On the previous hijack I had mentioned the possibility of a 3 way deal with the Yankees, Angels and White Sox that was reported in the Chicago Tribune. Here are some of the possibilities, Angels get Jose Valentin and Paul Konerko plus a Yankees Prospect like a Robinson Cano, White Sox get Darin Erstad and Jarrod Washburn and a Yankees prospect(Cano, Arias, Proctor are some of the names) and New York gets Troy Glaus. The deal could be expanded that the Sox insist New York take Billy Koch and his 6.375 million contract off their hands as well. A deal with the with just the Sox and Yankees could be Valentin for prospects. Sorry for the previous incorrect post of the Yankees giving up no one which as Mike Moffatt pointed out would be great for them! Interesting stuff.

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
I know, but there's no way I'll be able to collect, so I'll let someone else be first.

Do the Yanks really still have prospects to trade? The Columbus lineup next year is going to be full of Little Leaguers and monkeys.

Mike : The HouseMartins ?

The prospects mentioned in the article were Ramirez, Cano, Depaula, Arias and Proctor.

Kristian, do you have a link to that article?
I thought the the article was just a suggestion.. by Phil Rogers maybe? But not an actual rumour. Just something he thought would be nice.

Sorry I do not know how to do links on this site but if you go to www.sportingnews.com and then to the MLB section you can find it in the rumors section which will link to the tribune article. Phil Rogers was the author of the column and he suggests that talks could really heat up in spring training if some of the players involved health concerns are settled.

Mike:I guess Gwyn beat me to it, but I will venture with this answer.

http://economics.about.com
Mike : The HouseMartins

You win!

I was expecting somebody say the Barenaked Ladies, who covered part of the song in "Hello City".

RE: The Yankees rumor. Click here to see the rumor. Personally, this doesn't make any sense to me, but what do I know?

Cheers,

Mike

http://economics.about.com
Yep, you're right Brent. Unfortunately, you came in fourth. Gwyn and Scott got it, along with a mystery reader who e-mailed me.

I'll still buy you a beer, tho. Meet me at the Spoke next week. :)

Cheers,

Mike

Re the Yankee rumour, the first five words are an enormous caveat:

"The Tribune's Phil Rogers reports..."

I am not sure the how likely this deal is of happening but it does make sense on the surface.A healthy Troy Glaus is better than almost all of the other options we have mentioned on previous threads. Erstad would stay in centerfield for the Sox and the Angels would get a firstbasemen plus a replacement for Glaus and a prospect. The White Sox want a starter and Washburn satisfies that need, they get a prospect and move Lee to first. Reed should be ready by the allstar break to take left field from Rowand. The only team that I see really losing would be the Angels. Just my opinion. What does everyone else think?

anyone know why anaheim seems hot on trading washburn? every trade rumour i've heard this offseason having to do with the angels, he's included ... seems to me he's an above average starter and is still young, altho i'm not sure what his contract status is -- so maybe that's it ...

Washburn had one of the worst ground ball to fly ball ratio's of any pitcher last year. Anaheim now has Colon, Escobar, Washburn, Ortiz, Lackey, Shields and Sele who can start so I think they feel they can move a Washburn or Ortiz to fill one need and then plug someone in. They also have Ervin Santana in the minors who is very highly regarded and possibly Chris Bootcheck will step up this year so they are working from some depth.

yeah, i guess the glut of starters really does make somebody expendable, just not sure if he should be the guy -- esp. if they would be getting valentin back, who to me is of no help ... time will tell if discobar pans out in anaheim -- thanks for the info ...

Does anyone know how many options Werth has left?

Fourth is still okay. I'll take the pity beer.

Does anyone know how many options Werth has left?

Zero.

Rios vs. Delmon Young at Ask BA
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html

Question:

I have a piece I'd like to submit for Pinch Hits, how do I go about this?

http://www.cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/7051479
Looks like the Pudge deal is now official (if it wasn't before)...
From a Detroit perspective, at least they have an out-clause if he gets injured...

http://economics.about.com
I have a piece I'd like to submit for Pinch Hits, how do I go about this?

Anyone interested in posting a clutch hit should e-mail one of the staff. My e-mail addy is economics.guide@about.com , so feel free to send things my way.

