I began putting together these monthly Farm Reports last April. The impetus, at least in part, came from the need for some distraction from the Blue Jays’ terrible start. Plus ca change. Anyway, that first report a year ago featured some excellent news about several players having breakout seasons, including such up-till-then disappointments as Guillermo Quiroz and Alexis Rios. There are plenty of good-news stories in this year’s inaugural farm report, too (all stats current to April 30). I hope you enjoy this instalment.
I’d also like to issue what is fast becoming my patented cautionary preface. Thanks to the tremendous work of our minor-league writers John Neary, Steve Z and Gerry McDonald (who also have helped finalize this report), Batter’s Box readers have been treated to daily updates on the status of dozens of Blue Jay prospects. The ensuing discussions of these updates and these prospects have been detailed and insightful, and I’d like to thank everyone who participates. I don’t know of any fan site that keeps its readers so well informed on the organization’s farm system.
But if there’s a downside to the depth of our coverage, it would be the risk we all run of over-analyzing these same prospects, of focusing the microscope too tightly. One month is not enough time to make substantive judgments about anyone’s skills or potential, regardless of their vocation, and minor-league baseball players are far from the exception. Nobody on this list has even 100 at-bats or 50 innings pitched, and all these sample sizes are so small that they’re only reliably to be used as directional indicators, pointers as to progress rather than conclusions as to ability. In short, don’t jump to conclusions, good or bad. A lot can change in a month, and usually does.
AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
Russ Adams, SS, 23
2004 Syracuse
76 AB, .237/.359/.368, 5 R, 8 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 13 BB, 7 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
It’s a pretty decent start in the International League for the former first-rounder. The hits haven’t started falling in yet, but his strike-zone command is extremely good, and that bodes very well. He’s a few multi-hit games away from the .280ish average that he will carry around with him for his career. The real test for Adams here will be whether he can handle shortstop defensively; after a slew of errors early, he’s been steadier lately. With Chris Woodward playing much better ahead of him and Aaron Hill off to a slow start behind him, Adams should feel no pressure and ought to be given most of the season in Syracuse to develop more fully.
Jason Arnold, SP, 24
2004 Syracuse
1-2, 4.35, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 22 H, 7 BB, 11 K, 3 HR
Arnold is now several months into his Triple-A career and he has yet to dominate. He had one good start in April and a bunch of unmemorable ones otherwise. His mechanical adjustments are ongoing, and the light could go on at any time and restore Arnold to the pitcher the Jays thought he could be. But for now, he’s losing momentum. Is the bullpen in his immediate future?
Chris Baker, RHP, 26
2004 Syracuse
0-2, 3.00, 4 G, 4 GS, 21 IP, 15 H, 2 BB, 20 K, 3 HR
He’s throwing a little harder than he has in the past, and those peripheral numbers are terrific. Baker has been in Syracuse before, but he’s never gotten off to a start like this. The Jays are surely keeping at least half an eye on him, but AAAA pitchers are not in short supply on the Syracuse-Toronto shuttle, and the organization may feel Baker has more value as a Skychief ace than a Blue Jay long reliever.
David Bush, RHP, 24
2004 Syracuse
3-2, 3.86, 5 G, 5 GS, 30 IP, 31 H, 7 BB, 28 K, 1 HR
For his first month at Triple-A, this isn’t bad at all. Bush got hammered in his first start, which skewed his numbers, but he’s been decent to excellent in his starts since then. His control is not yet what he’d like to be, I’m sure, but strike-zone command is his signature and it will reassert itself. The Blue Jays don’t need to rush him: Justin Miller has already been called up to Toronto, and Chris Baker and even Josue Matos could be summoned by the parent club if the need presents itself. Bush should stay in Syracuse at least till June or July.
Vinny Chulk, RHP, 25
2004 Syracuse
2-1, 1 Sv, 4.85, 8 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 15 H, 8 BB, 16 K, 3 HR
Following the disastrous experiment of making Mike Smith the closer, the Skychiefs have apparently now turned that role over to Chulk, whose future is almost certainly in the bullpen. His short-inning stints have done wonders for Chulk’s strikeout rate so far, but he’s putting a lot of guys on base. He’s pretty deep on the depth chart right now.
Gabe Gross, RF, 24
2004 Syracuse
73 AB, .233/.263/.301, 6 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 20 K
Okay, on the positive side, he’s doing much better than he did in his 2002 AA debut in Tennessee. On the negative side, the average is down, the power is dormant, and the BB/K rate is simply ugly. Put it down to a slow start, because he’s proven in 182 AB last year that he can handle AAA pitching; what he hasn’t proven yet is how quickly he can adjust to the pitchers. I still think he can be in Toronto by mid-summer.
Josue Matos, RHP, 26
2004 Syracuse
0-0, 3.07, 4 G, 1 GS, 14 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 17 K, 3 HR
The minor-league free agent signing from the Mariners system has been putting up some very intriguing numbers so far. Three homers in 14 innings sure isn’t a good sign, but it’s also unsurprising from a guy who’s around the strike zone so much. I expect the Jays will give him a look in Toronto sometime this year.
Simon Pond, 3B/1B/OF, 27
2004 Syracuse
63 AB, .270/.303/.429, 5 R, 7 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 17 K
It was a month of highs and lows for the Vancouver native, who went north with the team from spring training, struck out in all three of his plate appearances, and was promptly sent back down in one of the shortest auditions on record. He’s hitting decently at Syracuse, but that BB/K rate is a source of concern. Though he didn’t really play his way off the major-league roster, he’ll still have to play his way back onto it.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 22
2004 Syracuse
58 AB, .241/.338/.397, 6 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K
One good thing about Guillermo Quiroz’s first extended trip to Triple-A has been his solid plate discipline. Quiroz used those walks to save an on-base percentage that otherwise has been hurt by a slow start in the batting average column. His power hasn’t really emerged yet either, but that should come in time. Quiroz is ahead of schedule for his age, and accordingly he should spend the whole year at Triple-A improving all facets of his game -- including his defence, which despite his strong arm is not as well-rounded as it needs to be.
Alex Rios, RF, 23
2004 Syracuse
93 AB, .280/.309/.484, 7 R, 8 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 4 BB, 14 K
Still the #1 prospect in the system, until promoted or proven otherwise. The only blip is his walk rate, which is considerably off his pace from last spring, leading to concerns that some bad habits may be returning. But the power, which was the only thing missing from his repertoire, is coming along very well. Considering this is Rios’ first month at Triple-A, it’s very encouraging. A good start.
Jorge Sequea, 2B, 23
2004 Syracuse
84 AB, .274/.351/.333, 13 R, 5 2B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 8 BB, 15 K, 0 SB, 1 CS
Not many Syracuse batters have shone this chilly April, and Sequea is stuck in the offensive malaise. After a great start to the year in terms of both power and patience, Sequea has fallen onto harder times along with the rest of the team; a sub-.350 slugging percentage is not good even for an infielder. He’ll break out of this, but it does appear more and more certain that utility infielder will be his eventual job designation.
AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Gustavo Chacin, LHP, 23
2004 New Hampshire
1-0, 1.80, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 15 H, 6 BB, 11 K, 2 HR
Chacin has been pitching in Double-A since 2000. The Venezuelan lefty hasn’t shown much in his minor-league career, though he finally started posting agreeable K/IP and BB/K rates last season. But early in 2004, the strikeouts are down again, and despite the gaudy ERA, that doesn’t bode well for the immediate future.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 24
2004 New Hampshire
1-1, 3.24, 6 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 1 HR
It’s hard to get a good read on DeJong, who’s pitched fewer than 10 innings out of a crowded New Hampshire bullpen. Certainly the early returns aren’t terrible, but this sample size is so small that there’s nothing you can reasonably take from it. Short relievers tend to produce inscrutable stat lines (see Adam Peterson). We’ll check back next month.
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 24
2004 New Hampshire
70 AB, .143/.211/.200, 7 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 9 K, 4 SB, 0 CS
One of many Fisher Cat who had serious issues with the bat out of the gate, Ty “Oh My” Godwin trails even John-Ford Griffin in OPS in the early going, and he’s had some problems in the field as well. Perhaps most distressing is that his plate discipline appears to have abandoned him; Godwin now has a 7/36 BB/K rate in his first 184 Eastern League at-bats. His leash might be shorter than other Jays’ prospects, so he needs to make a move now.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 24
2004 New Hampshire
48 AB, .188/.304/.313, 4 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 7 BB, 23 K
A spring-training injury cost him time, and he’s really been flailing since he returned to action (though he started hitting better right after the April 30 cut-off for these stats). Most alarmingly, Griffin has struck out in half of his at-bats, and that’s worse than his 600ish OPS. But he’s a much better hitter than this, and the likeliest explanation is that his post-injury timing is shot. He’ll improve, but how much he improves and how quickly will determine his immediate future. There’s a man named Vito on his rear bumper.
Aaron Hill, SS, 22
2004 New Hampshire
62 AB, .210/.359/.226, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 15 BB, 12 K
Hardly anyone had a better spring training than Hill: he hit for average and power and showed off tremendous skills. So of course, he’s struggling to break the Mendoza Line now that the real games have begun, and he’s made 8 errors already (although almost all of those have come on throws, not from his glove; he’s now getting some assistance with his footwork). It’s possible that Hill, who had fewer than 70 pro games under his belt when he debuted at Double-A, has been over-promoted based on his performance up till now. But those 15 walks demonstrate that he’s not out completely of his depth. When the weather heats up, so will he, and Fisher Cat fans will be in for a treat.
Brandon League, RHP, 21
2004 New Hampshire
2-1, 0.69, 8 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 9 K, 0 HR
League has found his niche in the bullpen. His blistering fastball and snappy slider, thrown from a low angle, make him extremely difficult to hit, especially for right-handers. His strikeouts are down from their expected rate, but as we’ve noted before, League profiles as an extreme groundballer who won’t necessarily pile up the K rates consistent with his velocity. He needs to watch his control, though. He’s still very young, and unless he utterly dominates the opposition, the Blue Jays should consider leaving him in Double-A all season, building up his arm for a career of multi-inning relief appearances.
Matt Logan, 1B, 24
2004 New Hampshire
39 AB, .333/.395/.410, 5 R, 3 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 8 K
The 1997 free-agent signing out of Brampton will be 25 this July, and is spending his fourth year in Double-A, so he doesn’t look like an actual prospect. But his batting average has been rising every year and his K/BB rate has improved from 2-1 to 1-1 in that time. He’s got a good shot at being an Olympian; look for Coach’s interview with him later on this month.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 22
2004 New Hamphsire
2-0, 1.21, 4 G, 4 GS, 22 IP, 12 H, 7 BB, 21 K, 1 HR
McGowan has torn up the Eastern League in 18 starts, striking out a batter an inning and allowing fewer hits than IP; 5 of his walks this season came in one wild start. McGowan was widely expected to be promoted to Syracuse after Sunday’s game, although he got cuffed around pretty good that day, and that might possibly affect the decision. I think it should be considered just a blip: he’s still on the A-Train to Toronto and could still be there no later than September.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 24
2004 New Hampshire
0-0, 2.61, 9 G, 0 GS, 10 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 HR
Double-A is not impressing Peterson much at all; he’s striking out over a batter an inning in the Eastern League. His BB/K rate is excellent, too. Peterson’s weakness, though, remains a lack of experience: he has just this month pitched his 100th professional inning, and already he’s expected to be in Triple-A before long. As a traditional ninth-inning closer, he’s not going to get that many innings. But he can’t wait around much longer -- believe it or not, Peterson will be 25 next month, and he’s always been old for his leagues. He may have to be promoted before he’s got the innings he should have.
Cam Reimers, RHP, 25
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 3.63, 3 G, 3 GS, 17 IP, 19 H, 3 BB, 7 K, 2 HR
The first starting pitcher in Fisher Cats history, Reimers has been travelling the AA-AAA shuttle for a few years now, and has not shown the kind of K rates he needs to reach and remain at the highest levels of the minor leagues. That hasn’t changed so far this year, either. Word is that the Blue Jays are trying to make the same sorts of adjustments to his arm angle and delivery that they’re trying with Jason Arnold at Syracuse.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 24
2004 Hew Hampshire
75 AB, .280/.329/.413, 11 R, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
Rich took hold of perhaps the last chance extended to him and is making everything of it. His early-season hitting heroics were some of the very few bright spots in an offence-starved Fisher Cat lineup. Although he’s not walking a whole lot, his bat control is good and he’s showing acceptable power. Moreover, his defence, not previously considered his strong suit, has been drawing raves. If he keeps this up, he’ll force his way back into the organization’s plans.
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Josh Banks, RHP, 21
2004 Dunedin
3-0, 0.41, 5 G, 5 GS, 22 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 27 K, 0 HR
Banks is dominating the Florida State League; even for this pitcher-friendly circuit, his early numbers are remarkable. Keep in mind that Banks is actually three months younger than Dustin McGowan; he won’t turn 22 till July. Because of this, and the fact he’s thrown so few pro innings (he’s on a tight pitch count), the Jays should resist the temptation to move him up too fast. Another few months in the Sunshine State would do him a lot of good. Right now, he’s easily the third-best pitching prospect in the system, and could conceivably pass David Bush this year.
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 3 Sv, 2.38, 9 G, 0 GS, 11 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 1 HR
Nothing wrong here so far. In very limited action, barely enough to measure, Bubbie has displayed an excellent BB/K rate and is having little difficulty with the Florida State League. We should have more data points from which to draw conclusions in a month’s time.
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 23
2004 Dunedin
80 G, .300/.389/.525, 8 R, 9 2B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 10 BB, 16 K
He’s pretty clearly not a mirage. The Florida State League drains a lot of prospects’ power, but Vito’s slugging percentage shows that there’s legitimate thunder in his bat. He’s slowed down somewhat after a tremendous power display to start the season -- nagging injuries, which caused him to miss a spate of games, might have contributed -- but his average is solid and he’s maintaining a strong walk rate. He needs half a season at least in Dunedin, but if he maintains a 900+ OPS, he might not be there for long.
Carlo Cota, 2B/3B, 23
2004 Dunedin
81 AB, .259/.330/.333, 15 R, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 8 BB, 19 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
The second-most powerful bat in Auburn last year behind Big Vito, Cota has not been able to reproduce his offensive fireworks thus far in Dunedin. His walk rate is steady enough, but he’s still striking out a lot without much power to compensate for it. Middle infield in the Blue Jays’ system is no place to stall out.
