Good deal.

I think this means that Delgado's definitely not going to be back. But it does keep us under budget in 2004. And obviously, Halladay's just amazing.

One thought of concern: will the Jays be able to insure that fourth year?

http://economics.about.com
I doubt the Jays insured any of the contract. I don't think they have the money to, even if someone would take the fourth year. Just a guess, though.

Cheers,

Mike

I always assumed that the money to insure contracts came from a different 'pot' then the player salaries. Like, we'll have a payroll of $XX million, so we know the insurance will cost $Y, and we're cool with that. Interesting that you don't think they insured any of it.

This is indeed a great signing. It's also the end of Delgado in Toronto. Just a question of curiousity to everyone:
Assuming the Jays don't intend to keep Delgado (or offer him a contract he'll accept and assuming the Jays are reasonable copmpetetive, would you trade Delgado at the deadline,or let him walk at season's end instead?

http://me.woot.net
Delgado will not be traded for the following reasons:

1. He has a no-trade clause.
2. Nobody wants to pay his contract.

As well, I don't buy that this means the end of Delgado in Toronto.

I have been told on a couple of occasions that it is not standard practice to insure contracts. And you certainly wouldn't want to pay the money to insure a *pitcher's* contract! Ouch!

It's also the end of Delgado in Toronto

Like Joe, I don't believe this for a second.

http://economics.about.com
I always assumed that the money to insure contracts came from a different 'pot' then the player salaries. Like, we'll have a payroll of $XX million, so we know the insurance will cost $Y, and we're cool with that. Interesting that you don't think they insured any of it.

I'm sure most teams do divide things into different pots this way. I just don't think the Jays have a $Y pot to draw from.

If you're a well-capitalized team, insuring contracts doesn't make a lot of sense.

Think of it this way: Suppose the Jays and the insurance companies both know that we can expect Halladay to be injured 10% of the time. In that case, the expected insurance payoff to the Jays is $4.2 million (we'll suppose there's zero deductable).

Of course, the insurance company isn't going to charge the Jays $4.2 million to insure the contract. The company has to pay administrative costs, will have to be compensated for the risk (what if Halladay's arm falls off tomorrow and they have to pay the whole $42 million?), plus they'll want to make a little profit. So, for the sake of argument, they'll charge the Jays $5.2 million.

The Jays know on average that they'll lose $1 million by buying the insurance. Why should they throw away a million dollars, particularly if they're losing money. There's only a few reasons I can think of:

1. They absolutely cannot afford to take a $42 million hit if Halladay never pitches another game.
   
   This is why most of us insure our houses but not our toasters; hardly anyone has enough money to buy a new house the next day if they lose their current one. Almost everyone can afford to run down to Target and get a new toaster if their old one blinks out.
   
   It seems to me that a company like Rogers can take a $42 million dollar hit and survive. An undercapitalized team, like the Brewers, probably couldn't, and would need the insurance.
   
   
2. The team and the insurance company have different ideas on the risk of the players. If the insurance company puts the injury risk at 10% and the team puts it at 25%, the team will do well for itself if they buy the insurance. This is because the insurance company will price the insurance contract at a far lower price than the expected loss. I've read in a couple places that in the late 1990's insurance companies were drastically underestimating injury risk. I doubt that's the case any more.
   
   
3. There's some tax advantages to buying the insurance. I have no idea if there are or not. You'll have to ask Craig Burley.
   
   

I really don't see any advantages to the Jays in buying insurance, so I really doubt that they did. Just a guess, though.

Cheers,

Mike

I am going to assume, by the way, that this is in fact a done deal and not a false leak. Given the source here (Jeff Blair) I think we can all rest assured it is the straight goods.

By the way, what I didn't address was that this is an amazing deal, locking up two free-agent years of the Cy Young Award winner at bargain rates. It goes to show what a good relationship between team and player(s) can do in reaching a deal, and the organization deserves to be congratulated. Huzzah! HLH will be a Fighting Jay for a good long while.

Don't think it's a great deal? Bartolo Colon got $51 million for four years from Anaheim - the same exact $12.75 million a year that Halladay is getting for the two free-agent years of his deal - but the Jays are also getting Big Roy for a bargain-basement $6 million this year.

On the 2004 budget front, the Jays are now something like $2 million UNDER the $50 million salary budget. Whether this means there may yet be another trade or free agent signing remains to be seen (I would expect a trade though, if anything) but the possibility has re-opened thanks to a brilliant coup with Halladay.

Hey, since the team could use a rightfielder, maybe they'll go after Raul Mondesi! :)

By the way : WillRain, with the last entry in our prediction contest, wins with a correct guess of $42 million. Congrats!

The contract shouldn't be a problem in trading Delgado, at the deadline there will only be about 6-7 mil remaining. If we're trading him it means we out of the race and won't be picking anyone else up so we should be able to eat some or all of the money like we did with Stewart. And if there truly is no chance of him coming back (I'm not saying there isn't but hypothetically...) and we're out of the race, why wouldn't Delgado at least consider going to a playoff team for a couple months to get a chance to win and possibly raise his value on the free agent market?

I don't think this means for sure that Delgado is gone, but it is raising some serious doubts in my mind. But if he really is gone, and we're out of the race... why not at least try to trade him? We sure aren't getting any compensation picks for him.

As for the contract. It's a good thing, but I'm still a little bit concerned. Not overly, but a little. For a team that is supposedly planning to seriously contend in '05, '06, '07, what's with all the backloading? It's just tying our hands a little later on. Are Terry Adams and De Los Santos really gonna make the difference for us this year?

This is why most of us insure our houses but not our toasters; hardly anyone has enough money to buy a new house the next day if they lose their current one. Almost everyone can afford to run down to Target and get a new toaster if their old one blinks out.

Well, *most* of us don't insure our toasters, but there are enough morons out there buying "Extended Warranty Programs" for their toasters that there's big money to be made. I couldn't believe it when the Radio Shack nametag tried to sell me a $25 extended warranty on a $70 DVD player I bought as a gift just before Christmas - I actually thought he was kidding.