Cheers,

Mike

WillRain, you can submit an article to Craig Burley, but I don't want to type his e-mail address where it can be picked up by those low forms of life who spread viruses. Click on my name, and you'll get Craig's address.

Does anyone know how many options Werth has left?

Incidentally, one can be optioned an unlimited number times for a limited amount of time (two years?), so when you hear that a player has "one option remaining," more than likely it is not true.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/transanctionsprimer.html
More "options" stuff. This is from Rob Neyer's "Transactions Primer," which can be accessed by clicking my name.

"After three years as a pro, a player must be protected on a team's 40-man roster, or he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft (more on that later). Once he's served those three years, and assuming he is added to the 40-man roster, his club then has what are called "options" on him.

When a player is on the 40-man roster but not on the 25-man Major League roster, he is on "optional assignment." One common misconception about the rules is that a player may only be "optioned out" three times. Actually, each player has three option years, and he can be sent up and down as many times as the club chooses within those three seasons.

When you hear that a player is "out of options," that means he's been on the 40-man roster during three different seasons, beginning with his fourth as a pro, and to be sent down again he'll have to clear waivers."

Werth has no option years remaining. He must remain in the Majors or clear waivers to be sent down.

Werth has no option years remaining.

Well it could be said that he has zero options in Toronto as well. With Rios and Gross on the way, a trade would be the best thing that could ever happen to Werth.

Another night at the Palace,
And my mock turtleneck still reeks.

I believe the Yankees farm system is among the worst in baseball, and one could make a case for worst, I believe.

#140727 Posted 01/31/2004 07:49 PM by Oggman:
Well it could be said that he has zero options in Toronto as well. With Rios and Gross on the way, a trade would be the best thing that could ever happen to Werth.
--------------------------------
Speaking of trading Werth --- who could probably be a decent 4th outfielder in the "worst case scenario" --- what do you guys think he could command in a trade? Obviously his value isn't too high, and obviously he isn't worth half of Rafael Soriano, but would another team give up even a mid-range prospect for him? He is a versatile, multi-tool player in that he has some speed, some power and can probably play more than one position (like an Eli Marerro --- whom if I'm not mistaken, Rob Neyer compared him too) --- so there surely must be some teams who could use his services...

like an Eli Marerro --- whom if I'm not mistaken, Rob Neyer compared him too

I'm not sure if Neyer said that, but John Neary mentioned it in his Syracuse report.

Hijack - The actual 2003/04 NBA All-Stars

I don't pick by position. Positions in the pro game (especially among the stars) are only somewhat meaningful. I aim for a balance of big guys and small guys, forwards and guards.

Also, if you have to pick by position the East is even worse than it is already.

East Starters

Jermaine O'Neal, Indians
Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Atlanta
Tracy McGrady, Orlando
Jason Kidd, New Jersey
Baron Davis, New Orleans

East Bench

Donyell Marshall, Chicago/Toronto
Michael Redd, Milwaukee
Stephon Marbury, Phoenix/New York
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland
Paul Pierce, Boston
Allen Iverson, Philadelphia
Ben Wallace, Detroit

Apologies To

Kenyon Martin, New Jersey
Vince Carter, Toronto
Carlos Boozer, Cleveland
Chauncey Billups, Detroit
Ron Artest, Indiana

West Starters

Yao Ming, Houston
Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota
Peja Stojakovic, Sacramento
Sam Cassell, Minnesota

West Bench

Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
Elton Brand, Clippers
Shaquille O'Neal, Lakers
Antawn Jamison, Dallas
Kobe Bryant, Lakers
Zach Randolph, Portland
Andre Miller, Denver

Apologies To

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
Ray Allen, Seattle
FREE STROMILE SWIFT
Pau Gasol, Memphis
Corey Maggette, Clippers
Shawn Marion, Phoenix
Brad Miller, Sacramento
Mike Bibby, Sacramento

Rob: I like the Werth/Marrero comparison too, but that was Jordan's report.

John

Rob: I like the Werth/Marrero comparison too, but that was Jordan's report.

Oops, my bad John. It was Jordan. I should check these things out first. :)
Does anyone have a link to the Neyer article with this comparison?

