Personally, I can't think of any possible worse news to emerge from the Blue Jays' minor-league system than that Dustin McGowan has been placed on the disabled list and is expected to miss the rest of the season. We don't know any more than you do at the moment, so we can't say whether McGowan will be back on a mound next April. More details to follow.
Another Will Carroll curse.
First, he talks about a ten or twenty game winning streak and causes our loss on Tuesday to Reyes. Then he goes on to say, "How many minor leaguers have been injured in the Jays system? Just Rosario," and proceeds to praise our organisation's approach and precaution with minor leaguers.
And what happens two days later?
First, he talks about a ten or twenty game winning streak and causes our loss on Tuesday to Reyes. Then he goes on to say, "How many minor leaguers have been injured in the Jays system? Just Rosario," and proceeds to praise our organisation's approach and precaution with minor leaguers.
And what happens two days later?
We don't know any more than you do at the moment, so we can't say whether McGowan will be back on a mound next April
Assuming that it's an arm injury and assuming it's bad enough that he'll miss the rest of this season I can't imagine that McGowan's going to see Toronto any time before the start of the 2006 season now.
What seems odd to me is that this came out of nowhere, it's not like it was something that occured during a game where he had to come out. Perhaps something happened throwing between starts.
Regardless it sucks.
Assuming that it's an arm injury and assuming it's bad enough that he'll miss the rest of this season I can't imagine that McGowan's going to see Toronto any time before the start of the 2006 season now.
What seems odd to me is that this came out of nowhere, it's not like it was something that occured during a game where he had to come out. Perhaps something happened throwing between starts.
Regardless it sucks.
Don't count your pitchers before they're hatched. This is a bad break.
I don't know that the Jays did anything wrong with McGowan but there's always a danger when you start ramping up the innings each year for a tender young arm.
Age 18: Rookie, 25 ip, 26 h, 25 bb, 19 k
Age 19: A-, 67 ip, 57 h, 49 bb, 80 k
Age 20: A-, 148.1 ip, 143 h, 59 bb, 163 k
Age 21: A+/AA, 152.1 ip, 140 h, 44 bb, 138 k
You can see in his early years McGowan didn't have a huge amount of innings but those innings were full of baserunners and deep counts. Thirty pitches in one inning can be just as bad going well over a hundred during the course of a game.
Coming back to this year, eventhough McGowan was rolling early in the year, they weren't what I would call easy starts for him. The 9 strikeout, 1 walk performance versus Akron came before his season started unraveling. In the boxscore it looks like a great start. But if you listened to the game he was going deep in the count to most batters and had to throw a lot of pitches as they spoiled his two strike pitches a lot. It was not an easy game for him and neither was the next game where he was beaten up after starting well.
I'm sure the Jays kept him on a pitch count for each game. But I wonder if they monitored his pitches per inning and pitches per batter even. I think this is just as important. Throwing a lot of pitches early in the game can tax a starter even if he starts finding his rhythm later. I know it sounds ridiculous to tell your manager to pull a starting prospect if he throws a 30 pitch second inning but I think that's what player development people have to start looking at. First and foremost you have to keep everyone healthy and with the way the Jays are drafting pitching there should be no shortage of long relief options for days when guys don't have their efficiency.
I don't know that the Jays did anything wrong with McGowan but there's always a danger when you start ramping up the innings each year for a tender young arm.
Age 18: Rookie, 25 ip, 26 h, 25 bb, 19 k
Age 19: A-, 67 ip, 57 h, 49 bb, 80 k
Age 20: A-, 148.1 ip, 143 h, 59 bb, 163 k
Age 21: A+/AA, 152.1 ip, 140 h, 44 bb, 138 k
You can see in his early years McGowan didn't have a huge amount of innings but those innings were full of baserunners and deep counts. Thirty pitches in one inning can be just as bad going well over a hundred during the course of a game.
Coming back to this year, eventhough McGowan was rolling early in the year, they weren't what I would call easy starts for him. The 9 strikeout, 1 walk performance versus Akron came before his season started unraveling. In the boxscore it looks like a great start. But if you listened to the game he was going deep in the count to most batters and had to throw a lot of pitches as they spoiled his two strike pitches a lot. It was not an easy game for him and neither was the next game where he was beaten up after starting well.