As far as the tax advantages of insuring contracts go, I actually don't know, but I don't think there's any net saving.

The $2M that the Jays are expected to be under budget may well be saved for a midseason pickup, no?

Good signing.

Andrew Edwards: I think this means that Delgado's definitely not going to be back

Robbie Goldberg: It's also the end of Delgado in Toronto.

I really don't see this, not yet. It will depend on the free agent market, unless of course Carlos signs an extension without testing the waters.

Here's a simple way of looking at it: In 2004, the Jays will pay $24.5M to Carlos and Roy. If they wanted to keep this constant for the following 3 years, they could offer Carlos $13.0M, $11.75M, $11.75M. That's not a low-ball offer.

But of course, there are increases coming to Batista, Hinske, Ligtenberg, Lilly, and Wells, a total of $7.25M in 2005. I counter that with this: the following players will be free agents after 2004: Hentgen ($2.2M), Adams ($1.7M), de los Santos ($850K), Gomez ($750K), Berg ($700K), Catalanotto ($2.3M), Myers ($900K). That's a total of $9.4M. They have to be replaced and that will cost a minimum of $2.1M, but it's not exactly a bleak outlook. J.P. is more than capable of making it work, even with no increase to total payroll, if he concludes that he needs Delgado to stay.

Gotta love Ricciardi, he is a great salesman for his team, he obviously sold Halladay on taking lower than market value this year as he has Lilly, Batista...

On the Delgado topic, I believe Ricciardi will keep him till the end of the season no matter what. Let us remember that if he does and Delgado leaves as a free agent, the Jays are compensated with two first rounders for their loss. On the other hand, seeing how well JP has been treating his players, I believe he would leave Delgado a chance to play on the final day so the fans could thank him in case he was not staying.

Oops, I did lowball Carlos... he could be offered $14M in 2005 without changing the Halladay/Delgado budget.

http://economics.about.com
Well, *most* of us don't insure our toasters, but there are enough morons out there buying "Extended Warranty Programs" for their toasters that there's big money to be made. I couldn't believe it when the Radio Shack nametag tried to sell me a $25 extended warranty on a $70 DVD player I bought as a gift just before Christmas - I actually thought he was kidding.

Hahahahaha. Good point. I didn't know Rat Shack was doing that. Future Shop is pretty bad for trying to push those on you. Who buys those things?!? Either the insurance is a ripoff, or the product has a 35% fail rate. In any case, I don't want it.

Other than to buy a few speciality items like rotary potentiometers, I never get anything at the Rat Shack, so I guess that's why I've never encountered that before.

RE: The $2 million. Maybe they'll use that money for signing bonuses to lock up some younger players. That'd be my hope, but I doubt it will happen.

Cheers,

Mike

http://www.battersbox.ca/gwyn/Jays.xls
[sarcasm]20% of the payroll for one player? Do the Jays not know what they are doing?[/sarcasm]

Someone is on the ball around here. The contract is already updated in the Jays' payroll spreadsheet (COMN).

I don't see how this signing has any impact on Delgado. Say that Delgado signs a 3 year $40 million contract for 2005-2007 (basically what I'd be comfortable with). In 2005 you're paying Halladay and Delgado, combined, a little less than you are paying them this season. While Hinske and Wells increase in 2005, you should be getting savings with Cat, Hentgen, and Adams being replaced by current minor leaguers at the minimum.

The key to pulling it off of course is to have the minor leaguers step in and contribute.

Halladay press conference at 11:45 on the FAN.

I don't know why anything has changed about Delgado because of this deal. It was expected wasn't it?

#138113 Posted 01/22/2004 09:32 AM by DanJ:
Let us remember that if he does and Delgado leaves as a free agent, the Jays are compensated with two first rounders for their loss.
-------------------
This is really looking far ahead, but chances are that the Jays wouldn't offer arbitration to him. Delgado is the kind of older player playing a common position that is at risk of not getting a "fair" contract. Anyways, he'd probably be worth keeping around until the end as Delgado tends to perform well when it's contract time.

http://economics.about.com
In 2005, the Jays could be paying $31 million for these 19 players:

PLAYER	2005
Doc	10.500
Batista	4.750
Lilly	3.100
Hinske	3.000
Wells	2.900
Lberg	2.500
Phelps	0.350
Hudson	0.350
Lopez	0.350
Johnson	0.350
Cash	0.350
Kersh	0.325
Towers	0.325
Haines	0.325
Werth	0.325
Clark	0.325
Arnold	0.300
Quiroz	0.300
Rios	0.300
TOTAL	31.025

They'd still have 6 slots to fill with the remaining payroll. Their ability to sign Delgado depends on where you see the budget being for 2005. If it's $55 million, then they can. If it's $45 million, then Delgado will be somewhere else.

Cheers,

Mike

On the fan 590, they were saying there was going to be a press conference at 11:45 to announce the signing. They said they would broadcast it and I assume the score, sportsnet, and tsn would all broadcast such a press conference. I can't find any information about the press conference on the web and I'm always worried that I don't hear correctly when it comes to the radio. My attention tends to drift on and off. So what I'm saying is you guys might want to watch or listen for a press conference, because apparently one is supposed to happen.

The fact that the Jays have Rios, Quiroz, Bush, Arnold, McGowan, Peterson, Gross, Cash, Adams, Hill and others --- all of whom should be on the roster in 2005 --- boads very well for the team. If you have minor league talent like this coming in, you're probably saving 30-45 million dollars if such players had to be acquired through free agency.

My comment about Delgado leaving was mostly an observation of JP's behaviour.

He's signing a lot of longer-term deals, and they're all totally right to do, but every single one includes a huge jump in cost in 2005. That tells me that he clearly expected a major decrease in payroll in 2005. I don't believe that he expects, and, especially, I don't believe he's pitching to his bosses, that Delgado's sticking around.