Scott Dragicevich, 3B/1B, 23
2004 Dunedin
70 AB, .271/.370/.343, 9 R, 5 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 11 BB, 17 K
A late-round choice in JP Ricciardi’s first draft as GM in 2002, Dragicevich has so far struggled to excel anywhere higher than Rookie Ball. But the former Stanford Cardinal has gotten off to a pretty good start in Dunedin, with lots of walks, but also with too many strikeouts for someone with only 5 doubles so far. If the walks fade, so might he.
Neomar Flores, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-1, 4.05, 5 G, 3 GS, 20 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 16 K, 4 HR
Another of the many Blue Jays pitching prospects from Venezuela, Flores is still quite young, but has consistently had difficulty striking out enough batters to accelerate his development. He’s off to a decent start at Dunedin, but nothing overwhelming, and those home runs are potentially disturbing. He can’t be considered an elite prospect at this point.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
3-1, 2.84, 4 G, 4 GS, 19 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 20 K, 0 HR
The Auburn Class of 2003 is showing off its stuff to the Florida State League. If not for Josh Banks’ heroics, Isenberg would be considered Dunedin’s ace, as the lefty is showing the same kind of command of his pitches and terrific strikeout rates. Like Banks, he won’t be rushed to a high level just yet. He ought to spend the year in Jeb Bush’s jurisdiction, gaining innings and experience.
Miguel Negron, OF, 22
2004 Dunedin
78 AB, .282/.367/.410, 10 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 8 BB, 17 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Negron, as we all know, is the last of the Jays’ #1 draft picks of the previous 15 years to neither reach the majors nor be on the fast track there. His lack of baseball skills and maturity held him back for a time, but that appears to be in the past. He’s still striking out a lot and not showing a great deal of extra-base power, but the latter could be a Florida State League phenomenon and the former may just be part of his game. The important thing is that he’s both hitting and walking, and that his flame hasn’t flickered out yet. Another couple of months like this and he’s officially back on the road to prospectdom.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-3, 5.74, 5 G, 1 GS, 15 IP, 22 H, 8 BB, 16 K, 0 HR, 3 WP
Perkins is really struggling in his second go-round the Florida State League: more than two baserunners an inning, and it doesn’t seem to matter if he’s starting or relieving. He’s still striking guys out, but that has never been his problem; commanding his awesome repertoire was and is. His problems appear to be largely mechanical in nature, but the fact is that hitters are now teeing off on his stuff, something that’s never happened before. He needs to steady the boat. (Late note: Vince has just been sent to the DL; no word on what the cause is or if it’s related to earlier back troubles.)
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 24
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 2.77, 7 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 2 HR
While many Jays pitching prospects are heading from the bullpen to the rotation (see Charleston), some are going the other way. Pleiness struggled somewhat as a starter in Dunedin last year, particularly with his BB/K rate (60/89 in 129 IP). The move to the bullpen has started to correct that, but he’s not missing a whole lot of bats, and his ERA is misleading in that he’s given up as many unearned runs as earned runs. Wait and see.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 23
2004 Dunedin
3-2, 3.86, 5 G, 5 GS, 25 IP, 27 H, 4 BB, 19 K, 1 HR
This compact right-hander started off 2003 with incredible strike-zone command, but tired as the season went on. He’s still stingy with the base on balls, but the K’s are just respectable at this point. A move to the bullpen might be just what the doctor ordered.
Francisco Rosario, SP, 23
2004 Dunedin
1-1, 4.50, 4 G, 4 GS, 12 IP, 11 H, 7 BB, 12 K, 2 HR
The early results of Rosario’s return to competition are certainly mixed. The raw stuff is intact -- a strikeout per inning -- but his command is clearly off and baserunners are plentiful in 12 brief innings. There was also a bicep strain that shelved him for a few games. The talk of seeing him in Manchester or Syracuse by mid-season has quieted; the Blue Jays are going to have to proceed very carefully with this valuable asset.
Raul Tablado, 3B, 22
2004 Dunedin
35 AB, .343/.410/.714, 7 R, 4 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB, 9 K
Kaboom! Every year, the Blue Jays’ new player development program manages to transform a struggling minor-leaguer or two into a legitimate prospect. Tablado has been short on both skills and focus in his minor-league career up till now, but he apparently showed up at spring training this year a different man, and the results are clear. His tremendous comeback has been stalled by an injury, but it doesn’t appear to be serious and he should be back fairly soon. If he really is evolving from suspect to prospect, chalk up another one for Dick Scott & Company.
Jayce Tingler, OF, 23
Dunedin 2004
79 AB, .291/.426/.354, 15 R, 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 17 BB, 4 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
Maybe he’s not the second coming of Richie Ashburn, but the first coming of Jayce Tingler is more than sufficiently impressive. His BB/K rate is insane, and he’s hitting enough that he’s not simply a creature of the strike zone. But Tingler has only 5 doubles so far in Dunedin, and the fact remains that you need a minimum amount of power to stand your ground in the batter’s box as you advance through the minors. There’s not a more exciting player in the system, but let’s not get over-excited yet.
Santo Valdez, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 1 Sv, 3.78, 8 G, 0 GS, 16 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 2 HR
Valdez’s terrific 2002 in Charleston was followed up by an altogether dismal 2003 in Dunedin; he was principally a starter both years. In 2004, the Jays have moved Valdez to the bullpen, and so far it looks promising, especially in the BB/K category. I’d rank Valdez as a better prospect right now than either Ramirez or Flores (note: I wrote this the day before Valdez gave up about a billion runs in a relief effort, but I stand by it still.)
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
2-1, 3.52, 7 G, 1 GS, 15 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 14 K, 2 HR
For the first time in his brief pro career, Vermilyea is running into a little static; those two homers alone are twice what he allowed all of 2003. Of course, everyone should be so lucky as to have those numbers considered a disappointment. Vermilyea was briefly featured as a starter, but appears to be locked into a bullpen spot at the moment; with the wave of rotation talent coming up from Charleston, that’s probably for the best. At least he’s finally looking a little human.
Jason Waugh, OF, 24
2004 New Hampshire
11 AB, .273/.333/.273, 0 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K
2004 Dunedin
52 AB, .269/.316/.269, 8 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K
Originally posted to Manchester, Waugh lasted only 11 AB as a Fisher Cat before being demoted to Dunedin as part of a series of roster moves. It doesn’t speak well of the organization’s view of him that Waugh is evidently considered a transferable asset. It also doesn’t bode well that in his first few weeks back in Dunedin, Waugh has shown little of the patience and none of the power he flashed last year in the FSL. It might well be that he’s discouraged to find himself back in A-Ball; but idle speculation aside, the only way to get out of the low minors is to play your way out. I think he’ll rebound.
Low-A Charleston Alley-Cats
Danny Core, RHP, 22
2004 Charleston
1-1, 2.45, 4 G, 4 GS, 22 IP, 16 H, 2 BB, 17 K, 1 HR
An ex-Doubleday who didn’t have the kind of breakout debut that many other Auburnites did last year, Core got off to a solid start in 2004, though he did suffer a major belting in a game right after this list was prepared. His best pitch is a curveball, but his fastball rarely cracks 90, so he might eventually be better suited for the pen.
Robinzon Diaz, C, 20
2004 Charleston
77 AB, .312/.329./338, 11 R, 2 2B, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Diaz’s solid average is all the more impressive considering the leap he made, from Pulaski to Charleston. He obviously should be walking more than this, and if he slumps at the plate, the results could be ugly. The power will also have to wait. But he’s young, comparable to a younger Guillermo Quiroz at this stage, with a higher average but less power. He’s still a work in progress. And yes, those are two stolen bases in three attempts.
