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USA Today ran a story today showing the total salary obligations that each team has from 2005 - 2010. Once you get past all of the sensationalistic Seligian headlines (Baseball has $2.8 BILLION in debt!!) it's really interesting to look at.


USA Today did this same study in 2001. At that time there were $3.7 billion in future salary commitments. Today the total commitments are 24% lower.

"Many people, including the commissioner, are very concerned about the level of debt," Selig said Monday. "We now have rules in our labor agreement that deal with that."

It's nice to see that Selig refers to himself in the third person.

Reading the headline and article makes me think that Hal Bodley gets a portion of MLB's slush fund that Selig distributes. He does a nice job of pushing Selig's agenda.

Anyway, I was surprised to see some of the findings given all the dire talk you hear about baseball.

Obviously, the Yankees leading the way is no surprise with obligations of over $587 million from 2005-2010, including today's signing of Mariano Rivera.

But if you take the Yankees out of the equation, who account for 20% of those obligations, no one team is really in that bad of shape going forward. After taking out the Yankees, who Gammons spectulated will have $300 million in revenues this year, there's approximately $76 million in obligations per team. But that's over a 6 year period, so it's about $13 million/year per team, hardly an extraordinary sum.

Those obligations aren't evenly distributed however - about 70% of the obligations are in the next 2 seasons. However, looking at each team individuallly there's room for each team to add payroll over their commitments in 2005 - only the Yankees and Red Sox exceed $60 million in obligations in 2005.

In 2006 the picture clears up even more. Only 5 teams have obligations in excess of just $40 million.

Given that baseball's revenues are rising, new revenue sources are being tapped into all the time, and the current free agent climate, baseball's financial condition is in fine shape and possibly as good as ever.

But I suppose it's more fun to cry poverty and try to extract taxpayer dollars for personal benefit.

Some other tidbits:

* YOUR Toronto Blue Jays average $25 million in commitments over the next 3 years, and nothing beyond 2007.

* The Expos only have $307,500 committed beyond this season. Bonus points if you figure out who it is.

* The Dodgers have no obligations beyond 2005. It'll be interesting to see how DePo uses it.
Future Team Salary Obligations | 30 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Craig S. - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 09:21 PM EST (#75435) #
I'm glad to see that the Jays aren't heavily committed over the next several years. While future debts may not be a problem for the large-market teams, it could be tough if the Jays were having to shell out a ton of cash to a select few well into the future.

I agree about the tone of the article - even the title suggests flashing danger signs for the sport. Along with Selig's third-person referral, I also enjoyed the comment about the A's. To me, the line about Oakland that reads, "Even financially conservative franchises are getting in the fray" sounded like, "Even the A's are falling prey to this madness." Then again, the USA Today should never be counted on for good baseball analysis.

That Yankees number seems huge, although spreading it out over 6 years makes it seem a lot better, especially with their revenues.
_Young - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 09:30 PM EST (#75436) #
$307,500?

I'm confused, I remember the Expos signed Carl Everett to a 2 year deal for 7 million this offseason. Is the second year not guaranteed in that deal?
_Rob - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 09:34 PM EST (#75437) #
When did Helton sign his contract? Signed through 2011? Wow.
Gitz - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 09:39 PM EST (#75438) #
Then again, the USA Today should never be counted on for good baseball analysis.

The words "good" and "analysis" do not belong anywhere near the words USA Today unless they're used like so: "It is good analysis to say that the USA Today is only slightly more useful than the three leftover peas I threw away from last night's dinner."
Gitz - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 09:42 PM EST (#75439) #
Incidentally ... over at Hardball Times, Matthew Namee's been having a lively discussion with himself over Rivera's HOF chances. Quick Bauxite poll: Will Rivera make the HOF? Should he make it?

My answers: maybe and yes.
_Craig S. - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 09:58 PM EST (#75440) #
When did Helton sign his contract? Signed through 2011? Wow.

He signed a contract back in 2001 that pays him about $141m over 9 years, and it kicked in starting last season. Helton can void it after 2007, but I can't imagine him choosing to do that when he's 34, playing in the best hitter's park in baseball, with his career likely on a downward slide.
_Andrew Edwards - Tuesday, March 23 2004 @ 10:10 PM EST (#75441) #
Yeah, forget A-Rod and Manny Ramirez. Helton might be the biggest winner of the peak in pricing of free agents.

At least, the biggest winner never to pitch for the Dodgers.
Craig B - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 09:23 AM EST (#75442) #
Yes and yes on Rivera. He should go in, and he will go in.

