It turns out that Coach, Robert and I had different thoughts when we saw Sir Sidney Ponson take the mound against the Crimson Hose on Sunday night. I thought the poor unfortunate had been stung by a bee (or possibly a hive thereof); Kent immediately wondered if someone had taken an air compressor to him and given him the Michelin treatment; Robert just thought he looked on the swollen side. As it turns out, Sir Sidney has just been enjoying the finer things in life, as befits one of his lofty station.
Now lest I be accused of lèse majesté, I assure you that the goodly knight tossed a gem against the Sox, and probably outpitched his All-World rival, Pedro. But it led to a discussion of an interesting point, which is that there are certain pitchers that I would generally prefer not to take a chance on: those that carry a lot of extra bulk, and those whose physical condition varies wildly from year to year or particularly within a year.
Very big pitchers, and especially very tall and very big pitchers, (and yes, C.C. Sabathia, I am looking in your direction) are going to be very susceptible to foot and ankle problems because of the severity of the delivery motion on them dogs. Pushing off and planting with a lot of bulk is a lot of pressure to put on the feet. And when you have extremely big people, foot injuries are some of the hardest and longest to heal. This is why NBA centers, for one, almost never come back to 100% after any kind of foot injury, and why most of their careers seem to be eventually curtailed by flower body problems of some kind. For extremely large pitchers, the danger will be similar, but magnified because the mechanics of the delivery require a smooth, regulated, consistent lower body motion to provide a stable foundation for the arm. If not careful, foot and ankle injuries can (pure speculation as far as I know, but a common enough conclusion) lead directly to shoulder injuries as pitchers struggle to gain consistent mechanical form.
Mind you, none of this prevents me from drafting Jason Jennings in the BBFL, but that's because I'm an idiot, not because I'm unconcerned about his health situation.
Pitchers whose physical conditioning varies widely – a tougher class to pick, it is true – would encounter similar problems as their bodies grow and change. My own weight has bounced up and down over time (those who saw me last night would agree that it's mostly up), and I assure you that it affects balance, a key factor in maintaining good mechanical form. It certainly has to affect the pitcher's proprioception (that “sixth sense” of the body's positioning in space, so important to athletes) and proprioceptive feedback is what keeps a pitcher's delivery smooth – especially when he's tired. Which, if you're in a period where you're out of condition, happens more easily.
Now I'm not suggesting that fat guys can't play. I don't believe that for a second (I've often said that one of the things I love about baseball is it puts us fat guys centre stage, on a near-level playing field with the trim 'n' lovelies). But I do think the injury risk is greater – mostly for pitchers, but for hitters too, and looking at Dmitri Young breaking his leg running the bases last night just reinforced that for all of us.
Bill James, in the 1984 Abstract, pointed to the 1983 White Sox (as he later would with the 1986 Astros) as a very successful team with a questionable future because they had a lot of fat pitchers. We know now what happened to those teams; the Sox had gone 99-63 and won the AL West by twenty games in 1983 and fell to 74-88 in 1984; they stuck their head above .500 in 1985 and spent the rest of the decade floundering below .500. The reason? OK, it wasn 't the pitching, it was the offense which got lucky in 1983 and got worse thereafter. But the pitching staff had been third in the AL in ERA in 1983, and was 10th in 1984 after adding Tom Seaver. LaMarr Hoyt and Salome Barojas in particular had short careers after 1983.
The '86 Astros fell by twenty games to 76-86 in 1987 and the pitching declined by well over a hundred runs, and continued to slide over the next two years as Houston slid further from contention. The 1986 Astros had the Cy Young Award winner in Scuffy Scott, and a lights-out bullpen anchored by Dave Smith, Charlie Kerfeld, and Aurelio Lopez. None of these guys could possibly be considered svelte; Kerfeld in particular was a massive 6'6” and positively globular in shape (and a good reason not to trust listed weights; if Kerfeld weighed 225 pounds, then I get to claim 150). James picked them out as a team that would have a hard time keeping a big pitching staff healthy and together; he proved right.
I thought that these pitchers, collectively, would show more drop-off than they did. Smith would be effective for years thereafter; Scott never again approached in 1986 level but was a productive starter for years. Even LaMarr Hoyt had a couple more good years. I think this begs for a larger study; but at any rate, I thought this would be good food for thought. I certainly find it interesting that the Ricciardi Blue Jays don't seem to have any use for a guy who's not in shape; even though generously proportioned pitchers are all the rage throughout baseball, the Jays don't have one. Maybe they've done this work already?
