When Joe Jackson wrote "You Can't Get What You Want ('Til You Know What You Want)", we doubt he had the Pittsburgh Pirates in mind. The team could never decide if wanted to try for one last gasp at a division title, or rebuild. In trying to meet both goals, it accomplished neither. The team has averaged a 71-91 record over the last 6 seasons and has finished higher than fourth only once since 1998.
Source: Baseball Reference.
Since the end of the 2002 season, the Pirates have used a two-tiered strategy in order to rebuild the minor league system and to maintain respectability on the field:
It's a good strategy, so long as you do not block more qualified players in your minor league system, and that you get some value for the players you trade away. In the 2002-2003 off-season, the Pirates signed Matt Stairs, Jeff Suppan, Reggie Sanders, and Kenny Lofton to one year deals and Randall Simon was acquired for minor leaguer Adrian Burnside. During the season, Simon, Lofton, and Suppan were dealt, along with longtime Pirates Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez, Scott Sauerbeck, and Mike Williams. The Pirates are unlikely to make as many moves this season, as the list of players they've signed to one year contracts is considerably less impressive, and they've already dealt away most of their players of note.
Projecting who will be in the everyday lineup for the Pirates is a difficult task, as the Pirates have given everyone with a pulse and their brother non-roster invites to spring training. If you didn't get one, it's likely that your spam filter ate it. In this preview we will do a position by position analysis in an attempt to weed out the pretenders from the contenders. We will also compare the likely contributions of this years players to last years, in order to see if the Pirates will be better or worse than their 2003 record of 75-87.
A note about the ZiPS projections: Under any system the playing time predictions tend to be a poor predictor of reality; Pirate catchers as a group are not going to total 1500 at bats this season, for instance. Mr. Szymborski also wishes to note that "ZiPS doesn't try to project who will get a job".
For each batter we've calculated his Gleeman Production Average (GPA) as a shorthand way of comparing the offensive production (or expected offensive production) between players. For the 2003 figures we've placed each player at the position where he played the most games, and for the 2004 figures we've placed each player at the position where we expect he'll see the most action at.
ZiPS projects a decline for Jason Kendall, who had a terrific year in 2003 after two subpar ones. A deal that would send Kendall to San Diego never materialized, and is now unlikely to happen as the Padres acquired former Oakland backstop Ramon Hernandez. Kendall's contract pays him 8 million this year, then 10, 11, and 13 million dollars in the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 respectively. This will make it difficult to move Kendall to a contender, unless the Pirates are willing to eat a large portion of the contract. Given the depth the Bucs have at catcher in the minor league system, we wouldn't be surprised to see them make a deal this year.
Former Blue Jay Sandy Martinez is likely to back up Kendall at the beginning of the season, with his major compeition being Keith McDonald. McDonald hit .239 last season for the Iowa Cubs and Martinez hit .247 for the Omaha Royals. Because of how unappealing these options are, there has been a great deal of talk about Craig Wilson getting some playing time behind the plate. Wilson appeared in 21 games behind the plate last year, along with 40 games in right, 36 games at first base, 7 in left, and in 3 interleague games he was a DH. Although he can hit a ton, Wilson isn't a particularly adept defensive catcher, so don't expect to see him behind the plate too often. Wilson hopes to be behind the dish twice a week, which appears to be fairly optimistic from here. Expect to see Martinez or McDonald on the 25 man roster as the traditional backup catcher, with Wilson splitting time between four different positions until he becomes a Dodger. Needless to say, the Pirates are expecting Kendall to be behind the plate the majority of the time.
Although he's been plauged by injuries, J.R. House remains one of the top 10 catching prospects in baseball. House is unlikely to start the season with the big club, but if Kendall is traded at the deadline, don't be surprised to see House become the everyday catcher. Barring any further injuries, House should start the season at AAA Nashville, as he's spent part of 3 seasons in AA Altoona. He is clearly the Pirates backstop of the future.
The Pirates have three of their other minor league catchers in camp: Humberto Cota had a rough season last year, hitting only .205 in 200 AAA at-bats. The 2001 Pirates Minor League Player of the Year likely start the season back in AAA with House. Like House, Ronny Paulino had an injury filled season last year, as a hip flexor limited him to less than 250 at-bats. Expect to see Paulino start the season in AA Altoona. Last, but certainly not least, Ryan Doumit. Doumit, a 2nd round draftpick in 1999, hit .275/.351/.434 for the Lynchburg Hillcats of the class A Carolina League. In most organizations Doumit would be the top catching prospect in the organization, but is currently #2 behind House. Despite average plate discipline, we should expect to see Doumit move quickly through the Pirates minor league system. His future in the organization will depend highly on how well House performs.
Outlook: The Pirates are likely to regress at a little behind the plate this season. If House tears up AAA, expect to see Kendall moved for prospects, particularly if the Pirates are struggling and willing to write-off the 2004 season.
The Pirates didn't get a great deal of production out of 1st base last season, despite Randall Simon's respectable batting average. Simon returns to the Pirates as a free-agent, after being dealt to the Cubs last season in exchange for outfield prospect Ray Sadler. Simon will serve the functions of protecting the clubhouse from food related mascots and screwing Craig Wilson out of playing time, until he's traded to the Expos for a case of begging strips.
Before signings of Randall Simon and Raul Mondesi, Daryle Ward appeared to be a lock for a backup role on the Pirates. You may remember Ward from such Houston Astros seasons as 2000 and 2002, where he hit 20 and 12 homeruns respectively. Unless Ward has a great spring training, he's unlikely to make the team, due to the glut of players available to play 1st base and the outfield. Publicly, Ward remains optimistic about his chances.
Simon is a .300 hitter against righties, but only a .250 hitter against lefties (over the last 3 season), so expect to see the right-handed Craig Wilson start at 1st base against left-handed pitching. Wilson has crushed left-handers to the tune of .322/.414/.595 over the last three seasons, which makes him attractive to playoff bound teams needing an extra bat on the bench.
ZiPS believes that Andy Abad could put up big numbers for the Pirates if given the chance. Abad hit .304/.372/.462 for AAA Pawtucket this season and comes to the Pirates as a minor league free agent. Despite being a better option than Simon, he's unlikely to make the team.
Farmhand Carlos Rivera hit .263 with 9 homeruns last year for AAA Nashville and will return to AAA at the end of spring training.
Outlook: The Pirates got almost no production out of first base last year, so it would be difficult for them not to improve this year. Barring injuries, expect to see Randall Simon start against lefties, with Craig Wilson getting some starts against lefties, so long as he isn't playing some other position. Ward and Rivera are longshots to make the team, and Abad will probably end up surfacing with a different organization.
The Pirates expected that Freddy Sanchez would be the starting 2nd baseman on opening day, but due to ankle injury Sanchez may be out until the middle of May. The 26 year old native of Hollywood California was acquired along with half a million dollars and pitcher Mike Gonzalez in a deal last July that sent Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon, and Anastacio Martinez to the Red Sox. Sanchez has also played at short and 3rd base in the minors, but his arm strength is questionable.
The Sanchez injury has opened up a starting job at second for Bobby Hill. Hill, Jose Hernandez, and pitcher Matt Bruback were acquired in a July 22nd deal that sent Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez to Chicago's north side. Hill has been a stathead favorite for a number of years because of his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios in the minor leagues. If Bobby does not start the season well, he will be relegated to the bench or the minors when Sanchez returns. A strong April for Hill would allow him to keep a starting job, with Sanchez or Hill being shifted to third base when Freddy returns from the DL.
