Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - How The Minor League Hitters Have Performed So Far

How The Minor League Hitters Have Performed So Far

I don't know about the rest of you, but the minor league updates have become the feature I look most forward to when I come to the Box first thing in the morning. It's fun to see which players have performed well the night before. Unfortunately, other than the 3 star stats, I have trouble keeping track of who is hitting and who isn't. So I collected some batting stats from the minor leagues. These are pretty much as raw as you can get: unadjusted by league difficulty, position difficulty, park effects, phases of the moon, etc. Plus there's the whole sample size thing. So don't take any of these seriously, it's just for fun:

Last 	First	AB	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
Cosby	Rob 	17	1	0	1	.529	.529	.765	.429
Roberts	Ryan	53	4	12	6	.434	.552	.717	.428
Whittak	Tim	2	0	1	1	.500	.667	.500	.425
Tablado	Raul	35	3	4	9	.343	.410	.714	.363
Logan	Matt	18	0	3	3	.444	.524	.500	.361
Chiarav	Vito	62	3	10	12	.339	.442	.629	.356
Hermans	Chad	19	2	0	8	.368	.333	.789	.347
Wolfe	Joey	16	0	2	5	.313	.500	.438	.335
Umbria	Jose	16	1	0	4	.375	.375	.563	.310
Gallowa	Mike	46	1	5	13	.326	.392	.522	.307
Rich	Dominic	53	1	4	5	.340	.397	.509	.306
Pond	Simon	45	1	3	12	.333	.375	.533	.302
Quiroz	Guiller	45	2	8	9	.289	.389	.489	.297
Kratz	Erik	5	0	1	1	.200	.429	.400	.293
Davis	Morrin	23	1	4	8	.304	.407	.435	.292
Tingler	Jayce	63	0	12	3	.302	.430	.365	.285
Rios	Alexis	75	3	3	12	.280	.308	.507	.265
Negron	Miguel	64	2	7	15	.281	.365	.391	.262
Johnson	Clint	59	1	11	14	.237	.347	.407	.258
Guiel	Jeff	28	0	5	7	.250	.353	.393	.257
Adams	Russ	62	0	7	5	.258	.347	.403	.257
Patrick	Brian	27	1	4	3	.259	.344	.407	.257
Fagan	Shawn	31	1	8	6	.226	.385	.323	.254
Snavely	Christi	41	1	8	17	.244	.360	.366	.254
Smith	David	50	3	7	15	.220	.328	.420	.253
William	Glenn	60	6	0	17	.233	.246	.567	.252
Clark	Howie	32	1	10	4	.188	.381	.313	.250
Dragice	Scott	52	0	9	15	.250	.361	.327	.244
Zaun	Gregg	23	0	2	5	.304	.346	.348	.243
Reiman	Joey	30	0	5	8	.267	.378	.267	.237
Arnold	Eric	39	0	5	6	.256	.348	.282	.227
Gross	Gabe	61	1	2	16	.279	.302	.361	.226
Cota	Carlo	61	0	7	14	.230	.319	.311	.221
Sequea	Jorge	67	0	6	10	.254	.333	.284	.221
Hassey	Brad	30	0	4	5	.233	.324	.300	.221
Diaz	Robinso	60	0	2	4	.300	.323	.300	.220
Waugh	Jason	11	0	1	2	.273	.333	.273	.218
Peralta	Juan	41	0	3	4	.244	.311	.293	.213
Davenpo	Ron	59	2	4	8	.203	.254	.390	.212
Hall	Noah	53	1	7	12	.189	.328	.245	.209
Singlet	Justin	33	1	8	15	.121	.293	.303	.208
Hill	Aaron	46	0	8	10	.217	.327	.239	.207
Griffin	John-Fo	33	0	5	16	.182	.289	.273	.198
Solano	Danny	40	0	1	6	.225	.244	.350	.197
Waugh	Jason	32	0	3	7	.219	.306	.219	.192
Rivera	Willie	60	1	3	13	.200	.258	.300	.191
Snyder	Mike	36	1	6	7	.139	.262	.250	.180
Whittak	Tim	39	0	7	12	.154	.298	.179	.179
Chiaffr	Paul	32	0	2	7	.156	.229	.188	.150
Mayorso	Manuel	56	0	3	5	.161	.203	.196	.140
Jova	Maikel	44	0	1	10	.182	.196	.205	.139
Schneid	John	20	0	1	8	.150	.190	.200	.136
Godwin	Tyrell	48	0	4	7	.125	.192	.188	.133
Yepez	Jose	30	0	1	7	.100	.129	.133	.091
Medina	Rodney	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Posted by Pepper Moffatt on Monday, April 26 2004 @ 02:47 AM EDT.

