Congratulations, Lucas.

I'd vote for a spring wedding, personally.

I'm sorry to hear that, Scott. I got married on New Year's Eve, nine blissful years ago. That's nine blissful years AGO, mind you.

(Seriously, congrats.)

Congratulations.

Try to rig it so that your honeymoon falls on Labour Day week. It's my theory that almost nobody takes vacations that week, and the weather's still decent.

Congratulations, Scott. I assume the engagement is to a woman; I hope it's to a human being. In any case, the future Mrs. Lucas is very lucky.

Saving for and planning a wedding is a major, major undertaking that is best done with at least 12 months' notice. So I vote for spring, even though fall is my favourite season and my wife and I were married in September.

Good luck!

Congrats. I think it is less your decision and more of your fiances decision. If she wants to get married in the spring or autumn, I don't think you will get to far with trying to change her mind. It is my experience that woman have long ago planned their wedding days.

Maybe the best player in baseball could arrange for you to be married at home plate at Yankee Stadium, provided you would not throw up on the spot.

Congratulations. But I strongly disagree with Matthew E's suggestion.
My cousin got married on labour day weekend two years ago, and it pissed just about everybody off. No one wanted to leave their house/friends/cottage/beach that weekend to go away for a wedding. This is especially true of any guests that will be attending school in the fall.

Ah, but the honeymoon doesn't have to immediately follow the wedding. In fact, there are many reasons why you might not want it to.

Congratulations, Scott. I'm sure you and your bride would enjoy a spring honeymoon in Arizona, watching a little Cactus League baseball.

How much is the deposed Dan Evans to blame for the Dodgers’ current situation, and what can new GM Paul DePodesta do NOW to improve the team so late in the offseason?

Dan Evans got a raw deal. He's not to blame at all; most of what's wrong out there was a Kevin Malone production, and Evans didn't get a fair chance to finish what he had started. I'm not knocking Paul DePodesta, but he's inheriting a lot better situation than Evans did.

What can he do about 2004? Aggressively shop Adrian Beltre and Odalis Perez, flip Juan Encarnacion, waive Todd Hundley, keep restocking the farm, and spend whatever it takes to get a real leadoff man and a right-handed banger. It's another reason DePo has landed in a sweet spot; he won't be held responsible if the team isn't in contention, but it won't take a miracle to get back in the picture for 2005.

I am reasonably confident that she is a human being, and a woman, though I have no DNA tests to prove it. I'll demand one when I see her tonight. But if it turns out she's not a female or even a human, I'll probably just roll with it.

The wedding will not be on a holiday for the reason noted by Paul D.

In a small bit of good news for Texas fans, the Rangers locked up Hank Blalock through his arbitration years with 5 and $15. Per-year terms undisclosed, but I assume it's pretty heavily back-ended. They may try the same with Michael Young and would like to with Teixeira, but Boras clients like Teixeira are loathe to pass up arbitration-determined salaries.

I wonder if DePodesta can sucker a team into trading for LoDuca, with said team thinking they're getting the 2001 version instead of the 2002-2003 version. Too bad for DePodesta that Bill Bavasi is already awash in catchers.

Anybody think the Jays can become one of those plucky-underdog-Cinderella teams that capture the imaginations of everyone in North America this year? Obviously, Boston and New York are the favourites in the division, and many people also think Baltimore has moved ahead of Toronto.

But if the Jays can take advantage of their first-half schedule and hang on to first place for any length of time, there could be a groundswell of popularity. Certainly the Jays fit this role better than the Red Sox. And if it does work out like that, it might trickle down to people in Toronto, who may therefore go out and take in a few games themselves.

Congratulations, Scott! I think you should choose a date based on the weather. Seriously. Nobody likes a wet bride or a heatstroked groom: try to avoid the rainy season and the hottest weeks. I also suggest avoiding proximity to either of your birthdays; you don't want to run through all your future gift ideas around the same time. Steering clear of long weekends will indeed increase your guest list substantially. Finally, don't choose a date too far in the future; she may infer things from your choice that you would rather she did not infer.

Other suggestions: the two of you will disagree on the guest list; split the disagreements evenly so that each of you has made concessions, and don't get uptight over it. Choose a best man and/or MC (may be the same person) early and delegate as many details as possible to him; your fiancee should be doing the same with her maid of honour. If she wants you to go dress-shopping with her, go, have an opinion, but let her (and her friends) make the final call. And if you can afford it, get the wedding videotaped: you won't remember 90% of what happens afterwards, and you'll want to experience all of it.

Congratulations. I am just heading towards my wedding on May 15. We got engaged last February. We went with the theme that a longer engagement was a good idea for saving money for the wedding. The plan has one major flaw in it. With the extra time your fiance will dream up more ways to spend the extra money! Kidding aside, my best guess is that your fiance will tell you when the best time is to get married and you will happily agree (I certainly did!).

Jordan - how many weddings have you had exactly?

Congrats Lucas, like Nigel, I'm also only a few months away from my wedding (June 12).

I also suggest avoiding proximity to either of your birthdays;

Oops...I should have known Jordan's suggestion a year ago, my birthday is the day before the wedding. As for planning itself, I'm pretty much just in charge of the phone calls-she's got all the main decision-making. That way I feel important, but I know my place. I guess it just depends on how much you care about the specifics. I didn't particularly care about them, so the phone and I got to know each other quite well.