Mike Galloway, OF, 22
2004 Charleston
57 AB, .333/.381/.561, 7 R, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 16 K
The pride of St. Thomas, Ontario (actually, I shouldn’t assume that; for all I know, the pride of St. Thomas could be a world-class genetically-modified-grain research lab) is in his third pro year with the organization, though this is his first full-season campaign. He performed decently at Auburn in 2002 and is building on that, especially in the power department. But just like last year, he’s still striking out in about a quarter of his at-bats. If he maintains a .370ish OBP with power, though, he’ll be very interesting.
Justin James, RHP, 22
2004 Charleston
1-1, 5.23, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 18 H, 5 BB, 31 K, 2 HR
Another of last year’s Auburn relief corps turned starter in Charleston, James is posting the best strikeout numbers of anyone on that talented staff. His 5+ ERA sticks out like a sore thumb, of course; nonetheless, he’s given up only 2 home runs in 4 starts, and his BB/K rate (5/31) is fabulous, so the ERA looks like an aberration for the moment. We’ll know more next month, but I think he’s solid.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 22
2004 Charleston
3-0, 1.64, 4 G, 4 GS, 28 IP, 16 H, 2 BB, 27 K, 1 HR
Zowie. Marcum is to the SAL what Josh Banks is to the FSL: too much. A reliever last year in Auburn, Marcum is making the transition to the rotation seamlessly, and he should be among the first graduates of the Charleston juggernaut to move up to Dunedin. Banks is the best pitching prospect in the lower minors, but Isenberg and Marcum are not far behind (and a healthy Rosario might trump them all).
Tom Mastny, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
1-1, 1.42, 4 G, 4 GS, 19 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 25 K, 0 HR
Silencing for the moment those doubters (including yours truly) who thought he was a step behind his Auburn mound mates last year, Nasty Mastny is posting numbers at Charleston that rival or surpass his current rotation colleagues. Scouting reports continue to say his raw stuff isn’t overpowering, but right now, there is no arguing with those results. Keep a close eye on him.
Juan Peralta, SS/2B, 20
2004 Charleston
56 AB, .196/.286/.232, 9 R. 0 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6 BB, 6 K, 0 SB, 2 CS
Last year at Auburn, Peralta showed power and patience, but not much ability to make contact. So far at Charleston, he’s down to patience, and not much of that. Plate discipline that good doesn’t just disappear overnight, and he’s still very young, so I’m sure he’ll rebound, but he simply has to hit safely more often. At least his strikeout rate has started to climb down from its lofty 2003 heights.
Brian Reed, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
1-0, 4 Sv, 0.00, 6 G, 0 GS, 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 HR
One of the problems with evaluating closers is that because they work so briefly and infrequently, you can’t really get a bead on them on a month-to-month basis. The best thing you can say about Reed is that he’s had a good 6 innings. But it’s worth noting this: with the exception of Adam Peterson, the Blue Jays don’t tend to put their most prized relievers in the ninth-inning closer role.
Ryan Roberts, 2B, 23
2004 Charleston
67 AB, .358/.488/.582, 13 R, 3 2B, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 15 BB, 9 K
Hello. Roberts was a steal in the 18th round of the 2003 draft, but no one was expecting this start, not after he posted just a respectable 814 OPS in 250 AB in Auburn last year. Roberts of course won’t keep this lofty pace up, but he’s serving notice that he’s a legitimate prospect. Roberts was moved from third to second because his power, while impressive now, figures to be tweenerish at the uppermost levels – average for a third sacker, but terrific for a middle infielder. Wherever he plays, Roberts almost certainly has the Blue Jays’ strict attention.
Davis Romero, LHP, 21
2004 Charleston
0-0, 1 Sv, 2.13, 6 G, 1 GS, 12 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 14 K
The Alley-Cats bullpen is pretty ridiculous, almost as overpowering as the Doubledays pen was last year. No one is touching Davis Romero, who’s putting up numbers so far that argue he doesn’t belong in the South Atlantic League anymore. The left-hander deserves a trip down south to Florida.
Felix Romero, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
200, 1 Sv, 1.13, 7 G, 0 GS, 16 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 25 K, 0 HR
As I’ve said before, this Romero doesn’t have anything much to prove to the South Atlantic League either, where he’s starting his third season. He’ll be 24 next month, so if he doesn’t get a promotion at least to Dunedin in that time frame, we can safely assume the organization has no big plans for him and doesn’t think he’s a serious prospect. He’s certainly pitching like one.
Marcos Sandoval, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
1-0, 2.03, 7 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 HR
As a 19-year-old in 2002, Sandoval threw 164 innings for Hagerstown, Charleston’s predecessor as the Blue Jays’ Sally farm team. He hasn’t thrown that many innings in the three seasons after that combined. Partly this was because Sandoval was moved to the pen, but I can’t imagine that his early workload was good for him in any respect. Sandoval’s minor-league career has been pretty unimpressive until this month, when he posted solid numbers and great BB/K rate. A blip or a turnaround? Tune in next month.
David Smith, OF, 23
2004 Charleston
62 AB, .274/.392/.468, 9 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 11 BB, 18 K
There are seven past or current David Smiths in baseball; all but this one were pitchers. I just thought you needed to know that. Smith posted OPSes in the 600s in his first two professional seasons, exhibiting minimal plate discipline in the process, but he’s off to a pretty good start in his hometown of Charleston this year. He’s worth a follow-up next month.
Christian Snavely, OF, 21
2004 Charleston
48 AB, .250/.393/.375, 10 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 12 BB, 20 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
A young man much discussed at Batter’s Box, this 6th-rounder from Ohio State had a tremendous career as a Buckeye, turning in a .335/.487/.665 season in his final year. But he struggled in his pro debut at Auburn, one of the few Doubledays batters not to enjoy a strong season. His amazing collegiate walk totals are being echoed at Charleston, but he’s still looking for a higher average and more power. He's quite young (he turns 22 on Friday), and it’s way too early to write him off yet.
Injured
DJ Hanson, RHP, 23
2004 Injured
A fairly serious shoulder problem (judged serious by the fact that he passed uncontested through waivers this spring) has sidelined Hanson for awhile. I don’t have injury updates, unfortunately: the Blue Jays, like all other major-league organizations, are taking greater care of their players’ privacy, particularly when it comes to medical matters. We won’t know for awhile what it is or how bad the damage is, but Hanson, who has had a star-crossed career with the Blue Jays, shouldn’t be counted on for the foreseeable future.
Jesse Harper, RHP, 23
2004 Injured
A spring-training injury has also kept Harper off the mound in April; there’s no official word as to his return date. If he comes back healthy, he’s good enough to be in New Hampshire by summertime.
Justin Maureau, LHP, 23
2004 Injured
Another early-season injury victim, Maureau is still working his way back into shape in extended spring training and would likely debut with Dunedin. At his age and with his struggles last year, Maureau really didn’t need to lose more time to an injury, but so it goes. His window of opportunity to become more than a LOOGY is narrowing.
Rodney Medina, OF, 22
2004 Injured
Injured after just one at-bat this season, Medina, a pre-season sleeper, has recently come off the disabled list and is playing at Dunedin. I’m looking forward to see how he performs once he gets rid of the rust.