Organizational soldier and NRI Luis Figueroa is a longshot to make the team. The Puerto Rico native hit .317 last year for the Edmonton Trappers of the Pacific Coast League, but only had 2 homeruns and 36 walks in 480 at-bats.
Although Abraham Nunez is the incumbent at second, he will be fighting for a utility job this spring, as Hill and Sanchez are seen as better options at 2nd. Hardcore Jays fans should recall that Nunez was one of the many minor leaguers sent to the Pirates in the November 1996 deal that sent Carlos Garcia, Orlando Merced and Dan Plesac to Toronto. If two players named Alex Gonzalez isn't confusing enough, there's a second Abraham Nunez that is competing for the 5th outfield spot with the Marlins.
Outlook: Like first base, second base was a weak link for the Pirates last year, so they'll likely improve. The level of improvement at the position will depend on the health of Freddy Sanchez and with how much playing time they're willing to give to Bobby Hill.
Even after winning his arbitration case, don't expect to see Jack Wilson traded anytime soon. Wilson is entering his fourth season as the starting shortstop for the Bucs. Jack is one of the best defensive shortstops in the National League; we wouldn't be surprised if Wilson took home a gold glove or two over the next decade. Unfortunately he's also one of the worst hitters in the Senior Circuit.
Former Montreal Expo Tomas De La Rosa played in 101 games in AAA Nashville, putting together a line of .247/.318/.346. Depending on how many backup second and third basemen the Pirates carry, De La Rosa could win a bench position in spring training.
Donaldo Mendez appeared in 22 games last season with the San Diego Padres, batting .226 with 2 homeruns. Despite having visa problems, we wouldn't be shocked if Mendez won a backup job.
Jose Castillo hit .287 last season for AA Altoona, after hitting .300 the year before for A Lynchburg. Castillo will likely spend the season between AA and AAA, as he could stand to improve his plate discipline.
Outlook: Jack Wilson was the shortstop last year, and he'll be the shortstop this year. Expect Wilson to keep improving both offensively and defensively, so the Pirates should see modest gains in this position in 2004.
Manager Lloyd McLendon has been quoted as saying that Truby and Stynes should see the bulk of innings at third during spring training. Chris Stynes has bounced around from the Reds to the Red Sox to the Cubs to the Rockies, allegedly because of his less than sparkling personality. Stynes can be valuable in a bench role as he's played every position except pitcher, catcher, and first baseman in his big league career. Stynes has been unable to match his 2000 form, when he hit .334 with 12 homeruns in 380 at-bats with the Reds.
Baseball Primer favorite Chris Truby spent most of 2003 in AAA, but did collect 43 at-bats for Tampa Bay. Unlike Stynes, Truby has little experience playing other positions, and is thus less valuable in a bench role, should Bobby Hill or Freddy Sanchez earn the starting job at third.
Infielder Rob Mackowiak is recovering from knee surgery, and may not see a great deal of playing time during spring training. Like Stynes, Mackowiak has experience playing a number of different positions, including all three outfield positions, second base and third base. Unlike Stynes, Mackowiak is a left-handed batter, and will likely end up starting the season as a platoon partner with either Truby or Stynes.
Outlook: It's difficult to project who will get the bulk of the starts at third. At the beginning of the year expect to see third shared by two of Mackowiak, Stynes, and Truby. Don't be surprised to see one of the second basemen like Hill or Sanchez moved to the hot corner, as Mackowiak, Stynes, and Truby are more useful on the bench. Even with last years abysmal performance of Jose Hernandez, there are no guarantees that the situation at third will improve.
It's expected that Raul Mondesi will hit cleanup for the 2004 Pirates and get the majority of starts in rightfield. Mondesi signed a one-year deal with a team option paying him $1.15 million this season. The option requires the team to sign Raul to an $8 million contract in 2005 or pay him a $600,000 buyout. If Major League baseball had an award for "Option Least Likely to Be Exercized", this one would win it.
Former Expo and Blue Jay Orlando Merced is in camp as an NRI. Manager Lloyd McLendon is hoping to use Merced as a pinch hitter this season. If Merced does make the team, he is unlikely to see too much time in the field, given the Bucs other options.
Poor Craig Wilson. Despite being the best hitter on the team, he will not be a regular starter at any position for the Bucs. We wouldn't be surprised if he still managed to pick up 400 at-bats shuffling between rightfield, first base, and catcher. We'd be even less surprised if he were traded to a more enlightened organization, preferrably an American League one where he could get some at-bats at DH.
Despite being in the major leagues since 1999, Ruben Mateo just turned 26 in February. Mateo was less than spectacular in his last two seasons with the Reds and is hoping to resurrect his career on the Allegheny. It is unlikely that Mateo will make the team, particularly since outfield prospect J.J. Davis is out of options.
Like Orlando Merced, former Expo Henry Rodriguez is in camp looking to grab a spot on the bench. We're big fans of Oh Henry's, so it will be sad for us to see him cut from camp, which he most certainly will be at some point.
Outlook: The tagteam of Reggie Sanders and Matt Stairs did an unbelievable job for the Pirates last season in right field. The Pirates should expect a steep decline from the position, particularly if Mondesi is the everyday starter. Hopefully the Pirates will trade Mondi to a contender and keep Wilson, though we fear it may end up being the other way around.
Tike Redman enters camp as the incumbent in centerfield. The former 5th round draftpick hit .330 last year after batting .224 the year before. ZiPS has him regressing a little from his huge gains last year, but Redman should continue to be a valuable player for the Pirates.
Statheads everywhere scratched their heads last year when Billy Beane signed Chris Singleton to be the everyday centerfielder. Our scalps ended up being justifiably bloody and raw, as Singleton could only manage a .301 on base percentage with 1 homerun. Singleton is likely to be Redman's backup and will see very little playing time unless Tike gets injured or slumps badly. There's also some questions about Singleton's health, namely about what is causing his dizzy spells.
Outfielder Tony Alvarez is one of the more valuable prospects in the Pirates organization. In his first season in AAA, Alvarez hit .298 with 9 homeruns in 349 at-bats. In order to become an everyday player, Alvarez needs to improve his batting eye, as he struck out 69 times but walked only 28 last season. Alvarez will likely start the season back in AAA, but should see some time with the big club by the time the season is over.
Addendum: After this preview was written, Chris Singleton was released because he failed his physical. This opens up a spot for another outfielder that can play center. Most of the outfielders on the roster do not have the range for the position, so Tony Alvarez's chances to make the team have improved, unless the Bucs are comfortable having J.J. Davis in centerfield. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates snag someone off of waivers at the end of Spring Training.
Outlook: Although Tike Redman is likely to regress a little from last season, centerfield should be a source of slight improvement for the Pirates, as Kenny Lofton and Adam Hyzdu did not have particularly successful seasons with the Bucs in 2003. If Alvarez can prove that he is worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup, either he or Redman may be sent to a team looking for a centerfielder.
Canadian Jason Bay was acquired with pitcher Oliver Perez and a PTBNL in the deal that sent Brian Giles to San Diego. Bay had shoulder surgery in November, but is expected to be able to play on opening day. If he cannot play, expect to see Mondesi shift to leftfield and Craig Wilson start in right. A healthy Jason Bay will greatly help the Pirates, as he hit .303 with 20 homers and 24 steals last season for the AAA Portland Beavers. Expect to see Bay in leftfield for the Pirates for many years to come.
