51 pitches for Batista through 3 innings.

Batista has settled down. But Schilling looks sharp, so it's still 2-0 Sox after three. Enjoy the game, kids.

Phelps doubles off fellow Anchoragian!

What do you call someone from Anchorage, anyway?

After 4 innings, Batista and Schilling are tied at 60 pitches each, 2 runs allowed each. Batista has faced one fewer batter.

Base hit Phelps on 0-2 pitch.

Predictions for the Tigers series??

Just passing through: yay, Eric!

Schilling looked like he was overmatching Batista totally in the early going, but he's settling down. And the Jays' bats are starting to contribute up and down the lineup.

And Phelps is driven in off of the Hinske 2 run shot. That's the secondary offense that's going to win ballgames.

And now an error by Reese!

Whoa. That ain't why the Sox signed you, Pokey. A boot and an overthrow gives the Jays a freebie in scoring position.

Gotta love the long ball. Heart of the line-up coming up, we'll see what kind of command Batista has.I'd have a short leash.

Through 6 innings: Batista, 2 runs, 86 pitches; Schilling, 4 runs, 89 pitches.

I'll lengthen that leash. Batista's early inning problems seem to be caused by having too many damn pitches. It takes him awhile to find what's working and get on the same page as his catcher, but when he does he's been pretty good.

The overhead camera on the Boston telecast revealed that Sparky was rung up on a pitch a good five inches outside. Schilling's had that call all day, though.

All right, Vernon! That's a Fighting Jays catch.

Through 7 innings: Batista 101 pitches; Schilling 105 pitches.

With the 3 hard hit balls off Batista in the 7th, and the pitch count, I'd say go the pen now.

de los Santos again? I guess Kershner's in the doghouse.

Good call Stephen....Tosca is certainly leaving himself open to second guessing by bringing in the lefty.

Not only that, isn't Adams the guy with no discenible splits that we all thought would keep Tosca from doing this muliple reliver per inning thing?

If memory serves, Bellhorn and Mueller, both switch-hitters, have been decidely stronger in their careers vs RHP. As such, why wouldn't Tosca have not brought in one of his two LHP to start the inning, to face these two and then to face Ortiz?

Once again going from memory, I believe that Adams has historically done as well against LHB as against RHB, so I can see his appeal vs LHB. Are we in fact seeing the team's bullpen pecking order? Adams vs LHB ranks ahead of Kersnher/DLS vs. RHB like Bellhorn and Mueller?

It didn't work. In fairness DLS was good yesterday against Ortiz,I guess Tosca is trying to establish a role for him.Still Adams has good L/R splits so why not let him stay in there?

Times like these, I hate bullpens and just want to see Batista (who was pitching great) just get through the 8th on his own.

Argh! Bullpen!!! *smash* *crash* *throws chair*

Now that was annoying, Speir's 1-1 pitch was closer than many of the pitches Schilling's been getting. Isn't Fenway a Questec park? I'd expect there to be some umpire reviews after this series.

Cheetah's no better than Brinkman!

Just took 5 strikes to get Varitek!

It's a good thing Varitek struck out. Speier struck him out three times in that at-bat. So frustrating after Schilling got such latitude!

Questionable calls by the ump in the Varitek at-bat.

Sit down, Kapler!

Amazing that was only 1 run.

Geez, maybe Spier is best in such clutch roles like he seemed to do well at in Coors!

Nice pitching by Speir. The ump screwed him against both Millar and Varitek, but he kept his cool and got out of it. I like him already.

Speier!!!

Speier is MONEY.

The bare-armed reliever brigade came in, the home side got some seeing eye hits, Fenway Park went nuts for several minutes, but the Jays still go to the 9th up 4-3.

Nice work by Speier. Still frustrating to see a bullpen that JP worked so hard to fix require 2 bases-loaded strikeouts just to hold a 2-run lead.

Assume that 4-3 is the final score today. Then the Jays will have given up, in the last five games, 7, 6, 5, 4 and 3 runs to the opposition. Makes me optimistic for the next few games.

Great. Now Embree gets the corners again.

Tschida the cheatah.

Assume that 4-3 is the final score today.

I hope you knocked on wood while you wrote that, Matthew. Dangerous words with the 9th still to play.

Andrew: Didn't anybody ever tell you it's bad luck to be superstitious?

No pinch-hitter for Gomez?

Never mind.

Cash takes the walk after being down in the count 2-2. Gomez a base hit and the line-up gets turned over. Forces Foulke into the game. Man if Cash can take a few pitches from time to time ...

So will Tosca let Speier finish, or is he intent on finding out if someone else may be tired/having a bad day?

No you won't find me dis'ing Kapler's fielding.

So will Tosca let Speier finish, or is he intent on finding out if someone else may be tired/having a bad day?

Who's our 'closer' again?

I just don't understand Tosca's thinking. It's not like he has Gagne down there. He's got IMO three pretty comparible guys in the pen. Why replace one with another when the first has already proven he's got decent stuff?

