You know what drives me crazy more than ads on the walls on the playing field? It's when ESPN and FOX think they're being so clever by digitally inserting their own stadium ads behind the batters box. It's never seamless. The contrast is always twice than what is natural and there is always some digital residue blocking or discolouring Bernie Williams' torso (not that Bernie's torso is the reason I'm watching - but it's distracting, makes me pause without profit).

And did you see that God-awful coloured measuring stick FOX used for that Friday night Sox-Yankees game? Please tell me that was a one-time experiment!

Do you find it creepy when the managers are interviewed by the broadcasters in the dugout during the game?

KT, you find Bernie Williams's torso distracting? I have other viewing options to suggest for you... :)

On a slightly more (less?) serious note, one of today's Photoshop Contests at FARK.com features Eric Byrnes of the A's. Funny stuff.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/uclickcomics/cx_ft_uc/latest
Sorry, I couldn't resist. First I read the article about the Spider-man ads, and then I went over and read today's FoxTrot. I couldn't help but post a link to it. Very appropriate (though not quite baseball related, it does have some relation to the article)

COMN for the link

I think I'm tempted by the fruit of another. And if I'm not, then I certainly got that song wedged in my head for the rest of the day.

Fourty million points for jsoh, minus one million for misspelling "josh".

Studes' "Groundballs, Flyballs and Line Drives"

Mike Green linked to this yesterday, but I didn't get a chance to read it until last night. A really great study. There should be a lot more that comes out of this data in the future.

It's probably intuitive to some (or most perhaps), but it found it interesting that the factors that had the most impact on run scoring (in order) were:

* Line drives
* Walks/HBP
* Fly Balls

And groundballs and strikeouts had a negative impact on run scoring (especially strikeouts).

So for pitchers you want strikeout and groundballs, and for hitters just the opposite.

Jsoh, the song is squeezed, not wedged, into my head.

I highly recommend the article on Don Newcombe that Moffatt has linked to above.

How many points do you lose for mispelling forty?

I lose fourty points. :)

I think I'm tempted by the fruit of another.

Dammit I was 5 minutes away from that. It's even in a TV commercial.

For shame.

Go Pat!

Here might be a silly question about sacrifices: When the sabermetric research finds that it is better not to sacrifice, what exactly in their research do they consider a sacrifice? Sometimes you hear the broadcasters say: 'that will go down as a sacrifice' when you know the batter would have preferred, was hoping for, a seeing-eye single or some kind of base hit. I'm sure there are scores of sac-flies that were aspirant homeruns.

It seems to me there are two kinds of sacrifices:

1. When the better doesn't get the hit he wants, but his AB wasn't completely useless because he managed to move a runner over so his batting average doesn't suffer.

2. When the manager makes the call to sacrifice and the batter with naked ambition gives himself up and is either successful or unsuccessful in moving the runners, or may luck out with a hit.

Are both of these 'intentional' and 'unintentional' sacrifices counted together in sabermetric research? If so, now wonder that research shows it's better to never sacrifice. It's a bit like saying: 'it's better to be safe than to get tagged out'.

Keith, I don't think sabermetricians have ever said that the "sacrifice" bunt, where the batter bunts to reach base with a runner on first, and takes the sacrifice as a second option, is a poor percentage move. As Bill James pointed out in his original Historical Abstract, you would need to have a "bunt scattergram", how many times the batter reaches, how many times the runner is thrown out at second, how many times the batter is thrown out, and how many times the batter pops into a double play, to know whether it is a good move.

I do think that most sabermetricians have an issue with the telegraphed sacrifice unless the hitter is extremely poor (say a pitcher).

KT, I think the best research that has been done (done by Tom Tippett of Diamond Mind Baseball) studied only intentional sacrifices, and then only bunts. TT studied not only successful bunts, but also bunt attempts, and took hits, errors, forceouts, and double plays. I do not know if he took into consideration missed bunts that put the hitter in that ever-familiar 0-1 or 0-2 hole; I believe he did not.

TT found that in certain limited circumstances, the bunt was a good strategy. That coheres with my own analysis.

FREE TICKET ALERT

I have two tickets to Thursday's game against the Red Sox - First row of 526, which is a couple sections to the third base side of home plate. Unfortunately, I'll be in Michigan, so I can't go. Who wants them? I live in Waterloo and work in Kitchener, so we can meet up in the general area or you can tell me your UPS account number. COMN to e-mail me.

Pistol, I e-mailed studes concerning the categorization of pop-ups. They, as well as home runs, are classified as fly balls. Michael Humphreys in his Defensive Regression Analysis points out that 98% of pop-ups are caught, and he accordingly attributes them to the pitcher, as one might for a strikeout. studes agrees and will be trying to break it down a bit with help from baseball info solutions.

