Wow, that's a lot to choose from. Michael Silverman's Tosca article is a must-read.

Without naming names, Carlos says, "...some players have a great deal of room for growth and other ones are closer to where you want them to be."

This is true of any team at any age. Some coach themselves and are sponges for information, others need more attention. Some are receptive, others aren't. In youth baseball, I've cut some kids for reasons that had nothing to do with their skill. In the big leagues, if you can't improve the relationship with a particularly difficult player, try to replace him. I'm not going to speculate about current Jays with "room for growth," but Kelvim Escobar does come to mind, and Brandon Lyon wasn't exactly a coachable kid.

Tosca credits Harvey Dorfman for his recent improvement as a communicator. The psychologist, who first came to my attention in '97 when he "consulted" the Marlins, somehow continues to keep a low profile despite his success with clients like Roy Halladay.

Going by the stats, Ligtenburg is the obvious choice for closer. But I don't think he'll work out (see Politte, Cliff). IMO, better to have Lopez close (with Speier taking over if he can't do it), and Kerry as the 8th inning set-up guy.

Jack Curry's piece in the Times is also great:

"If I was Brian Cashman, if I was Theo Epstein, I can't say how I would react," Ricciardi said, referring to his counterparts in New York and Boston. "But I can't believe if I had all the resources that they had that I wouldn't be doing the same things they've been doing. I think each team has to take advantage of what's given to them."

J.P. does have one edge on his rivals -- the farm system -- though it remains to be seen over the next few years if that's enough to make up for the payroll imbalance. The GM continues to look ahead, hoping his prize prospects get to play some meaningful games in the second half, but considers any 2004 success as "really way ahead of schedule."

http://economics.about.com
Going by the stats, Ligtenburg is the obvious choice for closer. But I don't think he'll work out

I don't think he's a star, but I don't see why he wouldn't "work out". This is a guy who was the everyday closer for a team that won 106 games. He's got a 2.16ERA in 15 playoff experiences. Cliff Politte had never saved a game before he came to Toronto, Ligtenberg has saved 45.

Cheers,

Mike

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1775191
Gammons latest proclaims Armando Rios as someone to watch for to be a fall callup this year, as a result of their exceptional spring. This guy does not know the Jays at all, as he mentions baltimore as team that appears to be improved and not T.O. And also gives the Jays fans hope, by claiming they are a "distant longshot" Bah. On the plus side, he thinks hudson could break out this year.

Politte didn't work out because he was injured. It's pretty difficult for any pitcher to get by with a 90 mph fastball when they're used to throwing 95-97. Cliff didn't have a lot of movement so his velocity was important.

If Kerry stays healthy he should be fine although we'll still have to see how his stuff plays against tough lefties after he struggled against them last year. From what I saw of him on TV his slider looked like it had pretty good tilt but because of his arm slot he will naturally be tough on righties and easier for lefties to see. His command looks good which IMO is the most important thing and he's had a 30+ save season in the past which doesn't suggest he has a mental block in the 9th.

I love Gammons. It's been about two years since I ripped on him, so, in no particular order, here are some gems from that column linked above.

1) Keith Foulke's "dreadful spring." I guess all those years of brilliance from Foulke mean nothing. What really matters is four weeks in March.
2) "The sleeping giant that is the Detroit Tigers." If Gammons had a good sense of humor, I'd assume he's joking here. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, however, since no sane person would refer to the Tigers as a sleeping Giant.
3) Under "concerns," Gammons mentions "Larry Walker's health." Thanks for that breaking news story!
4) Garret Anderson as AL MVP, "finally receiving his due." Anderson is a fine player, but not this fine. This pick is not as dumb as Gammons' Kris Benson for NL Cy Young a while back, but not a great one, either.
5) Bartolo Colon, your 2004 AL Cy Young. Yeah, all those guys named Mulder, Hudson, Zito, Martinez, Vazquez, Schilling, Zito, et all, they're nobodies. And Halladay? Bah. He's an aftershought.
6) Echoing what "sweat" says above, where are the Blue Jays as an improved team? Cleveland? Sure, they're better and the AL Central is a joke, but they're not more improved than Toronto.
7) Ah, the breakout players. Always my favorite section.

Jake Peavy? The guy was good last year, and by "breakout," I assume Gammons means "Mark Prior." Peavy won't get there this year.
Sean Burroughs? All the way to 12 home runs and a .290 batting average?
Mark Teixeira? He slugged .480 as a rookie. How much better will he do this year? 2005 will be Tex's first monster year.
Josh Beckett? Are you kidding? He doesn't have to be any better to "breakout," and he probably won't be any better, because he's already very, very good.
Carl Crawford? Woohoo! Juan Pierre with a few more home runs!

