I haven’t seen any papers yet today (it’s 5:30am as I begin to write) but after witnessing Jason Frasor’s performance last night, a pitching outing marred more by bad luck than outright failure, I’ve no doubt that some Toronto writer is going to whine about this Blue Jays squad not having a true closer. The reality is, though, that closers are made, not born, and the few men fortunate enough to have this title for a major league team have all been made from different kinds of material.
It’s absolutely true that the Blue Jays don’t have an elite, obvious closer on their roster right now – a Mariano Rivera or an Eric Gagne who can shorten a game for their teams. How are the Yankees and Dodgers so lucky? They made their closers, of course. Rivera and Gagne are both failed starters who found success in the closer role before they ever got to be expensive “elite closers”. Most guys get thrust into the job, because of a desperate need or some reason other than foresight, and some end up sticking. Every GM probably wishes it were more scientific than that but it’s not immediately obvious who will become a superior closer and who will become Darren Hall.
Curiously, I took a look at the other 29 MLB teams to see how the guys who get the ball at the end of games started out closing in the first place. Good or bad, whether they have the job outright or have it just for this week, I peeked into each closer’s roots and loosely classified them into 4 categories:
1) The Always Been Closing (ABC) Group is just as the title suggests. This is the small group of pitchers who have closed games since they arrived in the majors.
2) The Promoted Middle Reliever Group are those pitchers who didn’t close or start that much in the minors or the majors and suddenly ended up with the job anyway.
3) The Failed Starters Group started games in the minors and the majors and ended up veering into closerdom. Often, all of the veering may have taken the player briefly through middle relief but these guys were mostly starters throughout their career before closing.
4) The Usedtobea Starters Group had success in the starting role but were converted to closer for “enlightened” reasons.
The list:
Anaheim – Francisco Rodriguez: Promoted Middle Reliever
Arizona – Jose Valverde: He’s had to share the job since AA but has pretty much Always Been Closing.
Atlanta – John Smoltz: Maybe the most famous case of Usedtobe Starterism.
Baltimore – Jorge Julio: Always Been Closing
Boston – Keith Foulke: Failed Starter
ChiCubs – Joe Borowski: Promoted Middle Reliever
ChiSox – Billy Koch: Always Been Closing
Cincinnati – Danny Graves: Always Been Closing, more or less
Cleveland – Jose Jimenez: Failed Starter
Colorado – Shawn Chacon: Usedtobea Starter. A 4.60 ERA in Colorado isn’t horrible.
Detroit – Ugueth Urbina: Failed Starter
Florida – Armando Benitez: Always Been Closing (Baltimore likes to hand the job to kids, don’t they?)
Houston – Octavio Dotel: Failed Starter
Kansas City – Jeremy Affeldt: Failed Starter
Los Angeles – Eric Gagne: Failed Starter
Milwaukee – Danny Kolb: Promoted Middle Reliever
Minnesota – Joe Nathan: Failed Starter
Montreal – Chad Cordero: Always Been Closing, except for this year
NY Mets – Braden Looper: Promoted Middle Reliever
NY Yanks – Mariano Rivera: Failed Starter
Oakland – Arthur Rhodes: could be either a Promoted Middle Reliever or a Failed Starter
Philadelphia – Billy Wagner: Always Been Closing
Pittsburgh – Jose Mesa: Failed Starter
San Diego – Trevor Hoffman: Always Been Closing
San Francisco – Matt Herges: Promoted Middle Reliever
St. Louis – Jason Isringhausen: Failed Starter
Seattle – Eddie Guardado: See Arthur Rhodes
Tampa Bay – Danys Baez: Usedtobea Starters
Texas – Francisco Cordero: Always Been Closing, mostly. It’s obvious the Tigers were grooming him.
This isn’t to say that there aren’t usually experienced and elite closers available for the Blue Jays to go out and grab on the offseason free agent market. Nor am I suggesting that all failed starters and promoted middle relievers are going to be good in a closer role – far from it. The point is simply that most closers stumble into the role, as you can see from the above, and out of that experimentation and risk sometimes comes great success. It might not be smart for a contending team to take chances with high pressure situations at the end of a game. But a team like the Jays, with a longer term plan in mind, can afford to gamble cheaply in the years leading up to the successful ones. I don’t blame the Jays for trying to make their closer by going through all of their options. Sometimes you have to throw everything up against the wall and see what sticks.