I'm sure the Jays kept him on a pitch count for each game. But I wonder if they monitored his pitches per inning and pitches per batter even. I think this is just as important. Throwing a lot of pitches early in the game can tax a starter even if he starts finding his rhythm later. I know it sounds ridiculous to tell your manager to pull a starting prospect if he throws a 30 pitch second inning but I think that's what player development people have to start looking at. First and foremost you have to keep everyone healthy and with the way the Jays are drafting pitching there should be no shortage of long relief options for days when guys don't have their efficiency.
I was critical of McGowan's progress recently but there now appears to be a reason for his last two starts. Terrible news.
There's no way to sugarcoat the magnitude of this news. For McGowan's sake (and the organization's, to a lesser extent), let's hope for a complete recovery for the unbelievably talented, dedicated, and humble hurler.
Having said all that, here's Dustin's 2004 game log, with as much information as is available:
[You'll also remember that it was shortly after the April 27th gem that we first read (prematurely, as it turned out) of McGowan's immanent promotion to Syracuse.]
Having said all that, here's Dustin's 2004 game log, with as much information as is available:
IP H R ER BB SO HR WP HP Pitches
04/10 6.0 1 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 70
04/15 5.0 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 80
04/20 5.1 4 1 1 5 2 0 0 0 --
04/27 6.0 3 1 1 1 9 0 2 0 --
05/02 4.1 5 6 6 4 4 2 0 0 93 (32 in 5th inning!)
05/08 4.1 7 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 --
[You'll also remember that it was shortly after the April 27th gem that we first read (prematurely, as it turned out) of McGowan's immanent promotion to Syracuse.]
TJ surgery for McGowan today, out till mid next year, Toronto not until 2006.
That fifth inning was when he blew up performance wise and that's 32 pitches against only one out. It's hard to say whether he hit the wall because he was hurt or he was hurt because he hit the wall.
I'm sure if McGowan was hurting he would have said something. But sometimes even mild soreness can turn into something more serious.
I'm sure if McGowan was hurting he would have said something. But sometimes even mild soreness can turn into something more serious.
No future ace in sight now for at least 2 years. The jays need to draft a big time college pitcher with Talent, maybe Thomas Diaomond.
Well at least it's TJ surgery. The recovery varies. Koch was injured at a similar point in the season and was back pitching to start the next year. I'm heartened by the fact that David Wells had TJ surgery in 1984.
Well, if you want a silver lining to the dark cloud, it's better that it be the elbow than the shoulder. Toronto in 2007, at the earliest, IMO. But, that's OK, as long as he makes a full recovery, and with the Tommy John surgery there's a pretty good chance that he will.
But, as for McGowan being the only Jay hope for a pitcher to accompany Halladay and Batista in the rotation of the pennant contenders of 2005-06, that seems to be overly pessimistic. Bush and Banks both have a good chance to help out by the end of 2006, and there are a few longshots who might make it.
It has been a bad start to this year, hasn't it? The big ball club has had its troubles and 2 of the top 3 prospects have sustained significant injuries, one of which is quite serious.
But, as for McGowan being the only Jay hope for a pitcher to accompany Halladay and Batista in the rotation of the pennant contenders of 2005-06, that seems to be overly pessimistic. Bush and Banks both have a good chance to help out by the end of 2006, and there are a few longshots who might make it.
It has been a bad start to this year, hasn't it? The big ball club has had its troubles and 2 of the top 3 prospects have sustained significant injuries, one of which is quite serious.
Sadly, this happens in every organization. The surprising thing would have been for none of the Jays prospects to get hurt. Sure, it's bad news, but you have to believe the Jays were expecting one of their prospects to go under the knife, while doing all they could to prevent it. They'll recover from this; there are still good arms in the system, and I don't know how much McGowan would have contributed in 2005, anyway. Not a death-blow at all to the future, just a mild pinch in the arm.
On the bright side:
Many TJ shoulder patients come back with even more strength in their shoulder since the new tendon often has more collagen than what was replaced.
Smoltz and Wood have still got plenty of gas.
On the negative side:
Only seventy percent of shoulder surgeries are successful.
GET WELL, GET WELL SOON! WE WANT YOU TO GET WELL!
GET WELL, GET WELL SOON! WE WANT YOU TO GET WELL!
Many TJ shoulder patients come back with even more strength in their shoulder since the new tendon often has more collagen than what was replaced.
Smoltz and Wood have still got plenty of gas.
On the negative side:
Only seventy percent of shoulder surgeries are successful.
GET WELL, GET WELL SOON! WE WANT YOU TO GET WELL!
