The sample sizes are a little bigger, the flashes in the pan have started to fade, and we’re getting a clearer picture of the Blue Jays’ top prospects. Only one or two players are having truly breakout seasons, but a lot of blue-chip prospects are rounding into shape. Here’s your May 2004 Farm Report.
AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
Russ Adams, SS, Born August 30, 1980
2004 Syracuse
194 AB, 24 R, .278/.363/.402, 19 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 24 BB, 20 K, 1 SB, 2 CS
That’s more like it. After a terrific May that featured a 13-game hitting streak, Adams has his average up in the .280 range where it belongs. He’s maintained solid plate discipline and has raised his slugging percentage about 40 points in a month. His power is still mostly doubles, but that’s all he’ll have for another season or two. Much better news: just one error in May. He’s on a roll and should be in Toronto no later than next April.
Jason Arnold, SP, 05/02/79
2004 Syracuse
1-3, 3.65, 7 G, 7 GS, 37 IP, 40 H, 12 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 9.3% KBF
His shoulder is hurting, and that could explain a lot. Arnold has evidently lost several mph off his fastball over the past several months, and even the mechanical adjustments this spring didn’t help. There’s no word yet whether he’ll simply rehab or will need surgery; I’d almost prefer the latter if it fixes the problem permanently. It’s at least good to know there’s a reason why this prized pitcher has been struggling so badly.
David Bush, RHP, 11/09/79
2004 Syracuse
5-4, 4.85, 11 G, 11 GS, 65 IP, 74 H, 16 BB, 59 K, 5 HR, 20.7% KBF
He’s been pitching better than those numbers indicate, but that doesn’t mean he’s been pitching tremendously well. Bush’s BB/K rate was almost identical in both April and May; the difference is that he’s giving up a whole lot more hits, including 4 home runs in the last 29 innings. Bush’s calling card is his control, and when you’re around the plate that much, you’ll get knocked silly if your command is off by an inch. Bush is learning the hard way that his margin of error has narrowed considerably at Triple-A; it’s to his credit, however, that he’s kept his composure and is sticking to his game. He’ll come out of this relatively rough patch and he'll prosper.
Shawn Fagan, 1B, 02/03/78
2004 Syracuse
152 AB, 26 R, .263/.378/.362, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 26 BB, 36 K
The Walking Man continues to demonstrate the best batting eye in the organization north of Jayce Tingler, but Fagan isn’t hitting for much power, and lately hasn’t been hitting much at all. Fagan needs to get that OBP over .400 to receive further consideration as a poor man’s Kevin Youkilis.
Bob File, RHP, 01/28/77
2004 Syracuse
1-0, 0.57, 10 G, 0 GS, 4 Sv, 15 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 0 HR
It seems like every conversation about Blue Jay pitching prospects inevitably features the question, “Whatever happened to Bob File?” Following shoulder surgery that involved shaving away part of his collarbone, File has returned to active duty. The ERA and the command is good, but those are very few strikeouts for a guy some people envision as a closer. The thing of it is, File didn’t have good strikeout rates even before his injury: in his 2001 rookie debut, he posted an unimpressive 29/38 BB/K rate in 74 IP. Remember Darren Hall, who saved 17 games for Toronto back in 1994 and was never really effective again? Bob File is Darren Hall.
Kevin Frederick, RHP, 11/04/76
2004 Syracuse
0-0, 3.00, 2 G, 0 GS, 3 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 1.27, 18 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 21 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 26 K, 1 HR, 30.2% KBF
He’s filed under Syracuse, even though all but 3 of his innings were recorded at New Hampshire before his recent promotion. But what innings they were down at Double-A: Frederick dominated opposing hitters, though the ERA is a little misleading insofar as he allowed 4 unearned runs against 3 earned runs in those 21 innings. Unfortunately, Frederick is 27, and he’s spent considerable time in the high minors already; he even drank some coffee in The Show with Minnesota. He’s been hammered in his two previous Triple-A trials, so he has to hope that it’s third time lucky.
Gabe Gross, RF, 10/21/79
2004 Syracuse
157 AB, 24 R, .280/.352/.439, 9 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 18 BB, 39 K 1 SB, 3 CS
The bad news is, Gross injured his arm last month and can’t throw, limiting this fine outfielder to DH duty for the rest of the year; minor surgery reportedly remains a possibility in the off-season. The good news is, Gross found his stroke, and how: his OPS jumped 200 points during the month of May, and his BB/K rate was a much more respectable 15/19. He’s probably going to have only 15-homer power for the next couple of seasons, but soon after that, the taters could start coming in bunches. His injury and Alex Rios’ promotion has thrown Gross’s timetable into some doubt. He can’t play the outfield in Toronto, and the DH slot at Skydome is full; accordingly, he’s probably looking at a full year in Syracuse. With nothing to do but work on his hitting against increasingly overmatched Triple-A competition, Gross could have some fun in 2004.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 11/29/81
2004 Syracuse
66 AB, 8 R, .258/.351/.424, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K
He had just started to heat up again when a pitched ball broke his left hand, placing Quiroz on the DL for an indefinite length of time. Assuming it has no lingering effects, the injury isn’t that big a setback. Quiroz was going to need a full season in Syracuse anyway, to refine his defence and work on his approach at the plate; he’s still quite young and could do with the additional seasoning. What were the odds that on June 1, Greg Myers, Kevin Cash and Guillermo Quiroz would all be injured? Weird.
Jorge Sequea, 2B, 10/01/80
2004 Syracuse
107 AB, 14 R, .243/.314/.290, 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 9 BB, 22 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
A step backwards in May for Sequea, and at a bad time too. With injuries striking down Toronto’s starting double-play combination last month, Sequea could have earned a promotion and a chance to start a long and profitable career as a major-league utility infielder. But Sequea slumped, then injured his quad muscle and has missed the last two weeks of action. The Blue Jays subsequently picked up Frank Menechino, and a window of opportunity closed. If or when that window will re-open is something that might keep Sequea up at night.
AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Josh Banks, RHP, 07/18/82
2004 Dunedin
7-1, 1.80, 11 G, 11 GS, 60 IP, 49 H, 8 BB, 60 K, 4 HR, 26.1% KBF
I’m obviously cheating a little, because Banks was just promoted from Dunedin a few days ago. But I very much doubt he’ll see A-Ball again, unless it’s on a (God forbid) rehab assignment somewhere down the line. Banks deserved the call-up, because there was little left for him to do in the Florida State League; that line represents what sheer dominance looks like. I fully expect Banks to be on a tight pitch count for the remainder of the season. After throwing 36 innings in college at age 19 and 34 innings in college at 20, he threw 167 innings between college and Auburn last year, at the age of 21; he won’t turn 22 till July. Now, you can throw a lot of innings without necessarily throwing too many pitches, and Banks has never shown any signs of weakness or weariness to this point. But after what happened to the previous two guys to bear the mantle of Best Pitching Prospect In The Organization, expect the Jays to take every reasonable precaution with this young man, who has "major-leaguer" written all over him.
Gustavo Chacin, LHP, 12/04/80
2004 New Hampshire
4-1, 3.15, 10 G, 10 GS, 54 IP, 49 H, 18 BB, 32 K, 8 HR, 13.7% KBF
Chacin continues to get the job done, and there aren’t too many lefty hurlers in the Jays’ organization who can say that. But the BB/K and K/IP rates are weaker than they should be, and that’s usually a sign that the wheels are close to coming off. Those HRs allowed lead the Fisher Cats, and only Syracuse’s Josue Matos (with 10) has given up more in the entire organization. I don’t think this story will have a very happy ending.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 04/12/79
2004 New Hampshire
1-1, 4.22, 18 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 21 IP, 24 H, 9 BB, 22 K, 1 HR
This time last month, DeJong had pitched only 8 innings, and it was impossible to say anything about that performance. He has more IP under his belt now, so we can say that he’s still looking a lot like last year’s model: a lot of strikeouts, but too many walks and not enough missed bats. He’s in serious danger of being passed by the wave of good pitching rising higher in the organization every day.
