Good article Craig on the Jays! As a daily reader of BB I was interested to read your take on the upcoming baseball season especially for the Jays.

I attend all the home games at Dunedin and I sit in section 206 right beside all the scouts from other teams. The consensus from the scouts that I have asked is that the Jays will win somewhere from 78 to 88 games because the East is the toughest division in baseball. In Fact, the Rays were picked by many scouts to challenge the Jays for 3rd place this year - especially when you see how easily they defeat the Jays even in spring training. Most games with the Rays are no contest. I just hope the Jays can split the season series!

Most scouts say that pitching is the Jays' weakness - with 2 questionable starters and no closer.

Another question mark is the hitting - you touched on this in your excellent article.

Finally, the defense will improve at catcher this year but it is still an adventure at 3rd, short and 1st - more so if Phelps has to play a lot of games.

In short I think your assessment of 94 games may be somewhat optimistic although I hope your right and either the Yanks or the Sox fall off the wagon and the Jays sneak in!!

That's a nice summary, Craig. Here's my take on the offence this year compared with last, based solely on past performance and age:
C: (Cash/Myers instead of Myers/Wilson/Cash): off some, but not as much as imagined.
1b: Delgado- off some, but not much
2b: Hudson- modest improvement
ss- Woodward- modest improvement
3b- Hinske-modest improvement
cf- Wells- about the same (could be better or worse)
corner OF- (Johnson/Cat/kids instead of Cat/Johnson/Stewart/Kielty) off a little

Overall, a very modest decline in performance in the offence (maybe 10-20 runs) is reasonable to expect. The pitching/defence side should be better, but how much is more difficult to pin down.

Oh yeah, I forgot (need a second coffee), Josh Phelps can be expected to be significantly better. Actually, if you were to pin me to a number, I'd say that the Jays score 10 less runs this year compared with last. They might give up 5 fewer or 100 fewer, and I would not be shocked.

your assessment of 94 games may be somewhat optimistic

No, that's my top-line hope. I think if everything breaks right this is a 94-to-97 win team.

I predicted a record of 84-78... right in line with your Florida scouts.

Like everything else at THT, a good read, Craig. As Gitz said, and you have demonstrated, "third best again, too bad about the division," can be expressed in a lot less than 20,000 words, but I ignored that memo.

If the Jays do end up at 84-78, that may not be "acutely disappointing," even to optimists like myself. It would probably mean that the rotation and bullpen didn't perform as expected -- or hoped, depending on your point of view. Anything good that happens in 2004 is a bonus, a year ahead of schedule. It will be far more disappointing if McGowan, Quiroz and Rios all wash out and things get no better in the next two or three years.

Elsewhere at THT, Matthew Namee asks how long it will be before the A's, Jays and Dodgers complete a three-way trade, and sets the over-under at two months. I'm sure that scenario has already been explored, and if the Jays decide they really want/need Duchscherer (or other pitching help) it could happen any time. I'll go out on a limb and predict a four-way deal that nets L.A. a stud OF from some other team, and I'll pick May 29 as the date.

78 to 88 wins? Boy, the scouts are really going out on a limb on that one...haha.

LA is going after Kevin Mench. Maybe that's the four-way deal? Don't forget the Grady Fuson connection.

78 to 88 wins? Boy, the scouts are really going out on a limb on that one...haha.

I don't know, coliver. That's 83 wins, +/- 5. A pretty reasonable fudge factor. (Also, I'm assuming that's not everyone saying "78 to 88", but some saying 78 and some 82 and some 87, etc.)

Tell you what.

I'll bet you $100 that you can't nail 24 of the 30 teams to within five wins.

Bet! Bet! Bet! Bet! Bet!

