Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Draft Preview

With the 2004 draft coming up shortly on June 7th, it’s a good time to look back on the first two drafts of JP Ricciardi.

The first Ricciardi draft in 2002 was initially rated the best draft by Baseball America. Russ Adams led off, and then was followed in the next several rounds by college pitchers. So where are the class of 2002 now? Let’s take a look:

Syracuse (AAA):
Russ Adams, SS - Round 1
David Bush, SP - 2

New Hampshire (AA):
Adam Peterson, RP - 4
Jordan DeJong, RP - 18

Dunedin (High A):
Chad Pleiness, RP - 5
Jason Waugh, OF - 11
John Schneider, C - 13
Brad Hassey, SS - 19
Bubbie Buzachero, RP - 23
Eric Kratz, C - 29

Charleston (Low A):
Eric Arnold, 3B - 10
Mike Galloway, OF - 14
David Smith, OF - 15

Extended Spring Training:
Justin Maureau, P - 3
Brian Grant, P - 7
Chris Leonard, P - 8 (Injured)
Russell Savickas, P - 9
Randy Braun, OF - 17

Traded:
Jason Perry, OF to Oakland for John-Ford Griffin - 6

2002 Summary
50 picks
29 signed
25 college players
1 JC player
3 HS players

12 pitchers
9 college pitchers
1 JC pitcher
2 HS pitchers

17 hitters
16 college hitters
0 JC hitters
1 HS hitters

While the 2002 draft was initially highly rated at this point only three players, Adams, Bush, and Peterson, are generally considered to be in the top 20 Blue Jay prospects.

The 2003 draft looked remarkably like the 2002 draft, starting off with a middle infielder and followed by college pitchers. The following is a breakout of where the draftees are today:

New Hampshire (AA):
Aaron Hill, SS - Round 1

Dunedin (High A):
Josh Banks, SP - 2
Kurt Isenberg, SP - 4
Jamie Vermilyea, RP - 9
Jayce Tingler, OF - 10
Vito~! Chiaravalloti, 1B - 15

Charleston (Low A):
Shawn Marcum, SP - 3
Justin James, SP - 5
Christian Snavely, OF - 6
Danny Core, SP - 7
Tom Mastny, SP - 11
Joey Reiman, C - 16
Ryan Roberts, 2B - 18
Mark Sopko, RP - 21
Brian Patrick, OF - 25
Brian Reed, RP - 27
Joey Wolf, C - 33

Extended Spring Training:
Chad Mulholland, P - 8
Jason Rodriguez, P - 12
Matt Foster, P (military service) - 13
Jeremy Harper, P - 14
Jordy Templet, P - 17
Vinny Esposito, 3B - 22
Jeremy Acey, 2B - 23
Kyle Thousand, OF - 26
Billy Wheeler, P - 30
Joaquin Canizal, P - 31
Brad Mumma, P - 32
Jeremy Knicely, C - 42
Michael Rider, P - 49

2003 Summary
50 picks
30 signed
27 college players
3 JC player
0 HS players

18 pitchers
16 college pitchers
2 JC pitcher
0 HS pitchers

12 hitters
11 college hitters
1 JC hitter
0 HS hitters

The 2003 draft looks to be a better draft for the Jays. Aaron Hill is already in New Hampshire, five players are regulars in Dunedin, and eleven players are in Charleston. Five players made the preseason top 20 prospects prior to the season, and at this point in the season it looks like there may be eight 2003 draftees in the top 20.

What to expect for 2004?
In the first two drafts the Jays signed 59 draft picks. Of those players 52 (88%) were college players, 4 were junior college players, and 3 were high school players. Last year the Jays selected college players with their first 18 picks. In 2002 the Jays selected college players with their first 6 picks. It would be a surprise if the emphasis on college players didn’t continue with this draft.

Preliminary Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* College Hitters - May 17th
* College Pitchers, Updated - May 21st
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th and 8th

Posted by Pistol on Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 08:49 AM EDT.

