking of flying under the radar … Thorpe threw in the mid-90s and was developing a nice curveball in June 2002 when he tore his labrum in 2 places. After a lengthy and difficult rehab, Thorpe is finally back on the mound, and though I haven’t seen any fresh scouting reports, the numbers indicate that opposing batters aren’t touching his stuff. His command is off, something perhaps to be expected from a recovering pitcher, and it wasn’t really that hot to begin with. Thorpe is a work in progress, but the big man (6’4”, 250 lbs) is getting closer all the time.
Jayce Tingler, OF, 10/28/80
Dunedin 2004
272 AB, 45 R, .250/.373/.298, 13 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 43 BB, 17 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
He looks to be banging his head on a glass ceiling, and that has to start hurting eventually. Everyone knows Tingler will never hit for hardly any power, but still, one lone double in the entire month of June is not good. He’s maintaining his utterly unreal BB/K and BB/AB rates, but the fact is that it’s hard to get out of any league with a sub-.300 slugging percentage. This may take a little while yet.
Low-A Charleston Alley-Cats
Danny Core, RHP, 07/17/81
2004 Charleston
5-5, 3.72, 15 G, 15 GS, 82 IP, 72 H, 25 BB, 65 K, 7 HR, 9 HB, 19.6% KBF
Core’s numbers stayed very consistent from May through June, which probably wasn’t what he was hoping for. As Gerry has pointed out elsewhere, Core has had a number of really good starts and a few really terrible ones, which has left his season totals pretty average for the South Atlantic League. I don’t know if that’s because the better offences light him up, or he’s having some problems focusing on every start, or if it’s something else. The K numbers are not where they need to be to indicate dominance, so he’ll have to keep at it.
Robinzon Diaz, C, 09/13/83
2004 Charleston
246 AB, 31 R, .252/.298/.317, 8 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 14 BB, 16 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
You know what, ignore everything else in this batting line and look just at the strikeouts. He has only 16 Ks in 246 at-bats. Diaz, who won’t turn 21 till September, is only striking out once every 15 at-bats in the most strikeout-prone circuit in the entire minor leagues. That, folks, is awesome bat control, and it’s got to mean something. The walks, the power, even the average are still works in progress. But this young man knows what to do with a bat in his hands.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 01/15/82
2004 Dunedin
2-5, 5.61, 14 G, 14 GS, 61 IP, 73 H, 20 BB, 40 K, 6 HR, 14.3% KBF
2004 Charleston
0-1, 13.50, 1 G, 1 GS, 4 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR
Wow, what happened here? After a stellar debut at Auburn last year and a decent start at Dunedin, Isenberg just imploded in May and June, and is now struggling at Charleston. Everything’s wrong -- too many hits, too many walks, too many homers. It seems in hindsight that Isenberg was over-promoted to the FSL and should’ve started in the Sally -- but his Auburn numbers were hardly any different from Josh Banks’, and there was absolutely no indication that this kind of meltdown was coming. I’ve heard no indication of injury problems, so hopefully his stint at Charleston will help settle Isenberg down and get him back in a groove.
Clint Johnston, 1B, 07/22/77
2004 Charleston
271 AB, 51 R, .273/.375/.465, 24 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 45 BB, 73 K
Eventually, the Jays will have to decide what to do with Johnston, a six-year free-agent signed in the off-season and converted from the mound far too late for him to have a major-league career. Yeah, that’s a lot of K’s, and he’ll turn 27 this month, but I have little doubt he could contribute to a team as high as Double-A right now (and the Fisher Cats could use the help). Toronto may, however, quite reasonably want to keep him in the Sally in a mentoring role to the peach-fuzzed youngsters who pass through that clubhouse, and that would be just fine. Still, those stats make you pause and think about what might have been….
Tom Mastny, RHP, 02/04/81
2004 Charleston
5-2, 1.94, 15 G, 15 GS, 83 IP, 69 H, 26 BB, 71 K, 2 HR, 21.1% KBF
Ever see a movie called Left Behind, a Christian-themed movie about the end of the world, starring Kirk Cameron? It was about The Rapture, and how numerous people found themselves unexpectedly left behind when the Chosen were called up to heaven. I’ll bet Tom Mastny could empathize. In fairness, Charleston needed to keep at least one of its great starters in order to stay competitive, and Mastny’s strikeout numbers are not as overpowering as those of Marcum and James. In fact, a combination of low H/IP and ordinary K/IP rates looks worrisomely like what Chad Pleiness did last year. Mastny should do better than that, but he’s going to be under some scrutiny till he gets those strikeouts back up.
Joey Reiman, C, 12/20/80
2004 Charleston
190 AB, 27 R, .268/.368/.347, 12 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 22 BB, 38 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
Don’t forget about this guy. Reiman was a player the Jays’ front office was glad to have snagged in the later rounds of the 2003 draft, and he’s making slow but steady progress. He has an excellent batting eye and some nascent power; it’s been mostly doubles so far, but the big-fly pop could arrive eventually. Keep him on long-range sensors and see how he does when he hits Dunedin.