PS - I was writing this before the tying single!

Pitching change #5 coming up. I wonder if Tosca is gonna ask JP to go to a 16 man pen?

Is Tosca putting me on here? We're looking at, at best, extra innings, with Foulke on the mound for Boston, and he's changing pitchers again? After Kershner, there's only Lopez left before you're into Douglass/Towers territory.

*throws other chair*

Ligtenberg is a ROOGY. That's why the O's let him go. Why doesn't anyone in the Blue Jay organization see this? He should be De Los Santos' other half, not the closer.

Free Aquilino!

I mean, this is a bullpen that doesn't have a Foulke or a Gagne or a Rivera. The only advantage it has is its depth - the Jays could theoretically keep throwing perfectly decent guys out there for two innings each until the sixteenth inning. Tosca's given away that advantage.

Talk about over-managing. Let Batista who I believe hadn't given up a hit since the first inning start the 8th, and if he gets into trouble have your best reliever Speir ready to face the heart of the order.Keep your Roogys/Loogys ready for the ninth against the bottom of the order... simple!

Due to the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, these comments may seem empty, but as a Strat-O-Matic manager (recognizing that yes, real people are not Strat-O-Matic cards), I think I'd have managed the 8th and 9th differently.

I'd have sent up a LHP to face switch-hitters Bellhorn and Mueller, making them bat from their weaker side. I'd have left the LHP to face Ortiz.

I'd have then brought in a "hard" RHP like Lopez or Ligtenberg to face Ramirez and Millar.

I'd have kept "flat" pitchers Adams and Speier back for the portion of the Red Sox lineup where the L/R do some alternating.

Were it an option at the time, I'd have considered coming in with my second LHP for the top third of the lineup in the 9th.

As I said, I realize that real people are not S-O-M cards, but players (the Jays' pitchers, the opposition hitters) do have tendencies and I'm not sure that Tosca knows what these are.

I concede that there is an argument for giving pitchers defined roles. That being the case, I'd prefer to see Speier as the closer and Ligtenberg, vulnerable to lefties, maybe not given the task to get a bunch of lefties out with a one-run lead in the 9th.

Speier and Lopez, IMO, should be treated as the ace relievers. Next to them, I see Ligtenberg and DLS as a frankenreliever that can pitch in tight situations and Adams-Kershner being the two middle relief guys (with DLS and Kershner flip-flopping depending on the hot hand). Douglass is the emergency man. This is never going to happen, but is the optimum set-up to me.

Good job by Phelps.

After Delgado goes down looking, with 2 outs and a runner on in the 10th, it's easy to get anxious and swing at bad pitchers. Professional at bat, and we get a RISP.

... and superb at-bat from Hinske.

No pinch-hitter for Cash?

No pinch-hitter for Cash?

I know, but you really want Dave Berg catching?

No pinch-hitter for Cash?

He already replaced Myers.

Nobody left to catch, Matthew. Myers got the start, and was defensively replaced.

Can't, Tosca used him as a pinch catcher in the eigth. No catchers left!

Yikes. I settle for bronze on relaying the info.

Satisfied Matthew ;)

Whoops, sorry Matthew. I guess you knew that Myers was already long gone and were pushing for one of the plan C's at catcher.

You're a gold-medal winner in my book, Mike.

Actually I forgot. Thanks.

Is there any other managers out there that would (or could) use seven pitchers in a game in which they've allowed just 2 runs and 12 baserunners?

Pitcher; hand; IP

Batista; R; 7
Adams; R; 0.1
DLS; L; 0.0
Speier; R; 0.2
Ligtenberg; R; 0.2
Kershner; L; 0.1
Lopez; R; TBD

No way, none, that the above is optimal usage.

Is there any other managers out there that would (or could) use seven pitchers in a game in which they've allowed just 2 runs and 12 baserunners?

And not even use them optimally?

I'd love to hear JP's conversation with Keith Law at Fenway today.

Does someone want to take a shot at what the dialogue would look like?

I know "bunt" is a four-letter word for teams like the Red Sox -- and in theory I agree 98 percent of the time -- but, really, why not at least try it ONCE with Varitek? He pops it foul or misses, then you turn him loose.

Great work by Aquilino, incidentally, to get out of the jam.

http://economics.about.com
I'd love to hear JP's conversation with Keith Law at Fenway today.

Does someone want to take a shot at what the dialogue would look like?

I don't think JP would be all that critical. I mean, he's the one who put 12 pitchers on the roster in April. If you're going to carry a million pitchers, why not use them?

The Jays used 443 relievers last year. Any guesses on this year's usage?

I just started watching in the 7th.. I thought Tschida's strikezone was all over the place.. glad to see I'm not alone.

Cheers,

Mike

Arrggghhh! Why is lefty-masher Johnson bunting on a 1-2 count?

Boy, it would be tough to take losing two of three to a Red Sox team missing Garciaparra and Nixon, and forced to use the likes of Crespo, Bellhorn, Reese, Jones and Milaska as much as they have.