Outfielder J.J. Davis is likely to make the team, simply because he is out of options. The former 1st round draftpick hit .284 with 26 homers and 23 steals last season with AAA Nashville, so he deserves the opportunity. There's at least half a dozen teams that could use him as a fourth outfielder, so we can't imagine he'll pass through waivers.
Luke Allen has played both the outfield and third base in the minor leagues. He's had two very short cups of coffee with the Dodgers and Rockies, and barring a flurry of trades or injuries, he's unlikely to get more than that with the Pirates.
Outlook: Last year the Pirates had Brian Giles. This year they don't. Despite his age, Jason Bay is a terrific prospect, but in the short run, expect a steep decline in production coming out of left field.
Three of the Pirates starting five are back again this year, including ace of the staff Kip Wells. The 10-9 record Wells sported last year is not indictive of how well he pitched last season; had he been with the Red Sox, he might have won 20. ZiPS is quite pessimistic about how well Wells should pitch next year, as his ERAs for the last two seasons have been 3.58 and 3.28. We expect Wells to post another sub-4 ERA this season.
Former 1st overall draftpick Kris Benson hopes to bounce back from injuries that have seen him pitch only 235 innings over the last four years for the Bucs. Part of the problem may have been that Kris was in no rush to return to the mound, as he'd rather stay home with his distractingly attractive wife. If the Pirates are to go anywhere this year, they need Benson to revert back to his 2000 form. If Kris does get off to a hot start while the rest of the team flounders, don't be surprised to see him traded to a contender, as he'll be a free agent at the end of the season.
Starter Josh Fogg regressed from his quality 2002 season, to post an ERA of 5.26 last year. ZiPS believes that Fogg will improve somewhat in 2004, but if he doesn't, there are quite a few arms in the system that could take his place.
Lefthander Oliver Perez should stick in the fourth or fifth spot of the rotation. Perez, who was acquired in the Brian Giles deal, has a major league ERA of 4.67 in 39 starts, all but five of which were with the Padres. He's posted good, but not spectacular numbers in the minors, but given that he does not turn 23 until August, he still has time to develop into a quality starter.
Former replacement player Rick Reed has signed a minor league deal with the Pirates, and will likely be the 5th starter. It's hard to see what Reed brings to the table as he was 6-12 with a 5.07 ERA for the division winning Minnesota Twins last season. His sole purpose on the Bucs seems to be keep the far more qualified Ryan Vogelsong in middle-relief or AAA.
If one of the starters falters or is traded, Ryan Vogelsong will likely become the 5th starter. Vogelsong was acquired along with Armando Rios in the ill-fated trade that sent Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal to the Giants. After a great deal of confusion, MLB decided that Vogelsong still has one option remaining and thus is likely to start the season in AAA.
Salomon Torres started 16 games and appeared in 25 more as a reliever. Torres will likely be used as a longman and occasional spot starter again this season, though it is unlikely he'll start more than a handful of games this year. Torres has already tweaked his hamstring in spring training, but it's nothing major.
Although he has started 66 games in the major leagues, the 30 year old Blake Stein is a longshot to stick with the Pirates, though he will be getting at least one start in spring training.
Some of the starting pitchers in camp are a few years away from making significant contributions. Sean Burnett was drafted 19th overall in 2000, and was 14-6 with the AA Altoona Curve in 2003. Burnett will not turn 22 until September 17th, so look for him to spend most of this year between AA and AAA, with the possibility of a start or two with the Pirates when rosters expand in September. Burnett has been compared to Jimmy Key. High praise indeed!
Ian Snell, also known as the pitcher formerly known as Ian Oquendo went a combined 14-4 between A-ball Lynchburg and AA Altoona. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in A ball last year was nearly 4 to 1. He's been a starter in the minor leagues, but Pirates manager McClendon has compared him to Flash Gordon.
While we're on the subject of comparisons, McClendon has compared John VanBenschoten to Bret Saberhagen. Given that Saberhagen was a fulltime big-league starter at the age of 20, whereas John VanBenschoten turns 24 on April 13th and has yet to pitch an inning in the bigs. The 2001 1st round draftpick (notice a trend?) split the 2003 season between Lynchburg and Altoona, with a combined record of 13-7. He's only started 17 games at the AA level, so we would not be surprised to see him start the season in Altoona, but he should be in Nashville by midseason.
Burnett, Benson, and VanBenschoten are not the only former 1st round draftpicks in camp, as 1999 1st rounder Bobby Bradley. Bradley missed the 2001 and 2002 seasons as he had "reconstructive elbow surgery", and missed some time last year with shoulder problems. As such, he has not pitched beyond the Carolina League, and is a long way from the Major Leagues.
If that wasn't enough, the Pirates have also invited Paul Maholm their 1st round draftpick from 2003 to spring training. Has anyone told the Pirates that draft picks can be used on position players?
Outlook: Kip Wells may be the only Pirate who both starts and finishes the season in the rotation for the Pirates. Reed and Benson could be traded in midseason, and Perez and Fogg could be moved to middle relief if they do not perform. A 2005 rotation of Wells, Perez, Burnett, VanBenschoten and Fogg or Vogelsong looks likely. ZiPS projects the rotation to be worse this year, but since it seems overly pessimistic about Kip Wells, the performance of the 2004 crew should match that of 2003.
Trying to project saves is a fool's errand, so ZiPS has decided to avoid the matter entirely. At any rate, this is an ugly, ugly group. Jose Mesa enters camp as the likely closer. Yes, the same Jose Mesa who had an ERA of 6.52 last year. If that isn't bad enough, Juan Acevedo could be the setup man for the Bucs. Yes, the same Juan Acevedo who was run out of the Skydome and Yankee Stadium. Other potential candidates for the role of setupman are righty Brian Boehringer and lefty Mark Guthrie. ZiPS isn't particularly optimistic about the performance of any of these four, particularly the 38 year old Guthrie.
The closer of the future would appear to be Mike Johnston. In his first season as a reliever, Johnston recorded an ERA of 2.12 with 27 walks and 65 strikeouts over 72 innings. There has been some talk of Johnston starting the season with the Pirates, but a more prudent course of action would be to let Johnston perfect his craft in AAA.
Another possibility for closer of the future is John Grabow, who split time between AA Altoona and AAA Nashville last season. Grabow's minor league stats aren't as impressive as Johnston's, but Grabow is closer to the major leagues, and will likely earn a spot in the Pirate bullpen before Johnston does.
Outlook: The 2004 bullpen may be better than last years, in the same way having your car stolen may be better than losing a toe in an industrial accident. The Pirates have quite a few decent arms in the minor league system, so the bullpen shouldn't be this lousy forever.