Craig - I agree roughly 96%, but no LeBron? I don't see how he could be only the third-best on the Cavs...

Not that it matters but Drew Henson has been working out at the IMG facilities as striclty a quarterback and not a thirdbasemen which confirms earlier reports of this.IMG wants to bring in a mediator to solve any contractual issues with the Yankees and Henson so he can move on to his football career I guess the next Mike Schmidt will hav eto settle for being the next Joe Montana now. No Magloire on the All Star team? What a shame.

Werth has no option years remaining. He must remain in the Majors or clear waivers to be sent down.


It's pretty well a sure thing he'll be claimed.

Surely Detroit, Tampa, or Pittsburgh could find a place for him to play.

Question:

Does he have the arm/agility to play 3B? Maybe he could be traded to the Yankees ;)

Can I just use this as a place to say baseball needs to start!!! im bored out of my mind!! at least fantasy baseball! something! anything! its insanely hard to follow the bruins from california, the celtics suck and the pats are going to win no problem. all this off season stuff is too boring, i mean, the astro's fifth starter rates a headline on ESPN? this is one of about three or four sites that are worth reading, everything else is horrible

sorry for the rant

and now back to the regular scheduled hijacking!

From SoCal: Stoneman, Scoscia and Moreno are all saying that the Halos are not conducting any trade talks, that the roster is set going into spring training, and, from experience, Stoneman knows having ONE extra starting pitcher is not a glut of pitching.
These guys have been pretty straight with the fans and I don't see the Angels trading Glaus or Washburn unless the deal is overwhelming.

Washburn is part of a core group (with Erstad, Eckstein, Percival, etc) that is the heart of this team. And the team truly believes MacPherson will be ready sometime in 2005 for 3b, so I doubt they will be trading for a new player at that position.

I have been wrong before, but that's the view from here right now.....

Craig - I agree roughly 96%, but no LeBron? I don't see how he could be only the third-best on the Cavs...

Oh, but he is. But he's good, he missed the "too bad" list by a hair. LeBron and Dwayne Wade (who are almost exactly the same player this year) are one rung below Billups.

Those eight guys on the West's "too bad" list could probably wallop the East All-Stars in a real game.

I may be alone on this but I want werth to stay at least untilk the Delgado/1B matter is settled. I see him as the obvious in-house solution (barring being forced to move Hinske) to replace Delgado if he moves on. If he's another Marrero, that's not bad, but I think he could have more than that to offer.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/7846701.htm
The White Sox execs' Q&A with fans appears to have been a complete train wreck. Williams is right about Hernandez's defense, but otherwise, a bevy of ill-tempred questions with ill-tempered answers.

COMN for story.

I may be alone on this but I want werth to stay at least untilk the Delgado/1B matter is settled. I see him as the obvious in-house solution (barring being forced to move Hinske) to replace Delgado if he moves on

Mr. Phelps is hurt by this statement.

The White Sox execs' Q&A with fans appears to have been a complete train wreck.

Wow. If the Chicago fans think a $65M payroll is modest in the AL Central they should be glad they aren't following teams who are doing better on lower payrolls in much tougher divisions.

I think if the Jays got a $65M payroll from 2005 going forward every hard core fan in the city would be doing backflips.

The White Sox execs' Q&A with fans appears to have been a complete train wreck.

This seems to steam from the fact that a lot of fairweather fans just expect too much. They see the big deals with Shilling and Tejada go down, and they interpret Chicago's actions, or in this case inactions, as laziness or disinterest. In my opinion, no one outside of the Yankees or the Red Sox can consistently please these fans.

I think if the Jays got a $65M payroll from 2005 going forward every hard core fan in the city would be doing backflips.

Wow. Here's an interesting thought experiment. Imagine you are JP at the start of the offseason and Rogers had just green lighted a $65 million budget, what do you spend it on? Would you sign a big FA, save some for riskier draft picks, or maybe shoot the moon and trade for Shilling? I don't really think any of these would be in the best interest of the Jays personally, but I'd be interested to hear what some of the ZLC would have done in this situation.

$65 million every year, going forward? Excellent.

I would have changed very few moves, I think.

