Okay, I have a question.

In the Clark/Hermanson thread, Jimmy Key's Christmas Lights speculated on the likelihood of a 72-win season. I've seen other projections by people using Diamond Mind and PECOTA and whatnot, and they seem unanimous in their prediction that the Jays are going to drop back five to fifteen games from their 86-win '03 season.

This is after the Jays significantly bolstered their pitching staff while retaining almost the entire cast of characters that finished second in the league in runs scored, and taking into account that the minor league system is loaded with exciting kids who could start contributing as early as this year.

So my question . . . questions, really . . . are:

a) How is this possible? How can a team doing so many things right be losing so much ground relative to the league?

b) If it is true, what's the point of there being Blue Jays? If increasing on-paper improvement only leads to increasing on-field failure, why not just pack it in?

Note that my questions aren't even taking into account the 3-10 start.

Tonight's Lineups, for those who can't wait another 25 minutes?

Bellhorn
Mueller
Ortiz
Ramirez
Millar
Burks
Kapler
Mirabelli
Reese

Catalanatto
Hinske
Wells
Delgado
Phelps
Myers
Johnson
Hudson
Gomez

prediction: 7-5 Toronto (I can only hope)

Anyone know where this is going to be on the internet? The first palce or two I try seem to always fail, so any number of choices would be appreciated ;-) We're having some TV problems, and I'm just a little bored. A game would be nice to listen to.

Ugh, leadoff walk to Bellhorn. Roll up a pair Ted!

Jamie Campbell had an amusing flub in the opening:

"It's raining in Toronto...and that's because the roof is closed."

what's the point of there being Blue Jays?

If you take it to the extreme, what is the point of Oilers, Flames, half the NHL, and 3/4 of MLB. You could ask the same question about the Marlins before last year.

I don't think you would be asking this question if they Jays were 10-3. It seems to me that the point is that any team will have down times. For the Yankees these will be few, the Jays often, but the Jays appear to be doing everything well, and eventually (apparently not this year) they will win enought to be contenders.

It could be worse, you could be a Pirates fan.

Interestingly according to gameday Manny Ramirez is having a battle with Tim Wakefield. When did we sign him?? Just kidding of course.
Any links to listen to the game?

Donkit, have you tried CJCS for an Internet feed? It's usually pretty reliable.

Scoreless after one, with a double play erasing the leadoff walk. Myers, who I was expecting to face Schilling tomorrow, has figured out that Lilly likes to use his changeup; they had Ramirez off-balance the whole at-bat and blew a 3-2 fastball by him for the K.

Ducey: If the Jays were 10-3 I might not be asking the question, but that'd be because I was confident enough to ignore the projections. It wouldn't mean the projections weren't there.

And what the projections seem to say is that, never mind the Yankees, the Jays are going to have trouble competing with anybody, and that the league as a whole is getting better faster than the Jays are getting better. That, for some reason, the Jays are at an overwhelming evolutionary disadvantage compared to everybody else.

It could be that the projections are flawed; I could easily believe that. It could be that I'm not taking everything into account in interpreting them. Or I could just be being really pessimistic; that seems to be happening a lot these days too.

Lilly has looked strong. He really does remind me of Escobar though. He's thrown 39 pitches through 2 innings and will have trouble going more than 5 or so innings. Still,its nice not being down by 3 or 4 runs after 2 innings so I'm calling this a victory even if they don't ultimately end up winning the came in the official score sheet! :)

Thanks, Coach. Now that you mention it I have used CJCS successfully before. I'll have to bookmark it this time.

Another good place to listen on line is CKRU.

A two-out single for Myers and a double by Sparky, but no chance for the lumbering Crash to score from first. O-Dog lined out to center to end the threat; still scoreless. Cerutti pointed out that the Jays have had only one (brief) lead in the previous seven home games.

Solo shot by Mirabelli, and the home team is playing catch-up again.

Nigel, I'm not sure I agree with your comparison of Lilly to Escobar. Yes, this game he's thrown a lot of pitches, but it's been a different situation. Lilly has really thrown some quality pitches that the Red Sox have done well just to foul off. With Escobar it was more throw it as hard as you can and we'll see. Hitters would foul off pitches down the middle (not that Escobar knew it was going to end up there) because it was in the 90's. But either way, he DOES have to be more effecient in the coming innings to stick around.

Another bit of bad luck for the Jays as they strand two in scoring position on a Hudson bullet right to center. Argh, and in fitting Jays '04 fashion, right when they fail an opportunity, the opponent immediately pounces in the next inning-Mirabelli HR and it's 1-0 Sox.

Sox have a HR and 1B from their 8 and 9 hitters. The Jays could sure use that...

Sox have a HR and 1B from their 8 and 9 hitters. The Jays could sure use that... from their 3 and 4 hitters.

The second link it is, Coach. 980 KRUZ just in time for a Lilly K :-)

from their 3 and 4 hitters.
A good point Mike!

Is it Wilner doing color? I'm not familiar with the announcers yet, but the color guy seems to be SABR inclined, talking about the value of an out and OBP.

Great sliding catch by Cat to save a run in the 3rd on a Manny sinking liner.

Nice catch by Catalanotto to save a run and get out of the third with no further damage, but Lilly's up to 60 pitches already.

A good point Mike!

I've got Wells in the BBFL, so it hasn't gone unnoticed. Could be worse: Coach has Delgado.

I've got Wells in both my leagues.

Dr. Zarco- I'd agree with your point about giving credit to the Bosox hitters re: Lilly's pitch count except that this has been his history earlier this year and all of last in Oakland (and probably before that although I haven't checked). Basically, Lilly has problems going deep in games because he throws way too many pitches to batters.

Nigel, fair enough, I haven't seen Lilly pitch enough to compare his qualities to Escobarian ones.

By the way, the comment about comparing him to Escobar isn't a total putdown, it just means that in my opinion his stuff is way too good to be screwing around with all these pitches. He could take lessons from Halladay on how to put his stuff to good use. Tbe problem is, like Escobar, he's now 27 and been in the league a few years, it may be too late for this dog to learn new tricks. Let's hope not.

Doug Mirabelli another HR? My oh my.

I'm still counting this as a victory, its taken until the 4th to be down by 3 or more. :(

Mirabelli just put one in the *fourth* deck. Where's Jason Varitek when you need him.

The home uniforms don't look as bad as I first thought.

I only realized today, watching Cat make his sliding catch, that the hats and lettering are the same blue/grey colour.

It's a unique colour, and I'm starting to like it.

jc

Way to be Crash! Nice baserunning by Carlos. Jays *can* hit Wakefield, hopefully they can keep it going with two outs.

Hooray, a run!

Myers drilled a double into the opposite-field gap, and Delgado, who had drawn a walk, scored all the way from first.

There we go. Myers drives in Carlos with a double to the wall.

I'm persistent anyway ;-)

And is it me, or has Faulds been kind of amusing tonight?

When he was babbling on about what kind of TV Lilly might have been carrying around, I actually cracked a smile.

Typical Blue Jays luck. Gomez misses a homer by about half a foot.

This is the first time I've listened to the radio crew for an extended period. I'm liking Mr. Wilner more and more.

And now Gomez bounces a double off of the top of the wall, 375 ft. from home plate.

That missed by literally 2 inches. Cash him in Frank!

Nigel, it's hard to imagine two pitchers less alike than Escobar and Lilly, a power righty and a finesse lefty. Lilly does throw a lot of pitches, because he has to set hitters up; he can't just hump three 96-mph heaters down the middle. Changing speeds and varying location leads to a lot of foul balls; tonight we've seen 9-pitch and 10-pitch strikeouts (Bellhorn and Ramirez).