There are quite a few pitchers in camp who do not project to start the season in the rotation or the bullpen. Here are their projections:
2003 in a Box - Pittsburgh Pirates, 75-87, 4th Place NL Central
Team Batting and Pitching Stats
| Team Batting | Team Pitching | ||||
| Category | Amount | NL Rank | Category | Amount | NL Rank |
| R | 753 | 7 | ERA | 4.64 | 12 |
| 2B | 275 | 11 | W | 75 | 11 |
| 3B | 45 | 2 | SV | 44 | 4 |
| HR | 163 | 10 | CG | 7 | 5 |
| BB | 529 | 10 | SHO | 10 | 6 |
| SO | 1049 | 7 | IP | 1444.3 | 10 |
| BA | .267 | 3 | H | 1527 | 12 |
| OBP | .338 | 5 | R | 801 | 12 |
| SLG | .420 | 7 | BB | 502 | 2 |
| SB | 86 | 4 | HR | 178 | 10 |
| CS | 37 | 6 | SO | 926 | 14 |
Since the end of the 2002 season, the Pirates have used a two-tiered strategy in order to rebuild the minor league system and to maintain respectability on the field:
- Sign veteran free agents to one year contracts to fill holes in the lineup
- Flip those players to contenders at the trading deadline for prospects if the team is out of contention
It's a good strategy, so long as you do not block more qualified players in your minor league system, and that you get some value for the players you trade away. In the 2002-2003 off-season, the Pirates signed Matt Stairs, Jeff Suppan, Reggie Sanders, and Kenny Lofton to one year deals and Randall Simon was acquired for minor leaguer Adrian Burnside. During the season, Simon, Lofton, and Suppan were dealt, along with longtime Pirates Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez, Scott Sauerbeck, and Mike Williams. The Pirates are unlikely to make as many moves this season, as the list of players they've signed to one year contracts is considerably less impressive, and they've already dealt away most of their players of note.
Projecting who will be in the everyday lineup for the Pirates is a difficult task, as the Pirates have given everyone with a pulse and their brother non-roster invites to spring training. If you didn't get one, it's likely that your spam filter ate it. In this preview we will do a position by position analysis in an attempt to weed out the pretenders from the contenders. We will also compare the likely contributions of this years players to last years, in order to see if the Pirates will be better or worse than their 2003 record of 75-87.
Analysis
We consider all the players currently on the 40 man roster, along with the 25 players who have NRIs from the Pirates. For each player, we've included his ZiPS projection if it is available. A big round of applause goes to Dan Szymborski for making these available on Baseball Primer's Transaction Oracle page.A note about the ZiPS projections: Under any system the playing time predictions tend to be a poor predictor of reality; Pirate catchers as a group are not going to total 1500 at bats this season, for instance. Mr. Szymborski also wishes to note that "ZiPS doesn't try to project who will get a job".
For each batter we've calculated his Gleeman Production Average (GPA) as a shorthand way of comparing the offensive production (or expected offensive production) between players. For the 2003 figures we've placed each player at the position where he played the most games, and for the 2004 figures we've placed each player at the position where we expect he'll see the most action at.
Position Players
Catcher - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| PIT | Jason | Kendall | R/R | 29 | 587 | .325 | .399 | .416 | .284 |
| PIT | Humberto | Cota | R/R | 24 | 16 | .250 | .294 | .312 | .210 |
| PIT | J.R. | House | R/R | 23 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | .700 |
| TOTAL | 604 | .324 | .397 | .414 | .282 |
Catcher - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 18 | Jason | Kendall | R/R | 30 | 589 | .302 | .377 | .390 | .267 |
| 11 | Humberto | Cota | R/R | 25 | 350 | .263 | .321 | .397 | .244 |
| 30 | J.R. | House | R/R | 24 | 297 | .259 | .327 | .394 | .246 |
| 63 | Keith | McDonald | R/R | 31 | 272 | .228 | .293 | .419 | .237 |
| 67 | Sandy | Martinez | L/R | 33 | 103 | .214 | .270 | .320 | .202 |
| 74 | Ronny | Paulino | R/R | 23 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| 14 | Ryan | Doumit | S/R | 23 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
ZiPS projects a decline for Jason Kendall, who had a terrific year in 2003 after two subpar ones. A deal that would send Kendall to San Diego never materialized, and is now unlikely to happen as the Padres acquired former Oakland backstop Ramon Hernandez. Kendall's contract pays him 8 million this year, then 10, 11, and 13 million dollars in the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 respectively. This will make it difficult to move Kendall to a contender, unless the Pirates are willing to eat a large portion of the contract. Given the depth the Bucs have at catcher in the minor league system, we wouldn't be surprised to see them make a deal this year.
Former Blue Jay Sandy Martinez is likely to back up Kendall at the beginning of the season, with his major compeition being Keith McDonald. McDonald hit .239 last season for the Iowa Cubs and Martinez hit .247 for the Omaha Royals. Because of how unappealing these options are, there has been a great deal of talk about Craig Wilson getting some playing time behind the plate. Wilson appeared in 21 games behind the plate last year, along with 40 games in right, 36 games at first base, 7 in left, and in 3 interleague games he was a DH. Although he can hit a ton, Wilson isn't a particularly adept defensive catcher, so don't expect to see him behind the plate too often. Wilson hopes to be behind the dish twice a week, which appears to be fairly optimistic from here. Expect to see Martinez or McDonald on the 25 man roster as the traditional backup catcher, with Wilson splitting time between four different positions until he becomes a Dodger. Needless to say, the Pirates are expecting Kendall to be behind the plate the majority of the time.
Although he's been plauged by injuries, J.R. House remains one of the top 10 catching prospects in baseball. House is unlikely to start the season with the big club, but if Kendall is traded at the deadline, don't be surprised to see House become the everyday catcher. Barring any further injuries, House should start the season at AAA Nashville, as he's spent part of 3 seasons in AA Altoona. He is clearly the Pirates backstop of the future.
The Pirates have three of their other minor league catchers in camp: Humberto Cota had a rough season last year, hitting only .205 in 200 AAA at-bats. The 2001 Pirates Minor League Player of the Year likely start the season back in AAA with House. Like House, Ronny Paulino had an injury filled season last year, as a hip flexor limited him to less than 250 at-bats. Expect to see Paulino start the season in AA Altoona. Last, but certainly not least, Ryan Doumit. Doumit, a 2nd round draftpick in 1999, hit .275/.351/.434 for the Lynchburg Hillcats of the class A Carolina League. In most organizations Doumit would be the top catching prospect in the organization, but is currently #2 behind House. Despite average plate discipline, we should expect to see Doumit move quickly through the Pirates minor league system. His future in the organization will depend highly on how well House performs.
Outlook: The Pirates are likely to regress at a little behind the plate this season. If House tears up AAA, expect to see Kendall moved for prospects, particularly if the Pirates are struggling and willing to write-off the 2004 season.
1st Base - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| PIT | Craig | Wilson | R/R | 26 | 309 | .262 | .360 | .511 | .290 |
| PIT | Randall | Simon | L/L | 28 | 307 | .274 | .305 | .417 | .242 |
| PIT | Carlos | Rivera | L/L | 25 | 95 | .221 | .283 | .368 | .219 |
| RET | Kevin | Young | R/R | 34 | 84 | .202 | .302 | .321 | .216 |
| TOTAL | 795 | .255 | .323 | .438 | .255 |
1st Base - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 53 | Andy | Abad | L/L | 31 | 461 | .299 | .376 | .449 | .281 |
| -- | Randall | Simon | L/L | 29 | 423 | .293 | .325 | .454 | .260 |
| 55 | Carlos | Rivera | L/L | 26 | 423 | .262 | .305 | .421 | .243 |
| 35 | Daryle | Ward | L/L | 29 | 344 | .262 | .317 | .392 | .241 |
The Pirates didn't get a great deal of production out of 1st base last season, despite Randall Simon's respectable batting average. Simon returns to the Pirates as a free-agent, after being dealt to the Cubs last season in exchange for outfield prospect Ray Sadler. Simon will serve the functions of protecting the clubhouse from food related mascots and screwing Craig Wilson out of playing time, until he's traded to the Expos for a case of begging strips.
