Way to go Rays. Off to a great start; the best sign of all wasn't even that Tino Martinez raked (single, double, homer, walk) but that Victor Zambrano had one walk in six innings. If Zambrano can keep his walks down around three per nine innings (instead of six) he will probably be a huge star, he's that good.

If Zambrano can keep his walks down around three per nine innings (instead of six) he will probably be a huge star, he's that good.

That's great news! I autodrafted him last week by accident. hopefully he'll be this year's Esteban Loaiza. Go Rays go!!

Griffey injured AGAIN!?

Sportsnet.ca has Werth going to LA for pitcher Jason Olson. I hope this guy is more than an organizational guy if the story is true.

The Toronto Blue Jays have acquired RHP JASON FRASOR from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for OF JAYSON WERTH.

FRASOR, 26, was originally drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 33rd round of the 1999 First-Year Player Draft. The native of Chicago, Illinois, was sent by the Tigers organization to the Dodgers in September of 2002 to complete a trade in which the Dodgers sent OF Hiram Bocachica to the Tigers for RHP Tom Farmer and a player to be named later on July 25, 2002.

Jay Frasor's numbers are here. He'll be 27 in August and reached AA in the middle of last year.

Last year was his first as a reliever and he responded well after two years of middling performance in Class A ball. He had a 1.85 ERA and 13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings in 24.1 innings at high-A Vero Beach, then a 2.85 ERA and 12.3 strikeouts per 9 innings in 36.2 innings at AA Jacksonville.

Jayson Werth to the Dodgers for Jason Frasor !!!

http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?Name=FDEH
COMN for Frasor's minor league stats. He had great K ratios last year and a low ERA, splitting his time between A and AA, but was 25.

My initial reaction is that a 26 year old minor league reliever for Werth isn't very much.

It's certainly no Mota, Gagne and $ for Werth!

I know this is sinister, but given that the Jays have eyed '05 and beyond for serious contention, would it be the worst thing if Delgado went down for a bit with the knee problem? Vlad's back seriously hurt his value this winter, and I could imagine Carlos's knee pushing his value to around $10 million...

Sometimes you have to cut a player loose for their benefit. Werth might have a great season with the Dodgers but he probably wouldn't have in limited time as the 4th outfielder. It never looks good trading someone off the roster for a AA player though.

I guess the Jays were in a something-for-nothing mode. Looks like they were committed to Pond (or Hermansen? Both, I guess?) and Werth got in the way. I don't like this deal, but then I don't know what else they were offered for Werth. At least they got a potential righty reliever, which is better than nothing.

I'm certainly underwhelmed. The numbers were decent last year even for being way to old for the leagues. Any word on why he appears to have missed a year and a half from 2000-2002. TJ surgery maybe?

Sportsnet has now changed it to Jason Frasor as well. A 27 year-old pitcher who split time between A & AA regardless of stats tends to equal; not much. I stood up for JP yesterdays Round-up in regards to pitching trades but I'm not sold on this move.

My initial reaction is that a 26 year old minor league reliever for Werth isn't very much.

Me too. Ouch. I know Werth mor eor less had to be moved, and that must have made JP's position difficult in negotiations, but I have trouble seeing this as a good deal. Has Werth fallen that far?

Alternately, is this a back-scratcher with DePodesta, and we'll get preferential treatment in some future deal?

Yeah, looking again at the roster, it's now set unless J.P. decides to make a waiver-wire pickup when teams try to shoehorn their NRI guys on.

Miller and File will likely head for the DL (meaning Miller won't be available for 7 days, I think... the 15-day DL is abbreviated to begin the season if the guy doesn't appear at the end of spring), Lilly hits the rotation, six relievers in the pen, and a bench of Pond, Hermansen, Myers, Berg, and Gomez.

Really though- why make the deal? Hermansen and Pond both have less value than Werth, and it wouldn't be that hard to get him 300 ABs this year (unless the plan is to bring Rios/Gross up early on).

Frasor looks like nothing. Maybe this was a favor deal for DePo. Too bad- I liked Werth.

Baseball America analysed the trade that sent Frasor to LA and he is 5'10 with a 89-93 mph high effort fastball and a good curve. He had elbow problems and they thought that he would end up in the bullpen. This was dated Sept 25, 2002 and he had just pitched at High A Lakeland and went 5-6, 3.54 era in 24 starts.

He's a college draftee who it really appears went through Tommy John surgery - yeah he's old - but he's consistently had good results

Frasor looks like nothing

Well, not nothing. The guy had a lights-out year as a closer, in his first year in the role. He's old, but the year-and-a-half he missed to injury put his development clock back. I'm happier to have him than not.

Frasor probably won't amount to anything; he also could be Brendan Donnelly. We just don't know.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/la/team/la_player_bio.jsp?club_context=mlb&playerid=430630
TJ surgery maybe?

Yup - had it in 2001.

He was used as a starter in the 2003 AFL, but that looks like a situation where they were just scheduling pitchers for a certain amount of IP per appearance (he averaged 3.1 IP per appearance). His AFL numbers: 8 Appearances, 7 GS, 26.2 IP, 21 H, 11 BB, 24 K, 2.03 ERA.

This makes me feel slightly better, but it still looks like JP sold low.

Jason
(COMN for Frasor's page on the Dodgers website)

I'm certainly underwhelmed.

It's not like Jayson Werth is a stellar prospect anymore either. I mean he'd be a great player, but for the fact that he can't hit a lick.

Werth is great, seriously...for me to......

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040330/RDECLOET30/Columnists/Columnist?author=Derek+DeCloet
COMN for a Globe article on Rogers and the Jays' finances.

I'm disappointed in the trade. I was looking forward to seeing what Werth could do, and I don't think Frasor addresses any organizational needs.

I guess the Jays were in a something-for-nothing mode.

But that would mean that the Jays feel that Hermansen is more valuable than Werth?

Is there reason to believe that?

But that would mean that the Jays feel that Hermansen is more valuable than Werth?

Is there reason to believe that?

Other than that he's as good a hitter and a better defender? The thing Werth has over Hermansen is that he can catch, and hasn't stunk at the plate in the big leagues for quite as long. Werth is 18 months younger, but I think the Jays are justified in wanting to get what they can while he's still worth something.

I'm not defending the move per se. I maybe wouldn't have made the move myself, I think I would have preferred to let Hermansen go through waivers and waited for someone to have an outfield injury to try to trade Werth.