Davis Romero, LHP, 03/30/83
2004 Charleston
1-2, 2.38, 1 SV, 23 G, 5 GS, 53 IP, 33 H, 12 BB, 55 K, 2 HR, 26.2% KBF
He didn’t get called up to Dunedin, but Romero got the next best thing: a trip to the starting rotation, where he’s off to a fine start in limited action. We must remember three important things about Davis Romero: (1) he’s small (5’10”, 140 lbs), (2) he’s never thrown more than 51 innings in a season, and (3) no really, he’s small. This is not an arm or a frame that is ready to take much wear and tear, and at 21, Romero has a lot of time to build up strength over the next season or two. I’d like to see him start 2005 in Dunedin, but for now, the Charleston rotation looks real good on him. The Jays may have themselves something special here.
Felix Romero, RHP, 06/18/80
2004 Charleston
6-3, 3.20, 3 SV, 29 G, 0 GS, 50 IP, 44 H, 16 BB, 69 K, 3 HR, 32.7% KBF
Hi, I’m Felix Romero. You may remember me from my last season and a half, when I ran up a combined line of 119 IP, 107 H, 41 BB and 146 K. Yet I wasn’t promoted last month and have spent the last 2 ½ seasons here in Charleston. Why, yes, I am 24 years old and still pitching in the South Atlantic League. No, that KBF number is not a misprint. Thanks for asking!
David Smith, OF, 01/12/81
2004 Charleston
238 AB, 42 R, .273/.375/.420, 9 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 33 BB, 66 K, 4 SB, 0 CS
The only thing here I don’t much like is the strikeouts (22 in his last 78 AB), which are barely acceptable with a .420 slugging percentage and which make me worry about how well Smith will do against more advanced pitching than is found in the Sally. Plus, he’s halfway to 24, and that’s not a good age to find oneself in Low-A Ball. Realistically, though, there are a lot of talented outfielders ahead of him who are posting more than respectable numbers at higher levels. Smith’s not doing anything wrong, and he can still contribute to the Blue Jays’ organization for several ears to come. Not everyone in the minors will make it to the majors; not everyone is supposed to. It doesn’t mean they’re any less valuable.
Christian Snavely, OF, 05/07/82
2004 Charleston
164 AB, 25 R, .244/.369/.409, 12 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 32 BB, 61 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
The OPS has risen by about 60 points, which is of course quite good, though his earlier sample size wasn’t huge. Plus, his BB/K gap almost doubled in the last month, and he’s sitting on a whole lot of strikeouts at the moment. But we’re splitting hairs; this is the first real sign of progress from Snavely since he turned pro, and the tools at his disposal offer encouragement that he can still make a splash. Watch the power column over the next few months.
I should note at the outset that neither Auburn nor Pulaski players will be reviewed in this report; their seasons are just beginning and the sample sizes they've produced are too small to conclude anything beyond "X is off to a great start" or "Y has begun the season slowly." We'll have a complete look at all 6 levels of the system this time next month.
AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
Russ Adams, SS, Born August 30, 1980
2004 Syracuse
278 AB, 30 R, .270/.351/.388, 26 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 33 BB, 33 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
A red-hot May gave way to a fine June in which Adams maintained his solid walk rate, added a few more doubles to the cause, and generally held steady, though he was in something of a slump as July approached. After some steadier play at shortstop the previous month, the throwing yips caught up to him again and his errors totals increased (he’s now at 20 halfway through the season). The question now, though, isn’t if but when Adams will be playing in the Skydome infield.
Chris Woodward has pretty much established himself to be a solid but injury-prone backup, not someone you can ask to start 145 games a year. The Jays likely don’t want another stopgap year from Chris Gomez and his ilk, and even if Aaron Hill is destined for shortstop, it won’t be in 2005. Free-agent shortstops will probably be in short supply this winter, and in any event the Jays will be shopping primarily for pitching and first base help. The remaining possibility is that Orlando Hudson could move to short and Adams would take over at second base, but the team may be reluctant to move a Gold Glove second baseman in the making. The likeliest outcome is that Russ Adams will be playing shortstop in Toronto no later than next April. If so, he’ll hit .270, walk a lot, steal a few bases and adjust as best he can to major-league artificial-turf grounders. More on the future Toronto infield in the Aaron Hill section, below.
David Bush, RHP, 11/09/79
2004 Syracuse
6-6, 4.06, 16 G, 16 GS, 99 IP, 108 H, 20 BB, 88 K, 7 HR, 20.6% KBF
There’s probably no point in mentioning him here, because Bush has been called up the majors and will, barring a Mike Smith-like meltdown, probably not be back down to the minors. So let’s take a brief look at his key minor-league pitching numbers: 292 IP, 268 H, 57 BB, 284 K. His hits allowed and ERA at Syracuse weren’t deeply reassuring, and Bush should come with the caveat that between now and the end of the season, he’s going to get bombed back to the Stone Age at least once. Try not to be discouraged if he does: hardly any pitcher adjusts seamlessly to the majors, and Bush is around the plate so much that he’s going to get rocked when he misses. But his pitches have power and movement; his command is extraordinary; he’s smart and durable; and he knows what he’s doing out there. He’ll be 25 in November, and he’s as ready as he’s going to be.