Draft Preview - A Look Back | 61 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_JohnnyS99 - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#60617) #

Sorry Pistol. Kyle Thousand, never signed, and his contract was revoked for some reason. Billy Wheeler and Jeremy Knicely were released in extended this year.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#60618) #

Last August, I felt that the 2002 draft was a good one, and the 2003 draft was excellent. The development of the 2003 mid-round picks, James, Core, Tingler, Mastny and Roberts, since August, to add to Vito and Vermilyea, is really quite extraordinary. Add in Hill, Banks, Marcum and Isenberg, and it seems to me likely that the 2003 draft will produce 4-5 quality major leaguers.

Very helpful summary, Pistol.

_JohnnyS99 - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#60619) #

The lack of postion players is disturbing. Outside of Vito, Hill, and Adams. This is due to the focus of pitching in the early rounds. With all the playeres in extended spring training, maybe jp wont be so pitching heavy early in the draft. He needs to draft some impact outfielders, not just organization fillers like owens, waugh, Aj (released).

Pistol - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#60620) #

Sorry Pistol. Kyle Thousand, never signed, and his contract was revoked for some reason. Billy Wheeler and Jeremy Knicely were released in extended this year.

Thanks. It's hard to keep track of who's in EST and who's not with the organization anymore.

_johnnnyS99 - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#60621) #

Lots of pitchers this year pistol, almost enough to alreayd fill both staffs (pulaski, and Auburn). Expect a release or two after the draft of some pitchers.

Gerry - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#60622) #

Small correction, Thousand did sign but tore his labrum in his first game.

_JohnnyS99 - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#60623) #

http://www.dailyiowan.com/main.cfm?include=subApplication&subApplicationName=quickRegister&fuse=registrationOrLoginRequired&thereferer=http%3A//www.dailyiowan.com/news/445378.html%3Fpage%3D2
Did he actually get into the game? I dont believe he is under contract though, i remember reading it was revoked. COMN for Link on the injury with an interview.

"[It happened during] a workout before a game," the center fielder said. "I was throwing home, and I felt my shoulder give away."

_johnnnyS99 - Wednesday, May 26 2004 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#60624) #

http://www.dailyiowan.com/global_user_elements/printpage.cfm?storyid=438606
Article below, wow 750k!! COMN

Thousand is a junior and will leave the university early without earning a degree. His former coach, Scott Broghamer, doesn't see that as a problem.

"Give us three years [for education]," Broghamer said. "But it's hard to argue with a $750,000 contract. Kyle is one of those guys who is going to get his degree."

The finance major led Iowa with a .355 batting average and earned second-team honors. Thousand led the Hawkeyes in several categories, including runs (42), hits (57), doubles (17), and stolen bases (20) in 2003. He was second-team All-Big Ten this year.

_MatO - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#60625) #

I believe Scott Dragecevich was chosen in the 2002 draft and is playing quite well in Dunedin this year.

_Darren - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#60626) #

Not to mention a lot of great free agents signings as well in 2002 and 2003. Key in point pitchers Matt Dalton, an all american out of Virginia Tech. John Wesley dominated out of South Carolina, and James Pidutti out of a Kansas Juco. All missed out on the draft but will be great acquistions to the Jays staff of the future.

_AndrewS - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#60627) #

You don't really need to draft hitters anyhow, they're much easier and cheaper to pick up for the most part as FAs than pitchers are.

robertdudek - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#60628) #

The lack of postion players is disturbing. Outside of Vito, Hill, and Adams.

Hey JohnnnyS99, I've got two words for you ...

Ryan Roberts.

Actually, let's throw in 2 more: Jayce Tingler.

