That double still sure worked to MYSTIFY the D-Rays. Though some might argue in was *in excess* of what a Moneyball manager should do.

make that 'double steal'

Very nice! The song was Mystify by INXS. You win 100 million points, a picture of a cuttlefish (to be given later today), and this awful webcomic I found with the Livejournal Random Images Generator:

These people who sit waiting to pounce on the song of the day really irritate me. Especially when they beat me to the cuttlefish.

Why do these moron writers in Toronto still refer to the Jays AA affiliate as New Haven? Do they not realize that the franchise moved to New Hampshire after last season? They cover a Major League baseball team and they have no idea what the correct minor league affiliates are? That's pathetic!

Kielty for Lilly looks like a great deal, especially considering that Kielty's value looked like it had bottomed out after last year. He's really collapsed this year, and although we've wound up needing the OF depth, it'd be really frustraing to watch him after giving up Stewart for him. Anyone ready to admit that BK isn't as good as Stewart, or are people still clinging to that ludicrous idea? Normally, I'm not a fan of selling low, as it looked like JP did with BK, but he bought pretty low too, and obviosuly made the right call in evaluating both players.

Nice to see the Jays running more. I know it isn't the best strategy in terms of maximizing offensive output, but I enjoy it.

I still think BK's playing hurt (if you watch him hit, he doesn't look right). Before I'd say once he gets healthy, he'll bounce back. Now I think his injuries are permanent and he's close to being done.

Stewart would be gone this year if the Jays had traded him or not, so I don't see what "although we've wound up needing the OF depth, it'd be really frustraing to watch him after giving up Stewart for him" has to do with anything. It should be less frustrating than, say, watching Jose Cruz play, as taking the contracts into account, I'd rather have Cruz.

Point is that having BK suck (and he has sucked- .309/.389 by a corner OF) in Stew's old role would draw a lot of heat to the move. The way it wound up working out looks great so far- Stew for 2 years of Lilly. Yeah, Stewart was gone anyway, but after last year, before the Lilly deal, it looked like JP chose the wrong guy to get for him.

You'll get no argument from me that Kielty has been bad. Hard to swing the bat well when you're constantly being nagged by ribcage injuries.

I wouldn't mind having Cruz right now. He's only making $2.5 M, and we're paying Ligtenberg $2 M, Adams $1.7, Spier $1.6 to have non-crucial bullpen roles. I'll pop Cruz's .370 OB% into the leadoff slot. I know this is heresy here, but I'd rather have him than Johnson...

I wonder if this year's 'pen will shift JP's attitude on bullpen construction? It'll be interesting- a lot depends on how Frasor, Chulk, and Peterson perform- if they pitch well, there's relly not much need for multimillion vets out there.

I wonder if this year's 'pen will shift JP's attitude on bullpen construction? It'll be interesting- a lot depends on how Frasor, Chulk, and Peterson perform- if they pitch well, there's relly not much need for multimillion vets out there.

I don't think we'll see many or any of our higher-priced bullpen arms back if Frasor and Chulk continue to perform well and Peterson raises his game to MLB level.

I'd rather have Cruz than Dave Berg in the outfield, that's for sure.

The thing about Kielty is that he's doing what he has done for a while now:

vs. lefthanders: .259/.329/.530
vs. righthanders: .179/.293/.269

He can mash lefties and can't hit a lick against righties. He was that way in Toronto. You can see that he has a fundamentally better swing batting righthanded. Whether that's a product of an injury or not I don't know but (absent one year of decent productivity against righties) it's the story of his whole career so I suspect that he just can't hit batting left handed. The problem in Oakland is that they already have Byrnes and Dye so there aren't a ton of AB's against lefties. My take on Keilty is that he is what he is. A good half of a platoon outfielder. That doesn't equal Lilly's value.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/splits?statsId=6630&type=batting&year=2002

I wonder if this year's 'pen will shift JP's attitude on bullpen construction? It'll be interesting- a lot depends on how Frasor, Chulk, and Peterson perform- if they pitch well, there's relly not much need for multimillion vets out there.

At least JP had the good sense to avoid offering multi-year deals to any of the veteran reliever types he brought in. Speier and Adams can be kicked to the curb at the end of the year. The only albatross is Kerry Ligtenberg.

He can mash lefties and can't hit a lick against righties. He was that way in Toronto. You can see that he has a fundamentally better swing batting righthanded. Whether that's a product of an injury or not I don't know but (absent one year of decent productivity against righties) it's the story of his whole career so I suspect that he just can't hit batting left handed.

I agree Kielty's lefthanded swing is butt ugly. It actually reminds be a lot of Simon Pond. But Kielty hasn't always been useless against RHP. COMN for his 2002 splits.

Maybe pitchers adjusted and he didn't. 0r as Nigel suggested, he hurt himself and his LHB swing is broken.

I can't imagine Kielty having a huge platoon split in the minors, as he hit around .280 down there and played full time. So unless he hit .400 against lefties, this is probably a relatively new phenomenon.

Hentgen is out as the 5th starter. Once Justin Miller gets healthy it looks like the Jays will try and move Hentgen.

Late again. Damm!:)

If JP can get anything for Hentgen that will be a better deal than jettisoning Mondesi (still JP's best deal in my opinion).

I doubt that Hentgen will be traded, as the market for his services, in light of his performance this year and his salary, will be soft. He'll make a fine long man/mentor for the Jays.

I can't imagine Kielty having a huge platoon split in the minors, as he hit around .280 down there and played full time

This is going off of memory, but I remember Kielty not having severe splits in the minors (or at least that's what BP said one year). At this point it's hard to say that he doesn't however.

Speculation over at Rotoworld is that David Bush may get Hentgen's next start. Perhaps a second JP draftee will make it to the bigs this year.