It sure would have been nice to have a right-handed pinch-hitter for Cat. Is it really that important to have both Sean Douglass and Josh Towers in the pen in case the game goes 25 innings?

Anyone know if Towers is available? We assume he is but I remember reading in the paper yesterday that because he hadn't had a chance to pitch in a real game yet that he may pitch a simulated game over the week-end. Hopefully they haven't done it yet (and i suspect it would be scheduled for tomorrow since he's starting on the 17th), otherwise there's no one left in the pen other than Douglass!

There is absolutely no justification for Tosca's handling of the bullpen today. None. When the team was stuck with the likes of Jeff Tam and Tanyon Sturtze, there was at least semi-reasonable logic behind the frequent moves, but this bullpen was given an almost complete overhaul in the offseason and now there's several quality arms out there. These moves today were utterly pointless.

Tosca's frequent trips to the mound never really came back to bite him in the last two years, but that may change today. Lopez has already gone two innings and is probably getting close to spent, and all that's left in the bullpen is Douglass and Towers. That's inexcusable.

What we saw today should not be allowed to occur ever again.

It sure would have been nice to have a right-handed pinch-hitter for Cat.

Hopefully, the not too distant future will have Rios in RF (CF?) and Catalanotto/Johnson platoon partners.

Towers has been warming several times today according to the Red Sox radio broadcasters (though I've never spotted him on the Sportsnet video).

Just to remind everyone, Lopez was also used briefly in the last two games. That isn't going to help is stamina any today.

Just browsing some of this afternoon's box scores...

Batting cleanup at DH for the Twins: Jose Offerman.

Ugh.

Outstanding effort by Lopez, no matter the outcome from this point.

So much for the stamina issue...

Tosca has a lot of splaining to to do

Hell. Crappy finish to a crappy game that started well.

But the bullpen use last year was semi-successful: the Jays won 86 last year afterall. So it doesn't surprise me that Tosca would revert to a winning formula so early in the season.

Poor A-Lo, he deserved better. He was obviously spent but his idiotic manager used all his other relievers, and had no one else to go to.

Overheard on tonight's flight: "JP, any chance we could shorten the bench and beef up the bullpen? I'm running a little light. Maybe an extra lefty or two. Or how about some versatile guys like Kieschnick and McCarty?"

This is really the first time Tosca's poor bullpen management has gotten him into any significant trouble. Hopefully it'll be a wake-up call for him.

This day was bound to come.

http://economics.about.com
How exactly is this Tosca's fault?

Look, this team was constructed for hyperactive pitching changes and pretty much no pinch hitting. That's what Tosca did. He used the weapons he's been given, and used them decently. Not great, mind you, but not terribly either.

If the Jays had a decent bench, this game doesn't go 12 innings. Cash has yet to show the ability to hit major league pitching. If the Jays still had Tom Wilson, there's no way he comes up to bat with the bases loaded in a crucial situation. Simon Pond is a great bat to have on the bench, but he's pretty much only useful for pinch hitting for a middle infielder or Cat.

If the Jays are going to carry Cash, they need another catcher on the bench, or else this is going to be a common occurance.

Cheers,

Mike

http://economics.about.com
That should have read:

If the Jays still had Tom Wilson, there's no way Cash comes up to bat with the bases loaded in a crucial situation.

This is really the first time Tosca's poor bullpen management has gotten him into any significant trouble. Hopefully it'll be a wake-up call for him.

This year maybe but it cost him many times last year. Plus we don't even know how to measure the effect of all the warm-up pitches, stress etc. and others associated with pitching changes.

Many folk on this site thought that maybe Tosca would change with a better bullpen. I thought he might get worse. When you have unreliable pitchers like the Jays did last year, you should never remove a guy pitching well for someone that you cannot trust. However Tosca did it constantly. I'm afraid this year, since he has more 'confidence' in his pen, he will constantly go with the 'match-up' as he figures they are more likely to perform at their expected efficiencies.

http://www.baseballanalysis.com
I think Tosca did a decent job, I don't really get the critisim, he made moves to get the right platoon splits.

The ball/stikes were bad for both teams, Tim Tschidia (sp?) doesnt call the outside pitch, only on the inner half in.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Here's hoping that someone pulls Tosca aside and has a short, but meaningful conversation about effective resource management.

It's just wasteful to use 5 pitchers to get through 2 innings. To give you an idea how wasteful, you would need 3645 pitchers to get through a season that way. Like Tosca, that doesn't account for the possibility of extra innings.

http://www.chancetolive.net
Damn. That was the worst use of a bullpen I have seen in a while. Disgraceful.

I agree that Tosca often makes too many pitching changes (how long will Lopez' arm last?). To be fair, though, the Jays' anemic offense didn't score from the 6th inning on--including missing a glorious opportunity in the 11th--making the manager's job a lot tougher, especially against Boston in pinball-resembling Fenway Park.