There's another factor for Hermansen, which is that he's got way more unharnessed talent than Werth does. Hermansen's had three different high minor league seasons ('97 through '99) that were better than Werth has ever done at any level, and hit very well in Vegas last year (though in circumstances that can't be trusted - altitude park in the PCL). Werth's never approached that.

Well, the Jays now have 3 spots open on the 40-man roster. I'm not sure we can analyze the trade fully until the 40-man roster is completed, with other potential trades and/or waiver claims looming in the next few days. The Werth trade fits into a larger plan, but having said that, I'm surprised JP couldn't find a better return than Scott Wiggins II!

This is a "too much depth" trade, more than anything else. The flip side to this trade, I believe, is that either Rios or Gross are very close to making it to the bigs. I wouldn't want Werth (as much as I think the guy has talent) to take ABs away from either Rios or Gross come July or August. If both Rios and Gross are expected to make the team next year, I would rather that one of them has a 1/2 year experience and be better adjusted to the majors, than to have to break in 2 raw rookies together.

If Hermansen can competently handle 4th OF duties for a year, will most of really care if he doesn't get any ABs, or if he gets dumped next year?

Kind of a pessimistic view, but JP will have more and more of these trades to make as our minor league system gets stronger and stronger.

I guess the Jays could have tried to play some roster shuffling games and tried to pass someone through the waivers, but at the potential cost of getting nothing in return and also stalling others further down in the minors. At least this way, we get some organizational pitching depth.

As for Frasor's age, last year JP stumbled across another "older" prospect with good K rates by the name of A. Lopez - so you never know.

It looks like the deal involving Werth is pretty even to me. Granted Werth is a great athlete but as Jim Acker said above he can't hit, at least not for the OBP the Jays expect. His numbers in AAA last year in 236 AB (64 games) were .237/.285/.441 with 9 homers, 15 walks and 68 strikeouts.

In the few games I saw him in last year he struck out a couple of times on fastballs right down the pipe.

I expect he will do all right with the Dodgers and hit some taters - but was he going to beat out Wells, Rios, and Gross? No. Is he a better 4th OF than Johnson? No. He was probably even below Griffen on the depth chart for next year.

From what I can tell, JP tends to use the 25th spot for filler. He will use it for some guy to burn up major league service time at the minimum and give the flexibility to pick up something on waivers etc. If Hermanson sitcks it won't be for long.

He was used as a starter in the 2003 AFL, but that looks like a situation where they were just scheduling pitchers for a certain amount of IP per appearance (he averaged 3.1 IP per appearance). His AFL numbers: 8 Appearances, 7 GS, 26.2 IP, 21 H, 11 BB, 24 K, 2.03 ERA.

This makes me feel slightly better, but it still looks like JP sold low


Well, we got him for John Bale -- what goes around comes around I guess.

Jason Fraser was on the LA 40 man roster and he is now on the Jays 40 man roster and so we have 38 still on the roster not 37 as noted above.

Still, it seems like we lost on this deal!

Some notes on Frasor: He was, in fact, on LA's 40-man roster, so I assume he'll be on the Jays' as well, leaving only 2 spots open. Jonathan O'Konis ranked Frasor as the #8 prospect in a deep Dodgers farm system and noted that Frasor "throws consistently in the mid 90's and reminds most scouts of Billy Wagner." I'll be taking back the Wiggins comp now...

Frasor really should be in AAA to start the year but is there even room?

There's File, Smith, Cassidy, Maurer, Lukasiewicz, Haines, Frederick, Peterson, Durocher, Ozias, Chulk, Chen, Chacin already fighting for spots in the Syracuse pen.

The only explanation I have for this trade is that the organization liked Hermansen more than Werth as a backup OF. Werth's performance has never been great, and was pretty darn stinky last year.

Now, next question, let's suppose Cat's back acts up in May and he has to go on the 15 day DL. Is Chad Hermansen your starting leftfielder for the duration, or do Rios/Gross get the call? My guess is that JP would choose Hermansen. I'm hoping that the OF stays healthy into June so it doesn't come to that.

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?1385

From what I can tell, JP tends to use the 25th spot for filler. He will use it for some guy to burn up major league service time at the minimum and give the flexibility to pick up something on waivers etc. If Hermanson sitcks it won't be for long


Probably until Rios comes up.

Hermanson does do a credible job in CF, so he's a decent choice as a backup OF. But his hitting (COMN) is pretty awful.

Somewhere between 1998 and 1999, his strike zone judgement completely went off the rails. I wonder if he got impatient waiting for a call to the majors with Pittsburgh?

Anyhow, maybe some tutoring from Barnett will help him come out of the fog. From his minor league record it's obvious he's got some talent, he just never figured out how to use it. I remember reading about him in the STATS minor league notebooks in the late 90's, and back then Sickels thought he was going to be a star.

http://economics.about.com
Other than that he's as good a hitter and a better defender? The thing Werth has over Hermansen is that he can catch, and hasn't stunk at the plate in the big leagues for quite as long. Werth is 18 months younger, but I think the Jays are justified in wanting to get what they can while he's still worth something.

Here's their MLequiv EQAs over the past two seasons in AAA:

Player	2002	2003
Hermsn	.231	.264
Werth	.252	.223

There's all kinds of sample size issues here, particularly with Hermansen's 2002, in which he had 66 PA.

I'm not sure if Werth really is a better hitter than Hermansen. Hermansen is a much better defensive outfielder. He's a bit of a hacker, but maybe the Jays feel they can help him develop some plate discipline.

Frasor looks pretty good, as shown by his 2003 stats (available at the Baseball Cube). He could very well turn out to be the next Donnelly or Weber, which would mean the Jays could save a couple mil by not having to go out and get the next Terry Adams.

It's not a steal, but I don't think it's at all a bad trade. If Werth is going to develop into anything, he needs to play full time, something he won't get with the Jays. Hermansen is better suited to a bench role, and Frasor could be useful in 2005 and 2006.

Cheers,

Mike

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?3186
COMN. Looks like the second coming of Cliff Politte...

jc

given Frasor's consistently stellar peripherals and the fact that he throws in the mid-90's, he's potentially a better closer than anyone on Toronto's major league roster. I really can't see Kerry L. or Justin S. ever assuming the role of full-time closer...

The Billy Wagner comparison is a little odd considering Frasor is right handed but if he really is throwing in the mid-90's then I guess the move isn't so bad. I'm surprised the Dodgers didn't promote him quicker last year after he performed so well at full strength after the TJ surgery.

Josh Boyd commented during the AFL: "Frasor... has caught many scouts' eyes with his impressive arm strength. ...In 50 relief appearances, Frasor rang up 86 in 61 innings, using a 93-95 mph fastball and hard breaking ball."

