Gleeman: If you're around, Aaron, I'd love to hear your impressions of Gomez from when he was a twin.

http://www.aarongleeman.com
If I'm around?! HA!

Here are my impressions of Gomez...

Don't expect Mike Bordick defensively. To me he looked, at best, average at shortstop, and I was actually surprised by some of his struggles at second base occasionally, although he is well above-average there.

He did a weird thing a lot where he would make the play at second base and then bobble or drop the ball, before making his throw to 1B. At 2B it's not as much of an issue obviously, and he didn't seem to have that problem as much at SS. He was very rough at third base, but that's due to him not playing much (at all?) there previously, most likely.

(All this is purely personal observation, I haven't look at his defensive #s at all)

Offensively he could be Bordick from 2003, although Gomez had almost zero plate discipline last year. He's basically a hacker. It seemed like he would often work counts into his favor and then blow it by swinging at a crap pitch that would either have given him a walk or an even better hitting count.

(Looking up his stats...) Yep, he walked 7 times in 185 plate appearances and one of them was intentional!

The good news is that he doesn't strike out much at all and he has some good doubles power. He was pretty much a dead pull hitter last year and he had a number of very hard hit balls right down the LF line, that either went foul or went for doubles and triples. I noted several times during the year that he did much better against fastballs (particularly in "fastball counts") than he did against off-speed stuff.

His speed isn't anything special, but he was a good baserunner. And, for what it's worth, he seemed like a good guy who was liked by the rest of the team. Plus, he looks identical to the batboy you guys had last year. When we played in Toronto they did a whole feature on the two of them on TV. They literally look identical, except one is 20 years older.

I think he's a good bet for a .260 AVG with a SLG somewhere around .390-.425. And he could post some decent OBPs if a team would stress some discipline to him. He used to have some, early in his career, but playing for Tampa Bay and then the Twins will sap a player of that.

That's about all I've got...

It sounds like Gomez does have some potential with the bat and if Barnett can pull another Greg Myers here then Chris might actually have the ability to be a valuable player. That's a pretty big if but not out of the realm of possibility if he can return to his patient ways and even use the opposite field a bit more.

I wasn't expecting anything special with the glove but as long as he doesn't embarrass himself out there that should be good enough.

Thanks for the near-Gleeman-length comment, Aaron.

Sounds like a good backup, but not really able to start for a serious stretch. Also he might not be the teacher that Bordick was, although as Woody and Hudson age, that might be less of an issue.

Comments about his defence were especially appreciated, since defensive numbers at small sample sizes are often useless. I take it he dealt OK with the turf in the Metrodome?

Here we depart from anything like my noraml stathead dogma, but does anyone have any thoughts on where he'll fit in the lineup when he plays? Normally 'fastball hitters' get put higher in the order, but I can't say I'd want someone with his OBP hitting first or second...

For that matter, what does the Jays' everyday lineup look like this year?

Hudson?
Sparky?
Wells
Delgado
Phelps
Hinske
Cat
Woodward
Cash

For that matter, what does the Jays' everyday lineup look like this year?

I would guess the batting order would be similiar to last year:

Johnson
Cat
Wells
Delgado
Phelps
Hinske
Woodward
Hudson
Cash

When Myers plays he'd be behind Phelps or Hinske with everyone sliding down a spot.

What'll be interesting is who will lead off when Gross and Rios are playing full time in the OF.

Actually a good argument can be made for Orlando at the top of the lineup (first or second) as long as the Jays are facing a righthanded pitcher. In 517 career at bats he's hit .300/.357/.462 against righties with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 13 homers, 72 rbi, 42 walks, 87 strikeouts. That's not bad at all. In fact, considering his defence that's excellent.

In 149 at bats against lefties in his career Hudson has a .431 ops. One has to wonder how he could possibly do worse if he abandoned the right side and hit exclusively as a lefty.

I'm in the O'Dog first bat/lefty only bandwagon.
Hinske should be second switching places with Cat.
This way, Gross and Rios could start batting 7 or 8, eventually having one of them advanced to the second spot. I read somewhere that Gross is somewhat clumsy jumping out the batter box, having good speed otherwise.

http://economics.about.com
Here's some stats you might find helpful. It's the 3-year MLBsplits for most of the Jays hitters:

Player	PSN	Bats	OBPvsR	SLGvsR	OBPvsL	SLGvL
Cash	C	R	.213	.190	.105	.194
Crash	C	L	.354	.465	.333	.430
Delgado	1B	L	.439	.625	.354	.424
Hudson	2B	S	.357	.462	.210	.221
Woody	SS	R	.317	.450	.300	.362
Hinske	3B	L	.365	.485	.301	.389
Cat	OF	L	.376	.492	.323	.343
Reed	OF	R	.348	.383	.366	.533
Phelps	OF	R	.348	.518	.372	.450
Wells	OF	R	.327	.506	.356	.486
Berg	UT	R	.308	.372	.310	.384
Clark	UT	L	.395	.429	.000	.000
Gomez	UT	R	.314	.418	.244	.327

Cheers,

Mike

http://economics.about.com
Oops.. Phelps should be listed as a DH, but I'm sure everyone knew that. :)

Chris Gomez? I'd much rather have Tomas Perez on my team.