I still would have signed Lilly and Batista and Hentgen and let Escobar walk. I think those are quality deals. I like the idea of buying time until the pitching prospects start arriving, and not overpaying for starters right now.

I'd be getting Phelps's name on a five-year deal, similar to the Wells/Hinske deals. That doesn't cost a lot, but I think it's a good move that still should be pursued. Halladay would still be signed, and I would be indicating still to Delgado our interest in a deal.

I would not have signed Gomez, and I would not have signed Kerry Ligtenberg. I would have forked out that dough and signed Rich Aurilia instead, even at a two-year deal.

And finally, overrated or not, I'd have spent the roughly $14 million a year I'd have had left and signed Vladimir Guerrero to play right field.

IF the Jays had 15 million extra this off-season, I think Tejada and Urbina would look good in a Jays uniform and probably give the team a league-best offense and maybe put them over the top. I know it would probably be wise to spend extra money on SP, but I really think that the Jays top four will be very good and that a Bush/McGowan/Arnold could pull a "Dontrelle Willis" this year and make the team pitching even better.

Speaking of McGowan/Bush/Arnold, I was wondering if anyone knows the "formula" for determining whether a player's season counts as one of the six for arbitration/FA purposes. (i.e. how many innings or days of ML service)

Robbie, one "year" of ML service time is 180 days, so the six "years" for FA purposes is 1080 days of ML service. Time spent on the 25-man active roster or the 15- or 60-day DLs counts as service time.

Its February, YIPPEE. Pichers and catchers report THIS month.

I should note that the only roster time that counts is that between Opening Day and the end of the regular seasons schedule; and that there is a maximum of 180 days that can be credited to a player's service time in any one year.

Any extra money that I had would be ploughed into starting pitchers.

I don't see the Jays having holes anywhere in their lineup over the next four years or so:

C Myers 2004, Quiroz 2005-2010 [I am pessimistic about Cash]
1B Delgado 2004-????
2B Hudson 2004-2008
SS Woodward 2004, Adams/Hill 2005-2010
3B Hinske 2004-2007
RF Johnson 2004, Gross 2005-2010
CF Wells 2004-2007
LF Catalanotto 2004, Rios 2005-2010
DH Phelps 2004-2008

This is a cheap, young, high-upside lineup. If any holes unexpectedly arise, I can't imagine that JP won't be able to fill them cheaply. There are going to be a lot of Frank Catalanottos on the market in years to come.

By contrast, the rotation isn't nearly as settled in years to come:

SP Halladay 2004-2007
SP Batista 2004-2006
SP Lilly 2004-2006
SP Hentgen 2004
SP Towers 2004

Having one or two more established starting pitchers would make a huge difference to this team. I think that it is entirely possible that Towers will give up 12 HR in his first fifty innings and be waived. It's true that the Jays have a number of decent to very good pitching prospects, but they're not nearly as projectable as the hitters.

If I had six million bucks per year above the current budget, I would have used it to resign Kelvim Escobar. With ten to fifteen million, I would have tried to put together a package for Curt Schilling.

John

From the Sentinel article: New manager Ozzie Guillen was the star of the show Friday, at one point joking that if shortstop Jose Valentin "doesn't have a good start this year, I might activate myself."

Can we be sure he was joking?

For whatever reason, the Chicago media just hate Jose Valentin, and it colours every perception out there about him.

$5 million is expensive, but if it's late July and Woody isn't hitting and the Jays are still in it, Valentin would be a great guy to seek in a deadline deal. I think Valentin's defense is very good and he can clearly still pound the longball, a great 7th or 8th place hitter.

Agreed about Valentin, I've always felt that he got a bum rap. He's the exact kind of high-error, high-range player (unless I'm confusing him with someone else) who the media always seems to hate.

Craig - just wondering if you're basing your thoughts on LeBron on statistical analysis or your own personal scouting? I ask because I've only seen him play a few times, and it's all but impossible to separate the hype from his true level of performance. I know he's been good, but if you listen to the media he's been either disappointingly average or he's already better than Magic.

I miss baseball too.

http://baseballbeat.blogspot.com/
COMN for a good article by the, IMO, excellent Richard Lederer from Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat. If anyone here doesn't frequent the site I recommend his archives for the next lazy Sunday afternoon. He argues for Sheff's future HoF induction this weekend.

