They're winning in blowouts, they're winning in come-from-behind fashion --- the main thing is, they're winning. The Blue Jays look like they're starting to come together. The starters have reeled off five good starts in a row, the bullpen's anxiety attacks appear to be easing, the batters are starting to find their groove, and the manager appears to be steadying himself. This could be bad news collectively for a league that was rightly concerned about the Blue Jays' potential coming into the season. The Jays face another lefty today in Scott Schoeneweis, which unfortunately means Dave Berg is in left field today and batting second. On the hill for Toronto is Miguel Batista, the only winless starter left in the rotation and one who is long overdue for a solid seven innings and a victory.
Wilner says he think Alex Rios will be in Toronto in the next six weeks.
Good start and El Artista is up to 96 on the gun. I have a good feeling.
Did anyone else see Aaron and Andrew at the beginning of the telecast? I think they've become stock footage now.
Because he hit .304 and slugged .506 against lefties last year.
Okay, it's not a great reason, but it's why Tosca is doing it.
Okay, it's not a great reason, but it's why Tosca is doing it.
Good to see Chicago hasn't learned not to run when Cash is behind the plate.
Anyone listening to the Chicago commentary on mlb.tv - currently they are slating the OBP philosophy that toronto and oakland has.....oh yeah W00t for the double by wells!
The Chicago commentators are ragging on the moneyball philosophy again, claiming that not letting Johnson run is wasting his talent.
They really are the most unprofessional pair I've heard. They don't even pretend the least bit of impartiality. As the ball goes over one of their fielder's head they call "go on, catch it!". Pathetic.
They really are the most unprofessional pair I've heard. They don't even pretend the least bit of impartiality. As the ball goes over one of their fielder's head they call "go on, catch it!". Pathetic.
Because he hit .304 and slugged .506 against lefties last year.
Out of interest, how many AB/PA did he have against lefties? I would have thought that this year's .167 v lefties would start to bring it back.
Where do you get this data from, anyway? I can only find limited stats on the mlb website.
Out of interest, how many AB/PA did he have against lefties? I would have thought that this year's .167 v lefties would start to bring it back.
Where do you get this data from, anyway? I can only find limited stats on the mlb website.
nice pitch by Batista - As the Chicago commentators would say "He gone!" (in the voice of a donkey of course)
Remind me: why is Berg batting 2nd?
Had he batted Gomez second, he'd be stuck with him in the 2-hole for the whole game, even when the inevitable RH reliever was brought in. Having Berg bat second means that his eventual replacement, Catalanotto, will take over the 2-hole.
And MM is right, Berg hit LHP well last year, though of course he ain't hittin' nobody this year.
The Chicago commentators are ragging on the moneyball philosophy again, claiming that not letting Johnson run is wasting his talent.
And right after they witnessed a Sox inning torn apart by small ball. Uribe attempts and fails to bunt on 0-1, running the count to 0-2, placing him in a deep hole. And then Harris gets gunned down trying to steal.
Had he batted Gomez second, he'd be stuck with him in the 2-hole for the whole game, even when the inevitable RH reliever was brought in. Having Berg bat second means that his eventual replacement, Catalanotto, will take over the 2-hole.
And MM is right, Berg hit LHP well last year, though of course he ain't hittin' nobody this year.
The Chicago commentators are ragging on the moneyball philosophy again, claiming that not letting Johnson run is wasting his talent.
And right after they witnessed a Sox inning torn apart by small ball. Uribe attempts and fails to bunt on 0-1, running the count to 0-2, placing him in a deep hole. And then Harris gets gunned down trying to steal.
Out of interest, how many AB/PA did he have against lefties? I would have thought that this year's .167 v lefties would start to bring it back.
Only 79. That's why it's not a great reason. His three year split is a more pedestrian 264/310/384 in 242ABs.
Source: ESPN.
Only 79. That's why it's not a great reason. His three year split is a more pedestrian 264/310/384 in 242ABs.
Source: ESPN.
Cerutti has more marbles than ususal in his mouth today!
Thanks for that link Mike.
Here's today's interesting stats lesson. Last year Berg hit .304 v lefties and .207 v righties (this is BA). This was out of 79 and 82 at bats respectively. Sounds like a bit split?
Assume the standard binomial model of hitting. According to my literally back-of-envelope calculations (which therefore might contain an error), this split is not statistically significant. That almost .100 difference is quite possibly just due to chance! A good lesson in sample size effects -160 ABs is still a small sample, for all that it "sounds" quite big.