GET WELL, GET WELL SOON! WE WANT YOU TO GET WELL!
http://www.nhfishercats.com
The Fisher Cats have called up Francisco Rosario, who is tabbed to start the homestand tomorrow in Manchester against the Mets.
McGowan's velocity was excellent last Saturday against Reading, indiciating he probably didn't have the injury going into that game (just speculation). Surgery today was described as successful. Performed by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham (the TJ doctor).
Bob Lipman---Fisher Cats play-by-play
The Fisher Cats have called up Francisco Rosario, who is tabbed to start the homestand tomorrow in Manchester against the Mets.
McGowan's velocity was excellent last Saturday against Reading, indiciating he probably didn't have the injury going into that game (just speculation). Surgery today was described as successful. Performed by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham (the TJ doctor).
Bob Lipman---Fisher Cats play-by-play
Thanks, Bob, for the eyewitness report, and I'm sure I can speak for all Bauxites when I say that we're pleased that the surgery was successful.
Will Carroll often writes about how recovery from Tommy John surgery continues to quicken. It's at the point now where a pitcher can return in 12 months. AJ Burnett is likely to return to the Marlins in 14 months after his injury.
So if McGowan has surgery in the next week he could return in the middle of next season. The AFL in 2005 is a possibility.
Assuming all goes well he hits Toronto at the ASB in 2006.
So if McGowan has surgery in the next week he could return in the middle of next season. The AFL in 2005 is a possibility.
Assuming all goes well he hits Toronto at the ASB in 2006.
http://espn.go.com/trainingroom/s/2000/0315/427112.html
COMN for a half decent article on TJ surgery.
Sounds a heck of a lot more promising than the rotator cuff article for which I confused terms earlier. Could be a lot worse...
COMN for a half decent article on TJ surgery.
Sounds a heck of a lot more promising than the rotator cuff article for which I confused terms earlier. Could be a lot worse...
Hey Bob:
Dustin must have injured his elbow in that game. I see he was pulled in the middle of an inning. Do you remember anything different about that inning?
Dustin must have injured his elbow in that game. I see he was pulled in the middle of an inning. Do you remember anything different about that inning?
I have this strange feeling that I may have made a deal with the Jays fan devil when I was sitting in the stands at SkyDome on October 23, 1993. I wanted to see the Jays win the World Series more than anything when I was there. The way things have gone since that wonderful moment leads me to believe I made a deal that would have the Jays win that evening but be cursed ever since.
What ashame this had to happen to McGowan. I hope he can come back from this, but unfortunately there are no guarantees. It's too bad. All the best Dustin!
What ashame this had to happen to McGowan. I hope he can come back from this, but unfortunately there are no guarantees. It's too bad. All the best Dustin!
The Fisher Cats have called up Francisco Rosario, who is tabbed to start the homestand tomorrow in Manchester against the Mets.
Well, the warm weather is certainly here in the NE now.
Well, the warm weather is certainly here in the NE now.
The only solice that I can take from this, is how many other prospects we have in the system to keep our eyes on.
It's still a shame, but who knows, maybe he'll come back throwing harder than ever.
It's still a shame, but who knows, maybe he'll come back throwing harder than ever.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/040513mcgowan.html
COMN for the Baseball America article on the injury. Sounds like what we took for a lack of focus based on a potential promotion was the signs of an injury creeping up.
COMN for the Baseball America article on the injury. Sounds like what we took for a lack of focus based on a potential promotion was the signs of an injury creeping up.
I just heard the news via the RSN guys. As it was being announced, I spilled piping hot coffee all over my crotch.
So to recap, McGowan is hurt and it hurts when I move my legs. Worst. day. ever.
So to recap, McGowan is hurt and it hurts when I move my legs. Worst. day. ever.
Brent, forget your legs, is the important stuff OK?
I think the jays should put league and perkins in the starting rotation. There is enough bullpen help and relievers are easy to come by.
BTW, with these news the closest minor league starter experiencing success is banks... Bush, Arnold, and Rosario have all strugled.
why wouldn't he be promoted to AA instead of rosario is a real mistery. care to speculate
BTW, with these news the closest minor league starter experiencing success is banks... Bush, Arnold, and Rosario have all strugled.
why wouldn't he be promoted to AA instead of rosario is a real mistery. care to speculate
I feel fo rhim as a person, and I really do hope he gets better. As a Jays fan, though, I'm neither overly surprised nor overly upset.
