Please welcome Batter's Box reader Dyl as he suggests a new 5x5 format for fantasy ball.
An alternative 5x5 scoring format for fantasy baseball
by Dyl
With the amount of discussion on this website about how the current stats are not useful for determining a player's real worth, I wonder why no one has ever proposed a new scoring format.
Is it because of tradition? The ease of reporting stats like HR,RBI and Wins as opposed to Total Bases and OBP? The current format relies on statistics which cannot be solely attributed to a player's skill. For example, Bonds is a great hitter, but in fantasy circles he wouldn't be considered a lock for the first round because the lineup around him won't give him a fair amount of opportunities to score runs and RBIs. Similar, Jake Peavy is having a great season so far, but you wouldn't know it from his 1-1 record.
A new scoring format should allow you to use intuition to pick the best players, instead of esoteric formulas that show how a player's skills, team and situation predict the number of rbi-generating opportunities he will face in the season and how proficient he is at converting these opportunities.
I would like to hear what your suggestions and your reasoning for metrics should be included in a new 5x5 format. If we do hammer out a new format, and if enough people are willing, let's start a mid-season league to test it out!
I do have a couple of constraints, the most important being the use of Yahoo defined stats. This way, there is the greatest chance of adoption by other leagues since Yahoo will do most of the scoring work for you for free.
Batters
OBP - The advantages of On Base Percentage over Batting Average to help determine a batter's worth has been argued to death here and elsewhere. So I don't think I need to say more on this one.
Total Bases - Home Runs are sexier, but if we want to more accurately determine a batter's power, than all those doubles and triples have to count too. Power bats will still reign supreme since a lot of home run hitters get a lot of two baggers as well and the added bonus is that mid-power guys will get recognition over slap hitters.
Stolen Base - Yes, yes, a steal is not worth as much as an out in most cases. Still you have to admire those guys who can steal bases at will and give their team an improved scoring chance. One of the reasons I prefer 5x5 over 4x4 is that steals are not as valuable in 5x5.
FLD% - Fielding Percentage is not the ideal metric to measure the defensive prowess of a position player. But it is adequate when combined with positional requirements. Fielding percentages measure the ability of players to make defensive plays and not make a fielding error. Yes it would be better if this category could also factor in defensive range, but you take what you can get from Yahoo.
Runs - I really can't think of a fifth stat at the moment. I would probably lean towards using Runs since it would somewhat measures how good a player's base-running judgment is (not getting picked off, knowing when to take off after a hit and when to wait, etc.)
Pitchers
WHIP - probably the most important statistic for a pitcher. The less runners you allow on the bases, the less chance that a run will be scored on you.
Strikeouts - A strikeout is a better way of preventing a batter to reach base than allowing a flyball or grounder because then the pitcher doesn't have to rely on his team's defense to get the out.
Runs Scored - In the end, a pitcher has to be able to limit how many runs are scored while he's on the mound. ERA doesn't do it because it suffers from the fallacy of when exactly is a run and 'earned' one. I resist turning this stat into a rate stat because I think its easier to simply aggregate how many runs a pitcher has allowed and because rate stats are prone to abuse (see LIMA plan).
IP - Innings Played is a category I like because it does reflect how efficient and effective a pitcher is with his pitches. The longer he can go for, the less need for the rest of the bullpen to expend their energy to close out the game. Rather the bullpen can save that energy for the next game. Although many mediocre starting pitchers could do well in this category, would you want to insert one in and risk a horrible WHIP or runs scored? No.
G - Games played in. Probably the most controversial of my picks. I wanted a category that would show which relief pitchers would be considered the bullpen ace or the fireman that really puts out the fires. My belief is that the number of games that a reliever plays in shows the amount of trust the team manager has in a particular reliever to hold batters off the bags. If anyone could think of a better stats to use than # of Games then I would be happy to hear about it.
So there you go, those are my ten category picks for what should be a revolutionary way to play fantasy baseball. One based not on exploiting the team situations that a players finds himself playing in, but one where the player's skills are used to win the fantasy prize.