_Dean - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#60629) #

Roberts and Tingler will probably at best be spare parts, their age and level of playing right now suggest this. Someone please tell me how you sign impact players cheaply as free agents. There are exceptions, Ortiz in Boston, but I haven't noticed a lot of consistent all-stars plucked off the discard pile. Getting back to Roberts and Tingler, I'd love to eat my words on them in the future.

_johnnnyS99 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#60630) #

Dudek, Ryan Roberts and Jayce Tingler, are both both too old for their respective leagues. Ryan Roberts is 23 years old, and may be a prospect if he does the same in AA, until then i would call him more suspect, there alot of players in that league who are younger who are doing the same if not better. He needs to be tested in AA very soon, Christopher Weekly, Brandon Jackson, both experienced the same sucess. But you dont agree, Toronto has very little depth in postion prospects due to JP focusing on pitchers the last two drafts. Most of the outfielders/infielders taken, are not even in the top 10 rounds

Craig B - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#60631) #

Dean, I agree with you on Tingler, but Roberts has a decent chance to be a significant player. It's sort of unbelievable that with his hitting pedigree, he was left in the draft so long.

_johnnnyS99 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#60632) #

Robert, even if i count the two players you added ? The Jays hve 5 half decent minor leaugers below AA? YIKES!! Tingler, projects as a utility outfielder at best, and his batting average and lack of power is pretty scary.

_johnnnyS99 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#60633) #

Anybody, find any interesting links, on this Graig Badger , that was signed yesterday by the Blue Jays?

Craig B - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#60634) #

Graig Badger is one of the top 50 hitters in the NCAA this year according to my adjusted xRAA analysis (the top 100 will be published tomorrow on The Hardball Times). Getting him signed up is good.

Craig B - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#60635) #

He's a second baseman, a small guy (5-9, 177) with truly excellent speed and a very good batting eye, loves to take his walks. Led the Big East in OBP. He doesn't have much power. Basically your prototypical second baseman and leadoff hitter, a guy who will hit a single, take a walk or a HBP, steal some bases.

I don't know if the Jays see him as a 2B for the long term, but he doesn't have much of a future otherwise. I imagine he'll start off at Auburn but he may play in Pulaski if the team is otherwise stocked at second.

_johnnnyS99 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#60636) #

He looks like Jayson Tinger but an infielder, lots of stolen bases, walks. Maybe the Jays dont plan on taking any infielders early in the draft, and they will focus on pitching again.

Craig B - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#60637) #

One thing about Charleston, they have a lot of the 2003 draftees and they are killing their competition. That's nice to see.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#60638) #

I'd love to see Ryan Roberts in double A before the end of this year. A start would be an early promotion to Dunedin. Carlo Cota can play third base or could be promoted to New Hampshire; Dominic Rich could be promoted from New Hampshire to Syracuse, and Howie Clark could move to the outfield from second base to take Rios' spot.

Roberts seems, to the outsider, to have adapted to second base very well. The A-Cats have turned a fair number of double plays; Roberts has made relatively few errors; the pitchers seem to be doing well generally. Most importantly, the position change hasn't affected his hitting.

_Ryan01 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#60639) #

If the Jays can pull one major league hitter out of the draft per year along with 2-3 pitchers then they're doing quite well historically. If Hill and Adams continue their current pace and any of Vito, Roberts, Tingler, Reiman, Cota, Snavely, Griffin (since he was traded for Perry), Waugh etc. turn into anything more than bench warmers then I'd say we're well ahead of the game.

Impact players aren't easy to find, hitters or pitchers. But hitting depth isn't nearly as hard to find as pitching depth as JP has shown with Myers, Zaun, Clark, Cat, Wilson, Bordick, Gomez compared to the plethora of failed waiver wires pickups and pitching trades.

Pistol - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#60640) #

Someone please tell me how you sign impact players cheaply as free agents.

Unless you're getting lucky you don't. But you can sign a productive hitter to fill a gap for a million or two. It's very hard to find a productive starter or closer for that same price, and you typically have to commit for more years. So if you're going to be unbalanced you might as well be unbalanced on the pitching side of things. Plus, there's nothing that says you can't make trades.