I respectfully disagree Mike,

If the Jays had a decent bench, this game doesn't go 12 innings.

When you choose to carry 13 pithers, you are going to have a short bench. Do you truely believe that having thirteen pitchere is not Tosca's idea?

Simon Pond is a great bat to have on the bench, but he's pretty much only useful for pinch hitting for a middle infielder or Cat.

In normal cases yes, but Tosca has already determined he's going for broke by using his entire pen. Why go only half way? You can pinch hit Pond, and either use Berg, or more likely use Phelps. Yes you lose the DH if you use Phelps, but that doesn't matter for at least two innings. Your bullpen situation will already cause you problems in two innings.

I don't think anyone (well at least I'm not) is blaming Tosca entirely for the loss, but his handling of the bullpen was atrocious and certainly didn't help. He put himself in a position in which he lowered his chances of winning immediately (by removing pitchers that didn't neeed to be removed), in extra innings (by not having anyone left to pitch as I doubt Towers was available; why else use A-Lo for a third inning, after pitching the previous two days), and in future games (I admit this is hard to qualify, but it definately exists, otherwise why not use every pitcher every day?).

I think Tosca did a decent job, I don't really get the critisim, he made moves to get the right platoon splits.

Removing Speier for Ligtenburg had nothing to do with platoon splits.

Twelve pitchers obviously not thirteen. Although I intend to blame Tosca if it snows tomorrow.

As noted above, I think Tosca makes too many changes (and probably did today), but usually extra inning games are decided in the 10th-12th innings. I think you've got to be aggressive and try to win within the first few extra-inning frames. Especially in Boston, and with a day off next day.

I think Tosca did a decent job, I don't really get the critisim, he made moves to get the right platoon splits.

The nature of bullpen over-management is that while each specific decision is defensible, the aggregate of those decisions yields:

Pitcher; hand; IP

Batista; R; 7
Adams; R; 0.1
DLS; L; 0.0
Speier; R; 0.2
Ligtenberg; R; 0.2
Kershner; L; 0.1

I agreed with several of Tosca's moves (Adams and Speier especially), as did Mike and a few others here. But the result of all those moves added together was decided sub-optimal usage.

I agree with not pinch-hitting for Cash, by the way.

Few observations:

* Tosca wants a traditional closer. Ligtenberg apparently was the choice of closer to start the season. If you're going to have a traditional closer, you can't take him out the first sign of trouble when a lefty comes up. I realize that his platoon splits are wide, but if you're going to go with him you have to go with him, or else have someone else in the role.

* Speier should have started the 8th inning.

* It would have been nice to have a good RH pinch hitter for Cat when it was 1st and 3rd with one out facing a lefty. If Berg can't do it he shouldn't be on the team. You don't need 2 backup MIs.

* Aside from the frequent pitching changes being annoying, it seems that coming into the game to face just a batter or two would be difficult to do. I would think it would take a batter or two to find your groove pitching.

I guess they're professionals and should be able to handle it, but it seems like the constant switches hurt you more than what you gain from a platoon advantage.

http://economics.about.com
I guess they're professionals and should be able to handle it, but it seems like the constant switches hurt you more than what you gain from a platoon advantage.

I absolutely *loathe* all these pitching changes. They drive me up the wall. But the Jays currently have 8 relievers on the roster, 2 of them long guys. They weren't going to run out of pitching until about the 23rd inning, so I really don't see what the problem was.

To clarify this, I'm not blaming the bullpen situation on JP either. Picking up Douglass was a good move coz he's got a good arm, so they had to go with 12. Unless you're going to send A-Lo to AAA or something like that. Signing Terry Adams might have been overkill, but given how often pitchers get injured, depth is a good thing.

I'm not sure what exactly Dave Berg's role is either. You'd think a guy like Hermansen or Tom Wilson (now with Oakland) would be a lot more useful for this club.

Cheers,

Mike

*Aside from the frequent pitching changes being annoying, it seems that coming into the game to face just a batter or two would be difficult to do. I would think it would take a batter or two to find your groove pitching.

I agree completely. I also think that relievers on the whole are inconsistant. That's partly the reason why they are relievers, as if they were more consistant many of them would be starters. They way I look at is this: Relievers have their good stuff say half the time. The more relievers used in a game, the more likely there is that one of them is going to have an 'off-night'. The problem is the first guy you get to having that off-night can cost you the game.

This discussion, along with Mike Wilner's comments on the post-game show, leads to a question- "how would you use each of the members of this bullpen?".

Personally, I wouldn't try to make batter by batter platoon adjustments. Rather, I'd focus on getting pitchers work and rest alternately. I'd mentally create two shifts each with two righties and one lefty (say DLS/Ligtenberg/Speier and Adams/Kershner/Lopez). You don't bring in the lefties to face one batter. Rather, if you have two of the next three batters being left-handed, you might bring in the lefty to face three. I'd have no hesitation about Kershner going 2 or 3 innings.