Considering that the only southpaw starters in the division (other than our own Mr. Lilly) are Hendrickson, Daal and Riley, the lineup vs. RHP is almost "everyday," but it won't be carved in stone.

I understand the desire to put the F-Cat and the O-Dog at the top of the order, but Tosca loves Reed Johnson, so I expect Sparky to lead off and Cat to hit second. Wells-Delgado-Phelps-Hinske makes sense in a L-R context, but when Crash starts (either behind the plate or as the DH, with Josh sitting) he has been very effective from the 5-hole. When Myers is on the bench, Hudson-Woodward-Cash will be the bottom third.

Against southpaw starters, don't be surprised to see Berg at 2B, batting second, and the extra OF (Werth?) replacing Cat. If Woody is doing the job, I have no idea when or where Gomez will be plugged in, and if they carry an extra bat (Pond?) instead of a 12th pitcher, he won't get many starts unless there are injury problems.

Query: Has Dave Berg become redundant? Gomez and Clark essentially provide the same flexibility and defense with more offensive potential than Berg. With Gomez and Woodward being right-handed bats, Berg really adds no value to the team (except for when the team wants to sit both Hinske and O-dog against lefties). His roster spot could go to a Hermanson for some outfield defense or Pond to give the team a power lefty bat on the bench.

Well, I think I like Berg's bat better than Gomez's. And he is under contract for one more year (isn't he?), so I say keep him around. There's some value in having more than one utility infielder. If the Jays decide to go with Pond or an extra outfielder, it'll probably be at the expense of a pitcher, especially early in the season.

Offensively he could be Bordick from 2003, although Gomez had almost zero plate discipline last year. He's basically a hacker.

I've mentioned this before, it seems that Gomez used to be have plenty plate discipline, it tanked in 2001.

Season	TM	PA	BB	BB/PA	AVG	OBP	SLG
1994	Det	336	33	0.10	.257	.336	.402
1995	Det	482	41	0.09	.223	.292	.355
1996	Det	150	18	0.12	.242	.340	.305
1996	SD	378	39	0.10	.262	.349	.345
1997	SD	589	53	0.09	.253	.326	.326
1998	SD	516	51	0.10	.267	.346	.379
1999	SD	265	27	0.10	.252	.331	.308
2000	SD	64	7	0.11	.222	.306	.222
2001	SD	125	9	0.07	.188	.244	.214
2001	TB	206	8	0.04	.302	.332	.513
2002	TB	498	21	0.04	.265	.305	.410
2003	Min	185	7	0.04	.251	.279	.354
Total	--	3935	323	0.08	.253	.320	.360

I pointed this out to my brother and he pointed out that the crash in walk rate corresponds with Gomez switching leagues, and this makes sense in a way. Chris likely batted 8th a lot in the NL, and it sounds reasonable to me that it would be easier to draw a walk when the pitcher is up behind you. But this doesn't explain the fact that he had a good walk rate early in his career, in the AL. Maybe the key is the initial success Chris had with the bat in the AL - maybe he changed his approach entirely, thinking he had suddenly become a slugging .300 hitter. This sounds like something Mike Barnett may be able to correct. Thoughts?

I agree that Pistol's projected lineup will likely be Tosca's as well (barring dramatic changes in spring training, such as a promotion to the bigs for Rios).

A few comments:

- I like Reed Johnson, but if he's going to lead off, can someone teach him to walk?

- In theory, O-Dog could lead off against righthanders, based on his career splits (.300/.357/.462 against RHP). Reed could lead off against LHP (His admittedly small-sample numbers against LHP: .328/.366./533)

- Myers had a great 2003, and I wouldn't mind seeing him hit sixth or seventh behind Phelps/Hinske when he is catching (about a third of the time?). I have a hard time seeing him as a #5 hitter though.

- In games when the Jays are facing a LHP, the bottom of Pistol's (and/or Tosca's) projected order is downright brutal. Three-year splits: Woodward (.229/.300/.362), Hudson (.168/.210./.221), and Cash (not enough for meaningful sample, but questions abound). Incidentally, should Hudson even be allowed to hit against LHP?