Shawn Fagan, 1B, 02/03/78
2004 Syracuse
244 AB, 33 R, .225/.338/.324, 9 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 39 BB, 60 K
The embers of prospectdom are just about out for this 26-year-old, and Fagan should now be viewed as AA or AAA corner infielder who can shore up a minor-league squad (although he still needs to move his average up from .219 to do that). Fagan never was able to summon the power to accompany his remarkable plate discipline. Now, with a new supply of first-base prospects charging through the system (from Griffin to Chiaravalotti to Cannon to Metropolous), the end of the organizational line may be in sight.
Kevin Frederick, RHP, 11/04/76
2004 Syracuse
2-1, 1.00, 2 Sv, 12 G, 0 GS, 18 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 2 HR, 19.7% KBF
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 1.27, 1 Sv, 18 G, 0 GS, 21 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 26 K, 1 HR, 30.2% KBF
This is a pretty interesting development. Frederick was a late-round draft pick of the Twins back in 1998, and struggled throughout their system for five years until the Jays acquired him after the 2002 campaign. He pitched quite well for New Haven last season, but got smoked in a brief trial at Syracuse. It was his second unsuccessful run at Triple-A (a 2002 experience in Edmonton was not pleasant either), and although the K rates were very strong, he gave up way too many hits and couldn’t command the strike zone. So what’s happening here? After putting up 20 dominant innings as a Fisher Cat, he’s now strung together 20 dominant innings as a Skychief. Frederick suddenly appears to know where his pitches are going and what they should do. Forty innings aren’t a great barometer of things to come, but these are 40 great innings, unlike anything he’s accomplished in the high minors before. At 27, he’s no longer a true prospect, but keep a close eye on Kevin Frederick.
Gabe Gross, RF, 10/21/79
2004 Syracuse
250 AB, 37 R, 14 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 32 BB, 60 K, 3 SB, 4 CS
Stranded in Syracuse because of an injured elbow that prevents him from playing the outfield (the Jays are evidently rehabbing the injury during the season), Gross has been left to do little but DH and work on his hitting. That task has clearly been going very well. Gross’s average is bumping .300, his on-base percentage is in the three-and-a-quarter neighbourhood, and the power is starting to manifest itself, though gradually. One concern I have is with all those strikeouts with relatively little power to counterbalance them. His BB/K rate, historically 1/1 throughout his career, has been at 1/2 throughout his Triple-A tenure, which is now one full season old. If Gross can eventually jack 20 taters a year and walk 75 times, then the Jays will be more than content with 100+ strikeouts. But he’s hit just 11 homers in his 440 AAA at-bats, and at 24 years old, that’s a yellow flag, unless his injury also robs him of home run pop. Otherwise, though, Gross is showing all the signs of major-league readiness.
Aquilino Lopez, RHP, 07/30/80
2004 Syracuse
0-3, 7.07, 2 Sv, 10 G, 10 GS, 14 IP, 18 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR
Hi, I’m Aquilino Lopez. You may remember me from the 2003 Toronto Blue Jays, where as a Rule 5 pick I saved 14 games, struck out 64 batters in 73 innings, and compiled a personal highlight video of making Nomar Garciaparra look helpless. Now I’m at the back end of the Syracuse bullpen, and based on my current numbers, I’m pretty fortunate to even be there. No, I don’t have the first sweet clue what happened to me, though if you find out, I’d love to know. Thanks for asking!
Simon Pond, 1B/OF, 10/27/76
2004 Syracuse
185 AB, 23 R, .265/.312/.438, 15 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 11 BB, 46 K
It’s been an up-and-down year -- literally – for the big Canadian, and his hitting hasn’t been helped by multiple changes of scenery, both geographic and position-wise. But at the moment, he’s not putting together the kind of offensive numbers that set him apart from other prospects -- particularly since his major-league experience has proven decisively that he is not capable of effectively manning an outfield spot. The worse your glove, the better your bat has to be to get noticed, and Pond needs to rediscover the fiery stick he wielded last season if he wants to claim a spot as backup first baseman in the bigs.
Jorge Sequea, 2B, 10/01/80
2004 Syracuse
178 AB, 24 R, .264/.332/.326, 8 2B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 16 BB, 36 K, 5 SB, 1 CS
After a brutal, injury-plagued start to his season, Sequea is showing signs of life -- his OPS has climbed 55 points in the last month, and he swiped 4 bases without a CS in June. He still has a ways to go to convince the Blue Jays that he can be a useful utility infielder in the majors. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to the AFL this autumn to get some more at-bats and show this organization – or another one – that he’s the next Tomas Perez.
Glenn Williams, 3B, 07/18/77
2004 Syracuse
282 AB, 40 R, .252/.305/.504, 13 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 21 BB, 57 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
I don’t care if he is sporting a .300 on-base percentage, the Aussie deserves at least a mention in this report. His 18 homers lead the entire organization, especially the parent club, and his SLG would be even more impressive if he could make contact more often. But the BB/K rate betrays his difficulties with truly mastering the strike zone, and at this point he looks like an accomplished slugger of correctly predicted minor-league pitchers’ mistakes. That’s not a bad role to play, and Williams has already done more this season than his record till now had indicated. Maybe he’s having his mythical age-27 season in Syracuse and this will never happen again. But if he makes more consistent contact for base hits, the Jays could take a longer look.
AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Josh Banks, RHP, 07/18/82
2004 New Hampshire
0-2, 8.39, 6 G, 6 GS, 24 IP, 28 H, 14 BB, 17 K, 4 HR, 14.7% KBF
2004 Dunedin
7-1, 1.80, 11 G, 11 GS, 60 IP, 49 H, 8 BB, 60 K, 4 HR, 26.1% KBF
As the great Bob Costas would say, “That’s gotta hurt.” But Banks’ numbers, ugly as they may be, need a little context. He was hammered in his first start, not an uncommon occurrence for young players with butterflies; and in his third start, he was pitching in front of 200 family and friends, many of whom were basically behind home plate, staring at him; not a good idea. But he was sensational in a couple of other starts and decent otherwise. Banks is the real deal, and what he might lack right now in composure, he can and will learn; what he has in raw stuff, command and poise, he hasn’t lost. Remember that he was toying with the Florida State League, and he does not need to go down and do that again. His final numbers at New Hampshire will look rocky, but I expect him to settle down and pitch well from this point onwards.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 04/12/79
2004 New Hampshire
3-1, 3.29, 2 SV, 29 G, 0 GS, 38 IP, 39 H, 16 BB, 36 K, 2 HR, 20.3% KBF
DeJong is holding his own, striking out a lot of hitters but still giving up more than his share of baserunners. If there was a positive sign in June, he allowed only 15 H in 17 IP, with a 7/14 B/K rate – better than what came before, but still not dominant. DeJong still has some time left to show he’s big-league worthy, but at 25, the counter is almost down to zero.
Anton French, OF, 07/25/75
2004 New Hampshire
81 AB, 19 R, .309/.391/.519, 5 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 11 B, 15 K, 8 SB, 0 CS
At 29, French is a veteran minor-leaguer who spent three seasons in the Independent League, a circuit that will someday form the basis for Ron Shelton’s next baseball movie. Maybe French can write it: originally drafted by the Cardinals in 1993, he’s now wearing his 15th professional uniform, and this is his second trip through the Jays system (Dunedin/Knoxville Alumni ’97). French can fly -- he swiped 40 bases for Pawtucket last year and has stolen 8 in limited action for the Fisher Cats already. He’s off to a hot start with the bat too, but he’s never shown much in the way of plate discipline, and fans shouldn’t expect it to continue. Doubtless he’s a fan and clubhouse favourite, and hopefully he can continue to inject some pizzazz into the New Hampshire lineup. If nothing else, he can serve as an example to…
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 07/10/79
2004 New Hampshire
282 AB, 46 R, .245/.320/.362, 12 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 29 BB, 55 K, 21 SB, 5 CS
Godwin tread water in June, as his rebound from a terrible start slowed considerably while his base-stealing dropped off as well. He turns 25 this month, and despite the relatively late start to his career, the growing reality that his career path may not be taking him much farther along to the major leagues. Dunedin’s outfielders are really hitting their stride, and the Jays are starting to draft more hitters than pitchers for the first time under JP Ricciardi. Outfield is still a fairly shallow position in the Jays system, so Godwin doesn’t appear to be in danger of losing his organizational spot -- assuming he can work his average back to the .290 range, where it really needs to be. But it’s only going to get harder from this point on.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 11/19/79
2004 New Hampshire
237 AB, 35 R, .224/.321/.414, 12 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 34 BB, 72 K
The power is on. The walks are piling up. But John-Ford Griffin can’t seem to buy a base hit. That a guy who hit .450 and posted a 1339 OPS in his final year at Florida State is now batting .224 at Double-A has to be a source of extreme bewilderment to a lot of people, not least Griffin himself. On the bright side, power and patience are the two things that you generally can’t teach a young prospect, and Griffin is unquestionably not a .226 hitter, so he simply has to improve. JP Ricciardi went to a lot of trouble to acquire Griffin, and I’m pretty sure he didn’t think he was getting the next Rob Deer. I still think he can pull out of this dive.
Aaron Hill, SS, 03/21/82
2004 New Hampshire
277 AB, 38 R, .260/.344/.343, 8 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 37 BB, 34 K
Considering the horrendous 1-for30-something slump he endured in June, and the fact he plays in a home ballpark that is openly hostile to hitters (the two are probably not unrelated), Hill handled himself quite well. His walk rate remained remarkably high, and he even managed to crank a few balls out of the park. A full season at Double-A should allow him to hit the ground running at Syracuse next season. The more I see of Hill, the less he reminds me of Russ Adams and the more I think of Ryan Roberts. That’s no less a compliment.
What does the future hold for Hill and the Jays’ infield? We started discussing this with Russ Adams, above. Hill has 16 errors of his own at New Hampshire, and although he’s capable of playing shortstop in the big leagues, there’s reason to question whether it would be his best position. Some people think he’s better suited to third base, others to second. The official Blue Jays line on both Adams and Hill is that they’ll play shortstop until such time as they prove they can’t handle it. But when viewed in the big-league context, something’s gotta give. Orlando Hudson has matured into an offensive contributor and a defensive wizard at second; meanwhile, a finally healthy Eric Hinske leads AL third basemen in fielding percentage and is coming off a .286/.371/.451 June. Both are affordable and are evidently in the Jays’ plans for the next few years. Who plays shortstop? Or do you move a suddenly strong defensive Hinske to first base and put Hill at third? Or do you sign a free-agent corner infielder and deal away one of the youngsters? It’s not easy being a GM.