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 07/10/79
2004 New Hampshire
187 AB, 32 R, .251/.317/.358, 7 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 17 BB, 30 K, 16 SB, 3 CS
Considering that a month ago his line stood at .143/.211/.200, Godwin is in tremendous shape. A hot May vaulted him back into the prospect ranks, particularly on the basepaths. Did someone issue an organization-wide memo and forget to copy Tyrell? He has three times as many stolen bases as any other prospect in the system. But two-thirds of the Toronto outfield is now set for the next three years, and Gabe Gross figures to complete the troika in 2005, so don’t expect to see Godwin wearing a Toronto uniform outside of spring training. Those stolen-base numbers are gaudy, and if he gets his average above .285, Godwin could become very attractive in trade talks.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 11/19/79
2004 New Hampshire
151 AB, 19 R, .212/.326/.371, 6 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 25 BB, 55 K
This is not going well at all. Griffin got his average back over .200, as he inevitably would, and has added substantial power in the last month. But those strikeouts are completely out of control: he’s whiffing in more than one-third of his at-bats. I haven’t seen him in action, and I don’t know whether he’s swinging and missing a lot trying to make contact, or taking too many pitches in an effort to be patient, or if he’s still hurt (he drew four walks in one game the other day, so perhaps it’s the second possibility). But unless he starts putting the bat on the ball, Griffin will have little chance at Triple-A, let alone the big leagues. Considering his college career and the expectations that surrounded him when the Jays acquired him, Griffin really needs to get it in gear.
Aaron Hill, SS, 03/21/82
2004 New Hampshire
172 AB, 23 R, .250/.354/.331, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 29 BB, 22 K
Much like Russ Adams, whom he’s shadowing, Hill’s rebound from a slow start was inevitable when you looked at the excellent BB/K and BB/AB numbers he was sporting, even when he was batting .210 on April 30. The SLG may not look impressive, but it’s up 100 points in the last month, and it will continue to climb. Remember: Hill has exactly five months of pro ball under his belt, and the first three were spent in A Ball; he’s handing this huge leap remarkably well. His defence is still shaky, though (14 errors already), and even more so than Adams, Hill may be destined for another position.
Ryan Houston, RHP, 09/22/79
2-0, 3.34, 11 G, 2 GS, 32 IP, 29 H, 18 BB, 37 K, 2 HR, 26.6% KBF
Houston has spent the last five years of his life in A-Ball, and the reason for that is primarily his command. Splitting last season between Charleston and Dunedin, Houston struck out 92 batters in 81 innings against only 58 hits; but he also issued 41 walks. However, 2003 was also the first season in which Houston converted a whole lot of base hits to strikeouts, so it’s possible that at 25, he’s figured something out. It’s more of the same so far in Double-A, lots of Ks and lots of BBs -- but he’s holding his own, and sometimes he’s truly dominant. He’s a major longshot at this point, but he deserves to be on the radar screen.
Brandon League, RHP, 03/16/83
2004 New Hampshire
0-2, 3.19, 16 G, 1 GS, 31 IP, 24 H, 18 BB, 23 K, 1 HR, 16.6% KBF
Thanks to the video work of some fellow Bauxites, I got a chance to see League’s stuff and delivery, and all I can say is: wow. Tremendously sharp, biting, powerful fastballs thrown from a ¾ angle can be devastating. Unfortunately, it appears that League himself doesn’t always know where his great pitches are going, and opposing hitters have figured this out too. His walk rate is very poor, and he’s starting to allow more hits than he should as well; his KBF percentage is wildly inconsistent with his K/IP ratio, because he’s facing so many hitters. It’s important to remember how young Brandon is for this league, and that he’s adjusting to a brand new role as a reliever. I think he might struggle somewhat throughout 2004, but if he learns from these challenges and adjusts, he’ll start overwhelming people right when they least expect it.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 03/24/82
2004 New Hamphsire
2-0, 4.06, 6 G, G GS, 31 IP, 24 H, 15 BB, 29 K, 4 HR, 22.3% KBF
Sigh. The good news is that McGowan’s surgery went very well and that he’s already back in Dunedin rehabbing his arm. The better news is that recovery times from TJ operations are getting shorter all the time, and the vast majority of pitchers return with their stuff intact, if not enhanced by the muscle and conditioning provided by the rehab assignments. File him away in your happy place and we’ll revisit him in 2005.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 05/18/79
2004 New Hampshire
2-2, 3.32, 20 G, 0 GS, 10 Sv, 21 IP, 18 H, 8 BB, 29 K, 1 HR, 32.2% KBF
I essentially said last month that Peterson has nothing left to prove at Double-A; he’s spent the last four weeks proving it. Maybe the command isn’t airtight, and maybe he’s had one or two bad innings, but that’s about all there is to question here. Peterson, as mentioned before, is in a quandary: he needs innings, but he’s also overmatching Eastern League hitters. That dilemma has to be resolved, and I think it will be resolved in favour of a promotion. I don’t see any way that Peterson is not in Syracuse by the time we do this again at the end of June.
Cam Reimers, RHP, 09/15/78
2004 New Hampshire
6-2, 3.32, 9 G, 9 GS, 55 IP, 53 H, 12 BB, 26 K, 6 HR, 11.6% KBF
He’s still pitching well, but I still think Reimers has no real future any higher than Double-A. His strikeout rate is terribly low, and offers no assurance that he can dominate the better hitters out there; the KBF concurs. But he’s a workhorse ace starter for a beloved new franchise in a very nice city; there are worse stations in life.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 08/22/79
2004 Hew Hampshire
176 AB, 30 R, .261/.359/.392, 10 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 24 BB, 21 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
He’s leveled off somewhat after a hot early April -- one of the few in the entire Jays’ system, I might add -- but the BB/K and BB/AB numbers are still quite good. I haven’t seen Rich play, nor have I had the benefit of catching the Fisher Cats’ excellent broadcast crew, so I can’t add anything to reports that Rich has become a slick fielder (though I note for the record that he has 10 errors). But I hope he has, since I'm coming to think his bat alone will not be able to carry him to the major leagues.
Francisco Rosario, SP, 09/28/80
2004 New Hamphsire
0-2, 7.30, 4 G, 4 GS, 12 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 8 K, 2 HR
2004 Dunedin
1-1, 4.67, 6 G, 6 GS, 17 IP, 16 H, 11 BB, 16 K, 2 HR, 20.0% KBF
I honestly don’t know what to say here. He had one pretty good start, one brilliant start, and two terrible starts for New Hampshire, the latter one of which he left with some kind of arm problem, which bothered him in Dunedin too. His health has been a subject of a lot of speculation hereabouts, much of it distressed. What does seem clear is that Rosario has not returned from Tommy John surgery 100% healthy and ready to roll; he is still a work in progress physically, and he apparently cannot be put on a regular schedule at this point. Adjust your expectations and suspend any big plans for Rosario till 2005; whatever he provides this year should be considered a bonus at this point.