I'd love to collect the thoughts of the Bauxites on this stuff. I was going to do a "Notes" column today, but I got off on this tangent instead. Maybe tomorrow!
Now lest I be accused of lèse majesté, I assure you that the goodly knight tossed a gem against the Sox, and probably outpitched his All-World rival, Pedro. But it led to a discussion of an interesting point, which is that there are certain pitchers that I would generally prefer not to take a chance on: those that carry a lot of extra bulk, and those whose physical condition varies wildly from year to year or particularly within a year.
Very big pitchers, and especially very tall and very big pitchers, (and yes, C.C. Sabathia, I am looking in your direction) are going to be very susceptible to foot and ankle problems because of the severity of the delivery motion on them dogs. Pushing off and planting with a lot of bulk is a lot of pressure to put on the feet. And when you have extremely big people, foot injuries are some of the hardest and longest to heal. This is why NBA centers, for one, almost never come back to 100% after any kind of foot injury, and why most of their careers seem to be eventually curtailed by flower body problems of some kind. For extremely large pitchers, the danger will be similar, but magnified because the mechanics of the delivery require a smooth, regulated, consistent lower body motion to provide a stable foundation for the arm. If not careful, foot and ankle injuries can (pure speculation as far as I know, but a common enough conclusion) lead directly to shoulder injuries as pitchers struggle to gain consistent mechanical form.
Mind you, none of this prevents me from drafting Jason Jennings in the BBFL, but that's because I'm an idiot, not because I'm unconcerned about his health situation.
Pitchers whose physical conditioning varies widely – a tougher class to pick, it is true – would encounter similar problems as their bodies grow and change. My own weight has bounced up and down over time (those who saw me last night would agree that it's mostly up), and I assure you that it affects balance, a key factor in maintaining good mechanical form. It certainly has to affect the pitcher's proprioception (that “sixth sense” of the body's positioning in space, so important to athletes) and proprioceptive feedback is what keeps a pitcher's delivery smooth – especially when he's tired. Which, if you're in a period where you're out of condition, happens more easily.
Now I'm not suggesting that fat guys can't play. I don't believe that for a second (I've often said that one of the things I love about baseball is it puts us fat guys centre stage, on a near-level playing field with the trim 'n' lovelies). But I do think the injury risk is greater – mostly for pitchers, but for hitters too, and looking at Dmitri Young breaking his leg running the bases last night just reinforced that for all of us.
Bill James, in the 1984 Abstract, pointed to the 1983 White Sox (as he later would with the 1986 Astros) as a very successful team with a questionable future because they had a lot of fat pitchers. We know now what happened to those teams; the Sox had gone 99-63 and won the AL West by twenty games in 1983 and fell to 74-88 in 1984; they stuck their head above .500 in 1985 and spent the rest of the decade floundering below .500. The reason? OK, it wasn 't the pitching, it was the offense which got lucky in 1983 and got worse thereafter. But the pitching staff had been third in the AL in ERA in 1983, and was 10th in 1984 after adding Tom Seaver. LaMarr Hoyt and Salome Barojas in particular had short careers after 1983.
The '86 Astros fell by twenty games to 76-86 in 1987 and the pitching declined by well over a hundred runs, and continued to slide over the next two years as Houston slid further from contention. The 1986 Astros had the Cy Young Award winner in Scuffy Scott, and a lights-out bullpen anchored by Dave Smith, Charlie Kerfeld, and Aurelio Lopez. None of these guys could possibly be considered svelte; Kerfeld in particular was a massive 6'6” and positively globular in shape (and a good reason not to trust listed weights; if Kerfeld weighed 225 pounds, then I get to claim 150). James picked them out as a team that would have a hard time keeping a big pitching staff healthy and together; he proved right.
I thought that these pitchers, collectively, would show more drop-off than they did. Smith would be effective for years thereafter; Scott never again approached in 1986 level but was a productive starter for years. Even LaMarr Hoyt had a couple more good years. I think this begs for a larger study; but at any rate, I thought this would be good food for thought. I certainly find it interesting that the Ricciardi Blue Jays don't seem to have any use for a guy who's not in shape; even though generously proportioned pitchers are all the rage throughout baseball, the Jays don't have one. Maybe they've done this work already?
I'd love to collect the thoughts of the Bauxites on this stuff. I was going to do a "Notes" column today, but I got off on this tangent instead. Maybe tomorrow!