So in today's game, let's say it was a DLS/Ligtenberg/Speier today. As Batista gave you a good 7, you've got Bellhorn/Mueller/Ortiz due up. Easy call. DLS gets the ball for three batters. Then Ligtenberg or Speier gets the ball through at least the ninth (unless they don't bring any stuff on that day). You've got the other for 2-3 innings after that.

Yesterday, Halladay went 7, and with Ortiz/Ramirez/Millar coming up, I'd have gone with Adams for the 8th.

As far as I am concerned, this bullpen has six pitchers of roughly equal talent. The key is to both get them regular work, and not overwork them.

I'm sure that there are other good alternatives, so let's help CT out.

Speier obviously should have started the 8th inning. With only six outs left why are you going to your middle relievers? It's silly. Go to the designated setup guy. When the other guys got in trouble Tosca had to go to Speier anyway, using up three pitchers in one inning in the process. In a one run game. Absolutely indefensible.

Of course, none of this would have been an issue if Ligtenberg hadn't made an incredibly horrible 0-2 pitch to Crespo. If he's able to get him out then the Jays win the game. His slider today was nowhere near as good as it was in spring training. If he can't use his breaking ball against lefties then there's no way he can close games against good offensive teams.

Having a shortstop with any kind of range playing in the field would have also been helpful. At least two plays not made by Gomez that should have been made. I hope the reason for Woodward sitting was an injury.

Look, this team was constructed for hyperactive pitching changes and pretty much no pinch hitting.

Agree on the pinch hitting, disagree on the hyperactive pitching changes. It's Tosca's choice to make frequent pitching changes; it's not a necessity based on the way the bullpen is constructed.

This year the bullpen has relievers who can actually get hitters out, making it less necessary to go with the platoon advantage every time. In fact one thing Ricciardi often mentioned during the spring is that the team now has lefties who are capable of getting both lefties and righties out. While there are two right handers in the bullpen who have significant platoon splits (Ligtenberg and Lopez), Tosca has not used them as righty specialists.

From Tosca's comments over the last two years, he bases quite a few of his moves on specific pitcher-batter match-ups, many of which don't exceed 10 at-bats. As we all know, those numbers are practically useless. Tosca doesn't seem to be aware of the sample size issues when looking at them.

Overall I still like Tosca as a manager, but he needs to learn how to manage a bullpen effectively. Today he ran the bullpen dry. The team had an off-day just three days earlier and in this series the starters went seven innings twice and six innings once. Under those conditions and with the composition of the bullpen, there's no excuse for Tosca running out of competent pitchers after just 11 innings. Lopez should not have had to go out there for the 12th after he had worked in three consecutive games and had just finished his second inning of the day.

Correction: Lilly went only 5 1/3 innings in his start on Friday, not six innings.

Bullpen usage.

How would I use the guys in the pen? With the obvious caveat that a manager must take into account who is healthy, who is rested, and what the upcoming schedule is like, here is how I would ideally use the pen.

Adams - Setting up where there is a string of lefties or a lefty-predominant lineup. I don't mind giving Adams two innings, even the 8th and 9th, against a team that's lefty-heavy. 6th inning occasionally (along with dlS and Ligtenberg), and his share of 7th innings. If I've gotten into a war of reliever attrition, I have no problem with Adams closing, but he's very much the 3rd choice. I'd have him pitching more when the team is ahead, and Ligtenberg more when the team is behind.

de los Santos - All the pressure LOOGY situations, the big lefties. I want him to specialize in the big lefty hitters, and pitching his share of 6th innings along with Adams and Ligtenberg.

Kershner - low pressure situations. Kershner, of everyone, is the guy I'm most concerned about blowing up. I would use him to bridge a short start for a couple of innings, I would use him as a LOOGY in lower-pressure situations, I would let him close ballgames where there's a big lead or the team is behind. He would be my 11th man on the staff, with the hope that he will inherit more of the pressure LOOGY situations.

Ligtenberg - I wouldn't use Ligtenberg in the ROOGY role, I don't like that role at the best of times except for a very young pitcher. I want him handling one-inning stints, though, and not more. Whether that's the 6th, 7th, or 8th matters not to me. I want him pitching a lot when the team is behind (especially winnable games, down one or two runs) because the opposition is less likely to send a lot of PHs.

Lopez - Setting up in close games, but pitching as much as possible in those 2- and 3-run lead situations. I would let him close out ballgames with bigger leads, and closing everything where Speier needs rest, or has thrown too many pitches after coming in in the 8th. If the opposition has a string of real tough righties, I would have Lopez close instead of Speier, since I think Lopez's slider makes him tougher for those guys in particular to hit. I would be careful, though, to encourage El Aguila to GO RIGHT AFTER everyone. I don't want him nibbling, but challenging guys to hit that slider. So having him in one-run or tie games may not work as well, because I'd like him to have the luxury of giving up a couple of long hits.

Speier - I'd have Speier closing tight ballgames. I'd have him pitching in the 8th almost every game where there was a tie. Lefties, righties, switch-hitters, Javy Lopez, it wouldn't matter. Speier is my man, my top reliever.