Wilner just reported JP's post-trade comments:
- according to JP, Werth and Hermansen are pretty much the same player, and Werth was out of options
- Frasor (who impressed the Jays at the AFL) will start (in the pen) at Syracuse, but is not a closer-in-waiting (more like a setup guy)
- but he might be able to help the big club as early as this season
- Pond has made the team, with the last spot going to Hermansen or a 12th arm

This is not unexpected, nor is it really significant. If the decision had been made that Werth was going to be exposed to waivers, and with the Mets likely to have claimed him, getting something for him makes sense. And if L.A. was the only bidder, they didn't have to offer much. My only regret is listing Werth 24th on the preview; I was pretty sure Pond had passed him on the depth chart.

Another possible difference between Hermansen and Werth is how accepting they are of a backup role. I haven't talked much to Werth, but it didn't take long to get the impression that he has a pretty high opinion of himself, considering what he's accomplished. Perhaps he believed he should be starting ahead of Sparky, and that affected his attitude; the last thing you want on your bench is a malcontent. Presumably Hermanson's just grateful for another opportunity. Anyway, if Chad does go north as the 25th man, it won't be for long -- they'll soon need his spot for Justin Miller. Then, if anything happens to Wells, the backup CF would be a 4-hour limo ride away.

The biggest winner in this deal is Werth, who gets a fresh start and a better chance to stay in the majors. The Dodgers don't really need another hole in their batting order, so I don't see how it makes them any better, and Frasor is a long way from helping the Jays.

The Frasor-Wagner comparison is amusing -- do they mean when Billy throws righthanded, or are they just talking about stature?

The Frasor-Wagner comparison is about stature because after that the similarities end. Wagner has been a successful major league pitcher and Frasor has been successful at A and to some degree AA. One of things lacking in the Jays pen is someone with a power fastball so Frasor will go to AAA and get some innings with Petersen and one or both may be up as setup guys later this year or next. Werth's lack of options did play into his trade value.

do they mean when Billy throws righthanded, or are they just talking about stature?

lol, I hope not.
Doesn't seem like either team gave up too much. For some reason I was really hoping that Werth would pan out. With Gross and Rios coming, Werth didn't have much chance with the Jays. Hopefully things will work out for him with the Dodgers.

http://economics.about.com
So am I correct in assuming this will be the opening day roster?

PSN	Player	PSN	Player
C	Cash	SP	Doc
1B	Delgado	SP	Batista
2B	Hudson	SP	Lilly
SS	Woody	SP	Hentgen
3B	Hinske	SP	Towers
RF	Johnson	RP	Lopez
CF	Wells	RP	L-Berg
LF	Cat	RP	Speier
DH	Phelps	RP	Adams
C	Crash	RP	Kersh
UT	Gomez	RP	deLos
UT	Berg		
UT	Pond		
OF	Hermsn

Looks pretty good. I'd rather have Hermansen than the 7th reliever when Miller comes back, but I doubt that's going to happen.

Cheers,

Mike

The other interesting thing about the deal is that it means LA essentially traded Hermansen for Werth. As a Mets fan, I was hoping they could offer something for Werth because right now the RF options are Shane Spencer, Karim Garcia and Roger Cedeno...

LA needs all the help it can get, and I could see Werth being very useful to them. While his upside isn't amazing, it is better than what they have on hand and coming up.

If Hermansen approaches his '03 PCL numbers, the Syracuse OF will be scary.

Well if there's a negative here it's that Werth was kind of misused last season. He does (still) have the potential to be a regular player in the major leagues but he languished early in the season getting at bats maybe once every couple of weeks or so. By the time he was sent down the season was probably a third over and for whatever reason he didn't find his groove in Syracuse but he's obviously a better hitter than that given his past.

I'm not sure there was much point keeping him on as the fourth outfielder now as it would likely be a repeat of last year, especially since you have a similar player in Hermensen. You aren't going to get him to the minors so you might as well trade him. He's still got a fine package of tools so some regular playing time might yield results. Then again a guy that touches 95 and has a breaking ball that can miss bats isn't exactly nothing. With all due respect to Scott Wiggins, he never approached Frasor's strikeout rates in AA.

If anything, I might compare Frasor to a guy like Chulk...and just about the same age too once you take missed time due to TJ into account. He has ability but will be in tough to break a major league roster because his type of skillset is common among affordable major league vets. I personally don't think age matters as much as tools for pitchers anyway...Frasor's probably developed all he's going to develop but what he's got ain't bad. The Jays basically traded one guy who wasn't going to play regularly for another who probably wouldn't have gotten a chance any time soon in LA.

Minor league complex news:
- the Chiefs offense (led by Sequea) beat up on the Red Barons yesterday
- the Fisher Cats are 7-3-3 so far, with Negron (ticketed for Dunedin?) leading the way. The new website, nhfishercats.com, has an up-to-date player listing, pending Dick Scott's decisions

I like the idea of having a Canadian on the team as much as the next guy but how is Simon Pond going to find any at-bats on this team? He plays 1st/3rd but can't platoon because he and the incumbents all hit lefthanded. Delgado doesn't take many days off and is more likely to DH and allow Phelps to play first when he needs a break so I don't see Pond playing first. Does anyone know what his defence at third is like? Can it be good enough to replace Hinske in the later innings? I know he's been put in the outfield this spring but I'd feel safer having Hermanson out there than Pond. If Cash plays most days then Pond won't even be the first pinch-hitting option off the bench.

I'm sorry but I just don't see a role for this guy.

Here's BA's take on the Werth-Frasor trade.

Christian-
I don't think you can PH much with Myers b/c they're only carrying 2 catchers. I don't think Phelps can play there even in an emergency anymore (it always seemed like Werth could if needed).

dp,

If you can't pinch hit for Cash (because doing so would require Myers to come into the game the next inning leaving no backup catcher) then is it fair to assume that Pond's only role will be to pinch hit for Woodward and then give way to Chris Gomez?

http://economics.about.com
I don't think you can PH much with Myers b/c they're only carrying 2 catchers. I don't think Phelps can play there even in an emergency anymore (it always seemed like Werth could if needed).

It sounds like the Jays could use a right-handed pinch hitter who can also catch. I wonder where they'd ever get a guy like that? :)

Cheers,

Mike

I don't think you can PH much with Myers b/c they're only carrying 2 catchers

I think you can. It's not a problem to burn the second catcher, especially late in the game. Teams do it all the time. Dave Berg, IIRC, is the emergency catcher.

