The 2004 MLB First Year Player Draft on June 7th is rich in college pitching. It’s expected that Jered Weaver of Long Beach State and Justin Verlander of Old Dominion will go to San Diego and Detroit with the top 2 picks of the draft. The rest of the first round is expected to be dominated by pitching as well.
YOUR Toronto Blue Jays have the 16th selection in the first round. With an exceptionally weak hitting class it’d be no surprise to see the Jays look toward selecting a pitcher or two at the top of the draft.
In addition to their normal picks the Jays also picked up 2 additional draft choices for Escobar signing with the Angels. One is a sandwich pick between round 1 and 2, and the 2nd pick is the Angels' 3rd round pick.
Below is a list and profile of 25 top college pitching prospects.
First, a few notes on the statistics shown:
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. A discussion of FIP can be found here. The lower the score the better. Calculations are made on the raw, unadjusted college statistics.
xRSAA: Adjusted runs saved above average. This statistic was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college statistics for park effects and competition.
RA+: Adjusted runs allowed. Similar to ERA+ this is a rate stat with 100 as a midpoint. Again, this was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college stats for park effects and competition
Adjusted stats are only available for 2003. However, for 2004 you can get a rough idea of how a player would stack up based on the improvement (or decline) in stats from the previous year. While competition and park factors will change year to year I think generally you can assume that each school will have similar adjustments year to year.
2004 statistics are based on games played through April 24th.
To learn more about each of the players on the list click on their name for detailed profiles.
Onto the rankings!
#1 Jered Weaver – Long Beach St
Brother of Jeff Weaver of the Dodgers and a cousin of Jed Weaver of the SF 49ers, Jered has been the dominant pitcher in college baseball at Long Beach State this year. Weaver is expected to be the top pick of the draft going to the Padres.
#2 Wade Townsend – Rice
The first of a trio of similar top Rice starting pitchers. Townsend has remained remarkably consistent the past 2 seasons.
#3 Phillip Humber – Rice
Humber hasn’t been as consistent as Townsend year to year but statistically has been pretty similar to Townsend this season.
#4 Jeff Niemann – Rice
Niemann is perhaps the highest regarded of the 3 Rice starters, but has been slowed a bit by injuries this year logging 25-30 fewer innings than his teammates this season. In 2003 Niemann led the nation in xRSAA.
#5 Justin Verlander – Old Dominion
A dominant 3 year starter at Old Dominion, many people believe that he has the highest upside of any draft eligible player. Control is Verlander’s biggest problem at this point and there has to be a little concern about his walk rate rising this year. The Tigers are expected to select Verlander with the 2nd pick of the draft if you believe Peter Gammons.
#6 Jeremy Sowers – Vanderbilt
The top rated lefthander in the draft. Sowers has gradually improved in each of his three years at Vanderbilt. The main difference between Sowers and those ahead of him on the list is the strikeout rate.
#7 JP Howell – Texas
Right behind Sowers, and another southpaw, Howell has likely moved up in the draft due to his increasing strikeout rate to go with his already low ERA.
#8 Thomas Diamond – New Orleans
A pick that journalists would like to see so they could use headlines such as ‘Jays find Diamond in the rough’ or ‘Diamond pitches a gem’. Diamond has really improved his walk rate this season to go with his already strong strikeout rate.
#9 Justin Orenduff – Virginia Commonwealth
Transferred to VCU after a freshman season at George Washington. Orenduff has posted freakishly similar rate strikeout and walk rates the past 3 years, and has improved his homerun rate in 2004.
#10 Matt Campbell – South Carolina
My third rated LH starter, Campbell has a nifty 5.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio pitching for the Gamecocks. The drop in his walk rate this season, and from the season before that, is remarkable. The longer this holds up, the higher up the draft he’ll climb.
#11 Huston Street – Texas
If a team is looking for someone to contribute right away, similar to Wagner and Cordero last year, they may take a shot at the Texas closer. The runaway leader in RA+ last year among current year draftees.
#12 Billy Buckner – South Carolina
The 2nd starter from South Carolina, Buckner transferred to USC prior to this season. While his statistics are limited to this year, they are an impressive small sample size.
#13 Josh Baker – Rice
A 4th starter at Rice, Baker could be a bit of a sleeper as he’s often overshadowed by the trio of his more highly regarded teammates.
#14 Matt Durkin- San Jose St
While Durkin’s ERA has risen this season, his rate stats have remained relatively constant. Based on his strong adjusted stats, he could be a sleeper in the draft.
#15 Zach Jackson – Texas A&M
The 4th lefty on this list, Jackson has shown steady improvement in his 3 years in college. His strikeout rate and homerun rates have both improved fairly significantly this season.
#16 Steven Register – Auburn
If a team misses out on Street they could always go for Register who closes out games at Auburn.