12th man - Handles most true ROOGY situations (provided he can handle it - Nakamura probably could, Douglass I'm not so sure), and pitches where the team is well behind or where the starter is knocked out before the 5th, bringing them up to the 6th and Kershner. If Lilly starts and goes out early, I want the 12th man to bridge up to Kershner, hopefully turn a player or two around, get someone out of the game.

Mostly, I want to use guys in one-inning chunks where the game isn't tied or protecting a one-run lead. There is a very strong temptation, where you have a bunch of good relievers, to burn them successively, getting yourself killer matchups.

I have a DMB team currently with a very similar pen to this Jays pen. Danys Baez is my erstwhile closer, with Ligtenberg, Antonio Osuna, and Turk Wendell as righties and Mike Gallo, Mike Matthews and Felix Heredia as my lefties. It's a tough pen to manage because there is a very, very strong temptation to play reliever roulette, because you can get some super matchups if you play your cards right. The problem is that, as always, you burn through guys and then the guy you count on the end isn't effective and you have no one to go to. Planning ahead, warming guys up correctly and playing them at the spot in the order where they will be most effective, is hard. Obviously it's much. much harder in real life than in Diamond Mind but where you have a bunch of guys who are just reasonably effective, managing the pen is tougher.

http://economics.about.com
I agree 100% with what Craig said.

I have a DMB team currently with a very similar pen to this Jays pen. Danys Baez is my erstwhile closer, with Ligtenberg, Antonio Osuna, and Turk Wendell as righties and Mike Gallo, Mike Matthews and Felix Heredia as my lefties.

I prefer my Borowski-Armando Benitez-Danny Graves bullpen in BBFL. I notched 10 saves this week, which has to be some kind of league record.

Of course, the rest of my team sucks, so I lost 7-4.

Cheers,

Mike

I had 10 saves against me this week. I believe it's Leigh's team.

I guess I am late with this (was in Europe), but did anyone read Michael Lewis' little article in SI. Is this guy for real?

I've said this many times I'm sure. My philosophy has been that every manager will get picked on for bullpen management at some point no matter what they do.

So I decided long before Tosca became the manager that if the only complaint I had about a manager was with his bullpen management then he must be doing a pretty darn good job. After watching tonight's game however, I'm seriously reconsidering my stance.

From Tosca's comments over the last two years, he bases quite a few of his moves on specific pitcher-batter match-ups, many of which don't exceed 10 at-bats. As we all know, those numbers are practically useless. Tosca doesn't seem to be aware of the sample size issues when looking at them.

I noticed this on several occasions last year whenever Tosca has given his justification for pitching changes. It's always bugged me but I've kept my mouth shut until now. I think that's the biggest problem to me. It's like he doesn't fully understand basic principles behind the numbers and he believes they show more than they really do. He'd be better off just using simple common sense rather than misusing the statistics. Oh well, hopefully a good nights sleep will see me refreshed and ready for the teams fortunes to turn around next week.

did anyone read Michael Lewis' little article in SI. Is this guy for real?

I read it and quite liked it.

The thing you have to remember about Lewis is that he's not really a baseball writer. He's used to writing about CEOs and presidential candidates and people like that. So when he looks at the baseball world, he's amused and finds all this controversy about his book kind of cute, because it's so inconsequential to the world he lives in. Tracy Ringolsby (for instance) thinks Michael Lewis is nobody because he's not a baseball writer; Lewis thinks Ringolsby is . . . well, not nobody, but nobody he needs to worry about, because he is a baseball writer. Lewis doesn't need baseball in any way, and therefore he can say whatever he wants, and the chips can fall where they may.

First off, I don't blame Tosca or the Jays for losing this one. It's hard to win an extra-inning game on the road.

But I'm wondering: has anyone studied the issue? Without knowing any answers, here's what I think are the advantages and disadvantages of changing pitchers a lot:

Advantages:
- You get the platoon matchup
- Nobody has to work too long in an individual outing
- Nobody rots away in the bullpen

Disadvantages:
- If you keep changing pitchers often enough, you'll find the guy who is having a bad day
- Pitchers might tire out from repeated outings
- You could get caught short if a game goes into extra innings
- Fans get bored as heck, and resolve never to return to ballpark again

In particular, I guess I'm wondering whether the platoon advantage is worth all the trouble.

Ack. I forgot to add that the question is whether the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

I suppose that another advantage is that the manager gives the impression of being decisive.

I prefer my Borowski-Armando Benitez-Danny Graves bullpen in BBFL. I notched 10 saves this week, which has to be some kind of league record.

Of course, the rest of my team sucks, so I lost 7-4.

I'd like to thank Commissioner Moffatt on behalf of my K-Town Mashers for this gift-wrapped win - my boys didn't exactly light it up themselves. I would particularly like to point out that they compiled zero saves.