Before signings of Randall Simon and Raul Mondesi, Daryle Ward appeared to be a lock for a backup role on the Pirates. You may remember Ward from such Houston Astros seasons as 2000 and 2002, where he hit 20 and 12 homeruns respectively. Unless Ward has a great spring training, he's unlikely to make the team, due to the glut of players available to play 1st base and the outfield. Publicly, Ward remains optimistic about his chances.
Simon is a .300 hitter against righties, but only a .250 hitter against lefties (over the last 3 season), so expect to see the right-handed Craig Wilson start at 1st base against left-handed pitching. Wilson has crushed left-handers to the tune of .322/.414/.595 over the last three seasons, which makes him attractive to playoff bound teams needing an extra bat on the bench.
ZiPS believes that Andy Abad could put up big numbers for the Pirates if given the chance. Abad hit .304/.372/.462 for AAA Pawtucket this season and comes to the Pirates as a minor league free agent. Despite being a better option than Simon, he's unlikely to make the team.
Farmhand Carlos Rivera hit .263 with 9 homeruns last year for AAA Nashville and will return to AAA at the end of spring training.
Outlook: The Pirates got almost no production out of first base last year, so it would be difficult for them not to improve this year. Barring injuries, expect to see Randall Simon start against lefties, with Craig Wilson getting some starts against lefties, so long as he isn't playing some other position. Ward and Rivera are longshots to make the team, and Abad will probably end up surfacing with a different organization.
2nd Base - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| PIT | Abraham | Nunez | S/R | 27 | 311 | .248 | .310 | .357 | .229 |
| RET | Jeff | Reboulet | R/R | 39 | 261 | .241 | .321 | .330 | .227 |
| BOS | Pokey | Reese | R/R | 30 | 107 | .215 | .271 | .262 | .187 |
| PIT | Bobby | Hill | S/R | 25 | 3 | .333 | .500 | .333 | .308 |
| TOTAL | 682 | .241 | .309 | .332 | .222 |
2nd Base - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 75 | Luis | Figueroa | R/R | 30 | 476 | .284 | .343 | .374 | .248 |
| 17 | Bobby | Hill | S/R | 26 | 462 | .266 | .344 | .383 | .251 |
| 12 | Freddy | Sanchez | R/R | 26 | 407 | .307 | .376 | .413 | .272 |
| 7 | Abraham | Nunez | S/R | 28 | 304 | .250 | .319 | .349 | .231 |
The Pirates expected that Freddy Sanchez would be the starting 2nd baseman on opening day, but due to ankle injury Sanchez may be out until the middle of May. The 26 year old native of Hollywood California was acquired along with half a million dollars and pitcher Mike Gonzalez in a deal last July that sent Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon, and Anastacio Martinez to the Red Sox. Sanchez has also played at short and 3rd base in the minors, but his arm strength is questionable.
The Sanchez injury has opened up a starting job at second for Bobby Hill. Hill, Jose Hernandez, and pitcher Matt Bruback were acquired in a July 22nd deal that sent Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez to Chicago's north side. Hill has been a stathead favorite for a number of years because of his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios in the minor leagues. If Bobby does not start the season well, he will be relegated to the bench or the minors when Sanchez returns. A strong April for Hill would allow him to keep a starting job, with Sanchez or Hill being shifted to third base when Freddy returns from the DL.
Organizational soldier and NRI Luis Figueroa is a longshot to make the team. The Puerto Rico native hit .317 last year for the Edmonton Trappers of the Pacific Coast League, but only had 2 homeruns and 36 walks in 480 at-bats.
Although Abraham Nunez is the incumbent at second, he will be fighting for a utility job this spring, as Hill and Sanchez are seen as better options at 2nd. Hardcore Jays fans should recall that Nunez was one of the many minor leaguers sent to the Pirates in the November 1996 deal that sent Carlos Garcia, Orlando Merced and Dan Plesac to Toronto. If two players named Alex Gonzalez isn't confusing enough, there's a second Abraham Nunez that is competing for the 5th outfield spot with the Marlins.
Outlook: Like first base, second base was a weak link for the Pirates last year, so they'll likely improve. The level of improvement at the position will depend on the health of Freddy Sanchez and with how much playing time they're willing to give to Bobby Hill.
Shortstop - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| PIT | Jack | Wilson | R/R | 25 | 558 | .256 | .303 | .353 | .225 |
Shortstop - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 2 | Jack | Wilson | R/R | 26 | 547 | .261 | .313 | .349 | .228 |
| 6 | Jose | Castillo | R/R | 23 | 493 | .278 | .349 | .375 | .251 |
| 64 | Donaldo | Mendez | R/R | 26 | 431 | .216 | .278 | .320 | .205 |
| 65 | Tomas | De La Rosa | R/R | 26 | 347 | .231 | .297 | .320 | .214 |
Even after winning his arbitration case, don't expect to see Jack Wilson traded anytime soon. Wilson is entering his fourth season as the starting shortstop for the Bucs. Jack is one of the best defensive shortstops in the National League; we wouldn't be surprised if Wilson took home a gold glove or two over the next decade. Unfortunately he's also one of the worst hitters in the Senior Circuit.
Former Montreal Expo Tomas De La Rosa played in 101 games in AAA Nashville, putting together a line of .247/.318/.346. Depending on how many backup second and third basemen the Pirates carry, De La Rosa could win a bench position in spring training.
Donaldo Mendez appeared in 22 games last season with the San Diego Padres, batting .226 with 2 homeruns. Despite having visa problems, we wouldn't be shocked if Mendez won a backup job.
Jose Castillo hit .287 last season for AA Altoona, after hitting .300 the year before for A Lynchburg. Castillo will likely spend the season between AA and AAA, as he could stand to improve his plate discipline.
Outlook: Jack Wilson was the shortstop last year, and he'll be the shortstop this year. Expect Wilson to keep improving both offensively and defensively, so the Pirates should see modest gains in this position in 2004.
3rd Base - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| CHC | Aramis | Ramirez | R/R | 25 | 375 | .280 | .330 | .448 | .261 |
| LAD | Jose | Hernandez | R/R | 33 | 193 | .223 | .282 | .326 | .208 |
| PIT | Rob | Mackowiak | L/R | 27 | 174 | .270 | .342 | .443 | .265 |
| TOTAL | 742 | .263 | .320 | .415 | .248 |
3rd Base - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 29 | Chris | Truby | R/R | 30 | 449 | .247 | .306 | .394 | .236 |
| 3 | Chris | Stynes | R/R | 31 | 391 | .263 | .335 | .417 | .255 |
| 59 | Rob | Mackowiak | L/R | 28 | 389 | .249 | .323 | .391 | .243 |
Manager Lloyd McLendon has been quoted as saying that Truby and Stynes should see the bulk of innings at third during spring training. Chris Stynes has bounced around from the Reds to the Red Sox to the Cubs to the Rockies, allegedly because of his less than sparkling personality. Stynes can be valuable in a bench role as he's played every position except pitcher, catcher, and first baseman in his big league career. Stynes has been unable to match his 2000 form, when he hit .334 with 12 homeruns in 380 at-bats with the Reds.