The other thing is that I find it hard to believe that there isn't somebody out there who's going to overpay for Delgado (LA?) in a competitive bidding procedure. And JP won't overpay for him, even if JP could afford to.

It's a shame, it really is. I like Delgado a lot, he a great player and ostensibly a great person as well. But I just don't think the mechanics of it are going to happen, even if the spreadsheets add up.

I don't see how it necessarily affects Delgado, either. Carlos is almost certainly going to take a pay cut in 2005, whether it's in Toronto or elsewhere.

While Ricciardi probably can't outbid anybody, he can offer Carlos one very attractive perk: To be on the same team as Roy Halladay for the next three years. I think one of the biggest factors in re-signing Delgado will be how the team performs this year: If it can stay in contention all season long, Carlos might be willing to sign up for another hitch.

That said, I don't know Carlos, and maybe he'll just take $20 million and play for the Yankees.

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
Yeah, this is a great contract.

Gotta love that despite leading the league in IP these past two seasons, he's only middle of the pack in PAP.

I also don't think it's necessarily the end of Carlos. In this market, he could probably be resigned for Halladay's $12.5M a year (assuming he wants to stay).

As thrilled as I am to have Halladay locked up for years at a very reasonable overall cost, I too am a little worried about all this backloading. I know we want to give our best shot for this season, but I don't like doing it at the expense of our supposed prime seasons, 2005-08. If there is going to be an increase in the budget, then is not such a big factor, but if not, and we want to keep Delgado, then we are not left with much flexibility. I can't help but be a little worried with backloading, it just seems like such an Ashian thing to do.

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
re: backloading

Maybe Rogers is banking that as the club gets more competitive, more fans will tune in and come to the ballpark, thus enabling them to raise the budget a couple of extra million dollars. After all, we're pretty much in agreement that by 2005 (once the New Haven kids are in the bigs) this should be a kick ass team.

Doesn't future payroll depend, at least somewhat, on team performance/perception of team performance? I don't think we can say at this point that the Jays won't be able to afford Delgado because we haven't seen what the revenue will be like in 2004. If the team plays as well as it looks like it should and generates buzz because of the rookies coming up, I could easily see gate and ad revenue going up. I know the East is going to be tough, but if the Jays can beat up on the rest of the league this year (they're better than anyone in the Central, Seattle and Texas, arguably Oakland) and not lose games to the Devil Rays, they could hang in the wildcard battle until the end. This seems like it would have to bring in cash, not just on the Jays' books but in other areas Rogers profits off their success...

Am I totally off base?

I think backloading contracts is being way overblown.

Wells, Hinske, and Lilly's contracts have to be structured that way they are due to service time.

Millwood got almost $10 million in his last arbitration year. Halladay will be getting $10.5 million in his last arbitration year. I think we'll all agree that Halladay is a superior pitcher to Millwood, so that's in line with where it should be. $25.5 million for 2 years is at least what Halladay would get this year, as Colon got more than that this year. Plus, you wouldn't be able to sign him for only 2 years if he became a FA. Look at getting Halladay at $6 million this year as a bonus.

Batista's contract averages $4.4 million, and he's getting $3.6 million this year. I wouldn't consider that significant backloading.

This is a great contract. $12.75 in 2006 and 2007 is fair, and the modest salary for 2004 will allow the Jays the payroll flexibility to make a July addition. Well done, JP and Roy.

Now it's up to the fans to do their bit.

http://www.canadanewswire.com/en/releases/archive/January2004/22/c2205.html
http://www.canadanewswire.com/en/releases/archive/January2004/22/c2205.html

"major commitment reached by parties involved". Sounds more like the Jays and Halliday might be getting married.

I couldn't believe it when the Radio Shack nametag tried to sell me a $25 extended warranty on a $70 DVD player I bought as a gift just before Christmas

In the "good old days" when you could buy an extended warranty for $10 on anything in Radio Shack (and the warranty covered virtually any kind of breakage), I bought a $45 pair of headphones and added the warranty to it. I am notoriously hard on headphones, and as a result had always bought crappier ones than I'd like because of cost considerations.

Well, I replaced those headphones six times at no additional cost to myself.

When the extended warranty was up, I went to buy another set of headphones and another extended warranty, and the manager told me that "extended warranty is no longer available on headphones, thanks to you."

And I've been saddled with cheap headphones ever since.

Pistol, you're right that we're not overpaying Halladay in any season. I just think that if we're going to sign him long term, why not make it uniform for the whole deal? Why do we have to give him less money in his early years and more in his later years just because that's the way he would've been paid without a long term deal? Same goes for Wells and Hinske. I don't think this is a big problem and I have a ton of faith in Ricciardi, but I sort of wish we'd have made more of a sacrifice for this season in order to make less of a sacrifice later.

I think Mike is right on the money here. If the Jays get a slight increase in payroll to the mid-50 million range then keeping Delgado is probably not an issue. You expect his salary to come down by about $6-$8 million. This will eat up a big chunk of those rising contract and arbitration costs when combined with guys coming off the books who should be able to be replaced by minor leaguers making the minimum (Cat with Gross/Rios, Hentgen with Bush/McGowan, Adams with Arnold/Chulk/Peterson/Duroscher). And remember that the Jays should be able to staff their middle infield and catching with capable solutions for minimal cost with Hudson, Adams, Hill, Sequea, Cash, and Quiroz.

So whether Delgado stays or goes, I think this is a team in pretty good shape. If he goes, I think you build an affordable platoon at first with a pair of underrated sluggers or sign an affordable Hatteberg type (Mientkiewicz?) and pour the remainder of your money into improving other parts of the team. But they MUST have a couple of their young pitchers become impact contributers in the big leagues to really take the next step. If that can happen sometime in 2004 or even 2005 then good things are coming.