Brandon League, RHP, 03/16/83
2004 New Hampshire
3-3, 3.24, 25 G, 1 GS, 50 IP, 37 H, 23 BB, 37 K, 2 HR, 19.8% KBF
It’s starting to come together (19 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 14 K in June). Batters simply can’t get around on League’s vicious high-90s sidearm stuff, and his hits allowed are down where they ought to be. League is that rarity, an extreme groundballer whose strikeout rates will probably not be as high as you’d like to see from a genuine prospect. But in order to prove his dominance, he’ll have to keep runners off the bases both ways, by the safety and by the free pass. For League, the key stat categories will be hits and walks, and as the gap between them and his innings pitched grows, the better he’ll be doing. Once again, remember how young he is for this level; this is a special arm.
Todd Ozias, RHP, 08/19/76
2004 New Hampshire
7-3, 3.24, 14 G, 14 GS, 75 IP, 69 H, 20 BB, 58 K, 5 HR, 19.2% KBF
Of all the free-agent pitchers the Jays signed this past off-season to populate their farm system, none has been so impressive as Ozias, who, with apologies to Cam Reimers, has been New Hampshire’s best starter this year. An 8th-round pick by the Giants in 1998, Ozias is now with his sixth organization; he was a dominant closer for the Double-A Altoona Curve last season. Remarkably, he has never been used as a starter before, and his results on the mound thus far this season make you wonder why. Ozias has never been given a chance at Triple-A; depending on how fast the young arms move up the chain behind him, the Jays may want to give Ozias that opportunity as early as this season.
Cam Reimers, RHP, 09/15/78
2004 New Hampshire
7-3, 2.69, 14 G, 14 GS, 87 IP, 81 H, 20 BB, 40 K, 9 HR, 11.2% KBF
A 20/40 BB/K rate in 87 innings is not usually the route to a 2.69 ERA and a position as staff ace, but that’s what Reimers is accomplishing for the fledgling Fisher Cats. While Ozias may have been the better starter, Reimers has contributed 20 more innings and has the defined role as rotation stopper, and you have to give him credit for that. I still don’t think he’d be very effective as Triple-A, let alone the majors, but he’s been a big reason for the success of the Fisher Cats in their first year.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 08/22/79
2004 Hew Hampshire
281 AB, 46 R, .278/.362/.399, 15 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 33 BB, 34 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Remember when the Jays had nobody to play second base? When giving Homer Bush a three-year contract could strike some people as not certifiably insane? Those days are gone: the Jays have a solid 2B in the majors, two potential keystoners close to the bigs in Adams and Hill, and two others lower down in Carlo Cota and Ryan Roberts. Nearly lost in this embarrassment of riches is a single Rich, Dominic, steadily plugging away at New Hampshire and wondering where he fits into the organizational plan. Rich is now posting numbers very similar to what Adams did at Double-A, with less speed and the hint of more power, albeit a couple of years older. The Jays ought to give him some time at Syracuse to see how he handles the pitching there, but it doesn’t seem likely he’s headed for a steady gig in Toronto. If he does well at AAA, he could still be attractive to other teams that aren’t quite so loaded up the middle.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 02/10/82
2004 New Hampshire
1-0, 0.00, 2 Sv, 3 G, 1 GS, 11 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0 HR
2004 Dunedin
5-1, 3.09, 18 G, 6 GS, 55 IP, 54 H, 13 BB, 37 K, 4 HR, 16.4% KBF
That promotion worked out pretty well, don’t you think? Vermilyea’s seven-inning perfect game last week was the closest the Toronto organization has come to a perfecto since Len Barker was carried off the field by his teammates in 1981. Vermilyea started his Double-A tenure by retiring the first 35 (at this writing) batters he faced -- but of course that won’t last, and he wasn’t dominating the FSL before his promotion like he did the NY-Penn League last year, so I expect a hard landing in the next couple of weeks. But that doesn’t make his progress any less inspiring and exciting. Maybe this New Mexico native just doesn’t like the Florida heat, because he’s been shutting down batters everywhere else he’s pitched in his brief pro career. Stay tuned.
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 06/13/81
2004 Dunedin
1-0, 0.77, 13 SV, 35 IP, 29 H, 7 BB, 41 K, 2 HR, 28.5% KBF
Hi, I’m Bubbie Buzachero. You may remember me from my last season and a half, when I ran up a combined line of 70 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 88 K in Auburn and Dunedin. Despite this, I wasn’t promoted to New Hampshire last month when Adam Peterson was promoted to the big leagues and Brian Reed came to Dunedin. No, I don’t know why that is. Thanks for asking!
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 10/26/80
2004 Dunedin
274 AB, 35 R, .281/.379/.464, 24 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 37 BB, 70 K
Vito seems to have settled into a pretty solid production level, and one can assume that the remarkable power he showed off at Auburn last year is simply being dampened by the Florida State League heat or a lingering wrist injury. I’m starting to feel the slightest bit uneasy, though: his BB/K rate of 27/54 in his last 194 AB, when combined with a 50-odd-point drop in his OPS, bugs me a little. In fact, while preparing this entry, it suddenly struck me that Vito’s current stat line seemed awfully familiar. So I checked it out, and I was right: a nearly-identical .279/.361/.461 line is how John-Ford Griffin finished his injury-interrupted 2003 season at New Haven. I hope that’s not foreshadowing.