Baseball Primer favorite Chris Truby spent most of 2003 in AAA, but did collect 43 at-bats for Tampa Bay. Unlike Stynes, Truby has little experience playing other positions, and is thus less valuable in a bench role, should Bobby Hill or Freddy Sanchez earn the starting job at third.
Infielder Rob Mackowiak is recovering from knee surgery, and may not see a great deal of playing time during spring training. Like Stynes, Mackowiak has experience playing a number of different positions, including all three outfield positions, second base and third base. Unlike Stynes, Mackowiak is a left-handed batter, and will likely end up starting the season as a platoon partner with either Truby or Stynes.
Outlook: It's difficult to project who will get the bulk of the starts at third. At the beginning of the year expect to see third shared by two of Mackowiak, Stynes, and Truby. Don't be surprised to see one of the second basemen like Hill or Sanchez moved to the hot corner, as Mackowiak, Stynes, and Truby are more useful on the bench. Even with last years abysmal performance of Jose Hernandez, there are no guarantees that the situation at third will improve.
Rightfield - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| STL | Reggie | Sanders | R/R | 35 | 453 | .285 | .345 | .567 | .297 |
| KCR | Matt | Stairs | L/R | 35 | 305 | .292 | .389 | .561 | .315 |
| PIT | J.J. | Davis | R/R | 24 | 35 | .200 | .263 | .286 | .190 |
| TOTAL | 793 | .284 | .358 | .552 | .299 |
Rightfield - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| -- | Raul | Mondesi | R/R | 33 | 548 | .255 | .336 | .469 | .268 |
| 24 | Ruben | Mateo | R/R | 26 | 399 | .278 | .332 | .424 | .255 |
| 36 | Craig | Wilson | R/R | 27 | 325 | .274 | .374 | .498 | .293 |
| -- | Orlando | Merced | L/R | 37 | 209 | .244 | .313 | .392 | .239 |
| 77 | Henry | Rodriguez | L/L | 36 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
It's expected that Raul Mondesi will hit cleanup for the 2004 Pirates and get the majority of starts in rightfield. Mondesi signed a one-year deal with a team option paying him $1.15 million this season. The option requires the team to sign Raul to an $8 million contract in 2005 or pay him a $600,000 buyout. If Major League baseball had an award for "Option Least Likely to Be Exercized", this one would win it.
Former Expo and Blue Jay Orlando Merced is in camp as an NRI. Manager Lloyd McLendon is hoping to use Merced as a pinch hitter this season. If Merced does make the team, he is unlikely to see too much time in the field, given the Bucs other options.
Poor Craig Wilson. Despite being the best hitter on the team, he will not be a regular starter at any position for the Bucs. We wouldn't be surprised if he still managed to pick up 400 at-bats shuffling between rightfield, first base, and catcher. We'd be even less surprised if he were traded to a more enlightened organization, preferrably an American League one where he could get some at-bats at DH.
Despite being in the major leagues since 1999, Ruben Mateo just turned 26 in February. Mateo was less than spectacular in his last two seasons with the Reds and is hoping to resurrect his career on the Allegheny. It is unlikely that Mateo will make the team, particularly since outfield prospect J.J. Davis is out of options.
Like Orlando Merced, former Expo Henry Rodriguez is in camp looking to grab a spot on the bench. We're big fans of Oh Henry's, so it will be sad for us to see him cut from camp, which he most certainly will be at some point.
Outlook: The tagteam of Reggie Sanders and Matt Stairs did an unbelievable job for the Pirates last season in right field. The Pirates should expect a steep decline from the position, particularly if Mondesi is the everyday starter. Hopefully the Pirates will trade Mondi to a contender and keep Wilson, though we fear it may end up being the other way around.
Centerfield - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| NYY | Kenny | Lofton | L/L | 36 | 339 | .277 | .333 | .437 | .259 |
| PIT | Tike | Redman | L/L | 26 | 230 | .330 | .374 | .483 | .289 |
| BOS | Adam | Hyzdu | R/R | 31 | 63 | .206 | .320 | .333 | .227 |
| TOTAL | 632 | .289 | .347 | .443 | .267 |
Centerfield - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 5 | Tike | Redman | L/L | 27 | 525 | .299 | .360 | .446 | .274 |
| 56 | Tony | Alvarez | R/R | 25 | 429 | .305 | .352 | .450 | .271 |
| 66 | Chris | Singleton | L/L | 31 | 384 | .271 | .315 | .396 | .241 |
Tike Redman enters camp as the incumbent in centerfield. The former 5th round draftpick hit .330 last year after batting .224 the year before. ZiPS has him regressing a little from his huge gains last year, but Redman should continue to be a valuable player for the Pirates.
Statheads everywhere scratched their heads last year when Billy Beane signed Chris Singleton to be the everyday centerfielder. Our scalps ended up being justifiably bloody and raw, as Singleton could only manage a .301 on base percentage with 1 homerun. Singleton is likely to be Redman's backup and will see very little playing time unless Tike gets injured or slumps badly. There's also some questions about Singleton's health, namely about what is causing his dizzy spells.
Outfielder Tony Alvarez is one of the more valuable prospects in the Pirates organization. In his first season in AAA, Alvarez hit .298 with 9 homeruns in 349 at-bats. In order to become an everyday player, Alvarez needs to improve his batting eye, as he struck out 69 times but walked only 28 last season. Alvarez will likely start the season back in AAA, but should see some time with the big club by the time the season is over.
Addendum: After this preview was written, Chris Singleton was released because he failed his physical. This opens up a spot for another outfielder that can play center. Most of the outfielders on the roster do not have the range for the position, so Tony Alvarez's chances to make the team have improved, unless the Bucs are comfortable having J.J. Davis in centerfield. We wouldn't be surprised to see the Pirates snag someone off of waivers at the end of Spring Training.
Outlook: Although Tike Redman is likely to regress a little from last season, centerfield should be a source of slight improvement for the Pirates, as Kenny Lofton and Adam Hyzdu did not have particularly successful seasons with the Bucs in 2003. If Alvarez can prove that he is worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup, either he or Redman may be sent to a team looking for a centerfielder.
Leftfield - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| SDP | Brian | Giles | L/L | 32 | 358 | .299 | .430 | .521 | .324 |
| PIT | Jason | Bay | R/R | 24 | 79 | .291 | .423 | .506 | .317 |
| TOTAL | 437 | .298 | .429 | .518 | .323 |
Leftfield - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | GPA |
| 31 | Luke | Allen | L/R | 25 | 474 | .274 | .342 | .373 | .247 |
| 38 | Jason | Bay | R/R | 25 | 420 | .283 | .389 | .476 | .294 |
| 26 | J.J. | Davis | R/R | 25 | 413 | .271 | .334 | .487 | .272 |
Canadian Jason Bay was acquired with pitcher Oliver Perez and a PTBNL in the deal that sent Brian Giles to San Diego. Bay had shoulder surgery in November, but is expected to be able to play on opening day. If he cannot play, expect to see Mondesi shift to leftfield and Craig Wilson start in right. A healthy Jason Bay will greatly help the Pirates, as he hit .303 with 20 homers and 24 steals last season for the AAA Portland Beavers. Expect to see Bay in leftfield for the Pirates for many years to come.