I'm in agreement with a lot of comments i've read that this doesn't affect Delgado's situation negatively. I'm all for a Delgado signing for 3 years at 40 mil or less. I am curious though, what everyone thinks Phelps ceiling is? Also, beyond Phelps, Hinske could be moved to 1B (where he would be much more suited, like Thome) and eventually JF Griffin might make an impact there. If we the jays look like a contending team in 2005, could we intice SS Garciaparra to sign, move Phelps/Hinske to 1B, And have Hill/Hinske at 3B? That would make the defense a lot better and still have a middle of the order that would be pretty dangerous. Any thoughts?

Why do we have to give him less money in his early years and more in his later years just because that's the way he would've been paid without a long term deal? Same goes for Wells and Hinske.

It has to do with service time. The first 3 seasons are cheap, the next 3 arbitration years increase and get incrementally larger and free agency is typically larger than the last arbitration year.

Taking Halladay as an example, if you game him $10.5 million each year (the average salary) you're screwing up the compensation for 5th year arbitration players because you're paying Halladay more than what he would otherwise earn. (Someone else might be able to explain that better).

Of course at $6 million this season he's getting less than he should so I wonder if that has the opposite effect?

Akira: I'm sure Nomar would take a pay cut to screw over the Bosox.
Think Paul Kariya.

So what is Delgado worth?

I have to admit that I don't quite think he's worth as much as some people here (although I've already been wrong once today).

If Delgado plays like he did last year, is he worth $15 million a season? Sure. What are the odds that he performs like last year? If he declines to where he's a first baseman posting an OPS+ of 130, what's he worth? That's still great, but I don't see 3 yrs $40 million worth of great. You'd think JP would be able to either move someone to first base, like Phelps or Hinske, and then fill the hole that creates with the $40 million.
Hey, when does Glaus become a free agent? :)
By 2007 Carlos will be 35. I guess my feeling is that there's got to be better uses of $10 -$15 million dollars than a 35 year old 1B.

Also, let's pretend it's a year from now. What team wants a first baseman and has lots of cash to spend?

In 2005, the Jays could be paying $31 million for these 19 players...They'd still have 6 slots to fill with the remaining payroll. Their ability to sign Delgado depends on where you see the budget being for 2005. If it's $55 million, then they can. If it's $45 million, then Delgado will be somewhere else.

I'll agree that they can't keep him if the payroll is $45M, but I like the following team at $50M. I've kept your 19 players at your projections, with the exception of Talley Haines and his $350K. I dropped him in favour of a $2.5M free agent starting pitcher.

Rotation		
SP1	Doc	10.500
SP2	Batista	4.750
SP3	Lilly	3.100
SP4	Bush	.300
SP5	FA	2.500
Bullpen		
Righty	Lopez	.350
Righty	Arnold	.300
Righty	Towers	.325
Righty	Lberg	2.500
Setup L	Kersh	.325
LOOGY	dSantos	1.000
Lineup		
C	Quiroz	.300
1B	Delgado	14.000
2B	Hudson	.350
SS	Woody	.900
3B	Hinske	3.000
LF	Gross	.300
CF	Wells	2.900
RF	Rios	.300
DH	Phelps	.350
Bench		
OF	Johnson	.350
Utility	Clark	.325
C	Cash	.350
Glove	Adams	.300
#25	Werth	.325
-------	-------	-------
Total	payroll	50.000

Also, beyond Phelps, Hinske could be moved to 1B (where he would be much more suited, like Thome) and eventually JF Griffin might make an impact there.

Or the non-Delgado, non-1B guys like Hinske and Griffin could be dealt while their value is higher from hitting well at a position where talent is more scarce. If it was between trading Hinske and shifting him off 3B (premature b/c we don't know what he'll do injury-free), I'd rather deal him while his value's high.

When you look ahead, SS looks like the only place the Jays will have a problem with over the next 4 years, and that's only assuming Hill and Adams can't play there. That's amazing depth. With Bautista and Halladay, the only pitching needs are 3-5 starters, which the organization looks to be cranking out quickly. The Yankees and Sox should be sh*tting themselves, especially given the sad states of their farm systems...

Also, let's pretend it's a year from now. What team wants a first baseman and has lots of cash to spend?

Red Sox
Orioles
Yankees
Dodgers
Mets
Braves
Angels
Mariners

And perhaps the new owner of the Expos or Brewers (if that ever happens).

The Brewers have Prince Fielder slated to play 1B long-term, while the Expos have Nick Johnson.

The key to keeping Delgado will be to work out a contract before the end of the season. I'm not sure if JP and company are willing to enter negotiations soon, but in my view, the earlier the negotiations begin, the better.

If Carlos puts up another monster year, it will probably push his market value far beyond what the Jays can afford. But signing a long-term deal in the spring would allow the Jays to pay less because it provides Carlos more security in case of injury.

A very important fact to consider is that the Jays have exclusive negotiating rights for the next 10 months. If they make a fair offer and Carlos wants to stay, I think they can get a deal done without worrying about what the Yankees or Red Sox might pay on the open market.

Pistol, based on the payroll projection you posted, things are looking good. I think 14 million for Delgado is a little exaggerated and I also think McGowan should be ready by that time (hence no need for a 2.5 million FA pitcher), so most probably, that's about 5 million in savings. So what's there is about a 45 illion budget. (though I really hope Rogers will boost it closer to 60ish ;) --- imagine the possibilities!!!)

I'm not convinced on the Yankees. I know they have tons of money... but I don't think they can just eat Giambi's contract. And won't Boston have David Ortiz, who does a nice Delgado impression at much less money? Leaving them to try to get a SS.
I also can't seen Atlanta or Seattle jumping in. Seattle doesn't pay that much money to good players unless they're Japanese. Now, if Delgado regressed a whole bunch, then maybe Seattle would be interested.

After I posted I did think of Baltimore though. They're really the only ones that worry me.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1467898
And even if Delgado leaves, there is a pretty decent FA crop in 2005 including guys like Glaus and Chavez who may intrigue the Jays.

For a more detailed list of some of the FA, COMN for a link to a Peter Gammons article from 2002 where he discusses the "star-studded" FA classes of 2004 and 2005.