1) Tommy John isn't really all that bad. They're getting pretty darn good at it. He's not lost, just delayed.
2) TINSTAAPP. Even if he's utterly gone, we all knew that one, at most two of our three major pitching prospects would make it. So did the Jays front office. While I'm sure they were hoping this wouldn't happen, I'm also sure that this is in the plan.
3) We have three serious middle infield prospects, plus O-Dog. And three serious outfield prospects, plus V-W. It's not like we're now totally out of ways to add pitching.
4) This organisation is probably one of the very best for him to get hurt in, and for him to rehab in. No 'rub some dirt on it' attitudes, I'm sure.
1) Tommy John isn't really all that bad. They're getting pretty darn good at it. He's not lost, just delayed.
2) TINSTAAPP. Even if he's utterly gone, we all knew that one, at most two of our three major pitching prospects would make it. So did the Jays front office. While I'm sure they were hoping this wouldn't happen, I'm also sure that this is in the plan.
3) We have three serious middle infield prospects, plus O-Dog. And three serious outfield prospects, plus V-W. It's not like we're now totally out of ways to add pitching.
4) This organisation is probably one of the very best for him to get hurt in, and for him to rehab in. No 'rub some dirt on it' attitudes, I'm sure.
I believe that Banks is not promoted yet due to the fact that he is facing the lowest level of competition of the names that you mentioned above. Also his numbers are starting to climb lately. I believe that he may get a chance to move if he has good numbers over an extended period of time. As far as Perkins, he is also on the DL at this time. He has also proven that he can not control the strike zone yet. It only gets worse for pitchers as they move up, if you can't control the zone at the low levels there is no way that you will get by with that stuff at the higher levels. I still say that Harper is your next guy up to AA. They just need to see him in some game situations in order to evaluate his progress in regards to the rehab. From the reports that I have heard, he is throwing well. He went 70 pitches in his latest outing in extended.If I am not mistaken, our guys are currently on 90 pitch count limits.
The FAN 590 guys just said that McGowan had a pre-existing tear in his elbow. JP says the yknew this was coming.
I was only half way through reading the column when it originally appeared on Tuesday before my laptop snapped it's medial collateral ligament and crashed. Today, I went back to check it out and I see Gammons has amended it to include the new McGowan development in his Notes column. Does he think this represents a scoop?
The FAN 590 guys just said that McGowan had a pre-existing tear in his elbow. JP says they knew this was coming.
His comments do seem very matter of factly in Fordin's piece tonight. This is my first real foray into the alter of TINSTAAPP, and i'm probably there to stay. Pity for the Jays, us, and Dustin.
The FAN 590 guys just said that McGowan had a pre-existing tear in his elbow. JP says they knew this was coming.
His comments do seem very matter of factly in Fordin's piece tonight. This is my first real foray into the alter of TINSTAAPP, and i'm probably there to stay. Pity for the Jays, us, and Dustin.
Brent, forget your legs, is the important stuff OK?
I certainly hope so. Or it might be a very long summer.
I certainly hope so. Or it might be a very long summer.
I certainly hope so. Or it might be a very long summer.
Or it might be very short for the summer
Or it might be very short for the summer
http://www.niceguyseeds.com
This news is terrible.
When I first saw it on the Blue Jays website I couldn't believe it. And JP said he knew it all along and was holding out on us. What's up with that jp?
I was getting so hyped up about his arrival in TO. OH well, this doesn't mean the playoff dream is dead just delayed.
Get well soon DM. Hopefully you come back like Kerry Woods and not Billy Koch.
This news is terrible.
When I first saw it on the Blue Jays website I couldn't believe it. And JP said he knew it all along and was holding out on us. What's up with that jp?
I was getting so hyped up about his arrival in TO. OH well, this doesn't mean the playoff dream is dead just delayed.
Get well soon DM. Hopefully you come back like Kerry Woods and not Billy Koch.
Dustin is a very determined young man to reach the majors. To him this is just a temporaly slow down in his time frame to toronto. I still believe that JP understands that this young mans talent overrides the injury. I expect dustin to pitch the last half of fall ball in arizona were the weather will not bother him with a limited pitch count. I also see dustin coming back refreshed and ready to continue to toronto. I always thought he would be there in the 2 half of `2006, and pitching every five days. Who knows, maybe this might be a blessing and the young man may never be hurt again. Just think jay fans if the kid could pitch hurt what we may see in the future could be awesome.