If momentum means anything in baseball (and there's little statistical evidence that it does), then the Blue Jays should be heavy favourites today against the Texas Rangers. After a strong start, the Rangers are skidding badly, while the Blue Jays, who looked hopeless a couple of weeks ago, are surging and looking for their 6th straight win. It'll be hard-throwing and often erratic Justin Miller today versus crafty lefthander (are there any other kinds?) Kenny Rogers. The Jays likely will face the next 15 days without Carlos Delgado, who seems headed for the DL -- that would make 6 regulars on the injury list, if you're counting. But the Jays need look only at the recently departed Anaheim Angels to find a squad that prospers despite numerous injuries. Expect to see a lot of Simon Pond over the next two weeks -- but today, the Dave Berg Fan Club will see their man playing first and batting ninth.
With Delgado Heading To The DL, Who Will Get The Call Up? Marvin Benard? Shawn Fagen? Maybe Even A Red Hot Russ Adams?
Is there a blackout restriction on this game because I cant log into to watch it on mlb.tv - anyone else having this problem?
Today's Lineups
Tex
SS M. Young
3B Blalock
2B Soriano
DH Fullmer
1B Teixeira
RF Dellucci
LF E. Young
CF Nix
C Barajas
Tor
LF Johnson
2B Menechino
CF Wells
DH Phelps
C Estalella
RF Rios
SS Gomez
3B Hinske
1b Berg
Tex
SS M. Young
3B Blalock
2B Soriano
DH Fullmer
1B Teixeira
RF Dellucci
LF E. Young
CF Nix
C Barajas
Tor
LF Johnson
2B Menechino
CF Wells
DH Phelps
C Estalella
RF Rios
SS Gomez
3B Hinske
1b Berg
Why isnt Phelps at first base? Wouldnt it make sense to have Josh get in the field while Delgado is hurt?
LF Johnson
2B Menechino
CF Wells
DH Phelps
C Estalella
RF Rios
SS Gomez
3B Hinske
1b Berg
Bah, Tosca's got his lefty lineup going today. I don't recall hearing anything about Pond having bad platoon splits. He should really be in there against Rogers today.
Bench very short:
Pond
Clark
Zaun
Man, why the heck are we carrying 12 pitchers? I wonder if any of them can hit.
And I think Nakamura will go on waivers to make room for Benard. Russ Adams is deserving of a callup, but he does not need to be added to the 40-man roster until the end of the year.
Miller is running a lot of deep counts today. But the ump seems to have a pretty tight zone.
Has anyone heard when Cash is likely to come off the DL, after the fifteen days have expired or later?
ok slightly technical question - i have recently added a wireless router to my setup where previously i had ICS set up between my two Pcs, now the problem i have is that mlb.tv is trying to authenticate me with my address each time i connect to mlb.tv. When i do type in my info it says it couldn't authorise me. it says the cc # is right though. Ideas?
Chatham native Fergie Jenkins is visiting the Ranger broadcast booth today. Mentioned that he got some attention as a 16-year-old for his hockey and hoops skills before he developed into a baseball player.
1st and 3rd w/ nobody out, but the Jays blow a golden opportunity. Menichino gets picked off 1st, VW swings at a ball 2 feet outside and high, and Estalella grounds softly to 2nd. Inning over.
Looks like a decent sized crowd today, I guess that explains why we are playing like a minor league team.
Looks like a decent sized crowd today, I guess that explains why we are playing like a minor league team.
Lucas, Fergie also spent a year as a Harlem Globetrotter.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/help/faq_technical.jsp#q14
ok slightly technical question - i have recently added a wireless router to my setup where previously i had ICS set up between my two Pcs, now the problem i have is that mlb.tv is trying to authenticate me with my address each time i connect to mlb.tv. When i do type in my info it says it couldn't authorise me. it says the cc # is right though. Ideas?
Maybe a media player config issue? COMN.
jc
ok slightly technical question - i have recently added a wireless router to my setup where previously i had ICS set up between my two Pcs, now the problem i have is that mlb.tv is trying to authenticate me with my address each time i connect to mlb.tv. When i do type in my info it says it couldn't authorise me. it says the cc # is right though. Ideas?
Maybe a media player config issue? COMN.
jc
Lucas, Fergie also spent a year as a Harlem Globetrotter.