Damn. A second look at the lyrics and I actually had it but beaten to the punch again.

Thanks for those responses. I hate wasting outs as well and understand why Tosca and JP don't really like small ball and play for the big inning.

That said, I think small-ball training is important for the big inning. I'm speaking of smart base-running here. During this hot streak the Jays have been excellent on the base paths.

A team that never sacrifices might not appreciate as well the risk/reward of taking bases or wisely staying put. These Jays of May now look like they've had an education in base-running, let's hope it sticks.

How many points does Rusty lose for misspelling misspelling?

Forty

They've been ripping into Cowley this morning on the Fan 590, and made him Dink of the Day. Landry suggested he should go back to writing apartment notices.

Bah. Its impossible to misspell my own name! Josh would be the good twin
who doesnt spend all day canoodling around on baseball websites. Jsoh is
quite obviously the evil one who does :)

I regret that I'll be unable to attend the Will Carroll shindig at Indigo tonight; instead, we're doing something about this kids-not-loving-baseball thing. My wife has volunteered to coach a girl's team in Brampton and I'm tagging along to be of debateable assistance. After all, my baseball knowledge is not quite as deep as my coffee mug. ;)

Say hi to Will from the Cheer Club for me.

And in Nutty Obsessive Behavior news, the Jays are apparently responding well to both the Hammer and the Ten Run Hat. The Cursed Hat will apparently live in the closet for the rest of time.

" They've been ripping into Cowley this morning on the Fan 590, and made him Dink of the Day. Landry suggested he should go back to writing apartment notices."

Good this Jow Cowley character deserves it !

Bob Elliot said last night that one of the TV guys was saying on the weekend that he was going to punch out this Cowley , which would have not made a wrong a right.

Joe Cowley = No Class !!!

Landry said that it was a good thing that there were no more Chicago visits to Toronto this year, because if Cowley sat for the anthem again he'd throw him over the side of the press box.

John Neary and others including me had a discussion after last year regarding Kevin Cash. John pointed out that it was statistically unlikely that a .240 hitter would hit as poorly as Kevin did last year. I countered that Cash was particularly unlucky last year (that was true), and we'd best wait for a larger sample.

Well, we now have that larger sample. Over his career, Kevin is hitting .184 in 206 ABs. While he is hitting .244 this year, he has been as lucky this year (.328 BABIP for a catcher) as he was unlucky last year. He is striking out more often this year than he did last, and hitting for just a little more power. It seems clear to me that right now he's a .210-.230 hitter.

In the minors, he had more power and patience than he has shown to date in the majors. Whether the power and patience develops will determine his future.

In short, John, you were basically right.

206 AB is still not a large sample. We must also remember that a hitter's ability, particularly in his first few years of major league baseball is highly susceptible to change.

I can remember the turning point in Cash's big-league hitting career. It was that game in - was it Boston? - bases loaded (I think), late in the game, perhaps two outs and Tosca did not pinch-hit for the sub-.200 Cash. I couldn't believe Cash was batting with the game in the balance. He cleared the bases with a double and has been hot ever since.

The details are fuzzy, maybe someone else can better remember, but that was the AB that did it.

Robert, you're right. I remembered that Carlos Delgado had started off his major league career slowly in 94-95, but I'd forgotten how long it continued for. In his first 221 ABs, he was hitting .195 for his career and striking out (and of course, homering) much more often than Cash. Of course, he was much younger then than Cash is now.

Cash is pretty much guaranteed another 200 ABs through August, and we'll have an even better idea of where he stands then.

Byung-Hyun Kim: Gammons say that they Red Sox want to move him.
I know, makes too much money, is said to be throwing only 86 MPH at the moment....
OK, but I think we need a closer, and I think we still have a chance for this season. Look at the numbers Kim put up when he was a closer.
His troubles are only there when he starts.
Question: would the Sox take Lightenberg and Berg for Kim ? Should we do it ?
I think yes, I think the guy would be a great closer for us.

Do we want to be tinkering with the 'pen in the midst of a winning streak?

There's no way the Red Sox make that trade.

What I was wondering as I watched last night's game was how much the quality of the announcers affect the ratings and to some degree the attendance at the Dome. My thinking is that for the most part no matter how bad their performance is the diehard fans (like the ones you find here) will watch regardless due to their passion for the club.