Anyone here besides me catch Shulman and Martinez on the FAN tonight?

I swear, if TSN got those two back together for a few games, I'd forgive them for shoving Rod Black and Dave Randorf down my throat...

OK. Heres my latest stroke of genious. The Blue Jays offer Greg Maddux a one year contract for 5 million and a whack of bonuses. They ask Mr. Maddux if he is interested in taking a run at the Yankies and Red Sox.

They will probably make money wheather he signs or not. Either way they gain respect from the rest of the baseball world for their chutzpa, a trait that seems essential to compete in the AL east.

If he does sign the Jays have just sold out all the Yank and Sox series - lets hope to the local fans. If he doesn't sign they have sold more tickets without doing anything to their finances.

J.P. sells the move as a way of taking one of the two teams (pray it's the Yankies) out of the playoffs. Who in North America, outside of Red Sox and Yankie nations, is not going to cheer for the Jays?

Lets think of it as a poker game. The Y and RS have raised the stakes to nigh biblical proportions. Why can't the Blue Jays up the ante a bit to show their in the game too. And whose bet is the most economical.

We as Canadians can keep our facade high mindedness. We can claim to be above such macho bravado and blame it all on J. P.'s East coast attitude.

There are other consequences that come of such a move. What does George do next? How do the Red Sox respond? Can we get the rest of the league into the no wildcard mentality?

Well to hell with what you think. I like it.

Cheers,
jason

Shulman is a pretty darn good announcer. One of the best around-at multiple sports too. Anyone see the college basketball game about a month ago at Indiana where they had '70s night? They used all the on-screen effects from the '70s and Dickie V and Shulman dressed up too. Shulman had a hilarious hairpiece on...quite funny.

Does anyone recall why DePodesta turned down the Jays offer to become GM?

What did Dan and Buck have to say? Were they in conversation with McCowan? Was there any mention of the Jays?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1737077
Thomas, DePodesta spoke on this very issue in an interview with Rob Neyer last March. It was linked to in his current article about the DePodesta signing, aptly titled "Moneyball Goes Hollywood" (COMN for link). I've pasted the relevant points below.

Neyer: I've been wanting to ask you for a long time, what kind of guy has the courage to turn down a GM job?

DePodesta: (Chuckling ... ) Well, when I got the offer from the Blue Jays, I was pretty happy here. This just wasn't a situation I was dying to get out of. I felt there were still some things to accomplish here, and I also felt that if I waited, I'd be better in another year, or another two years.

Dan O'Dowd told me -- when I was first working in Cleveland -- he said, "One thing to be aware of, when you're a GM candidate, is that there are three different possibilities: you're not ready, or you're ready to survive, or you're ready to succeed."

You have to be ready to survive, or your career can end almost immediately. Ultimately, what you want is to be ready to succeed, right from day one. When the Blue Jays offered me the job, I definitely felt like I was ready to survive. I felt like I was on the cusp of being ready to succeed, but I knew that if I waited another year -- now it's been a year-and-a-half -- then I could really hit the ground running.

And I did want to wait for the right job rather than the first job.

Neyer: What is the "right job"?

DePodesta: That's hard to pin down, because circumstances change. I think it's a combination of ownership, and resources, and even geography. But all those elements can change, even geography because teams get new stadiums, and then you say, "Hey, I'd love to be there now, with that kind of a ballpark."

That obviously greatly affects resources, and ownership always affects resources and of course your working relationship. Up to this point, I always felt like I should be willing to go anywhere to do anything, especially if I could be around great people. But when you make that last step? When I make that decision, I want to be there for a long time. I hope to be there as long as I want to be there, like Sandy (Alderson) was here, and John (Hart) in Cleveland, or even John Schuerholz in Atlanta.

Congrats Scott, as someon who is getting married next weekend I cant even begin to tell you what you have gotten yourself into.:) The winter wedding is great, no problems with booking a place for the reception, great deals, limos are easy and it dosent interfere with baseball season. Maddux to the Cubs, should be announced tomorrow. Tonight I had the pleasure of arguing with a Buffalo radio sports announcer on the merits of Derek Jeter the great, clutch shortstop. When I mentioned that Jeter happened to be one of the worst defensive players for that position he pointed out the 3 world championships, dating Mariah Carey and his huge contract as reasons why I was crazy.

Hi everyone,

I'm the fiance in question. Thanks for all of the congratulations and suggestions. I of course love the ones where I can make all of the decisions!!

When I mentioned that Jeter happened to be one of the worst defensive players for that position

First, let me offer you my condolences for getting into a debate with a Buffalo sports radio host. I'm imagining a typically awful shock jock, only with a Buffalo accent...(shudders)

But hey, let's not get carried away with the Jeter-bashing. As an initial point, I think we can agree that he's overrated, but that his defence has also deteriorated -- meaning he used to be a better defender.

Bearing in mind that he's steadily declined across the board, I think it's fair to say the following about his glove over his career:

1. He's been pretty good to his right (in the hole).
2. He's been awful to his left (up the middle).
3. He's had a strong throwing arm.
4. He's had below-average hands.
5. He's been excellent as a cutoff man -- quick and accurate on the relay.
6. He's been average at positioning himself.
7. He's usually made the correct play.