I’d also like to issue what is fast becoming my patented cautionary preface. Thanks to the tremendous work of our minor-league writers John Neary, Steve Z and Gerry McDonald (who also have helped finalize this report), Batter’s Box readers have been treated to daily updates on the status of dozens of Blue Jay prospects. The ensuing discussions of these updates and these prospects have been detailed and insightful, and I’d like to thank everyone who participates. I don’t know of any fan site that keeps its readers so well informed on the organization’s farm system.
But if there’s a downside to the depth of our coverage, it would be the risk we all run of over-analyzing these same prospects, of focusing the microscope too tightly. One month is not enough time to make substantive judgments about anyone’s skills or potential, regardless of their vocation, and minor-league baseball players are far from the exception. Nobody on this list has even 100 at-bats or 50 innings pitched, and all these sample sizes are so small that they’re only reliably to be used as directional indicators, pointers as to progress rather than conclusions as to ability. In short, don’t jump to conclusions, good or bad. A lot can change in a month, and usually does.
AAA Syracuse Skychiefs
Russ Adams, SS, 23
2004 Syracuse
76 AB, .237/.359/.368, 5 R, 8 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 13 BB, 7 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
It’s a pretty decent start in the International League for the former first-rounder. The hits haven’t started falling in yet, but his strike-zone command is extremely good, and that bodes very well. He’s a few multi-hit games away from the .280ish average that he will carry around with him for his career. The real test for Adams here will be whether he can handle shortstop defensively; after a slew of errors early, he’s been steadier lately. With Chris Woodward playing much better ahead of him and Aaron Hill off to a slow start behind him, Adams should feel no pressure and ought to be given most of the season in Syracuse to develop more fully.
Jason Arnold, SP, 24
2004 Syracuse
1-2, 4.35, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 22 H, 7 BB, 11 K, 3 HR
Arnold is now several months into his Triple-A career and he has yet to dominate. He had one good start in April and a bunch of unmemorable ones otherwise. His mechanical adjustments are ongoing, and the light could go on at any time and restore Arnold to the pitcher the Jays thought he could be. But for now, he’s losing momentum. Is the bullpen in his immediate future?
Chris Baker, RHP, 26
2004 Syracuse
0-2, 3.00, 4 G, 4 GS, 21 IP, 15 H, 2 BB, 20 K, 3 HR
He’s throwing a little harder than he has in the past, and those peripheral numbers are terrific. Baker has been in Syracuse before, but he’s never gotten off to a start like this. The Jays are surely keeping at least half an eye on him, but AAAA pitchers are not in short supply on the Syracuse-Toronto shuttle, and the organization may feel Baker has more value as a Skychief ace than a Blue Jay long reliever.
David Bush, RHP, 24
2004 Syracuse
3-2, 3.86, 5 G, 5 GS, 30 IP, 31 H, 7 BB, 28 K, 1 HR
For his first month at Triple-A, this isn’t bad at all. Bush got hammered in his first start, which skewed his numbers, but he’s been decent to excellent in his starts since then. His control is not yet what he’d like to be, I’m sure, but strike-zone command is his signature and it will reassert itself. The Blue Jays don’t need to rush him: Justin Miller has already been called up to Toronto, and Chris Baker and even Josue Matos could be summoned by the parent club if the need presents itself. Bush should stay in Syracuse at least till June or July.
Vinny Chulk, RHP, 25
2004 Syracuse
2-1, 1 Sv, 4.85, 8 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 15 H, 8 BB, 16 K, 3 HR
Following the disastrous experiment of making Mike Smith the closer, the Skychiefs have apparently now turned that role over to Chulk, whose future is almost certainly in the bullpen. His short-inning stints have done wonders for Chulk’s strikeout rate so far, but he’s putting a lot of guys on base. He’s pretty deep on the depth chart right now.
Gabe Gross, RF, 24
2004 Syracuse
73 AB, .233/.263/.301, 6 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 20 K
Okay, on the positive side, he’s doing much better than he did in his 2002 AA debut in Tennessee. On the negative side, the average is down, the power is dormant, and the BB/K rate is simply ugly. Put it down to a slow start, because he’s proven in 182 AB last year that he can handle AAA pitching; what he hasn’t proven yet is how quickly he can adjust to the pitchers. I still think he can be in Toronto by mid-summer.
Josue Matos, RHP, 26
2004 Syracuse
0-0, 3.07, 4 G, 1 GS, 14 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 17 K, 3 HR
The minor-league free agent signing from the Mariners system has been putting up some very intriguing numbers so far. Three homers in 14 innings sure isn’t a good sign, but it’s also unsurprising from a guy who’s around the strike zone so much. I expect the Jays will give him a look in Toronto sometime this year.
Simon Pond, 3B/1B/OF, 27
2004 Syracuse
63 AB, .270/.303/.429, 5 R, 7 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 17 K
It was a month of highs and lows for the Vancouver native, who went north with the team from spring training, struck out in all three of his plate appearances, and was promptly sent back down in one of the shortest auditions on record. He’s hitting decently at Syracuse, but that BB/K rate is a source of concern. Though he didn’t really play his way off the major-league roster, he’ll still have to play his way back onto it.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 22
2004 Syracuse
58 AB, .241/.338/.397, 6 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 9 BB, 16 K
One good thing about Guillermo Quiroz’s first extended trip to Triple-A has been his solid plate discipline. Quiroz used those walks to save an on-base percentage that otherwise has been hurt by a slow start in the batting average column. His power hasn’t really emerged yet either, but that should come in time. Quiroz is ahead of schedule for his age, and accordingly he should spend the whole year at Triple-A improving all facets of his game -- including his defence, which despite his strong arm is not as well-rounded as it needs to be.
Alex Rios, RF, 23
2004 Syracuse
93 AB, .280/.309/.484, 7 R, 8 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 4 BB, 14 K
Still the #1 prospect in the system, until promoted or proven otherwise. The only blip is his walk rate, which is considerably off his pace from last spring, leading to concerns that some bad habits may be returning. But the power, which was the only thing missing from his repertoire, is coming along very well. Considering this is Rios’ first month at Triple-A, it’s very encouraging. A good start.
Jorge Sequea, 2B, 23
2004 Syracuse
84 AB, .274/.351/.333, 13 R, 5 2B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 8 BB, 15 K, 0 SB, 1 CS
Not many Syracuse batters have shone this chilly April, and Sequea is stuck in the offensive malaise. After a great start to the year in terms of both power and patience, Sequea has fallen onto harder times along with the rest of the team; a sub-.350 slugging percentage is not good even for an infielder. He’ll break out of this, but it does appear more and more certain that utility infielder will be his eventual job designation.
AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Gustavo Chacin, LHP, 23
2004 New Hampshire
1-0, 1.80, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 15 H, 6 BB, 11 K, 2 HR
Chacin has been pitching in Double-A since 2000. The Venezuelan lefty hasn’t shown much in his minor-league career, though he finally started posting agreeable K/IP and BB/K rates last season. But early in 2004, the strikeouts are down again, and despite the gaudy ERA, that doesn’t bode well for the immediate future.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 24
2004 New Hampshire
1-1, 3.24, 6 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 9 K, 1 HR
It’s hard to get a good read on DeJong, who’s pitched fewer than 10 innings out of a crowded New Hampshire bullpen. Certainly the early returns aren’t terrible, but this sample size is so small that there’s nothing you can reasonably take from it. Short relievers tend to produce inscrutable stat lines (see Adam Peterson). We’ll check back next month.