He has been absolutely as good as it is reasonably possible to be in his role. It's not Rivera's fault that his managers don't leverage him more appropriately. He's a marvelous pitcher, I've loved watching him in the playoffs these many years (even though pitching for the hated, hated, Yankees).

And I think he scuffs the ball, too.
_Jurgen - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 10:10 AM EST (#75443) #
Helton's contract is ridiculous. It's one thing to pay Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez an insane amount of money for a ridiculously long amount of time. But Helton just isn't that good. As much as we like to bash Ash, at least he only signed Delgado for four years.

I think there's a chance he'll void it if the market rebounds and he decides he wants to play for a contender. Because it aint happening in Colorado anytime sooon.

Rivera will go in, and deserves to. Eck opened the door for the modern closer, and Rivera has been as dominant in the role as anybody this side of Gagne. Those postseason numbers are unwordly.
Pistol - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 10:28 AM EST (#75444) #
I think there's a chance he'll void it if the market rebounds and he decides he wants to play for a contender. Because it aint happening in Colorado anytime sooon.

I believe after 2005 the only obligation the Rockies have is Helton's contract at about $16-$17 million/year. Besides bad management, there's no reason they should be able to compete.
Pistol - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 10:29 AM EST (#75445) #
That is, no reason they SHOULDN'T be able to compete.
Craig B - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 10:41 AM EST (#75446) #
It's one thing to pay Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez an insane amount of money for a ridiculously long amount of time. But Helton just isn't that good.

Helton is a better player than Manny Ramirez. A *much* better player than Manny Ramirez.

WARP3, past four years - Helton 44.8, Ramirez 33.6

Past two years - Helton 22.9, Ramirez 17.3

Last year - Helton 12.8, Ramirez 9.1

WARP3 (numbers courtesy of Baseball Prospectus) is a neasure of overall value.

Batting Runs Above Replacement, past four years - Helton 290, Ramirez 303.

Last year - Helton 79, Ramirez 82.

The two are dead even as hitters (I'll take Helton, for whom conventional park factors unfairly diminish his abilities due to the well-established "Coors Effect") and Helton is a Gold Glove first baseman, while Ramirez is an abominable left fielder.

People just do not understand park factors. Yes, Coors Field is an extreme hitter's park. But that does not mean that Colorado hitters don't have value. Helton is a tremendous hitter and one of the best players in major-league baseball, and almost no one recognizes it because they misunderstand park effects.

The "Coors Effect" that I referenced above refers to the difficulties that Colorado hitters (hitters in particular) have in adjusting from hoem to road. Colorado's hitters consistently underperform their expected numbers in road games as a result.
Craig B - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 11:28 AM EST (#75447) #
Well, that comment was a little strongly worded. It's not that Jurgen or anyone else doesn't understand park effects, it's just that it's easy to ascribe to park effects what is really ability.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 12:09 PM EST (#75448) #
I think that Rivera should go in and will go in for somewhat different reasons than others. His regular season performance has been great, but he has not really been as dominant as Eck was in his prime. It'd be a marginal call if we were speaking about regular season performance (he's pitched a total of 640 innings so far in his career).

On the other hand, during his career, the Yankees season has been judged on their post-season performance. For that reason, he has been used much less often during the regular season over his career. His performance during the post-season is amazing (16-5, 30 saves, 0.75 ERA in 96 innings, 60 hits allowed, 12 walks, 77 Ks). In the late 90s-early 00s context, these are otherworldly numbers.

As a result of his post-season performance, Rivera can and should go in on the first ballot.
Joe - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 12:26 PM EST (#75449) #
http://www.birdsonthebat.com
If Mariano Rivera pitches 69 innings per season (his average for the last three years) for the next three years before retiring, he'll finish with less than 850 career innings pitched.

I don't care how good you are, your "clutchness" in the postseason, or how you are "misused." Even nowadays, when starters are babied more than ever before, pitchers exceed that total in only 3-4 years.

The guy has had three seasons worth of innings spread over nine seasons worth of appearances (4 and twelve, respectively, if he pitches 200 innings over the next three years).

Let's just enshrine out best pinch hitters, too. I mean, they excel in limited playing time, as well.

While we're at it, we can enshrine Trevor Hoffman (who shares a 953 Similarity Score through abe 35). And Jeff Montgomery (947), Dan Quixenberry (938), Tom Henke, Troy Percival, Robb Nen, and Rod Beck. Maybe John Wetteland, too.

He's a failed starter who was lucky enough to suck at the end of the 20th century after La Russa "created" a "role" where a guy can come in, throw his best stuff for an inning or two, and watch the saves roll in.