He's obviously not a legendary gloveman. But being "overrated" doesn't make him a horrible player, and certainly doesn't mean he's always been a bad defender. When you throw in the fact that he's been a very good offensive player for a shortstop, as much as Red Sox fans would disagree...he doesn't "suck." He's below-average as a defender now, yes. But not one of the worst, especially during the championship run.

Speaking of athletes generally accepted to be overrated, I've won five or six bets from people that can't believe me when I tell them that fellow pariah-of-the-sports-cognoscenti Vince Carter once averaged 27.6 ppg on 46% shooting (2000-01).

It is done...

The AP is reporting that Greg Maddux and the Cubs have agreed to terms on a three-year, $24 million contract.
Scott Boras hasn't lost his touch. Unless there was an unreported offer from the Dodgers or another team, it doesn't appear that anyone else was offering Maddux more than $12 million over two years. Maybe he's still worth $8 million per year -- he's not a bad bet at that price for this season -- but there was no reason for the Cubs to go this far.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpa2lpNnFzBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwN0bQ--?slug=ap-cubs-maddux&prov=ap&type=lgns
COMN for the Maddux article. From it: "The Cubs can void the final year of the deal if Maddux doesn't pitch a preset number of innings in 2005."

The Cubs are going to be very, very tough to beat this year. I think they may push 97-100 wins.

Now that Maddux is on the Cubs I wonder how available Juan Cruz is?

And now that Maddux has signed with the Cubs I have a completed Cubs preview that needs to be revised.

yahoo fantasy baseball is now up and running. FYI.

how many weddings have you had exactly?

Just one ... but I'm working on a second career as a wedding planner, in hopes that it'll land me that dreamy Matthew McConaughey. :-)

There's now a separate thread on the Maddux signing.

And BTW, the Rangers locking up Blalock for five years at an average of $3M per is brilliant (I'm assuming they're buying out some arbitration and free-agent years?). He can hit and hit for power, and his minor-league record demonstrates an excellent batting eye that will soon surface in the big leagues. This is similar to the Jays getting Wells and Hinske for five years at pretty much the same amount, and I think it'll start paying dividends for Texas this season.

http://theraindrops.weblogs.us/archives/015441.html
COMN for a nice summary of a number of defensive metrics, among them UZR and Win Shares, in a easy to digest form. The highlights from 2003: Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra and Chris Woodward were all about average shortstops, with Jose Valentin at the top of the pile; Orlando Hudson was arguably the best defensive second baseman in the majors, with Polanco, Ellis and Kennedy also making cases; Carlos Delgado was an average first baseman; Eric Hinske, well you know; Vernon Wells was an average defensive centerfielder, while Mike Cameron, Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones were the best, and Jose Cruz Jr. and Richard Hidalgo were the cream of the rightfielders.

It'd be interesting to see the Defensive Regression Analysis numbers, but since they correlate well with the other numbers, I doubt that the rankings would change significantly.

Congrats to all that are getting married. I only have one piece of advice for you all. Go and get married at a tropical island. I got married on the Island of St. Lucia and it was the best decision I ever made. The resort sets you up with a wedding coordinator and you just let your bride to be go wild. It cuts down on all the possible fights you might have about the wedding planning. When you get back to where you live through a huge party that you will actually be able to enjoy.

As far as the Jays are concerned I can not remember the last time I was this excited about an upcoming season. I think there will be some big suprises and the Jays will finish in second place. Who they beat to get second is irrelevant. Either the Yankees or Soxs will implode under the pressure and our Jays are primed to pounce.

Jordan, as this was Blalock's first full season, the Rangers are only buying out his contract through his arbitration years, not any free agent years. ie, exactly the same case as Wells and Hinske last offseason. Actually, you'd have to think that those two contracts were template on which the Rangers and Blalock began their discussions.

http://www.canada.com/sports/football/story.html?id=A9721877-2C3D-40AA-BABB-1E512C46D842
The producer of one of the most evil things on the planet -- AstroTurf -- is going out of business. Their shrinking market share (thanks to FieldTurf and similar products) was most likely the primary cause. COMN

I had no idea Reed Johnson fared so poorly in defensive metrics.

I had no idea Reed Johnson fared so poorly in defensive metrics.

Reed is going to come up short compared to other right fielders, but he has a better first step, takes a better route and makes harder, more accurate throws -- to the correct base -- than Shannon Stewart. Any system which doesn't reflect that is flawed, in my opinion.

FoxSports.com's Dayn Perry (also an author for Baseball Prospectus) continued inching his way to the top of his Prospects List. Joining the already stacked lineup of Jays prospects in the bottom 50, are Guillermo Quiroz (#43, two spots behind Navarro) and, surprisingly high, Russ Adams (#47). The bottom 60 now includes 6 Jays (with at least two more to come, in McGowan and Rios, joining the ranks in the top 40):

43. Quiroz
48. Adams
51. Vermilyea
55. Gross
76. Vito
80. Arnold

If you think that ranking the top 100 prospects is easy, check out OnDeckBaseball' Top 500! Mcgowan and Rios highlight the list (which is almost completely derived by formulae, not scouting reports, I believe) Ranked at #12 and #13 respectively. Also, the Jays score a #1 in the organizational rankings...
Come to think of it, these rankings (unlike some of their other rankings) can't be based solely on a formula, since Chi-Hung Cheng (who hasn't pitched a single inning yet in North America) comes out ahead of Vermilyea, #305 to #343.