[Insert mocking laughter]

This may be another one of my ideas completely out of left field, so consider it at your own risk...

On Tosca using pitcher-batter match-ups to make in-game decisions, I wonder if he's doing it because he mistakenly thinks it's what the front office expects of him. He knows Ricciardi and Co. rely on numbers heavily in their decision making process, and Tosca may think he has to use numbers to show he's doing his job and knows what's going on. Since he's a baseball coach and not a statistician, he doesn't have the background to know the difference between useful statistics (like the ones the front office uses) and statistics that tell you very little (like Joe Batter being 0-for-3 against Bob Reliever over a four year span).

Since he's entering his third year with the team, I'm a little surprised no one from the front office has mentioned to him that the sample sizes for most historical pitcher-batter match-ups are too small for the numbers to be even remotely significant.

You have to wonder how all the constant switching weighs on the actual players themselves. I'm thinking of course about last season when Politte was quite visibly PO'ed at Tosca for pulling him after one batter or something like that (I forget the exact scenario)

Ryan, I've wondered that exact same thing on several occasions.

He knows Ricciardi and Co. rely on numbers heavily in their decision making process, and Tosca may think he has to use numbers to show he's doing his job and knows what's going on.

Look, the man's not stupid. Tosca's a very smart man (at least I think he is - he's awfully cagey with the media so it can be a bit hard to tell what he really thinks), and I'm sure he understands exactly what the philosophy of the front office is. It's his job to win the ballgames, and I think that Tosca - while understanding quite well our dislike of the pitching changes, and our reasons for doing so - just prefers to do it this way.

I mean, if it were Larry Bowa or Jimy Williams somebody, I'd chalk it up to ignorance. Not with Carlos Tosca.

Of course, the rest of my team sucks, so I lost 7-4.

Mike shouldn't feel too bad. Check out the final results from The Leftovers:

Scoreboard: Week 1
Burlington Robbers vs 0
Matsumura Fishworks 11

Small sample size, small sample size, small sample size...

I don't think Ryan (Original Ryan) is implying that Tosca is stupid, neither am I. Just that he may not understand things like sample size. Many very bright people just don't have the mathematical background to be aware of such things. Numbers don't lie..... but the people who use them do, and most of the time it's unintentional. You see this kind of misuse/abuse of statistics in national publications all the time. You not only have to look at the numbers, but the significance that those numbers hold and it's the latter step that is all too often forgotten. And of course it's just a theory, I don't know the full reasons for all of Tosca's decisions, but I wouldn't rule out Ryan's theory. Maybe JP/Keith Law has shown him evidence that relievers are more effective in shorter stints. Otherwise it's something that can be explained to Tosca. Overall though, I think Tosca is a great leader and teacher for the team.

I don't think Ryan (Original Ryan) is implying that Tosca is stupid, neither am I. Just that he may not understand things like sample size. Many very bright people just don't have the mathematical background to be aware of such things.

Bingo. I know a number of very smart people who have made the exact same mistakes when it comes to numbers. Heck, there was even a time when I made them. :-)

Another possibility for Tosca's over-reliance on pitcher-batter match-ups is him simply electing to play it safe. Sabermetrically-inclined folks have often criticized managers for taking that stance when it comes to the use of the closer. If a manager tries something different and it doesn't work, he has to take the heat for it afterward. But if the manager goes with the standard strategy and it doesn't work, he can completely wash his hands of it because everyone else does that that way.

It could be the same story with managing by the numbers. If Joe Batter is 1-5 against Speier but 3-4 against Adams, Tosca could yank Adams and bring in Speier to avoid any second-guessing. If Adams is left in there and gives up a home run, someone is bound to ask why he wasn't pulled for Speier. If Speier is brought in and gives up a home run, all Tosca has to say is "look up the numbers."

Have some faith, people.

This is an organization with a plan, and you can rest assured that Tosca is acting in accord with it. We may not know what that plan is, and we certainly ought not to afford it a blind and unyielding faith in terms of its chances for effectiveness; but we know that it's there, and Tosca is following it.

Questioning the tactics is great, but unequivocally trasing them entails at least an implicit suggestion that the team would be better off substituting our own for that of the organization - and that would require a degree of arrogance that I am just not capable of.

It's important not to contextualize too much. Sure, it may not have worked today, but passing judgment on a tactic based on one game is as foolhardy as judging a player based on a game's performance - and I know that nobody here would do that.

The thing you have to remember about [Michael]Lewis is that he's not really a baseball writer. He's used to writing about CEOs and presidential candidates and people like that ...

Good points, Matthew, re: Lewis. However, basically there is a guy who's been involved in baseball, running businesses, and being president: why, it's our very own George W. Bush! Maybe Lewis can write a book about him -- that is, if there's any more room in bookstores and such.