(This takes no account of his long-term splits. Over three years there's no appreciable difference in BA. This tends to suggest that my conclusion is correct.)
Here's today's interesting stats lesson. Last year Berg hit .304 v lefties and .207 v righties (this is BA). This was out of 79 and 82 at bats respectively. Sounds like a bit split?
Assume the standard binomial model of hitting. According to my literally back-of-envelope calculations (which therefore might contain an error), this split is not statistically significant. That almost .100 difference is quite possibly just due to chance! A good lesson in sample size effects -160 ABs is still a small sample, for all that it "sounds" quite big.
(This takes no account of his long-term splits. Over three years there's no appreciable difference in BA. This tends to suggest that my conclusion is correct.)
Okay, Berg sucks and Gomez sucks. One will stay in the whole game and one will be replaced by Catalanotto around the 6th inning. Better to bury Gomez in the 9-hole.
YAY - Go wells!
yeah that darn OBP strategy isn't really working is it........
yeah that darn OBP strategy isn't really working is it........
You can thank Johnson for that Wells double. Schoeneweis is approaching 30 pitches this inning, and he looks like he's getting a little gassed. He left one right over the plate to Wells and he ripped it.
Now, he just hit Delgado after missing with two pitches, and then served one up to Phelpsy.
Now, he just hit Delgado after missing with two pitches, and then served one up to Phelpsy.
Lifetime OBA/SA/OPS versus lefthanders: Catalanatto, .315/.320/.635; Berg, .314/.367/.681. So, no difference in on-base abilities and all of the difference in SA due to Berg connecting for the occasional HR. (Berg has had 7 HRs in 474 at bats and Cat 1 HR in 225 at bats). So, Berg is playing twice a week on the assumption he might connect for a couple more HRs than Cat. You know what - I'll take my chances on the Cat.
Did Faulds and Cerrutti mention the white tape or the chalk on Cash's fingers?
BirdWatcher, I'm not a huge fan of Berg being a platoon LF, but to add to your numbers that show that Catalanotto and Berg having similar lifetime stats vs LHP, it should be noted that Schoenweiss is noted for his huge platoon split (which got him turfed from Anaheim's rotation). He's much more effective against LHB than RHB.
Ordonez and Thomas must be getting frustrated watching small ball continually erase men on base in front of them (and yes, I treat the Harris pick-off as a byproduct of small ball).
Ordonez and Thomas must be getting frustrated watching small ball continually erase men on base in front of them (and yes, I treat the Harris pick-off as a byproduct of small ball).
So, if you use Berg's most recent 3 year splits (probably more representative of his current abilites), then it's a no-brainer. Cat should be out there everyday, with Berg moved to open up a roster spot. By the way, Yahoo also carries historical MLB stats at: http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/
Well that wasn't suppose to happen......
2 - 2 game
2 - 2 game
Through 7, Miguel Batista has thrown 85 pitches. I think I'd leave him out there to start the 8th. What do others think?
Go, O-Dog.
Go, O-Dog.
Slightly concerned how Frasor is getting behind in the count.
A nice 2 run blast from Delgado would make things much better.....
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Folks,
Please read the Batter's Box FAQ; in particular, the "Ground Rules" section. Don't pretend to be somebody you're not.
Folks,
Please read the Batter's Box FAQ; in particular, the "Ground Rules" section. Don't pretend to be somebody you're not.
Carlos Tosca's use of one-run strategies has been much better than Guillen's. Putting on the hit and run with Hudson on 1st, 1 out in a 2-2 game in the 7th with Gomez at bat, and Johnson and Berg to follow, makes sense.
Problem with the mlb.tv angle is that they dont have a camera down the line so you can't see if it is fair or foul.
*Very* inconclusive TV replay, at least as far as mlb.tv quality goes.
Why does Tosca bother arguing? It's never going to change now.
Why does Tosca bother arguing? It's never going to change now.
I'm watching the Sox broadcast and it was clearly foul. I think Tosca had to argue for the sake of arguing.
Now to shut the door on them. Adams or Ligtenburg?
Can i ask probably a silly and obvious question - Why is Frasor credited with the win?
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I'm not sure if the Cheer Club was at this game, but it sure seemed like it. I heard long, loud cheers of CAAAARRRRRR-LOOOOOOS earlier in the game, and the clapping and cheering for even the second out of the 9th inning was "unusually" loud.