Some more interesting articles that caught my eye this morning:
- news on Adams and Hill from The Union-Leader, with some not-so-good news on Harper and Vito
- the next in the line of great Blue Jays backstops (after Q)? Possibly Robinson Diaz, who's impressing at Alley Cat camp
- the Globe&Mail has an article on Rogers' creative accounting
- And last but not least, Christianity Today picks the Jays to win the pennant! There's gotta be a good headline for that story....

I don't see anything wrong with this deal...Toronto loaded with outfielders moves excess talent to an organization loaded with excess middle relief arms, both teams win.

Here's the Baseball Prospectus take on Frasor (somebody tell this kid how to spell his last name normally!)," a poor man's Billy Wagner,a pitcher who can bring the heat, but gets ignored because he's only 5'10"...there's little reason to think he can't contribute at the major league level..."

Basically I look at it this way, J.P. turns waiver wire pick-up's Pond/ Hermanson into an undervalued pitching prospect,which we all know you can't have too many off.

He's not that comparable to Wagner being righthanded and the fact that Wagner's fastball can touch triple digits. There's a pretty significant difference between 91-95 and 97-100. Frasor also reaches that velocity with extra effort in his delivery which opens him up to injury (which is what derailed Politte here).

I think you can. It's not a problem to burn the second catcher, especially late in the game. Teams do it all the time. Dave Berg, IIRC, is the emergency catcher.

Maybe I watch too much NL ball..didn't realize Berg could catch if needed. The Mets with Todd Pratt backing up Mike Piazza used to send up scads of worthless pinch hitters and leave Pratt (OPS+ with the Mets around 105, heavier on OB%) sitting on the bench in almost every game. You'd seem him hit in the 8th or 9th, but that's about it. The Jays have carried 3 catchers for a goos part of Tosca's tenure. I'd bet on Pond being the 1st LHPH and Myers being the 2nd.

Cool, now we have 342 relief pitchers between AAA/ML. I don't get this deal. But, whatever.

http://economics.about.com
Cool, now we have 342 relief pitchers between AAA/ML.

Well, the Jays had 343 outfielders between AAA/ML. :)

You bring up a good point, though: What is the staff at AAA going to look like, even with File and Miller on the DL?

My guess would be that the rotation will be:
Arnold
Bush
Chen
Smith??
McGowan??

And in the pen:
Haines
Frasor
Chulk
Durocher
Maurer

And who else?

Cheers,

Mike

Mike:

Add Lukasiewicz, Ozias, Cassidy and possibly Peterson and File to the list. There are quite a few relievers, but I wouldn't be heartbroken if File or Ozias were let go. When you have depth like the Jays do at OF, I think it is be worth it to roll the dice on someone like Frasor. He might not be Wagner, but he might be a very decent (and very cheap) cog in the bullpen for a couple years. In that case, he'll bring a bigger return than keeping Werth around with Gross/Rios/Griffin around.

I have a feeling this situation will present itself again in a couple years when Griffin's had an extended go-around with Syracuse.

http://economics.about.com
I wonder if the Jays have given any thoughts to turning Cassidy back into a starter. There seems to be more room in the rotation than in the pen.

Lukasiewicz will probably be there as well, but he might be the first to go if there's a numbers crunch. Just a hunch.

I completely forgot about Ozias. I guess he'll start the year in AA. Since Peterson has only pitched in 24 AA games, I wouldn't be surprised if he's in the pen there, then moves up after someone gets hurt or leaves the organization.

Given how common injuries are among young pitchers, I've always believed that you can never have enough depth. While the minor league relief corps looks overstocked right now, a couple of untimely injuries could change that really quickly.

Cheers,

Mike

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1079997008430&call_pageid=969907739730&col=970081600908
I recall a Griffin article COMN (for what its worth) that cites Dick Scott and identifies the Syracuse rotation as:

Dustin McGowan
David Bush
Jason Arnold
Vinnie Chulk
Robert Lee

news on Adams and Hill from The Union-Leader, with some not-so-good news on Harper and Vito.

So Adams is pegged to start the season at AAA?! As the starting SS I assume? Does that move Sequea (who has to be considered part of our plans by now?) to 2B or is there an outside shot that Jorge moves up with the big club early?

I can also see Pond/Hermansen used as a kind of platoon, should any of the regular OF be out for a few days (ie not long enough for a 15-day stint). I've seen enough Dave Berg in RF thank you very much. Likewise Pond could DH if Delgado or Phelps had a little ouchie.

Oh and also, Fine Young Cannibals, She Drives Me Crazy.

http://economics.about.com
Oh and also, Fine Young Cannibals, She Drives Me Crazy.

Yep. Good call.

Rotation:

Dustin McGowan
David Bush
Jason Arnold
Vinnie Chulk
Robert Lee

Interesting. So both McGowan and Bush, each of which only has 14 career AA starts are going to start in AAA? Chulk is going to be used as a starter? (I guess that's not surprising) Where is Chen? Who the heck is Robert E Lee?

Cheers,

Mike

http://economics.about.com
Did Griffin/Scott mean Derek Lee? Is he in the Jays organization?

Cheers,

Mike

The MLB.com audio feed isn't working yet, but according to Yahoo the Jays are hammering Pedro. Hinske and Phelps both took Pedro yard!

Mike, it's the same person. The Jays media guide has him going by Derek (he's probably heard enough Civil War references!)

Tom Wilson was released by the Padres.

Still on former Jays catchers, it looks like Ken Huckaby won't make the Rangers, as Rod Barajas was added to their 40-man.

Vito's elbow soreness is bad news indeed. He had surgery to remove bone chips this off-season, and it looks like this is going to be a long-term problem. Vito's got his age and his injury history to overcome; that's a fair bit for a player who hasn't played above short-season A, but one can always hope.

By the way, Steve Z, everywhere else, Diaz' first name is spelled Robinzon. Not that there's anything wrong with honouring Jackie (or Sugar Ray).

Audio feed working... Miller has shut down the Sox through three. 6-0, going to the bottom of the 3rd. (Phelps' homer in the first was of the grand slam variety.)

Mike, I've seen Diaz' first name spelled both ways, and I'm inclined to think he'simply choosing the Anglo form.

I'm pleased that the Jays got something for Werth. It was obvious that there wasn't going to be enough room for him - even if he squeezed onto the roster this year, he'll soon be pushed aside by one or more of Gross, Rios and Griffin. I'd rather get an AA player for him than lose him to waivers.

And you can never never never have too much pitching.

