Here's some Monday morning food for thought for y'all.
It's not the bullpen's fault
I often think that fans expect too much from the Jays' bullpen. How many times have I heard something like this? "The Jays had a 3-2 lead after seven, but the bullpen couldn't hold it." What they're expecting here is for the bullpen to pitch two shutout innings every time out. Even Eric Gagne can't do that: for example, in his last outing, Gagne actually gave up a run (the horror! the horror!), but still got the save because he had a two-run lead to work with. All things being equal, the opposition is more likely to score in the late innings than the early innings, especially with a one-run lead: they'll send up the hot-hitting pinch hitter from the bench, or they'll play little ball to get the tying run. It's always important to remember that the other guys are trying to win too.
Which brings me to a related complaint: how much of an individual pitcher's "success" is just random chance? While I'm pleased that Vinny Chulk did the job last night - I think he will be a useful pitcher - I fear that the Jays will read more into his successful outing than may be warranted. I predict that (a) Chulk will get all of the key setup situations from now on until (b) he fails, as all pitchers do from time to time, at which time (c) he'll be moved to the bottom of the heap (or even to the minors, as happened to Mike Nakamura), and (d) whoever had the last hot outing will be moved to the top. While it's always good to go with a pitcher who is having a run of success, I worry that the constant role-swapping will undermine the bullpen's success as a whole.
Going, going, Zaun
Obviously, the Jays made a good move when they signed Gregg Zaun. He's hitting well, and he's playing decent defense. But making him the full-time everyday catcher, which seems to have happened recently, may be an example of the Domingo Cedeno Effect in action.
If you don't remember Domingo Cedeno - and why should you? - he was a mediocre middle infielder who hung around the Jays for a few years. When Felipe Crespo got hurt just before opening day in 1996, Cedeno wound up with the second base job by default, and immediately went on a tear, hitting about .350. He had never hit like that before, and never would again - but, understandably, he kept playing, as you can't bench somebody who is hitting that well. Crespo never got his job back, and eventually drifted out of the organization. (After, to be fair, being given a trial in the outfield, in which he didn't hit.)
Zaun may be another example of this. He's currently hitting .339 with some power and some walks. Bless him. But his career average is .246 (with on-base of .332 and slugging of .371), and he'll regress to that mean soon enough. (He's hitting .274 for June as I write this.) And Kevin Cash, who is supposedly one of the potential catchers of the future, is being left to rot on the bench.
I suppose you can't blame Carlos Tosca for making this decision. His job is to win right now, or else he'll likely get fired. And Cash isn't hitting. But one thing the Jays need to know is whether Cash can hit enough to be a major league regular, or whether he's the next Ken Huckaby. In a year or two, they'll have to decide: do they keep Cash, or do they give the job to Quiroz? This was the year they were supposed to figure that out - now, they won't have enough information to make an informed choice.
Set Josh Phelps Free!
You know your career is in trouble when they're playing Howie Clark and Dave Berg ahead of you, and that's what's happened to Josh Phelps. Have they given up on him? To be honest, I wouldn't blame them if they have - to me, it seems obvious that Phelps's long swing makes it difficult for him to make adjustments at the plate. To keep from being punched out by offspeed breaking stuff at the corners, he's had to become more defensive, and this has taken away his power. And, without power, Phelps has nothing to offer as a hitter.
If the Jays have given up on him, they should trade him as soon as possible while he still has value. Right now, there are probably several major league teams who would be willing to take a flyer on Josh - after all, he was a Baseball Prospectus cover boy and all that. They could get somebody useful for him (just as they got Jason Frasor for Jayson Werth).
But if they haven't given up on him, why on earth isn't he playing? Choose one or the other! Free Josh Phelps!
Who's on First?
I was thinking about Carlos Delgado the other day, and to me the question of whether the Jays can win without Delgado is now obvious. Of course they can. But they can't win unless they have a cleanup hitter hitting as well as Delgado did last year. Since it looks like Phelps isn't a viable option at first (see above), the Jays have three options available to them for next year:
(a) Re-sign Delgado, hopefully at a home-town discount, and hope he gets back to close to his 2003 form.
(b) Sign a big bomber to play first (or to play the outfield, and move Cat or somebody to first).
(c) Take the money they used to pay Delgado and stuff it in their trouser pockets.
I'm not sure (a) is a viable option. Somebody is going to throw a whole lot of money at Delgado in the offseason, just as the Angels threw a huge wad at Kelvim Escobar; $55 to $60 million over four years is my guess. And I don't think the Jays are willing to spend that much on a player who is now in his decline phase. Their only hope is that Carlos might be willing to take a bit of a discount to stay here. And he might; it all depends.
(c) would be a bad move, tempting as it is for the folks at Rogers, who are discovering that they can't conquer the world through media convergence. If the Jays concentrate on executing a financially viable business plan, the fans may decide to give up on the team and stay home and watch Nude Celebrity Bowling or something like that.