As for the game ... I enjoyed it more than most of you here, I'm sure, because though I like the Blue Jays, they're not "my team." Here's what I said to myself when I processed that the count was 2-2 to Ortiz in the 12th, and as Lopez started his delivery: "Uh-oh." I'm not clairvoyant, and maybe it was just the usual Gizzi Pessimism, but I didn't have a great feeling about that pitch ...

http://economics.about.com
I'd like to thank Commissioner Moffatt on behalf of my K-Town Mashers for this gift-wrapped win - my boys didn't exactly light it up themselves. I would particularly like to point out that they compiled zero saves.

It's my job to emulate Bud Selig, and creating the BBFL's equivalent to the Brewers, I've done just that. :)

Mike shouldn't feel too bad. Check out the final results from The Leftovers

It ended up being 12-0. Sweep!

I'm honestly not sure how that happened. You've put together a good team, Rob. Just one of those weeks.

Cheers,

Mike

It's important not to contextualize too much. Sure, it may not have worked today, but passing judgment on a tactic based on one game is as foolhardy as judging a player based on a game's performance - and I know that nobody here would do that.

It's not just one game -- Tosca's been doing this for as long as he's been manager. I was complaining about the same things here nearly a year ago, and in that particular instance everything worked out.

What happened in Sunday's game was bound to happen sooner or later and was entirely preventable. Even if the Jays had won yesterday, it was still a reckless and short-sighted strategy.

It's also possible that Tosca is simply just learning how to use a bullpen effectively - this is the first Jays pen that he's had that is actually talented and he has to learn to overcome his practiced tendencies from last season. He's in the 8th inning of the third game against a really tough team, on the road, with a small lead, and his team is possibly feeling a little whipped with the 1-4 record they had going into the game. The bullpen usage in todays game really looks like it was over managed, and maybe that overmanagement is because Tosca doesn't yet know how to do it better, or maybe Tosca was emotional and trying really hard to get his team a win.

Craig, that's a rational use of the bullpen. I don't quite agree about the relative merits of the staff, but your method would surely be much, much better than the current strategy. There are many ways to skin a cat (Yikes, where did that saying come from?).

I am however doubtful that having De Los Santos facing David Ortiz or Jason Giambi alone 3 days in a row is an effective approach. Give him a day off in the middle at least. I suspect you might agree about that.

The key point is that when Lilly gives you 5.1 innings, and then Halladay and Batista each give you 7, and you have a day off before and after the series, and you're facing a depleted Red Sox lineup, your bullpen should not be wiped out at the end. Properly utilized in this series, all six members of the bullpen would have gotten some but not too much use. This was an easy one. It does, as you say, get much harder as the season wears on, and you may get a series of poor starting performances in a row.

no answer to my Anchorage question?

I heard several innings in the car, and Mrs. Coach will attest to my clairvoyance, as I predicted when the Jays would tie it up and when they took the lead. However, I didn't see much of this one, as my father-in-law is a big golf nut and they were apparently playing the seventh game of that sport's World Series yesterday. Like the Jays, Ernie Els played very well, only to get beat by a powerful lefty.

Without seeing how any of the relievers looked, I won't second-guess the skipper. I'll just say that one comp to his "micromanaging" of his bullpen is our collective microcriticism. No matter what Tosca does, somebody here thinks it's wrong.

It sucks to be 1-5, but from where I sit, the bullpen looks much better than last year's, three guys have made very good starts, and sooner or later, the cleanup hitter will go on a tear, getting the offensive machine into high gear.

Steve, I believe it's "Anchorageite" or "Anchoragite"

How about 'anchorite'? 'Anchovy'?

I was going to suggest just plain 'Alaskan,' but what about 'Anchor'?

http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=Anchorageite&btnG=Search&meta=
I'd go for "Anchoragean", rhyming with Glaswegian. Like the sound better than "Anchorageite", although the locals apparently use "Anchorageite". COMN.

To balance the scales somewhat, Tosca deserves praise in my books for sticking with Cash. It would have been tempting to have pinch-hit for him in key situations, but Tosca has done the courageous and right thing by letting him have his shot. I still don't know whether Cash is going to hit .210 or .250, but we'll never know until he gets at least a half-season under his belt.

http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=Anchorageite&btnG=Search&meta=
I'd go for "Anchoragean", rhyming with Glaswegian. Like the sound better than "Anchorageite", although the locals apparently use "Anchorageite". COMN.

To balance the scales somewhat, Tosca deserves praise in my books for sticking with Cash. It would have been tempting to have pinch-hit for him in key situations, but Tosca has done the courageous and right thing by letting him have his shot. I still don't know whether Cash is going to hit .210 or .250, but we'll never know until he gets at least a half-season under his belt.

I agree with most of what's been said so far... and would like to add that if Mike Bordick had been playing this game, it would have been over in 9 and we'd all be talking about a great Jays victory.

It's not fair to judge Gomez on the one game I've see him play, but he doesn't seem smooth, nor have ANY lateral range! Hudson seems to cover twice as much ground, and Woodward may not have great range but it just seems like he would have been standing in the right spot on at least a few of those grounders!

Anyone have any input on Gomez? Was this just a bad game?