Wow, didn't know that. Makes a great trivia question.
All behold the greatness that is Rod Barajas!
Wow, didn't know that. Makes a great trivia question.
All behold the greatness that is Rod Barajas!
Hey Alex, have you sorted it yet ? Im watching on MLB.com but initially the page was saying that there were no games scheduled today.
What seemed to work was to open the 'gameday' for the Jays game and then to click the MLB.TV icon near the centre at the top. this reopened the web page shoinw games for today but this time with the games listed correctly..
Mind you, you're not missing much, Miller pitching well but the usual Jays failure to execute with runners in scoring positions and less than 2 outs...
Looks like Roger's and Miller are both gonna be gone by the end of the 6th though (both around 80 pitches through 4)
Also Rios misplays another ball in the outfield, I guess its early nerves, trying to do too much.
2-0 Texas 2 down top 5th
What seemed to work was to open the 'gameday' for the Jays game and then to click the MLB.TV icon near the centre at the top. this reopened the web page shoinw games for today but this time with the games listed correctly..
Mind you, you're not missing much, Miller pitching well but the usual Jays failure to execute with runners in scoring positions and less than 2 outs...
Looks like Roger's and Miller are both gonna be gone by the end of the 6th though (both around 80 pitches through 4)
Also Rios misplays another ball in the outfield, I guess its early nerves, trying to do too much.
2-0 Texas 2 down top 5th
This is fairly amazing-7 walks from Rogers and the Jays still have 0 runs. Bases loaded only 1 out though-big AB for Estalella.
Still not got it sorted but i am listening to it on the Fan 590 and watching it on gameday.
I mentioned earlier the deep counts Miller keeps finding himself in. So far though he he hasn't given up a walk. On the other hand Rogers has given up 7 walks. Maybe Miller has pin point control, he can get it over the plate whenever he wants and paint like Olney. He just isn't getting the calls from this lousy ump.
Well, the amazement continues-7 walks and 4 hits through 5 and no runs for Rogers as Estalella not surprisngly hits into a 5-4-3 DP with the sacs loaded.
Ok, Im now officialy irritated. 4 hits and 7 (SEVEN !) walks through 5 innings and still no runs.
Maybe the luck we carried over the last week has decided to take the day off...
Ah jeez, HR, 3 zip Texas... ho hum.
Maybe the luck we carried over the last week has decided to take the day off...
Ah jeez, HR, 3 zip Texas... ho hum.
Well, things are back to their old April self. First pitch after the Jays blowing their opportunity is a HR for the Rangers.
Any official word on Delgado, all I have read is he is day to day.
The Fan mentions the drum and the Hentgen for Closer sign...
One of them says that they agreed with the Hentgen for CLoser sentiments ;-) when Adams was "The Guy".
One of them says that they agreed with the Hentgen for CLoser sentiments ;-) when Adams was "The Guy".
I can't believe that the Gambler is having this kind of luck (as far as his ERA is concerned) while he opposes me in a very tight BBFL Barfield match-up with 1-Hit Wonders (to make it worse, I started Tattoo - the field is open to Fantasy Island jokes).
Yee-hoo! I love it when Soriano plays poorly in the field (against the Jays anyway). That's a good start. Now the Jays gotta knock in the runners that the Gambler is responsible for ;-) ...
That pitch wasn't even close that Vernon struck out on. Now 16 baserunners through 6 and 1 run.
Success starts with strength up the middle... apparently that also works for lack of strength and lack of success...Soriano and Young can swing a hot bat but there defensive miscues cost the Rangers a run here. Unfortunately, it was only one run... bad for the Blue Jays *and* the Capers ;-)
Arrrgggggg .
Wells swings and misses ball 4... with the bases loaded... just when it looked like we were getting back into the game...
3-1 End 6
Wells swings and misses ball 4... with the bases loaded... just when it looked like we were getting back into the game...
3-1 End 6
It's about time they got Barajas out (he also plays for 1-Tool Wonders ;-) ). Actually, Eric Young, Fullmer, Miller, The Gambler, and Barajas all play in our matchup. Heavy fantasy content in this game for us.
Ouch. Wells.
Caught chasing strike three twice already today.
Caught chasing strike three twice already today.
