Reader and regular Thomas Ayers takes a look around the minors and picks out ten Ken Phelps All-Stars, guys who are trapped inthe minors when they belong in the Show. Part 2 will be here later this week; for now, here are the first five. Thanks Thomas!
10 Guys Who Should be in the Major Leagues
by Thomas Ayers
Over the last few years we have seen an increasing number of GMs realise the value of free talent, or at least that’s how it appears to those of us who follow the “Moneyball” teams. While the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers can afford to spend millions to secure the bench player of their choice, teams like the A’s and Jays have to pick and choose which veterans to spend money on, and which bench positions they can fill cheaply.
Both of these teams appreciate veterans to some degree, probably due to a combination of leadership talents and the fact they are a known quantity, as opposed to some prospects who can be a high-risk, high-reward scenario. The Jays spent money on Mike Bordick last year, and Chris Gomez this year to bring a veteran presence to their middle infield. By all accounts Bordick did wonders for the team last year, as evidenced by their repeated attempts to resign him and Hudson and Woodward’s glowing reviews about him. Oakland signed Mark McLemore to play with Marcus Scutaro at second base when Mark Ellis was lost for the season, and they signed Eric Karros to give them a right-handed bat from the bench.
Still, both teams love free or cheap talent that other teams have no use for, or at least that they think they have no use for. The Jays have used the Rule V draft very effectively the last couple of years (Corey Thurman and Aquilino Lopez) and have made several useful waiver claims, including Pete Walker and Mike Nakamura. Where the Twins gave Nakamura the label of a sidearming soft-tosser who was getting lucky, the Jays saw someone with good minor league statistics, who they felt could help their team. With no cost, it was a move that could hardly backfire, and so far Nakamura has pitched well out of the pen. Scutaro was a waiver claim for Oakland, and many readers are familiar with Beane prying Bradford out of Chicago (albeit for Miguel Olivo) and getting Lidle as a throw-in in a 3-way deal with Tampa.
However, there aren’t enough GMs like Beane and JP around, and many players continue to languish in the minor leagues, despite statistics showing they should get a chance at the major leagues, if nothing else. With that, I present a series of articles detailing a list of 10 players who should be playing in the big leagues. (The first five today, the next five later this week). Later I’ll present a list of 5 players that are easily replaceable.
None of these players are going to turn your favourite team into World Series champions. But the difference between a good bench player and a bad bench player can be a couple of wins over the course of the season, which is a lot for a contending team. For example, witness the difference between Ricky Ledee’s 7 win shares last year and Orlando Merced’s 2, which works out to 5 win shares or 1.67 wins.
There are even more extreme examples that demonstrate the variance in the quality of bench players, which becomes even more extreme when a small-budget club considers the price differential between a “proven” bench player and a minor leaguer, and where that extra money could help them out. Plus, these players deserve at least a cup of coffee in the major leagues, and are fun to root for.
The rules for the list are simple. The player must be older than 25 (more or less removing him from prospect status) and cannot have accumulated more than 150 MLB at-bats or 50 MLB innings pitched. (The minor league stats are slightly off, as I can’t find HBP or sacrifice hits prior to 2002.) The list contains several corner outfielders and relief pitchers, but they seemed to be the position that had the most qualified candidates. Also, I viewed many of them as viable options for many teams in the majors. I tried to mix in qualified candidates from other positions, to give diversity to the list.
Without further ado, here are the first five of 10 guys who should be in the big leagues, in reverse order.
2004 minor league stats: 4.26 ERA, 12.2 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 13 K,
Career AAA stats: 3.11 ERA, 75.1 IP, 72 H, 10 HR, 26 BB, 67 K, 8 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 2.58 K/BB
While his brother, who isn’t even a great reliever, wins the World Series last year and then signs a hefty deal with the Mets to become their new closer, Aaron had a very successful year at Tacoma, and that sat on the sidelines during October and the free agent period. Even with Seattle’s revamped bullpen, Looper must have thought he had a good shot at making the team this spring. However, the curse of the second lefty earned Ron Villone a spot, and J.J. Putz beat out Looper for the last righty spot out of the pen.
Aaron’s always been in the shadow of his more famous brother, even from their days in college where Braden was the 3rd overall pick for the St. Louis Cardinals, while his brother followed it up the next year by being selected in the 30th round by Seattle. By virtue of their draft spots alone, Braden was always going to get more of a chance than Aaron and he’s become an effective right-handed reliever who is overrated when used as a closer.