Just a hunch, but I suspect the Jays will take a couple hitters in their first 5 picks (16, 32, 57, 83, 87)

_Spicol - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#60641) #

You don't really need to draft hitters anyhow, they're much easier and cheaper to pick up for the most part as FAs than pitchers are.

That might be true when it comes to bench strength and borderline, yet productive, starting players but one doesn't pick up star players for cheap. Every team needs its stars and it's much cheaper to develop them than buy them.

robertdudek - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#60642) #

Ryan Roberts is 23 years old, and may be a prospect if he does the same in AA, until then i would call him more suspect, there alot of players in that league who are younger who are doing the same if not better.

It's not his fault he is in Charleston, instead of Dunedin or New Hampshire. What I do know is that he's far too good for the league he's playing in and needs to be promoted. Last year he was the 2nd better hitter in Division 1. The second best. That kind of hitter has to be a prospect - maybe not a potential Major League All-Star - but a prospect.

robertdudek - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#60643) #

Tingler, projects as a utility outfielder at best, and his batting average and lack of power is pretty scary.

And his ability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts is scary too - literally off the charts. From what I hear he is a very nimble, speedy sort of outfielder.

So you have a player with some outstanding strengths and some outstanding weaknesses - those players are usually more valuable than a prospect who is average all around.

A prospect doesn't have to be someone like Alex Rios. It's anyone who has a reasonable chance to contribute something at the major league level.

_JohnnyS99 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#60644) #

Either way, if Tingler is one of your top 5 position prospects, it looks pretty scary, and proves my point.

_JohnnyS99 - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#60645) #

Roberts should at least be in Dunedin at his age, then we can make a better assessment. With his OPS he looks to project well their, time will tell. JP needs to draft a couple of solid outfielders early, as it looks like a big weakness in the system.

_Smithville - Thursday, May 27 2004 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#60646) #

Tingler has 34 walks and 10 HBP for 44 free passes to first this season. Only 13 K's. His OBP is currently around .400. He has also scored 32 times this season, second on the team to Cota. Although he doesn't have any HR's he is fourth on the team in Doubles.

Tingler is also a great defensive player. I think that he may have had only one error last season and is playing error free so far this season. He has played most of his career at CF, but has been playing mostly LF this year.

Cota has been good from the plate recently, but picked up his 11th error tonight.

robertdudek - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#60647) #

Either way, if Tingler is one of your top 5 position prospects, it looks pretty scary, and proves my point.

No. Those would be Rios, Quiroz, Hill, Adams and Gross.

Regarding those drafted only in the last two years: Hill, Adams, Roberts, Vito, Tingler (or Snavely).

Here's a challenge for you, johnnnys99 - take a look at the last two drafts by all 30 teams and make a list of teams whose 5 best position draftees you'd take over the group I've just listed.

I'd bet that you can't come up with more than 12 such teams that are clearly better than the Jays' top 5, despite the Jays concentrating heavily on pitchers.

_Max Parkinson - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#60648) #

Robert,

I'll take up that challenge - although as subjective as these things are, we'll probably end up disagreeing on at least a few teams...

ARI - C. Jackson, Santos, Quentin, D'Antona, whomever (Brian Rose?)
ATL - Francoeur, McCann, Doetsch, whomever
CHC - Harvey, Tony Richie, Dopirak (this is one that I'm not sure about, I guess it depends on your impression of Harvey)
CLE - Aubrey, Whitney, Garko, Snyder, Francisco
COL - Stewart, Baker, whomever
CWS - J. Reed, Anderson, Sweeney, Valido, whomever
DET - Moore, Clevlen, Giarratano (OK throw out Detroit).
FLA - Hermida, E. Reed, any other 3 (Fulton?).
KC - Lubanski, Costa, Maier, McFall, whomever
LA - Loney, Paul, Delwyn Young, whomever
MIL - Weeks, Fielder, Gwynn, Palmisano, Opdyke
OAK - Teahen, Swisher, Snyder, Quintanilla, Majewski
SD - Greene, Stonard, Morton (thin, but a good big leaguer already wins out)
TB - Upton, Young, Bankston, Pridie, Dukes