Compared to Halladay, everyone is inefficient. Ted could "take lessons" from Doc for a lifetime, but he'll never be that kind of pitcher, because God didn't make him 6'6" with a thunderbolt attached to his shoulder.

Attaboy, Cat! 3-2 now, tying run at second.

Way to go Frankie!

What's the delay on the internet feed compared to the Sportsnet feed?

Yahoo still has Cat at the plate.

Donkit-it's about a minute-maybe a little more. Wells, DO something! All his oh-fers sting three times as much-having him in two leagues and then having him drag down the 3 hole for the Jays.

Wells couldn't deliver the 2-out single to tie it up; I thought he should have let the 2-1, a 60 mph wild pitch, graze his shoulder to give Carlos a chance at the 3-run bomb.

Lilly, well over 100 pitches, got ahead of Ramirez 1-2 (again) but lacks the out pitch. Hinske saved a double by knocking down a hard smash, but couldn't get up in time to throw Manny out. Ted did a great job to pop up Millar and Burks, but looked tired walking Kapler.

Frasor comes in to face Mirabelli, which means it's now time to start second-guessing Tosca's every bullpen move. I'd like to encourage more first-guessing, so we can see how clever our armchair managers are.

Nice breaking pitch on 2-1 by the rookie, then he painted the outside corner with a 3-2 fastball to get his man looking.

I'd leave Frasor in to go after Reese and turn Bellhorn around, but I'm not sure I want him facing Mueller, and definitely not Ortiz, even if he gets the next two guys easily. Adams is unavailable, so I'd have Kershner standing by. Then it will be Ligtenberg to face Manny.

This is my first look at Frasor-I thought he looked pretty solid. Got a real tough break by the first pitch not being called a strike, and while he looked to be overthrowing the fastball a touch, showed a good curve and a nice 3-2 fastball to strike out Mirabelli. I would say that Frasor's will face Reese, then be replaced by Kershner to keep Bellhorn hitting righty where he is still hitless. He'll stay in til Manny. I guess it'll depend which inning Manny comes up which righty comes in to face him. That's my effort at first guessing Coach.

Great minds think alike, Dr. Z.

Coach, for what it's worth, Lilly's K and BB rates suggest anything but a "finesse lefty". Lilly's career K/Inn of 7.8 is exactly the same as Escobar's and their BB's rates are nearly identical. Actually, their career rate stats are about as identical as two pitchers can be. And also, Lilly's K rate is better than Halladay's. Lilly is not a finesse lefty by any means. My point actually is that I think Lilly would do well to miss a few less bats rather than being able to blow more pitches by batters. I agree that he'll never be 6'6" though. :)

Right on Coach-Frasor stays on for Bellhorn.

Our disagreement on whether to face Bellhorn righty or lefty illustrates that there's no "right" answer when you're thinking ahead, but it's very easy to point fingers after something doesn't work. I guessed along with Carlos on this one, and it turned out just fine.

The skipper does leave the rookie in to face Mueller, a show of confidence.

That was quite a hook to finish off Bellhorn. Impressive stuff from the kid-and he IS staying for Mueller, I like it Tosca!

Nigel, you can observe a lot by watching. Lilly doesn't break 90, and relies on a good curve and a deceptive changeup. That's finesse, my friend. It doesn't mean he can't strike people out.

Jason Frasor looked fantastic out there, especially when your second ever ML game is against the Red Sox; he mowed them down and didn't even looked like he broke a sweat. And what can you say about that slider to Bellhorn? That was a pure Pedro-like breaking ball pitch - great stuff.

Time for the offense to move it up!

Funny thing, I am watching.

Very impressive performance by Frasor.

Here's where first-guessing gets tougher. You've already had Kershner up, but with Ortiz followed by a bunch of dangerous RH batters, do you bring in the lefty or have Ligtenberg pitch v-e-r-y carefully to Cookie Monster? You also have to allow for the possibility of extra innings. No right answers, yet there's always a horde of critics after the fact.

Yeah, my plan was long since shot, but I'd say don't waste de Los.

Actually, since he worked last night, I might use de los Santos as my LOOGY now and save Kershner in case we tie it up.

Finesse pitchers try to hit their spots on corners and have to outsmart hitters. If you can throw mid-high 90's you can just rare back and fire sometimes. Lilly, like Moyer and other finesse pitchers can't ever do that. That's what makes a finesse pitcher. They rely on corners, generous umpires, changing speeds and planes of view. Strikeouts do not make a power pitcher, power does.

Ah-that 3-1 pitch to Cat was certainly outside. The 3-2 pitch however? Gotta swing at that one.

Great pitch to throw with a man on third, Ligtenberg! Cash, with at least average speed, makes that play!

Ideally, you could pinch-hit for Cat against Embree, but with who? Woody, Berg and Cash were available.

Their LOOGY got his man, ours didn't, which proved costly. A great catch by Sparky to rob Ramirez of extra bases and an RBI; hard to believe Manny could hit it that far with one hand. I'm not criticizing Myers here, but Cash might have blocked that wild pitch -- otherwise, Kerry did his job.

It seems we haven't run out of inventive ways to lose.

I'm 97% sure this is a lost season. If they don't turn this around immediately, Tosca must pay with his job.

It seems we haven't run out of inventive ways to lose.

Amen to that.

I beginning to give up also-- but this is not the season that JP's had his eyes on. It'd be great to see improvement from last year, but lots and lots of things fell into perfect place last year. Thus far, things are all out of place, and it obviously won't stay this bad. But say they are a .500 team. From this point on, going .500 makes this team not very good overall. But who knows, maybe they win 20 seomthing games in a month again and atone for April. Maybe they are on the formerly A's path to success -- stink for a while, then rule. But I doubt it.

Wow

Do we also watch basketball here? Sounds a lot like Raptor talk with the doom and gloom.

Hey, around this time last year, the team also went on a 3-10 skid (look at the 13 games before April 21st, 2003).

I know it is hard to swallow a lot of losses like this, but if you'll let me take it further with sport analogies, a NFL team with a 0-1 record over a 16 game season is the same as a 0-16.2 record over a 162 season for a MLB team.

Bad analogies, certainly, but you have to trust that the team's philosophy and stick with them for now. Go Jays Go!

Jim, you're entitled to your opinion, but it's not the skipper who's in a hitting slump. Hinske's at .163, Hudson's at .149, Sparky's at .196, Delgado's up to .149, and Wells, popping up everything in sight tonight, is down to .228 -- all of those guys are too good for this to continue much longer. When they get back to normal, will that mean Tosca's suddenly become a good manager again?

I trust the teams philosophy, it's just time to make a change. This season is on the cusp of being completely lost. One more week of this nonsense and it's time to unload guys. You think Delgado will be back if they draw 16k all year?

The next month is a huge month in the direction of this franchise. I don't see anyway around it.

Ok - what's the right answer then? At what point do you start making changes? What changes do you make?

3-15? 4-22? What's your break point?

Mine might be 3-12. My change might be a new manager.

I firmly believe that if you make any assumptions about a baseball season before the 1/4 mark -- about 27 more games -- you're jumping to conclusions.

You can talk directly to J.P. about this at 416-870-0590 or 1-888-666-0590 -- he'll be on the post-game show with Wilner for the next hour.

In the books. Though the season is young, it gets older continually. And the Jays aren't getting any better, and they sure haven't had any luck. Though their record is probably about as bad as they have played.

It really depends on what you think the team's priorities are. My opinion is that there is a little truth in the media drivel - yes, it is impossible to fight the Yankees and the Redsox in a year where they don't have major injuries.

So you have to pick your spots, continue to build with good pitching throughout the system and JP is doing that.