It goes to show what a good relationship between team and player(s) can do in reaching a deal, and the organization deserves to be congratulated. Huzzah! HLH will be a Fighting Jay for a good long while.

Right on. This is a truly great day for the Blue Jays and their fans. I'm amused that some people would rather worry about the 2007 payroll or 2005 first baseman than simply enjoy the moment.

Doc could have gone to arbitration this year and next, then packed his bags. If he won two hearings, then signed as a free agent, that might have been another $10 million or more in his pocket. In other words, he really wants to be here. That's a tribute to what J.P. has built, and to Halladay's character. There are obviously more important things in his life than comparing salaries with other players. We are very lucky to have Doc the pitcher, and Roy the person, in town for another four years.

Forget about us, what does this do for team morale? I have to think the other starters are jumping for joy, the relievers are grinning ear-to-ear and the hitters can't wait to start the next rally. The guys like Batista and Hentgen who chose Toronto over many other offers know they made the right decision, and the team's reputation among players in both leagues just keeps getting better.

So whether Delgado stays or goes, I think this is a team in pretty good shape.

Precisely. Halladay took less than market value because he loves the organization, his coaches, the city and the opportunity to win. If Carlos feels the same way, you can be sure that J.P. will figure out a way to accomodate him. If Carlos does opt for a "better" offer, he will not be replaced by another expensive first baseman. It will be imperative to get more power from the corner OF spots (sorry, Sparky & Cat) and if Rios and Gross aren't ready, they may need to rent a FA slugger for a year or two.

Agree with Coach overall.

Johnny German: The problem is 2006 and 2007. Delgado's not signing a 1-year deal. So Add another $2m to Halladay, keep escalating Wells and Hinske, and start giving arbitration to some of those $350k players.

You can make all that go away if you assume that all our prospects keep paying off, but that's quite a leap. I just don't see it.

Robert, making a long-term commitment to Delgado now, in the absence of a promise of a payroll increase from Rogers, if necessary, involves a real risk.

The problem is the pitching for 2005. You would want to see how Lilly, McGowan, Bush, Arnold, Chen and Towers do in 2004, so you know whether you're looking for only one relief pitcher or two starters and a relief pitcher in the off-season. If three of the pitchers are ready to assume significant roles in 2005, then the Jays have the current budget, as Jonny's chart shows, for $14 million for Delgado in 2005. But, if only one is ready, then that $14 million will be a real problem.

Now if the contract is 4 years/$50 million at 12, 12, 13 and 13, everything might just work. Notionally, that would be like the Sheffield contract with an extra year but at a slightly reduced rate. In light of Halladay's contract, Carlos at 4 yrs/$50 might work for everybody.

I'm amused that some people would rather worry about the 2007 payroll or 2005 first baseman than simply enjoy the moment.

I think its a given that everyone is happy about the signing. People are just speculating about the impact it will have.

From a purely emotional standpoint, I want Delgado around during the good years for the same reason I wanted Stewart around- they were the team's heart when it a horrible mess. Both of them got an unfair amount of negative press (Stewart I think more than Delgado, but that might be selective memory on my part).

The most important part of this deal is that it ensures the Jays will be competitive for the next 4 years- a #1 starter isn't the key to winning (we've not won with Clemens and Halladay), but its probably the hardest piece to find given the unpredicablity of non-Cub pitching prospects. This takes the pressure off the young guys to develop rapidly, meaning the Jays can have patience that they never showed in the Ash era.

And the scary thing about Doc is that he picthed so well with a pretty mediocre defense behind him. Woodward and Hinske improve with the glove, Delgado continues his improved work, Hudson does what he did last year, Rios moves to RF, and Doc looks even better out there.

Notes from the press conference:

A very happy Paul Godfrey called himself, "the person who knows the least about baseball in this group," in a nod to J.P.'s expertise. That's the kind of boss most of us wish we had; someone who would let us do what we do best without interference, who doesn't feel compelled to grab all the credit. Godfrey called Doc the cornerstone for the future and the signing of J.P. the most important move the team has made under Rogers' ownership.

In a very brief speech, J.P. thanked Rogers, Tim McCleary, Keith Law and "all the rats down at the end of the hall" for their work, saying it was a team effort getting this deal done.

Doc summed it up nicely. "This is the organization I was meant to be with, and I want to win with."

There's still time to listen live on The FAN 590 as Doc and J.P. are answering media questions now and will soon join Mike Hogan in the studio.

You can make all that go away if you assume that all our prospects keep paying off, but that's quite a leap. I just don't see it.

Precisely. Unless there is a increase in payroll in '05 and beyond, how can you honestly be comfortable opperating a contending club when you're remaining budget space year to year is 5-7 million dollars? It doesn allow for injury, failed or stalled prospects, anything. It's all just too neat. I think Moffatt's earlier work clearly proves this out.

Why not? Halladay and Delgado are making over 24 million dollars in 2004, the team payroll is a shade under 50 million and this will be a good team. There are a number of good propects who will be contributing between 2005 and 2007. Without some of those prospects succeeding, I doubt we'll be able to win anything, with or without Delgado.

Doc called his friend Pat Hentgen "a veteran leader and a good person," and praised J.P. for finding the "right kind of people to go into battle with."

"It's going to be an exciting division to be in," said Roy about the AL East race. "You have to beat the best to be the best."

To those who predict dire consequences, based on all the prospects disappointing and some fear that the payroll won't be increased even when the team is in position to win, I have one question. What in the world does it take to make you happy?

I agree with everything that Coach said in terms of the overall impact on fans and team morale. My only quibble might be that I'm not sure you can characterize this as a "less than market" deal. It's less than market for '04 certainly (i.e. it's less than the Jays were offering in arbitration). It also would be less than market if Roy continued to pitch the way he has the last 2 years for the next 2 years and the market for salaries doesn't continue to decline and Roy opted for arbitration this year and next and then went to free agency after that. That's quite a number of "ifs". My only point is that I can easily see both sides feeling this is market for a 4 year deal for a pitcher who has not reached free agency (and hence is in a different position than Colon) and in an uncertain market. Either way its a good deal.

http://economics.about.com
The numbers RE: keeping Delgado just don't work if the Jays payroll is $45 million next year. Until JP knows how much he has to spend on salaries in 2005, his hands are pretty much tied.

