Should Carlos Delgado be signed to a long-term deal? A number of fans have been asking that here on Da Box recently. A lot of the discussion centers around how much Carlos Delgado will be worth at the end of a three- or four-year deal. Since Carlos's value is 90% dependent on his offensive production, the real question is how much we can expect him to hit at the end of such a contract... say, in 2007. So to help answer that, I did a very simple study.
My method was simple. Carlos was 31 in 2003, but because baseball ages are determined at July 1, he was as close to 30 as he was to 31 (Carlos was born on June 25, if you're looking to buy him birthday presents). He has 69 RCAA (Runs Created Above Average) last year. He's averaged 66 RCAA over the last four years, so it's not fluke production by any stretch.
So, I decided to look at every player who ever had between 60 and 80 RCAA in a season at age 30 or age 31, between 1950 and 1999 (to give time for the forward-looking part of the study, though it cuts off two very interesting and relevant comparisons).
I am not going to study defense, just hitting, so I just took everyone together in the analysis, and made position irrelevant. Also, most of the players were high-OBP, high-power sluggers like Delgado, and the presence of the occasional Boggs, Molitor, or Morgan isn't enough in my opinion to throw this off significantly.
There were 22 players in the study - in fact, 21 with Frank Robinson twice.
I think there are about 16 or 17 MVPs in that list. Anyways, offensively these are the players that compare best to Carlos's 2003. A few of these are somewhat fluky performances (Rico Carty most of all) but everyone on the list put up at least a few other seasons above 30 RCAA, and many are legendary hitters like Musial, Mays and Bonds... guys with distinctly better overall pedigrees than Carlos's so far.
I looked at what the 22 players did four years later. This, for Carlos, is his 2007
Incidentally, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield matched this profile in 2000, and this year will be their "Delgado 2007". It will be interesting to see what they are able to do. Our most recent examples - Bagwell, Belle, Biggio, Bernie, and Blubber - have not done well.
This is not an entirely heartening study. That performance line four years hence looks a little moth-eaten; and that's only the third year of a renewed Delgado contract. Worse, a fairly substantial number of the seasons we're seeing occasioned some pretty harmful contract offers from the teams. In not one of the 22 instances did the player match his performance of four years before; Paul Molitor's 1991 and Willie Mays's 1966 were the best seasons in the study but neither approached their previous mark (both were 16 off the pace). What's good news, though I didn't look at it yet, is that Year 4 actually looks better than Year 3 at a glance.
Overall, this group of players were very effective during the four years following their initial (benchmark) season, which bodes well for Carlos going forward of course. But by the time the fourth year hits, a number of these players are no longer performing at a high level. I think that merits some concern. As I have said before, Carlos Delgado's professionalism and dedication are all the insurance I would want on a new contract. But the ravages of age strike a player quickly, and the idea that such players lose roughly half their offensive value (compared to replacement level) in four years is a reminder.
My method was simple. Carlos was 31 in 2003, but because baseball ages are determined at July 1, he was as close to 30 as he was to 31 (Carlos was born on June 25, if you're looking to buy him birthday presents). He has 69 RCAA (Runs Created Above Average) last year. He's averaged 66 RCAA over the last four years, so it's not fluke production by any stretch.
So, I decided to look at every player who ever had between 60 and 80 RCAA in a season at age 30 or age 31, between 1950 and 1999 (to give time for the forward-looking part of the study, though it cuts off two very interesting and relevant comparisons).
I am not going to study defense, just hitting, so I just took everyone together in the analysis, and made position irrelevant. Also, most of the players were high-OBP, high-power sluggers like Delgado, and the presence of the occasional Boggs, Molitor, or Morgan isn't enough in my opinion to throw this off significantly.
There were 22 players in the study - in fact, 21 with Frank Robinson twice.
Player Year RCAA
Frank Robinson 1966 80
Carl Yastrzemski 1970 80
Joe Torre 1971 75
Jeff Bagwell 1999 74
Stan Musial 1952 74
Dick Allen 1972 73
Albert Belle 1998 72
Willie Stargell 1971 71
Craig Biggio 1997 68
Jack Clark 1987 68
Wade Boggs 1988 67
Paul Molitor 1987 66
Barry Bonds 1995 66
Harmon Killebrew 1967 64
Joe Morgan 1974 64
Frank Robinson 1967 64
Bernie Williams 1999 64
Ken Singleton 1977 63
Willie Mays 1962 63
Mike Schmidt 1980 62
Rico Carty 1970 61
Mo Vaughn 1998 60
I think there are about 16 or 17 MVPs in that list. Anyways, offensively these are the players that compare best to Carlos's 2003. A few of these are somewhat fluky performances (Rico Carty most of all) but everyone on the list put up at least a few other seasons above 30 RCAA, and many are legendary hitters like Musial, Mays and Bonds... guys with distinctly better overall pedigrees than Carlos's so far.
I looked at what the 22 players did four years later. This, for Carlos, is his 2007
Player Year RCAA Games
Frank Robinson 1970 38 132
Carl Yastrzemski 1974 38 148
Joe Torre 1975 -12 114
Jeff Bagwell 2003 21 160
Stan Musial 1956 41 156
Dick Allen 1976 7 85
Albert Belle 2002 0 0
Willie Stargell 1975 34 124
Craig Biggio 2001 17 155
Jack Clark 1991 17 140
Wade Boggs 1992 -1 143
Paul Molitor 1991 50 158
Barry Bonds 1999 40 102
Harmon Killebrew 1971 24 147
Joe Morgan 1978 6 132
Frank Robinson 1971 24 133
Bernie Williams 2003 3 119
Ken Singleton 1981 14 103 (strike year)
Willie Mays 1966 47 152
Mike Schmidt 1984 38 151
Rico Carty 1974 6 33
Mo Vaughn 2002 8 139
Average of 22 Players 21 124
Incidentally, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield matched this profile in 2000, and this year will be their "Delgado 2007". It will be interesting to see what they are able to do. Our most recent examples - Bagwell, Belle, Biggio, Bernie, and Blubber - have not done well.
This is not an entirely heartening study. That performance line four years hence looks a little moth-eaten; and that's only the third year of a renewed Delgado contract. Worse, a fairly substantial number of the seasons we're seeing occasioned some pretty harmful contract offers from the teams. In not one of the 22 instances did the player match his performance of four years before; Paul Molitor's 1991 and Willie Mays's 1966 were the best seasons in the study but neither approached their previous mark (both were 16 off the pace). What's good news, though I didn't look at it yet, is that Year 4 actually looks better than Year 3 at a glance.
Overall, this group of players were very effective during the four years following their initial (benchmark) season, which bodes well for Carlos going forward of course. But by the time the fourth year hits, a number of these players are no longer performing at a high level. I think that merits some concern. As I have said before, Carlos Delgado's professionalism and dedication are all the insurance I would want on a new contract. But the ravages of age strike a player quickly, and the idea that such players lose roughly half their offensive value (compared to replacement level) in four years is a reminder.