Any thoughts on Rios' defensive struggles? Could a move from center to right mess a guy up like that, or the change in ballparks? Or, do you think, it's just jitters?
http://www.chancetolive.net
Lopez looked pretty good against the two batter he faced. Getting a one-pitch ground-out (against Barajas, granted) then striking out Michael Young on five pitches.
Lopez looked pretty good against the two batter he faced. Getting a one-pitch ground-out (against Barajas, granted) then striking out Michael Young on five pitches.
http://www.chancetolive.net
Also, as for Rios: The angles are a little different in a corner spot versus CF, but I'd say it's more jitters than anything else.
Also, as for Rios: The angles are a little different in a corner spot versus CF, but I'd say it's more jitters than anything else.
Runners on the corners as *Bobby Estalella* went first to third on a base hit.
God do I love "In score, run scoring play" on Gameday! Go Hinske!
http://www.chancetolive.net
YESSS!!! An RBI single for Eric Hinske. And now... stepping to the plate... Dave Berg.
YESSS!!! An RBI single for Eric Hinske. And now... stepping to the plate... Dave Berg.
http://www.chancetolive.net
Damn. At least we have the top of the order up to start the eighth. *Shrugs*
Damn. At least we have the top of the order up to start the eighth. *Shrugs*
http://www.chancetolive.net
Walking Alfonso Soriano to start off an inning is a pretty big accomplishment.
Walking Alfonso Soriano to start off an inning is a pretty big accomplishment.
So is it ES-TA-LAY-A, ES-TA-LAYLA, ESTALOU-LA, or What????
DeLos doing is Franciso imitation from yesterday? WP mania
http://www.chancetolive.net
Yeah, DLS' control looks really shakey.
Yeah, DLS' control looks really shakey.
Don't know what it is this year, but last year here in CO, they pronounced it esta Lay la
FYI - Curt Schilling just had a perfect game broken up by Randy Winn with two out in the 6th.
And VDLS just made Fullmer look like an idiot with that inside breaker! Get it done, Jays ...
And VDLS just made Fullmer look like an idiot with that inside breaker! Get it done, Jays ...
Just mark me curious, I asked when i got in and got no answer, but i have scoured the net, and find nothing other than Delgado being day to day, is there any kind of other news?
All in the same comment ya tell em that one of my guys (Fullmer) looks like an idiot and one of 1-Tool Wonders' players got a hit. Consarnit!
http://www.chancetolive.net
Walking a fairly cold Mark Teixera to get to a red-hot David Delucci is certainly an interesting strategy.
Walking a fairly cold Mark Teixera to get to a red-hot David Delucci is certainly an interesting strategy.
The general opinion seems to be that Carlos will end up on the 15 day DL...
http://www,chancetolive.net
That strategy almost paid-off though. They did get a ground ball.
That strategy almost paid-off though. They did get a ground ball.
It figures that after all the Jays walks that didn't score, the first Ranger to walk all day does.
yeah i get that its the general opinion, and apparently they are giving it a looksie over the next day or so, but seems to me, if it were overly serious, they would have made the move by now.
Dr. Z, chalk it up to 2 wild pitches more than simply the walk (a 3 base free pass), but I hear your frustration loud and clear. DLS was all over the place today and I am really surprised Tosca kept him in there as long as he did, though the 1 run wasn't catastrophic it sure looks tough to overcome the way our bats have been unable to capitalize on their chances thus far. But 6 more outs, it ain't over yet.
The Rangers are asking Cordero to get a 2 inning save here. He's been pretty good so far this year (15 for 15 in saves), so perhaps the Jays can bust that streak.
They cna always put him on the DL retroactively, names not Ryan. It makles sense to me, then, that they'd take their chances for a few days that it won't be that serious.
There have been so many this year, but so far with the men left on base and the total inability to get runners home from 3rd with less than 2 out this is the most frustrating game of the year for me.
granted nothing hurt by waiting, i just wondered what i was missing, seeing everyone talk about the DL.....now that they dont have 3 guys hurt on the bench like they did last week there is less urgency
Now would be a great time for Vernon to wake up and go yard.
http://www.chancetolive.net
And another great at-bat for Frank Menechino!
And another great at-bat for Frank Menechino!
Scratch that, now would be a great time for Phelps to wake up and go yard.
http://www.chancetolive.net
And a crappy at-bat for Josh Phelps!