Right on. This is a truly great day for the Blue Jays and their fans. I'm amused that some people would rather worry about the 2007 payroll or 2005 first baseman than simply enjoy the moment.

I agree with this 100%. This is a great day for Jays fans, as the Jays now have one of the best players in baseball until the end of 2007. You gotta love that.

Cheers,

Mike

Mike Wilner and Hogan are taking calls; it's 416-870-0590 or 1-888-666-0590; tell the producer you're a Bauxite.

Wilner says that Miguel Batista is eager to pitch in the big games against the Yankees and Red Sox, and delighted to be #2 behind Doc. That, and a persuasive sales pitch from J.P., is why he's here.

I just clicked tsn.ca and thought Roy signed with Rays seeing that pic of him in the new Jays uniforms....UGH!!

Without some of those prospects succeeding, I doubt we'll be able to win anything, with or without Delgado.

Oh, I agree and always keep this in mind. If there isn't real emergence out of McGowan, Bush, Arnold, Banks, etc etc on the pitching side, the team's probably no better in '05 and beyond than they'll end up being in '04. But a lot of pieces, a lot of contracts are set in place, that are geared towards competing soon. I a few key prospects don't emerge soon enough, or an injury comes along you can't just scrap it and give up. I think finacial flexibilty is very important 26th man.

If anybody gets through on the FAN, mention to Wilner that the Jays bought Halladay out of two years of free agency; not one.

Some idiot caller is already trying to trade Doc after 2005 to save the $25.5 million. Boy, they'll let anyone operate a phone.

Wilner, talking about the public perception that the Jays aren't serious contenders, shares my complaint. "In hockey, in basketball, everybody makes the playoffs."

This is an unfortunate reality. It does work both ways; I would never pay the exorbitant prices for an NHL or NBA game, because they play an 80-game season to "eliminate" a handful of teams that had no chance anyway. I don't even watch regular-season games from start to finish, because any one game is so unimportant. In baseball, the April home-and-home series with the Red Sox is meaningful, but if they had eight playoff teams in each league, even a junkie like myself wouldn't be hanging on every pitch.

For anyone like me who isn't near a radio, and whose net isn't giving any streaming audio either, can any good comments that come out of the FAN discussion be posted?

I noticed many people congratulating Ricciardi and the Jays front office for getting this done. While I agree whole-heartedly that this praise is well deserved, how about some props to Halladay who didn't grind out the Jays for every penny. This is the kind of classy guy every organization should be lucky to have - a guy who wants to win and is committed enough to doing it with the Jays that he didn't take them for everything he could. I think it speaks volumes about the outlook of the Jays for the next few years but it also says a lot about Doc's character. Thanks Roy & go Blue Jays.

http://me.woot.net
Halladay has long been a enigma wrapped in a riddle for me. He's very underspoken, someone who goes out and does his job but doesn't really express himself very much. That's why I'm very encouraged to see that Halladay believes that the Jays are who he's meant to be with. I guess the way he doesn't express much of anything made me think he had no real attachment to the Jays.

Wilner is on the FAN 590 right now; Roy and Brandy and JP are arriving into the studio right now.

The simple truth is that Jays fans should be really happy today. Period. Sit back and enjoy it without considering all sorts of side issues.

Asked how long this has been in the works, J.P. explained, "The first thing I did last year, was when we signed Hinske and Wells. I brought Doc in and told him he's next." The details were worked out in the last ten days or so.

J.P., who called Doc "the best pitcher in baseball," got off a good line about the duration. "I've got four years left on my contract, so I wanted Doc with me."

Roy was straightforward. "The organization was the most important thing for me. I can't think of anywhere else I'd rather be. I look forward to being a part of something special."

What in the world does it take to make you happy?

This ought to be all it takes, Coach. Here's to another Olympiad of rooting for a very easy guy to cheer for.

J.P., who called Doc "the best pitcher in baseball," got off a good line about the duration. "I've got four years left on my contract, so I wanted Doc with me."

The contracts for Ricciardi, halladay, Hinske, and Wells all expire at the same time. I'm sure there's a reporter who is sniffing out a conspiracy in all this...

Can we drop the preachy crap? Everyone enjoys the good news, but this site isn't made up of a bunch of twelve year olds who need to be told to quiet down. Many people i'm sure, always assumed a fair Halladay deal would get done dating back to last summer, pratically being a forgone conclusion. The Delgado '04 and beyond?' dicussion has been going on for a few days now, and has been extremely constructive with varying points of view. This isn't the Detroit Tigers where one NRI signing of a one legged pither is supposed to last a months chat. There's a lot going on, and where's the rule that adults can't enjoy that? Thanks for your time.

I was just wondering if something along the following could be done. I've seen some of the backloading of the jays contracts recently and don't have a problem with it, but what if the opposite could be done for Delgado. If Delgado was offerred a 3 year/40 million contract, does it make any difference to him if it is something like 13/13/14, or would he go for 15/13.5/11.5 This is still the same, yet as his age increases, he becomes more affordable and perhaps more tradeable should he decrease in his performance. This also helps the jays as the further along Delgado stays, they owe more to Halladay, Hinske, Wells, etc...
The same idea for a 4 year/50 million contract at maybe 15/13/12/10. Could this work or does it even make sense.