It was awesome, and I wish I had been there.
I'm not sure if the Cheer Club was at this game, but it sure seemed like it. I heard long, loud cheers of CAAAARRRRRR-LOOOOOOS earlier in the game, and the clapping and cheering for even the second out of the 9th inning was "unusually" loud.
It was awesome, and I wish I had been there.
Frasor gets the win cause he was the current pitcher when Phelps hit the go ahead home run. Had the Jays got a run in the previous inning was Batista was still the pitcher, the Batista would have gotten the win.
Why is Frasor credited with the win?
He was the pitcher when the Jays took the lead.
He was the pitcher when the Jays took the lead.
Batista has made four quality starts with no wins. That includes two starts with 7 innings and 2 runs allowed and one with 7+ innings and 2 runs allowed.
I thought the Jays plate discipline with a few exceptions was atrocious today. It's a good thing they got some well timed two out hits because they were helping the opposing pitchers out by chasing bad pitches even when they were ahead in the count.
Josh Phelps has shown that if nothing else he is a mistake hitter. I think his strike zone judgement especially inside has a ways to go but if you leave a pitch in the middle of the zone to him chances are you'll pay for it. Hopefully he gets his power stroke going because they really need power outside of Wells and Delgado.
I thought the Jays plate discipline with a few exceptions was atrocious today. It's a good thing they got some well timed two out hits because they were helping the opposing pitchers out by chasing bad pitches even when they were ahead in the count.
Josh Phelps has shown that if nothing else he is a mistake hitter. I think his strike zone judgement especially inside has a ways to go but if you leave a pitch in the middle of the zone to him chances are you'll pay for it. Hopefully he gets his power stroke going because they really need power outside of Wells and Delgado.
Great W. There's nothing like a couple of series wins to get the ship righted. Batista deserved the win, but I was still impressed with his outing. He looked aggressive and in control for the most part.
Hopefully May will bring much better luck the Jays way. Maybe 20 wins or so. What? It could happen.
Hopefully May will bring much better luck the Jays way. Maybe 20 wins or so. What? It could happen.
For all Wells' struggles this year he looks to be on something of a roll. Plus, he's on pace to draw 78 walks this year, which would be a massive improvement (almost double last year's 42).
At the game they didn't show Phelps' "first home run" on the jumbotron. I take it that it was clearly foul? Looked it to me.
First time I have ever heard the fireworks twice in one at bat though.
First time I have ever heard the fireworks twice in one at bat though.
Didn't MGL point out in a thread on Baseball Primer earlier this year that there is essentially zero correlation between batters' yeat-to-year platoon splits? If so, what is the relevance of Berg's platoon splits?
I'd throw in a link at this point, but Primer's site redesign seems to have stranded all of their old content. Oh, what the hell, here is the link, in case you know how to find the article from it.
I'd throw in a link at this point, but Primer's site redesign seems to have stranded all of their old content. Oh, what the hell, here is the link, in case you know how to find the article from it.
I think Tosca had to argue for the sake of arguing.
Pretty much. He kept asking the 1st base ump 'why did you call that'.
Didn't MGL point out in a thread on Baseball Primer earlier this year that there is essentially zero correlation between batters' yeat-to-year platoon splits?
Without researching anything I thought that discussion applied only to RH batters.
So is 2004 looking exactly like 2003?
Pretty much. He kept asking the 1st base ump 'why did you call that'.
Didn't MGL point out in a thread on Baseball Primer earlier this year that there is essentially zero correlation between batters' yeat-to-year platoon splits?
Without researching anything I thought that discussion applied only to RH batters.
So is 2004 looking exactly like 2003?
Aaron and Andrew at the beginning of the telecast?
Me? Or another Andrew? Either way, what's the footage?
Me? Or another Andrew? Either way, what's the footage?
Me? Or another Andrew? Either way, what's the footage?
It was a repeat of the clip they showed last night of you guys holding the "Forget April" sign. Aaron mentioned it in message 37 of last night's thread.
Hannah spotted it instantly saying "Hey, we know them!" :)
If so, what is the relevance of Berg's platoon splits?
I have a feeling it's the basis of Tosca's moves. So it's a positive explanation rather than a normative one.
It was a repeat of the clip they showed last night of you guys holding the "Forget April" sign. Aaron mentioned it in message 37 of last night's thread.
Hannah spotted it instantly saying "Hey, we know them!" :)
If so, what is the relevance of Berg's platoon splits?