How The Minor League Hitters Have Performed So Far | 21 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_earlweaverfan - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#69773) #

_Moffatt - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#69774) #

Meanwhile, Ryan Roberts looks like he has a lot more power potential than the low level hype has given him credit for.

Well, there's sample size and all that, but you've got to be impressed with a guy who has twice as many walks as hits and still has power. There's a ton of guys who can rack of both walks and Ks, and a bunch of guys who can do neither, but if you've got someone who can get on a base a ton without striking out much, you've got something good.

You've got to love Ryan Robert's college stats last year (click on his name for his stats). .422/.514/.765 in 62 games for U Texas-Arlington. So far he looks like a steal for an 18th round draftpick.

Glenn Williams stats jump out like a sore thumb.. 17 strikeouts, *0* walks and 6 homeruns in 60 AB. Is he trying to hit a grand slam during every AB?

Mike D - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#69775) #

unadjusted by league difficulty, position difficulty, park effects, phases of the moon

Moffatt, the next time you do this, please adjust for phases of the moon.

Mike Green - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#69776) #

Quiroz is progressing nicely; I think that the Jays would be happy if he hits .289/.389/.489 with an even K/W ratio.

_Tassle - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#69777) #

Whoah, did Rios ever develop power. I honestly think he's going to be a 40-home run threat, though noone will ever mistake him for Adam Dunn. Right now, he honestly looks like a carbon copy of Vernon Wells, which would certainly not be a bad thing if he can hit .300 in the bigs.

_R Billie - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#69778) #

The only big story to jump out at me so far is how the position players who have had most of the hype - Russ Adams and Aaron Hill - have a proven ability to walk but no pronounced ability to hit, so far.

I don't know about that. The above list is not adjusted for age or level of competition. Roberts performing in low-A is a lot difference from Adams holding his own in AAA at virtually the same age. And it's a lot different from Hill starting slowly in AA and being a year and a half younger.

That's not to take away from what Ryan Roberts is doing in Charleston which isn't a great hitting environment but he's facing a lot of 18-19 year old pitchers.

Besides which I think Adams has started fairly well in AAA. We know over the long run he can hit for a decent average but he's also playing defence and adding some gap power now while not striking out very often and still taking his walks. I think the indicators for him are fairly positive.

Once some hits start falling in for Hill he should be fine. This is a pretty big challenge for him. Recall how Gross struggled his first full year in AA.

_Moffatt - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#69779) #

Plus you have to take into account phases of the moon.

Gerry - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#69780) #

Beware the small sample size! The top player on the list, Rob Cosby, is gone for the year after knee surgery. The third player, Whittaker, should be combined with his other half who has much poorer stats for Dunedin further down the list. The fourth player, Tablado, is on the DL, the fifth, Logan, is just back from starting the season on the DL.

I think Jordan pointed out earlier today that you need at least 100 AB's before you make any judgements based on these numbers.

_Ryan Day - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#69781) #

Disturbing trend: Gabe Gross' strikezone judgment appears to have vanished. Even during his prior struggles, you could look at his numbers and see lots of walks. Scouts and coaches would talk about a great approach at the plate with a lot of bad luck.

Now he's hacking like Rios, but without the power. Granted, the moon may be waxing in Syracuse, but that sill ain't good.

(I think "phases of the moon" is now officially a dead horse)

_Ducey - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#69782) #

Interesting that Negron is right behind Rios on the list.

So far he looks like a steal for an 18th round draftpick.
I agree on Roberts, but whats up with 6th rounder Snavely? He hit a measly .255/.332/.317 with no taters in 208AB in Auburn last year. Mose of the same this year with 17K in 41 AB. Yikes!

_John Neary - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#69783) #

What's up with 6th rounder Snavely?