Best of the Rest:
#17 Glen Perkins - Minnesota
#18 Chris Lambert – Boston College
#19 Micah Owings – Georgia Tech
#20 David Purcey - Oklahoma
#21 Russ Ohlendorf - Princeton
#22 Tyler Lumsden - Clemson
#23 Matt Fox – Central Florida
#24 Michael Rogers – NC State
#25 Brett Smith – UC Irvine
If the Jays were to take a pitcher with their first round pick who might they take? My early guess is that the Jays want to get a top left handed starter to go with all of the strong right handed prospects currently in the minors. Sowers and Howell are likely to be gone by the time the Jays pick comes up, but Matt Durkin is a possibility out of San Jose St.
YOUR Toronto Blue Jays have the 16th selection in the first round. With an exceptionally weak hitting class it’d be no surprise to see the Jays look toward selecting a pitcher or two at the top of the draft.
In addition to their normal picks the Jays also picked up 2 additional draft choices for Escobar signing with the Angels. One is a sandwich pick between round 1 and 2, and the 2nd pick is the Angels' 3rd round pick.
Below is a list and profile of 25 top college pitching prospects.
First, a few notes on the statistics shown:
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. A discussion of FIP can be found here. The lower the score the better. Calculations are made on the raw, unadjusted college statistics.
xRSAA: Adjusted runs saved above average. This statistic was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college statistics for park effects and competition.
RA+: Adjusted runs allowed. Similar to ERA+ this is a rate stat with 100 as a midpoint. Again, this was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college stats for park effects and competition
Adjusted stats are only available for 2003. However, for 2004 you can get a rough idea of how a player would stack up based on the improvement (or decline) in stats from the previous year. While competition and park factors will change year to year I think generally you can assume that each school will have similar adjustments year to year.
2004 statistics are based on games played through April 24th.
To learn more about each of the players on the list click on their name for detailed profiles.
Onto the rankings!
#1 Jered Weaver – Long Beach St
Brother of Jeff Weaver of the Dodgers and a cousin of Jed Weaver of the SF 49ers, Jered has been the dominant pitcher in college baseball at Long Beach State this year. Weaver is expected to be the top pick of the draft going to the Padres.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.13 87.2 13.6 1.2 0.2 -2.3
2003 1.96 133.1 9.7 1.4 0.5 -1.0 79.6 268
#2 Wade Townsend – Rice
The first of a trio of similar top Rice starting pitchers. Townsend has remained remarkably consistent the past 2 seasons.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.28 84.2 11.2 3.5 0.3 -0.9
2003 2.20 118.2 12.5 3.5 0.2 -1.4 65.1 284
2002 2.28 51.1 9.0 3.9 0.7 0.3
#3 Phillip Humber – Rice
Humber hasn’t been as consistent as Townsend year to year but statistically has been pretty similar to Townsend this season.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.41 76.2 11.9 2.5 0.2 -1.5
2003 3.30 128.0 9.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 54.8 204
2002 2.77 110.2 10.6 3.5 0.7 -0.2
#4 Jeff Niemann – Rice
Niemann is perhaps the highest regarded of the 3 Rice starters, but has been slowed a bit by injuries this year logging 25-30 fewer innings than his teammates this season. In 2003 Niemann led the nation in xRSAA.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 2.59 55.2 10.3 2.9 0.5 -0.6
2003 1.70 137.1 10.2 2.3 0.4 -0.9 77.6 370
2002 3.11 66.2 7.2 3.7 0.1 -0.2
#5 Justin Verlander – Old Dominion
A dominant 3 year starter at Old Dominion, many people believe that he has the highest upside of any draft eligible player. Control is Verlander’s biggest problem at this point and there has to be a little concern about his walk rate rising this year. The Tigers are expected to select Verlander with the 2nd pick of the draft if you believe Peter Gammons.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.67 76.0 12.8 4.3 0.7 -0.4
2003 2.40 116.1 10.8 3.3 0.2 -1.1 46.6 194
2002 1.90 113.2 10.9 3.4 0.2 -1.1
#6 Jeremy Sowers – Vanderbilt
The top rated lefthander in the draft. Sowers has gradually improved in each of his three years at Vanderbilt. The main difference between Sowers and those ahead of him on the list is the strikeout rate.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.10 69.2 9.6 1.6 0.5 -0.9
2003 2.50 115.0 9.6 2.3 0.5 -0.6 51.7 225
2002 4.37 101.0 7.6 2.8 0.8 0.4
#7 JP Howell – Texas
Right behind Sowers, and another southpaw, Howell has likely moved up in the draft due to his increasing strikeout rate to go with his already low ERA.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.90 80.2 11.8 3.4 0.4 -0.8
2003 2.52 114.1 8.3 3.4 0.2 -0.4 52.9 230
#8 Thomas Diamond – New Orleans