And on and on and on and on and on. I'm just thankful that my first true foray into Gammons in two years -- I've glanced at his stuff, but never read it all the way through -- didn't contain any music lyrics. What's even better is when, haflway through the season and the Jays are, say, 45-35, Gammons will comment on how the Jays are "an emerging team," as if he was on the forefront of the The Toronto Blue Jays Are Good movement. I may now resume my boycott, thankusmuchibus.

I'll be keeping an eye or two on that "Armando Rios" kid, however. Thanks for the tip, Paul.

Jim Caple's feeling bold!

At times Gammons tends towards hyperbole--and his columns could use a good editor--but I think he sometimes makes interesting observations. Incidentally, last spring his choice for 2003 cy young was Halladay. He has been consistently high on Rios (while getting his name right), was high on Vernon Wells very early in his career, and during winter ball tagged Pond as a possible impact rookie in 2004.

He also predicted great things for Ricciardi in Toronto before most other observers got on the bandwagon.

Before anyone annoints Ligtenberg a closer they should look at his 2003 splits.

vs. righties
141AB
.230 OBP
.362 SLG

vs. lefties
87AB
.424 OBP
.529 SLG

His three year splits aren't so extreme but the trend remains. Ligtenberg is a ROOGY. A very good ROOGY but not a closer. I subscribe to the view that any good reliever can be a closer and Ligtenberg, used properly, is a good reliever. However, a traditional 9th inning closer, is not a proper use for someone with such extreme splits.

Speier on the other hand, shows no lefty/righty splits and pitches incredibly effectively against both lefties and righties. When his numbers are Coors-adjusted, he looks that much better. Unless the bottom of the ninth is bringing up all righthanded hitters, I don't want Ligtenberg closing.

Jim Caple's feeling bold!
I've never like Caple all that much so I think that prediction makes me a little less confident in the season.

What surprises me is that in all those writers not one believed Delgado would take the MVP after being runner-up last season or that Halladay would repeat as Cy. Also catching me slightly off guard was Schwarz' ROY being Alex Rios.

From the Star-Ledger article:

The Blue Jays look like a 100-victory team with a devastating lineup and a solid 1-5 rotation...

I'm optimistic about the Jays, but 100 wins seems like a stretch for 2004.

AL PENNANT: Blue Jays
NL PENNANT: Padres
WORLD SERIES: Blue Jays in six games.

And this seems even less likely. I wouldn't complain if it actually happened, of course; I just don't think it will.

Is anyone else watching RSN's "Off-Season" documentary? It's pretty interesting.

I'm just thankful that my first true foray into Gammons in two years -- I've glanced at his stuff, but never read it all the way through -- didn't contain any music lyrics.

You wish. Last sentence of 7th paragraph:

I may be from the woods, but those numbers don't sound too good, to quote Little Feat.

I'm also a fan of:

16 young players who looked so good this spring they will be back in the big leagues this season:
...
6. Chin-Hui Tsao, RHP, Colorado

Tsao had a 6.19 ERA this spring (though he did sport a 3 BB to 15 K ratio). And...

10 spring training surprises:
...
6. Phil Nevin's shrinkage.

Well, the Pacific Ocean is on the chilly side.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1775301
Hijack:

Milton Bradley traded to Dodgers. COMN

Too big a price to pay for the headcase! Bad move by Depo, IMHO

ESPN might benefit from an editor or two. First there was Gammons' "Armando Rios", and now there's Tom Tippett (Diamond Mind guru) proclaiming Rios to be a difference-maker "if he builds on his strong performance in the Arizona Fall League." Based on his projections, the Jays will go 79-83, and have a 1% chance at a WC.

I watched 'The Offseason' this afternoon.

It was interesting and nice look into the players from both a baseball perspective and a people perspective. The part on Woodward was great. From what was shown I'm lead to believe that his work ethic and overall honesty about last season will only help him become better this season. Same with the piece on Cash.

Hentgen's piece was also fantastic. They took a look at CY Young Hentgen vs. Tommy John Hentgen and what should be expected from him this season. He seems sure that he can bounce back and help the Jays win with his fresh sense of command.

Less then 24 hours to go til' the Fighting Jays take to the field!

I've seen Gammons pick the Jays as an up-and-coming dangerous team often enough that I don't think it's a big thing that he didn't say it this time.

RE: any other team have their OF in the first 3 spots in the order?

Not according to ESPN. The closest is, of course, Oakland with Kotsay and Kielty 1 and 2 and Dye 4th. If Chavez flipped with Dye then they'd have 1-2-3 as well.

What's the Over/Under on a David Bush major league debut? He pitched six shutout innings (in relief) yesterday in Syracuse's last spring tune-up, allowing only 2 hits, with no walks, and nine strikeouts!

I'll start with August 1st.

What's the Over/Under on a David Bush major league debut?...I'll start with August 1st.

I'm assuming "over" means after August 1st. So, I will say OVER.

Forget about "Over/Under"!...What's your prediction?