Outfielder J.J. Davis is likely to make the team, simply because he is out of options. The former 1st round draftpick hit .284 with 26 homers and 23 steals last season with AAA Nashville, so he deserves the opportunity. There's at least half a dozen teams that could use him as a fourth outfielder, so we can't imagine he'll pass through waivers.
Luke Allen has played both the outfield and third base in the minor leagues. He's had two very short cups of coffee with the Dodgers and Rockies, and barring a flurry of trades or injuries, he's unlikely to get more than that with the Pirates.
Outlook: Last year the Pirates had Brian Giles. This year they don't. Despite his age, Jason Bay is a terrific prospect, but in the short run, expect a steep decline in production coming out of left field.
Pitchers
Starting Five - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | G | GS | IP | ERA | W | L | SV | BB | BB/9 | HR | HR/9 | K | K/9 | K/BB |
| PIT | Kip | Wells | R/R | 26 | 31 | 31 | 197.3 | 3.28 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 76 | 3.5 | 24 | 1.1 | 147 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| CLE | Jeff | D'Amico | R/R | 27 | 29 | 29 | 175.3 | 4.77 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 42 | 2.2 | 23 | 1.2 | 100 | 5.1 | 2.4 |
| PIT | Josh | Fogg | R/R | 26 | 26 | 26 | 142.0 | 5.26 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 40 | 2.5 | 22 | 1.4 | 71 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| STL | Jeff | Suppan | R/R | 28 | 21 | 21 | 141.0 | 3.57 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 | 2.0 | 11 | 0.7 | 78 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| PIT | Kris | Benson | R/R | 28 | 18 | 18 | 105.0 | 4.97 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 36 | 3.1 | 14 | 1.2 | 68 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| TOTAL | 125 | 125 | 760.6 | 4.28 | 44 | 50 | 0 | 225 | 2.7 | 94 | 1.1 | 464 | 5.5 | 2.1 |
Starting Five - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | G | GS | IP | ERA | W | L | SV | BB | BB/9 | HR | HR/9 | K | K/9 | K/BB |
| 32 | Kip | Wells | R/R | 27 | 33 | 30 | 182.0 | 4.30 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 67 | 3.3 | 18 | 0.9 | 142 | 7.0 | 2.1 |
| 19 | Rick | Reed | R/R | 38 | 31 | 28 | 172.0 | 4.60 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 30 | 1.6 | 27 | 1.4 | 96 | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| 27 | Josh | Fogg | R/R | 27 | 35 | 27 | 160.0 | 4.72 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 49 | 2.8 | 21 | 1.2 | 98 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| 34 | Kris | Benson | R/R | 29 | 26 | 26 | 159.0 | 4.47 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 59 | 3.3 | 18 | 1.0 | 119 | 6.7 | 2.0 |
| 48 | Oliver | Perez | L/L | 22 | 28 | 28 | 156.0 | 4.79 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 74 | 4.3 | 23 | 1.3 | 161 | 9.3 | 2.2 |
| TOTAL | 153 | 139 | 829.0 | 4.57 | 45 | 51 | 0 | 279 | 3.0 | 107 | 1.2 | 616 | 6.7 | 2.2 |
Three of the Pirates starting five are back again this year, including ace of the staff Kip Wells. The 10-9 record Wells sported last year is not indictive of how well he pitched last season; had he been with the Red Sox, he might have won 20. ZiPS is quite pessimistic about how well Wells should pitch next year, as his ERAs for the last two seasons have been 3.58 and 3.28. We expect Wells to post another sub-4 ERA this season.
Former 1st overall draftpick Kris Benson hopes to bounce back from injuries that have seen him pitch only 235 innings over the last four years for the Bucs. Part of the problem may have been that Kris was in no rush to return to the mound, as he'd rather stay home with his distractingly attractive wife. If the Pirates are to go anywhere this year, they need Benson to revert back to his 2000 form. If Kris does get off to a hot start while the rest of the team flounders, don't be surprised to see him traded to a contender, as he'll be a free agent at the end of the season.
Starter Josh Fogg regressed from his quality 2002 season, to post an ERA of 5.26 last year. ZiPS believes that Fogg will improve somewhat in 2004, but if he doesn't, there are quite a few arms in the system that could take his place.
Lefthander Oliver Perez should stick in the fourth or fifth spot of the rotation. Perez, who was acquired in the Brian Giles deal, has a major league ERA of 4.67 in 39 starts, all but five of which were with the Padres. He's posted good, but not spectacular numbers in the minors, but given that he does not turn 23 until August, he still has time to develop into a quality starter.
Former replacement player Rick Reed has signed a minor league deal with the Pirates, and will likely be the 5th starter. It's hard to see what Reed brings to the table as he was 6-12 with a 5.07 ERA for the division winning Minnesota Twins last season. His sole purpose on the Bucs seems to be keep the far more qualified Ryan Vogelsong in middle-relief or AAA.
If one of the starters falters or is traded, Ryan Vogelsong will likely become the 5th starter. Vogelsong was acquired along with Armando Rios in the ill-fated trade that sent Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal to the Giants. After a great deal of confusion, MLB decided that Vogelsong still has one option remaining and thus is likely to start the season in AAA.
Salomon Torres started 16 games and appeared in 25 more as a reliever. Torres will likely be used as a longman and occasional spot starter again this season, though it is unlikely he'll start more than a handful of games this year. Torres has already tweaked his hamstring in spring training, but it's nothing major.
Although he has started 66 games in the major leagues, the 30 year old Blake Stein is a longshot to stick with the Pirates, though he will be getting at least one start in spring training.
Some of the starting pitchers in camp are a few years away from making significant contributions. Sean Burnett was drafted 19th overall in 2000, and was 14-6 with the AA Altoona Curve in 2003. Burnett will not turn 22 until September 17th, so look for him to spend most of this year between AA and AAA, with the possibility of a start or two with the Pirates when rosters expand in September. Burnett has been compared to Jimmy Key. High praise indeed!
Ian Snell, also known as the pitcher formerly known as Ian Oquendo went a combined 14-4 between A-ball Lynchburg and AA Altoona. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in A ball last year was nearly 4 to 1. He's been a starter in the minor leagues, but Pirates manager McClendon has compared him to Flash Gordon.
While we're on the subject of comparisons, McClendon has compared John VanBenschoten to Bret Saberhagen. Given that Saberhagen was a fulltime big-league starter at the age of 20, whereas John VanBenschoten turns 24 on April 13th and has yet to pitch an inning in the bigs. The 2001 1st round draftpick (notice a trend?) split the 2003 season between Lynchburg and Altoona, with a combined record of 13-7. He's only started 17 games at the AA level, so we would not be surprised to see him start the season in Altoona, but he should be in Nashville by midseason.
Burnett, Benson, and VanBenschoten are not the only former 1st round draftpicks in camp, as 1999 1st rounder Bobby Bradley. Bradley missed the 2001 and 2002 seasons as he had "reconstructive elbow surgery", and missed some time last year with shoulder problems. As such, he has not pitched beyond the Carolina League, and is a long way from the Major Leagues.
If that wasn't enough, the Pirates have also invited Paul Maholm their 1st round draftpick from 2003 to spring training. Has anyone told the Pirates that draft picks can be used on position players?