I have a feeling it's the basis of Tosca's moves. So it's a positive explanation rather than a normative one.
did THE HAMMER OF WISDOM make it into any of these "Forget April" shots?
Wow, cool!!! I'm stock footage!
Incidentally, the HAMMER OF WISDOM seems to be a resounding success, what with the four-game-and-counting run and all.
Incidentally, the HAMMER OF WISDOM seems to be a resounding success, what with the four-game-and-counting run and all.
Nice outing by Batista today. He almost has his ERA lower than the "Kratz line" (ERA of minor league catcher Eric Kratz (4.50))
did THE HAMMER OF WISDOM make it into any of these "Forget April" shots?
I'm not sure... it's a very short clip. They played it right at the beginning of the broadcast. It looked like there was a third person there, which may or may not have been you. :)
I'm not sure... it's a very short clip. They played it right at the beginning of the broadcast. It looked like there was a third person there, which may or may not have been you. :)
The Jays should only worry about chasing themselves at this point. They are six games behind the .500 mark. If they can make up those six games on themselves by the end of May then they'll be in a position to make a competitive season out of this, just in time for the summer months. That's a lot to make up in three weeks but if they win each series they'll get there.
I've been at the last two games, my first two of the season, and I've been really impressed with the Jays. Some comments:
Noise in the Dome: Getting better. I was at the infamous game last year where the Jays got hammered by the A's, and the place went nuts for pizza after Sturtze got that 7th K. I've just started going to Jays games the last two years, and that's the loudest I've ever heard the place. Embarrasing, yet highly amusing. In any event, it seems to be getting better. Kudos to those of you around here who are trying to push this forward-I've gotten shushed at Jays games three times in the past 12 months, and Torontonians need to learn that this isn't a theatre.
Batista: Looked really, really good today. Bit of a crime that he doesn't have a win yet, but he's definitely coming together.
Hinske: I'm not really wild about him. He looks awkward when he throws-there was mention of his weak throw in the first today, but there were others like it. It looks like he's pushing the ball as he throws it. I'm guessing that the Jays don't want to mess with his confidence, but he looks like he could benefit from serious remedial work on how one throws a baseball. I have a bit of a serious dislike because of his weight last year, but he also really seemed to be chatting up the Jr. Jay, which was nice of him.
I've got a ton more I'd like to say, but I'm guessing this a dead thread. Two questions, if anyone reads this. One, I'd like to read a good primer on the stats that all the stat heads talk about. I've read Moneyball and am down with all that, but some of the stats like VORP etc, I just have no idea about. Where should I be looking? Two, I was at the game Friday night, and saw Scott Carson (Sportsnet) get tossed from where he was sitting behind the dugout. He seemed seriously pissed off about it. Anyone know why he'd be so pissed or where he usually sits?
Noise in the Dome: Getting better. I was at the infamous game last year where the Jays got hammered by the A's, and the place went nuts for pizza after Sturtze got that 7th K. I've just started going to Jays games the last two years, and that's the loudest I've ever heard the place. Embarrasing, yet highly amusing. In any event, it seems to be getting better. Kudos to those of you around here who are trying to push this forward-I've gotten shushed at Jays games three times in the past 12 months, and Torontonians need to learn that this isn't a theatre.
Batista: Looked really, really good today. Bit of a crime that he doesn't have a win yet, but he's definitely coming together.
Hinske: I'm not really wild about him. He looks awkward when he throws-there was mention of his weak throw in the first today, but there were others like it. It looks like he's pushing the ball as he throws it. I'm guessing that the Jays don't want to mess with his confidence, but he looks like he could benefit from serious remedial work on how one throws a baseball. I have a bit of a serious dislike because of his weight last year, but he also really seemed to be chatting up the Jr. Jay, which was nice of him.
I've got a ton more I'd like to say, but I'm guessing this a dead thread. Two questions, if anyone reads this. One, I'd like to read a good primer on the stats that all the stat heads talk about. I've read Moneyball and am down with all that, but some of the stats like VORP etc, I just have no idea about. Where should I be looking? Two, I was at the game Friday night, and saw Scott Carson (Sportsnet) get tossed from where he was sitting behind the dugout. He seemed seriously pissed off about it. Anyone know why he'd be so pissed or where he usually sits?
We're stock footage!
Geez, do I even need to cart the sign around anymore? ;)
Looking at it ever so briefly last night, I think it was from right at the beginning of the game, because Vanessa wasn't beside me (she showed up late).
