a) Lilly finally had a nice easy first inning. I haven't checked every start of his but on the 5 I've looked at he's averaged 22 pitches in the first innings. It's really hampered his ability to go deep into games;
b) Tosca choosing Clark over Phelps makes no sense to me, but if you must have Clark in the line-up you could play him at second, so choosing Gomez over Phelps makes even less sense to me.
Scully is on the mlb.com audio (Dodgers feed), but the mlb.com quality is awful tonight (I can barely hear it with the volume turned up full; there are lots of hisses and skipping).
Of course, Gomez promptly doubles just to prove me an idiot. I'll take it! F-Cat really should have done better with that AB but I guess you need to cut him and his .346 average some slack!
I'll post this here (a more appropriate place for discussion is in the "Conquering Myself" roundup thread but I want to draw attention to it). Feel free to ignore, if you're interested solely in the game thread ;-)
Admin - If it comes down to it, removing this post and mentioning that it's in the Roundup thread would be greatly appreciated.
For lack of a better place to post it, I have a couple of basic statistical questions to ask here. I'm trying to compile an advanced (compared to hockey standards - very basic, really) hockey statistic I'll call "Points Plus" (pts+) just for the hell of it. Does it work for me to : Add up all of the man games played on a certain team (i.e. the 79-80 Edmonton Oilers with 1,413) ; add up all of the points scored by non - goalies (840 in their case) and arrive at their players' average pts / 82 GP with this - 82 / 1,413 X 840. I know that this is very basic, but I just want to have all of my bases covered. In turn, would it then work to add up the NHL's entire non-goalie man games played in a specific year (i.e. 29,927 in 79-80) ; add up all of the points scored by non-goalies in that season (14,573 in this case) and arrive at an average pts / 82 GP per player with - 82 / 29927 X 14573?
If this makes sense to anyone (and isn't too far below their level of statistical thinking ;-) ) I'd like confimation that this works. The above numbers aren't quite exact (certain portions of some traded players seasons are counted twice) I only did this in an hour or two this evening. I chose 79-80 because it was Wayne Gretsky's rookie year and I want to compile these numbers to help settle a Gretzky vs. Lemieux argument I have been embroiled in for nearly a year.
My way of thinking is that the perfectly average offensive contributor would score a zero in this for the particular season. These are the numbers I have looked at so far:
79-80 Average NHLer - 40 pts / 82 GP Wayne Gretzky - 143 pts / 82 GP and therefore has (143 - 40) 103 pts+ Morris Lukowich (Winnipeg's leading scorer) - 78 pts / 82 GP and 38 pts+ Ian Turnbull (Leafs content, yay!) - 43 pts / 82 GP and 3 pts+
This, by no means, would ever be able to tell you who the most complete hockey player is (defense and intangibles mean more in hockey than, say, baseball or basketball IMO), and it compares defensemen and forwards as offensive equals, but it will, I hope, be a way to compare offensive contributions across eras (I once had somebody tell me Joe Sakic was better than Gordie Howe because of their average point outputs. The difference, of course, being the era wherein Sakic has 1 Hart and 0 Art Ross' while Howe has 6 of each). I've been thinking about looking at a stat like this for awhile and was bored this evening. Hopefulyl what I've done is legitimate (albeit primitive).
Remember, I am NOT looking for perfection but merely something quick and dirty. Something that takes a little work, but is by no means difficult. I want to be able to show this to someone who still feels a player isn't great if they don't win a championship and will say a great player isn't great based on the small sample size of a playoff year (he is, however, still in his early 20s so maybe I can convert him to the statistical side ;-) )
Did anyone else think that Rios could have / should have caught that double by Green? It looked like a poor route to the ball.
I don't know if he could have caught it, but it did seem like a really bad route to me... and after the announcers were commenting on how much better he is now at tracking the ball. Ouch!
I hope he'll get better as he gets used to playing in the Dome, because he reminded me far too much of Shannon "Magellan" Stewart out there.