Aaron’s biggest problem is that he was prone to giving up the home run last year. Ten home runs in 75 innings is a very high rate for a reliever, but in his previous years he was fairly stingy with the home runs allowed (4 in 90 innings in AA in 2002), so its tough to get a read at this point as to whether that was an aberration or a sign batters are catching up with his stuff. Regardless, his high strike out rate and good peripherals show a righty that could slot in at the back part of a bullpen. He’s the most dispensable player on this list, as there are a fair number of relievers floating around with similar stats, but he strikes me as one of the ones likeliest to succeed.
2004 minor league stats: 142 AB, 35 H, 4 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 12 BB, .246/.312/.592, .289 GPA
2003 minor league stats (at AA San Antonio): 455 AB, 103 H, 38 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, 92 BB, .288/.305/.541, 318 GPA.
It maybe damning you with faint praise to say you’re a better ballplayer than Willie Bloomquist, but there’s no doubt that said statement is entirely true in this case. Bloomquist has the heart and scrappiness to make him a fan favourite, but for all of his versatility, he plays the great majority of his games at third base. Coincidentally, that’s exactly where Justin Leone plays, and while Leone may not play it particularly well (9 errors in 33 games, 22 at 3B), BP’s defensive metrics have him at ranked at about even. Jolbert Cabrera’s exactly the sort of jack-of-all-trades that is supposed to make players like Bloomquist redundant, and open up the roster spot for a player who can actually hit the ball. However, Seattle hasn’t realized that yet.
Leone spent 4 years in A ball after being drafted out of St. Martin’s College, going from the Northwest League to the Midwest League to the California League. After struggling his first year in the California League with San Bernandino, he had a good campaign the second time around at age 25. He was promoted to the Texas League last year, where he put together a monster campaign and has continued that with a torrid start at AAA Tacoma.
Too old to be a real prospect, Leone also strikes out a lot, which isn’t a good sign. He struck out once every 4 at-bats last year, and is striking out once every 3 at-bats so far at AAA. That is worrisome, and an ability to make contact will hold him back from ever becoming anything more than a bench player. However, he shows all sorts of power in the minors, in both double and home-run form, and he also has good speed. He hits a surprising number of triples for a slugger, and he stole 20 bases last year, as well. Even with his strikeouts, he’s a much better option off the bench for the odd start and for key late inning at-bats than Willie Bloomquist, but this is just one of many things Bill Bavasi doesn’t seem to understand.
2004 minor league stats: 124 AB, 41 H, 6 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 17 BB, .331/.415/.629, .344 GPA
Career AAA stats: 1,314 AB, 306 H, 55 2B, 14 3B, 48 HR, 136 BB, .233/.303/.405, .238 GPA
Cody probably benefits because it’s so easy to draw a direct comparison between him and the player he’d replace. Still, he could be an effective role player, and a decent part of a platoon, if given a chance. Instead, he’s spending his 4th straight year in Fresno, while Neifi Perez continues to cast spells over people that convince them that he’s an everyday player.
Primarily a shortstop when coming up, Ransom was thought of as a reasonably good prospect in some circles, but that line of thinking has faded now. Unfortunately for him it’s faded to an extreme in the other direct, where he’s become, like so many on this list, typecast as an organizational soldier, which blinds people to benefit he may actually provide to them. Ransom has played a lot of 2B the last year or so, and he’s even handled 3B in some minor league games, making him defensively capable of handling an infield reserve role.
He’s not got a great eye, or great power, but possesses enough of each to make him serviceable as a utility infielder. The power spike he’s showing this year is an aberration, but at 28 it’s quite possible he’s having his peak year offensively, and it’d be a shame to put that to waste in AAA. Why teams pay Jose Vizcaino $1.2 million when Ransom is available at the league minimum salary is beyond me.
2004 minor league stats: 5.23 ERA, 20.2 IP, 17 H, 1 HR, 11 BB, 16 K,
Career AAA stats: 4.55 ERA, 81.1 IP, 92 H, 6 HR, 17 BB, 82 K, 9.10 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 4.82 K/BB
I don’t know what Ricky Bottalico possesses that Heath Bell does not. In a year where the Mets should be determining what other useful players they have to build around besides David Wright, Scott Kazmir and Jose Reyes, they instead waste bullpen spots on Bottalico and James Baldwin, while Heath Bell spends his third year in Norfolk.
Bell’s ERAs aren’t particularly good and he gives up a lot of hits, but the rest of his numbers suggest he should find success at the big league level. He doesn’t allow many homers, he strikes out over a batter an inning and he walks less than two per nine. Those are very good peripherals, showing he has excellent control, despite his bout of wildness to begin this year.