And a crappy at-bat for Josh Phelps!
Argh... 2 inning save looks very plausible for Cordero. 3 straight fastballs past Joshy...
Phelps wasn't real close to any of those fastballs. All looked very hittable-96 mph, but still fairly straight and down the middle.
Carlos chipped a fingernail. He's going on the 60 day DL, cause he breaks out crying while running to third base. Also, he has trouble sliding with his cell phone in his back pocket, so he's hoping that rogers' suppliers can improve their flip phone technology. Otherwise, he may go play in japan next year.
There are more eloquent ways to make an argument than dripping sarcasm Bryan501, though you are entitled to your opinion of the best homegrown Blue Jay batter of all time, contrary as they may be to mine. For the record, those type of comments are generally not appreciated here, let's be civil.
Down to our last 2 outs... a hope and a prayer is all we've got left this afternoon!
Down to our last 2 outs... a hope and a prayer is all we've got left this afternoon!
http://www.chancetolive.net
What a frustrating game. I feel as if we outplayed them and still lost by two. Bad luck and a lack of timely hitting just killed our boys today. I'm at the Gerstein Library at U of T right now and I just finished my work so I think I'm gonna head home now. Bye, guys. I think I'm going to start posting more often here as I'm a fairly frequent reader.
What a frustrating game. I feel as if we outplayed them and still lost by two. Bad luck and a lack of timely hitting just killed our boys today. I'm at the Gerstein Library at U of T right now and I just finished my work so I think I'm gonna head home now. Bye, guys. I think I'm going to start posting more often here as I'm a fairly frequent reader.
Disappointing end to a great homestand. Opportunities were there, just not taken advantage of. It pains me to see Rogers get a win out of that garbage that he called an outing. Eh, anyway, go get 'em out west boys.
Oh well.. ya can't win 'em all.
I really hope Rios turns it around in the next week. I was looking forward to people telling me that I was wrong.
I really hope Rios turns it around in the next week. I was looking forward to people telling me that I was wrong.
Nice to have you Doc, enjoy the rest of your Sunday. No better way to watch a game you can't be at live than on here aided by a TV/Radio/Gamecast. The more people that post during a game, the more enjoyable it is.
Also, he has trouble sliding with his cell phone in his back pocket
He didnt seem to have any trouble sliding yesterday when he broke up the double play.
He didnt seem to have any trouble sliding yesterday when he broke up the double play.
Well I guess the keys to the loss were
A:that horrendous RISP stat which reared its ugly head around again today in the midst of the 5-gm streak...
B:getting out played defensively... two 'WP's' from DLS (one of which Estalella has to be held accountable), a 'double' that Rios really should've caught and I believe I saw a ball hit at Berg that I'd think Delgado might've gotten... If I'm not mistaken, these plays accounted for two of the runs and ultimately the game...
C:a veritable 'power outtage'... 9 hits to accompany those 9 walks.. but ALL singles... And that can be chalked up to B some pitching var's and luck I suppose...
frustrating loss... :(
A:that horrendous RISP stat which reared its ugly head around again today in the midst of the 5-gm streak...
B:getting out played defensively... two 'WP's' from DLS (one of which Estalella has to be held accountable), a 'double' that Rios really should've caught and I believe I saw a ball hit at Berg that I'd think Delgado might've gotten... If I'm not mistaken, these plays accounted for two of the runs and ultimately the game...
C:a veritable 'power outtage'... 9 hits to accompany those 9 walks.. but ALL singles... And that can be chalked up to B some pitching var's and luck I suppose...
frustrating loss... :(
The K's put up by Wells today were *incredibly* frustrating. Not only the timing but the helpless nature of his swings. On the first one he had seen NINE pitches and on the 10th decides to take a swipe at the pigeons. Although Vernon had some pretty pathetic swings in his second AB where he couldn't even keep the back foot planted, his fourth AB (second strike out) was full of house league swings (head up, no patience, no balance). Disappointing to say the least.
Rios made some questionable defensive plays but this game falls pretty hard on Vernon's inability to get the ball out of the infield (I know other Jays had a chance but with Delgado out of the line-up, Wells is the closest thing to an offensive leader we've got).