Lists like these are difficult and challenging, and I don't begrudge anyone the task of ranking 500 players and 30 organizations. But I'm not sure it's right to give Houston the last-place position. It's true that the Astros' minor-league system needs restocking, but at the higher levels, there are some very interesting players, from blue-chippers like Jason Lane and Carlos Hernandez to prospects in a hurry like Taylor Buchholz and Chris Burke. Plus, the 'Stros have an embarrassment of big-league-ready pitchers (e.g., Kirk Saarloos, Brandon Duckworth, Jeriome Robertson) who have no place in a loaded rotation, and who can and should be dealt away for young, high-ceiling positional prospects.

In addition to Rios and McGowan yet to come I think Bush, Hill and possibly League have a chance of being in the top 40. The only basis for this is their high ratings on other lists and considering guys like Adams and Vermilyea making the list in their absence.

But I'm not sure it's right to give Houston the last-place position.

Just as questionable, is having the Oakland A's ranked LAST among AL organizations... while the same set of criteria is used to rank the Jays FIRST?! I'd like to know what these criteria are!

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1077059708298&call_pageid=969907739730&col=Columnist980457773498
Now, I don't think Griffin is knowledgable, but he contradicts himself today:

...the Jays may be better on the field than they were last season...

[...]

The Jays have remained about the same in talent while others have loaded up.

COMN for the article. Or, do the smart thing, and don't waste your time with him.

The Jays have remained about the same in talent while others have loaded up.

I read this. And I have to say I really don't understand how Griffin, or anyone, can believe this.

Another 100 million dollar man? Apparently, Pujols is ready to sign for 7 years and an even 100 million. It averages to be just over 14 million per year. Does this bring down Delgado's potential salary in negotiations because Pujols is considered the better player and is oyunger? Or does Delgado's value remain above that because this is buying out Pujols' arbitration years? I would think that if Pujols can score 7/100 Delgado can be have for 2/22 or 3/30. I wouldn't go above 2/20, with a team option for a third year for no more than 12 million personally (if , say, the deadline to sign him was imminent - This season could change that).

kirk sarloos has no chance of being a starting pitcher for even a bad club like Detroit, the Astros do have very good depth in there starting rotation and may even have to farm out some pitchers who were productive last yr in the major league.

This deal, if it is replicated, is of great importance to small-to-medium market teams. Albert Pujols is simply the most valuable property in the game. The Cardinals brought him up at age 21, and will have at the end of the deal paid him about $101 million for 10 years, or about $10 million per year. In the end, the economics work out very well for the Cardinals, and would be good for a team with a payroll in the $50-$70 million range.

Let's say Alexis Rios or Guillermo Quiroz (or both) go bananas in Syracuse in the first half of the season, and the Jays are contemplating calling them up after the All-Star break. Let's say they do, and let them play out their non-arb years, when they perform very well, but not at Pujols' level of the last 3 years (who will?) Then Rios is signed for seven years at $85 million and Quiroz for 6 years at $70 million. It seems to me that this is a sustainable situation for a team with a $60 million payroll.

The significance of all this is that there are 2 sides to the issue of the appropriate time to call up a player, assuming that the player is ready. On the one hand, one wants to obtain their prime years at non-arb or early-arb prices. On the other hand, if a player is ready, he will reach a greater height at age 27 (on average) if he is brought up earlier. For a team's best players, it may be in the team's interest, as well as the player's interest, to call them up immediately when they are ready, rather than a half-season or full season later, provided one can sustainably purchase their early 20s-early 30s years.

This approach, if it is widely adopted, would have the side benefit of making the current approach of the Yankees, all talent purchase/no farm system, less tenable in the long run.

On a completely different note, Hinske, Woodward, and Hudson were among the few who reported early to camp. I take that as a good sign.

Here's a question - is Courtney the first-ever female to post on Da Box? My limited memory can't remember any others.

Heh. I don't know. That really was her, by the way. She greatly appreciated the congratulations and advice.

http://economics.about.com
Here's a question - is Courtney the first-ever female to post on Da Box? My limited memory can't remember any others.

My girlfriend posted about a year ago, picking the Dodgers to win the series. :)

Tom Wilson's mom (or mother in law) has posted a few messages.

Yeah, our demo skews just a little male.

Cheers,

Mike

We have a number of women who read regularly and one or two who post.

Most women who post to a board like this do so under pseudonyms. The reasons are simple... (1) they will usually be horndogged out of existence by idiots; and (2) others will jump up and down screaming and pointing about how a WOMAN IS POSTING HERE!!!! It's a rare person that wants to draw that much attention to themselves.

Craig - I hope you're not painting me as a #2!
On the contrary, I think it would be great to have more women posting in here. You know, diverse opinions and all.

I'm the fiance in question.

Actually, Courtney, you're the fiancee in question, whereas Scott is the fiance. But perhaps we all understand how the extra "E" is credited to a Rangers fan.