My apologies if it's already been posted, but I just noticed this article at BA (COMN) regarding the Reds deciding to go with a tandem starter system in the minors. It's pretty similar to what a lot have discussed here. From rookie ball to high A, all pitchers will be on a 75 pitch limit and alternate between starting and relieving with another pitcher.

The Jays don't seem to have much interest in going that route just yet. But with presumably another strong draft of arms and a close eye on how the system works out for the Reds, we'll most likely see more discussion on this idea over the next year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/040130notebook.html
Awww...@#$#

COMN for the link I promised above.

http://www.cleveland.com/weblogs/jodygerut/
Also, Cleveland Indians rookie star Jody Gerut has added a new entry on his own blog recently, giving his thoughts on the "Sophomore slump" phenomenon. A good read from a very intelligent young ballplayer. COMN for the full story.

You can't totally blame a team for a player's poor attitude but the team becomes an unwitting accomplice by affording the player a new level of responsibility and freedom previously unavailable to him. He's now being told about the team's plans, the team's future, and how he fits into that picture. Thse things take their toll on a player's ego. Certain players have an obligation to take on some additional responsibility as they grow and develop- seems harmless but it actually can be pretty overwhelming to be catapulted so quickly into a leadership role, especially on a team admittedly lacking veteran leadership.

Gerut's article should be printed out and posted inside the locker of every young player.

The tandem starting plan has so many benefits in the low minors. Firstly it gets a higher number of pitchers a significant number of innings; you never know when a guy pegged as a reliever will step up and be productive. You keep people healthier and teach them to pitch more efficiently. Especially early in a pitcher's career you need to ramp up their year to year innings gradually keeping in mind that their shoulders aren't fully developed until their mid-20s.

And it would make sense for a system like the Jays where they draft so many college pitchers whom they want to move quickly. Even this coming year it might be tough to give significant innings to everyone who needs them because there are so many pitchers slated to pitch between low-A and high-A.

http://www.baseball1.com/
I'm sure that some of you, like me, have been waiting for the Lahman Database to be updated. It now is. COMN to get it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1724781
Peter Gammons' new colums is out in which he takes a look at the AL East. COMN for link.

(Gammons makes yet another reference to the plethora of Blue Jays prospects on the horizon and also comments that the Jays look like a 90-win team that should be strong contenders for the next four years.)

As a big believer in tandem starting, I'm encouraged by Cincinatti's conversion at the minor league level. My own view is that it will ultimately be recognized that 8 pitchers throwing 70 pitches every 4 days on a regular basis will be more productive than 5 pitchers throwing 100-110 pitches every 5 days on a regular basis and 6 other pitchers working every day or every other day. But, baseball is a conservative sport and new ideas like sabermetrics take 20 years or more to germinate. It will be 2025 before we're likely to see this at the major league level. I'd like to be proven wrong about that.

I'm very excited, just landed Alexis Rios with my first-round pick in one of my DMB leagues. I have my eye on a couple of other players too, but landing Rios was an incredibly pleasant surpruise, I never thought he'd last this long.

Luminaries taken in front of Rios included Horacio Ramirez, Jimmy Gobble, and Doug Waechter (and Prince Fielder). Man, was I lucky.

It appears that I'm three days too late to win the free drink. *sigh*

I know he's been good, but if you listen to the media he's been either disappointingly average or he's already better than Magic.

James is only one of a handful of players averaging over 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists a game this season. Given that it'd be hard to say anyone has been disappointing, let alone someone doing that just out of HS. If that's disappointing the expectations were unrealistic.

McGrady & Bryant are 2 of the best players today and they could barely make it off the bench in their rookie season. James is going to be scary good.

Everytime I put LeBron's season in perspective I'm nearly reduced to drooling. He's, what, 8 (8!) years from his peak? Maybe as many as 10-12? It's beyond words... Pujols is lauded for starting his career with a bang at 21... The much heralded Sidney Crosby would have to, what, finish top 5 for both the Rocket Richard and Art Ross trophies at 18 to match LeBron's success?

He's, what, 8 (8!) years from his peak? Maybe as many as 10-12?