Tosca has his faults, but what is important for the Blue Jays right now is to give playing time to the younger players. Phelps and Hinske in particular and don't see them down because of a slump.

At least our manager doesn't talk about making his pitchers finish their games, pitch counts be damned. Neither is he putting the worse hitters at the top of the lineup just to show off his genius. Can you imagine how frustrated you would be if Hudson is our leadoff hitter for his speed? And Woodward is our 2 hitter for his intangibles?

No, Coach is right, we wait until our hitters come around. Delgaldo, Hinske, Sparky, etc. will start hitting as the season goes on.

Another disappointing loss. Coach, are you listening to JP with Wilner? If you are, can you keep us updated with what he's saying? Thanks. I'm rather curious to see JP's level of frustration, cause I sure don't buy the "yeah, but we always said 2005" excuse.

I know its early, and I know they have had awful breaks, but im a big fan of this team and even i have trouble drumming up support and not wrting off the season. If im thinking like this, what's going on in the minds of the lucrative bandwagon fans? This bad start may affect the team more than we expect. Hopefuly they can turn it around QUICK.

The Jays are 2-for-29 with RISP for this home stand. It doesn't get any easier tomorrow, with Schilling dealing, but as they say, it's always darkest before the dawn.

Ricciardi was on the morning show today on The Fan and was pretty emphatic that there would be no changes to the coaching staff any time soon. It's not something they've even considered.

I honestly don't see what firing Tosca would accomplish at this point.

How about Frasor? I thought I was watching Paul Quantrill pitch just now!

Anyone able to catch the JP postgame show - can't get the Fan on the net.

I didn't see the game/or listen to it, but at some point the loses do become nothing more than loses. The 'it's early' rock and back chanting will only glaze over the poor results so long. It's too bad a 3-11 is happening, but it is...

Random quotes from J.P.; I'm not fast enough to transcribe the whole thing.

"It's starting to get old."

"We're not a good baseball team right now."

"What are we going to get if we let our manager go? Are we going to suddenly start hitting? That's a naive statement."

"In all honesty, we may have to take a step backwards. We have a lot of second and third year guys; we're going through some growing pains and we'll have to walk before we can run."

If I'm not chasing at least two 95 win teams then maybe I can wait until Memorial Day. In this case, I can't wait until mid-May. If this team gets to May 15th 12-15 games under .500 it's a long wait until April 2006.

No suprise I'm in the minority, but the chances this team goes to the playoffs after a 3-11 start is not great. At 4-14, 5-18, 6-20 - it's out the window. Season is over - thanks for coming out.

From 6-20 to the playoffs is 90-46. Will you tell me if they get to 6-20 that it's still early and you can't make judgements?

I guess the Florida Marlins were naive to change managers last year.

I love JP, but that's just BS. It's starting to get old? It was old at 0-3.

Jim, it's always a long wait in baseball. Ask a Cubs fan. Ask a Red Sox fan. Look, I'm not saying this isn't a disappointing start, but on Opening Day, there wasn't even a 1% chance of the Jays winning anything this year. For that to slip away to zero is hardly a catastrophe. But feel free to lead the Chicken Little Society if it suits you.

Will you tell me if they get to 6-20 that it's still early and you can't make judgements?

You can make all the judgements you like. I'll make one: This team is playing like crap. Half the time it looks like they don't give a shit, and the other half of the time it looks like they care too much and they're pressing.

It's just tough to see what firing Tosca would accomplish, that's all.

No suprise I'm in the minority, but the chances this team goes to the playoffs after a 3-11 start is not great.

You're not at all in the minority. I think it's damn near impossible now. We all agree that the Jays are in a crappy situation. We just differ on what should be done (if anything) to turn it around.

Noone has actually even suggested another change.

I'm not leading the Chicken Little Society. I'm being realistic. 2004 is almost over for the Toronto Blue Jays and it is only April 21st.

I'm not talking about 'winning anything'. I'm talking about being relevant on Memorial Day. I'm talking about having enough people in the seats to at least give management the option of resigning Delgado.

I'm not demanding a World Series title. I'm not even demanding the manager's head. I'm saying that it has to be considered. Something has to be done if this isn't turned around immediately.

Firing a manager isn't perfect, but
A: It's something you can do.
B: Sometimes after a manager is fired teams play better (not suggesting it's the reason why - just that sometimes it happens)
C: It's not like Tosca is Casey Stengel.

There's one thing I haven't seen out of anyone not named Halladay. That's fire. He was absolutely irate yesterday when the balk was called on him, and I don't blame him. Just once, I want to see someone else get pissed at all this losing. Yeah, it's terrific sportsmanship to take a bad called strike three and walk back to the dugout, but jeez, for once, just show us you care-chuck your helmet or something.

Last night O-Dog got called out on a third strike (I thought it was high) and stood there and smiled. I'm not saying he should have run around and yelled and gotten tossed, but show something. I actually have idea whatsoever what I'm trying to say. And yes, I know it's a long season and all, and maybe this is just the way I used to play sports back in the day, but get fired up at something .

Re. Fan on the net - I had a problem too, did a Yahoo search, clicked on the link, said couldn't find the server, so I clicked back, and up came the site, but the listen live link indicated tech difficulties...must be too many bauxites listening in.
Gotta love how candid JP is; about sticking with the kids, he talked about how Bernie, Derek and Trot all could have been had in their second year; like seeomg the support for coaching staff as well - placing responsibility on players, aware and accepting of learning curves.

I guess the Florida Marlins were naive to change managers last year.

I love JP, but that's just BS. It's starting to get old? It was old at 0-3.

C'mon, Jim; you must be kidding. There is no way that the team's poor hitting numbers can be blamed on Tosca. Sometimes a cruel confluence of circumstances (like all of the team's hitters being terrible at the same time) causes a cold streak like the extant one - which just have to ride this thing out.

as they say, it's always darkest before the dawn.

Actually, it's always darkest in the middle of the night. It gets lighter as dawn approaches.

I'm not blaming the poor hitting numbers on Tosca. I'm not blaming him for anything. The team is losing, the season is going to be lost in April. A change needs to be made. Not one person debating with me has come up with any solution past watch the season be flushed down the toilet. I guess we'll wait until Memorial Day and the team is 17-30 and figure out what to do then.

The idea that this is a bunch of 'kids' in untrue. They have 2 players on the roster under the age of 26. This team, from all the research I've seen, has a whole bunch of players in their prime. The only players under 26 are Wells and Phelps. I don't remember saying to trade any player - nevermind Wells or Phelps.

9 games, that's all I'd wait. If the slide continues, fire Tosca immediately. Teams who don't think they have a chance let a manager stay all the way through an awful campaign. Teams that think they should do better find someone new. At what point does this stop being an awful start and become an awful season? Tosca has never shown me he's anything more than an average manager. Replace him now, show Carlos and Vernon and Roy that you are serious about winning right now. Management might be happy with a long term plan, but casual fans and sluggers entering their contract years want results, now. Maybe a new manager will give Delgado a shot in the arm.
This is a dressing room full of underachieving professionals. Don't give me this b/s about the rest of the AL improving themselves, this team should have 8 wins right now. If they can't win now, against the Tigers and the Orioles, who are NOT as good as they looked against us, how are they ever going to win in New York, Oakland, or Anaheim?You have to rock the ship once in a while.
If nothing happens, and the Jays are 20-20 by the middle of May, I will obviously be eating my words. But I really believe a change is necessary. Show the team and the fans that 3-12 is not acceptable, that better things are expected, not in 2005 but right now. The Playoffs might be long gone, but respectability is still in reach.

As Wilner pointed out, the Jays had a 2-12 stretch last April and a 3-12 stretch in July en route to 86 wins. According to some knee-jerk reactionaries around here, they would have gone through three managers last year -- in a great season!