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 24
2004 New Hampshire
70 AB, .143/.211/.200, 7 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 9 K, 4 SB, 0 CS
One of many Fisher Cat who had serious issues with the bat out of the gate, Ty “Oh My” Godwin trails even John-Ford Griffin in OPS in the early going, and he’s had some problems in the field as well. Perhaps most distressing is that his plate discipline appears to have abandoned him; Godwin now has a 7/36 BB/K rate in his first 184 Eastern League at-bats. His leash might be shorter than other Jays’ prospects, so he needs to make a move now.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 24
2004 New Hampshire
48 AB, .188/.304/.313, 4 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 7 BB, 23 K
A spring-training injury cost him time, and he’s really been flailing since he returned to action (though he started hitting better right after the April 30 cut-off for these stats). Most alarmingly, Griffin has struck out in half of his at-bats, and that’s worse than his 600ish OPS. But he’s a much better hitter than this, and the likeliest explanation is that his post-injury timing is shot. He’ll improve, but how much he improves and how quickly will determine his immediate future. There’s a man named Vito on his rear bumper.
Aaron Hill, SS, 22
2004 New Hampshire
62 AB, .210/.359/.226, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 15 BB, 12 K
Hardly anyone had a better spring training than Hill: he hit for average and power and showed off tremendous skills. So of course, he’s struggling to break the Mendoza Line now that the real games have begun, and he’s made 8 errors already (although almost all of those have come on throws, not from his glove; he’s now getting some assistance with his footwork). It’s possible that Hill, who had fewer than 70 pro games under his belt when he debuted at Double-A, has been over-promoted based on his performance up till now. But those 15 walks demonstrate that he’s not out completely of his depth. When the weather heats up, so will he, and Fisher Cat fans will be in for a treat.
Brandon League, RHP, 21
2004 New Hampshire
2-1, 0.69, 8 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 9 K, 0 HR
League has found his niche in the bullpen. His blistering fastball and snappy slider, thrown from a low angle, make him extremely difficult to hit, especially for right-handers. His strikeouts are down from their expected rate, but as we’ve noted before, League profiles as an extreme groundballer who won’t necessarily pile up the K rates consistent with his velocity. He needs to watch his control, though. He’s still very young, and unless he utterly dominates the opposition, the Blue Jays should consider leaving him in Double-A all season, building up his arm for a career of multi-inning relief appearances.
Matt Logan, 1B, 24
2004 New Hampshire
39 AB, .333/.395/.410, 5 R, 3 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 8 K
The 1997 free-agent signing out of Brampton will be 25 this July, and is spending his fourth year in Double-A, so he doesn’t look like an actual prospect. But his batting average has been rising every year and his K/BB rate has improved from 2-1 to 1-1 in that time. He’s got a good shot at being an Olympian; look for Coach’s interview with him later on this month.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 22
2004 New Hamphsire
2-0, 1.21, 4 G, 4 GS, 22 IP, 12 H, 7 BB, 21 K, 1 HR
McGowan has torn up the Eastern League in 18 starts, striking out a batter an inning and allowing fewer hits than IP; 5 of his walks this season came in one wild start. McGowan was widely expected to be promoted to Syracuse after Sunday’s game, although he got cuffed around pretty good that day, and that might possibly affect the decision. I think it should be considered just a blip: he’s still on the A-Train to Toronto and could still be there no later than September.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 24
2004 New Hampshire
0-0, 2.61, 9 G, 0 GS, 10 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 HR
Double-A is not impressing Peterson much at all; he’s striking out over a batter an inning in the Eastern League. His BB/K rate is excellent, too. Peterson’s weakness, though, remains a lack of experience: he has just this month pitched his 100th professional inning, and already he’s expected to be in Triple-A before long. As a traditional ninth-inning closer, he’s not going to get that many innings. But he can’t wait around much longer -- believe it or not, Peterson will be 25 next month, and he’s always been old for his leagues. He may have to be promoted before he’s got the innings he should have.
Cam Reimers, RHP, 25
2004 New Hampshire
2-0, 3.63, 3 G, 3 GS, 17 IP, 19 H, 3 BB, 7 K, 2 HR
The first starting pitcher in Fisher Cats history, Reimers has been travelling the AA-AAA shuttle for a few years now, and has not shown the kind of K rates he needs to reach and remain at the highest levels of the minor leagues. That hasn’t changed so far this year, either. Word is that the Blue Jays are trying to make the same sorts of adjustments to his arm angle and delivery that they’re trying with Jason Arnold at Syracuse.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 24
2004 Hew Hampshire
75 AB, .280/.329/.413, 11 R, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 SB, 0 CS
Rich took hold of perhaps the last chance extended to him and is making everything of it. His early-season hitting heroics were some of the very few bright spots in an offence-starved Fisher Cat lineup. Although he’s not walking a whole lot, his bat control is good and he’s showing acceptable power. Moreover, his defence, not previously considered his strong suit, has been drawing raves. If he keeps this up, he’ll force his way back into the organization’s plans.
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Josh Banks, RHP, 21
2004 Dunedin
3-0, 0.41, 5 G, 5 GS, 22 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 27 K, 0 HR
Banks is dominating the Florida State League; even for this pitcher-friendly circuit, his early numbers are remarkable. Keep in mind that Banks is actually three months younger than Dustin McGowan; he won’t turn 22 till July. Because of this, and the fact he’s thrown so few pro innings (he’s on a tight pitch count), the Jays should resist the temptation to move him up too fast. Another few months in the Sunshine State would do him a lot of good. Right now, he’s easily the third-best pitching prospect in the system, and could conceivably pass David Bush this year.
Bubbie Buzachero, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 3 Sv, 2.38, 9 G, 0 GS, 11 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 1 HR
Nothing wrong here so far. In very limited action, barely enough to measure, Bubbie has displayed an excellent BB/K rate and is having little difficulty with the Florida State League. We should have more data points from which to draw conclusions in a month’s time.
Vito Chiaravalloti, 1B, 23
2004 Dunedin
80 G, .300/.389/.525, 8 R, 9 2B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 10 BB, 16 K
He’s pretty clearly not a mirage. The Florida State League drains a lot of prospects’ power, but Vito’s slugging percentage shows that there’s legitimate thunder in his bat. He’s slowed down somewhat after a tremendous power display to start the season -- nagging injuries, which caused him to miss a spate of games, might have contributed -- but his average is solid and he’s maintaining a strong walk rate. He needs half a season at least in Dunedin, but if he maintains a 900+ OPS, he might not be there for long.
Carlo Cota, 2B/3B, 23
2004 Dunedin
81 AB, .259/.330/.333, 15 R, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 8 BB, 19 K, 1 SB, 1 CS
The second-most powerful bat in Auburn last year behind Big Vito, Cota has not been able to reproduce his offensive fireworks thus far in Dunedin. His walk rate is steady enough, but he’s still striking out a lot without much power to compensate for it. Middle infield in the Blue Jays’ system is no place to stall out.
Scott Dragicevich, 3B/1B, 23
2004 Dunedin
70 AB, .271/.370/.343, 9 R, 5 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 11 BB, 17 K
A late-round choice in JP Ricciardi’s first draft as GM in 2002, Dragicevich has so far struggled to excel anywhere higher than Rookie Ball. But the former Stanford Cardinal has gotten off to a pretty good start in Dunedin, with lots of walks, but also with too many strikeouts for someone with only 5 doubles so far. If the walks fade, so might he.