If you two are getting married in the Dallas area, my lovely bride of nearly seven years would probably have a whole bunch of helpful ideas. Here's my contribution: Don't get married in Dallas in August. Duh. It was hot.

Pete, hollering and pointing makes just as much noise whether you're pro or anti. But I'm not accusing anyone of driving people away, just trying to explain the phenomenon of the Secret Female Readership.

Craig...gotcha.
My internal monologue upon seeing the name was more along the lines of "Wow...cool".
My apologies for pointing it out.
I will slither quietly back to my pile of work...

Does The Cabal have any female membership?

I hate to break in here and actually talk about baseball, but I note that in today's Ask BA, Jim Calais discusses the Blue Jays farm system and ranks it number 8 overall.

Has anyone noticed that Alfonso Soriano has recently aged two years. That makes him roughly the same age as ARod...

Does The Cabal have any female membership?

Word on the street is that The Cabal is asexual.

The terms of my contract obligate me to point out that There Is No Cabal.

Gee, Craig, you give the impression that The Cabal doesn't exist.

Here's a thought for everyone.

"Orlando Hudson is the best second baseman in the American League East."

Discuss.

"Orlando Hudson is the best second baseman in the American League East."

Unless Bret Boone left the AL last night I'd have to go with him.

But after that I think you could make a case for Hudson. So trade him!!

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1077232210806&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064
Vernon Wells and Josh Towers come through loud and clear on steroid use. COMN. Good on them.

"Orlando Hudson is the best second baseman in the American League East."

Yes, without much competition. Reese/Bellhorn, Hairston/Roberts, Lugo/Blum and WhomeverthehellplayssecondfortheYanks don't really come close. Not only is Hudson the best second baseman in the AL East, he is really the only one any degree of job security for the upcoming season.

Actually Leigh, I think Sanchez or Perez will be the Tampa second baseman. Lugo probably nailed down the shortstop job last year, he was very impressive after coming over from the NL.

By the way, I observe that our wayward collegaue Aaron Gleeman passed 400,000 readers this morning. Congrats to him.

Has anyone found out what spring training games will be broadcast? I imagine The Fan will cover the weekend games once again, but I haven't seen anything on if the Jays website will be airing games during the week or if Sportsnet will be carrying any games at all.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/03top10s/mariners.html
My congrats to Gleeman and to Lucas belatedly.

BA has a report on what it calls Seattle's best prospect, Felix Hernandez, a 17 year old pitcher, with a classic repertoire and the early numbers to support the ranking. COMN. It sounds like he might end up in the majors by the time he's 20, a la Gooden and Saberhagen.

Ryan,

Sportsnet will be televising the March 6th game against the Yankees, the 27th game against Houston, and the game on the 29th against Minnie. As for the radio/internet, I have not heard anything but I assume it is the same as in year's past.

Interesting quote from Towers in the Star article:

"Hey, I don't take it ... but if Barry Bonds has his name and his face plastered all over the news like it is, you see the 73 home runs (he hit in 2001 to break Mark McGwire's record) and it just doesn't look good,"

I'm not quite sure what he's saying. Is he implying that Bonds is on something? Or is he just suggesting that testing will help prove Bonds' accomplishments are legit, separating the cheaters from the honest workers?

No, Ryan, I don't think so, since the context is about the BALCO investigation. Towers seems to me to be making the point that a bunch of guys very close to Bonds (and other superstars) are being raked over the coals right now, and that Bonds is in the news in the steroids story, and people are associating him with that, and THAT is, I think indusputably, bad for baseball.

Very bad.

Thanks for the info, Scott. With MLB's contract with RealPlayer ending and there not yet being a replacement in place, I'm not sure how that will impact the spring training broadcasts for the major league clubs. I haven't seen any mention of spring broadcasts through the official sites yet.

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2579
BP calls it "Basics", but I call it "early intermediate sabermetrics". COMN for an easy-to-understand description of a little more advanced material.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1740991
Playing SS and batting leadoff for your Texas Rangers, Alfonso Soriano? He's "open to change". COMN for the article.

I'm liking Towers more and more everyday. Frankly I get sick of seeing Sportsnet (not them in particular, just an example) and the guys after the games always ramble off the same catchphrases about 'giving the other team credit', 'we played hard', etc. etc. It's so 'Bull Durham'-ish it's almost sad. But Towers speaks his mind, and he doesn't mince words; few players in professional sports are candid about their thoughts, and even fewer of them look like complete idiots in the process (see John Rocker). I had a point to this, but it's late, and my brain isn't working.... dang....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1659478
Hijack: ESPN's Hot Stove heater for Feb 21 has a nice discussion of how MLB could do a better job of marketing itself. [COMN]

The article mentions a great many positives about players and the game. I found it heartwarming to read, especially with ST just getting underway and my hunger for play becoming so strong.

As I read news stories about players from various sources I do come across positive activities that players are involved in off the field. This article brought home to me that MLB isn't picking up on such things and promoting them itself. Could the Jays marketing do more to promote it's players by bring to light some of the activities that they participate in within both the Toronto community and/or they communities that the players call home? Maybe "Baseball North" doesn't have to be replaced, but could it be augmented by such stories? Wait... maybe they do. I'm in Vancouver and don't see the local promotions the Jays do in TO.