J.P. hasn't given a lot of thought to bringing up any of the prospects, though he'd like to get a few of them some at-bats later in the season. It's partly to do with the service-time clock, but mostly that he still likes the team he has.

"We're excited about those guys. They're probably a year away, some maybe half a year, some two years. We're starting to create some depth."

A caller asked J.P. about Bill James' age 27 theory. Ricciardi, citing the improvements in conditioning, suggests that may be creeping toward 28, and mentioned that some players still peak at 29 or 30.

Regarding the inevitable Delgado question, he gave the standard answer for the thousandth time. Nothing will be decided until after the season, and then, it's up to ownership. "We have to see what percentage of our payroll we can tie up in one player."

J.P. is getting pretty tired of defending himself against the perception, "blown out of proportion by the media," that he's some kind of stathead. "I'm not a pocket-protector guy who sits in my office crunching numbers. I'm a baseball guy."

He doesn't think Hinske or Woodward has hurt the team defensively this season, and says, "The kid at second's got ungodly range; he's going to win a Gold Glove one of these years."

Answering a caller who wondered why he passed on a recent waiver claim, Ricciardi was typically honest -- "We've got better players than Jack Cust."

I find it strange that people demand 'fire' out of players. Being irate and scowling at the plate does not make a player better. It doesn't make you more focused, more professional, or more likely to succeed the next time out. Hudson smiles. It's his way of coping with what is going on. It's probably a more balanced and healthy way to deal with a game that, from time to time, can be frustrating and unfair.

My take on the spin? Two words: sample size.

Last year, between June 28th and July 12th, the Toronto Blue Jays compiled a 3-11 record with a 55-81 run differential (this put them 8 games out of first place). This year, the Blue Jays start off with a 3-11 record with a run differential of 51-76.

You know what happened? The team started hitting and pitching better and they snapped out of the funk. The only reason why we are going nuts is because the season just started and that 3-11 mark is staring us square in the eye. The playoffs might be a longshot, but they were a longshot at the start of the year. Our prior assumptions (a big shout out to Neary on this one) might be a little off, but the future looks bright. Delgado and Co. can't stay in this funk forever.

Oh so every year it's ok to start ten games under .500. This team started the season with higher goals then 86 wins.

I see the answer now. Do nothing. No matter what your record. Just keep plugging along getting buried every night. Make 5,000 pitching changes. Don't be progressive or aggressive. Hope that you repeat last years miracle and win 86 games.

Ignore:

A. The games you lost in April were to the Yankees and not the Tigers
B. 3 of the 4 teams you play 19 times clearly improved themselves

The playoffs might have been a longshot to start 2004. Being in a race at Memorial Day and the 4th of July (not that you guys care about the 4th of July) wasn't a long shot.

Jim, there's one question you haven't answered here: what exactly would a managerial change accomplish? That's the point everyone else has been trying to make.

I don't know what it would accomplish. It might not accomplish anything. It might help to turn things around. Things might turn around on their own. Things might not turn around on their own.

I know this much. If Florida didn't change managers last year they would not have won the WS. Granted the AL East in 2004 isn't the NL East in 2003, but I am of firm belief that something has to be done by someone.

Again, I ask - what the hell is so great about Carlos Tosca that he can't be replaced?

The Anaheim Angels started their run in '01 with a 6-14 start. As of right now, this team is only 6 games back of the Orioles and only 4.5 back of the Yanks.

I think we/the club are nearing the point where "sample size" has to begin to lose some of it's blanket appeal. At some point you have to become accountable, and the GM is obviously aware of this.

Kent's hit all the highlights of the Wednesday night feature show...you've got some quick hands and good ears there Bud.

I agree with Christian. The idea is to have your emotions under control -- this isn't football, where rage can be useful. I don't know how many of you have ever played this game, but trying too hard is the very worst thing you can do at bat, in the field or on the mound. That's why there are slumps -- human beings put pressure on themselves. I applaud the effort I've observed, by the GM, the manager and the players, to stay on an even keel through this difficult time. More "fire" would be as counter-productive as firing someone.

Some fans may choose to give up, others to panic. I'll just enjoy the next 149 games, whatever they may bring. The rest of the season starts tomorrow.

More candid comments:
Supportive, admirin fan who respects JP's plan and process: "Maybe you could help out the Raptors?", referring to the Raptors seeming lack of direction, and empty GM post.
JP: "We're not in a position right now to help anybody."
He's a "quote-a-minute" kinda guy.

When McKeon was brought into Florida, fans and the media alike responded very unfavorably. Sure, it worked out that time, but mainly because there was a major problem with Torberg at the time. A.J had just had his season flushed down the toilet and Spooneybarger was complaining that management wasn't taking his injury seriously.

I'd love to see the proof that firing someone is counter-productive. Does Tosca have the job for life? Is he a Supreme Court Justice?

Again, I ask - what the hell is so great about Carlos Tosca that he can't be replaced?

And I'm asking what difference would it make? You don't even know the answer to that one, so why are you being so insistent about replacing him?

You're advocating doing something just for the sake of doing something, and that something may or may not accomplish anything at all. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm as frustrated as anybody, but I think it'd be a bad idea to do something drastic right now. The Jays aren't as bad as they look, because nobody's this bad. So any actions the team takes would be based on deceptive information. Trying to rearrange your organization in the middle of a losing streak is like going grocery shopping when you haven't eaten for three days--you'll probably regret some of your decisions later.

I was at the game last night, watched tonights game on TV and though it is disturbing I dont believe firing Tosca is the answer. The problem is not only are the Jays not hitting but they arent taking walks or working the counts. Besides Vernon and Carlos and possibly Phelps the Jays dont have a lot of dangerous hitters, it is an offence that relies heavily on getting on base. They just arent doing that but its still too early to panic. I disagree with JP on Woodward, at Tuesday nights game there were at least 2 ground ball singles that a SS should have made plays on. If he cant hit and he is just an average to below average fielder we need other options especially on Turf. The future does look bright, they cant possibly play any worse( I Hope!) so things can only get better from here.

Jim, you're going in circles. Go find some numbers and come back with a real arguement, this is just pointless.

Tosca may, in fact, be fired this year. And no, it would not really bother me. But I think to fire him at this stage would send a negative message to players, fans, and the league as a whole; that the Jays are panicking and flailing around looking for blame.

It's a terrible start, yes, but so what? As Coach says, sit back, enjoy what does happen this year --- maybe we'll have an unassisted triple play, or a no-hitter (for or against, do we really care, if we see it happen?).

Chill out, Jim. They ain't going to the 'Series this year regardless of a 3-11 or 11-3 start. Think happy thoughts: 2005 - or Steinbren-zilla rampaging through the Yankee dugout, firing Torre and hiring Bobby Valentine (please please please let that happen!)

Coach and Cristian, I expected that response and know that that is ideal, especially in baseball (and golf which I love too). I guess it was my temper flaring as a fan the way it used to as a player.

It's also frustrating HOW the Jays are losing too. Watching all these games they simply appear flat at times. Yes, much is due to the lack of hitting, but even the fielding looks laid back. All in all-I agree with Jobu-I know they have had awful breaks, but im a big fan of this team . They simply can't be this bad. So I agree with the stand pat camp. However, if the shakeup came in the form of a Rios callup, my fantasy team might get a boost too.

I don't know what it would accomplish. It might not accomplish anything. It might help to turn things around. Things might turn around on their own. Things might not turn around on their own.


Exactly. Unless you have proof that things are, at the very least, more likely to turn around with someone else at the helm (because players have quit on Tosca or Tosca is a bad teacher), why would you make a change? Making changes without any idea what of what is likely to occur is always a bad decision.