One thing I noticed when the Jays had a runner on third and down 1-0 was Texas playing its infield in. I didn't understand that at all. They had a 1-run lead, 1 out in the third (I think) inning and an offense that's as good as any (granted they've struggled as of late). Wells was up at the time, so I'm questioning this on two fronts. First, with one out and the lead early in the game, who gives a damn about that run, as long as you get out number two? Second, it's the #3 hitter who, on most days, is known to pull hard shots through the hole. Alas, this makes no difference but it did surprise me.
Lastly, and I probably should have led off the post with this, the Jays' have a disgustingly slow medical crew. I was seated in aisle 123 (behind the plate) at the beginning of the game and just far back enough so a foul straight back would get over the screen and potentially nail me dead on. In the second, after a few balls had come awfully close to peoples' heads a young girl was unfortunate enough to take a ball in the cheek bone. Though she was lucky in so far as it had bounced off one man's hand and a seat before making contact with her face, it still drew blood and sent her into tears. Immediately the ushers came down to see if everyone was okay and, noticing her in tears, went quickly for medical services. It took approximately 8-10 minutes for the Dome's EMS crew to find her, all the while ushers were standing there unsure of what to do. I'm not about to call for mesh that goes higher but SkyDome has to understand that people in those particular seats are at higher risk than most. As such, stationing medical personelle in aisles 122-124 would be a logical step to take. Further, for everyone's safety, a seminar training ushers in applicable first-aid would be in the Blue Jays' best interests.
Rios made some questionable defensive plays but this game falls pretty hard on Vernon's inability to get the ball out of the infield (I know other Jays had a chance but with Delgado out of the line-up, Wells is the closest thing to an offensive leader we've got).
One thing I noticed when the Jays had a runner on third and down 1-0 was Texas playing its infield in. I didn't understand that at all. They had a 1-run lead, 1 out in the third (I think) inning and an offense that's as good as any (granted they've struggled as of late). Wells was up at the time, so I'm questioning this on two fronts. First, with one out and the lead early in the game, who gives a damn about that run, as long as you get out number two? Second, it's the #3 hitter who, on most days, is known to pull hard shots through the hole. Alas, this makes no difference but it did surprise me.
Lastly, and I probably should have led off the post with this, the Jays' have a disgustingly slow medical crew. I was seated in aisle 123 (behind the plate) at the beginning of the game and just far back enough so a foul straight back would get over the screen and potentially nail me dead on. In the second, after a few balls had come awfully close to peoples' heads a young girl was unfortunate enough to take a ball in the cheek bone. Though she was lucky in so far as it had bounced off one man's hand and a seat before making contact with her face, it still drew blood and sent her into tears. Immediately the ushers came down to see if everyone was okay and, noticing her in tears, went quickly for medical services. It took approximately 8-10 minutes for the Dome's EMS crew to find her, all the while ushers were standing there unsure of what to do. I'm not about to call for mesh that goes higher but SkyDome has to understand that people in those particular seats are at higher risk than most. As such, stationing medical personelle in aisles 122-124 would be a logical step to take. Further, for everyone's safety, a seminar training ushers in applicable first-aid would be in the Blue Jays' best interests.
It would figure the only game I go to on this homestand would be the one they lose, so blame this one on me. Actually, the turning point in this one, I thought, was Menechino getting picked up first base in the 3rd inning. They were really making The Gambler work that inning. Johnson and Menechino must've accounted for 20 pitches at least. They had him on the ropes but that pick-off, to me, changed the complexion of the game. Rios looked clueless in right today and Vernon took 2 awful hacks in the other key at-bats of the game. Miller deserved a better fate but he too, like Rogers, threw way too many pitches. At least we had some free pizza. It was nice to see the folks at section 518, Named For Hank, Coach, and Bird Droppings, who must have no energy left after pounding the drum. Hope to see the Bauxites during the Dodgers series in 2 weeks.