Frasor and Adam Peterson took similar routes in through the minors last year and I would argue that Frasor outpitched Peterson. Peterson turns 25 in May so the age differnce is not that great considering Frasor missed a chunk of time to injury.

To pose a question. Would you trade Werth for an Adam Peterson type player?

Wilner is on the FAN with Stellick at the moment. The most interesting thing to come out of the conversation so far is that Stellick is reading Moneyball. God help us all.

Patterson yanks Miller with a runner on first, one out, in the 4th. 6-0 Jays still. Miller's confounding the Jays' plans a little! Will he start on a rehab assignment still, or might he be pencilled in the Jays bullpen?

To pose a question. Would you trade Werth for an Adam Peterson type player?


Of course.

Peterson is a way better prospect than Frasor. He's got a bigger build and a better arm.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20040330&content_id=673323&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
Fordin lists Pond as the Jays' 4th OF. COMN. Combined with JP's comment that the Jays are thinking of carrying 12 pitchers, it does seem possible that the Jays may head north with Pond as the 4th OF.
If so, bad move.

http://bluejayscheerclub.com
Is this game on anywhere else besides bluejays.com?

I presume Miller was on a strict count. He's not pitching like someone who needs a long rehab assignment, but on the other hand, with all those off days the first couple of weeks, I don't see how they can find enough work for eight relievers.

Pond won't be coming into games for defensive purposes at any position; he'll probably pinch-hit more than anything. If the Jays are down by a run late in a game, Pond could bat for Woodward and Myers for Cash, with Gomez taking over at SS. If Delgado has to take a day off, Phelps can play 1B and Pond is the DH. I remain concerned that Tosca might sit Phelps in favour of Pond against some RH starters. I'm wondering whether Simon hits lefties better than Cat; that might be another opportunity for him to get some AB and an occasional start in LF. I really don't think they need another OF unless someone gets banged up.

JKCL, you're entitled to your opinion, but thank goodness you're not running the ballclub.

JKCL, why so high on Werth? his track record isn't exactly stellar above double-A. Reed Johnson is merely a stop-gap; if he struggles, the Jays can just call up a right fielder who posted a .380 OBP at Syracuse last year (if that's not major league-ready, I don't know what is)...sure, you'd rather give ABs to Werth than to Johnson, but I'll take Gross over either of them.

Well I think the Jays were in a position to have to pretty much give Werth away. There were four choices with Werth:

1. Send him down and lose him on waivers for nothing
2. Trade him and get something
3. Let him ride the bench as the fourth outfielder
4. Play him ahead of a guy who has earned a regular position

Now depending on if you believe Bill James or not, platoon splits do not exist...if you give a player enough at bats against both lefthanded and righthanded pitching his hitting will eventually be about equal (switch hitters excepted of course). I personally find that hard to accept as a general rule but I do think it's entirely possible that Reed's platoon split last year was a fluke. Woodward's split for instance shows he's much better against righties than lefties. When you deal with a small sample you can see some weird results.

I don't think Reed is necessarily a guy you want leading off for you full time in the long term but he certainly earned his position much more so than Werth. And I think the Jays are building an organization where players have to earn things and not rely on tools and pedigree to see them awarded jobs. Hence the inclusion of Simon Pond on the 40 man roster and now the major league roster.

If this was a team that didn't have viable depth in the outfield and better prospects coming up then there wouldn't be much excuse for losing Werth. Personally, I would sooner have traded him for a bat at a different position where the Jays lacked depth rather than a minor league reliever. I do agree that the deal has the potential to look really bad for the Jays if Jayson becomes a decent player but he was out of options and at some point they had to turn the page on him.

Coach, perhaps the Jays are worried about Hentgen, if his velocity is in the low 80s, and are considering keeping extra arms for him & Lily should they run into trouble and can't get out of the 3rd or 4th. Lily just hasn't been able to get as many innings to build up arm strength in comparison to the other starters.

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Second, it appears that Reed Johnson is cemented into the leadoff spot where he can bring an obp that will be closer to .300 than .350 vs. righthanders to the top of the order. Reed can't hit major league righthanded pitching.

I know there's sample size issues, but I wouldn't call a career .279/.348/.383 vs. righties "can't hit major league righthanded pitching". In the long run, both Johnson and Cat are placeholders for the Jays AAA outfield depth.

Cat has huge platoon splits. I'd expect to see Pond get some starts in left against tough lefties, and for Pond to pinch hit for Cat late in games.

Cheers,

Mike

Hinske goes yard for the second time this game in the 6th inning, this time off Mike Timlin. Jays lead the game 10-4 going as they bat in the bottom of the 7th. Boston ended up scoring a run in the 4th inning after Miller left a man aboard with one out. In the 5th Dave McCarty hit his 7th homerun of the spring off Lukasiewicz as the Sox counted three more runs.

Woodward had a two-run single, and Hinske has hit a homer, his second of the game, off Timlin, as the Jays continue to trounce the BoSox. It's now 10-4 in the 8th.

For what it's worth I think JKCL's point about Johnson v. Werth is at least worth asking. I still see the broad outline of the objectives of this '04 season as figuring out who will be on the next Jays playoff team in '05 and '06. With that in mind, I'm not sure that the choice of Werth or Johnson was that clearcut. Werth is approximately 2.5 years younger than Johnson. Defensively they are similar although I think Werth has the better arm. Offensively their minor league numbers are very similar although Werth put up his numbers at substantially younger ages and until AAA while playing catcher. At 27 and with his minor league record, I believe Johnson played last year at or slightly above what he can deliver at the major league level. I'm not sure we know what Werth's major league ability is yet but my feeling is that it is at least what Johnson's is. Long term there is only one roster spot for a 4th outfielder/ platoon partner for Gross and I'm not sure the Jays made the right choice. I'm sure that they made the choice on the basis that Johnson is the better player right now. Fair enough, but I think with a longer term perspective I might have seen what Johnson could bring by way of trade value and tried Werth for most of this season.

Platoon splits exist - it's one of the few sabrmetric propositions that are undeniable. There's been some evidence that players don't differ significantly as to the size of their platoon advantage - about an 8% edge in OPS for righthanded batters (not sure what the natural split for lefthanded batters is). Bill James wrote that platoon differentials exist and are virtually universal (almost all hitters will hit better against opposite handed pitching given enough trials).

I've been a fan of Werth's and my reaction wasn't too different from JKCL. Between looking like a player - tall, strong arm, athletic, good pop in the bat - and being in the BP Top 40 prospects list last year, I figured he was sure to be a valuable contributor. Of course, not everyone pans out.