Wow, conclusion different than I started with... I've got 14, with 2 obvious stretches (Cubs and Tiggers). Now, I rank them the way I do based on probable impact - i.e. I'd rather Loney than Adams, even if he's a lot further away, as the chances of Loney being an all-star are significantly greater, even after factoring in how close Adams is to the show...

2 teams that could be up there, but a lot harder to defend, are:

MIN - Moses, anyone else (yep, I like left-handed power)
BOS - Murphy, Murton, falls off quickly...

I think that that says a lot for the Jays' 2 drafts, as 3 of the 5 on that list are below 7th rounders (including an 18th!). No other team does that...

Mike Green - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#60649) #

Max, thanks. We might disagree on a couple of points, but the essence is right. Now, I wonder what the score would be for the 2002-2003 pitchers. The Jays lead off with Bush, Banks, Peterson, Marcum, James (or Isenberg or Mastny or Core). I'm guessing that there aren't 5 teams that do better.

_Jonny German - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#60650) #

JP needs to draft a couple of solid outfielders early, as it looks like a big weakness in the system.

Vernon Wells is under contract through 2007.
Reed Johnson will qualify for free agency after the 2008 season.
Alexis Rios will qualify for free agency after the 2009 season at the earliest.
Gabe Gross will qualify for free agency after the 2010 season at the earliest.
Frankie Catalanotto, making $2.3M this year, will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Between the guys on hand and the market value of productive corner outfielders (See Stairs, Matt at $1.0M), the current lack (or perceived lack) of outfield prospects in the Toronto system is inconsequential.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#60651) #

Not true, It is a major weakness, an outfielder drafted this year will not be ready till 2007 and 2008, so that pretty much throws your theory out the window, and who says any of those guys will be with the big club? Eiether way, the jays lack positional player depth, and it is needed among every club.

_Ryan01 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#60652) #

Rios actually won't be a free agent until after 2010 at the earliest either. He may qualify as a super-two, but he definitely won't get a full season's worth of service time this year. Gross I'm guessing may get a late start to next season if he does undergo surgery in September he may get a similar late May/early June callup giving him until 2011.

The Jays need to draft the best players they can find and worry about filling holes as they appear because it's virtually imposible to tell who is going to break out and who is going to flop between now and 2010.

_Jonny German - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#60653) #

Rios actually won't be a free agent until after 2010 at the earliest either. He may qualify as a super-two, but he definitely won't get a full season's worth of service time this year.

Clarify for me: A super-two player is arbitration-eligible for 4 seasons instead of the normal 3?

Craig B - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#60654) #

Jonny, that's correct.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#60655) #

"Rios actually won't be a free agent until after 2010 at the earliest either. He may qualify as a super-two, but he definitely won't get a full season's worth of service time this year. Gross I'm guessing may get a late start to next season if he does undergo surgery in September he may get a similar late May/early June callup giving him until 2011.

The Jays need to draft the best players they can find and worry about filling holes as they appear because it's virtually imposible to tell who is going to break out and who is going to flop between now and 2010."

Exactly meaning, they need to draft postional players higher. Isnt pitching a weakness your suggesting they draft in?? (your contradicting your arguement. Who says Gross wont be a bust either, dont put all your eggs in one basket. The jays have major weakneses in postional players in the lower levels, and they need to fill all wholes. Bottom line is, it doesnt matter whos on the big club, and they cant be filling holes (they have been focusing on pitching) But why are you mentinining they arleady have outfielders signed till 2007? The jays need to draft outfielders early plain and simple.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#60656) #

Between the guys on hand and the market value of productive corner outfielders (See Stairs, Matt at $1.0M), the current lack (or perceived lack) of outfield prospects in the Toronto system is inconsequential.