#138168 Posted 01/22/2004 01:09 PM by mathesond:
The contracts for Ricciardi, halladay, Hinske, and Wells all expire at the same time. I'm sure there's a reporter who is sniffing out a conspiracy in all this...
-------------------------------------
Watch this be a column Richard Griffin writes about within the next two weeks. We shouldn't give him ideas ;)

Re: Backloading

In last year's deflated market the Pirates were able to trade a good hit/bad defence third baseman with an expensive contract, Aramis Ramirez, to the Cubs and even managed to get a few prospects. Backloading gives the dumping team the opportunity to push more of a player's overall cost to the acquiring team. I use Ramirez as an example because although no Jay will be paid an exorbitant amount in their final contract year; bauxites have argued that Hinske will be overpriced at $5.6M in 2007 unless he significantly improves. Even if he is overpriced in 2007, a stacked Jays farm system allows the Jays to package a prospect with a Hinske in order to make a trade more palatable to whatever team in 2007 is shortminded like the Cubs were this year.

I understand everyone's concerns about backloading contracts but many people make the assumption that each player will be kept until his contract expires. Who knows what other internal options will be available to the Jays in a few years? If something better comes along, then it shouldn't be a problem to dump the player to someone else.

Re: Insurance

The Jays have insurance on all their players. I think the company is called AA or AAA, I'm not sure which. In fact, it may even be both. This is the same place where the Marlins shopped and were able to replace an injured Mike Lowell with Miguel Cabrera. I'm being facetious here but the point remains: why do the Jays need insurance when the farm system is stacked? Insurance would only give the Jays the money to try to obtain a replacement from an external source. More likely than not, if the team isn't in contention, the team would just pocket the money. The latter is what the Mets did when Mo Vaughn fell down and couldn't get back up. I see an injury as an opportunity to allow a highly touted (and cheap) rookie to show what he's got rather than a disaster that must be insured against.

P.S. It is a little known fact that almost all latent defects in electronic devices show themselves in the first year after purchase, while the product is covered by the manufacturer's warranty. Anyone who buys extended warranty from a retailer is a fool.

re: Reverse Backloading - I seem to recall Troy Aikman signing a loooooong term deal (7-8 years or so) in the early/mid 90's. Although football contracts are rarely guaranteed (plyers should only count on the first 2 years plus signing bonus), his deal was structured such that he received the most money in the middle years, before the salaries declined later on.

Naturally, in true NFL style, the contract was renegotiated

JP's strategy actually reminds me of an NFL GM - he's structuring contracts to fit in under the 2004 cap, damn the consequences!

Seriously, this is exactly the news I was hoping for when I woke up this morning. I agree that while this is another reason for us to love JP, I have a new appreciation for the Doc right now - a very classy guy, and a great representative for the franchise and the city. I hope things can be worked out with Carlos so that he can be around for the payoff as well.

http://me.woot.net
J.P.'s comments about his contract length lead me to believe that, in line with previous comments, he's not planning on staying on with the Jays past it. This is speculation, of course, but I'm willing to bet that he'll allow his contract to lapse and then go on to do whatever he wants for the rest of his life.

A great signing. I received so much flak for so long about my assertion that it was gonna end up being a 4 year 44 million dollar deal. I always thought that was a fair number. It looks like JP did a little better than I thought he would :-)

I also have a bit of a problem with the back-loading. It does seem to indicate to me that Delgado might not be here long-term, but we'll see. Rogers could always up the payroll. And also, any economist will tell you that if you owe X (i.e. 42 million) and you have to pay it back within a certain time (within 4 years), you're better off paying it back at the latest possible date (assuming no interest payments etc...). That allows you to use the money "saved" in the present for investments that could work against what you eventually owe. There's a snappy line that I've heard that explains the concept but I forget what it is. The same idea is one reason why players would rather get less money today than more money in deffered payments.

Hurray! Huzzah! Cheers! Wahoo!

Two things about this make me very happy:

- The best pitcher in the American League is locked up for the next four years.

- The best pitcher in the American League is willing to make a commitment to play here.

Yay, etc.!

http://www.immune26.tv
Roy Halladay & Al Lieter, what a difference.

As an old goat I remember the Jays nursing Al through all sorts of medical problems. Sticking with him, helping him, supporting him. The first milli-second he could leave he was gone in a shot.

Then you see Roy, we helped him rebuild himself, we supported him when he needed it, he turned into a world beater and he stays.

Makes up for Al and then some. A great moment for the Jays. Seriously, this could be the start of a dynasty.

#138175 Posted 01/22/2004 01:42 PM by Joe:
J.P.'s comments about his contract length lead me to believe that, in line with previous comments, he's not planning on staying on with the Jays past it. This is speculation, of course, but I'm willing to bet that he'll allow his contract to lapse and then go on to do whatever he wants for the rest of his life.
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How can you make a judgement like that on a comment Ricciardi made toungue and chhek? If he was planning to leave, you can rest assured he's not going to openly tell the Toronto media about it.

***takes bow***

No time to read the whole thread but I got to Mike's speculation about the '05 payroll...

It was reported widely last winter that Rogers intended for '04 to be at $50, '05 to be at $48, and then start easng back up. I don't know if the changing C$ will make a difference in that, but that was the reported plan.

How can you make a judgement like that on a comment Ricciardi made toungue and chhek? If he was planning to leave, you can rest assured he's not going to openly tell the Toronto media about it.

Ricciardi made a similar statement when Carlos Tosca received his two-year deal late in 2002. It was only a few weeks later that Ricciardi inked his five-year deal.

The only thing I'm reading from that statement is that Ricciardi is unoriginal. :-)

Here is my argument to the Radio Shack/ Future Shop 'Insurance.'

Although it is a rip off for something like a DVD Player or Computer Monitor because they already have +1 year warranties, the Radio Shack Insurance can be well worth it.

For example, I like music. This means that own a couple pairs of headphones. Now, when I go out and spend $30 to $60 on a pair of headphones OF COURSE I am going to get that insurance!

Why? Because the warranty on headphones is always ONE MONTH. What that tells me is that Sony knows that their headphones break after a month if used a fair bit. I use my headphones whenever I leave my house and they're always breaking... but, because I spent an extra $25, I get a discount on my next pair of headphones. By prepaying them $25, they're going to give me another pair of $60 headphones, within three years for, for only 25 bucks.

Seems like a great deal to me?!?