As for the Dome's EMS crew, I remember on Opening Night last year when they took forever to tend to Derek Jeter after he collided with Ken Huckaby. I had club level seats that night and all they seem to do is drive around the 200 level and honk at people to get out of the way. Maybe the Dome should extend the mesh across like a ceiling to prevent balls from coming down like that. That's the type of set-up they have at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
As for the Dome's EMS crew, I remember on Opening Night last year when they took forever to tend to Derek Jeter after he collided with Ken Huckaby. I had club level seats that night and all they seem to do is drive around the 200 level and honk at people to get out of the way. Maybe the Dome should extend the mesh across like a ceiling to prevent balls from coming down like that. That's the type of set-up they have at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
Sparky always played RF really well, why not put him back in RF and try Rios in LF (a somewhat easier position to play)until he becomes a little more settled in the majors
Brrrrrrr that was ugly. I guess that's what happens when Dave Berg is your starting 1B - I understand Tosca wanting to play a righty against Rogers (I didn't agree, but whatever), but when Rogers got knocked out why did he wait so long to pinch hit and then do so with Howie Clark? Is Pond hurt too? He'd just started to hit too... Tatu really got the shaft today.
Momma told me there'd be days like this, but hey, the Dodgers just loaded them up with no outs and got nothing when Fossum struck out the next three...
Momma told me there'd be days like this, but hey, the Dodgers just loaded them up with no outs and got nothing when Fossum struck out the next three...
Tough game today. Miller pitched well enough to win and the opposite can be said for Rogers. The aforementioned wasted RISP were frustrating, but, Miller and the pen hung in there...for a while.
Six straight against the West would have been ridiculours. V.W., well, what can you say? Talented enough to suffer terribly from pressing, yet still get his knocks. Ugly at bats all weekend for most of the lineup, but particularly V.
The holes in the lineup are really going to leak on the road.
Six straight against the West would have been ridiculours. V.W., well, what can you say? Talented enough to suffer terribly from pressing, yet still get his knocks. Ugly at bats all weekend for most of the lineup, but particularly V.
The holes in the lineup are really going to leak on the road.
I think I can top the Jays RISP misery today. I missed the first 6 innings of today's game with one of my own (not that anyone really cares), but in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings we loaded the bases with no one out and still managed to lose 2-0. Has anyone ever seen this at any level of baseball in their lives? I haven't. I'd have to say the Jays should be congratulated for scoring twice.
I found Miller's start today to be very curious. Lots of deep counts and not a single base on ball. To me he seems to have tremendous control when he needs to, but might be leaving the fat one out there that gets smoked. To me he's an inch away from being a very very good starter.
Maybe someone with a better understanding of pitching or even expression can give us some insight into Miller's potential.
I think, barring any injury Miller will reel-off three or four wins in a row at some point. Listening to the Mariners game today they said Ryan Franlin has had 1.8 run support this yr. I haven't added up Miller's support but it hasn't been much either though not as bad as the luck Franklin has had.
All the best
Maybe someone with a better understanding of pitching or even expression can give us some insight into Miller's potential.
I think, barring any injury Miller will reel-off three or four wins in a row at some point. Listening to the Mariners game today they said Ryan Franlin has had 1.8 run support this yr. I haven't added up Miller's support but it hasn't been much either though not as bad as the luck Franklin has had.
All the best
http://me.woot.net
Here's a simple statistical exercise:
Bases loaded. You've got your 3-4-5 hitters coming up, each of whom has exactly a .400 OBP. Assuming that's exactly what they will do (not the case, but the math is easier), that means that 60% of the time each of them is at bat, he will be out.
So what are the chances of all three being out? .6 * .6 * .6 = 0.216, or better than 1/5 of the time.
Here's a simple statistical exercise:
Bases loaded. You've got your 3-4-5 hitters coming up, each of whom has exactly a .400 OBP. Assuming that's exactly what they will do (not the case, but the math is easier), that means that 60% of the time each of them is at bat, he will be out.
So what are the chances of all three being out? .6 * .6 * .6 = 0.216, or better than 1/5 of the time.
Good news. Carlos is sore with a sprain and "hopes" to play Tuesday. The jays need the thunder back in the 'up.
If there's a light at the end of the tunnel... its that sportscentre played the entire clip of 'take me out to the ballgame' by willy hung...
although such an act can also be interpreted as salt on the wound... :)
Oh god I love that guy...
although such an act can also be interpreted as salt on the wound... :)
Oh god I love that guy...
uhh joe
but most of those outs will be productive.... i.e. score a runner.
only double plays, force outs at home, strike outs, and shallow flys would count towards your .216 of futility...
but most of those outs will be productive.... i.e. score a runner.
only double plays, force outs at home, strike outs, and shallow flys would count towards your .216 of futility...