It’s absolutely true that the Blue Jays don’t have an elite, obvious closer on their roster right now – a Mariano Rivera or an Eric Gagne who can shorten a game for their teams. How are the Yankees and Dodgers so lucky? They made their closers, of course. Rivera and Gagne are both failed starters who found success in the closer role before they ever got to be expensive “elite closers”. Most guys get thrust into the job, because of a desperate need or some reason other than foresight, and some end up sticking. Every GM probably wishes it were more scientific than that but it’s not immediately obvious who will become a superior closer and who will become Darren Hall.
Curiously, I took a look at the other 29 MLB teams to see how the guys who get the ball at the end of games started out closing in the first place. Good or bad, whether they have the job outright or have it just for this week, I peeked into each closer’s roots and loosely classified them into 4 categories:
1) The Always Been Closing (ABC) Group is just as the title suggests. This is the small group of pitchers who have closed games since they arrived in the majors.
2) The Promoted Middle Reliever Group are those pitchers who didn’t close or start that much in the minors or the majors and suddenly ended up with the job anyway.
3) The Failed Starters Group started games in the minors and the majors and ended up veering into closerdom. Often, all of the veering may have taken the player briefly through middle relief but these guys were mostly starters throughout their career before closing.
4) The Usedtobea Starters Group had success in the starting role but were converted to closer for “enlightened” reasons.
The list:
Anaheim – Francisco Rodriguez: Promoted Middle Reliever
Arizona – Jose Valverde: He’s had to share the job since AA but has pretty much Always Been Closing.
Atlanta – John Smoltz: Maybe the most famous case of Usedtobe Starterism.
Baltimore – Jorge Julio: Always Been Closing
Boston – Keith Foulke: Failed Starter
ChiCubs – Joe Borowski: Promoted Middle Reliever
ChiSox – Billy Koch: Always Been Closing
Cincinnati – Danny Graves: Always Been Closing, more or less
Cleveland – Jose Jimenez: Failed Starter
Colorado – Shawn Chacon: Usedtobea Starter. A 4.60 ERA in Colorado isn’t horrible.
Detroit – Ugueth Urbina: Failed Starter
Florida – Armando Benitez: Always Been Closing (Baltimore likes to hand the job to kids, don’t they?)
Houston – Octavio Dotel: Failed Starter
Kansas City – Jeremy Affeldt: Failed Starter
Los Angeles – Eric Gagne: Failed Starter
Milwaukee – Danny Kolb: Promoted Middle Reliever
Minnesota – Joe Nathan: Failed Starter
Montreal – Chad Cordero: Always Been Closing, except for this year
NY Mets – Braden Looper: Promoted Middle Reliever
NY Yanks – Mariano Rivera: Failed Starter
Oakland – Arthur Rhodes: could be either a Promoted Middle Reliever or a Failed Starter
Philadelphia – Billy Wagner: Always Been Closing
Pittsburgh – Jose Mesa: Failed Starter
San Diego – Trevor Hoffman: Always Been Closing
San Francisco – Matt Herges: Promoted Middle Reliever
St. Louis – Jason Isringhausen: Failed Starter
Seattle – Eddie Guardado: See Arthur Rhodes
Tampa Bay – Danys Baez: Usedtobea Starters
Texas – Francisco Cordero: Always Been Closing, mostly. It’s obvious the Tigers were grooming him.
This isn’t to say that there aren’t usually experienced and elite closers available for the Blue Jays to go out and grab on the offseason free agent market. Nor am I suggesting that all failed starters and promoted middle relievers are going to be good in a closer role – far from it. The point is simply that most closers stumble into the role, as you can see from the above, and out of that experimentation and risk sometimes comes great success. It might not be smart for a contending team to take chances with high pressure situations at the end of a game. But a team like the Jays, with a longer term plan in mind, can afford to gamble cheaply in the years leading up to the successful ones. I don’t blame the Jays for trying to make their closer by going through all of their options. Sometimes you have to throw everything up against the wall and see what sticks.
