I still think that's a great nickname for Justin Miller, tonight's starter, if for no other reason then that it pays fitting homage to the wonderful Ray Bradbury. But I understand "Tatu" is getting a lot of support from Fantasy Island fans hereabouts. I'll continue to plug my nickname, but it might be worth taking a closer look behind the body art and examine whether Miller's hot start to 2004 can be expected to continue.
Here's Miller's pitching record since 2000, when he was acquired by the Oakland organization:
2000 AA Midland (23): 5-4, 4.55, 18 GS, 87 IP, 74 H, 41 BB, 82 K
2000 AAA Sacramento (23): 4-1, 2.47, 9 GS, 54 IP, 42 H, 13 BB, 34 K
2001 AAA Sacramento (24): 7-10, 4.75, 28 GS, 165 IP, 174 H, 64 BB, 134 K
2002 AAA Syracuse (25): 3-2, 1.61, 8 GS, 44 IP, 34 H, 16 BB, 29 K
2002 MLB Toronto (25): 9-5, 5.54, 25 G, 18 GS, 102 IP, 103 H, 66 BB, 68 K
2004 AAA Syrcause (27): 1-0, 2.16, 3 GS, 16 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 21 K
2004 MLB Toronto (27): 1-0, 3.00, 18 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 15 K
Miller was reportedly pitching hurt for part of the 2001 season, and the PCL isn't a very pitcher-friendly circuit, so his fine K/BB numbers are even more impressive. In fact, everywhere he's pitched except Toronto in 2002, he's struck out twice the batters he's walked, and not since Midland has he walked a batter less than every couple of innings. But not since Midland has Miller's K/IP approached 1/1 either, and that's what he's been doing in his brief but sterling performance in 2004. So while Miller's success thus far isn't a fluke and does have precedent, it probably won't remain this good. But still, there are exceptions. Miller's always had a dynamite arm (he was a 5th-round draft pick of the Rockies in 1997), and his natural stuff is electric. The folks at Baseball Prospectus like to describe some talented but scuffling pitching prospects as "one walk per nine innings away from greatness." Youneverknow.
It's not often that a pitching matchup with the Red Sox skews to Toronto's benefit, but that might be the case tonight. Derek Lowe is on a skid: he's allowed 15 hits and 13 runs in his last 10 2/3 innings, ballooning his ERA up to 5.01. His history at Skydome is even worse: perhaps because of the turf, this groundballer's career ERA at the Dome is 6.75 in 21 appearances.
After their 12-6 victory last night, the Blue Jays ought to smell blood: the Red Sox bullpen should be tired, and if the Jays batters can knock out Lowe early, Boston has relatively short-stint starters coming up on the weekend in Bronson Arroyo and Pedro Martinez. The Jays can't afford to keep stranding runners; if they cash in on their chances at even an average rate, and continue to get admirable starting pitching throughout this series, then they could deliver a clear message to the BoSox and the rest of the American League: we're not done yet.
Here's Miller's pitching record since 2000, when he was acquired by the Oakland organization:
2000 AA Midland (23): 5-4, 4.55, 18 GS, 87 IP, 74 H, 41 BB, 82 K
2000 AAA Sacramento (23): 4-1, 2.47, 9 GS, 54 IP, 42 H, 13 BB, 34 K
2001 AAA Sacramento (24): 7-10, 4.75, 28 GS, 165 IP, 174 H, 64 BB, 134 K
2002 AAA Syracuse (25): 3-2, 1.61, 8 GS, 44 IP, 34 H, 16 BB, 29 K
2002 MLB Toronto (25): 9-5, 5.54, 25 G, 18 GS, 102 IP, 103 H, 66 BB, 68 K
2004 AAA Syrcause (27): 1-0, 2.16, 3 GS, 16 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 21 K
2004 MLB Toronto (27): 1-0, 3.00, 18 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 15 K
Miller was reportedly pitching hurt for part of the 2001 season, and the PCL isn't a very pitcher-friendly circuit, so his fine K/BB numbers are even more impressive. In fact, everywhere he's pitched except Toronto in 2002, he's struck out twice the batters he's walked, and not since Midland has he walked a batter less than every couple of innings. But not since Midland has Miller's K/IP approached 1/1 either, and that's what he's been doing in his brief but sterling performance in 2004. So while Miller's success thus far isn't a fluke and does have precedent, it probably won't remain this good. But still, there are exceptions. Miller's always had a dynamite arm (he was a 5th-round draft pick of the Rockies in 1997), and his natural stuff is electric. The folks at Baseball Prospectus like to describe some talented but scuffling pitching prospects as "one walk per nine innings away from greatness." Youneverknow.
It's not often that a pitching matchup with the Red Sox skews to Toronto's benefit, but that might be the case tonight. Derek Lowe is on a skid: he's allowed 15 hits and 13 runs in his last 10 2/3 innings, ballooning his ERA up to 5.01. His history at Skydome is even worse: perhaps because of the turf, this groundballer's career ERA at the Dome is 6.75 in 21 appearances.
After their 12-6 victory last night, the Blue Jays ought to smell blood: the Red Sox bullpen should be tired, and if the Jays batters can knock out Lowe early, Boston has relatively short-stint starters coming up on the weekend in Bronson Arroyo and Pedro Martinez. The Jays can't afford to keep stranding runners; if they cash in on their chances at even an average rate, and continue to get admirable starting pitching throughout this series, then they could deliver a clear message to the BoSox and the rest of the American League: we're not done yet.