I know this much. If Florida didn't change managers last year they would not have won the WS.

You know this? Can I borrow your time machine some time? Even if this is true what makes you think that a coaching change will have a positive effect on the Jays. Florida wasn't the only team that changed manageers last season. What makes you think the Jays won't be like those other teams that changed managers then did not win the WS?

Did anyone else hear JP on Jack Cust. That was funny, the more he sees him the less he likes him. Totally correct, Phelps, Rios, Gross, we have better guys on the team and in Syracuse than Cust.

Dr Zarco your fantasy team is already very good I dont need one of my rivals getting a boost! If Sparky continues to struggle they will need to get someone up by the middle of May. Who gets the first call Gross or Rios?

It's not really that black and white, Jim. Not every managerial change is productive, though sure, some are.
Your point about *considering* a manager change is fair enough, but to suggest that you need proof that firing a manager is counter productive, begs for you to prove that hiring a new manager will be productive. It's a condition change - you can manipulate this variable, and it may impact on things, but can you separate the variables later to fairly assess what has happened? Did they play better because of the change, or did they get better because they were bound to?
If you concede that players experience peaks and valleys in a season, and that young players by and large tend to experience more or longer ones, then the urgency for change decreases. Growth and change and improvement is more longitudinal. If Tosca helps to teach young players to manage those variances and move forward, something you or I really *know* little about (though the entire staff is lauded for their teaching ability), then how is he not a good fit?
I certainly agree with your disappointment over the start of the season, and it really hasn't been fun to watch.

What are the realistic options for the Jays?

Firing the manager. I think that's ridiculous at this point. Delgado has all of 50 something at bats.

Send people down in exchange for minor leaguers. Well that doesn't solve the problem which is supposedly lack of experience (though IMO it's also a great deal of BAD LUCK).

Trade someone. And of course now is the best time for a 3-11 team to make a trade. They are sure to be treated fairly in any trade offers they receive two weeks into the season. Selling low is not a good strategy.

Wait at least another 50 something at bats to see if MAYBE some of the linedrives they hit with runners in scoring position actually start falling in.

But of course the reason that Hudson's linedrive with two in scoring position went straight at the centerfielder is because he's not experienced enough or there is bad chemistry on the team or the manager doesn't have the respect of any of the players. There is no such thing as CHANCE or a BAD STRETCH in baseball. If the Jays had started the season 11-3 it would have meant they would be winning the division for sure and Tosca would have been the best manager in the big leagues.

I will say one thing about the hitters...they are hitting an awful lot of popups and harmless flyballs at the moment. They have been chasing a lot of high pitches and a few of the batters aren't swinging level or down on the ball. The Jays have had shockingly few sharply hit grounders and it seems many of the opposing team's hits in the SkyDome are of that variety...sharp grounders that find the holes.

As far as JP's comments on Hinske and Woodward's defence (or Chris Gomez's for that matter), I disagree completely. Without Bordick fielding at shortstop there is a huge difference in the quality of defence on the left side. When Hinske can't knock down a sharply hit groundball right at him and throw out MANNY RAMIREZ without bouncing the ball and giving up an infield hit there is an issue with the infield defence. When DAVID ORTIZ hits a sharp grounder on turf a little to the left of Orlando Hudson who fields it cleanly and feeds second in plenty of time and the double play STILL isn't turned that is unacceptable defence. The Jays have enough problems without forcing their pitchers to face the additional pressure of extra Red Sox hitters.

This doesn't have much to do with the fact that the Jays have scored 15 runs in 8 games at home. But I don't think Russ Adams can be ready soon enough. 1 for 3 with a walk again tonight.

I think Myers isn't playing much because Cash is off to a hot start (relatively).

As for the financial concerns. I'm not sure what the 2 dollar promotion was on Tuesday (was it for all seats?), but the game highlighted that Toronto is a hockey town, and while the Leafs are still in the playoffs, you just won't get that much attendance at Skydome. I would make a leap of faith and conclude that the Blue Jays, barring a 20 game winning streak, really isn't going to draw significant amounts of fans to the ballpark at this time (Leafs).

You know... I'm going to stick to my football analogy. No NFL team is going to fire their coach after an 0-1 start, the equivalent of losing 10 games in a row in the MLB. Yet here some of us want to fire Tosca already.

Btw... Has anyone seen Russ Adams play? During the post 2003 draft, people were saying that Adams' range was limited, therefore the Jays drafted Aaron Hill.

But now prospect reports seem to point at Hill moving to 2B as the likelier scenario. Has Adams gotten better with his range over the past year?

I think the best we can do this point, as panicy powerless fans, is appreciate the team we got and try to go to as many games as possible. Keep somekind of spirit alive in that concrete cave, drag our friends with us, strangers, whoever. Just try and get the revenue up so payroll isnt slashed next year and carlos goes bye bye. Above all when we're there, stop sitting on our hands and try to make some noise. It sounds dumb but maybe all the players need is a little ear splitting cheering instead of the in stadium sounds playing the Adams Family theme into reverberating silence. When the team sucks as bad as this, we should be out there trying extra hard to get things going just like we expect from the players. Someone said a while back that a major leauge team is a privilege and not a right, and thats damn right, thank goodness for my Starpass and easily convincible friends. So even if i look like an idiot standing up and screaming in a 500 row all to myself, i'll still show up and do my best and I hope you guys will to cuse you define hardcore fans.

I've never seen anything but great remarks on Adams range. It's his arm that's a little below average for the position. Hill is the one with the laser arm but questionable range.

Ok, so let me get this straight. We're 6 games behind the division leader and we're out of it already. If we were 6 games out of it in July wouldn't we be at least considering making a trade to pick up somebody who could help us make a run? And this 6 game deficit that normally would be considered surmountable in July is somehow beyond reach? Bad stretches happen to good teams all the time. It happened to us last year, the A's in 2002, and probably hundreds of other examples. We know the team is better than this and will improve eventually. I don't think anyone doubts that. Anyone who thinks the season is over already simply hasn't watched enough baseball.

"Blue Jays face a knuckler in Tim Wakefield. Advantage Toronto, at least if last night's silliness with Manny Ramirez carries over to this game: Wakefield's pitches would have difficulty breaking a pane of glass."

Never, ever underestimate the power of the flutter ball. Movement matters most.

I agree Jobu. All the jays need to do is sweep a couple of series and they will be right back in it. I dont think its the crowd that bothers them, they are used to the deplorable attendance. They need leaders. We need Captain Carlos to give a speech or something; we have a bunch of rookies with no one to lead the way. Thats what Bordick brought to the team, now that he's gone, someone else has to take his place.

Anyway, I will be right by yourside in the 500 level...now until November in the WORLD SERIES

I am astounded that, for a second time in a week, someone is criticizing a play that Hinske "did not make" on a Manny Ramirez rocket. We like players to make the routine plays; anything else is a bonus, and only a handful of people around the league MAY have been able to field cleanly that ball Ramirez hit, which was NOT a routine play. Maybe I am thinking of a different play, but I do not recall the ball hit by Ramirez to be hit "right at Hinske."

Again, there are plenty of things to moan about a 3-11 start, if you want to look, but quit picking on Hinske for not making plays that are even harder to make than they look on TV.

ha ha ha... atta boy snake. Whats wrong with some very illogical, unlikely, blind faith? The Leafs fans have had that for decades :)It might help attendance a bit, and even for Toronto the dome is FAR to quiet for my liking, we're lucky to muster some synchronized clapping, the Bo Sox fans were roaring. If we can just get the 50 or so people who read this to stand up and cheer next game, it just might be contagious. Better than "the wave" at least...

First, I still believe that the Jays will win 86 games this year but ...

... we have a bunch of rookies with no one to lead the way ...