Does Rivera deserve recognition for his accomplishments? Sure. Five All-Star games. Two top-three finishes in Cy Young voting. And, most importantly, the highest-paid closer for three years running, and likely for the next three as well.

But the Hall of Fame? That's kind of overstating the importance of a guy who's pitched over 81 innings only once in his entire career.

Or, are we enshrining him for his postseason performance? Maybe we should do the same for Willie Mays Aikens and Doc Brown (1200+ career postseason OPS). We need to be careful not to enshrine McGwire, who has only a career 674 postseason OPS. And we need to remove Willie Mays (660 career postseason OPS), Ted Williams (533 postseason OPS), Ty Cobb (648 OPS), Stan Musial (742 OPS), Joe DiMaggio (757 World Series OPS)
Craig B - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 12:35 PM EST (#75450) #
Let's just enshrine out best pinch hitters, too. I mean, they excel in limited playing time, as well.

Is there any pinch hitter out there who hits as well as Rivera pitches? Even remotely as well? That argument is specious.

Your argument that "we're enshrining him for his postseason performance" is even more so. You can take postseason performance - and it's an incredible and unique postseason career - into account without making it everything or nothing.

Do I think that Rivera is one of the best players of his time? Yes, I do. Do I think he's one of the greatest players of his time? Yes, I do. Do I think he has been one of the most valuable players of his time? No, categorically not, for exactly the reasons you state. Those three questions are *not* the same question.
Joe - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 02:49 PM EST (#75451) #
Not sure how you are drawing the line between great and valuable. I mean, how great can a player be if he's not terribly valuable? And how can anyone argue in favor of enshrining someone who isn't "one of the most valuable players of his time?"
Coach - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 02:55 PM EST (#75452) #
Joe, maybe we disagree on the value of a true stopper. Do you think Goose Gossage belongs in the HoF? I certainly do, and assuming Rivera adds a couple more great seasons to his career, he'd get my vote, if I had one. Just because the pattern of use has changed doesn't mean they weren't the most dominant relievers of their time.

"Closer," as in ninth-inning specialist, may be a relatively new position, but the very best (not that list of "very good" comps)deserve to be honoured for their excellence. In the case of Rivera, his postseason brilliance adds to his qualifications -- and as Mike Green says, makes him first-ballot worthy -- but it's the eight straight regular seasons at this level that make his case, and we have no reason to believe it won't be 10, 12 or even more great years before he's done.
Craig B - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 03:06 PM EST (#75453) #
how can anyone argue in favor of enshrining someone who isn't "one of the most valuable players of his time?"

Because he's a great pitcher. Have you never seen the guy pitch? Or even seen his statistics? He's amazing.

He is a very valuable player, by the way... just not one of the most valuable.
Coach - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 03:13 PM EST (#75454) #
In today's ATM, Lee Sinins just happened to compile the top ten pitchers by RSAA since 1997; I'm not sure why he didn't include Mariano's amazing '96 as a setup man (130 K in -- ahem -- 107.2 IP) which helps boost his career RSAA to 153.

1 Pedro Martinez 389
2 Randy Johnson 331
3 Greg Maddux 242
4 Curt Schilling 236
5 Kevin Brown 204
6 Roger Clemens 182
7 Mike Mussina 169
8 Tom Glavine 156
9 Tim Hudson 145
10 Mariano Rivera 123

Glavine's not quite a HoF-er, Mussina may prompt debate some day, and it's too soon to tell for Hudson, who has a chance. Rivera, despite fewer innings (like Craig says, why blame him for how he's been used?) has already had an enormous impact on a lot of pennant races, and he's still awesome, even if he does scuff the ball.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 03:40 PM EST (#75455) #
The Yankees have been in 2 pennant races in which Rivera made a really significant contribution, 1996 (they were 7 games clear, but Rivera was so great that he was a large part of it) and 2000 (which was close down to the wire). Every other year, the Yankees have been in no danger of missing the playoffs whether they had Mariano Rivera or an average closer. He has been "saved" for the playoffs.

But, once there, he has performed more regularly and brilliantly. In the Yankees' particular situation, this performance has been extraordinarily valuable. It would not be so on a lesser team.
robertdudek - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 03:46 PM EST (#75456) #
Don't forget about Leverage Index: A run saved by an ace reliever is worth more than one saved by a starter.
_sef - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 04:06 PM EST (#75457) #
Craig B, enlighten me here: what you're saying is that, while Helton has a .935 road OPS over the last three years (which is good but not quite Manny Ramirez territory), if he were to move from Coors to a league-average ballpark, chances are he'd hit significantly better than .935 overall? interesting...
_Mark Jeays - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 06:32 PM EST (#75458) #
Yes & Yes for me on the Rivera issue.