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 06/13/81
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 1.61, 19 G, 0 GS, 8 Sv, 22 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 25 K, 2 HR, 28.1% KBF
Dunedin’s closer is putting together a fine season, ripping the bats out of opposing hitters’ hands and shutting the door for 8 saves in the team’s first two months. Nonetheless, Bubbie doesn’t usually appear on many Jays’ prospect lists. Certainly, the organization isn’t grooming him for multiple-inning appearances, as it’s doing with more favoured prospects like Jamie Vermilyea and Brandon League. But Buzachero is still young and still learning his craft, and I haven’t seen anything in his career to date to justify leaving him off a prospect list. If the Jays agree, he should be in New Hampshire soon, perhaps no later than mid-season.
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 10/26/80
2004 Dunedin
191 AB, 20 R, .283/.369/.466, 15 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 24 BB, 49 K
Big Vito has cooled down after a hot start, and those strikeouts are mounting, though he’s battled wrist injuries throughout and we may not be seeing a true picture of his abilities yet. He’s maintaining a good eye at the plate, and he’s still showing good power, but he’s not dominating the Florida State League the way he did the NY-Penn. It’s true the FSL drains offensive firepower; but still, Vito is 22nd in BA, 16th in OBP and 12th in SLG amongst FSLers. He’s very good, and he’ll probably get a bit better, but he’s not ripping up the league in a way that suggests future big-league slugger. This is an unfair comparison, but when he was in the Florida State League in 1992, Carlos Delgado posted a .324/.397/.579 line with 30 doubles and 30 HRs -- at 20 years old, playing catcher. I don’t raise this to diminish Vito, who’s doing just fine and will emerge with more power once he hits Double-A; just to adjust expectations.
Carlo Cota, 2B, 09/18/80
2004 Dunedin
190 AB, 37 R, .284/.347/.400, 14 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 18 BB, 44 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Cota’s bat has really started to heat up as the mercury rises in Florida, but he’s not all the way there yet. His power is mostly in the doubles category so far, and he’s barely maintaining the 1/1- BB/AB ratio decreed from on high, while watching his K’s mount. He’s definitely speeding up, but he needs to accelerate the rate at which he’s improving.
Scott Dragicevich, 3B/1B, 06/28/80
2004 Dunedin
158 AB, 26 R, .272/.376/.399, 11 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 25 BB, 41 K
Virtually nothing differentiates Dragicevich’s May from his April, except for a slight power increase. But that consistency should be considered a good thing, especially in the walks department, because he needed to show he could maintain his on-base ability. Dragicevich has started some good work towards a utility infielder position somewhere down the line; Simon Pond looked a little like this at around the same age.
Neomar Flores, RHP, 03/12/82
2004 Dunedin
1-3, 7.24, 11 G, 9 GS, 41 IP, 62 H, 12 BB, 22 K, 7 HR, 11.6% KBF
This is what you call a bad month: 21 IP, 41 H, 7 BB, 6 K, 3 HR. One bad month isn’t enough to make anyone give up on a prospect, but when that prospect has had a tenuous career up to this point already, it does make it harder for him to stay in the organization’s line of sight. And the one thing you don’t want to do as a minor-league baseball player is to make the organization forget about you.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 01/15/82
2004 Dunedin
2-3, 4.95, 10 G, 10 GS, 43 IP, 46 H, 13 BB, 34 K, 4 HR, 17.5% KBF
Isenberg’s May wasn’t quite as bad as Flores’, but he did throw two truly awful starts onto the board, and he rarely dominated in his other action. The drop in his strikeout rate is not a good sign, and needs to be reversed. Isenberg is highly thought of, and he’s supposed to post strong performances in the FSL; he ought to return to doing that over the next couple of months.
Rodney Medina, OF, 10/17/81
88 AB, 7 R, .216/.296/.284, 2 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 BB, 11 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
I called him a sleeper in my pre-season report and I haven’t changed my mind. He lost most of the early season to injuries and has been shaking off the rust since his recent return, but the plate discipline is encouraging in the early going. He’ll heat up over the course of the summer, and I think he’ll end up with a fine season.
Miguel Negron, OF, 08/22/82
2004 Dunedin
111 AB, 14 R, .288/.380/.414, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 13 BB, 23 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
He sure didn’t need to lose two or three weeks to injuries; Negron already missed half of last season and there’s only so much development time available, especially since this is his last year in the organization before 40-man roster decisions need to be made. But he’s definitely holding his own in the average and walks columns, and he’s been hitting the ball very well since he returned from the DL. Hopefully he can continue his production and even pick things up a notch over the course of the summer.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 09/27/81
2004 Dunedin
0-3, 5.74, 5 G, 1 GS, 15 IP, 22 H, 8 BB, 16 K, 0 HR, 3 WP
He’s spent all of May on the DL with whatever injuries drove him there in the first place (we’re not privy to players’ health information), so the best you can say is that Perkins didn’t regress any. I’ve heard no indication that his ailments are terribly serious, so hopefully we’ll see him back on a mound soon.
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 03/05/80
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 3.29, 15 G, 0 GS, 27 IP, 31 H, 11 BB, 19 K, 2 HR, 15.7% KBF
The ERA is about the only good thing on his record; his ratios, especially the BB and K-related ones, are not promising. I had the dubious pleasure of listening in on one D-Jays game where Pleiness entered in relief and threw fuel on the fire in a game the Jays eventually lost by a touchdown and field goal. That’s about a small a sample size as you can get, but I can’t say I was impressed. At his age, at this level, he needs to turn things around in a hurry.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 03/03/81
2004 Dunedin
4-5, 2.83, 11 G, 11 GS, 63 IP, 58 H, 13 BB, 39 K, 1 HR, 15.5% KBF
His command is still good, though not breathtaking; his strikeouts are only okay, and dropping. What’s quite remarkable is that Ramirez has allowed only 1 home run in his 11 starts, and that may be helping him stay afloat despite peripherals that are not very encouraging. I’ve said before that he may prosper better in the bullpen, and I’ll say it again for added effect. The K rate is a big red flag.
Raul Tablado, 3B, 03/03/82
2004 Dunedin
47 AB, 10 R, .404/.451/.787, 6 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 4 BB, 11 K
That’s about as nice a first 50 at-bats as you’re going to see, even if it was spread over two months. Tablado returned from the DL with a vengeance, hitting even better than before he was injured. Of course, this is so small a sample size as to be called a hot streak and little more. But we’ll definitely be checking on him this time next month.
Jayce Tingler, OF, 10/28/80
Dunedin 2004
189 AB, 35 R, .249/.392/.312, 12 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 11 HBP, 35 BB, 13 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
And now he's met his first roadblock. Tingler is still posting tremendous walk numbers and is getting hit more than is healthy for anyone whose job description is not "professional stuntman." But it doesn’t much matter how many walks you get if your average is below .250. He will rebound from this -- he hit .395 his final year of college -- but be aware that the concern about Tingler is that his slight stature means power pitchers could knock the bat right out of his hands. If that ever did come to pass, this is pretty much what his stat line would look like.
Santo Valdez, RHP, 10/07/81
2004 Dunedin
1-0, 6.90, 16 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 30 IP, 39 H, 9 BB, 25 K, 4 HR, 18.3% KBF
Considering that he was shelled for about 8 or 9 runs in one inning of work at the beginning of May, that’s a pretty darn impressive line. Ignore for a moment the ERA and the hits allowed; those categories are still skewed. The BB/K numbers are alright, and if he can turn about 5 walks a month into strikeouts, they’ll be even better. He’s still a fringe prospect, but keep him on the radar.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 02/10/82
2004 Dunedin
3-1, 3.49, 15 G, 3 GS, 38 IP, 40 H, 9 BB, 29 K, 4 HR, 18.1% KBF
His second month at High-A was pretty much exactly the same as his first: a few too many baserunners, a few too few strikeouts. These are not bad numbers by any means, and in his defence, Vermilyea has been slotted into both starting and relief roles while the Dunedin rotation underwent various shuffles. They’re just not the kind of numbers you want to see from a legitimate pitching prospect in the FSL, and they’re entirely removed from the sensational stats he recorded in his rookie debut last summer. If his 2004 season continues in this vein, then Vermilyea may end up as just one more data point in the “Don’t take short-season stats very seriously” argument.