The article also has some strong comments about the kind of commisioner that could improve the game's image. I know that this is a topic that fans are already aware of, but it was interesting to hear the comments from a non-baseball source.

BTW, thanks for this great site.

Big Fred

http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/radio/st_schedule.jsp?display=off
Here is MLB's current schedule for internet ST game broadcasts [COMN]

As a related aside, I would like to say that baseball broadcasts over the internet have really increased my interest in the game over the last three years. Each of these years I have subscribed to MLB Gameday Audio, and I love being able to listen to any game live or in archive.

I get a kick out of the comparison of the various radio broadcast crews. I have started to listen to some teams just due to my enjoyment of the commentary.

While I'm on the internet I also have one of the game "tickers" on display (CBS Sportsnet is my current fav). It's great to have the running stats during the game, and being able to bring up player histories when "that guy sounds familiar... didn't he..." questions arise.

Finally, I think that the drama and suspense of baseball is very much increased by listening to, instead of watching, the game. For me the intensity of what will happen next is so much stronger when I'm not watching someone spitting sunflower shells or readjusting their equipment for the umpteenth time. Is baseball really a "radio" game, and not a "TV" game?

Big Fred

From the ESPN article Big Fred linked to:

When fans look at Selig, they see none of the good he has done, like expanded playoffs, interleague play and the 2002 labor agreement.

Expanded playoffs are okay, but anyone would have done that. 4 teams out of 26 (at the time, I believe) was not enough to satisfy fans.
Interleague play was good, but now seems unimportant.
The labour agreement? Don't get me started.

What has Selig done for the good of the game that another Commish wouldn't have? To phrase it the SABR way, what is his VARC (value above replacement commissioner)?

Inaugural Batter's Box Separated-At-Birth Contest:

I'll start with Carlos Tosca and new Reds skipper, Dave Miley (Image #11).

Can anyone come up with any other baseball (or other) SAB's?

Pete Walker and Mike Lowell, along with cousin Benito Santiago.

How about Danny Darwin and umpire Tim McClelland?

Carlos Delgado and that guy from Cool Runnings, Malik Yoba. They're not really similar, but it's the first one I thought of.

Crossing sports, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire and basketball coach George Karl.

Mike,

I take issue with some of James Click's points.

First up, the following table:

Metric   R-Squared   Standard Deviation 
AVG       0.1761           0.031 
OBP       0.3820           0.041 
SLG       0.4171           0.080 
BB %      0.5745           3.520
K %       0.6884           5.230
XBA %     0.4634           8.820
HR %      0.5751           1.730
ISO       0.5510           0.064

The figures in the standard deviation column make it look as if walk rate, strikeout rate, XBA rate, and HR rate are much more variable between hitters than are batting average, OBP, or SLG. Problem is, they're not. As far as I can tell, the differences are due entirely to the fact that some of his numbers are expressed as percentages (and therefore multiplied by 100.) Here's a less confusing representation of the same data:

Metric   R-Squared   Standard Deviation 
AVG       0.1761           0.031 
OBP       0.3820           0.041 
SLG       0.4171           0.080 
BB %      0.5745           0.035
K %       0.6884           0.052
XBA %     0.4634           0.088
HR %      0.5751           0.017
ISO       0.5510           0.064

Click doesn't get anything wrong per se, but his presentation of the data is confusing at best and disingenuous at worst. Especially in an article aimed at people who aren't terribly comfortable with statistics.

Secondly, r-squared values don't tell the whole story. Walk rate has a higher year-on-year coefficient of determination than batting average. Granted. But batting averages in a given year have a similar variability to walk rates, and each point of batting average contributes more to scoring than each point of walk rate. Click doesn't address this issue at all. In fact, I've never seen it addressed in anything that BP has ever published.

Another way of looking at this issue: Suppose that Bud Selig decrees that Milwaukee needs extra help in order to be competitive, so every player on the Brewers can call catcher's interference five times per year and trot to first base. The coefficient of determination of catcher's interference is then going to be very high, but the stat is still next to useless in player analysis.

I imagine that walk rate in year X still beats batting average in year X as a predictor of run scoring in year X+1, but I've never seen a good analysis done.

John

I've never looked at Old Blue Eyes or watched an Andy Griffith rerun the same way since my father said Don Knotts and Frnak Sinatra looked alike. I think it's like The Perfect Storm, the situation has to be perfect, but I can see some Sinatra in Mr. Roper ;-)

I've never looked at Old Blue Eyes or watched an Andy Griffith rerun the same way since my father said Don Knotts and Frnak Sinatra looked alike. I think it's like The Perfect Storm, the situation has to be perfect, but I can see some Sinatra in Mr. Roper ;-)

OT - Can anybody here name the movie satrring Don Knotts where he's in a haunted house. I can remmeber finding it hysterical when I was a real wee one (which wasn't *that* long ago ;-) ), but the name escapes me.

Sorry for the double post...

On Sportsnet's Spring Training report tonight, they mentioned that Lilly came to camp with a brace on his left wrist, but "should be ready for the start of the season." That's a new one!

David Schwimmer and Dave Andreychuk.

Wayne Gretzky and Princess Diana.

Inaugural Batter's Box Separated-At-Birth Contest

Jarrod Washburn and Alvin (from Alvin and the Chipmunks).