Carlo Cota, 2B, 09/18/80
2004 Dunedin
273 AB, 54 R, .289/.354/.436, 20 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 28 BB, 61 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
I can’t shake this vague image of Carlo Cota and Vito Chiaravalotti hanging together in a ‘50s Grease-style high school, with Big Vito the heavyweight ringleader and Carlo the smaller but still-tough sidekick. In fact, the numbers indicate that Carlo’s the one gunning for the top dog position -- now he’s barely behind Vito in all the relevant categories. It really only the walks that separate them at this point. Cota has really turned on the power this past month, and he’s shouldering his way into any discussion of top middle-infield prospects for the Blue Jays.
Scott Dragicevich, 3B/1B, 06/28/80
2004 Dunedin
197 AB, 29 R, .249/.352/.360, 13 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 31 BB, 51 K
With the current backlog of left-side-of-the-infielders in Dunedin and the need for more offensive help in New Hampshire (more on that below), there was a suggestion that maybe Dragicevich could be promoted to help out. But a rough June, one that saw his OPS drop about 70 points, pretty much ruled that out. His BB/AB and BB/K rate are still pretty fine, though, so he’s hanging in there and can still contribute.
Justin James, RHP, 09/13/81
2004 Dunedin
0-1, 6.75, 1 G, 1 GS, 4 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K 0 HR
2004 Charleston
5-4, 3.00, 14 G, 14 GS, 78 IP, 67 H, 24 BB, 83 K, 2 HR, 26.0% KBF
James allowed 8 more walks and 5 fewer homers. Those are was pretty much the only things separating the otherwise virtually identical Charleston totals of James and Shaun Marcum, who were justifiably promoted in tandem; James’ control was just that much less precise than Marcum’s, who perhaps suffered for it with more long balls. It’s too early to take anything from the FSL results, but James and Marcum – the 3rd- and 5th-round picks in the 2003 draft – are both looking really good at this point.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 12/14/81
2004 Dunedin
1-0, 4.09, 2 G, 2 GS, 11 IP, 15 H, 0 BB, 12 K, 2 HR
2004 Charleston
7-4, 3.19, 13 G, 13 GS, 79 IP, 64 H, 16 BB, 83 K, 7 HR, 26.0% KBF
On a stellar Charleston pitching staff, Marcum was the brightest star. A step behind Josh Banks and barely a quarter-step ahead of Justin James, Marcum shows a rare combination of command and raw stuff that has to be making the Jays happy. We’ll see what he and James can do in the FSL; I’m betting they won’t have too many problems, and that we’ll soon be talking about “Banks, James and Marcum” as the Next Big Three starting pitchers in the Toronto system.
Rodney Medina, OF, 10/17/81
2004 Dunedin
139 AB, 24 R, .266/.346/.424, 5 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 15 BB, 14 K, 2 SB, 3 CS
He’s getting stronger by the week after his springtime injury, he’s flying well under the radar, and Rodney Medina continues to be one of the best-kept secrets in the Blue Jays organization. The extra-base power, the patience, and the bat control are all positive and are trending upwards -- and he won’t be 23 till October. He doesn’t have Miguel Negron’s upside, and he may simply end up as a solid organizational contributor, but right now Medina is a whole lot of fun to watch.
Miguel Negron, OF, 08/22/82
2004 Dunedin
199 AB, 30 R, .276/.352/.447, 7 2B, 0 3B, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 21 BB, 38 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
And heeeere comes the power -- Negron now has 1 more dinger than Big Vito does, in 75 fewer AB. In fact, Negron is posting a line not substantially different from Vito or Cota, and he’s doing it with far fewer strikeouts than those sluggers. His home run binge in June (6) is somewhat belied by the mere 2 doubles he stroked in that time, but he’s maintaining a decent batting eye while adding power, and that’s not easy . He’s a full year younger than Medina and two years Vito’s junior. Something really good is happening here.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 09/27/81
2004 Dunedin
1-3, 3.90, 8 G, 4 GS, 30 IP, 35 H, 15 BB, 29 K, 0 HR, 21.2% KBF
The numbers don’t tell the better part of the story, which is that Perkins’ last start in June, his second since coming off the DL, was very strong. That may be a blip, or it may be a sign that the time off due to injury and the rehab may have helped him conquer some of his mechanical and command issues. We need to see him post equally solid results for the balance of the season, but Perkins is a guy the Jays would love to see pull it together -- in the whole organization, perhaps only Dustin McGowan and Brandon League have better raw stuff. If he harnesses that stuff, watch out.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 03/03/81
2004 Dunedin
6-5, 3.71, 16 G, 15 GS, 89 IP, 94 H, 18 BB, 58 K, 2 HR, 15.6% KBF
If the FSL ever wants to make its All-Star Game Home Run Derby more challenging, all it needs to do is have Ramirez pitch to all the batters. Two home runs allowed in 90 innings is impressive enough, but considering how much Ramirez hangs around the strike zone, it’s even more amazing. The lack of a good K record makes me think his upside is Triple-A at best, but there’s a potential big-league long-reliever lurking here.