Jason Waugh, OF, 03/12/80
2004 New Hampshire
163 AB, 25 R, .252/.301/.301, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 11 BB, 33 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
2004 Dunedin
52 AB, .269/.316/.269, 8 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K
Starting in New Hampshire and continuing in Dunedin, it’s been a step-backwards kind of season so far for Waugh, who has displayed numerous offensive skills in previous stops along his career path. It’s common knowledge that the FSL is tough on hitters, but BB/K rates rarely lie, and the story they’re telling so far in 2004 is not encouraging. I still think he’ll come out of it before too long; if memory serves, he’s a fast finisher.
Low-A Charleston Alley-Cats
Danny Core, RHP, 07/17/81
2004 Charleston
2-4, 3.79, 54 IP, 49 H, 14 BB, 45 K, 4 HR, 20.0% KBF
Things started to slow down for Core in May, and Charleston’s Big Four began to more closely resemble a Big Three (Marcum, James, Mastny). You really need to be at or over one strikeout per inning in the South Atlantic League to get taken seriously, and Core is currently running below that. He’s a step behind his rotation mates right now.
Robinzon Diaz, C, 09/13/83
2004 Charleston
177 AB, 22 R, .271/.306/.328, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 7 BB, 10 K, 2 SB, 2 CS
The walks aren’t great, but he’s striking out hardly at all, and he’s holding his own in terms of batting average; the power is some distance away yet. This is a big two-level jump for Diaz, and he’s still very raw in any number of areas, especially defensively. We’ll track him all season, but I expect this to be a developmental year for him, so don’t look for spectacular offensive numbers.
Mike Galloway, OF, 05/09/81
2004 Charleston
149 AB, 22 R, .255/.335/.409, 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB, 45 K
Last month, when he was sporting a .381 OBP, I said that if Galloway maintained an on-base percentage in the .370 range all season, he’s going to be very interesting. His OBP is currently at .335 and his BB/K rate is 1/3, so right now, he’s not very interesting. If these numbers turn around in June, then you’ll see him back here in a month’s time; if not, not.
Justin James, RHP, 09/13/81
2004 Charleston
4-3, 3.56, 10 G, 10 GS, 55 IP, 48 H, 14 BB, 61 K, 2 HR, 27.1% KBF
James was somewhat less dominant in May than he was in a blistering April; his monthly categories totaled 35 IP, 30 H, 9 BB, 35 K. That’s quite good, of course, but as mentioned previously, 1/1 K/IP rates are basically the price of admission in the Sally. Still, there’s a lot to like here -- that KBF is currently the best on the team -- and if he continues to roll, he’ll continue to be very much worth watching.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 12/14/81
2004 Charleston
6-2, 2.82, 10 G, 10 GS, 60 IP, 51 H, 9 BB, 62 K, 5 HR, 25.2% KBF
This fellow, on the other hand, shows no sign of slowing down at all. Marcum had, I think, one bad start in May, and otherwise was brilliant; his command thus far gives him the edge over James. If there’s anyone slated for a June promotion to Dunedin -- or conceivably, even all the way up to New Hampshire -- this is your man….
Tom Mastny, RHP, 02/04/81
2004 Charleston
2-2, 2.23, 9 G, 9 GS, 48 IP, 40 H, 11 BB, 53 K, 1 HR, 27.0% KBF
…although this guy isn’t far behind. Mastny continues to get batters out, and his numbers are very strong in all categories, though you’d like to see those walks go down a little. Significantly, he’s averaging just a little more than 5 innings per start, while Marcum is coming in at exactly 6. Mastny may well get promoted along with James, but probably no higher than Dunedin. Marcum appears to be in a class by himself right now.
Juan Peralta, SS/2B, 06/24/83
2004 Charleston
155 AB, 20 R, .232/.282/.284, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 10 BB, 27 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
He’s coming around, but very slowly. Making contact was a problem for Peralta last year, but he showed off a very good batting eye, and that’s not in evidence so far. But remember his age; like Diaz, this may be a developmental year whose progress is not easily measured in raw stats.
Brian Reed, RHP, 03/06/81
2004 Charleston
1-0, 0.47, 18 G, 0 GS, 7 Sv, 19 IP, 12 H, 4 BB, 19 K, 0 HR, 26.0% KBF
Yeah, those are pretty good numbers, alright. Reed is doing in Charleston essentially what Bubbie Buzachero is doing in Dunedin; what they further have in common is that they’re a little old to be beating up on A-Ball hitters, Reed especially. Ideally, I’d like to see each of these guys get bumped up a level this month.
Ryan Roberts, 2B, 09/19/80
2004 Charleston
166 AB, 29 R, .301/.443/.542, 7 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 37 BB, 30 K
He paused for breath, then kept right on going, heating up again in the latter part of May. Roberts leads the Sally in OBP and is 9th in slugging, and it seems like he’s ready for the next challenge. I really don’t expect him to finish the year in Charleston; he may not even finish June there. There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Ryan Roberts.
Davis Romero, LHP, 03/30/83
2004 Charleston
1-1, 2.02, 15 G, 3 GS, 1 Sv, 35 IP, 18 H, 7 BB, 39 K, 2 HR, 28.7% KBF
What say we call this a TKO and stop the fight? Romero, a young and small left-hander, is eating up Sally hitters, so much so that a nolo contendre should have been entered by now. His youth may keep him in Charleston, and perhaps they’ll think about stretching him out a little bit towards the end of the year. They won’t push him too hard, but he sure is intriguing.
Felix Romero, RHP, 06/18/80
2004 Charleston
3-2, 3.06, 19 G, 0 GS, 3 Sv, 32 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 48 K, 2 HR, 37.2% KBF
These also are crazy numbers, including the best KBF% to date of any Jays pitcher in the system. Felix is dominating the opposition just as Davis is; the difference, as I’ve stated before, is that Felix is more than two years older and is still in the Sally. I sure would like to see him in New Hampshire by the end of the year.
Marcos Sandoval, RHP, 12/29/80
2004 Charleston
2-1, 5.16, 16 G, 0 GS, 22 IP, 15 H, 17 BB, 22 K, 2 HR, 21.3% KBF
Last month, when his ERA was 2.03, I wrote:
Sandoval’s minor-league career has been pretty unimpressive until this month, when he posted solid numbers and a great BB/K rate. A blip or a turnaround? Tune in next month.
Blip.
David Smith, OF, 01/12/81
2004 Charleston
160 AB, 27 R, .281/.380/.450, 6 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 23 BB, 44 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Other than the strikeouts, there’s nothing here not to like. Smith is showing off power and patience, and those are probably JP Ricciardi's two favourite attributes in a hitter. I don’t have a sense of Smith’s defensive abilities, but if he can play a good centerfield, he’s definitely got the makings of a utility outfield career here.
Christian Snavely, OF, 05/07/82
2004 Charleston
107 AB, 19 R, .215/.346/.346, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 22 BB, 41 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
A rough month for a young man with some high expectations; I think he’s had a few injury issues too. But Snavely maintained a solid walk rate, and if he can get the hits to start falling in again, he’ll probably find more favour. And there’s power lurking somewhere in that bat. He’s just 22, so toss him some more rope.
AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
Russ Adams, SS, Born August 30, 1980
2004 Syracuse
194 AB, 24 R, .278/.363/.402, 19 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 24 BB, 20 K, 1 SB, 2 CS
That’s more like it. After a terrific May that featured a 13-game hitting streak, Adams has his average up in the .280 range where it belongs. He’s maintained solid plate discipline and has raised his slugging percentage about 40 points in a month. His power is still mostly doubles, but that’s all he’ll have for another season or two. Much better news: just one error in May. He’s on a roll and should be in Toronto no later than next April.
Jason Arnold, SP, 05/02/79
2004 Syracuse
1-3, 3.65, 7 G, 7 GS, 37 IP, 40 H, 12 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, 9.3% KBF
His shoulder is hurting, and that could explain a lot. Arnold has evidently lost several mph off his fastball over the past several months, and even the mechanical adjustments this spring didn’t help. There’s no word yet whether he’ll simply rehab or will need surgery; I’d almost prefer the latter if it fixes the problem permanently. It’s at least good to know there’s a reason why this prized pitcher has been struggling so badly.
David Bush, RHP, 11/09/79
2004 Syracuse
5-4, 4.85, 11 G, 11 GS, 65 IP, 74 H, 16 BB, 59 K, 5 HR, 20.7% KBF
He’s been pitching better than those numbers indicate, but that doesn’t mean he’s been pitching tremendously well. Bush’s BB/K rate was almost identical in both April and May; the difference is that he’s giving up a whole lot more hits, including 4 home runs in the last 29 innings. Bush’s calling card is his control, and when you’re around the plate that much, you’ll get knocked silly if your command is off by an inch. Bush is learning the hard way that his margin of error has narrowed considerably at Triple-A; it’s to his credit, however, that he’s kept his composure and is sticking to his game. He’ll come out of this relatively rough patch and he'll prosper.
Shawn Fagan, 1B, 02/03/78
2004 Syracuse
152 AB, 26 R, .263/.378/.362, 6 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 26 BB, 36 K
The Walking Man continues to demonstrate the best batting eye in the organization north of Jayce Tingler, but Fagan isn’t hitting for much power, and lately hasn’t been hitting much at all. Fagan needs to get that OBP over .400 to receive further consideration as a poor man’s Kevin Youkilis.
Bob File, RHP, 01/28/77
2004 Syracuse
1-0, 0.57, 10 G, 0 GS, 4 Sv, 15 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 6 K, 0 HR
It seems like every conversation about Blue Jay pitching prospects inevitably features the question, “Whatever happened to Bob File?” Following shoulder surgery that involved shaving away part of his collarbone, File has returned to active duty. The ERA and the command is good, but those are very few strikeouts for a guy some people envision as a closer. The thing of it is, File didn’t have good strikeout rates even before his injury: in his 2001 rookie debut, he posted an unimpressive 29/38 BB/K rate in 74 IP. Remember Darren Hall, who saved 17 games for Toronto back in 1994 and was never really effective again? Bob File is Darren Hall.
Kevin Frederick, RHP, 11/04/76
2004 Syracuse
0-0, 3.00, 2 G, 0 GS, 3 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 1.27, 18 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 21 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 26 K, 1 HR, 30.2% KBF
He’s filed under Syracuse, even though all but 3 of his innings were recorded at New Hampshire before his recent promotion. But what innings they were down at Double-A: Frederick dominated opposing hitters, though the ERA is a little misleading insofar as he allowed 4 unearned runs against 3 earned runs in those 21 innings. Unfortunately, Frederick is 27, and he’s spent considerable time in the high minors already; he even drank some coffee in The Show with Minnesota. He’s been hammered in his two previous Triple-A trials, so he has to hope that it’s third time lucky.
Gabe Gross, RF, 10/21/79
2004 Syracuse
157 AB, 24 R, .280/.352/.439, 9 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 18 BB, 39 K 1 SB, 3 CS
The bad news is, Gross injured his arm last month and can’t throw, limiting this fine outfielder to DH duty for the rest of the year; minor surgery reportedly remains a possibility in the off-season. The good news is, Gross found his stroke, and how: his OPS jumped 200 points during the month of May, and his BB/K rate was a much more respectable 15/19. He’s probably going to have only 15-homer power for the next couple of seasons, but soon after that, the taters could start coming in bunches. His injury and Alex Rios’ promotion has thrown Gross’s timetable into some doubt. He can’t play the outfield in Toronto, and the DH slot at Skydome is full; accordingly, he’s probably looking at a full year in Syracuse. With nothing to do but work on his hitting against increasingly overmatched Triple-A competition, Gross could have some fun in 2004.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 11/29/81
2004 Syracuse
66 AB, 8 R, .258/.351/.424, 5 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K
He had just started to heat up again when a pitched ball broke his left hand, placing Quiroz on the DL for an indefinite length of time. Assuming it has no lingering effects, the injury isn’t that big a setback. Quiroz was going to need a full season in Syracuse anyway, to refine his defence and work on his approach at the plate; he’s still quite young and could do with the additional seasoning. What were the odds that on June 1, Greg Myers, Kevin Cash and Guillermo Quiroz would all be injured? Weird.
Jorge Sequea, 2B, 10/01/80
2004 Syracuse
107 AB, 14 R, .243/.314/.290, 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 9 BB, 22 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
A step backwards in May for Sequea, and at a bad time too. With injuries striking down Toronto’s starting double-play combination last month, Sequea could have earned a promotion and a chance to start a long and profitable career as a major-league utility infielder. But Sequea slumped, then injured his quad muscle and has missed the last two weeks of action. The Blue Jays subsequently picked up Frank Menechino, and a window of opportunity closed. If or when that window will re-open is something that might keep Sequea up at night.
AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Josh Banks, RHP, 07/18/82
2004 Dunedin
7-1, 1.80, 11 G, 11 GS, 60 IP, 49 H, 8 BB, 60 K, 4 HR, 26.1% KBF
I’m obviously cheating a little, because Banks was just promoted from Dunedin a few days ago. But I very much doubt he’ll see A-Ball again, unless it’s on a (God forbid) rehab assignment somewhere down the line. Banks deserved the call-up, because there was little left for him to do in the Florida State League; that line represents what sheer dominance looks like. I fully expect Banks to be on a tight pitch count for the remainder of the season. After throwing 36 innings in college at age 19 and 34 innings in college at 20, he threw 167 innings between college and Auburn last year, at the age of 21; he won’t turn 22 till July. Now, you can throw a lot of innings without necessarily throwing too many pitches, and Banks has never shown any signs of weakness or weariness to this point. But after what happened to the previous two guys to bear the mantle of Best Pitching Prospect In The Organization, expect the Jays to take every reasonable precaution with this young man, who has "major-leaguer" written all over him.
Gustavo Chacin, LHP, 12/04/80
2004 New Hampshire
4-1, 3.15, 10 G, 10 GS, 54 IP, 49 H, 18 BB, 32 K, 8 HR, 13.7% KBF
Chacin continues to get the job done, and there aren’t too many lefty hurlers in the Jays’ organization who can say that. But the BB/K and K/IP rates are weaker than they should be, and that’s usually a sign that the wheels are close to coming off. Those HRs allowed lead the Fisher Cats, and only Syracuse’s Josue Matos (with 10) has given up more in the entire organization. I don’t think this story will have a very happy ending.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 04/12/79
2004 New Hampshire
1-1, 4.22, 18 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 21 IP, 24 H, 9 BB, 22 K, 1 HR
This time last month, DeJong had pitched only 8 innings, and it was impossible to say anything about that performance. He has more IP under his belt now, so we can say that he’s still looking a lot like last year’s model: a lot of strikeouts, but too many walks and not enough missed bats. He’s in serious danger of being passed by the wave of good pitching rising higher in the organization every day.