Hadn't he been playing CF before making the big club? Wouldn't that account for the struggles more than anything else (different spin off the bat, different angles and routes)? I'm not too concerned, unless he's played right extensively before - not everybody is a freak like Miguel Cabrera!
Interesting, though - does anyone know how much time (if any) Rios spent in RF in Syracuse? Presumably the Jays would have wanted him to have had some experience there.
Me? not really. But my parents had an awful lot of Queen, I just happened to recognize that one.
I do like a couple of J.P.'s recent trades like Lilly/Kielty (although when you factor in Stewart I'm not sure) and Jason/Jayson (It may be too early to make a call on that one).
Important to remember that a lot of these trades were really about clearing out salary. Besides the Mondesi trade. Alex Gonzales had a four year deal at 5 million per year, which is insane (and actually, Woody does have a better bat at least.) I loved Quantrill (the omnipotent Q, all-seeing, all-knowing) but 3.5 mill for a setup guy doesn't work with the Jays budget. Koch for Hinske and Miller works as a baseball trade, but it also was part of the overall salary dump.
Ya, you're right. Heredia was lights out and Woodward has been an improvement over Gonzo. Silly me!
Gotta remember the salary situation. If they keep Gonzalez, that's 5 million less they have to spend on pitching. So it's not Gonzalez for Heredia, so much as Gonzalez for Batista, because there's no way they have the budget for Batista if Gonzo is still on the books.
That really looked like a ball Rios could have reached. At the speed he was running it would have be a shoetopper (at least that's what it looked like from that angle) and I suspect he could have been pursuing it harder. It really looks like he's so worried about errors that he's playing very conservatively.
Ryan, that's pretty neat. I've gotta think Todd Hollandsworth drove in Mark Grudzielanek (or vice versa) as Dodgers a few years ago, or probably will at some point this year as Cubs. That'd be 25.
Hey! My day just keeps gettin better. Started developing PTS + , got a *smokin* new digital camera (from as far as this non-tecchie can tell) and now this. Thanks for the heads up Mr. Lind ;-)
Whoa, that really is useless stuff ;-) . So useless that even Jayson Stark (publisher of "Useless Info", "Really Useless Info", and "Reader's Useless Info)was inspired to crack jokes about it ;-).
Joe - Tuesday, June 08 2004 @ 09:49 PM EDT
(#59141) #
http://me.woot.net Love to see a hard player like Clark beat the runner to first to make the final out, but the first thing I thought was "Oh, great, he's going to tear a ligament."
I was thinking the same thing.. "Oh man.. not another injury!".
Great win by the Jays. Rios had another rough one, but I think he'll bounce back sooner or later. At the same time, until he gets more experience, don't expect him to be anything more than a .220 hitter with little power.
The last few games have been a bit of a tease given their inconsistency, but Batista and Lilly have been showing us how strong the front end of the rotation could be.
I know, I know, Rios is the Jays' RF of the future. But I would like to see him to play out the year in Syracuse. I can understand bringing him up because of injuries, but otherwise I prefer JP's previous policy: bring up players when they're ready.
I can understand bringing him up because of injuries, but otherwise I prefer JP's previous policy: bring up players when they're ready.
I don't think JP would have made that move under any sort of normal circumstances. I imagine he'll be back down next week, unless he goes on some huge tear. Even then, he still might be sent down. (Just my guess, I have no idea what the Jays are thinking)
Lalonde says that every player they took was because they thought they were the best player in that spot, not signability considerations, Thigpen no exception. He praises ownership for their support.
Lalonde talks about relying on scouts, Wilner asks him to elaborate and debunk the myth of the Jays doing everything by computer. Jon says scouts are given a clear set of directives and philosophies and the scouts go out and execute it.
Wilner asks about Randy Dicken - how do the Jays account for the quality of competition? Keith Law gets involved, but again it's a matter of having a good scout.
I would have liked him to have asked about Adam Lind, one of our third round picks, because thats the main one I thought was questionable if signability wasnt an issue. I mean, did they think he would be taken in the next round?
Nomo's crazy windup.... crazy naked streaker guy jumping over the outfield wall.... big jay blowout win... could todays game be any better? The answer is no.