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0059221/
I think the movie with Don Knotts you're referring to is The Ghost and Mr. Chicken. (COMN for details)

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-bluejays&msg=4490.1&maxT=3
They had a discussion about this on the Jays forum a while ago about look-alikes. Msg. 15 is eerie, hot damn does Gord Ash look like Dr. Evil! COMN for the thread

I've never looked at Old Blue Eyes or watched an Andy Griffith rerun the same way since my father said Don Knotts and Frank Sinatra looked alike

I never realized it before. But they do.

Frank Sinatra

Don Knotts

I see a distinct resemblance. They ended up, of course, looking nothing at all alike.

http://www.canoe.ca/Slam040223/col_elliott-sun.html
A couple of nice articles in the Sun (COMN) and the Star about Hentgen & Halladay's friendships, and the examples they set for younger pitchers.

The Sun has this neat little quote from Halladay about past pitchers:

"Cory Lidle had his own ideas," Halladay said. "Joey Hamilton was only in it for the money. Pat? Pat's here to pitch."

You don't normally see that sort of thing.

Anyway, I'm really looking forward to going to Pat's first game at the Dome.

John, I agree that your presentation is far superior to Click's. I'm not sure that you've got the home run rate figure correct however. I am quite sure that the standard deviation of the home run rate is, if anything, higher than the XBH% and ISO.

Anyways, for me, what is interesting is the standard deviation of batting average on balls in play. It's easy to see what effect K rates and HR rates have on batter performance, but BABIP takes a little more work.

Lilly arrived at camp with a cast on his left wrist; I guess that'll add some spice to the games of March.

http://economics.about.com
I take issue with some of James Click's points.

Your analysis was terrific. Thanks!

What I can't figure out is why Click is using R^2 at all! In a one-variable model, the R^2 is just the correlation squared. It doesn't really make any difference at all, except that R^2 is lossy in that you don't know if you have positive or negative correlation. In this case, we should know a priori, so it doesn't matter. In other applications, though, it should.

Requiring an R^2 to be over 0.5 in a one-variable model is way too restrictive in most projection analyses as it requires a correlation above 0.71 in absolute terms. In doing financial analysis, getting a correlation above 0.3 in most cases will make you quite wealthy. :)

R-squared is easily the most abused measure in low-level statistical analysis, and BP is no exception. The worst I've seen there is some guy comparing R-squared across models with different functional forms. That's probably the biggest no-no in statistics there is, and any 2nd year undergrad stats class will drill into their students heads not to do that.

Cheers,

Mike

Mike Green: The standard deviation that I give for home run rate is simply Click's standard deviation divided by 100. (Same with BB, K, and XBH rates.)

There's no way that HR rate has a higher standard deviation than XBH rate. It quite likely does have a higher ratio of standard deviation to mean, which is probably what you meant. It would be nice if Click had included mean and stddev/mean data. (Why am I putting the onus on him? Because he's the one making inferences on the basis of dubious stats.)

Mike Moffatt: I'm the first to admit that my knowledge of stats is pretty sketchy. I imagine that the best way to resolve this issue would be to do a multivariate analysis on predictors of MLVR (or a good correlate like OPS or GPA.) In terms of salvaging Click's analysis, would the following method be sensible?

1. Take the year-on-year correlation (r) of the rate stat being measured.
2. Multiply it by the marginal contribution of that stat to run scoring
3. The product is the relationship between the value of the rate stat in a given year and the expected contribution of that rate stat to scoring in the next year.

It's always fun debating with you guys...

http://economics.about.com
1. Take the year-on-year correlation (r) of the rate stat being measured.
2. Multiply it by the marginal contribution of that stat to run scoring
3. The product is the relationship between the value of the rate stat in a given year and the expected contribution of that rate stat to scoring in the next year.

I'm not primarily a stats guy either, no matter what they try to do to me at work! :)

Nothing there jumps out at me as being absurd, but what exactly would this measure? (It's probably obvious but I'm pretty tired today).

RE: Multivariate analysis. The major problem with doing multivariate analysis on any set of baseball stats is the problem of multicollinearity. If you can find a way to get around that (or find that it's not too much of a problem), you can develop all sorts of useful models. The other problem you have is trying to choose a functional form for your model (other than taking the easy way out and assuming linearity, which most people do), and most comparison techniques will end up selecting the model with the most free parameters, which will likely end up overfitting the model. If you wanted to use a Bayesian approach, you could run a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sim (yuck!) on a few different models, but unless you like pulling your hair out, it's not something I'd recommend.

Sorry I can't be more specific.. I'm going to have to re-read through Click's piece again.

Cheers,

Mike

FWIW - BP has a roundtable discussion (for premium members) of their top 50 prospects, which the Jays apparently have 6 of. The top 5 seemed obvious to the Bauxites, but upon reading the preliminary list by Rany J (which will have some adjustments), he had Russ Adams at 32, above both Gross and Bush.

http://www.ajc.com/monday/content/epaper/editions/monday/sports_04933a45064b023600c1.html
Yawn. J.D. Drew is being held out of drills and is expected to miss some ST games. COMN.