... this is simply not true. Other than Cash, there's not a single rookie on the roster who is expected to play a meaningful role. Their everyday lineup is not what you would call "young." Wells is 25, but he's in his fourth year in the majors. Johnson is only in his second year, but he's 27. Phelps is his third year now, and he's 26. Hudson is in his third year. Woodward is in his fourth. Hinkse is in his third year; he's also 26. Catalanatto has been around for a while. Delgado is a vet, obviously.

Meanwhile, the rotation is a veteran one, except for Towers, and he's a AAAA pitcher, despite his great control. Halladay has been in the bigs three years now, so it's hard to say he's "young." The bullpen is full of veterans.

Granted, this isn't the Arizona Diamondbacks, but nor is it the collection of green-eyed rookies some are making the roster out to be.

I third that movement about making some noise... Some people in the seats get pissed if you say something loud and/or ubnoxious to the opposing team??? What're such people doing at a baseball game? How can you not expect to hear loud fans at a baseball game? It's like going to a forest and not expecting to see trees.... I really do question the nature of the baseball (sub)culture here in toronto sometimes...

btw I won one of those fed ex special delivery things tonight, and they just gave me this shitty hat and these 2 plastic coffee mugs both with the fedex logo as if I am to parade around like their corporate shill... blegh... also in the blah column was the overabundance of red sox fans who made the drive from lord knows where.... made me wonder where I was... oh yeah and if I hear 'go leafs go' one more time in the stands I'm gonna pop someone :)....

but in conclusion, I had a pretty good time at the game tonight... Our section actually did have a large group of loud excited people... or at least people who are amused by the loud excited people... I'll still show for as many tix as I can get my hands on...

Amen to that Matt. Thats what I'm talking about. We're techincaly the "hardcore" fans of this team posting here all the time, lets lead the way and get something started! It'll be like some cheesy grass roots campaign. Im serious in saying we need to band together, organize something or other, just find a way of making some NOISE in that cavern. Who needs the "polite" Toronto label, I want to join some fans in the outfield and shower Johnny Damon with heckles until some Bostonian looks over at me with the "well i never!" face. We should give kudos to our fellow bauxites who have the cleverest banners at the game, or report some great heckles. Sure they Jays are professionals, but who wants to go up and bat with the away fans boo's drowning out the homefans? Most people dont want to be the first to make noise, its up to guys like us to make asses of ourselves and cheer so the regular fans feel safe to join in! Like Smokey the bear says "it all starts with you".... or something like that...

It's ugly all right but all we can do is be patient. There is no panacea at this stage. I agree that firing Tosca sends the wrong message. How can you fault Tosca for the team's performance so far? Is it Tosca's fault that:

- Hinske, Delgado, Wells, Woodward, Hudson can't hit

- The team won't/can't extend at-bats and get on base

- The team isn't hitting in clutch situations

- The starting pitching is uneven, at best

- Hinske, Woodward (to name a couple) can't field?

I think the reality is that the team has some major weaknesses that Jays fans overlooked in spring training. Specifically, the team needs better starting pitching, defence, and a deeper, more productive lineup. JP doesn't have the budget to acquire proven veterans, so we'll have to wait for the farm system to produce the talented core required to compete. Wells, Halladay (Cash, Phelps?) are a great start, but it looks as though we still have a long way to go. Especially if Hinske, Hudson, Woodward, Johnson, etc simply aren't good enough at their respective positions to make up a championship team.

You can't just sit back and wait for 2005.

2005 is dependent on 2004. If you plan on having a bigger budget. If you plan on having Delgado. If you plan on building confidence in your fan base. 2004 is important.

They need to save 2004. They need to save it immediately.

Since noone has come up with any other ideas, I don't see how you can't at least *CONSIDER* changing managers.

Of course there is no numbers to prove that it would turn things around. It *MIGHT* darn well be worth the chance. Something on this baseball team has to change.

You can either try to make some sort of change to spark things or sit back and hope things fix themselves. I am of the opinion at this point that things aren't going to fix themselves.

Gitz thinks they are going to win 86. I doubt there is one person on this board who wouldn't sign up for 86 wins right this second. That's 83-65 the rest of the way, which includes 33 games with the Red Sox. Go 17-16 in those 33 and you need to be 66-49 (.573) starting tommorrow against the rest of the league just to get to 86 wins - which will probably leave you 10 back in the Wild Card and you won't even get a whiff of relevance the rest of the season.

My take on this? Spin.

JKCL, I can respect your opinion in this case. My point, which I admit was not very clear, was that sample sizes can be decieving. I remember last year when New York was getting all hot about the Yankees' 3-10 skid.

I think it is best to keep a level head about these things. The bats will come around, because frankly, they can't get much worse.

My friend just bet me a cool 50 bux that at the end of the season that the Angels would be ahead of the A's... and I took him up on it... Good bet? I did get a 1-game advantage... 2 games after tonight it looks like...

I'm NOT saying this as a prediction (I am a bit worried about this team not in terms of talant but in terms of "intangibles") but it's still relevant that I point it out:

The 2002 Angels started the season 6-14.

Matt, if somebody offered me the A's (and they took the Angels), not only would I take it, I'd spot 'em 5 games.

My comment above refers to 33 games with the Red Sox. I meant Red Sox and Yankees.

If I point out the fact the Marlins changed managers and won I'm naive. If someone points out the Angels were 6-14 - that somehow instills hope?

What ever happened to posting those K's at the game????

When Docs on the bench, he needs to look south of the jumbo-tron and see bright yellow tiles there, inspiring him to make that chain as long as possible.

I will bring them myself if I have to.

Last game I was at the K's had been integrated into a Pizza Pizza promotion where they cover each digit of the company's phone number with a K after a strike out. Should the Jays strike out seven (covering all the digits) each ticket from that game can be redeemed for a slice of pizza (not including the Dome's Pizza Pizza outlets).

Gitz, that rocket off the bat of Ramirez wasn't that much harder than what your typical third baseman can expect to see on turf. He was reaching for the ball, out on his front foot, and hit a one hop shot which was maybe a full step to Hinske's right at worst. He knocked it down which was a good play. It was the terrible throw he made at THAT point which I took exception with. If he makes a normal strong throw that a major league third baseman should be able to make without thinking about it then Manny is out no problem. At worst it's a bang bang play. As it was he was safe by half a step because of a sinking off balance throw which was a good three feet short of Delgado's glove.

"Something on this baseball team has to change."

Yes, they have to start hitting better. What evidence do you have that chaning the manager is going to accomplish this?

You've given no reason to favour changing the manager to any number of other changes. They could change the team name; go to a 4 man rotation; change the hitting coach; play in loafers, etc. Why will firing Tosca be better than any of these changes. If JP were to fire Tosca _for no good reason_ (and until you give a good reason, that is the case) he would be legitimately be criticized for flailing around aimlessly.

Yeah, that's great. They can change the name of the team or play in loafers.

'For no good reason'. Have you seen the team play one inning of baseball?

Changing managers mid-season is always seen by those in the game as well as the media as an act of desperation. If the players were not responding to Tosca's leadership, that's one thing. But it seems clear that the Jays' woes are due to their lineup-wide hitting slump. To think that a player like Delgado needs a manager to sufficiently motivate him to hit .300 seems rather silly. These guys have worked hard and are still working hard. It would betray the trust that J.P. has with the players by abandoning the long-term plan and firing the manager, when everybody knows it's not Tosca's fault. This isn't like when Jimy Williams clearly lost the handle on the team back in '89. This isn't even like when Martinez got the boot for Tosca, because Buck wasn't J.P.'s man, and so replacing him was always in the cards.