Who thinks I need to make four or five more hammers? It's the best thing I've ever made!
Geez, do I even need to cart the sign around anymore? ;)
Looking at it ever so briefly last night, I think it was from right at the beginning of the game, because Vanessa wasn't beside me (she showed up late).
Who thinks I need to make four or five more hammers? It's the best thing I've ever made!
I've gotten shushed at Jays games three times in the past 12 months, and Torontonians need to learn that this isn't a theatre.
Remind them that they're at a ballgame. That's what I do.
Who's meeting me in 518 tomorrow? COMN or post.
Remind them that they're at a ballgame. That's what I do.
Who's meeting me in 518 tomorrow? COMN or post.
Mudcrutch, our own Jonny German assembled the Where's Where of Baseball Stats this winter, with convenient links to just about every Internet resource.
Scott Carson usually sits in the TV broadcast booth, where he provides stats to the announcers, so I don't know why he would have been in the 100 level. Could it be a case of mistaken identity?
First time I have ever heard the fireworks twice in one at bat though.
For sure. After work this afternoon, I was able to catch the eighth and ninth innings in a downtown pub. The other patrons thought I was a little odd when I went through the ecstacy and agony of Phelps' overturned "homer," then they were sure I was nuts when I jumped up and down punching the air after Josh did it again. What a heroic at-bat!
Duty calls again tomorrow, so I won't get to see any of the Jays game, but weather permitting, I'll drop by Christie Pits for the Leafs opening ceremonies and a couple of innings of Intercounty ball.
Scott Carson usually sits in the TV broadcast booth, where he provides stats to the announcers, so I don't know why he would have been in the 100 level. Could it be a case of mistaken identity?
First time I have ever heard the fireworks twice in one at bat though.
For sure. After work this afternoon, I was able to catch the eighth and ninth innings in a downtown pub. The other patrons thought I was a little odd when I went through the ecstacy and agony of Phelps' overturned "homer," then they were sure I was nuts when I jumped up and down punching the air after Josh did it again. What a heroic at-bat!
Duty calls again tomorrow, so I won't get to see any of the Jays game, but weather permitting, I'll drop by Christie Pits for the Leafs opening ceremonies and a couple of innings of Intercounty ball.
MONEYBALL -- Zito, Mulder, Hudson? Need I say more, goodness how could anyone rag on Moneyball?
Last season the Marlins led the league in stolen bases and comitted the 2nd fewest errors and were in the middle of the pack in OBP...better come up with some new theories for you guys to talk about...uhm?
No posting as a famous person (expect if you are that person) is allowed.
The Marlins finished middle of the pack in runs scored as well. When McKeon took over they stole a lot less and played much better.
The Marlins finished middle of the pack in runs scored as well. When McKeon took over they stole a lot less and played much better.
The Marlins won because a couple of young guys named Beckett and Willis stepped up and pitched like aces for most of the year. Their third through fifth starters weren't bad either. Good things can happen when you have a manager who doesn't blow out your best arms through overuse.
If the Jays get two young arms like that producing in the second half of this year then good things can happen for them as well. It looks like Miller could be one of them. Maybe Bush or McGowan could be the second arm.
If the Jays get two young arms like that producing in the second half of this year then good things can happen for them as well. It looks like Miller could be one of them. Maybe Bush or McGowan could be the second arm.
Just updating the previous posts, Marlins were 17th in baseball in runs scored last year.
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Let me reiterate my point, and expand on Robert's.
DO NOT post as anybody you're not, famous or not. Feel free to invent a nickname. Here are some suggestions: "Jays Fan"; "Yankees Fan"; "Donald Duck".
People wrote both "Bill James" and "Carlos Tosca" in the Name field when posting a comment in this thread; one or two of these comments have been deleted, but not all. Batter's Box forbids doing this, so please desist.
Let me reiterate my point, and expand on Robert's.
DO NOT post as anybody you're not, famous or not. Feel free to invent a nickname. Here are some suggestions: "Jays Fan"; "Yankees Fan"; "Donald Duck".
People wrote both "Bill James" and "Carlos Tosca" in the Name field when posting a comment in this thread; one or two of these comments have been deleted, but not all. Batter's Box forbids doing this, so please desist.
Pistol: You're right, the study was just on right-handed batters, and I'd forgotten that. However, Berg *is* a right-handed batter, so I think my point still stands. His platoon splits are irrelevant unless there's something wrong with MGL's study.