I was at the game. No way Rios catches that ball regardless of route - it was blistered. I'm not necessarily saying his route was optimal, but he wasn't close to catching it
_Fawaz K - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 12:19 AM EDT
(#59156) #
63 players have 9 or more homers; none are Jays. 130 have 6 or more; 2 are Jays.
I really think they've turned the corner and I know a lot of this is due to injury so I'm not posting these numbers to be negative; I just find them stunning.
_t - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 12:24 AM EDT
(#59157) #
Great game. Lilly's performance goes without saying. Hate to say it, but Batista might get roughed up tommorrow. I really hope J.P.'s hand was forced with Izturis. He didn't really show anything tonight, but, he's been hitting lately and his D is solid. Ahh well, you win some...
_Jacko - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 12:38 AM EDT
(#59158) #
I really hope J.P.'s hand was forced with Izturis. He didn't really show anything tonight, but, he's been hitting lately and his D is solid.
Izturis is still _really_ young, so he'll probably continue to improve to the point where his offense is ok. He looks like Omar Vizquel to me at this stage of his career, which isn't all that bad.
However, Chris Woodward isn't exactly chopped liver either. He has a lot more power than Izturis, and plays solid D as well (good range, _great_ arm).
_Jurgen - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 01:38 AM EDT
(#59160) #
Did he really jump from the first deck? Is that even possible?
I don't know if it's possible, but that's what he did.
He clearly hurt himself, though. He didn't try to run as security rushed him (that's got to be the worst job in the world--tackling the naked guy), and seemed to be hobbled as they ushered him groin first off the field.
_A - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 01:46 AM EDT
(#59161) #
When I noticed him, he was in CF so he must've jumped from the first deck. My guess would be that he ran from one of the bathrooms into the OF seats, then dropped his "cover" and slipped from the seats, to the OF wall and down to the turf. I must say, it looked like he suffered some awful rug burn on the tackle -- there's nothing comfortable about SkyDome turf.
_Jobu - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 01:47 AM EDT
(#59162) #
I didnt see him enter the field at all so I cant even say where he came from really. The security crew looks alot like the worlds fastest clean up crew from the 500s so at first I thought the worlds fastest cleanup crew darted onto the field for no good reason. Then I saw the naked guy. He didnt run, he just stood and pointed to rushing guards in a mocking way "so whose going to tackle me? You? Is it you? This guy here?". I hoped one of him was going to slam him Terry Tate style but they didnt and pulled him off the field.
I then looked into the dugout to see Sparky and Woody jokingly estimate the size of the mans package using their hands. Now that was worth a laugh.
_Eric - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 02:49 AM EDT
(#59165) #
I think it's ridiculously unfair to say J.P. got ripped on Izturis. While he's certainly hitting for average so far this year, he's still only got 11 walks in 22 AB's and his power isn't anything, either. For his whole MLB career he has just 52 walks in 1352 AB's. Prior to this year, his career line is .246/.270/.319. His minor league numbers are equally poor. He's just not at all good.
About Adam Lind, while I'm not crazy about the selection, you really have to take into consideration that he was a draft-eligible sophomore. Just look at some of the juniors in this year's draft and compare their lines to their sophomore years. It says a lot.
_Eric - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 03:00 AM EDT
(#59167) #
Jobu, what really sticks out for me about the Anaheim game is that they've only picked up 2 walks in 55 AB's. I know they're free swingers and that Sheets didn't give up a single walk through nine, but that's nuts.
The thing to keep in mind about Izturis is that if IF he becomes a replacement level shortstop, it'll be at the point in his career that he'll be too expensive.
I'm sorry, but I doubt JP has lost any sleep over trading Cesar.
_Ryan01 - Wednesday, June 09 2004 @ 09:43 AM EDT
(#59171) #
I think Eric is right about Lind. You have to keep in mind that he was a sophomore. I really like the trio of Lind, Metropoulos and Cannon. (You could even throw in Thigpen if you wanted). It's like they took the strategy for drafting pitchers in bulk in the early rounds to drafting potential sluggers. Between those guys at least one of them should break out and give the team a pretty solid power bat.