Wilner's on the Fan right now and says he believes that Hentgen must be hurt.

There might be something wrong with Hentgen that's interfering with his mechanics, but nothing with the shoulder or elbow (he'd be shut down pretty quickly if that were the case - probably be on the DL already). He's not normally as wild as he'd been the last two times out.

I, too, think Bush is the most likely replacement. I hate to say it, but I think File might be dfa-ed if they have to add Bush or someone else to the 40-man.

That's a white ninja comic and they're hilarious...

www.whiteninjacomics.com

It would be a shame to lose File, who's shown a ton of guts coming back from his injuries. (He's one of the guys you just cheer for regardless...) Ultimately, though, it's no great loss for the Jays and the move to another organization without so many up-and-coming pitching prospects might help his career.

It could also be Nakamura who gets DFA, depending on how much interest there was on him last time he went down. I imagine Nakamura would be more in demand than File anyway, if only for his more consistent minor league success.

How about if they activate Estalella from the DL and designate him.

They can do that too, but that only clears a space on the 40-man roster, and not the 25-man roster. They need both for Bush.

Unrelated-
Does anyone think Gross gets recalled before September? Is his shoulder something that will recover in season? He's hit a lot better, and if Phelps can't return to form, seems like they'd want to get a look at Gross.

"It works on so many levels..." :)

LOL, Great idea Craig. This one may need some photoshopping, but the idea's there.

How about this sign:



I don't know what it has to do with anything, but I'd like to see them put THAT on the TV broadcast.

Estalalalalala was put on DL the 18th, so he is not eligible according to the jays "official" site. I say "official" losely, I believe this to be the better place :)

In case anyone cared when I mentioned it before ;-), I am still working on PTS+ for an OPS+ like hockey statistic that measures offensive output against league average. Like OPS in baseball, pts / 82 GP is the stat that is measured against league average. In these numbers forwards and defensemen are all piled together and treated evenly. I started researching and compiling this stuff as part of a bitter Gretzky v. Lemieux argument I've been embroiled in with a friend of mine. Here's a copy of an e-mail I sent him this evening with a few interesting notes I have found (if there's any hockey fans left out there. Moffat will appreciate at least one mention in here - especially if he's old enough to remember some of the pre-Cup FLames teams)

I've completed stats for the seasons from 1979-80 to 1987-88 and I also did 2003-04. The highest league average player so far was in 1981-82 (51 pts / 82 GP) and 2003-04 the average was 32 pts / 82 GP. A little fact that surprised me was that Calgary, and not Edmonton, lead the NHL in scoring in 87-88 (Gretzky missed 18 games ... In turn, only Messier and Gretzky scored 100 points for the Oil that year, the other normal 100 point guys (Kurri and Anderson and Coffey didn't). I've already seen Gretzky's first 9 seasons and Lemieux's first 4.

Remember, a league average player scores 100. Someone who scores 150 is 50% better than league average, someone who scores 300 is 200 % better than league average and someone who scores 50 is 50 % *worse* that league average.

In Gretzky's first fours years he has scores of 358, 345, 427, and 428
In Lemieux's first four years he has scores of 236, 307, 312, and 398

Lemieux still wasn't playing in Gretzky's fifth year, where Gretzky scored a 475 (the best score I've seen yet)

In Lemieux's first four years, Gretzky scored 446, 461, 423, and 425.

Gretzky was clearly the better offensive player in their younger years. In Gretzky's first four years combined he was 290 % better than the average scorer (709 pts in 319 games which is 183 pts / 82 GP. The league average over those four years was 47 pts / 82 GP. 183 / 47 * 100 = a 390 PTS+). In Lemieux's first four years combined he was 209 % better than the average scorer (516 pts in 292 games which is 145 pts / 82 GP. The league average over those four years was 47 pts / 82 GP. 145 / 47 * 100 = a 309 PTS+).

To give you a further idea of league average and it's effects. In 2003/04 a 41 pts / 82 GP player (half a point per game - Darcy Tucker this past year for example) is 29 % better than the league average scorer. In 1981-82 that same performance (41 pts / 82 GP) would be 19 % *worse* than league average.

Martin St. Louis, btw, was 194% better than league average (a 294 PTS+) this year and Peter Forsberg, though in only 39 GP, scored a 363.

RE: Bush. (David, not the other, more terrible one)

Can they take Estalalala off the DL, DFA him to Syracuse, then put him on the injured list there? (If he gets claimed, no matter.) If so, he can come off any day now, so that opens up a 40-man spot.
Then, File can be sent down to make room for Bush.

Now, with respect to Delgado, that's simple. Clark goes down.

Recap:
Estalella activated, then designated for assignment (39/40)
File optioned to AAA (24/25)
Bush placed on 25 and 40-man rosters (25/25, 40/40)
Clark optioned to AAA (24/25)
Delgado activated from DL (25/25)

Make sense?

Hey Donkit,

Did you do a forward/defence breakdown on the scoring?

And, since I'm not doing the work, I know they have ice-time stats now, which might be better long-term.

And the powerplay/shorthanded effect.

Anything else I missed?

In all seriousness though, cool stuff, and very interesting. I'm kind of curious to see if this kind of statistical analysis can be applied to hockey in as an effective a manner as with baseball.

(David, not the other, more terrible one)

Hey, lay off Matt Bush -- he's just a kid who drank too much, that's all. :-)

O-Dawg... right now Defensemen and Forwards are lumped together and, long-term, I'd like to do the ice time thing (as well as divide d-mena dn forwards) but right now my goal is to cover the careers of Gretzky and Lemieux, really, to feed my own curiosity (and I wanted to see how a season like St. Louis' would stack up).