My thinking is that someone with a casual interest in the team, when faced with bothersome media will avoid it after a while, even if it means not getting to watch. If it's something like a newspaper column with which the fan disagrees with, the viewer/reader can either find other sources of information, or simply choose not to read it any longer. However, when there is only one source to watch the team from, especially the medium of television, at what point does the casual fan decide they can't put up with it anymore?

Seeing them talking with Carter last night only reinforced what I thought of them but never realized until yesterday: Cerutti and Faulds are cheesy, corny, and lame. I don't mind that they have difficulty grasping the concepts of the game, but after all this time together I would think they would know how to converse in a more timely and relevant manner. At this point I'm wondering how much more credibility it gives a broadcast to have a MLB veteran doing colour.

I suppose what I'm really getting at with this is whether proportionately increases/decreases in ratings have a direct effect on attendance. If people can't be bothered with the announcers to watch does this in turn affect their passion for the team, and subsequently the likelihood they'll buy tickets?

/tirade

Personally I've found Faulds to be a lot more engaging this season. He seems like he's having more fun and not just there as a contractual obligation.

Cerrutti still seems pretty sour most of the time. Candiotti, while not as smooth as either Faulds or Cerrutti, seemed to be having a whale of a time and presented his observations in what I found to be instantly accessable ways. A couple of the Faulds/Candiotti games in the Twins series were really great, and they seemed more comfortable together than Faulds and Cerrutti.

I don't think that it's time to axe the broadcast team or anything like that. I think that if Cerrutti were a little more relaxed and sounded like he was having a little more fun, they'd be a lot more engaging as a pair.

I switched to the radio for the second half of last night's game (we had to drive somewhere) so I missed a lot of Joe Carter in the booth with them. He was fine for the first inning, IMO. Did it get worse after that?

I feel I'm alone in this opinion, but I really like Cerutti. And I agree with everything Named For Hank said, this year both Faulds and Candiotti have been much better, funnier. And how about that Jamie Campbell guy who does the updates on the weekends, he's dynamite.

I enjoyed Joe Carter as guest, but remember how brutal it was when we were forced to listen to him everyday. Cerutti's a vast improvement.

I really enjoyed how both Faulds and Cerutti ganged up on Carter in the 9th when Carter implied that it was poor sportsmanship for KC's Harvey to swipe 2nd uncontested with his team down by 6 runs.

Mike, can you explain what you mean that Cash has been particularly lucky this year with reference to his .328 avg on BABIP? I'm familiar with DIPS, and I can accept that Cash seems to have gotten lucky this year when looking at his past totals, both major and minor leagues. However, are you implying that BABIP is supposed to hover around a constant for hitters as well? I've not heard that claim before.

Do you think they're grooming Warren Sakiw (did I spell that right, or is there another w in there?) to take over colour on the broadcasts?

Hey, Joe Lis, are you THE Joe Lis?

Lis was one of my favorite players as a kid (see my bio on the Roster page for proof of that) ... and if not him, just curious -- why opt for that particular pseudonym?

However, are you implying that BABIP is supposed to hover around a constant for hitters as well? I've not heard that claim before.

BABIP generally hovers around a certain area for each player, although not the same area for every player.

I also much prefer Candiotti over Cerutti. I find Candiotti often presents nice insight into the game, whereas Cerutti tends to stick to cliches. I'm not sure why this is, as Cerutti definately has enough ML experience where I'm sure he could tell us things we don't already know. Maybe he just thinks thats what the viewers want to hear, which is unfortunate.

However, when there is only one source to watch the team from, especially the medium of television, at what point does the casual fan decide they can't put up with it anymore?

I usually stop listening when the announcers are obnoxious, like the White Sox announcers this past weekend, or if they continue to say dumb things. I'll turn the sound off on a Sunday night game when Joe Morgan starts in with his usual analysis.

I live in Connecticut and get Boston channels. I don't watch the Celtics because Tommy Heinsohn is such a homer and whines all game. On the other hand I can't get enough of Jerry Remy so I end up watching a lot of Red Sox games. If I'm indifferent to the broadcasters I'll watch if the game itself is interesting.

Hey
Sorry, I am actually not that Joe Lis, am just a diehard Jays fan from Germany. But once saw Joe Lis in a Minor League game and rooted for him ever since, because he was so scrappy. Too bad he never made it to the bigs.

And hence you're saying that since Cash's has historically been much lower it's very likely that he is playing above his head, so far. That makes sense, and its basically what I thought was being said. I just wanted to clarify. Thanks.

Do you think they're grooming Warren Sakiw (did I spell that right, or is there another w in there?) to take over colour on the broadcasts?