This leads to (b). If the Jays don't re-sign Delgado, there's no one on the farm to replace him. The Jays' system is stacked with outfielders, middle infielders, and pitching prospects, but there isn't a power-hitting big bomber coming up the ladder (I don't think Vito counts as one yet). The team desperately needs somebody in the middle of the lineup who can make baseballs disappear over fences. Perhaps there's one out there somewhere. And while you can't win a pennant by buying free agents (unless you're George Steinbrenner, and can buy all of them), you can upgrade a club significantly by using a free agent to fill a hole, and show the fans that, yes, you are actually trying to win here.
And it's not as though all free agents are evil; look at Miguel Batista, for instance, who seems to be earning his money.
Great Expectations
Despite all the misfortunes that have happened, and the misfortunes soon to come, I'm still in J.P. Ricciardi's corner. The only way you can win in baseball is to try to develop star players in your farm system, and J.P. is doing the best he can to do that.
However, I wonder whether he has raised expectations a wee bit too high. The basic idea we've been presented is this: we all wait patiently for three or four years, and then, when the farm system comes to full flower, we watch as the Jays kick butt and take names. This, unfortunately, leaves two things out of the equation:
- You need luck to succeed;
- All the other guys are trying to win too.
One thing that has been underemphasized, in my opinion, is that scouting and development is a bit of a crapshoot. All a scouting department can do is try to find the best players it can, and then cross their fingers. An example: Mike Piazza was a 62nd round pick in the 1988 amateur draft; he was only picked as a favour to his godfather, Tommy Lasorda. The Dodgers can't be given too much credit for finding him; he was basically a gift from the gods.
On the other hand, Dustin McGowan looked like a sure thing right up to the point at which his arm shredded. Now, he'll be out for at least a year, and it will probably be two years before he gets back to where he was before.
My concern is that fans may turn away in droves when they discover that, despite the Jays' best efforts, they're still not top of the heap in 2005 or 2006. Certain baseball writers are probably already salivating at the thought of writing a "See, we told you so!" article. Oh, well; I suppose that any GM who says, "Hey, I'm not sure we're likely to win, but I'm willing to try my best to do so," is not likely to get the job. It's like politics: if you make realistic promises, you don't get into office.
Anyway, that's more than enough from me, especially for a Monday. Comments definitely welcome; thanks for reading this far.
It's not the bullpen's fault
I often think that fans expect too much from the Jays' bullpen. How many times have I heard something like this? "The Jays had a 3-2 lead after seven, but the bullpen couldn't hold it." What they're expecting here is for the bullpen to pitch two shutout innings every time out. Even Eric Gagne can't do that: for example, in his last outing, Gagne actually gave up a run (the horror! the horror!), but still got the save because he had a two-run lead to work with. All things being equal, the opposition is more likely to score in the late innings than the early innings, especially with a one-run lead: they'll send up the hot-hitting pinch hitter from the bench, or they'll play little ball to get the tying run. It's always important to remember that the other guys are trying to win too.
Which brings me to a related complaint: how much of an individual pitcher's "success" is just random chance? While I'm pleased that Vinny Chulk did the job last night - I think he will be a useful pitcher - I fear that the Jays will read more into his successful outing than may be warranted. I predict that (a) Chulk will get all of the key setup situations from now on until (b) he fails, as all pitchers do from time to time, at which time (c) he'll be moved to the bottom of the heap (or even to the minors, as happened to Mike Nakamura), and (d) whoever had the last hot outing will be moved to the top. While it's always good to go with a pitcher who is having a run of success, I worry that the constant role-swapping will undermine the bullpen's success as a whole.
Going, going, Zaun
Obviously, the Jays made a good move when they signed Gregg Zaun. He's hitting well, and he's playing decent defense. But making him the full-time everyday catcher, which seems to have happened recently, may be an example of the Domingo Cedeno Effect in action.
If you don't remember Domingo Cedeno - and why should you? - he was a mediocre middle infielder who hung around the Jays for a few years. When Felipe Crespo got hurt just before opening day in 1996, Cedeno wound up with the second base job by default, and immediately went on a tear, hitting about .350. He had never hit like that before, and never would again - but, understandably, he kept playing, as you can't bench somebody who is hitting that well. Crespo never got his job back, and eventually drifted out of the organization. (After, to be fair, being given a trial in the outfield, in which he didn't hit.)
Zaun may be another example of this. He's currently hitting .339 with some power and some walks. Bless him. But his career average is .246 (with on-base of .332 and slugging of .371), and he'll regress to that mean soon enough. (He's hitting .274 for June as I write this.) And Kevin Cash, who is supposedly one of the potential catchers of the future, is being left to rot on the bench.