Having just looked through his minor league numbers, they weren't anything extraordinary so I think the scout in me overrides the analyst in me with regards to Werth (both of which are scary, but the scout in me is really scary).

I'm sure that they made the choice on the basis that Johnson is the better player right now. Fair enough, but I think with a longer term perspective I might have seen what Johnson could bring by way of trade value and tried Werth for most of this season.

I wouldn't assume that, in fact I would assume the long term perspective is what is being considered.

I wonder if anyone remembers my all to brief moment here...

Anyways just a question/comment and it may be totally stupid but i'll ask anyways. I'm sure it was speculated earlier in this thread but i'm too lazy to read the whole thing.

With the trade of Werth does this make it look more possible for Delgado to stay on after this season? If not who would be the 1B for the Jays in the next few yrs? My comment is this, i'm happy for Werth. I think there wasn't really much room for him here and he'll definately get a lot of playing time. I think he'll perform well in Dodger Blue as well.

I have always felt that players with Werth's offensive profile (very high K rate, medium range power, good but not terrific speed, in the minors) were unlikely to succeed in the majors. It's hard to sustain the batting average with this profile, and the secondary skills are just not good enough. Johnson's profile (many fewer Ks and somewhat less power) is from my recollection much more likely to translate well to a major league career. I don't have the studies to show this is true, however.

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Offensively their minor league numbers are very similar although Werth put up his numbers at substantially younger ages and until AAA while playing catcher.

How do you figure? Jayson Werth is a career .265 hitter in the minors, Reed Johnson is a career .291 hitter. Werth hits for more power, but Johnson is much better at making contact. Johnson is also much better at getting hit by pitches. :)

With the trade of Werth does this make it look more possible for Delgado to stay on after this season? If not who would be the 1B for the Jays in the next few yrs?

Phelps. I can't imagine Werth was ever in their 1B plans. He simply doesn't hit enough. So this move won't impact their Delgado decision at all.

Cheers,

Mike

I don’t buy the argument that Werth is a better player than Johnson. At some point you have to ignore the upside and a player's tools and ask “What am I getting now?” Johnson may have played over his head last year but he did it. I can’t believe that a whole season can be a fluke. Werth didn’t improve in AAA last year. Here are the stats for spring training.

SLG AVE
R Johnson .351 .281
J Werth .483 .207

It may be that Werth does well in LA but he wouldn't have done it as a 4th outfielder in Toronto and he has never deserved to bump Johnson out of his starting role.

It's academic really as Johnson, Catalanato(sp?) and Werth(especially now!) are unlikely to be playing a big roll for the Jays 2 years from now.

Cat has huge platoon splits. I'd expect to see Pond get some starts in left against tough lefties, and for Pond to pinch hit for Cat late in games.


Quoi?

Pond is LHB as well. Are you sure he'd be any better than Cat against LHP?

When it comes to RHB pinch hitting in 2004, Jays fans will have to settle for the Punch and Judy stylings of Dave Berg and Chris Gomez.

Having written my comment above. Does anyone envision Catalnato moving on to fill Berg's role? I think the outfield is too crowded but a utility infielder? Of course, other teams might want to sign a cheap, talented player too. :)

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Pond is LHB as well. Are you sure he'd be any better than Cat against LHP?

I can't imagine he'd be any worse. Cat hit .176/.250/.294 off of lefties last year, and .236/.323/.343 over the last 3.

A Reed Johnson/Cat platoon in left would be pretty sweet, though it's still probably a ways off.

Cheers,

Mike

Mike M - here's a case of batting averages being deceiving. Johnson has never walked much and his career minor league OBP is in the .380 range. Werth, until last year, had excellent walk rates, and as a consequence, his career minor league OBP is just shy of .370. If anything, Johnson showed slightly more power in the low minors but in most cases he was a full 3 years older than Werth at equivalent stops. Frankly, there's nothing in Johnson's minor league numbers to suggest that he will ever walk at an acceptable level for a leadoff man.

Does anyone envision Catalnato moving on to fill Berg's role?

Personally no, not really. Cat was a pretty terrible defensive infielder two years ago and I don't think the time off will help that any. I think we'll see the utility roles filled by some combination of Sequea, Pond, Woodward, veteran signings. If Delgado doesn't come back I could see Cat platooning at 1B/DH/OF and using the extra money on SS/pitching

Nigel, does it really matter if Reed doesn't walk a whole lot if he keeps posting a good OBP? He consistently draws free passes by getting HBP and he will almost certainly post a higher batting average. It doesn't matter how you get on base, it's how often.

http://me.woot.net
Sad news about Tom Wilson. I know that we Jays fans are all pulling for him; I hope he catches on somewhere before long.

Ricciardi might not be done yet. From the CP article:

The Blue Jays are still looking at other moves. One of them is bringing back catcher Tom Wilson, who they lost on waivers to San Diego during the off-season and was released by the Padres. "We have a couple of other things we're trying to address," said Ricciardi. "Today we're done dealing."

Also from that article:
Miller is probably bound for the disabled list to avoid waivers, thus allowing the Blue Jays to delay a decision on him.
"I think at this point, the way he's pitched, he's not ready to help us at the major-league level," said Ricciardi.

A little bit of a surprising comment considering the way Miller has pitched thus far.

I think that comment came before Miller's 3 1/3 innings without giving up an ER against Boston today.

You always manage to find good articles Steve. You're going to give Mike Moffatt a run for his money.

Here's a neat snippet from the above article:

"I think they're the same player," Ricciardi said of the two. ``Werth probably throws a bit better and Hermansen probably hits a bit better. We don't need two of those guys."

To tell you the truth, I didn't really check out Hermansen's stats before today. A while ago, I saw the words "slick fielding" and "minor league contract" together and assumed that the Jays had just signed Chris Singleton's ugly half-brother. It seems that Hermy has put together quite a few seasons of solid baseball in the high minors.

Can anyone (maybe this is too much of a project) provide a complete list of who has been added to the organization and who has left the organization since October 2003 other than the major league additions and subtractions? - or merely provide a link to such info?

I'd really appreciate it

In fairness to Moffatt, I'm just providing some of the more peripheral articles. And I could never deal with the pressure of coming up with obscure 80s music lyrics every single day! Thanks for the nice words though, Brent.

http://economics.about.com
You're going to give Mike Moffatt a run for his money.

Unless you're talking about fashion sense, that's pretty much as damning with faint praise as you can get. :)

Steve Z: I haven't mentioned it, but I really appreciate all the leg work you do in finding those articles. I really enjoy reading them, and they're another reason why the Batter's Box has become the place to go for Jays news. Thanks Steve!