Brian Reed, RHP, 03/06/81
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 4.91, 1 Sv, 4 G, 0 GS, 3 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 HR
2004 Charleston
1-0, 0.35, 10 Sv, 26 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 28 K, 28.0% KBF
Not bad for a 27th-round draft pick, huh? Reed lasted that long in the 2003 draft because he doesn’t throw all that hard -- all he does is throw strikes, change speeds and keep the ball down. Accordingly, he’ll go as far as his command and movement can take him -- I don’t think that’ll be all the way to the majors, but it sure will be higher than Dunedin by the time it’s all over.
Ryan Roberts, 2B, 09/19/80
2004 Dunedin
32 AB, 5 R, .250/.342/.344, 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K, 0 SB, 2 CS
2004 Charleston
226 AB, 38 R, .283/.440/.496, 9 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 55 BB, 50 K. 0 SB, 0 CS
No one deserved his promotion from Charleston more than Roberts, who at times appeared to be toying with the opposing pitchers. In retrospect, he probably could’ve started 2004 in Dunedin along with former Auburn mates Vito and Carlo. Of course, in retrospect, I should’ve held on to Jose Lima in the Batter’s Box Fantasy League. Roberts is off to a decent start at Dunedin, holding his own with 6 walks already, but don’t expect to see much power from him in the FSL, and indeed, he’s not a slugger so much as he is a solid extra-base hitter. With Roberts, Cota and Raul Tablado, the D-Jays have three guys fighting for two positions, a conundrum they’re evidently trying to solve by putting Cota at third, Tablado at short and Roberts at second most nights. That’s not working out terribly well for Tablado so far (see below), and Cota seems better suited for the keystone position himself. Anyway, nice problem to have, and all three of these guys will have plenty of time to play Musical Bases at New Hampshire next season.
Raul Tablado, 3B, 03/03/82
2004 Dunedin
132 AB, 27 R, .341/.400/.659, 13 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 11 BB, 34 K
Don’t touch Raul Tablado, or you might end up with second-degree burns. He’s passed the Magical Arbitrary 100-At-Bat Threshold and is still ripping the cover off the ball. You know how hard it is to crank out 22 extra-base hits in 132 AB in the Florida State League? Hard. They appear to be trying him out at shortstop, in an effort to get him, Roberts and Cota in the lineup at the same time. Judging from his error-filled, 0-for-4 nights there, I’m not sure it’s working out so well. If I ran the zoo, my solution would be a one-way ticket to Manchester for Carlo Cota, but luckily for Jays’ fans everywhere, I don’t. Nonetheless, Tablado remains really interesting.
Tracy Thorpe, RHP, 12/15/80
Dunedin 2004
2-2, 3.38, 21 G, 0 GS, 34 IP, 20 H, 17 BB, 32 K, 1 HR
Speaking of flying under the radar … Thorpe threw in the mid-90s and was developing a nice curveball in June 2002 when he tore his labrum in 2 places. After a lengthy and difficult rehab, Thorpe is finally back on the mound, and though I haven’t seen any fresh scouting reports, the numbers indicate that opposing batters aren’t touching his stuff. His command is off, something perhaps to be expected from a recovering pitcher, and it wasn’t really that hot to begin with. Thorpe is a work in progress, but the big man (6’4”, 250 lbs) is getting closer all the time.
Jayce Tingler, OF, 10/28/80
Dunedin 2004
272 AB, 45 R, .250/.373/.298, 13 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 43 BB, 17 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
He looks to be banging his head on a glass ceiling, and that has to start hurting eventually. Everyone knows Tingler will never hit for hardly any power, but still, one lone double in the entire month of June is not good. He’s maintaining his utterly unreal BB/K and BB/AB rates, but the fact is that it’s hard to get out of any league with a sub-.300 slugging percentage. This may take a little while yet.
Low-A Charleston Alley-Cats
Danny Core, RHP, 07/17/81
2004 Charleston
5-5, 3.72, 15 G, 15 GS, 82 IP, 72 H, 25 BB, 65 K, 7 HR, 9 HB, 19.6% KBF
Core’s numbers stayed very consistent from May through June, which probably wasn’t what he was hoping for. As Gerry has pointed out elsewhere, Core has had a number of really good starts and a few really terrible ones, which has left his season totals pretty average for the South Atlantic League. I don’t know if that’s because the better offences light him up, or he’s having some problems focusing on every start, or if it’s something else. The K numbers are not where they need to be to indicate dominance, so he’ll have to keep at it.
Robinzon Diaz, C, 09/13/83
2004 Charleston
246 AB, 31 R, .252/.298/.317, 8 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 14 BB, 16 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
You know what, ignore everything else in this batting line and look just at the strikeouts. He has only 16 Ks in 246 at-bats. Diaz, who won’t turn 21 till September, is only striking out once every 15 at-bats in the most strikeout-prone circuit in the entire minor leagues. That, folks, is awesome bat control, and it’s got to mean something. The walks, the power, even the average are still works in progress. But this young man knows what to do with a bat in his hands.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 01/15/82
2004 Dunedin
2-5, 5.61, 14 G, 14 GS, 61 IP, 73 H, 20 BB, 40 K, 6 HR, 14.3% KBF
2004 Charleston
0-1, 13.50, 1 G, 1 GS, 4 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR
Wow, what happened here? After a stellar debut at Auburn last year and a decent start at Dunedin, Isenberg just imploded in May and June, and is now struggling at Charleston. Everything’s wrong -- too many hits, too many walks, too many homers. It seems in hindsight that Isenberg was over-promoted to the FSL and should’ve started in the Sally -- but his Auburn numbers were hardly any different from Josh Banks’, and there was absolutely no indication that this kind of meltdown was coming. I’ve heard no indication of injury problems, so hopefully his stint at Charleston will help settle Isenberg down and get him back in a groove.