I suppose you can't blame Carlos Tosca for making this decision. His job is to win right now, or else he'll likely get fired. And Cash isn't hitting. But one thing the Jays need to know is whether Cash can hit enough to be a major league regular, or whether he's the next Ken Huckaby. In a year or two, they'll have to decide: do they keep Cash, or do they give the job to Quiroz? This was the year they were supposed to figure that out - now, they won't have enough information to make an informed choice.
Set Josh Phelps Free!
You know your career is in trouble when they're playing Howie Clark and Dave Berg ahead of you, and that's what's happened to Josh Phelps. Have they given up on him? To be honest, I wouldn't blame them if they have - to me, it seems obvious that Phelps's long swing makes it difficult for him to make adjustments at the plate. To keep from being punched out by offspeed breaking stuff at the corners, he's had to become more defensive, and this has taken away his power. And, without power, Phelps has nothing to offer as a hitter.
If the Jays have given up on him, they should trade him as soon as possible while he still has value. Right now, there are probably several major league teams who would be willing to take a flyer on Josh - after all, he was a Baseball Prospectus cover boy and all that. They could get somebody useful for him (just as they got Jason Frasor for Jayson Werth).
But if they haven't given up on him, why on earth isn't he playing? Choose one or the other! Free Josh Phelps!
Who's on First?
I was thinking about Carlos Delgado the other day, and to me the question of whether the Jays can win without Delgado is now obvious. Of course they can. But they can't win unless they have a cleanup hitter hitting as well as Delgado did last year. Since it looks like Phelps isn't a viable option at first (see above), the Jays have three options available to them for next year:
(a) Re-sign Delgado, hopefully at a home-town discount, and hope he gets back to close to his 2003 form.
(b) Sign a big bomber to play first (or to play the outfield, and move Cat or somebody to first).
(c) Take the money they used to pay Delgado and stuff it in their trouser pockets.
I'm not sure (a) is a viable option. Somebody is going to throw a whole lot of money at Delgado in the offseason, just as the Angels threw a huge wad at Kelvim Escobar; $55 to $60 million over four years is my guess. And I don't think the Jays are willing to spend that much on a player who is now in his decline phase. Their only hope is that Carlos might be willing to take a bit of a discount to stay here. And he might; it all depends.
(c) would be a bad move, tempting as it is for the folks at Rogers, who are discovering that they can't conquer the world through media convergence. If the Jays concentrate on executing a financially viable business plan, the fans may decide to give up on the team and stay home and watch Nude Celebrity Bowling or something like that.
This leads to (b). If the Jays don't re-sign Delgado, there's no one on the farm to replace him. The Jays' system is stacked with outfielders, middle infielders, and pitching prospects, but there isn't a power-hitting big bomber coming up the ladder (I don't think Vito counts as one yet). The team desperately needs somebody in the middle of the lineup who can make baseballs disappear over fences. Perhaps there's one out there somewhere. And while you can't win a pennant by buying free agents (unless you're George Steinbrenner, and can buy all of them), you can upgrade a club significantly by using a free agent to fill a hole, and show the fans that, yes, you are actually trying to win here.
And it's not as though all free agents are evil; look at Miguel Batista, for instance, who seems to be earning his money.
Great Expectations
Despite all the misfortunes that have happened, and the misfortunes soon to come, I'm still in J.P. Ricciardi's corner. The only way you can win in baseball is to try to develop star players in your farm system, and J.P. is doing the best he can to do that.
However, I wonder whether he has raised expectations a wee bit too high. The basic idea we've been presented is this: we all wait patiently for three or four years, and then, when the farm system comes to full flower, we watch as the Jays kick butt and take names. This, unfortunately, leaves two things out of the equation:
- You need luck to succeed;
- All the other guys are trying to win too.
One thing that has been underemphasized, in my opinion, is that scouting and development is a bit of a crapshoot. All a scouting department can do is try to find the best players it can, and then cross their fingers. An example: Mike Piazza was a 62nd round pick in the 1988 amateur draft; he was only picked as a favour to his godfather, Tommy Lasorda. The Dodgers can't be given too much credit for finding him; he was basically a gift from the gods.
On the other hand, Dustin McGowan looked like a sure thing right up to the point at which his arm shredded. Now, he'll be out for at least a year, and it will probably be two years before he gets back to where he was before.
My concern is that fans may turn away in droves when they discover that, despite the Jays' best efforts, they're still not top of the heap in 2005 or 2006. Certain baseball writers are probably already salivating at the thought of writing a "See, we told you so!" article. Oh, well; I suppose that any GM who says, "Hey, I'm not sure we're likely to win, but I'm willing to try my best to do so," is not likely to get the job. It's like politics: if you make realistic promises, you don't get into office.
Anyway, that's more than enough from me, especially for a Monday. Comments definitely welcome; thanks for reading this far.