Cheers,

Mike

Hmm.. let's see. I think this is everybody Geoff. (not including major leaguers). All players were free agents except where indicated.

IN
RHP's Jayson Durocher, Josue Matos, Juan Campos, Todd Ozias, Talley Haines (rule 5)

LHP's Bruce Chen, David Maurer, Robert/Derek Lee, Mark Lukasiewicz, Chi-Hung Cheng

OF's Chad Hermansen, Noah Hall, Jeff Guiel

OUT
RHP's Brian Bowles, Juan Pena, Tanyon Sturtze, Evan Thomas, Corey Thurman, Pable Vega, Sandy Nin (trade), Mark Comolli (rule 5), Pete Bauer (rule 5),

LHP's Diegomar Markwell, Scott Wiggins, Dave Gassner (trade), Ryan Costello (rule 5), Eric Stephenson (rule 5/retired)

C Carlos Amparo

IF's Jimmy Alvarez, Gary Burnham, Kelvin Felix, Francisco Herrera, Tony Zuniga, Kurt Keene (rule 5)

OF's Bruce Aven, Mike Colangelo, Anthony Sanders, DeWayne Wise

Ryan 01 - I agree with your point that it doesn't matter how a high OBP is comprised (leaving aside the slight benefit of a hit over a walk). My points about Johnson were twofold: a) his minor league numbers, in my opinion, are no better (and arguably are worse) than Werth's taking into account age and the impact on offense that arise from the physical demands of playing catcher; and b) throughout the minor leagues and major leagues his OBP has been largely the result of high batting averages and some HBP. Basically, he needs to be at or near .300 with his batting average to post an acceptable OPB. He may be able to do that long term, having watched him, I'm just not sure of that.

Just to comment on the Rule 5 guys we lost, they were taken in the minor league portion of the draft and they won't be offered back and don't have to be on the other team's 40 man roster.

Qui-Lo and Terry "R" Adams struggle mightily again today (at least as far as it looks in the box score), especially the former. Is he overworked?

Overall, the return for Werth seems about right. He hasn't cemented his status as a premium prospect over the past year, and never really put together the plate discipline and power over long stretches.
As for Frasor, I never heard of him before today and a quick glance at his minor league history seems decent enough. I've never seen Frasor spelt that way, either...so that's neat. One thing that strikes me about his potential usefulness in the future pen is his repertoire - that, 1) not too many of the bullpen hopefuls for next year hump it up to around 95, so that's useful (Peterson if he progresses), and 2) he's a fastball-curve guy, and most of the current Jays in-house are fastball-slider guys, so he brings a different look. For 2005, and even the tail end of 2004, the 'pen could change *alot*, so having a number of options (and he makes it at least one more) in the system will only open up options. And it seems more like a trade for next year - need more options for the pen, don't need all the OF's.

Is it just me or does A.lopez recent game stats worry you. The last few outings he has pitched does not look encouraging for a projected closer. Or am I worrying about nothing?

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20040330&content_id=673323&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
It's official...

Jays get righty Frasor for Werth - COMN

Wilner mentioned today that Kerry L. will probably start the season as the closer until Lopez's killer slider reappears... although JP and Co. said that nothing was wrong with his slider or anything else mechanically they never mentioned why he was having problems.

I hope that there's nothing wrong with Jesse Harper's shoulder - I know young pitcher's get hurt all the time, but I've followed Harper closely and hope he does well. Shoulder injuries are never good news.

Jason Frasor and Trever Miller need to do a vowel swap.

The Werth v Johnson debate is an interesting one...and it brings up a point that is sometimes (at least to my knowledge)lost in projecting players based on performance trends in the context of age/league. Sometimes the context for trends in the numbers is lost, just by virtue of how numbers themselves don't account for time or opportunity lost. In this case, I'm talking about Reed Johnson's 2002 season when his star lost some of its lustre...coming off an excellent 2001 season, Johnson was hampered by injury, which hampered his opportunity to play - factor in the level jump and his numbers took a hit. When he got healthy (tail end of 2002, AAA 2003, ML 2003) his performance ended up being more like what it has been the rest of his career, when accounting for the *normal* bumps players experience when they jump to the big leagues.
The other thing that gets lost in the context of age/league, is what players do when they get their opportunity depsite their age in their league. Again, using Reed Johnson as an example, he was drafted in the middle rounds out of college, and was 22 his first year. He played well at every level IIRC, and was promoted consistently and maintained his performance each step of the way, except when injured. The fact that he was 22 when drafted, for analysis sake, can often be overlooked when comparing him to a high school draftee (Werth) who *had the opportunity* to succeed at a younger age whereas Reed did not - he was at school. There's also an opportunity bias that later picks have to overcome that needs to be accounted for....my point here is that we can easily get caught up comparing apples and oranges, and it's not really fair without considering these contexts. I mean, you can make the case that he was picked later for good reason, etc, but there are lots of reasons that might explain that, he might just be a gem. Sorry if this is a little vague or *rant-like*, but after all, I'm not very smart.
For the sabermetricians out there, is a there some accepted formula/factor that is taken into account for "prospect rankings" which balances a players disadvantage because of age or opportunity that a player experiences - that maybe adjusts based on his performance and rate of promotion?

"For the sabermetricians out there, is a there some accepted formula/factor that is taken into account for "prospect rankings" which balances a players disadvantage because of age or opportunity that a player experiences - that maybe adjusts based on his performance and rate of promotion?"

No there isn't. But there's been probably some research done into college v high school players. I read somewhere that it takes college position players (who will eventually reach a comparable peak) about 4 years of pro experience to catch up with high school players.

That's why it can be misleading to compare a high school draftee's performance for age to a college player's. A better way would be college against college and high school against high-school.

I honestly don't think Lopez will be the closer to start the season. I had concerns about him being overused last year and then he went and pitched winter ball and has struggled quite a bit during the spring. I'm hoping it's because he's overthrowing in trying to make the club and not because he's nursing a sore elbow or shoulder.

On the flipside, Cliff Politte who was non-tendered after an injury riddled season has had an excellent spring. 7 innings, no runs, 4 hits, 1 walk, 10 k. I did say at the time that I did not understand the decision not to bring Politte back for around the same salary as he clearly suffered from an injury mid-season and was more like his 2002 self early and late in the year. Each of Speier, Ligtenberg, and Adams are making about twice what Politte made last year and I don't know that you could argue that they're better pitchers. I hope this doesn't turn into another example of the Jays letting go of a pitcher that would have helped them. Moreover it may be the second time that Kenny Williams benefits from the Jays undervaluing one of their own properties.