Clint Johnston, 1B, 07/22/77
2004 Charleston
271 AB, 51 R, .273/.375/.465, 24 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 45 BB, 73 K
Eventually, the Jays will have to decide what to do with Johnston, a six-year free-agent signed in the off-season and converted from the mound far too late for him to have a major-league career. Yeah, that’s a lot of K’s, and he’ll turn 27 this month, but I have little doubt he could contribute to a team as high as Double-A right now (and the Fisher Cats could use the help). Toronto may, however, quite reasonably want to keep him in the Sally in a mentoring role to the peach-fuzzed youngsters who pass through that clubhouse, and that would be just fine. Still, those stats make you pause and think about what might have been….
Tom Mastny, RHP, 02/04/81
2004 Charleston
5-2, 1.94, 15 G, 15 GS, 83 IP, 69 H, 26 BB, 71 K, 2 HR, 21.1% KBF
Ever see a movie called Left Behind, a Christian-themed movie about the end of the world, starring Kirk Cameron? It was about The Rapture, and how numerous people found themselves unexpectedly left behind when the Chosen were called up to heaven. I’ll bet Tom Mastny could empathize. In fairness, Charleston needed to keep at least one of its great starters in order to stay competitive, and Mastny’s strikeout numbers are not as overpowering as those of Marcum and James. In fact, a combination of low H/IP and ordinary K/IP rates looks worrisomely like what Chad Pleiness did last year. Mastny should do better than that, but he’s going to be under some scrutiny till he gets those strikeouts back up.
Joey Reiman, C, 12/20/80
2004 Charleston
190 AB, 27 R, .268/.368/.347, 12 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 22 BB, 38 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
Don’t forget about this guy. Reiman was a player the Jays’ front office was glad to have snagged in the later rounds of the 2003 draft, and he’s making slow but steady progress. He has an excellent batting eye and some nascent power; it’s been mostly doubles so far, but the big-fly pop could arrive eventually. Keep him on long-range sensors and see how he does when he hits Dunedin.
Davis Romero, LHP, 03/30/83
2004 Charleston
1-2, 2.38, 1 SV, 23 G, 5 GS, 53 IP, 33 H, 12 BB, 55 K, 2 HR, 26.2% KBF
He didn’t get called up to Dunedin, but Romero got the next best thing: a trip to the starting rotation, where he’s off to a fine start in limited action. We must remember three important things about Davis Romero: (1) he’s small (5’10”, 140 lbs), (2) he’s never thrown more than 51 innings in a season, and (3) no really, he’s small. This is not an arm or a frame that is ready to take much wear and tear, and at 21, Romero has a lot of time to build up strength over the next season or two. I’d like to see him start 2005 in Dunedin, but for now, the Charleston rotation looks real good on him. The Jays may have themselves something special here.
Felix Romero, RHP, 06/18/80
2004 Charleston
6-3, 3.20, 3 SV, 29 G, 0 GS, 50 IP, 44 H, 16 BB, 69 K, 3 HR, 32.7% KBF
Hi, I’m Felix Romero. You may remember me from my last season and a half, when I ran up a combined line of 119 IP, 107 H, 41 BB and 146 K. Yet I wasn’t promoted last month and have spent the last 2 ½ seasons here in Charleston. Why, yes, I am 24 years old and still pitching in the South Atlantic League. No, that KBF number is not a misprint. Thanks for asking!
David Smith, OF, 01/12/81
2004 Charleston
238 AB, 42 R, .273/.375/.420, 9 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 33 BB, 66 K, 4 SB, 0 CS
The only thing here I don’t much like is the strikeouts (22 in his last 78 AB), which are barely acceptable with a .420 slugging percentage and which make me worry about how well Smith will do against more advanced pitching than is found in the Sally. Plus, he’s halfway to 24, and that’s not a good age to find oneself in Low-A Ball. Realistically, though, there are a lot of talented outfielders ahead of him who are posting more than respectable numbers at higher levels. Smith’s not doing anything wrong, and he can still contribute to the Blue Jays’ organization for several ears to come. Not everyone in the minors will make it to the majors; not everyone is supposed to. It doesn’t mean they’re any less valuable.
Christian Snavely, OF, 05/07/82
2004 Charleston
164 AB, 25 R, .244/.369/.409, 12 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 32 BB, 61 K, 3 SB, 2 CS
The OPS has risen by about 60 points, which is of course quite good, though his earlier sample size wasn’t huge. Plus, his BB/K gap almost doubled in the last month, and he’s sitting on a whole lot of strikeouts at the moment. But we’re splitting hairs; this is the first real sign of progress from Snavely since he turned pro, and the tools at his disposal offer encouragement that he can still make a splash. Watch the power column over the next few months.