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 07/10/79
2004 New Hampshire
187 AB, 32 R, .251/.317/.358, 7 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 17 BB, 30 K, 16 SB, 3 CS
Considering that a month ago his line stood at .143/.211/.200, Godwin is in tremendous shape. A hot May vaulted him back into the prospect ranks, particularly on the basepaths. Did someone issue an organization-wide memo and forget to copy Tyrell? He has three times as many stolen bases as any other prospect in the system. But two-thirds of the Toronto outfield is now set for the next three years, and Gabe Gross figures to complete the troika in 2005, so don’t expect to see Godwin wearing a Toronto uniform outside of spring training. Those stolen-base numbers are gaudy, and if he gets his average above .285, Godwin could become very attractive in trade talks.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 11/19/79
2004 New Hampshire
151 AB, 19 R, .212/.326/.371, 6 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 25 BB, 55 K
This is not going well at all. Griffin got his average back over .200, as he inevitably would, and has added substantial power in the last month. But those strikeouts are completely out of control: he’s whiffing in more than one-third of his at-bats. I haven’t seen him in action, and I don’t know whether he’s swinging and missing a lot trying to make contact, or taking too many pitches in an effort to be patient, or if he’s still hurt (he drew four walks in one game the other day, so perhaps it’s the second possibility). But unless he starts putting the bat on the ball, Griffin will have little chance at Triple-A, let alone the big leagues. Considering his college career and the expectations that surrounded him when the Jays acquired him, Griffin really needs to get it in gear.
Aaron Hill, SS, 03/21/82
2004 New Hampshire
172 AB, 23 R, .250/.354/.331, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 29 BB, 22 K
Much like Russ Adams, whom he’s shadowing, Hill’s rebound from a slow start was inevitable when you looked at the excellent BB/K and BB/AB numbers he was sporting, even when he was batting .210 on April 30. The SLG may not look impressive, but it’s up 100 points in the last month, and it will continue to climb. Remember: Hill has exactly five months of pro ball under his belt, and the first three were spent in A Ball; he’s handing this huge leap remarkably well. His defence is still shaky, though (14 errors already), and even more so than Adams, Hill may be destined for another position.
Ryan Houston, RHP, 09/22/79
2-0, 3.34, 11 G, 2 GS, 32 IP, 29 H, 18 BB, 37 K, 2 HR, 26.6% KBF
Houston has spent the last five years of his life in A-Ball, and the reason for that is primarily his command. Splitting last season between Charleston and Dunedin, Houston struck out 92 batters in 81 innings against only 58 hits; but he also issued 41 walks. However, 2003 was also the first season in which Houston converted a whole lot of base hits to strikeouts, so it’s possible that at 25, he’s figured something out. It’s more of the same so far in Double-A, lots of Ks and lots of BBs -- but he’s holding his own, and sometimes he’s truly dominant. He’s a major longshot at this point, but he deserves to be on the radar screen.
Brandon League, RHP, 03/16/83
2004 New Hampshire
0-2, 3.19, 16 G, 1 GS, 31 IP, 24 H, 18 BB, 23 K, 1 HR, 16.6% KBF
Thanks to the video work of some fellow Bauxites, I got a chance to see League’s stuff and delivery, and all I can say is: wow. Tremendously sharp, biting, powerful fastballs thrown from a ¾ angle can be devastating. Unfortunately, it appears that League himself doesn’t always know where his great pitches are going, and opposing hitters have figured this out too. His walk rate is very poor, and he’s starting to allow more hits than he should as well; his KBF percentage is wildly inconsistent with his K/IP ratio, because he’s facing so many hitters. It’s important to remember how young Brandon is for this league, and that he’s adjusting to a brand new role as a reliever. I think he might struggle somewhat throughout 2004, but if he learns from these challenges and adjusts, he’ll start overwhelming people right when they least expect it.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 03/24/82
2004 New Hamphsire
2-0, 4.06, 6 G, G GS, 31 IP, 24 H, 15 BB, 29 K, 4 HR, 22.3% KBF
Sigh. The good news is that McGowan’s surgery went very well and that he’s already back in Dunedin rehabbing his arm. The better news is that recovery times from TJ operations are getting shorter all the time, and the vast majority of pitchers return with their stuff intact, if not enhanced by the muscle and conditioning provided by the rehab assignments. File him away in your happy place and we’ll revisit him in 2005.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 05/18/79
2004 New Hampshire
2-2, 3.32, 20 G, 0 GS, 10 Sv, 21 IP, 18 H, 8 BB, 29 K, 1 HR, 32.2% KBF
I essentially said last month that Peterson has nothing left to prove at Double-A; he’s spent the last four weeks proving it. Maybe the command isn’t airtight, and maybe he’s had one or two bad innings, but that’s about all there is to question here. Peterson, as mentioned before, is in a quandary: he needs innings, but he’s also overmatching Eastern League hitters. That dilemma has to be resolved, and I think it will be resolved in favour of a promotion. I don’t see any way that Peterson is not in Syracuse by the time we do this again at the end of June.
Cam Reimers, RHP, 09/15/78
2004 New Hampshire
6-2, 3.32, 9 G, 9 GS, 55 IP, 53 H, 12 BB, 26 K, 6 HR, 11.6% KBF
He’s still pitching well, but I still think Reimers has no real future any higher than Double-A. His strikeout rate is terribly low, and offers no assurance that he can dominate the better hitters out there; the KBF concurs. But he’s a workhorse ace starter for a beloved new franchise in a very nice city; there are worse stations in life.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 08/22/79
2004 Hew Hampshire
176 AB, 30 R, .261/.359/.392, 10 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 24 BB, 21 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
He’s leveled off somewhat after a hot early April -- one of the few in the entire Jays’ system, I might add -- but the BB/K and BB/AB numbers are still quite good. I haven’t seen Rich play, nor have I had the benefit of catching the Fisher Cats’ excellent broadcast crew, so I can’t add anything to reports that Rich has become a slick fielder (though I note for the record that he has 10 errors). But I hope he has, since I'm coming to think his bat alone will not be able to carry him to the major leagues.
Francisco Rosario, SP, 09/28/80
2004 New Hamphsire
0-2, 7.30, 4 G, 4 GS, 12 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 8 K, 2 HR
2004 Dunedin
1-1, 4.67, 6 G, 6 GS, 17 IP, 16 H, 11 BB, 16 K, 2 HR, 20.0% KBF
I honestly don’t know what to say here. He had one pretty good start, one brilliant start, and two terrible starts for New Hampshire, the latter one of which he left with some kind of arm problem, which bothered him in Dunedin too. His health has been a subject of a lot of speculation hereabouts, much of it distressed. What does seem clear is that Rosario has not returned from Tommy John surgery 100% healthy and ready to roll; he is still a work in progress physically, and he apparently cannot be put on a regular schedule at this point. Adjust your expectations and suspend any big plans for Rosario till 2005; whatever he provides this year should be considered a bonus at this point.
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 06/13/81
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 1.61, 19 G, 0 GS, 8 Sv, 22 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 25 K, 2 HR, 28.1% KBF
Dunedin’s closer is putting together a fine season, ripping the bats out of opposing hitters’ hands and shutting the door for 8 saves in the team’s first two months. Nonetheless, Bubbie doesn’t usually appear on many Jays’ prospect lists. Certainly, the organization isn’t grooming him for multiple-inning appearances, as it’s doing with more favoured prospects like Jamie Vermilyea and Brandon League. But Buzachero is still young and still learning his craft, and I haven’t seen anything in his career to date to justify leaving him off a prospect list. If the Jays agree, he should be in New Hampshire soon, perhaps no later than mid-season.