Knee-jerk reactions might be fine if you're running a fantasy baseball team, but these are real people with strengths, weaknesses, highs, lows. The Jays can't get good wood on the ball. That's it. These guys are professionals, for crying out loud. They don't need to be 'sent a message' by firing the manager. They know how many games they've lost, they know they're playing badly. Is Delgado going to hit .150 for the season? Is Wells only going to hit one home run all year?

Patience ain't just the title of a Guns N Roses song...

Hey, why not fire Mike Barnett? The whole lineup's not hitting, the hitting coach must be a bum!

Seriously, it IS early for a panic move like firing the manager. That being said, though, I understand where Jim is coming from. The utter awfulness of the team right now is very disheartening, and frustrating. Last year's bad start against teams like New York or Minnesota was defensible; this year's bad start against Detroit, Baltimore, even a Boston team that, while excellent, had four starters out of the lineup last night, is inexcusable. I've been to three games so far this year, including last night, and seeing such a spiritless performance by the home side does lead to pessimism, which leads to reactions like Jim's. There's nothing wrong with that; that's human nature.

I tend to be more of a frequent lurker here than a poster, but I think the strong optimism expressed around here filtered into my brain a great deal, and I felt a lot of (apparently unrealistic) optimism going into this season. With the hole they've dug, and a tougher schedule in the second half, this team will have difficulty reaching .500. The hitters have dug such a deep hole for themselves that it will take some major hot streaks later in the year to bring them back up to their 2003 level of performance.

There are positives to be found if you look hard enough, primarily that the bullpen this year is competent and not the train wreck it was last year. I personally despise the platoon-obsessed bullpen usage strategy that Tosca, like so many other major league managers starting with LaRussa, has embraced. But there is ability in that pen and regardless of problems with usage, it will be very improved.

I think, though, that my (and many other peoples) expectations of similar offensive performance to last year was unrealistic. Players and teams fluctuate somewhat from year to year, and last year's run production WAS inflated by a tremendous offensive hot streak in May and June. The one-through-nine tremendous hitting during that stretch was just as exceptional and unique as this year's one-through-nine atrocious hitting. The Jays won't be this bad offsensively all year, as they are just so far beyond-the-norm bad, but they also won't, at the end of the marathon, have the run production of last year because May/June 2003 was so far beyond-the-norm good that it made them look better as an offensive unit than they are.

There'll be good Jays baseball at some point this year; it's just very frustrating having to wait for it. And Jim is right: casual fans are becoming utterly disinterested. More than one person has told me 'The Jays? Who cares, they suck.' already this year. And while I brought (dragged?) my fiancee and two friends to the game last night, the entropic nature of last night's game will make it a harder sell to bring them many more times.

I'm rambling on now, so I'll stop now. Jim, I'm not on board right now, but I know how you feel, dude.

Rhetorical question:

Does Batter's Box have its first troll?

I hardly see how I can be called a troll. I disagree with some people and think that a managerial change might be in order, that makes me a troll?

I haven't attacked a single person on the board. I've listened to everything they have to say.

Sorry if I'm not willing to throw away a season in April and chalk it up to sample size as quickly as some others are.

Again, I like Tosca, but it's not like he's irreplaceable talent.

It is not fair to say that Jim is a troll.

It is fair to say that you think he is wrong (as I do).

The funny thing about Tosca is that most people (from what I have seen) are not convinced he is good at handling pitchers. Yet now some want to call for his head because the team isn't hitting.

The manager can't make the team hit. Are there lineup changes or tactical in-game moves you think he should be doing that he isn't?

I know John Cerutti thinks he should call for the sac bunt a lot more often. This is the primary reason I don't like John Cerutti's colour.

Jim, if the team is still this bad in another month, I think everyone will be right there with you wanting something to be done. But it's 14 games. 14 terrible games but not even three weeks worth. I know you don't like the sample size argument but it's not an argument...it's fact. Seattle started the year just as badly and they snapped out of it. Do you think Seattle with their $90 million veteran payroll had reason to do something drastic when they started the year 2-8? Is the situation SO MUCH incredibly worse after another four games that you go from willing to wait to wanting to hang the management? That's the definition of irrationality in my books.

I can see replacing Woodward or Johnson or even Hudson if they don't start picking it up. I can see calling up Quiroz or playing Myers more if it weren't for the fact that Cash is doing alright so far. I could see trading for a veteran DH if it weren't for the fact that Josh Phelps isn't doing too badly. Outside of that they haven't gotten the performance they are accustomed to getting from Wells, Hinske, and Delgado. If you always judge a team at it's worst you'll be making three or four managerial changes in a season. Maybe the solution is to have a bullpen of six managers and switch them out every time there's a sign of trouble.

If I point out the fact the Marlins changed managers and won I'm naive. If someone points out the Angels were 6-14 - that somehow instills hope?

Torborg was fired in the middle of May. Four of his five starting pitchers had gotten injured, incuding the ace of the staff for the season, which many were blaming him for. His team was scoring almost 5 runs a game, while the pitching was giving up about the same. The writing was on the wall.

Anaheim was scoring a little over 3 runs a game in 2002, and were 10.5 games back of the Mariners, with a manager that had won 75 games the year before. They had lost a series with Cleveland and split a series with Texas.

I just see more relevance in the Anaheim scenario here.

The Florida comparison doesn't quite work: Torborg had been managing the team for a year already with mediocre results. Admittedly, firing him so early in the season was still silly (what was wrong with him in May that wasn't wrong in December or January?), but at least there was a track record of mediocrity.

Tosca, in comparison, had a very good season in 2003. Everyone was talking about how great the clubhouse was, and how he got all the players to play hard. He was, by most accounts, a motivator and a teacher and the team won 86 games. But now he's a bad manager? Now he is the reason why the team stinks? He's the reason why four regulars, including last year's MVP runner-up, are hitting under .200?

Yeah, Tosca's bullpen management is frustrating. But I can only think of one game where it cost the Jays a win. If the offence was even average, this would be a .500 team.

Again, I've said it at least 3 times.

The fact that they are not hitting is NOT Tosca's fault.

However, although I can offer no proof, there is anecdotal evidence that change can sometimes help. As I don't wish to change the best players on the team, nor do I think replacing the worst players will have any impact - that leaves me with the manager. I think they should being to consider letting him go.

Let me summarize again by saying - It is not his fault. He can't be held directly responsible because they don't hit. However I do believe that there is a possiblity a change might jump start the team and I think it's worth investigating.

although I can offer no proof, there is anecdotal evidence that change can sometimes help. As I don't wish to change the best players on the team, nor do I think replacing the worst players will have any impact - that leaves me with the manager. I think they should being to consider letting him go.

And I don't believe in firing someone pour encourager les autres. That's not right, not fair, and very short-sighted.

Firing the Manager is not the answer because the problems are deeper than the first 14 games. Hinske had a poor OBP last year, Johnson after a hot start last year really didnt have an OBP indicative of a leadoff hitter, Woodard hasnt hit in 2 years. As much as everyone is using the sample size arguement for 14 games you can also take last year and use it against many of the Jays hitters. Who cares about Batting Average if you are at least getting on base but right now that isnt even happening. Its not Tosca's fault he has a leadoff hitter who would be a 4th outfielder on most teams, a SS who is really a utility player and a rookie catcher. Patience is key with these guys right now but Hinke, Phelps and Vernon have too much experience that anyone should be using the fact that they are young as an excuse. That being said here is my bold prediction: The Jays light up Schilling to the tune of 11 hits and 6 runs in 6 innings!

There's a possibility that if I were fired, others in my department might start working harder. That's a pretty solid basis for a wrongful dismissal lawsuit, though.

There's anecdotal "evidence" that shaving your beard will break a losing streak. Shall we fire Tosca and order everyone on the team to be clean-shaven at all times?