Neomar Flores, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-1, 4.05, 5 G, 3 GS, 20 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 16 K, 4 HR
Another of the many Blue Jays pitching prospects from Venezuela, Flores is still quite young, but has consistently had difficulty striking out enough batters to accelerate his development. He’s off to a decent start at Dunedin, but nothing overwhelming, and those home runs are potentially disturbing. He can’t be considered an elite prospect at this point.
Kurt Isenberg, LHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
3-1, 2.84, 4 G, 4 GS, 19 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 20 K, 0 HR
The Auburn Class of 2003 is showing off its stuff to the Florida State League. If not for Josh Banks’ heroics, Isenberg would be considered Dunedin’s ace, as the lefty is showing the same kind of command of his pitches and terrific strikeout rates. Like Banks, he won’t be rushed to a high level just yet. He ought to spend the year in Jeb Bush’s jurisdiction, gaining innings and experience.
Miguel Negron, OF, 22
2004 Dunedin
78 AB, .282/.367/.410, 10 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 8 BB, 17 K, 2 SB, 0 CS
Negron, as we all know, is the last of the Jays’ #1 draft picks of the previous 15 years to neither reach the majors nor be on the fast track there. His lack of baseball skills and maturity held him back for a time, but that appears to be in the past. He’s still striking out a lot and not showing a great deal of extra-base power, but the latter could be a Florida State League phenomenon and the former may just be part of his game. The important thing is that he’s both hitting and walking, and that his flame hasn’t flickered out yet. Another couple of months like this and he’s officially back on the road to prospectdom.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-3, 5.74, 5 G, 1 GS, 15 IP, 22 H, 8 BB, 16 K, 0 HR, 3 WP
Perkins is really struggling in his second go-round the Florida State League: more than two baserunners an inning, and it doesn’t seem to matter if he’s starting or relieving. He’s still striking guys out, but that has never been his problem; commanding his awesome repertoire was and is. His problems appear to be largely mechanical in nature, but the fact is that hitters are now teeing off on his stuff, something that’s never happened before. He needs to steady the boat. (Late note: Vince has just been sent to the DL; no word on what the cause is or if it’s related to earlier back troubles.)
Chad Pleiness, RHP, 24
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 2.77, 7 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 2 HR
While many Jays pitching prospects are heading from the bullpen to the rotation (see Charleston), some are going the other way. Pleiness struggled somewhat as a starter in Dunedin last year, particularly with his BB/K rate (60/89 in 129 IP). The move to the bullpen has started to correct that, but he’s not missing a whole lot of bats, and his ERA is misleading in that he’s given up as many unearned runs as earned runs. Wait and see.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 23
2004 Dunedin
3-2, 3.86, 5 G, 5 GS, 25 IP, 27 H, 4 BB, 19 K, 1 HR
This compact right-hander started off 2003 with incredible strike-zone command, but tired as the season went on. He’s still stingy with the base on balls, but the K’s are just respectable at this point. A move to the bullpen might be just what the doctor ordered.
Francisco Rosario, SP, 23
2004 Dunedin
1-1, 4.50, 4 G, 4 GS, 12 IP, 11 H, 7 BB, 12 K, 2 HR
The early results of Rosario’s return to competition are certainly mixed. The raw stuff is intact -- a strikeout per inning -- but his command is clearly off and baserunners are plentiful in 12 brief innings. There was also a bicep strain that shelved him for a few games. The talk of seeing him in Manchester or Syracuse by mid-season has quieted; the Blue Jays are going to have to proceed very carefully with this valuable asset.
Raul Tablado, 3B, 22
2004 Dunedin
35 AB, .343/.410/.714, 7 R, 4 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB, 9 K
Kaboom! Every year, the Blue Jays’ new player development program manages to transform a struggling minor-leaguer or two into a legitimate prospect. Tablado has been short on both skills and focus in his minor-league career up till now, but he apparently showed up at spring training this year a different man, and the results are clear. His tremendous comeback has been stalled by an injury, but it doesn’t appear to be serious and he should be back fairly soon. If he really is evolving from suspect to prospect, chalk up another one for Dick Scott & Company.
Jayce Tingler, OF, 23
Dunedin 2004
79 AB, .291/.426/.354, 15 R, 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 17 BB, 4 K, 4 SB, 1 CS
Maybe he’s not the second coming of Richie Ashburn, but the first coming of Jayce Tingler is more than sufficiently impressive. His BB/K rate is insane, and he’s hitting enough that he’s not simply a creature of the strike zone. But Tingler has only 5 doubles so far in Dunedin, and the fact remains that you need a minimum amount of power to stand your ground in the batter’s box as you advance through the minors. There’s not a more exciting player in the system, but let’s not get over-excited yet.
Santo Valdez, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
0-0, 1 Sv, 3.78, 8 G, 0 GS, 16 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 2 HR
Valdez’s terrific 2002 in Charleston was followed up by an altogether dismal 2003 in Dunedin; he was principally a starter both years. In 2004, the Jays have moved Valdez to the bullpen, and so far it looks promising, especially in the BB/K category. I’d rank Valdez as a better prospect right now than either Ramirez or Flores (note: I wrote this the day before Valdez gave up about a billion runs in a relief effort, but I stand by it still.)
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 22
2004 Dunedin
2-1, 3.52, 7 G, 1 GS, 15 IP, 17 H, 5 BB, 14 K, 2 HR
For the first time in his brief pro career, Vermilyea is running into a little static; those two homers alone are twice what he allowed all of 2003. Of course, everyone should be so lucky as to have those numbers considered a disappointment. Vermilyea was briefly featured as a starter, but appears to be locked into a bullpen spot at the moment; with the wave of rotation talent coming up from Charleston, that’s probably for the best. At least he’s finally looking a little human.
Jason Waugh, OF, 24
2004 New Hampshire
11 AB, .273/.333/.273, 0 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K
2004 Dunedin
52 AB, .269/.316/.269, 8 R, 0 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K
Originally posted to Manchester, Waugh lasted only 11 AB as a Fisher Cat before being demoted to Dunedin as part of a series of roster moves. It doesn’t speak well of the organization’s view of him that Waugh is evidently considered a transferable asset. It also doesn’t bode well that in his first few weeks back in Dunedin, Waugh has shown little of the patience and none of the power he flashed last year in the FSL. It might well be that he’s discouraged to find himself back in A-Ball; but idle speculation aside, the only way to get out of the low minors is to play your way out. I think he’ll rebound.
Low-A Charleston Alley-Cats
Danny Core, RHP, 22
2004 Charleston
1-1, 2.45, 4 G, 4 GS, 22 IP, 16 H, 2 BB, 17 K, 1 HR
An ex-Doubleday who didn’t have the kind of breakout debut that many other Auburnites did last year, Core got off to a solid start in 2004, though he did suffer a major belting in a game right after this list was prepared. His best pitch is a curveball, but his fastball rarely cracks 90, so he might eventually be better suited for the pen.
Robinzon Diaz, C, 20
2004 Charleston
77 AB, .312/.329./338, 11 R, 2 2B, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
Diaz’s solid average is all the more impressive considering the leap he made, from Pulaski to Charleston. He obviously should be walking more than this, and if he slumps at the plate, the results could be ugly. The power will also have to wait. But he’s young, comparable to a younger Guillermo Quiroz at this stage, with a higher average but less power. He’s still a work in progress. And yes, those are two stolen bases in three attempts.