A pick that journalists would like to see so they could use headlines such as ‘Jays find Diamond in the rough’ or ‘Diamond pitches a gem’. Diamond has really improved his walk rate this season to go with his already strong strikeout rate.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 2.81 80.0 12.0 3.4 0.8 -0.4
2003 5.79 37.1 10.7 6.1 20.2 168
#9 Justin Orenduff – Virginia Commonwealth
Transferred to VCU after a freshman season at George Washington. Orenduff has posted freakishly similar rate strikeout and walk rates the past 3 years, and has improved his homerun rate in 2004.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 2.71 76.1 11.4 2.5 0.2 -1.4
2003 2.27 95.0 11.4 2.5 0.8 -0.6 36 234
2002 1.68 59.0 11.9 2.9
#10 Matt Campbell – South Carolina
My third rated LH starter, Campbell has a nifty 5.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio pitching for the Gamecocks. The drop in his walk rate this season, and from the season before that, is remarkable. The longer this holds up, the higher up the draft he’ll climb.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.14 66.0 11.0 2.0 0.4 -1.2
2003 3.48 82.2 9.0 5.1 0.3 0.2 23.2 138
2002 2.43 37.0 10.7 7.5 0.5 0.8
#11 Huston Street – Texas
If a team is looking for someone to contribute right away, similar to Wagner and Cordero last year, they may take a shot at the Texas closer. The runaway leader in RA+ last year among current year draftees.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.27 28.1 9.3 2.6 0.3 -0.7
2003 1.33 74.1 8.4 1.6 0.4 -0.8 50.3 471
2002 0.96 47.0 9.4 1.7 0.4 -1.0
#12 Billy Buckner – South Carolina
The 2nd starter from South Carolina, Buckner transferred to USC prior to this season. While his statistics are limited to this year, they are an impressive small sample size.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.32 59.2 11.3 2.4 1.1 -0.2
#13 Josh Baker – Rice
A 4th starter at Rice, Baker could be a bit of a sleeper as he’s often overshadowed by the trio of his more highly regarded teammates.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.25 63.2 8.5 4.4 0.3 0.0
2003 3.22 95.0 6.7 2.7 0.7 0.4 38.2 227
#14 Matt Durkin- San Jose St
While Durkin’s ERA has risen this season, his rate stats have remained relatively constant. Based on his strong adjusted stats, he could be a sleeper in the draft.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 4.43 85.1 9.0 3.9 0.3 -0.2
2003 2.60 100.1 9.9 3.8 0.4 -0.4 42.6 235
2002 2.75 98.1 7.8 2.2 0.0 -1.0
#15 Zach Jackson – Texas A&M
The 4th lefty on this list, Jackson has shown steady improvement in his 3 years in college. His strikeout rate and homerun rates have both improved fairly significantly this season.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.61 72.1 9.6 2.1 0.5 -0.7
2003 4.31 112.2 6.0 2.3 1.0 0.8 14.7 110
2002 4.77 83.0 5.0 2.6 0.9 1.0
#16 Steven Register – Auburn
If a team misses out on Street they could always go for Register who closes out games at Auburn.
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.93 37.1 8.2 1.7 0.7 -0.2
2003 2.94 52.0 10.6 1.2 0.9 -0.7 25.1 187
Best of the Rest:
#17 Glen Perkins - Minnesota
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.26 60.2 8.2 2.4 0.9 0.3
2003 2.91 105.1 10.0 2.0 0.4 -1.0 42.8 217
#18 Chris Lambert – Boston College
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.77 57.1 10.1 5.5 0.5 0.3
2003 2.71 79.2 10.0 4.3 0.2 -0.5 23.7 174
#19 Micah Owings – Georgia Tech
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.46 65.0 9.1 3.5 1.4 1.1
2003 3.99 88.0 5.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 27.8 163
#20 David Purcey - Oklahoma
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.12 75.0 10.2 4.4 0.5 -0.1
2003 5.20 72.2 8.4 5.1 0.5 0.6 24.4 126
2002 3.35 75.1 10.1 5.3 0.4 0.0
#21 Russ Ohlendorf - Princeton
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 4.02 47.0 10.9 4.2 0.2 -0.7
2003 3.57 45.1 9.4 3.8 0.2 -0.5 8.3 125
2002 3.08 52.2 8.8 3.8 0.0 -0.7
#22 Tyler Lumsden - Clemson
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 3.49 49.0 9.9 3.9 0.6 -0.1
2003 3.77 86.0 7.5 3.2 19.6 122
2002 5.28 58.0 9.8 6.1
#23 Matt Fox – Central Florida
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.24 72.1 10.7 2.6 0.4 -1.0
#24 Michael Rogers – NC State
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 2.41 78.1 9.0 1.6 0.5 -0.8
2003 3.02 125.0 8.1 2.4 0.6 -0.1 34.2 139
2002 3.63 39.2 9.4 4.1 0.2 -0.4
#25 Brett Smith – UC Irvine
Year ERA Inn K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP xRSAA RA+
2004 1.77 71.0 9.3 2.3 0.4 -0.7
2003 3.71 102.0 7.7 3.4 0.2 -0.3 17.2 138
2002 5.31 84.2 7.5 4.8 0.6 0.9
If the Jays were to take a pitcher with their first round pick who might they take? My early guess is that the Jays want to get a top left handed starter to go with all of the strong right handed prospects currently in the minors. Sowers and Howell are likely to be gone by the time the Jays pick comes up, but Matt Durkin is a possibility out of San Jose St.