Basketball players typically peak at 25-26, though some peak later. That's anecdotal, though.

LeBron's success is not Gretzky-esque, but it's only a rung or two below. Already he is one of the best 75 or so players in the NBA, incredible for someone at that age.

Craig - just wondering if you're basing your thoughts on LeBron on statistical analysis or your own personal scouting? I ask because I've only seen him play a few times, and it's all but impossible to separate the hype from his true level of performance. I know he's been good, but if you listen to the media he's been either disappointingly average or he's already better than Magic

Well, I won't deny that my own personal views have some impact, but this is almost straight statistical analysis (haven't watched enough basketball this year to do otherwise)... the equivalent of basketball sabermetrics. I am working on a couple of articles, actually, and Aaron wants me to do one for his blog soon.

Being an average player at LeBron's age is a momentous achievement, and he's already better than average - though his man-on-man defense needs serious work in my view. He's already a top-15 point guard, and he's not even really a point guard.

With the White Sox, it has become an eternal game of fans blaming management and management blaming fans. The fans say they won't come to the games until management fields a better team, and management says they won't spend more on a better team until fans come to the games.
Of course, looking at their farm system, the trades of prospects like Aaron Miles and Royce Ring, and reading Moneyball("Kenny Williams, A's fan"), I don't really wonder why Kenny Williams thinks that spending more money=a better team. It brings to mind one of my favorite Simpsons quotes:

"dig up, stupid!"

If you ever do a favour for anyone, never expect them to pay it back. They will just screw you over and over and have the gall to come back and ask for more and more and more.

And the more a person praises his own moral and spiritual rectitude, the less you should trust them.

Still on Lebron...

I think what really is amazing about this guy is that he is worth as much as the hype he has been given.

Banded as the savior to the Cleveland Cavaliers, he has boosted their attendance as well as their road attendance immensely this year (this is a personal thing, where I've seen Cavs games on TV, their stadium looks full or near full, instead of rows upon rows of empty seats).

Individually, I can't see anyone complain about his statistics either, he is playing well in the big 3 categories - all while handling PG duties for his team, and this is hard for any rookie starter.

The only thing that he hasn't produced in is the Cavs' standings in the league. While they have improved on yesteryear, the team is still far from the top of the Leastern conference. While some people will use this against him, I'm going to point to Arod and say that one person can't change a bad team, not when they are spending millions on bad players. But the change is already coming in Cleveland, gone are salary blogs Michael Stewart and one notorius ballhog Ricky Davis.

To comment on whether James is comparable to the greats of any sport, let it be Gretzky or whomever is a little overboard. (Analogy: Was Griffey a shoo-in for the HoF back in 97, before being traded to the Reds? Of course, there was no way he can fall of the end of the earth from where he was... and the things Grif has had to go through since the trade completely boggles the mind)

Apparently, Pat Gillick is in the running to be the Dodgers new GM.

Young - I don't think Craig was referring to LeBron's "Gretzkyesque" accomplishments as a comentary on his whole career, but his incredible poise and ability at such a young age.
I happen to agree - LeBron has already improved his "weak" shooting, and I don't see any reason why his defence won't follow suit. He could be a top 5 player in the NBA within 3 seasons, and that's conservative.

There was a great article in today's Yale Daily News addressing some questions worthy of further discussion. In comparing the ahead-of-the-curve Patriots to the A's, Nicholas Stephanopoulos claims that most rival teams have been slow to imitate their successful exploitations of the sports market:

...Once our bright young thing has identified and publicized some example of irrational decision-making, how long does it take the market to eliminate that inefficiency? The examples of the A's and Patriots suggest that, just as they were blind to the inefficiency in the first place, most competitors in a market are also slow to change their less-than-ideal behavior even when confronted with evidence of its inadequacy. Though it has been several years since the A's adopted their player-selection odology, only two teams (the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays) have followed their lead, and no football team currently comes close to the Patriots' statistical savvy.

Steve Z, the last sentence of your post should read "Though it has been several years since the A's adopted their player-selection methodology..." It's been awhile since I ran into a word that I've never seen before, and "odology" looked like a good candidate.

Oops! (I guess CyberPatrol didn't like the word! -- I'll have to preview next time)