An alternative 5x5 scoring format for fantasy baseball
by Dyl
With the amount of discussion on this website about how the current stats are not useful for determining a player's real worth, I wonder why no one has ever proposed a new scoring format.
Is it because of tradition? The ease of reporting stats like HR,RBI and Wins as opposed to Total Bases and OBP? The current format relies on statistics which cannot be solely attributed to a player's skill. For example, Bonds is a great hitter, but in fantasy circles he wouldn't be considered a lock for the first round because the lineup around him won't give him a fair amount of opportunities to score runs and RBIs. Similar, Jake Peavy is having a great season so far, but you wouldn't know it from his 1-1 record.
A new scoring format should allow you to use intuition to pick the best players, instead of esoteric formulas that show how a player's skills, team and situation predict the number of rbi-generating opportunities he will face in the season and how proficient he is at converting these opportunities.
I would like to hear what your suggestions and your reasoning for metrics should be included in a new 5x5 format. If we do hammer out a new format, and if enough people are willing, let's start a mid-season league to test it out!
I do have a couple of constraints, the most important being the use of Yahoo defined stats. This way, there is the greatest chance of adoption by other leagues since Yahoo will do most of the scoring work for you for free.
Batters
OBP - The advantages of On Base Percentage over Batting Average to help determine a batter's worth has been argued to death here and elsewhere. So I don't think I need to say more on this one.
Total Bases - Home Runs are sexier, but if we want to more accurately determine a batter's power, than all those doubles and triples have to count too. Power bats will still reign supreme since a lot of home run hitters get a lot of two baggers as well and the added bonus is that mid-power guys will get recognition over slap hitters.
Stolen Base - Yes, yes, a steal is not worth as much as an out in most cases. Still you have to admire those guys who can steal bases at will and give their team an improved scoring chance. One of the reasons I prefer 5x5 over 4x4 is that steals are not as valuable in 5x5.
FLD% - Fielding Percentage is not the ideal metric to measure the defensive prowess of a position player. But it is adequate when combined with positional requirements. Fielding percentages measure the ability of players to make defensive plays and not make a fielding error. Yes it would be better if this category could also factor in defensive range, but you take what you can get from Yahoo.
Runs - I really can't think of a fifth stat at the moment. I would probably lean towards using Runs since it would somewhat measures how good a player's base-running judgment is (not getting picked off, knowing when to take off after a hit and when to wait, etc.)
Pitchers
WHIP - probably the most important statistic for a pitcher. The less runners you allow on the bases, the less chance that a run will be scored on you.
Strikeouts - A strikeout is a better way of preventing a batter to reach base than allowing a flyball or grounder because then the pitcher doesn't have to rely on his team's defense to get the out.
Runs Scored - In the end, a pitcher has to be able to limit how many runs are scored while he's on the mound. ERA doesn't do it because it suffers from the fallacy of when exactly is a run and 'earned' one. I resist turning this stat into a rate stat because I think its easier to simply aggregate how many runs a pitcher has allowed and because rate stats are prone to abuse (see LIMA plan).
IP - Innings Played is a category I like because it does reflect how efficient and effective a pitcher is with his pitches. The longer he can go for, the less need for the rest of the bullpen to expend their energy to close out the game. Rather the bullpen can save that energy for the next game. Although many mediocre starting pitchers could do well in this category, would you want to insert one in and risk a horrible WHIP or runs scored? No.
G - Games played in. Probably the most controversial of my picks. I wanted a category that would show which relief pitchers would be considered the bullpen ace or the fireman that really puts out the fires. My belief is that the number of games that a reliever plays in shows the amount of trust the team manager has in a particular reliever to hold batters off the bags. If anyone could think of a better stats to use than # of Games then I would be happy to hear about it.
So there you go, those are my ten category picks for what should be a revolutionary way to play fantasy baseball. One based not on exploiting the team situations that a players finds himself playing in, but one where the player's skills are used to win the fantasy prize.