Reading Drew's injury history made me think of a simple phrase "DH or DL". Harold Baines writ large.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/photo?slug=flsm10502231924.blue_jays_spring_flsm105&prov=ap
Looks like the Jays road uniforms are going to be conventional grey after all. There was a rumour on the Fanhome board that the Jays were tweaking them. COMN for a picture of Pat Hentgen sporting the new road pants.

After not liking the new road grey initially, it grew on me and now I'm disappointed it's gone.

http://www.foxsports.com/content/view?contentId=2168998
Ken Rosenthal: The Orioles' Brian Roberts and Jerry Hairston, the Brewers' Junior Spivey, the Blue Jays' Orlando Hudson, the Twins' Luis Rivas and the Reds' D'Angelo Jimenez are among the second basemen who could attract the Yankees' interest.

COMN for link

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/baseball/article/0,1406,KNS_318_2676696,00.html
Fairly good guide to the features of ST parks for anyone planning on making a trip to Florida. (comn)

By the way, is there any chance of the Box doing an interview with Donovan Santas, the Jays strength and conditioning coach this year? With a lot of talk about Hinske and Wells losing weight in the offseason, plus given the rather open nature of J.P.'s system, I'd like to find out more about what they might be doing differently with their players than say most clubs.

Mike Moffatt:

Nothing there jumps out at me as being absurd, but what exactly would this measure?

I was trying to come up with a coefficient that would relate the value of a statistic in a given year to the contribution of that statistic to scoring in the following year.

This probably makes a lot more sense with an example.

Suppose that the year-on-year correlation between walk rates is 0.5, that a player's walk rate in a given year is 0.05 BB/PA above average, and that each walk is worth 0.3 runs. (I'm pulling these numbers out of thin air.) Then the expected contribution of that player's walk rate to scoring (relative to a player with an average walk rate) in the next year would be 0.5*(0.3 R/BB)*(0.05 BB/PA) = 0.0075 R/PA. Which is 4 runs above average in a 500 PA season, if you're keeping score.

I'm not sure about the methodology, but this seems to me to be a better approach to measuring predictive value than Click's "statistical consistency."

John

Anybody do any ESPN drafts yet? I just did one of the demo drafts (12 teams, 7 rounds, 2 OF, 1 CI, 1 MI, 1 C, 2P). I had the third overall pick and managed to get Bonds, Rolen, V-Dub, Tim Hudson, Marcus Giles (a mistake pick...I meant to take Billy Wagner and wait on my MI...but it worked out in the end), Jason Kendall, and Trevor Hoffman. I really can't wait for the BBFL ;-)

Anybody with a little extra time should take a look at the New York papers today. It could just be the way the pictures are taken, but Jason Giambi's physique has been deflated considerably.

Scott, a few weeks ago I read an article that stated Giambi had set an off-season goal of improved conditioning to prevent further injury, or letting nagging injuries affect his game. If I remember correctly, the goal was for improved body fat ratio, and improved flexibility, at the expense of some muscle loss.

[I can't seem to find that article though...]

Jason Giambi's physique has been deflated considerably

He did need to lose weight, and he has been on a diet. He looked to be carrying 240+ pounds last year (he says 232, which I don't believe) and the extra weight probably didn't help his knees any. Towards the end of last season, he discussed his desire to slim down to help his knees.

He's also had surgery and rehab, and players (like everyone else) do tend to lose some weight during that. So I think that's a pretty good explanation, but who knows. Certainly if he were juicing, he would have gone off the juice when he realized he needed to lose weight... so either makes a good explanation.

ESPN story of Giambi and Sheffield.

Newsday actually has a series of pictures of Giambi throughout last season. I dunno, there are some pictures where it certainly looks like he could stand to lose some weight around the gut and chest, and others where he is pretty ripped. Anyway, if his goal was to shed muscle in exchange for increased flexibility, he looks to have achieved it.

Also, for those big into defensive statistics (Mike Green), Alan Schwarz did a piece in Sunday's New York Times that is worth the read. However, I believe a subscription is required to access the site.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/weekinreview/22schw.html

I'm really starting to get annoyed that many reporters seem to believe they have the right to bring up steroids any time a player experiences a weight change.

Gained weight? He must be on steroids.

Lost weight? He's coming off steroids, because he's afraid of being caught.

Players have been changing diets and workout routines for decades. If news organizations want to hire a personal trainer as a consultant to offer professional or medical opinions on players' physiques or workout regimens -- ie. "if I could get results like that naturally, I'd be a billionaire" -- then that's fine. But the automatic spectre of steroids is like assuming that because a player missed a day of practice it's because he must have been out raping somebody.

Scott, from the article you cited in the New York Times, complete with picture of Jeter jumping over a baserunner to attempt to complete a double play:

"Derek Jeter's prowess as the Yankees' shortstop is well known, but difficult to translate. Debating such things is a cherished pastime"

Every analyst that I am aware of who has studied the issue is satisfied that Derek Jeter has been a horrible defensive shortstop for at least 4 years. All of the defensive measures agree on this point. Mike Emeigh who is a fine, fine analyst on primer.com set out last year to evaluate defensive measures, and used Jeter as a test. His set of articles is well worth reading; the careful conclusion was that Jeter was indeed quite a bad fielder at this point in his career.

As a Jays' fan, I am delighted by articles such as this one. It will make it all the harder for the Yankees to switch Jeter's and Rodriguez' defensive assignments.