Snavely is the only one of the Jays' first eleven draft picks who hasn't been promising so far. How many other teams can say that?

_Sneeps - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#69784) #

Snavely has started to hit and walk a bit lately.

His OBP% is .360, nothing special, but it's probably above average.

Mike Green - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#69785) #

http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/2003/JuneR/d4.shtml
John, I agree completely. The 2003 draft looks absolutely great. Of course, you can't see it in the stats above because most of the early drafts were pitchers.

Ducey, a 6th rounder who does not develop is par for the course. COMN for the 4th round of the 2003 draft. The Jays' pick in that round was Kurt Isenberg, who did very well at Auburn last year, and has started off the season in the same fashion in Dunedin. You can click on other picks from that round, and you'll find a lot of players struggling like Snavely.

_Jordan - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#69786) #

Gross's K/BB ratio is certainly worth attention, but I'm not too alarmed yet. He had a very slow start to the year in which he couldn't get on base no way no how; now that he's picking it up and seeing the ball better, he's not drawing as many walks. And really, we're dealing with less than a month of data here. I think that by the end of May, you'll see his walks total and OBP back where they belong.

I second the motion to be more patient with Hill. He's had only 65 games before this season, split evenly between Short-season A and High-A Ball; now he's at Double-A. I think it's remarkable he's doing this well at all. That BB rate gives me a lot of confidence.

_John Neary - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#69787) #

Four other college outfielders were taken in the sixth round last year.

Cory Patton (Padres, #161) didn't play professional ball
Eric Sultemeier (Orioles, #164) hit .153/.242/.237 in 59 AB in rookie, short-season, and low-A ball.
Adam Bourassa (Rangers, #166) hit .220/.358/.259 in short-season ball.
Snavely (Jays, #170) hit .255/.332/.317 in 208 AB in short-season ball.
Chris Kelly (White Sox, #172) hit .245/.292/.390 in 200 AB in rookie ball.

I'd take Snavely over any of the others at first glance.

Not many good players come out of the sixth round. I agree with Mike: for the Jays to have drafted ten reasonable prospects in the first eleven rounds is simply incredible.

_Sneeps - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#69788) #

At this point, who is the favorite to be the best or most productive player for the Jays from the '03 draft.

It's early, but I'd go w/ Banks. He's just lighting up A ball hitters.

_Dean - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#69789) #

Baseball America had an on line chat today about the minors and Mike from London, would that be you Mr Moffat, asked about Banks. John Manuel thought he just needs to polish his off-spped stuff and he would project as a 2nd or 3rd starter.

_Moffatt - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#69790) #

Not me, no. That's interesting, though. I would have asked about Jason Arnold. :)

_Ducey - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#69791) #

John, Mike,

I am not being critical, just greedy - I think the Jays did a nice job. You just would expect the higher round guys to do better than the later guys. Last year's crop of later round guys Vito 15th, Roberts 18th, and even a guy like Brian Reed 27th round (1.99 ERA, 40W/H in 40 IP, 53K last year) seem to be doing better than Snavely.

_John Neary - Monday, April 26 2004 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#69792) #

Ducey,

I agree that in aggregate you would expect the higher round guys to do better. But you never know how each individual pick will turn out -- there's no way the Jays could tell in advance that Vito, Roberts, and Reed would be that good. You get lucky on some, and you get unlucky on some.

Anyway, I think we've beaten this topic to death...

John

_R Billie - Tuesday, April 27 2004 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#69793) #

The main reason Snavely was selected where he was is because of his athletic ability relative to those later picks. I think he was also a second baseman in college for a time despite being quite tall and lanky. In other words his tools were better. But we all know tools are great to have but not a guarantee of performance. Maybe Snavely will come around in time.

It's quite possible that the Jays liked Ryan Roberts' potential as much as Snavely's or close to as much given his performance in college. But they could afford to wait until the 18th round on him and until the 15th round on Vito because they knew they wouldn't be on other teams' radars high up. So they took a chance on pitchers and more athletic players earlier and got the performance guys later.

And let's face it, once you get past the 5th round or so a healthy dose of luck comes into play. But there's no doubt the Jays used a good strategy in 2003 to maximize their returns. If you have more than half of your top 15 picks performing at a decent rate in the minors then you've done something right.

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