I have to say I enjoyed reading this discussion. I line up with those that think this was a poor trade. In my opinion, this is a late Christmas present from JP to his old pal who is now in LA. I don't think that Werth will be a star, but LA is not blessed with OF talent - at the major league or minor league level. He's a cheap addition that can bridge their gap, and if he flames out, nothing is lost. Frasor's stats are unimpressive. A 1.30 WHIP for a 26 year old closer at AA? The track-record for minor league closers turning into major league closers is bad enough, and this guy doesn't look like an exception.

I'm happy for Werth though. Perhaps he'll get a decent chance to show us what he's got.

I have to say I enjoyed reading this discussion. I line up with those that think this was a poor trade. In my opinion, this is a late Christmas present from JP to his old pal who is now in LA. I don't think that Werth will be a star, but LA is not blessed with OF talent - at the major league or minor league level. He's a cheap addition that can bridge their gap, and if he flames out, nothing is lost. Frasor's stats are unimpressive. A 1.30 WHIP for a 26 year old closer at AA? The track-record for minor league closers turning into major league closers is bad enough, and this guy doesn't look like an exception.


I dont think you realize the bind Jays management found themselves in. Werth had about as much value to the Jays as Chad Hermansen, who was signed for _free_ as a minor league free agent.

Even though Werth is only 24, he was coming off an awful year in AAA, and is viewed by most teams as a 4th outfielder and defensive replacement. Add in the fact that he's out of options and there was no room for him on the Jays roster, and you can see how his trade value got to be so low.

There was no way the Dodgers were going to give up a blue chip prospect for him.

The alternatives were:

- keeping Werth and cutting/trading Hermansen, who I'm guessing garnered even less interest on the trade market than Werth
- keeping both Werth and Hermansen and demoting Pond, who after a great year in 2003, just had a fantastic spring

The Jays clearly like Pond's bat better than Werth's glove (and unfulfilled offensive potential). I can see why people were disappointed in the trade, but Werth's value was dropping rapidly as we headed towards opening day. In retrospect, the time to deal him was after his breakthrough season in 2002. However, back then, it was arguable that Werth was a _better_ prospect than Gross and Rios, so it's completely understandable why the Jays hung on to him.

Well, this completely contradicts what I said about Werth yesterday (when I said I wouldn't trade him for Duchscherer), but I've reconsidered my stance on him, and I don't think this was a bad deal.

I think Mike Green's point is a good one. Guys with modest power and high strikeout rates who hit .250 in AAA ball don't strike me as good bets. (See Borchard, Joe.)

Moreover, Werth's BB and K numbers have just been getting worse and worse ever year.

Year   AB  BB    K  BB/PA   K/PA
2000  359  64   65  0.151  0.154
2001  439  80  112  0.154  0.216
2002  489  73  136  0.130  0.242
2003  346  21  104  0.057  0.283

I think it's possible that Werth will put it all together and hit .260/.350/.450 over the next six years. I also think it's much more likely that he will never be a useful major league player.

I don't care that Jay Frasor is 26. He's a relief prospect; we're not debating upside here. What we are talking about is a guy who put up the following line in A/AA ball last year: 61 IP, 2 HR, 18 BB, 86 K. If Adam Peterson had done that, the hype would be insufferable. Furthermore, Frasor's not just a bunch of numbers on a page; BA is rather high on him.

Barring injury, I think Frasor will be a useful middle reliever for several years, and I don't think the Jays will miss Werth.

No really new points in this comment, but I wanted to go on the record.

The Jays were in no way "forced" to trade Werth. Hermansen signed a minor league deal and can be returned to the minors without risk of losing him until June 1. The Jays easily could have kept Werth for a couple of months and given him an actual chance to prove himself. If he hit like he is capable of doing when healthy then his value goes up significantly. If he failed then there's a very good chance he makes it through waivers and he gets a chance to work things out in the minors. That's the course of action that I expected, and a few other Jays fans suggested well before the trade as we all knew he had very little value at this point.

I'm willing to give Frasor the benefit of the doubt until we see a little more of him but I don't quite feel like I understand the reasoning behind this move (other than maybe helping out DePodesta) like I usually do with Ricciardi's moves.

I think Mike Green's point is a good one. Guys with modest power and high strikeout rates who hit .250 in AAA ball don't strike me as good bets. (See Borchard, Joe.)


As a Joe Borchard owner in my roto league, I sincerely hope he manages to figure out how to hit :)


Furthermore, Frasor's not just a bunch of numbers on a page; BA is rather high on him


Not _too_ high. Frasor did not manage to crack the top 30 prospects in the BA report on the Dodgers.


The Jays were in no way "forced" to trade Werth. Hermansen signed a minor league deal and can be returned to the minors without risk of losing him until June 1.


Ryan, thanks for that little nugget of info, I wasn't sure how minor league contracts work. Is there a reference guide you can refer me to? I was labouring under the misapprehension that Hermansen was entitled to reject the assignment and go seek employment elsewhere if the Jays tried to send him down.

Breaking News: The Queen apparently supports the Jays, cause according to those headline writers from mlb.com BONDis close to making the team. We get England's best player.

BTW, bad guys are pushing strongly to get to .500 leading 8-1 after 5. Jeter started playing ball the Sparky way.

"No there isn't. But there's been probably some research done into college v high school players. I read somewhere that it takes college position players (who will eventually reach a comparable peak) about 4 years of pro experience to catch up with high school players."
Robert, do you mean the other way around? If not, could you explain what you mean?
I think there is probably a pretty reasonable way to generate an equivalency for grading college trained v HS trained pro prospects that would level the playing field - I just am not sure what it is. Seems to me that conventional wisdom is: a HS guy is progressing well if he advances a level a year and playing average to above average, whereas a College guy needs to perform very well at one level and average at the next level within the one year to be progressing as well. The key seems to be (as you suggest) comparing HS v HS, and college v college, but if you can also consider that in the context of 1) their performance/progression within their pro experience, 2) their opportunity, and 3) the normalcy of learning/performance curves, then you're onto something that can make an equivalency between the two - and this could better reflect how good players are compared to their peers, regardless of where they come from.
Anyways, thanks for replying - looking over my earlier post it was pretty poorly worded.

Most good prospects out of high-school, when they are 21, are already in the high minors. College players are usually getting their feet wet in short-season A. In this sense, the college players are behind their age peers from high school.