Oh course, it's only worth it on something that is going to break within three years. Headphones, remote control cars, stuff like that... just think about it.

Now, back to baseball! Great signing and kudos to Halladay for being a team player and helping out the team in 2004. I really hope that Delgado will do the same, but at a much great level... unfortunately.

Go Fighting Jays Go!

I just started to read more posts on this thread and found someone already mentioned headphones. Damn it! I thought I was the only one?!

Sorry for wasting your time. I jumped the gun!

What's the big deal about backloading. It's a simple case of matching performance with cost.

Also, the Jays had a 70 million budget for years. It the Jays start winning, draw the fans, and make the money, there is no reason why the budget wouldn't be expected to change.

To go a step further than that, the player's budget may be result based, not a percentage of revenue based. It's very possible that the 50 mill budget is a figure that JP gave Rogers. I beleive he comunicated that he could field an increasingly competative team with that budget until the prospects are ready.

JP took over in 2003. 25 million (approx) saving in 2003 left to accumulate interest at a modest rate of 5% = 26.25 in 2004. Obviously, Rogers would have better uses for 25 million than to let it sit in the back, but you get my idea. The savings in 27 million in 2005 etc. At a 10% discount rate, the accumulated savings would be over 100 million in 5 years. Not bad considering that the 20-25 million dollar savings had very little impact in the win total.

Now, assuming that there isn't a use-it-or-loose it mentality, the Jays have lots of money. Even with a modest overpayng for Delgado's performance (but still below market rate), the marketing and continuity factors of keeping him for the fans may justify it. Also, for the peak of the win cycle, the Jays can use 2003's savings to push the 2006 team over the hump.... perhaps a one-year loss would be required to ensure that the Yankee's beat out the Jays that year via expensive vetern trades/signings. (The Yankee's don't have a cycle)

I have no access to inside information and am basing all this on the instant 20-25 million drop in payroll when JP came into town. If this is the case, the plan is briliant.

".... perhaps a one-year loss would be required to ensure that the Yankee's beat out the Jays that year via expensive vetern trades/signings."

I meant that the Jays DO beat out the Yankees of course.

and back = bank...... but really both words fit if you imagine a big bag of money in the back. Sort of a lucky typo.

A great move by Ricciardi who continues to impress with his apt offseason moves. It's great to see HLH showing such interest in Toronto and the Jays. Hard to believe that a few years ago with ash we were expected to cheer when he signed Alex Gonzalez for four years at $16M and brought the payroll close to 80 million. Thank you JP.

I think there will be a nice fat gift in the mail on the way to the house of Mel Queen. Congrats Roy! You've earned it.

A quote from Fordin's article on the official site:

JP: "It's funny -- I was in a meeting today and the meeting was a little boring, so I went through the rotation for the first month. I think we've got him pitching five or six times on five days' rest. It looks like he can match up against Boston a lot, so it works out good for us."

Maybe I'm more easily bored than J.P., or just have too much time on my hands, but I went through that a while ago. Assuming it's Halladay, Batista, Lilly in the opening series vs. Detroit, there's an off day, so Hentgen, Doc and Batista could pitch in Boston. After another off day, they go Lilly, Hentgen, Halladay in Detroit. That's three series on full rest for everyone, without a fifth starter.

Batista opens vs. Baltimore, then finally, they need Towers on April 17, with Lilly on normal rest the next day. That lets Doc open the Red Sox series, followed by Batista and Hentgen (Pat would be going on three extra days of rest).

In Baltimore, it would be Lilly, Towers (Josh's first two starts are against the O's, who he despises) and Halladay, then in Minnesota it's Batista, Hentgen, Lilly. Towers would open in Chicago, with Doc getting his sixth start on the last day of the month. That's almost perfect -- six starts for the ace, five for the 2-3 guys, four for the old fella, three for the #5. Of course, there can be rainouts in April, so it's not carved in stone. I think it's reasonable to expect a 15-8 month, but I could live with 14-9.

If you follow that through to May, Doc will face the Royals twice, then the Red Sox twice more -- he catches them in all four of those critical early series -- then Anaheim (oh, for a matchup with Kelvim) and he would open the road trip in Seattle. If the Jays split their dozen games with Boston, they could be something like 30-21 heading into June.

Looking way ahead, if Roy doesn't mind being unavailable for the All-Star game, he could start the last day before the break, the first day after, and be set up to open two consecutive series against the Yankees. It's a very accomodating schedule.

Coach,that's a fine plan. Are you sure your last name is Williams and not Weaver? I think da Box needs a countdown to spring training box, seeing as the business of the off-season is just about done.

Would you rather match Hentgen against the BoSox or Lilly given his strong post-season start? It might be worth sliding Lilly to the fourth spot in the rotation if it gives them more of an edge in the first month. Of course it probably depends on what happens in spring training.

Mike, Aaron Gleeman's got one on his site, on the left near the top.

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040122.whalladay0122_3/BNStory/Sports/
Apparently the Jays are insuring Halladay's contract for approx. $1 million. Not sure if that's $1 million/year or $1 million in total. I suspect that would be an annual cost, which may be why the payroll is at $48 million, instead of $50.

COMN.

Are you sure your last name is Williams and not Weaver?

Mike, with all due respect to Earl, I'm a philosophical descendant of the Stengel/Herzog line. We have nothing against the three-run homer, but we'll scratch out a run if that's what it takes to win.

Coach, you've never played for one run ;-)

The Halladay signing has this grossly amusing side-effect. As I was sitting here watching the sports report, when the Halladay item came on my roommate, sitting next to me, just starts cracking up. So I ask her what's wrong and she points out the sound of the Halladay montage is the "whoosh" of the bat followed immediately by an "ahhh" from the crowd and, when pieced back-to-back-to-back-to-back strikeouts together...lets just say it doesn't sound kosher.

Sorry for poisoning a brilliant conversation but when Zoe gets a kick out of baseball, it should be widely documented.

Coach, Herzog was also very creative in setting up his pitching rotation, so I do believe that we have a match.