Again not true, Wells, could be gone by the time a draft pick this year reaches. Gross and Rios could be traded or busts. Dont put your eggs in one basket. JP needs to diversfy the draft more, if you compare our depth chart to other organizations the jays are rather weak in positional players, they need to have strenghts at every postion. They should be excluding outfielders cause of their current situation, thats just silly.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#60657) #

Johhny, Are Gross, Rios, and Johnson sure things for the outfield in 2007 and 2008? To my knowledge none are proven, and Johnson, predicts more of a fourth outfielder.

Pistol - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#60658) #

The point about not being concerned about OFs depth is that they are the most easily replaced position.

And what does Reed Johnson have to do to be considered more than a 4th OF?

robertdudek - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#60659) #

Max,

I count 6 of your list that are clearly better. As a twosome Adams and Hill are exceeded only by TB, MIL, ARZ and CWS. The Cleveland and Oakland groups probably have more depth, but I'd match Hill and Adams against any other twosome and our 3 to 5 are as good or better than all the others you've listed.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#60660) #

Overall postional player depth was my point, and the jays are rather weak outide of gross, hill, Godwin and Griffin are very fringe prospects now. The fact that Jayce Tingler is the better outfield prospect below AA, is rather scary. Why does almost every other organization have more sucess with postional players then JP over the last 2 years. Jp is drafting old college senoirs, mostly after the 15th round. Only hill, Vito and tingler are half decent out of last years draft, and Tingler and Vito wouldnt make most teams top 30 prospect lists.

Reed Johnson can increase his OPS, hit rightanded hitting better, and draw more walks.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#60661) #

Our best infiled prospect below AA, is a 23 year old 2nd baseman? who is not even one of the top hitters in his league? YIKES!

robertdudek - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#60662) #

johnnys99,

You are a one-note Johnny who has failed to address the real issue. Who cares about what is and isn't below AA - would it make you happier if Hill had started the year in Dunedin?

I maintain that only 6 teams have better position prospects from the last two drafts. Why can't you address that claim instead of repeating your mantra?

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#60663) #

6 teams, based on what prospect rankings? Define better? Robert , do the blue jays have depth in postion players? Look at Duendin for example, Negron? Tingler? They jays lack depth in postion players , you cant doubt that. They jays have tons of low ceiling players, most were drafted by JP.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#60664) #

Robert, you think Jayce Tingler is a prospect? Unless he starts hitting, he wont make it out of Duendin. 250 hitters, dont really deserve to get promoted.

_JohnnyS99 - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#60665) #

Hasnt JP been focusing on pitching through the first 20 rounds of each draft? I would like to see a bit more of a balanced draft, with still a large focus on pitching.

robertdudek - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#60666) #

I issued the challenge and I've conceded six. I am now waiting for cogent arguments regarding any of the other 23 teams.

Mike Green - Friday, May 28 2004 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#60667) #

To back up Robert's point, 2 of the teams that have clearly better position prospects are Tampa Bay led by Upton and Young and Milwaukee led by Fielder and Weeks. I'd say that draft order has a lot to do with that. It's relatively easy to hit a draft home run when you have the 1st or 2nd overall pick.

_johnnnyS99 - Saturday, May 29 2004 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#60668) #

Robert has no point. Go to the chat forums on the prospect board, jays are only top six on your list, cause of a few first rounders and quiroz. your talking impact prospects though? You honeslty think the jays have decent postion prospects? outside of Qurioz, Gross, Hill, and Adams, no one would even make the BA top 200. Im going up down all the teams minor league rosters, and Toronto doesnt have many, and the borderline prospects they got, are too old for their respectul leagues.