650 IP in the regular season is not a lot to be sure but he has been very dominant. And then he kicks it up a level in the playoffs to some totally otherworldly level: 0.75 ERA in 96 IP. I get the value vs greatness debate but he has just been so great I can't see not enshrining him.

The PH issue is different because there is a lot less reason not to have a good hitter hit all the time, i.e. DH, whereas for closers they throw hard but not for long. No one skips a turn pinch-hitting because they pinch-hit the last two days :)

And hey, if some PH hit .400 every year with 15 HR in 150 at bats, or OPSed 1.200 or whatever, I'd vote for him too. But there's nobody like that.

Check out his 'Hall of Fame Monitor' on baseball-reference. Rivera is at 112 points on that (> 100 suggests HoF material). Although, I looked into the rules in a bit closer detail and there is 1 point given for EACH playoff relief appearance, which gives him a huge 61 points right there. The other points are mostly from his 30+ and 40+ save seasons.
robertdudek - Wednesday, March 24 2004 @ 09:07 PM EST (#75459) #
Of course, he'd have Coors as a road park. Plus, hitters hit better at home than on the road, all else being equal.
Joe - Thursday, March 25 2004 @ 07:13 AM EST (#75460) #
A great discussion about this over at Baseball Primer (http://www.baseballprimer.com/clutch/archives/00011170.shtml#comments_85). It seems most are on the "Mo in the HOF" bandwagon, though there are still a few (like me) who feel that:

1) If a pitcher is going to have under 1000 IP, they need to be incredible, not just very-good-to-great.

2) The best reliever in baseball (Gagne's 2003 excepted) is still lest valuable than a good starter who throws 200+ IP.
Craig B - Thursday, March 25 2004 @ 08:52 AM EST (#75461) #
Craig B, enlighten me here: what you're saying is that, while Helton has a .935 road OPS over the last three years (which is good but not quite Manny Ramirez territory), if he were to move from Coors to a league-average ballpark, chances are he'd hit significantly better than .935 overall? interesting...

sef, yes. When the site went down briefly yesterday, I had a long response cooked up. Unfortunately, I lost the whole thing when I tried to post it.

MGL recently calculated that Colorado hitters lose 37 points off their road OBP and 48 points off their road SLG - 85 points of OPS. That was based on 1995-2000 data; apparently the 1993-94 and 2001-02 data brought that down slightly. Still, Helton is much more likely, in "real life", a 1.020 OPS guy on the road than a .935 OPS guy. That's right in line with Manny.

This is a link to the updated version, which shows a smaller but still quite substantial effect...
robertdudek - Thursday, March 25 2004 @ 08:55 AM EST (#75462) #
Matthew Namee addresses the Mariano Rivera this issue in a concise manner at the Hardball Times.
Craig B - Thursday, March 25 2004 @ 09:00 AM EST (#75463) #
Joe, believe me, I understand your view. I just take a different view of what qualifies someone to be in the HOF.

It's like Sandy Koufax vs. Early Wynn. If we had to pick only one of those two guys to go in the HOF (say we were throwing players out to get to a limit, and they were the last two left), I'd take Koufax, because he was the better pitcher in terms of quality. You'd probably take Wynn, because he was better in terms of value. That's a perfectly sensible distinction, it's just a disagreement about what we think matters in HOF qualification. The issue ain't cut-and-dried, so it's just a friendly disagreement.

By the way, if you're not participating in the Hall of Merit project over at Primer, you should! It's awesome.

Also, over at The Hardball Times today, Matthew Namee takes a look at Is Mariano Rivera a Hall of Famer?. Not to be missed! A certain Bauxite who shall remain nameless also has a new article up on THT today...
Mike Green - Thursday, March 25 2004 @ 09:35 AM EST (#75464) #
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=5870&type=batting
Two comments. There is an easier way to look at the question of the significance of Helton's road stats. Due to the unbalanced schedule, Helton, and the other Rockies, played a disproportionate number of road games in Dodger Stadium, Pac Bell and Qualcomm (and BOB); he has almost three times the no. of road ABs in these parks compared with others in the NL. The first three parks have been very good pitching parks over the last 3 years; BOB has of course been a hitting park. Helton's performance in the parks has been reflective of their overall character (COMN). To make sense of road stats, you must adjust for the opposition parks in the same division.

Matthew Namee's article is a good one. I think, however, that an additional weighting of 50% in the leveraging of Rivera's post-season performance is grossly low.
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