Mike Galloway, OF, 22
2004 Charleston
57 AB, .333/.381/.561, 7 R, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 16 K
The pride of St. Thomas, Ontario (actually, I shouldn’t assume that; for all I know, the pride of St. Thomas could be a world-class genetically-modified-grain research lab) is in his third pro year with the organization, though this is his first full-season campaign. He performed decently at Auburn in 2002 and is building on that, especially in the power department. But just like last year, he’s still striking out in about a quarter of his at-bats. If he maintains a .370ish OBP with power, though, he’ll be very interesting.
Justin James, RHP, 22
2004 Charleston
1-1, 5.23, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 18 H, 5 BB, 31 K, 2 HR
Another of last year’s Auburn relief corps turned starter in Charleston, James is posting the best strikeout numbers of anyone on that talented staff. His 5+ ERA sticks out like a sore thumb, of course; nonetheless, he’s given up only 2 home runs in 4 starts, and his BB/K rate (5/31) is fabulous, so the ERA looks like an aberration for the moment. We’ll know more next month, but I think he’s solid.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 22
2004 Charleston
3-0, 1.64, 4 G, 4 GS, 28 IP, 16 H, 2 BB, 27 K, 1 HR
Zowie. Marcum is to the SAL what Josh Banks is to the FSL: too much. A reliever last year in Auburn, Marcum is making the transition to the rotation seamlessly, and he should be among the first graduates of the Charleston juggernaut to move up to Dunedin. Banks is the best pitching prospect in the lower minors, but Isenberg and Marcum are not far behind (and a healthy Rosario might trump them all).
Tom Mastny, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
1-1, 1.42, 4 G, 4 GS, 19 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 25 K, 0 HR
Silencing for the moment those doubters (including yours truly) who thought he was a step behind his Auburn mound mates last year, Nasty Mastny is posting numbers at Charleston that rival or surpass his current rotation colleagues. Scouting reports continue to say his raw stuff isn’t overpowering, but right now, there is no arguing with those results. Keep a close eye on him.
Juan Peralta, SS/2B, 20
2004 Charleston
56 AB, .196/.286/.232, 9 R. 0 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6 BB, 6 K, 0 SB, 2 CS
Last year at Auburn, Peralta showed power and patience, but not much ability to make contact. So far at Charleston, he’s down to patience, and not much of that. Plate discipline that good doesn’t just disappear overnight, and he’s still very young, so I’m sure he’ll rebound, but he simply has to hit safely more often. At least his strikeout rate has started to climb down from its lofty 2003 heights.
Brian Reed, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
1-0, 4 Sv, 0.00, 6 G, 0 GS, 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 HR
One of the problems with evaluating closers is that because they work so briefly and infrequently, you can’t really get a bead on them on a month-to-month basis. The best thing you can say about Reed is that he’s had a good 6 innings. But it’s worth noting this: with the exception of Adam Peterson, the Blue Jays don’t tend to put their most prized relievers in the ninth-inning closer role.
Ryan Roberts, 2B, 23
2004 Charleston
67 AB, .358/.488/.582, 13 R, 3 2B, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 15 BB, 9 K
Hello. Roberts was a steal in the 18th round of the 2003 draft, but no one was expecting this start, not after he posted just a respectable 814 OPS in 250 AB in Auburn last year. Roberts of course won’t keep this lofty pace up, but he’s serving notice that he’s a legitimate prospect. Roberts was moved from third to second because his power, while impressive now, figures to be tweenerish at the uppermost levels – average for a third sacker, but terrific for a middle infielder. Wherever he plays, Roberts almost certainly has the Blue Jays’ strict attention.
Davis Romero, LHP, 21
2004 Charleston
0-0, 1 Sv, 2.13, 6 G, 1 GS, 12 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 14 K
The Alley-Cats bullpen is pretty ridiculous, almost as overpowering as the Doubledays pen was last year. No one is touching Davis Romero, who’s putting up numbers so far that argue he doesn’t belong in the South Atlantic League anymore. The left-hander deserves a trip down south to Florida.
Felix Romero, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
200, 1 Sv, 1.13, 7 G, 0 GS, 16 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 25 K, 0 HR
As I’ve said before, this Romero doesn’t have anything much to prove to the South Atlantic League either, where he’s starting his third season. He’ll be 24 next month, so if he doesn’t get a promotion at least to Dunedin in that time frame, we can safely assume the organization has no big plans for him and doesn’t think he’s a serious prospect. He’s certainly pitching like one.
Marcos Sandoval, RHP, 23
2004 Charleston
1-0, 2.03, 7 G, 0 GS, 13 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 HR
As a 19-year-old in 2002, Sandoval threw 164 innings for Hagerstown, Charleston’s predecessor as the Blue Jays’ Sally farm team. He hasn’t thrown that many innings in the three seasons after that combined. Partly this was because Sandoval was moved to the pen, but I can’t imagine that his early workload was good for him in any respect. Sandoval’s minor-league career has been pretty unimpressive until this month, when he posted solid numbers and great BB/K rate. A blip or a turnaround? Tune in next month.
David Smith, OF, 23
2004 Charleston
62 AB, .274/.392/.468, 9 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 11 BB, 18 K
There are seven past or current David Smiths in baseball; all but this one were pitchers. I just thought you needed to know that. Smith posted OPSes in the 600s in his first two professional seasons, exhibiting minimal plate discipline in the process, but he’s off to a pretty good start in his hometown of Charleston this year. He’s worth a follow-up next month.
Christian Snavely, OF, 21
2004 Charleston
48 AB, .250/.393/.375, 10 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 12 BB, 20 K, 2 SB, 1 CS
A young man much discussed at Batter’s Box, this 6th-rounder from Ohio State had a tremendous career as a Buckeye, turning in a .335/.487/.665 season in his final year. But he struggled in his pro debut at Auburn, one of the few Doubledays batters not to enjoy a strong season. His amazing collegiate walk totals are being echoed at Charleston, but he’s still looking for a higher average and more power. He's quite young (he turns 22 on Friday), and it’s way too early to write him off yet.
Injured
DJ Hanson, RHP, 23
2004 Injured
A fairly serious shoulder problem (judged serious by the fact that he passed uncontested through waivers this spring) has sidelined Hanson for awhile. I don’t have injury updates, unfortunately: the Blue Jays, like all other major-league organizations, are taking greater care of their players’ privacy, particularly when it comes to medical matters. We won’t know for awhile what it is or how bad the damage is, but Hanson, who has had a star-crossed career with the Blue Jays, shouldn’t be counted on for the foreseeable future.
Jesse Harper, RHP, 23
2004 Injured
A spring-training injury has also kept Harper off the mound in April; there’s no official word as to his return date. If he comes back healthy, he’s good enough to be in New Hampshire by summertime.
Justin Maureau, LHP, 23
2004 Injured
Another early-season injury victim, Maureau is still working his way back into shape in extended spring training and would likely debut with Dunedin. At his age and with his struggles last year, Maureau really didn’t need to lose more time to an injury, but so it goes. His window of opportunity to become more than a LOOGY is narrowing.
Rodney Medina, OF, 22
2004 Injured
Injured after just one at-bat this season, Medina, a pre-season sleeper, has recently come off the disabled list and is playing at Dunedin. I’m looking forward to see how he performs once he gets rid of the rust.