There isn’t a lot to add here other than that he looks like a good bet for reasonable success whenever someone gives him a chance. The only reason he isn’t rated a bit higher is he’s not performed at this level consistently, like some others have. The only other two players named Heath in major league history have been forgettable relievers as well, let’s add a third to the list. He deserves a chance to stake his claim to the best “Heath” in MLB history (Heathcliff’s don’t count).
2004 minor league stats: 31 AB, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, .161/.188/.258, .150 GPA
Career AAA stats: 1,423 AB, 459 H, 110 2B, 12 3B, 40 HR, 130 BB, .323/.381/.501, .297 GPA
I’m not sure what’s ailing Barnes this year, but it appears he’s been injured for nearly the entire season. It is terrible luck for a player, who prior to this season sported very impressive numbers at AAA, to have a dreadful year when he signed with a club that would seemingly appreciate his talent and give him a roster spot. Given Juan Encarnacion’s dreadful start, Robin Ventura’s downward slope and the black hole at middle infield, if Barnes was doing what he normally did, he’d be wearing Dodger blue right now, and racking up at-bats as a sometimes starter and frequent pinch-hitter. In other words, he’d be doing exactly what Jason Grabowski, a player in similar circumstances prior to this season, is doing.
Interestingly, Barnes used to be part of the Twins original glut of outfielders. He hit .365/.437/.565 in 441 at-bats for Salt Lake at AAA, and .351/.415/.459 in 37 at-bats for Minnesota, in 2000. Most clubs would consider a 24-year-old with those numbers to be a promising prospect, and you’d expect to see him on their bench the next year. Instead, Barnes spent most of the next year at AAA Edmonton as well, as Quinton McCracken and Dustan Mohr got 109 at-bats with the Twins. Barnes came up for a 21 at-bats, amassing one hit and one walk. His two monster years at AAA weren’t enough to save him, and he was placed on waivers where Colorado claimed him.
He has since had two more good years at AAA, and not even sniffed the big leagues. Someday someone will write a good essay about the Twins of the early 2000’s, their great outfield prospects and their inability to realize their middle infield is terrible. He ranks lower, compared to some other similar players on the list, due to limitations defensively.
Thanks Thomas! The rest of this series wuill be published here soon. -Craig
10 Guys Who Should be in the Major Leagues
by Thomas Ayers
Over the last few years we have seen an increasing number of GMs realise the value of free talent, or at least that’s how it appears to those of us who follow the “Moneyball” teams. While the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers can afford to spend millions to secure the bench player of their choice, teams like the A’s and Jays have to pick and choose which veterans to spend money on, and which bench positions they can fill cheaply.
Both of these teams appreciate veterans to some degree, probably due to a combination of leadership talents and the fact they are a known quantity, as opposed to some prospects who can be a high-risk, high-reward scenario. The Jays spent money on Mike Bordick last year, and Chris Gomez this year to bring a veteran presence to their middle infield. By all accounts Bordick did wonders for the team last year, as evidenced by their repeated attempts to resign him and Hudson and Woodward’s glowing reviews about him. Oakland signed Mark McLemore to play with Marcus Scutaro at second base when Mark Ellis was lost for the season, and they signed Eric Karros to give them a right-handed bat from the bench.
Still, both teams love free or cheap talent that other teams have no use for, or at least that they think they have no use for. The Jays have used the Rule V draft very effectively the last couple of years (Corey Thurman and Aquilino Lopez) and have made several useful waiver claims, including Pete Walker and Mike Nakamura. Where the Twins gave Nakamura the label of a sidearming soft-tosser who was getting lucky, the Jays saw someone with good minor league statistics, who they felt could help their team. With no cost, it was a move that could hardly backfire, and so far Nakamura has pitched well out of the pen. Scutaro was a waiver claim for Oakland, and many readers are familiar with Beane prying Bradford out of Chicago (albeit for Miguel Olivo) and getting Lidle as a throw-in in a 3-way deal with Tampa.
However, there aren’t enough GMs like Beane and JP around, and many players continue to languish in the minor leagues, despite statistics showing they should get a chance at the major leagues, if nothing else. With that, I present a series of articles detailing a list of 10 players who should be playing in the big leagues. (The first five today, the next five later this week). Later I’ll present a list of 5 players that are easily replaceable.
None of these players are going to turn your favourite team into World Series champions. But the difference between a good bench player and a bad bench player can be a couple of wins over the course of the season, which is a lot for a contending team. For example, witness the difference between Ricky Ledee’s 7 win shares last year and Orlando Merced’s 2, which works out to 5 win shares or 1.67 wins.