Izturis is playing well and is one of the better major league SS right now. Good for him! It was a good deal that we got unlucky on. It's gonna happen. If this is the worst deal that JP ever makes then we should consider ourselves lucky.
http://www.southalabama.edu/athletics/results/baseball/2004/Teamcume.html More on Lind. His season statistics were .392/.456/.659 as of May 28. COMN. He has struck out in less than 10% of his ABs. He's been coming on.
As he's less than 21, this is a medium risk/high reward pick. I like it.
I agree that J.P. is probably not worrying about losing Izturis, but to imply that he's a below replacement level shortstop is absurd. L.A. is a tough place to hit and he's a well above average defensive shortstop (the range he showed up the middle on a grounder was phenomenal, and he made an over-the-shoulder bloop attempt look like easy money). When you put the package together, along with his improvement with the bat this season and his youth, there's every expectation that he'll be an overall average shortstop for years to come.
The million dollar question with Izturis is whether he shows signs of baseball smarts. If he does, his pitch recognition (and hence OBP) and baserunning awareness (and hence stolen base percentage) will improve as he ages, as it did for Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel.
We're not likely to know about his future for another 2 years at least. But, I'm quite sure that overall he will be in the middle of the pack for NL shortstops for the next 2-3 years.
My fault, I should have been more specific. I know that Izzy is a great defensive player. I meant that the big question is whether or not he ever becomes an average hitter--even average for a shortstop. This begs a second question, this one for all of us. Do we really think Izturis' progression with the bat this year is real. I'm sorry but when someone walks and strikes out as little as Izturis it means that they put the ball in play a lot. That, to me, signifies that the player is prone to huge slumps and huge streaks. His real ability is somewhere between what he did last year and what he is doing this year. I'm willing to bet it's closer to the former.
My other point still remains. If Izturis becomes a decent hitter, after flailing away at pitches for the better part of four major league seasons, won't he become too expensive just when he's becoming useful? For the Dodgers this isn't an issue. We all know that the Dodgers either have money or McCourt will simply borrow more. However Toronto isn't the same. If he had stayed here, he'd have been flailing away on Toronto's dime while we'd all know full well that he'd be going to a richer team just as he's showing signs of becoming good.
I was surprised Izturis was hitting well over .300 so far this season. I thought he showed some promise when he was here 3 years ago. He sure could run and steal some bases. Howie Clark found about his speed during the final out of the game! I thought Izturis made a couple of tough plays look really easy last night. Yes, I also liked the fact he wore number 2 here so I admit I have an affinity for players who wear my favourite number (but not Dave Berg the way he's playing this year!!). I was really surprised the fans let Shawn Green off the hook and I think there were more cheers than boos during his first at-bat. I felt like I was the only one booing from section 518 last night. Still, that was a nice poke over the wall to ruin Lilly's goose egg. Nice to see the SkyDome people have a sense of humour by playing John Mellencamp's "Dance Naked" after the streaker made his appearance. Nice return for Woodward with that 2 run single in his first at-bat and Howie Clark makes Tosca look like a genius with 4 RBI including his first ML home run. It was a great night to catch a game with the roof open and the weather cooling off just enough. I wish I could go tonight, especially with former London Tiger Jose Lima on the hill for the Dodgers to face his former teammate Chris Gomez. I had an autographed program by Lima but I lost it. Who knew then he'd become a 20 game winner!
Vizquel and Izturis both came up at around the same age. Vizquel, like Izturis, was horrible in his first few years, but his defense was so good nobody cared. Eventually, Omar figured out what he was doing and became a very effective hitter. It wouldn't surprise me if Izturis did the same thing. There's an equally good chance he'll have a similar career arc to Alex Gonzalez, Cristian Guzman, and Luis Rivas: come up at an early age and fail to make any significant improvments.
ha! 6 Ks for a single player not long after we discussed that very event here at Da Box. That just tickled me as noteworthy, you can go back to the regularly shceduled program ;-)