I agree with Coach's comments on how to view this season. I think 81 to 84 wins is about right for the Jays this year. I think the offense will be very much like the second half of last year which means that for the full year I expect a decline but not a drastic one. I expect the pitching to be better but not by much. But I won't be disappointed in that outcome. What will make or break this season is how the young talent plays that the team will depend on over the next 2-3 seasons. In particular, if Wells, Hinske, Phelps, Hudson, Halladay and Lilly play well and the top prospects continue to develop then the season will be a success. Much as I like him and am pulling for him to succeed, if Pat Hentgen continues to pitch as he has in the spring or some of the bullpen additions stink it up, well - it will be unfortunate but so be it.

Craig,

You ask yourself whether the Jays will trade Delgado to a contender but fail to mention that he has a notrade clause! When the inevitable 'should we trade Delgado' posts start filtering in from casual fans by mid-season, I hope that you aren't too mean on them.

I think a no-trade clause should be viewed as a:
"if you'll sign me to an extension that I like, I'll waive my no-trade clause and join your team"

When the inevitable 'should we trade Delgado' posts start filtering in from casual fans by mid-season, I hope that you aren't too mean on them.

Well, I don't think they should trade Delgado, and I don't think they will. *I* am not speculating about Delgado being traded. I am answering the question, and answering it with a "no".

The "five questions" idea is that we answer five questions about each team. Whether Delgado will be traded is one of the most important questions about the Jays out there, especially for fantasy/roto players, especially for those in AL- on NL-only leagues!

But I will try to be nice to people. I'm going to try to be nice to *everybody* from now on. We'll see if it works.

Craig, everybody includes the Devil Rays?

I only meant to posters on Da Box. :)

Maybe the Ras, but definitely not the Yankees.

Do corporate tax attorneys know how to be nice? :)

Only if fed the correct input.

It's not crazy to envision (in the summer):

1) The Dodgers are somehow in contention in the NL West
2) The Jays are far out of contention in the AL East
3) Delgado is having another great year
4) Delgado won't do a hometown discount
5) The Dodgers are willing to part with preimium prospect(s)

I'm sure Delgado would waive his clause to join his close friend in LA and try to carry a team into the post-season. His no-trade just keeps him safe from joining the Brewers and Pirates of the world. There are other teams that would fit the above scenario as well (even the A's)

My point isn't that there is no possibility that Delgado will get traded. My point is that whenever some casual fan comes to the Box and asks whether Delgado should be traded he/she is often not so subtly reminded by at least 5 Bauxites about the no-trade clause. This isn't in itself wrong because I just don't see how an answer can be given without bringing it up. I just think it was an oversight in Craig's preview.

I think that when a 'casual fan' asks if he should be traded, it is a completely valid question. There definately shouldn't be a response of "he's got a no-trade clause, dumb-ass" as I think Delgado would go (for a shot at the playoffs, more money or both). Note that I'm not suggesting anyone has dismissed this question with the contempt of my example.

http://bluejayscheerclub.com
Craig, does that mean you'll come to the Dome and sit off third base and razz A-Rod and Jeter with me?

"Hey, Derek, some money's coming out of your shoe!"

Aaron, I was going to do that anyway.

I think Cristian is right. If the no-trade had occurred to me, I would probably have mentioned it. I don't think it affects the analysis a lot, but leaving it out was an oversight.

http://bluejayscheerclub.com
Woo-hoo!

Maybe Phil Cuzzi will be third base ump in one of the games and it'll be like three-for-one.

Benum, I think your scenario should be numbered 2 through 6. My #1 would be if Delgado asks to be traded, which seems pretty far-fetched. I truly believe that staying in Toronto is his first choice, if the Jays' offer is competitive. However, Carlos would be foolish not to test the market before making his decision.

Good review Craig, I liked how you did not gloss over our blemishes and the fact that you pointed out that the games have to be played. The Marlins and Angels would second that as well.

Craig, that is what I meant--it is quite a fudge factor.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/040402
Congrats, Craig.

Eric Neel of Page 2 linked to your Jays preview in a pimping The Hardball Times. COMN

Maybe Craig and Eric Neel are (is?) the same person. After all, we've never seen them in the same room together, have we?

Another Craig plug on Page 2...does the Cabal know about this?

Congrats, Craig, but don't worry, I know that there is no Cabal.