There are even more extreme examples that demonstrate the variance in the quality of bench players, which becomes even more extreme when a small-budget club considers the price differential between a “proven” bench player and a minor leaguer, and where that extra money could help them out. Plus, these players deserve at least a cup of coffee in the major leagues, and are fun to root for.
The rules for the list are simple. The player must be older than 25 (more or less removing him from prospect status) and cannot have accumulated more than 150 MLB at-bats or 50 MLB innings pitched. (The minor league stats are slightly off, as I can’t find HBP or sacrifice hits prior to 2002.) The list contains several corner outfielders and relief pitchers, but they seemed to be the position that had the most qualified candidates. Also, I viewed many of them as viable options for many teams in the majors. I tried to mix in qualified candidates from other positions, to give diversity to the list.
Without further ado, here are the first five of 10 guys who should be in the big leagues, in reverse order.
10. Aaron Looper, RP , Tacoma Rainiers, AAA (Seattle), 27
2004 minor league stats: 4.26 ERA, 12.2 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 13 K,
Career AAA stats: 3.11 ERA, 75.1 IP, 72 H, 10 HR, 26 BB, 67 K, 8 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 2.58 K/BB
While his brother, who isn’t even a great reliever, wins the World Series last year and then signs a hefty deal with the Mets to become their new closer, Aaron had a very successful year at Tacoma, and that sat on the sidelines during October and the free agent period. Even with Seattle’s revamped bullpen, Looper must have thought he had a good shot at making the team this spring. However, the curse of the second lefty earned Ron Villone a spot, and J.J. Putz beat out Looper for the last righty spot out of the pen.
Aaron’s always been in the shadow of his more famous brother, even from their days in college where Braden was the 3rd overall pick for the St. Louis Cardinals, while his brother followed it up the next year by being selected in the 30th round by Seattle. By virtue of their draft spots alone, Braden was always going to get more of a chance than Aaron and he’s become an effective right-handed reliever who is overrated when used as a closer.
Aaron’s biggest problem is that he was prone to giving up the home run last year. Ten home runs in 75 innings is a very high rate for a reliever, but in his previous years he was fairly stingy with the home runs allowed (4 in 90 innings in AA in 2002), so its tough to get a read at this point as to whether that was an aberration or a sign batters are catching up with his stuff. Regardless, his high strike out rate and good peripherals show a righty that could slot in at the back part of a bullpen. He’s the most dispensable player on this list, as there are a fair number of relievers floating around with similar stats, but he strikes me as one of the ones likeliest to succeed.
9. Justin Leone, 3B, Tacoma Rainiers, AAA (Seattle), 27
2004 minor league stats: 142 AB, 35 H, 4 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 12 BB, .246/.312/.592, .289 GPA
2003 minor league stats (at AA San Antonio): 455 AB, 103 H, 38 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, 92 BB, .288/.305/.541, 318 GPA.
It maybe damning you with faint praise to say you’re a better ballplayer than Willie Bloomquist, but there’s no doubt that said statement is entirely true in this case. Bloomquist has the heart and scrappiness to make him a fan favourite, but for all of his versatility, he plays the great majority of his games at third base. Coincidentally, that’s exactly where Justin Leone plays, and while Leone may not play it particularly well (9 errors in 33 games, 22 at 3B), BP’s defensive metrics have him at ranked at about even. Jolbert Cabrera’s exactly the sort of jack-of-all-trades that is supposed to make players like Bloomquist redundant, and open up the roster spot for a player who can actually hit the ball. However, Seattle hasn’t realized that yet.
Leone spent 4 years in A ball after being drafted out of St. Martin’s College, going from the Northwest League to the Midwest League to the California League. After struggling his first year in the California League with San Bernandino, he had a good campaign the second time around at age 25. He was promoted to the Texas League last year, where he put together a monster campaign and has continued that with a torrid start at AAA Tacoma.
Too old to be a real prospect, Leone also strikes out a lot, which isn’t a good sign. He struck out once every 4 at-bats last year, and is striking out once every 3 at-bats so far at AAA. That is worrisome, and an ability to make contact will hold him back from ever becoming anything more than a bench player. However, he shows all sorts of power in the minors, in both double and home-run form, and he also has good speed. He hits a surprising number of triples for a slugger, and he stole 20 bases last year, as well. Even with his strikeouts, he’s a much better option off the bench for the odd start and for key late inning at-bats than Willie Bloomquist, but this is just one of many things Bill Bavasi doesn’t seem to understand.