- Should Delgado be playing 161 games in 2004? My sense is that his body is taking a serious beating.

http://www.baseballstuff.com/tangotiger/UZR0003.html
For what it's worth, MGL's latest UZR numbers have Gomez as the fifth-worst defensive SS in baseball in a weighted analysis of the last 4 years. COMN for the complete set (Chris Woodward grades out as 1 run above average).

Batting Order?

Right around the time of Catalanatto re-signing, wasn't there a comment by Ricciardi, stating that Cat would probably be the one likely to do the leading off in '04? In print, radio... I'm pretty sure there was. Even then, maybe LaRus...er Tosca will play his boy there regardless.

For my money, Delgado and Hinske are the true OBP high-value guys in the lineup, in that regardless of batting avg's they will consistently walk, and are perfectly content to do so. Delgado always hits fourth and somewhere before Carlos comes to bat I still fail to see, even a year later, why you wouldn't want Hinske hitting ahead of him. The fetish with a perfect Lefty/Righty line-up aside, there's lots of power guys to hit behind Delgado to drive in those RBI's that were supposed to be the selling point behind moving Hinske there in the first place ('03).

I'm of the opinion you'll get a 'fuller' performance from Eric talents if he's left in a position in the order where he'll always work the count and take his walks without having to worry about having a lesser hitter (Hudson, Woodward, even Myers) strand him and other runners onbase when he may feel he could have delivered had he'd just swung the bat rather than passed the baton as a table setter. To me his '02 and '03 plate approachs were not the same, and I thouroughly enjoyed watching everyone of his AB's in '02, sort of a mini-Giambi.

I hope that came out right.

He was pretty much a dead pull hitter last year and he had a number of very hard hit balls right down the LF line

and

It sounds like Gomez does have some potential with the bat and if Barnett can pull another Greg Myers here then Chris might actually have the ability to be a valuable player.

Ah, yup. Paging Dr. Barnett... paging Dr. Barnett... if he (or someone) can convince Gomez to WAIT a split second, and drive that pitch to right-centre (instead of down the LF line) we may indeed have Crash 2 : Electric Boogaloo. In his good years, Gomez has had good power for a shortstop but a low OBP (his batting numbers in his good years are actually eerily reminiscent of Chris Woodward's usual numbers).

Right around the time of Catalanatto re-signing, wasn't there a comment by Ricciardi, stating that Cat would probably be the one likely to do the leading off in '04

I don't remember this, though I think it's possible. To me, it doesn't make much odds who leads off, Sparky or Cat, provided Johnson can hit as well as he did in 2003. Cat is a better OBP guy when healthy, but the on-base difference between Catalanotto at his best and Johnson's 2003 is not large. But Cat has more power, which may be useful in the #2 slot. Sparky-Cat-Wells (or Cat-Sparky-Hinske) should put a few runners aboard for Carlos.

What would be a greater challenge to Catalanotto, is to bat him sixth behind Josh Phelps and challenge him to drive in runs. You could move Hinske to the top of the order, protecting him with Vernon Wells' bat, and have a lineup of Johnson-Hinske-Wells-Delgado-Phelps-Catalanotto, with Crash hitting seventh.

What I would love to see, regardless of the rest of the order, is Hudson hitting ninth with the direct encouragement to become a tablesetter for the top of the order. Challenging Hudson to become a leadoff-type hitter might help him become the solution to the Jays' most perplexing offensive dilemma going forward - the lack of a true leadoff man for the future.

Turning a middle infielder into a leadoff hitter - especially on a team with young power-hitting centerfielders - is a great thing to do for the future. When you have a leadoff man who plays the infield, it allows you to use all three outfield positions on power hitters, instead of (1) "wasting" a bunch of home runs in the leadoff spot; or (2) putting a leadoff hitter in a corner outfield spot that you could use instead for a more complete offensive player.

Completely agree about Hudson, Craig... he seems to have a great attitude and I'm sure would be only too eager to learn the leadoff trade.

Crash 2 : Electric Boogaloo

Great line Craig. I wonder how many other bauxites will get the obscure 80s reference.

Before Breakin' and the superior Electric Boogaloo, you didn't know that the power of breakdancing could save entire communities, did you?

Ahhh, the 80's.

(insert Moffatt Atari 2600 reference here)

and have a lineup of Johnson-Hinske-Wells-Delgado-Phelps-Catalanotto, with Crash hitting seventh.

Can't you just smell the fear coming from the other team's starting pitcher?

I can't wait for opening day.

Re Craig B's suggested lineup:

I think Hinske would be a good #2 hitter, especially with his extra-base power and good OBP. My concern is that he strikes out a lot for a #2, whereas Cat has a similar OBP, but makes more contact.