Pistol - Saturday, May 29 2004 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#60669) #

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1811682
COMN for a study of college and HS pitchers in the draft.

Mike Green - Saturday, May 29 2004 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#60670) #

Thanks, Pistol. It's great to see tangotiger getting the recognition he deserves.

There is one additional point, not made in the study, and again it favours college pitchers. I am quite sure that if the study only considered pitchers who made it to the majors with the team that drafted him, the disparity would be even greater in favour of college pitchers. High school pitchers often may take 5 or 6 years to develop, and are more likely to be lost in the Rule 5 draft or as 6-year minor leaguers than college pitchers. Finally, again the additional development time has a hidden cost- space is taken on the 40 man roster for longer, and that space could be used by other players.

robertdudek - Saturday, May 29 2004 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#60671) #

Mike,

Except that very few Rule 5 pitchers have very productive big league careers. Johan Santana is the only one I can think of that looks like he will, but he wasn't drafted at all. I don't think it would alter the basic conclusion at all if you discarded Rule 5'ers who changed organisations.

Mike Green - Saturday, May 29 2004 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#60672) #

OK, Robert. But, it's not only the Rule 5 draft. Pitchers often do drift in and out of organizations before they reach the majors.

If I get a chance when the full study is released, I'll see if I can trace some of the lesser known pitchers to see whether there are differences in the rate at which high school pitchers produce for the team that drafted them compared with college pitchers.

Anyways, whether or not my point is of any significance, the study is well done and confirms what I have believed for years.

_Max Parkinson - Monday, May 31 2004 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#60673) #

Robert,

First off, when I posted my list, I included the observation that my conclusion was different than my assumption. I expected to find at least 20 teams whose position players I would take before the Jays, and found 10-14 instead, which made your point.

That said, maybe you just don't take a prospect seriously until he's played full-season ball. That's totally acceptable, but we just won't be able to come to very many agreements on that list, as so many players haven't had that experience.

In saying that you'd rather Hill and Adams than any other "twosome", that is somewhat misleading. I'd rather Ian Stewart than both Hill and Adams (and every other position prospect in the system, save Q). Impact bats are much tougher to find than average middle infielders, which Adams definately projects to. That ignores Jeff Baker, who I'd rather than Adams himself - Hill and Baker would be a tougher call.

What I found in trying to gather info to respond to you was that the Jays' draft really was the most impressive of the 30 teams top to bottom. While I don't think that they got any future all-stars (time will tell...), looking round-by-round, Toronto got the most productive (if rarely most projectable) player in most rounds from 2-20, in both years! Critics will say that their draftees should do well early, as they draft college players, but their college selections have consistently outperformed other college draftees by round. It's a credit to the scouting dep't.

robertdudek - Monday, May 31 2004 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#60674) #

You may be right, but I happen to think that Hill is the best college position prospect in the 2003 draft save for Weeks and Conor Jackson. I'd put him even keel with Jackson. When you look at what Hill has done in the not-quite-year he's been a professional, you've got to be impressed. And Adams is pushing .360 OBP in AAA with 23/20 W/K and 19 doubles in his second full season.

I take sort of the opposite few - there are lots of minor league 1B types who can hit, but minor league shortstops who can hit tend to become really good major league infielders. I'm not overly impressed with some guy putting up flashy numbers in the SALLY league.

Pistol - Tuesday, June 01 2004 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#60675) #

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/fantasy/story
COMN for an article on where each of the first round draft picks from last year are.

I remember last year when the Jays pick came up I was hoping they took Sullivan, but he's not exactly lighting it up in A ball right now.

Craig B - Tuesday, June 01 2004 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#60676) #

Pistol, what's interesting is that other than the three relievers, only Aaron Hill and Rickie Weeks are at AA. And Hill and Weeks are performing at about the same level.

_Matt - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#60677) #

mock draft today? All the suckas wanna know!!! :)

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