I see, so now this is just a bad team, and this sort of start should have been expected.

No, it's Rob Faulds fault. He's the reason the Jays are losing.

there is anecdotal evidence that change can sometimes help

There is also anecdotal evidence that change doesn't help. Unless your evidence shows that change is more likely to help than staying the course, your argument isn't valid. At least not valid enough to cost a man his job.

http://bluejayscheerclub.com
While I appreciate the sentiment, I don't agree that a Tosca firing would do any good.

However, I was on the Fire Pat Quinn bandwagon a few months ago, and look at how things turned out.

Let's face it: I'm a fan. What do I know?

So unless something can be proved to be beneficial, it can't be done. How does any sports franchise ever make any moves at all then? A coach or manager would never be fired, because it would 'cost them their job'.

Please, your team loses, you go. If the team continues to lose the next coach/manager and the GM go.

unless something can be proved to be beneficial, it can't be done

No, it *shouldn't* be done. It certainly can be done. If you're stumbling around like a drunken idiot, that's how you do things - make knee-jerk responses to adversity.

You have to do a cost/benefit calculation. Completely aside from the fact that it's not right to make an example of somebody, you have to look at what the new man will bring over what CT can do. And you need to have reasons; it's no good stumbling around wildly looking for a new man just because you want one. This isn't a knee-jerk action, but one that has far-reaching impacts all throughout the organization.

The only reason Tosca should be fired is if it will improve the ballclub. In other words, the new manager should be better in the role than Tosca. (Leaving aside the cost of firing Tosca, which will be substantial).

So who? Who should be promoted or hired to replace him, who also would want the job? Why will they do a better job?

I'd go further. Now is the worst possible time to fire Tosca, in my opinion. It can only be the result of very short-term thinking, and would set a bad tone. The team's performance to date this season has had very little to do with Tosca's decisions and performance.

If the team were, say, 28-53 at the half-way point of the season, I'd feel quite differently about it. You might very well infer from the poor record given the talent, that CT was just unable to motivate his players to perform at their best. At this point, I'd certainly take the club's performance under CT in 2002 and 2003 as better evidence of his motivational skills than the 14 games to date this year.

So unless something can be proved to be beneficial, it can't be done. How does any sports franchise ever make any moves at all then? A coach or manager would never be fired, because it would 'cost them their job'.

Hardly. Usually a coach or GM who is doing a poor job gets the axe, and rightfully so (Gord Ash immediately comes to mind). With most dismissals there are normally several issues that can be pointed to in the person's performance that would warrant a change being made.

But you've admitted several times in this thread that you don't think Tosca is the one responsible for the team's problems. You're advocating making Tosca a scapegoat for a problem that he has little (if any) control over. That's just plain silly. As Craig said, firing someone for no reason does happen periodically, but it's not as common as you seem to believe.

Please, your team loses, you go. If the team continues to lose the next coach/manager and the GM go.

Most teams are not owned by George Steinbrenner, and he doesn't even do what you're suggesting anymore.

I hope this team isn't 20-40 or 25-45, but if they are I'm going to be very interested in your reactions at that time.

I agree with 99% of what you guys are saying. My breakpoint has just come faster then yours has.

At what game can we stop saying small sample size?

I have the answer - it's a conspiracy!

Delgado is purposely not hitting so he can say to management in post-season contract negotiations "Look how awful your team was without me" Wells, as the next Jays superstar is purposely not hitting to help out Carlos and set a precedent for his own future contract negotiations.

Makes as much sense as anything, doesn't it? :)

I hope this team isn't 20-40 or 25-45, but if they are I'm going to be very interested in your reactions at that time.

If the team goes 20-40, I wouldn't be surprised if people were calling for JP's head.

This might be an extreme position, but I wouldn't consider the team's record at all when deciding when to fire the manager. If I thought the guy wasn't doing the job, I'd fire him if the team was 10-30 or 30-10. Wouldn't matter to me. If a team won 100 games, but I thought they could win 115 with a more comptent guy at the helm, I'd axe the manager in a heartbeat.

The manager should be canned if he consistently makes bonehead tactical moves, if there's a rotten atmosphere in the clubhouse, if the team was overly pressing because of an authoritarian manager (see Bowa, Larry) or if the team ceased to take the game seriously because of a lax manager. If one or more of those things happen, the manager has to go, regardless of the record. Of course, teams facing these problems probably have lousy records, but that's not always the case. You also get the opposite case where the manager isn't doing anything wrong, but the team stinks on the field either the team is going through a spot of bad luck, or the GM has given the manager a bunch of duds. In situations like those, it seems pointless to fire the manager.

I'd also like to point out that a .500 team is going to go 3-10 (or worse) over a given 13 game period about 2.87% of the time, while a .550 team is going to go 3-10 (or wose) over a given 13 game period about 1.14% of the time. If this had happened during the middle of the season few would have noticed, but since it happened during the first 13 games, it sticks out like a sore thumb.

3-11 BTW. I'm sure those numbers reflect a .500 opponent. How about the Tigers?

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. That there is no way a team like the Tigers can't beat a better team on a given day? They won three against the A's last year, when they were a much worse team.

An example:
NY Yankees, May 16th to May 25th, 2003

Lost two out of three to Anaheim at home.
Swept by Texas at home in a three game series.
Won two out of three in Boston.
Swept by Toronto in a four game series.

Record: 3-10

Make that May 13th through May 25th.

If you are going to tell me that a .500 team goes 3-10 3% of the time, I'm sure that's against a .500 quality opponent. That's a pretty big assumption when Toronto has lost as many times as they have to Detroit. So the 3% chance is overstated.

Why would you be sure that it would be against a .500 quality opponent? In my example above, the Yankees got swept by a Texas team that one only 71 games that year. Just last year the Blue Jays lost five games to Tampa in an eight game span. I guarantee there are many other examples, but I don't have the time to look right now.

Mike said:
I'd also like to point out that a .500 team is going to go 3-10 (or worse) over a given 13 game period about 2.87% of the time, while a .550 team is going to go 3-10 (or wose) over a given 13 game period about 1.14% of the time.

He's got to use some kind of opponent to figure out those percentages. Therefore I'm guessing he used a .500 opponent. My point is that the teams the Jays have lost to this year aren't of .500 quality. Therefore the 2.87% is overstated.

My point is that the teams the Jays have lost to this year aren't of .500 quality.

The Tigers may not be a .500 club (though they are not nearly the horrible club that they were last year), but the Orioles have a decent shot at picking up ten wins this year. At any rate, you suppose that these teams are worse than their record based on a small sample size, but can't see that the opposite as being true for the Jays.

I'm not saying that at all. All I've said is that IF they don't turn things around quickly (tonight was a start) - they should consider a managerial change.

He's got to use some kind of opponent to figure out those percentages. Therefore I'm guessing he used a .500 opponent.

Yep.

My point is that the teams the Jays have lost to this year aren't of .500 quality.

Obviously it's a simplifying assumption. But I'd say that on average the teams are of .500 quality. Of those 13 games, 6 were against a Detroit team I picked during Spring Training to finish 3rd in the AL Central, an Orioles team that has spent a lot of money to improve, and the Red Sox, who might be the best team in baseball when healthy. If you suppose there of, say, .490 quality, it really doesn't make a heck of a lot of difference.

Or, I'll put it this way: What do you think the combined winning percentage of the Red Sox, Tigers, and Orioles will be at the end of the season?

What are the odds that a .400 team will do it? Doesn't that tell us which is more likely?

Not really. By definition, the odds are best that a .230 (3/13) team will go 3-10. Would you want to put money on the Jays ending the season with less than 40 wins?