Is he that guy with the ridiculous, glued-on grin? He really needs to tone it down, if I'm thinking of the right guy (gelled, Canadian baseball Olympian).

Candiotti is good once in a while. He runs out of material though and repeats himself.

One of my favourite moments from last year was when Cerutti held his restraint each time the camera focussed on the spectating, voodoo-doll-stroking Dave Kingman for the first five innings of Maroth's 20th losing start of the year at SkyDome. He then snapped once it was obvious Maroth was going to lose. He made it certain that we all knew how pissed he was, how tacky Kingman is.

Is he that guy with the ridiculous, glued-on grin?

Aw, he's just having fun being on TV.

He's a little overenthusiastic, but I think that's just nerves.

He made it certain that we all knew how pissed he was, how tacky Kingman is.

If he'd do that more often, be so passionate about something, then I'd like him a lot more. I still have "Now this, this is a game of missed opportunities" in my head from the week where he said it like six dozen times.

Actually, Thomas, I wasn't suggesting that BABIP fluctuates more or less that batting average. I was merely pointing out that Cash's BABIP was exceptionally low last year and has been very high this year, and would almost surely end up somewhere in the middle. .327 is a very high BABIP for a catcher not particularly skilled at hitting line drives and not particularly fast.

To give you a flavour of this, I checked out the career of Don Slaught (a catcher I picked pretty much at random from my head). He had a career batting average of .283 and a career BABIP of .306. In his worst year for batting average, he hit .224 and his BABIP was .242. In his best year, he hit .345 and his BABIP was .362. Curiously, his best year was when he was well over 30, and his worst year was in his prime. He was a fine line-drive hitter, who rarely struck out.

Can we bring an old Prospectus to the signing or is that considered bad form? I've never been to one before.

Is Towers still with the organization?

To answer my own question I guess if Mr. Carroll is taking the time to come to Toronto the least I can do is buy a BP or his new book.

CowleyGate has made ESPNRadio. According to the Dan "The Duke" Davis, Paul Godfrey has refused an apology from Cowley over the incident.

As much as I wish this thing would go away, I admire Godfrey for taking a stand. Good job Paul.

NFH, yes, Towers cleared waivers and is on the Syracuse roster.

Does anyone have a link to the bunting article by Tippett referenced in this article?

Landry said that it was a good thing that there were no more Chicago visits to Toronto this year, because if Cowley sat for the anthem again he'd throw him over the side of the press box.

This seems like a rather dim approach. Natives have shown far better restraint over lines like "...our home and native land..." as well as that whole Europeans coming and arbitrarily colonizing their land thing (not to say it's been a totally passive approach but all things considered...). Point being, physical threats and cursing probably aren't going to change this guy's approach to living. If something meaningful were to happen, in my mind, it would come from his employer in the form of a demotion (obviously he can't handle the responsibility of covering a baseball team) and a manditory anti-oppression training (then ignorance isn't an excuse).

CowleyGate has made ESPNRadio. According to the Dan "The Duke" Davis, Paul Godfrey has refused an apology from Cowley over the incident.

As much as I wish this thing would go away, I admire Godfrey for taking a stand. Good job Paul.

Does the BBWAA have a code of conduct?

Chances are, Cowley has violated it. It would be sweet if he lost his voting priveleges over this...

Agreed. When the National Guard made an extremely careless but probably honest mistake in the 1992 World Series it was right to forgive them and the solution worked out there for game 3 was admirable. With the extent of Cowley's actions and his comments a simple apology won't cut it, and I too admire Godfrey for saying to Cowley that he can't take back what he said and did.

I was just reading about Joe Cowley before this all happened - he suffered a bout of wildness in 1987 that was so bad, his home fans in Philadelphia basically booed him out of baseball.

I don't particularly care that Cowley said bad things about Canada, even if he called us a third-world country. (Heck, there are commentators in Canada who do the same thing.) But not standing for the national anthem is a bit uncool - I suspect he'd go postal if a Canadian were to go to a U.S. park and not stand for the American national anthem. As Miss Manners says, it never hurts to be polite. :-)

Heck, there are commentators in Canada who do the same thing.

There are political leaders in Canada who do the same thing. Repeatedly. Gleefully.

I'm not fussed about Cowley, callow though he is. He's a punk; I try not to get exercised about punks unless they are punkin' in my face. If I were standing enxt to Cowley, I'd give him what's for... otherwise, I can't be bothered.

"I was just reading about Joe Cowley before this all happened - he suffered a bout of wildness in 1987 that was so bad, his home fans in Philadelphia basically booed him out of baseball."

Dave , this is a different Joe Cowley. Yes there are 2 different Joe Cowley.