I'll take August 31st

Bush hasn't really missed a beat since joining the organization ... he was sharp even in spring training action. That's an impressive performance for someone who's only posted 70+ innings at Double-A and no innings at all at this level -- even for an exhibition game. Jason Arnold ought to be the first Skychief starter promoted this year ... but if he keeps rolling at Triple-A, Bush could be very close behind. Before August 1 -- maybe well before.

In Bush's previous start he went 5 innings and gave up 5 runs on 7 hits. He will follow Arnold and be up by the all-star break if there are any injuries, Hentgen &/or Lily, or if Towers can't handle the 5th slot.

87 wins. Plus or minus 12. Maybe. :-)

87 wins. Plus or minus 12. Maybe. :-)

Wow, that was pretty bang on last year :) Not to poo-poo on math and science (although I just can't help it, cough*cough English major) I hope it's underestimating. My projection, 88 wins, maybe enough for second, but likely third; guess it depends how badly the big guys beat on each other. Makes me think of the Simpsons and the Isotopes: "Yeah, that sniper at the all-star game was a blessing in disguise. Now we're in the championship game!"

But it all seems to be hinging on the fringe players, who are either going to make or break this year's squad; I believe everyone else will perform at about the same levels (give or take a bit) to level things out. Good springs from Woody and Cash (caught them on The Offseason today, great show btw, see it after the game on SNet if you missed it, 4pm ET) and things look promising. Except for Halladay and Wells, the other four guys on the show (Woody, Cash, Hudson and Hengten) were, IMO, those fringe players, who could be Dontrelles (yay!) or Lidles (boo!).

But enough analysis, let's play ball!

BTW, does anyone ever notice whenever they do commercials or programs about the Jays they rarely, if ever involve Delgado? Wassup with that?

And does anyone know if J-Zone is coming back? I actually enjoyed that show. Baseball and Hazel Mae, ah.......

Delgado has that UnderArmour commercial
I think they wanted to go with the newer guys to show an about turn in the team and its success. Remember old commercials with Gonzo, Green and Delgado...perhaps the fact that he cant act influenced their decision.

And although the season has almost started, where is the Hockey Playoffs thread...
can ANYONE stop the leafs this year? although brodeur is my favorite goalie, i would say belfour has outplayed him and been far more valuable for the time hes been in the lineup... lets hope he stays or atleast plays healthy. Too bad im stuck here in Waterloo with exams, but i will be drivin down to Ottawa to catch game 6 if the sens last that long ;)

My take: Bush is the best starter in Syracuse by a fair piece and is called up June 15 due to an injury.

I don't know if anybody saw it, but there is a juicy trade rumour to get opening day started. Jeff Blair reported in today's G&M that the Jays were scouting Mota in an exhibition game over the weekend.

www.theglobeandmail.com/sportsTPBaseball/

http://economics.about.com
Hi Kids!

Today's roundup is going to be delayed until 10:30 or so.. gotta take care of a bunch of stuff at work.

Cheers,

Mike

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2735
PECOTA has the Jays 23 games out of the wild card with 82 wins. COMN.

I don't buy the numbers (they don't factor in the BALCO investigation effects on Sheffield and Giambi, and don't adequately account for the effect of the Yankee defence on the new starters). They also have the Yankees scoring 975 runs. I'd gladly take the "under" on that one.

Still, statistically, the Jays have to be listed as significant underdogs.

While we are waiting for Mike to handle his second most important duties here are a couple of stories about some minor leaguers.

Guillermo Quiroz

Russ Adams

Aaron Hill by Kevin Gray

So where's everyone sitting at the game today?

I'll be in centre-left. Beige sweater, next to a friend in a Tigers jersey.

Come say hi.

I don't buy the numbers (they don't factor in the BALCO investigation effects on Sheffield and Giambi, and don't adequately account for the effect of the Yankee defence on the new starters).

They also don't factor in the fact that Pedro Martinez looked utterly stinko yesterday. If he turns into a mortal, that bring the Sox back towards the pack significantly.

They also don't factor in the fact that Pedro Martinez looked utterly stinko yesterday.

I remember the Jays roughing him up a couple years ago on opening day. He rebounded from that one OK.

"Utterly stinko" is a bit strong... Pedro wasn't himself, but 2 ER in 6 IP isn't all that bad (plus 5 Ks, 1 BB and 7 H). Not like his spring training effort against TO. And he had a better Game Score than Sidney Ponson, 52 to 51.

His velocity was down, mostly 88-89 mph and he lost control of a few pitches but he was pretty effective, other than the second inning.

Well, I just ordered MLB Extra Innings as part of the Rogers Super Sports Pak. $22.50 / month ($135 for the season, and it's a weird pricing deal, because if you buy Extra Innings alone they charge $160 for the season).

I also got a PVR about a month ago (highly recommended) and now I may never leave the house!

Wish I was skipping work right about now...