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 10/26/80
2004 Dunedin
191 AB, 20 R, .283/.369/.466, 15 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 24 BB, 49 K
Big Vito has cooled down after a hot start, and those strikeouts are mounting, though he’s battled wrist injuries throughout and we may not be seeing a true picture of his abilities yet. He’s maintaining a good eye at the plate, and he’s still showing good power, but he’s not dominating the Florida State League the way he did the NY-Penn. It’s true the FSL drains offensive firepower; but still, Vito is 22nd in BA, 16th in OBP and 12th in SLG amongst FSLers. He’s very good, and he’ll probably get a bit better, but he’s not ripping up the league in a way that suggests future big-league slugger. This is an unfair comparison, but when he was in the Florida State League in 1992, Carlos Delgado posted a .324/.397/.579 line with 30 doubles and 30 HRs -- at 20 years old, playing catcher. I don’t raise this to diminish Vito, who’s doing just fine and will emerge with more power once he hits Double-A; just to adjust expectations.
Carlo Cota, 2B, 09/18/80
2004 Dunedin
190 AB, 37 R, .284/.347/.400, 14 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 18 BB, 44 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Cota’s bat has really started to heat up as the mercury rises in Florida, but he’s not all the way there yet. His power is mostly in the doubles category so far, and he’s barely maintaining the 1/1- BB/AB ratio decreed from on high, while watching his K’s mount. He’s definitely speeding up, but he needs to accelerate the rate at which he’s improving.
Scott Dragicevich, 3B/1B, 06/28/80
2004 Dunedin
158 AB, 26 R, .272/.376/.399, 11 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 25 BB, 41 K
Virtually nothing differentiates Dragicevich’s May from his April, except for a slight power increase. But that consistency should be considered a good thing, especially in the walks department, because he needed to show he could maintain his on-base ability. Dragicevich has started some good work towards a utility infielder position somewhere down the line; Simon Pond looked a little like this at around the same age.
Neomar Flores, RHP, 03/12/82
2004 Dunedin
1-3, 7.24, 11 G, 9 GS, 41 IP, 62 H, 12 BB, 22 K, 7 HR, 11.6% KBF
This is what you call a bad month: 21 IP, 41 H, 7 BB, 6 K, 3 HR. One bad month isn’t enough to make anyone give up on a prospect, but when that prospect has had a tenuous career up to this point already, it does make it harder for him to stay in the organization’s line of sight. And the one thing you don’t want to do as a minor-league baseball player is to make the organization forget about you.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 01/15/82
2004 Dunedin
2-3, 4.95, 10 G, 10 GS, 43 IP, 46 H, 13 BB, 34 K, 4 HR, 17.5% KBF
Isenberg’s May wasn’t quite as bad as Flores’, but he did throw two truly awful starts onto the board, and he rarely dominated in his other action. The drop in his strikeout rate is not a good sign, and needs to be reversed. Isenberg is highly thought of, and he’s supposed to post strong performances in the FSL; he ought to return to doing that over the next couple of months.
Rodney Medina, OF, 10/17/81
88 AB, 7 R, .216/.296/.284, 2 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 BB, 11 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
I called him a sleeper in my pre-season report and I haven’t changed my mind. He lost most of the early season to injuries and has been shaking off the rust since his recent return, but the plate discipline is encouraging in the early going. He’ll heat up over the course of the summer, and I think he’ll end up with a fine season.
Miguel Negron, OF, 08/22/82
2004 Dunedin
111 AB, 14 R, .288/.380/.414, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 13 BB, 23 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
He sure didn’t need to lose two or three weeks to injuries; Negron already missed half of last season and there’s only so much development time available, especially since this is his last year in the organization before 40-man roster decisions need to be made. But he’s definitely holding his own in the average and walks columns, and he’s been hitting the ball very well since he returned from the DL. Hopefully he can continue his production and even pick things up a notch over the course of the summer.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 09/27/81
2004 Dunedin
0-3, 5.74, 5 G, 1 GS, 15 IP, 22 H, 8 BB, 16 K, 0 HR, 3 WP
He’s spent all of May on the DL with whatever injuries drove him there in the first place (we’re not privy to players’ health information), so the best you can say is that Perkins didn’t regress any. I’ve heard no indication that his ailments are terribly serious, so hopefully we’ll see him back on a mound soon.
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 03/05/80
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 3.29, 15 G, 0 GS, 27 IP, 31 H, 11 BB, 19 K, 2 HR, 15.7% KBF
The ERA is about the only good thing on his record; his ratios, especially the BB and K-related ones, are not promising. I had the dubious pleasure of listening in on one D-Jays game where Pleiness entered in relief and threw fuel on the fire in a game the Jays eventually lost by a touchdown and field goal. That’s about a small a sample size as you can get, but I can’t say I was impressed. At his age, at this level, he needs to turn things around in a hurry.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 03/03/81
2004 Dunedin
4-5, 2.83, 11 G, 11 GS, 63 IP, 58 H, 13 BB, 39 K, 1 HR, 15.5% KBF
His command is still good, though not breathtaking; his strikeouts are only okay, and dropping. What’s quite remarkable is that Ramirez has allowed only 1 home run in his 11 starts, and that may be helping him stay afloat despite peripherals that are not very encouraging. I’ve said before that he may prosper better in the bullpen, and I’ll say it again for added effect. The K rate is a big red flag.
Raul Tablado, 3B, 03/03/82
2004 Dunedin
47 AB, 10 R, .404/.451/.787, 6 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 4 BB, 11 K
That’s about as nice a first 50 at-bats as you’re going to see, even if it was spread over two months. Tablado returned from the DL with a vengeance, hitting even better than before he was injured. Of course, this is so small a sample size as to be called a hot streak and little more. But we’ll definitely be checking on him this time next month.
Jayce Tingler, OF, 10/28/80
Dunedin 2004
189 AB, 35 R, .249/.392/.312, 12 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 11 HBP, 35 BB, 13 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
And now he's met his first roadblock. Tingler is still posting tremendous walk numbers and is getting hit more than is healthy for anyone whose job description is not "professional stuntman." But it doesn’t much matter how many walks you get if your average is below .250. He will rebound from this -- he hit .395 his final year of college -- but be aware that the concern about Tingler is that his slight stature means power pitchers could knock the bat right out of his hands. If that ever did come to pass, this is pretty much what his stat line would look like.
Santo Valdez, RHP, 10/07/81
2004 Dunedin
1-0, 6.90, 16 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 30 IP, 39 H, 9 BB, 25 K, 4 HR, 18.3% KBF
Considering that he was shelled for about 8 or 9 runs in one inning of work at the beginning of May, that’s a pretty darn impressive line. Ignore for a moment the ERA and the hits allowed; those categories are still skewed. The BB/K numbers are alright, and if he can turn about 5 walks a month into strikeouts, they’ll be even better. He’s still a fringe prospect, but keep him on the radar.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 02/10/82
2004 Dunedin
3-1, 3.49, 15 G, 3 GS, 38 IP, 40 H, 9 BB, 29 K, 4 HR, 18.1% KBF
His second month at High-A was pretty much exactly the same as his first: a few too many baserunners, a few too few strikeouts. These are not bad numbers by any means, and in his defence, Vermilyea has been slotted into both starting and relief roles while the Dunedin rotation underwent various shuffles. They’re just not the kind of numbers you want to see from a legitimate pitching prospect in the FSL, and they’re entirely removed from the sensational stats he recorded in his rookie debut last summer. If his 2004 season continues in this vein, then Vermilyea may end up as just one more data point in the “Don’t take short-season stats very seriously” argument.
Jason Waugh, OF, 03/12/80
2004 New Hampshire
163 AB, 25 R, .252/.301/.301, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 11 BB, 33 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
2004 Dunedin
52 AB, .269/.316/.269, 8 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K
Starting in New Hampshire and continuing in Dunedin, it’s been a step-backwards kind of season so far for Waugh, who has displayed numerous offensive skills in previous stops along his career path. It’s common knowledge that the FSL is tough on hitters, but BB/K rates rarely lie, and the story they’re telling so far in 2004 is not encouraging. I still think he’ll come out of it before too long; if memory serves, he’s a fast finisher.
Low-A Charleston Alley-Cats
Danny Core, RHP, 07/17/81
2004 Charleston
2-4, 3.79, 54 IP, 49 H, 14 BB, 45 K, 4 HR, 20.0% KBF
Things started to slow down for Core in May, and Charleston’s Big Four began to more closely resemble a Big Three (Marcum, James, Mastny). You really need to be at or over one strikeout per inning in the South Atlantic League to get taken seriously, and Core is currently running below that. He’s a step behind his rotation mates right now.
Robinzon Diaz, C, 09/13/83
2004 Charleston
177 AB, 22 R, .271/.306/.328, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 7 BB, 10 K, 2 SB, 2 CS
The walks aren’t great, but he’s striking out hardly at all, and he’s holding his own in terms of batting average; the power is some distance away yet. This is a big two-level jump for Diaz, and he’s still very raw in any number of areas, especially defensively. We’ll track him all season, but I expect this to be a developmental year for him, so don’t look for spectacular offensive numbers.
Mike Galloway, OF, 05/09/81
2004 Charleston
149 AB, 22 R, .255/.335/.409, 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 15 BB, 45 K
Last month, when he was sporting a .381 OBP, I said that if Galloway maintained an on-base percentage in the .370 range all season, he’s going to be very interesting. His OBP is currently at .335 and his BB/K rate is 1/3, so right now, he’s not very interesting. If these numbers turn around in June, then you’ll see him back here in a month’s time; if not, not.
Justin James, RHP, 09/13/81
2004 Charleston
4-3, 3.56, 10 G, 10 GS, 55 IP, 48 H, 14 BB, 61 K, 2 HR, 27.1% KBF
James was somewhat less dominant in May than he was in a blistering April; his monthly categories totaled 35 IP, 30 H, 9 BB, 35 K. That’s quite good, of course, but as mentioned previously, 1/1 K/IP rates are basically the price of admission in the Sally. Still, there’s a lot to like here -- that KBF is currently the best on the team -- and if he continues to roll, he’ll continue to be very much worth watching.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 12/14/81
2004 Charleston
6-2, 2.82, 10 G, 10 GS, 60 IP, 51 H, 9 BB, 62 K, 5 HR, 25.2% KBF
This fellow, on the other hand, shows no sign of slowing down at all. Marcum had, I think, one bad start in May, and otherwise was brilliant; his command thus far gives him the edge over James. If there’s anyone slated for a June promotion to Dunedin -- or conceivably, even all the way up to New Hampshire -- this is your man….
Tom Mastny, RHP, 02/04/81
2004 Charleston
2-2, 2.23, 9 G, 9 GS, 48 IP, 40 H, 11 BB, 53 K, 1 HR, 27.0% KBF
…although this guy isn’t far behind. Mastny continues to get batters out, and his numbers are very strong in all categories, though you’d like to see those walks go down a little. Significantly, he’s averaging just a little more than 5 innings per start, while Marcum is coming in at exactly 6. Mastny may well get promoted along with James, but probably no higher than Dunedin. Marcum appears to be in a class by himself right now.
Juan Peralta, SS/2B, 06/24/83
2004 Charleston
155 AB, 20 R, .232/.282/.284, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 10 BB, 27 K, 1 SB, 3 CS
He’s coming around, but very slowly. Making contact was a problem for Peralta last year, but he showed off a very good batting eye, and that’s not in evidence so far. But remember his age; like Diaz, this may be a developmental year whose progress is not easily measured in raw stats.
Brian Reed, RHP, 03/06/81
2004 Charleston
1-0, 0.47, 18 G, 0 GS, 7 Sv, 19 IP, 12 H, 4 BB, 19 K, 0 HR, 26.0% KBF
Yeah, those are pretty good numbers, alright. Reed is doing in Charleston essentially what Bubbie Buzachero is doing in Dunedin; what they further have in common is that they’re a little old to be beating up on A-Ball hitters, Reed especially. Ideally, I’d like to see each of these guys get bumped up a level this month.
Ryan Roberts, 2B, 09/19/80
2004 Charleston
166 AB, 29 R, .301/.443/.542, 7 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 37 BB, 30 K
He paused for breath, then kept right on going, heating up again in the latter part of May. Roberts leads the Sally in OBP and is 9th in slugging, and it seems like he’s ready for the next challenge. I really don’t expect him to finish the year in Charleston; he may not even finish June there. There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Ryan Roberts.
Davis Romero, LHP, 03/30/83
2004 Charleston
1-1, 2.02, 15 G, 3 GS, 1 Sv, 35 IP, 18 H, 7 BB, 39 K, 2 HR, 28.7% KBF
What say we call this a TKO and stop the fight? Romero, a young and small left-hander, is eating up Sally hitters, so much so that a nolo contendre should have been entered by now. His youth may keep him in Charleston, and perhaps they’ll think about stretching him out a little bit towards the end of the year. They won’t push him too hard, but he sure is intriguing.
Felix Romero, RHP, 06/18/80
2004 Charleston
3-2, 3.06, 19 G, 0 GS, 3 Sv, 32 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 48 K, 2 HR, 37.2% KBF
These also are crazy numbers, including the best KBF% to date of any Jays pitcher in the system. Felix is dominating the opposition just as Davis is; the difference, as I’ve stated before, is that Felix is more than two years older and is still in the Sally. I sure would like to see him in New Hampshire by the end of the year.
Marcos Sandoval, RHP, 12/29/80
2004 Charleston
2-1, 5.16, 16 G, 0 GS, 22 IP, 15 H, 17 BB, 22 K, 2 HR, 21.3% KBF
Last month, when his ERA was 2.03, I wrote:
Sandoval’s minor-league career has been pretty unimpressive until this month, when he posted solid numbers and a great BB/K rate. A blip or a turnaround? Tune in next month.
Blip.
David Smith, OF, 01/12/81
2004 Charleston
160 AB, 27 R, .281/.380/.450, 6 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 23 BB, 44 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Other than the strikeouts, there’s nothing here not to like. Smith is showing off power and patience, and those are probably JP Ricciardi's two favourite attributes in a hitter. I don’t have a sense of Smith’s defensive abilities, but if he can play a good centerfield, he’s definitely got the makings of a utility outfield career here.
Christian Snavely, OF, 05/07/82
2004 Charleston
107 AB, 19 R, .215/.346/.346, 5 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 22 BB, 41 K, 3 SB, 1 CS
A rough month for a young man with some high expectations; I think he’s had a few injury issues too. But Snavely maintained a solid walk rate, and if he can get the hits to start falling in again, he’ll probably find more favour. And there’s power lurking somewhere in that bat. He’s just 22, so toss him some more rope.