8. Cody Ransom, IF, Fresno Grizzilies, AAA (San Francisco), 28
2004 minor league stats: 124 AB, 41 H, 6 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 17 BB, .331/.415/.629, .344 GPA
Career AAA stats: 1,314 AB, 306 H, 55 2B, 14 3B, 48 HR, 136 BB, .233/.303/.405, .238 GPA
Cody probably benefits because it’s so easy to draw a direct comparison between him and the player he’d replace. Still, he could be an effective role player, and a decent part of a platoon, if given a chance. Instead, he’s spending his 4th straight year in Fresno, while Neifi Perez continues to cast spells over people that convince them that he’s an everyday player.
Primarily a shortstop when coming up, Ransom was thought of as a reasonably good prospect in some circles, but that line of thinking has faded now. Unfortunately for him it’s faded to an extreme in the other direct, where he’s become, like so many on this list, typecast as an organizational soldier, which blinds people to benefit he may actually provide to them. Ransom has played a lot of 2B the last year or so, and he’s even handled 3B in some minor league games, making him defensively capable of handling an infield reserve role.
He’s not got a great eye, or great power, but possesses enough of each to make him serviceable as a utility infielder. The power spike he’s showing this year is an aberration, but at 28 it’s quite possible he’s having his peak year offensively, and it’d be a shame to put that to waste in AAA. Why teams pay Jose Vizcaino $1.2 million when Ransom is available at the league minimum salary is beyond me.
7. Heath Bell, RP, Norfolk Tides, AAA (New York Mets), 26
2004 minor league stats: 5.23 ERA, 20.2 IP, 17 H, 1 HR, 11 BB, 16 K,
Career AAA stats: 4.55 ERA, 81.1 IP, 92 H, 6 HR, 17 BB, 82 K, 9.10 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 4.82 K/BB
I don’t know what Ricky Bottalico possesses that Heath Bell does not. In a year where the Mets should be determining what other useful players they have to build around besides David Wright, Scott Kazmir and Jose Reyes, they instead waste bullpen spots on Bottalico and James Baldwin, while Heath Bell spends his third year in Norfolk.
Bell’s ERAs aren’t particularly good and he gives up a lot of hits, but the rest of his numbers suggest he should find success at the big league level. He doesn’t allow many homers, he strikes out over a batter an inning and he walks less than two per nine. Those are very good peripherals, showing he has excellent control, despite his bout of wildness to begin this year.
There isn’t a lot to add here other than that he looks like a good bet for reasonable success whenever someone gives him a chance. The only reason he isn’t rated a bit higher is he’s not performed at this level consistently, like some others have. The only other two players named Heath in major league history have been forgettable relievers as well, let’s add a third to the list. He deserves a chance to stake his claim to the best “Heath” in MLB history (Heathcliff’s don’t count).
6. John Barnes, OF, Las Vegas 51s, AAA (Los Angeles), 28
2004 minor league stats: 31 AB, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, .161/.188/.258, .150 GPA
Career AAA stats: 1,423 AB, 459 H, 110 2B, 12 3B, 40 HR, 130 BB, .323/.381/.501, .297 GPA
I’m not sure what’s ailing Barnes this year, but it appears he’s been injured for nearly the entire season. It is terrible luck for a player, who prior to this season sported very impressive numbers at AAA, to have a dreadful year when he signed with a club that would seemingly appreciate his talent and give him a roster spot. Given Juan Encarnacion’s dreadful start, Robin Ventura’s downward slope and the black hole at middle infield, if Barnes was doing what he normally did, he’d be wearing Dodger blue right now, and racking up at-bats as a sometimes starter and frequent pinch-hitter. In other words, he’d be doing exactly what Jason Grabowski, a player in similar circumstances prior to this season, is doing.
Interestingly, Barnes used to be part of the Twins original glut of outfielders. He hit .365/.437/.565 in 441 at-bats for Salt Lake at AAA, and .351/.415/.459 in 37 at-bats for Minnesota, in 2000. Most clubs would consider a 24-year-old with those numbers to be a promising prospect, and you’d expect to see him on their bench the next year. Instead, Barnes spent most of the next year at AAA Edmonton as well, as Quinton McCracken and Dustan Mohr got 109 at-bats with the Twins. Barnes came up for a 21 at-bats, amassing one hit and one walk. His two monster years at AAA weren’t enough to save him, and he was placed on waivers where Colorado claimed him.
He has since had two more good years at AAA, and not even sniffed the big leagues. Someday someone will write a good essay about the Twins of the early 2000’s, their great outfield prospects and their inability to realize their middle infield is terrible. He ranks lower, compared to some other similar players on the list, due to limitations defensively.
Thanks Thomas! The rest of this series wuill be published here soon. -Craig