Outlook: Kip Wells may be the only Pirate who both starts and finishes the season in the rotation for the Pirates. Reed and Benson could be traded in midseason, and Perez and Fogg could be moved to middle relief if they do not perform. A 2005 rotation of Wells, Perez, Burnett, VanBenschoten and Fogg or Vogelsong looks likely. ZiPS projects the rotation to be worse this year, but since it seems overly pessimistic about Kip Wells, the performance of the 2004 crew should match that of 2003.
Bullpen - 2003 Stats
| 2004 Team | First | Last | B/T | Age | G | GS | IP | ERA | W | L | SV | BB | BB/9 | HR | HR/9 | K | K/9 | K/BB |
| PIT | Salomon | Torres | R/R | 31 | 41 | 16 | 121.0 | 4.76 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 3.1 | 19 | 1.4 | 84 | 6.2 | 2.0 |
| STL | Julian | Tavarez | L/R | 30 | 64 | 0 | 83.7 | 3.66 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 2.9 | 1 | 0.1 | 39 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| PIT | Brian | Meadows | R/R | 27 | 34 | 7 | 76.3 | 4.72 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1.3 | 8 | 0.9 | 38 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| PIT | Joe | Beimel | L/L | 26 | 69 | 0 | 62.3 | 5.05 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 4.8 | 7 | 1.0 | 42 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| PIT | Brian | Boehringer | S/R | 34 | 62 | 0 | 62.3 | 5.49 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 4.3 | 11 | 1.6 | 47 | 6.8 | 1.6 |
| BOS | Scott | Sauerbeck | R/L | 31 | 53 | 0 | 40.0 | 4.05 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 5.6 | 5 | 1.1 | 32 | 7.2 | 1.3 |
| TB | Mike | Williams | R/R | 33 | 40 | 0 | 37.3 | 6.27 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 22 | 5.3 | 5 | 1.2 | 20 | 4.8 | 0.9 |
| STL | Mike | Lincoln | R/R | 28 | 36 | 0 | 36.3 | 5.20 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 3.2 | 5 | 1.2 | 28 | 6.9 | 2.2 |
| PIT | Nelson | Figueroa | R/R | 29 | 12 | 3 | 35.3 | 3.31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3.3 | 8 | 2.0 | 23 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| PIT | Mark | Corey | R/R | 28 | 22 | 0 | 30.3 | 5.34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.6 | 27 | 8.0 | 2.5 |
| PIT | Oliver | Perez | L/L | 21 | 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 5.87 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4.7 | 2 | 0.8 | 24 | 9.4 | 2.0 |
| MON | Pat | Mahomes | R/R | 32 | 9 | 1 | 22.3 | 4.84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4.8 | 2 | 0.8 | 13 | 5.2 | 1.1 |
| PIT | Ryan | Vogelsong | R/R | 25 | 6 | 5 | 22.0 | 6.55 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3.7 | 1 | 0.4 | 15 | 6.1 | 1.7 |
| KC | Dennys | Reyes | R/L | 26 | 12 | 0 | 10.3 | 10.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7.9 | 1 | 0.9 | 11 | 9.6 | 1.2 |
| PIT | Mike | Gonzalez | R/L | 25 | 16 | 0 | 8.3 | 7.56 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6.5 | 4 | 4.3 | 6 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
| LAD | Duaner | Sanchez | R/R | 23 | 6 | 0 | 6.0 | 16.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 3.0 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.0 |
| PIT | John | Grabow | L/L | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 9 | 16.2 | 0.0 |
| NYY | Jim | Mann | R/R | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | 10.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.3 | 1 | 5.3 | 1 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| TOTAL | 494 | 37 | 683.4 | 5.06 | 31 | 37 | 44 | 277 | 3.6 | 84 | 1.5 | 462 | 6.1 | 1.7 |
Bullpen - 2004 Projections
| Uni | First | Last | B/T | Age | G | GS | IP | ERA | W | L | SV | BB | BB/9 | HR | HR/9 | K | K/9 | K/BB |
| 22 | Ryan | Vogelsong | R/R | 26 | 29 | 25 | 142.0 | 3.99 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 48 | 3.0 | 13 | 0.8 | 116 | 7.4 | 2.4 |
| 72 | Willis | Roberts | R/R | 29 | 48 | 8 | 95.0 | 4.74 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 39 | 3.7 | 10 | 0.9 | 67 | 6.3 | 1.7 |
| 97 | Joe | Beimel | L/L | 27 | 54 | 8 | 90.0 | 4.80 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 40 | 4.0 | 9 | 0.9 | 55 | 5.5 | 1.4 |
| 41 | Brian | Boehringer | S/R | 35 | 62 | 0 | 70.0 | 4.50 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 4.1 | 7 | 0.9 | 57 | 7.3 | 1.8 |
| 60 | Jose | Mesa | R/R | 38 | 56 | 0 | 68.0 | 4.50 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.8 | 46 | 6.1 | 1.6 |
| 43 | Mike | Johnston | L/L | 25 | 34 | 4 | 63.0 | 4.57 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 4.3 | 5 | 0.7 | 44 | 6.3 | 1.5 |
| 50 | Jason | Boyd | R/R | 31 | 52 | 0 | 63.0 | 4.86 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 4.0 | 7 | 1.0 | 44 | 6.3 | 1.6 |
| 57 | Juan | Acevedo | R/R | 34 | 55 | 0 | 59.0 | 4.73 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 3.8 | 5 | 0.8 | 40 | 6.1 | 1.6 |
| 76 | Mark | Guthrie | R/L | 38 | 63 | 0 | 46.0 | 5.09 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 4.7 | 6 | 1.2 | 37 | 7.2 | 1.5 |
| TOTAL | 453 | 45 | 696.0 | 4.56 | 38 | 44 | 0 | 295 | 3.8 | 68 | 0.9 | 506 | 6.5 | 1.7 |
Trying to project saves is a fool's errand, so ZiPS has decided to avoid the matter entirely. At any rate, this is an ugly, ugly group. Jose Mesa enters camp as the likely closer. Yes, the same Jose Mesa who had an ERA of 6.52 last year. If that isn't bad enough, Juan Acevedo could be the setup man for the Bucs. Yes, the same Juan Acevedo who was run out of the Skydome and Yankee Stadium. Other potential candidates for the role of setupman are righty Brian Boehringer and lefty Mark Guthrie. ZiPS isn't particularly optimistic about the performance of any of these four, particularly the 38 year old Guthrie.
The closer of the future would appear to be Mike Johnston. In his first season as a reliever, Johnston recorded an ERA of 2.12 with 27 walks and 65 strikeouts over 72 innings. There has been some talk of Johnston starting the season with the Pirates, but a more prudent course of action would be to let Johnston perfect his craft in AAA.
Another possibility for closer of the future is John Grabow, who split time between AA Altoona and AAA Nashville last season. Grabow's minor league stats aren't as impressive as Johnston's, but Grabow is closer to the major leagues, and will likely earn a spot in the Pirate bullpen before Johnston does.
Outlook: The 2004 bullpen may be better than last years, in the same way having your car stolen may be better than losing a toe in an industrial accident. The Pirates have quite a few decent arms in the minor league system, so the bullpen shouldn't be this lousy forever.
There are quite a few pitchers in camp who do not project to start the season in the rotation or the bullpen. Here are their projections:
