http://www.baseballstuff.com/tangotiger/mah/DRA7401.pdf
This is a hijack thread. So, this is nothing about winning back the hearts of Torontonians.

Tango has created a link to Mike Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis ratings by position for 1974-2001 (COMN). The All-Star Defensive lineup according to DRA:

1b- Keith Hernandez
2b- Glenn Hubbard
ss- Ozzie
3b- Terry Pendleton
lf- Barry Bonds
cf- Andruw Jones (by a country mile)
rf- Jesse Barfield (by a country mile)
c- Ivan Rodriguez

Dave Concepcion's defense was, according to this measure, very, very good- Craig B take note re his HoF argument.

What I most like about DRA is that it is easily adaptable to the analysis of minor leaguers' defence. I'm sold that it is at least a worthly addition to the numerous tools we have for defensive evaluation. At best, it will become, as MGL suggests, the gold standard of defensive metrics. Between DRA and Mike Emeigh's play-by-play analysis, our understanding of defence is improving significantly.

http://www.mcsweeneys.net/links/lists/torontojays.html
Click on the homepage for the key to renewed Blue Jays popularity.

One other thing about the DRA results. Mark Belanger's results in the early 70s are amazing. Belanger was apparently as good in his mid-late 30s as Ozzie was in his prime. He sure wasn't as spectacular, but it seems that Belanger's defensive reputation was fully merited.

What will the Jays have to do to win back the hearts and minds of Torontonians?

I hope all they have to do is win. What else is there for them to do?

A work stoppage in hockey might help. Declines by the Yankees and/or Red Sox might help. Expanded playoffs in MLB (not that I want to see it) might help. A new stadium might help, not that I think one is really needed, or that there's a chance in hell of getting one.

It also might help if the team didn't save its worst performances for sold-out home games, and if they could get off to a good start for the first time in a few years.

http://economics.about.com
I hope all they have to do is win. What else is there for them to do?

• Better advertising/PR?
  
• Better product? By this I don't mean the 25 player line-up, but the whole atmosphere. They could find a way to get more participation, they could encourage Aaron and the Cheer Club, they could find a way to cut out some of the deadtime between the action.
  
• Lower ticket/souvenir/food prices?
  

Overall I think the Jays have done a good job over the last couple years. Last year's ads were great, and the SARS promotion and Toronto Star Season Pass are a great way to encourage people to come to more games.

I really wish they'd get rid of the downright creepy J-Cru and bring back to old mascot, but I don't think these would make much of a difference either way.

Cheers,

mike

cf- Andruw Jones (by a country mile)

Interestingly, I just read a post by Gary Huckabay (of Baseball Prospectus) to the Scoresheet Talk yahoo group where he points out that Andruw Jones is now a BELOW-AVERAGE centrefielder.

Here is the quote:
Andruw Jones' defense has been on a steady arc. This year, he was
18th out of 20 in Zone Rating among MLB CFs with enough playing time
to qualify. His numbers over the years:

Year---ZR----RF
1998--.922--2.84
1999--.900--3.15
2000--.883--2.82
2001--.888--2.95
2002--.876--2.71
2003--.840--2.70

Jones has gone from one of the best defenders ever to grace the
field to a below average defender. I'll certainly grant that ZR and
RF aren't the be-all and end all of defense, but taken together, and
with the other data available, it's difficult to come to any
reasonable conclusion that Jones is even an average CF defensively.

Thanks, Mike. That DRA data is just amazing. Personally, I now see DRA as the gold standard, although I recognize that UZR has a strong claim as well.

2b- Glenn Hubbard

(Rolls eyes)

Oh, come on. I know that Hubbard was a very good defender, but Glenn Hubbard is well-known as the shibboleth of defensive metrics. If your metric is showing that Hubbard is a better defender than (say) Frank White, there's some fine-tuning to do. I'd be interested in knowing how off-the-charts Hubbard's weird-looking 1985 is historically.

Look at Hubbard, and then look at Dale Murphy (easily the "worst" centerfielder in the study, but a five-time Gold Glover) and you realize quickly the shortcomings of DRA - the inability to adjust for the GB/FB tendencies of a pitching staff.

That said, I love DRA because despite my scepticism, it reproduces other, more elaborate metrics without needing PBP data. It's a terrific system. The other recommendations for an All-Defense team look pretty darn good to me... there's no one there I wouldn't consider in the Top 5 or so. (Hubbard's probably the seventh- or eighth-best defensive 2B of that time, and DRA nails the top 8 perfectly... White, Randolph, Alomar, Whitaker, Grich, Sandberg, plus Hubbard and Reynolds).

The CF listings, with Maddox, White, Murphy, Butler, Lofton and Lemon all ranked highly, are also very good - though Murphy and Rick Manning should rank as good, not bad.

The SS ratings are of course very good. Every one of those top 10 guys was a marvelous shortstop, and the two best are at the top.

3B is excellent, again the best guys are on top (Wallach, Schmidt, Pendleton all marvelous) and the worst guys near the bottom (Chipper, Lansford, Sprague, Brook Jacoby)

The corner outfield rankings look OK, though I'm surprised at some of them.

1B is a problem area, as one would suspect. Buckner and Karros were indifferent, and Snow, Mattingly, Galarraga and Garvey were wonderful, and McGwire was pretty good. The real dogs (Cooper, Thompson, Perez, Vaughn) don't get punished very much.

Most of the catcher ratings look OK. Piazza's numbers are a reminder that he plays the position well except for throwing. Lance Parrish seems a little high to me, Porter and Pena a bit low. And yes, those Texas catchers really were that bad. I have never seen a team with such a problem finding competent backstops... Slaught, Brummer, Petralli (especially Petralli), Marv Foley, Donnie Scott, Ned Yost, Bob Johnson, Orlando Mecado, Mike Stanley (especially Stanley)... what a horror show. When Hough or Bobby Witt was on the mound, it would get really comical.

http://economics.about.com
Since this is completely OT, I thought I'd share an e-mail.

I get a *lot* of e-mail through the About site. Most of it is terrific; well-thought out questions, intelligent praise or criticism of an article, or just some economic issue someone wants to get off of their chest. Occasionally I get an e-mail like this, that truly makes me laugh:

---
Mike:
The reason jobs are "CRAP" is because all the good jobs have
left and gone off shore.

Except for my shoes, Military Boots and socks from Wigwam, all the rest of my clothes are "Imported".

And with no choice. there are "NO" American alternatives. Same with
"ALL" Appliances, Cars, Trucks, etc. etc. and our so call government
condones this 1,000%.

Now I'll tell you something you don't know. Our Federal Bank is Owned by Germany.

In 1913, President Woodrow Wilson signed the Fed Bill pushed through by 9 congressman who stayed after all had gone home and through proxy vote the fed was "Hached" .

President Wilson 6 months later said, " I have sold out my country".

The first Fed manager was a German Bank Manager. We pay $241,000.00 in interest for every $60,000.00 that is circulated.

That is why we owe so much interest, and have so much debt to pay all the time. the Federal Government just doesn't tell who we really owe the money to. Don't believe me??

Go to Ask Jeeves and type the fed signing 1913 and see for yourself.

We Americans are "Plantation Slaves" to the Fed Bank.
---

I love my job. :)

Since defense is the topic of the day......here is a bit of the Columbus Clipper email newsletter I just recieved.... I was a bit shocked and couldn't decide what form of illegal substance the writer was on....is this the appropriate response for me to have....starts now:

The only signing this week has been John Rodriguez. The rumors are that the Clippers could sign Homer Bush for this season. Homer played for us in 1997. He is the best fielding second baseman I have ever seen. Better than Mazeroski. Better than Alomar. Better than Sanberg. As an official scorer, I once gave Bush an error on what looked like a routine ground ball, until I realized that he was standing on the shortstop's side of second.

Another time, I saw first baseman Ivan Cruz dive over the bag, just missing a ball hit down the line. Suddenly, Bush flashed behind him, fielded the ball in foul territory, spun 360 degrees and threw out the batter at first base! I couldn't believe my eyes.

Homer was a pretty good hitter also. In four of his first five years in the majors, he hit .364, 380, .320, and .306. But injuries plagued him. He retired in spring training last year. I think he was with the Cardinals at the time. But at 31 years of age, he is looking to make a comeback.

To once again get the heart of Torontonians, I think the following would help:

1. Obviously, put a pennant contender on the field. The Jays attendance began to rise in 1983--the first year the team was competitive in the American League East (Just look at the terrible attendance figures in 1981 and Paul Beeston's comments in Diamond Dreams). Of course, becoming a pennant contender is easier said than done, but J.P. is on the right track!

2. The Blue Jays marketing has to become more fan-friendly. Again, management has made excellent strides towards this goal. I remember when attendance figures began to dwindle, the ticket office still acted like they were doing us a favor by selling us tickets. It took them a long time to realize that we were the client, not them.

3. Finally, people associate the successful Blue Jays with the original logo. I propose that the Jays go back to their 1989 uniforms and logo. The new logo and colors have nothing to do with the Jays. Just look at all the stuff with the original logo that still sells!

Torontonians need a reason to believe in baseball. Even coming close to a wild card or two might not be enough to solve all their worries. As long as there is the overwhelming feeling in most casual sports fans that the team can't compete while spending as little as one third of what the big boys are spending.

The Jays have to do everything in their own power to make themselves appear profitable and not take the Rogers' tack of doing everything to make themselves appear to be losing as much money as possible. While that might superficially help where revenue sharing is concerned it does nothing for consumer confidence. People buy from companies that appear to be doing well; seldom from those apparently having financial issues.

First and foremost, I think they have to find a way to resolve their lease with SkyDome because that has to be killing them. Rogers has now owned the team for a good three years and JP has been the GM for two years but we haven't heard much on this front. Maybe there IS nothing that can be done but the Jays' have to have more rights to their park related revenues. In turn that will give them more incentive to adjust prices and extend even more special offers to maximize attendance.

Second, despite the fact that it's against "the plan" I think an additional commitment of $10 million in payroll would do wonders for the team. Whether they have to partner up with someone to share ownership or whatever, you can spend a certain amount less than Boston and NY but you can't spend prohibitively less when they have front offices that know what they're doing and have virtual blank cheques. I mean even at THIS point in the off-season they could go out and sink that money into Urbina and Maddux, or even Pudge Rodriguez and have a team that much stronger and credible in the eyes of the players and fans alike. And it wouldn't even cost them compensation. Just like in the movies, it's the names that impress a casual fan...if the Jays can afford a name or two they should try to make it happen.

Get into the post-season.

Torontonians have to believe that this team has a chance of winning it all (just like was the case in the late 80's and early 90's). We really felt like we had as good a chance as anyone to win it all...That feeling is lost. And, in saying that, making it into the post-season may not be enough...Every year there seems to be a team where it all comes together (Florida, Anaheim)...then there's a drop-off the next season. The Jays have to be a STRONG contender year in and year out for the fans to start coming back the same as yesteryear...

Tall order? You bet.

Changing back to the old logo and spending an extra $10 million are pipe dreams, and resolving the lease issues may also be impossible. We can hope for a SARS-free spring and summer; early playoff exits for the Leafs and Raptors might help, but I'm not going to root against them.

The Jays' schedule is much more forgiving this year, making a fast start quite possible. If they split with Boston, take 4 of 6 vs. Baltimore and 5 of 6 vs. Detroit, they will have a 12-6 record with their next 16 games against AL Central teams. June could be challenging, with a Seattle-Oakland road trip followed by 12 games against the NL West (everyone but Colorado). Still, it's not a stretch to expect the Jays to be several games above .500 for most of the first half.

By the time they face the Yankees, after the All-Star break, those games could mean plenty in the standings, which would be reflected at the turnstiles. I agree with Matthew -- the 2003 team played poorly almost every time there was a huge crowd, which was most unfortunate and did nothing to build momentum among "casual" fans. They need to send the big crowds home happier, so taking two of three July 26-28 will be a step in the right direction. If the wild card is at stake in the October series with the Yanks, tickets will be as hard to come by as they were in '92 and '93.

Craig B, those are interesting comments about the Braves 75-85, and in particular the Murphy and Hubbard ratings. The presence of Niekro, Camp, and at various points, Mahler, Bedrosian, Pascual Perez and Craig McMurtry did make this predominantly a ground ball staff. Fulton County Stadium was a launching pad and the Braves did tailor their pitching staff to the park. However, Gary Matthews' DRA improved from 76 to 77 when he moved from SF to Atl. Burroughs DRA did decline when he moved from Texas to Atl.

I'd be very interested to see what Moreno's DRA was in 1986 for Atlanta.

At the time, I felt subjectively that Murphy had won all those Gold Gloves partly with his bat. DRA shows Willie McGee as a better centerfielder in 84-85, and that was my impression watching them, albeit that the difference was not as large as suggested. I would have Murphy as a modestly below average defensive centerfielder, and certainly not the worst of the era.

You have to look carefully at the corner OFs to evaluate them. In right-field, Jesse Barfield was the class of the field (curiously Kirk Gibson's name does not appear on the list, but Jesse was quite a bit better). Winfield and Parker were obviously quite good as young ballplayers, but played the OF well after their primes. The surprise is that Manny Ramirez who was considered a poor OF from day one, comes off looking so well (and Kenny Lofton looks only average in CF). Perhaps it is because the Indians' staff was all right-handed and DRA does not adequately adjust for handedness of the pitching staff.

However, Albert Belle's rating in LF is better than I would have expected. It is hard to explain why Belle and Ramirez would be rated higher than Lofton, and particularly so when the other centerfield ratings (other than Murphy's) seem accurate.

Looks promising...(COMN)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1712802
Oops...(COMN)

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2517
Baseball Prospectus's Joe Sheehan deems Miguel Batista one of the best FA signings this winter. (COMN for story, but it's a subscription-only article.)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1713598
The trade that'll never die.....COMN.

Speier is signed, for $1.6 million.

Pipe Dream No. 3.

Put grass, or real looking fake grass in the Dome. Not going to happen, at least according to they guy who runs the Dome, but it'd be nice.

Oggman: I don't think the no-grass thing is a question of will; I think there's absolutely no way to do it. There's no sun most of the time, for one thing, and it makes using the place for anything other than baseball difficult at best; I'm not even sure you'd still be able to reconfigure the seats. But I think the biggest problem is with irrigation. Could you irrigate the Dome? Doesn't it have basements and stuff that get in the way of that?

I remember Godfrey addressing the question of FieldTurf in an online chat. He said that at the moment the turf at SkyDome was still pretty new, so it'd be a while before it was time to replace it. When that time came, they'd probably look into FieldTurf, but by then there might even be something better than FieldTurf on the market.

So we'll see.

Androgynous Names of Former Toronto Blue Jays

How could they forget Dale Murray? McSweeney's rocks.

With Speier signed (for a very reasonable amount), that now leaves only Mr. Halladay to be brought into the fold. That will take a little longer, of course. I expect the two sides will exchange arbitration numbers before reaching an agreement -- but reach one they almost certainly will. This team is not going to take The Franchise to arbitration; at worst, they'll settle on a one-year deal.

Is it really "Torontonians?" That's too long.

And to answer the original question: keep winning and challange for a division title (or at least a wild card). Toronto has finished within 14 games of first only once since winning the WS.

Win, baby.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=68901
Sorta off topic, but the Expos (read MLB) have agreed to put Field Turf into the Big Owe. You have to think this was one of the demands made by the players in exchange for another year of the San Juan Expos.

Minor hijack:

they could encourage Aaron and the Cheer Club...

What's this all about? I've visited Aaron's cryptic website and heard mention of the Cheer Club occasionally here at Da Box. If it involves getting a Star pass and shouting until you're hoarse most nights, I know some people who'd be interested, including myself.

Introducing your 2004 Fisher Cat third baseman: Robert Cosby

(Despite the minor losses in translation, the article reads pretty well, eh?)

From the Fisher Cats website:

"The New Hampshire Fisher Cats are proud to announce they will be hosting a fans’ town meeting with Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi on Thursday, February 5, 2004. The event will take place at Frost Hall on the campus of Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester from 7:30 pm to 9 pm.

The event is a free, invitation-only event open to the first 200 fans who sign up for the event by emailing their RSVP to baseballinfo@nhfishercats.com starting on Thursday, January 15. The first 200 fans to RSVP will be sent an invitation to the event early next week.

Ricciardi, also the vice president of baseball operations for the Jays, will be on hand to introduce fans to the Blue Jays farm system and explain how the Fisher Cats fit in to the system. Ricciardi will also give Fisher Cats fans a sneak peek at players who may be in Manchester for the 2004 season."

Any local New Hampshire bauxites able to attend?

Alex, you nailed it. That's what it's all about.

Season's Pass optional -- just come out and be loud with us, try to wake up that dull ol' Dome.

And I apologize for the nothingness of the website...no time for fun for me right now.

Yo I will not bat 350, but the numbers are there.

I love Web translations. Truly. (Though this one is indeed better than many I've read.)

Cosby hasn't shown up on any Blue Jays prospect lists (mine included), and I don't think he's major-league calibre, but he does have talent. As the article says, 34 doubles are pretty good, especially for the Florida State League, and he began to show a minimally acceptable batting eye this year (46 BB in 467 AB). For all that, though, he'll be 23 next April, and unless he pulls a Simon Pond and develops a power stroke in a hurry, he looks more like an organization man at this point. Double-A is a good test for him at his age.

http://espn.go.com/gen/news/2004/0120/1714001.html
Jordan, you know that "Yo" means "I" in Spanish, but it's still cool to see it as a hip-hop article.

President Bush weighs in on 'roids in sports (COMN). Do I see a nice, safe election issue? Heck, even I agree with him.

Did the Tigers invite you to big-league camp? No? Too bad! They invited everyone else...

Brent Abernathy, Rayner Bautista, Danny Klassen, Warren Morris, Greg Norton, Pablo Ozuna, Dean Palmer, Jason Smith, Jeff Inglin, Marcus Thames, Andres Torres, Bobby Estalella, Ben Petrick, Mike Rabelo, Guillermo Rodriguez, Maxim St. Pierre, Jorge Cordova, David
Cortes, Craig Dingman, John Ennis, Shane Loux, Ariel Prieto, Brian Schmack, Adrian Burnside and Andy Van Hekken.

I expect my invitation from Tram in the mail sometime tomorrow.

Here's what it takes to bring back the fans -

WIN BABY, WIN!!!!

Here's what brought me back as a fan:

Cheap tickets combined with an exciting team to watch.

I was looking for things to do last summer that fit into my miniscule summer entertainment budget. Then I randomly saw an ad for the Toronto Star Season's Pass in the Globe and Mail. I figured we'd go to a couple dozen games.

Nope. In the first couple of weeks, I was hooked. Especially after that 10-9 comeback victory, they had me. I ended up going to 66 games, and had I not spent my anniversary on a ten day holiday to Trinidad and Tobago, I probably would have gone to more.

I agree that the team's meltdowns on opening day / $1 night / $2 night probably killed a lot of fan interest. The cheap tickets got them in, but they didn't see the team play the way that they did on those glorious nights where they caught fire. Bad luck, really. But I think if the Jays stick with the current game plan and offer more cheap/free tickets (like the Pizza Pizza deal -- buy a pizza, get four free tickets), more fans will come and more fans will stick. I don't think that they're doing anything wrong with their current promotions, except maybe that the 50 game reward was an autograph session and then the 65 game reward was a Kevin Costner videotape...come on now, is Kevin Costner worth more than a chance to briefly meet Frank Catalanotto, Reed Johnson and Josh Towers? (But don't switch the order -- 50 games is a reachable target for a lot of city dwelling Season's Pass holders, and that was a really fun reward.)

Aquilino Lopez is STARTING! He pitched SIX(!) innings yesterday for Ciabao in the Dominican Winter League finals yesterday, without giving up a run (5 H, 4 K, 2 BB). I wonder if Jays management gave the okay, and if so, does the organization think Lopez has what it takes to be an effective starter in the majors?

(That was his first start this offseason; His playoff stats, through Jan. 19, were: 2.93 ERA, 12 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 15 IP in relief)

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2004/01/21/jesse_orosco_retires_after_25_years/
Jesse Orosco has retired. Really.

COMN for story.

Aquilino Lopez is STARTING!

In 2002, Lopez was a swing man in AAA, making 11 starts (plus 23 relief appearances) and pitching 109.1 innings. That versatility and durability is what makes him so valuable -- he can bounce back very quickly from a two-inning stint.

I notice that he's still only 23 over at the Baseball Cube. He's actually going to be 29 in April.

Isn't his mis-reported age part of how the Jays ended up with him?

I knew that Aquilino has been a spot-starter before (in the M's organization), but seeing a six-inning stint, now, after a long season (majors + winter ball) in which he'd been used solely in relief, has me wondering (many things...among which: how's his arm going to hold up, this season?)

Yeah, the Mariners (I think it was the Mariners) were reportedly pretty pissed when they found out his real age and booted him from the 40-man roster as soon as they could. Their loss.

http://www.tsn.ca/headlines/main_story.asp?id=69153
Very early reports that Halladay has signed, four years at 42 million. COMN.

I had suggested a 4 year 40 mil contract would be in order earlier on. At any rate, this seems very fair for both sides. Doc's now signed, I believe, for the remainder of JP's contract with the Jays.

Would the alleged six million this year leave open the possibility of another signing?

I just got the '04 Blue Jays Group Sales Calendar in the mail. (Last year I bought tickets to a bunch of late-season games to give away with large purchases at the store here, so I'm on the mailing list.)

First of all, I don't know if they've always done a calendar, but this one is pretty nice.

It has a list of all of the promotions for the year. Most of them are your standard Bobbleheads, Mr. Sub Sports Bags, T-Shirts and other goofy baseball junk, but a couple of the giveaways are actually pretty neat:

May 9th: Shower Curtain (damn, I just bought a shower curtain!)
August 28th: 1977 Retro Cap
September 4th: Vernon Wells Lunchbox

Okay, so those are all goofy baseball junk too, but it's the kind of junk that appeals to me.

June 11th to 13th, however, is Spider-Man weekend. Now, the part of me that loves Spider-Man and has ever since I was addicted to that Ralph Bakshi cartoon is excited about this, but there's this other part of me that wonders exactly what they're going to do at the 'Dome to celebrate Spider-Man weekend. I'm slightly worried.

(How much do I love Spider-Man? I got into photography primarily because it was Peter Parker's day job, and if I couldn't be Spider-Man, I could at least be Peter Parker. Also, in a truly bizarre coincidence, I am wearing Spider-Man boxer shorts right now.)

Did they have Gay Community Day last year? I don't remember it; anyways, it's on the 25th of June. If it's new, I think it's another interesting attempt to coax a group of people to the park who might not otherwise attend. I have no idea of how it will go over, but it sure is a different idea for a theme night at a baseball game.

And lastly, will they be giving out free liquor on October 1st? 'cuz it's LCBO Day.

And I was just checking out the school group discounts -- they're great! Field level baseline seats for $10 each.

Does anyone with a deeper understanding of the Jays' revenue streams have any insight into when "winning back Torontonians' hearts" start to turn into tangible financial advantages for the club?

Put another way, is attendance the key? A better TV deal? Revenue sharing? What's the #1 revenue goal for the Jays to target this season?

Mike D's question reminds me of a source of revenue the Jays don't seem to be tapping very well. Living in Edmonton, I am a big Jays fan but I have never been to a Jays game in Toronto. Once the Expos finally are killed off, the Jays will be Canada's only ML baseball team. As well, I think there are only 1 or 2 A - AAA teams (and the Trappers are leaving next year). This is an audience of 30 million people - most of whom will not ever make up part of the game attendance - for which the Jays should have the inside track on capturing as fans. Obviously, they are also potential sources of revenue (TV, gear, etc).

From my perspective I would like to see the Jays spend more effort out west trying to generate some interest. Maybe have some of the players come out in the offseason, maybe have some of the prospects play an exhibition here, maybe even offer some type of deal to make it cheaper or more special to fly out to see a game.

On an unrelated note - I have not heard anything about Chad Ricketts (sp?) the Canadian pitcher we got with Luke P. I know he hurt his arm. Anyone know if he has recovered?

Did they have Gay Community Day last year? I don't remember it; anyways, it's on the 25th of June.

Carlos Delgado's Birthday!

will they be giving out free liquor on October 1st? 'cuz it's LCBO Day

Maybe just empty bottles so we can pelt the Yankees as we beat them and clinch the division.

***

On another note, I am going to celebrate early as I see our counter is about to click past 400,000 in the next couple of days. Thanks to all of you for visiting, your interest and enthusiasm and your contributions all make running the site a great joy.

I have not heard anything about Chad Ricketts

He's no longer in the Jays organization. Played a little independent league ball last summer, without much success, and was on the Canadian team in the World Cup in Cuba. I'm not sure he was on the Olympic qualifying squad in Panama, and I have no idea whether he's fully recovered from his arm troubles.

If guys like Adam Loewen, Jeff Francis and Vince Perkins are allowed to go to Athens by their parent teams, Ricketts would be a longshot to make the Olympic roster. The more AAA types, the better for our medal chances. As much as I'm rooting for Simon Pond to get a chance in the Show, he'd be a bigger asset to Team Canada.

Does anyone with a deeper understanding of the Jays' revenue streams have any insight into when "winning back Torontonians' hearts" start to turn into tangible financial advantages for the club?

Put another way, is attendance the key? A better TV deal? Revenue sharing? What's the #1 revenue goal for the Jays to target this season?

I have no such deeper understanding, but I have the idea that corporate boxes and corporate season tickets might be areas that are particularly lagging behind. I'm simply not hearing about as many corporate yuppie weasel types leaving after the seventh inning as I used to.

Attendance has to be the main focus, I think. More people in the stands even makes the game seem livelier on TV. Attendance pushes everything else.

I don't think the Jays will ever officially have a lucrative TV deal as long as Rogers owns them.

Craig B, A propos of Dale Murphy's defence, I posed a question to Michael Humphreys in the Primate Studies about Murphy's low DRA and the extreme groundball tendencies of the Atlanta pitching staff of the time. Michael H points out that other Atlanta CFs of the time had significantly better DRAs than Murphy. In his opinion, Murphy was a below average defensive centerfielder.

Authors, the minorleaguebaseball.com website is superior to BA or espn.com for research purposes. All boxscores from last year can be viewed with ease, which makes answering questions about items like Derek Nunley's health easier. It will also be easier to track progress during the year.

Yes, Mike... far superior. I love using milb.com - it would be even better if the pages didn't take so long to load (the one advantage of using BA).

On another totally unrelated note, I have a hijack... Russell Branyan got a minor-league deal from the Atlanta Braves (with their 3rd-base sinkhole still intact). Branyan is a guy who has become defined by what he can't do (make consistent contact) rather than by what he can (Og hit ball far, and he plays third base much better than he once did, plus he plays all the other corner spots as well).

Anyone got some other players who have become completely defined by who they aren't, rather than by who they are?

http://economics.about.com
Anyone got some other players who have become completely defined by who they aren't, rather than by who they are?

Curtis Pride

Cheers,

Mike

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/01/23/Rays/Starting_over__again.shtml
A great article about Josh Hamilton attempted comeback. Click on my name for the story link.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/01/23/sports1742EST0456.DTL
Homer Bush sighting. Signed a minor-league deal with the Yankees. COMN

Bob Elliott in today's Sun has the Jays recently offering Kevin Cash and Jayson Werth for Rafeal Soriano. Can't imagine why Seattle didn't jump at this one.

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/Sports/2004/01/24/323298.html

Bob Elliott is the same guy who said in December the Jays' top priorities were signing Roberto Hernandez and Glendon Rusch. I don't think his information is any good.

I think the Jays are hard after Rafael Soriano given their need for a high impact reliever (or starter for that matter). Werth/Cash isn't likely to get it done without JP having made some kind of pact with the Underworld but I'm glad to see they're being active with Seattle shopping him around.

There's a rumour coming through that the M's will sign I-Rod once Sasaki is officially off the books which would probably squash the need for the Ms to trade Soriano anyway.

An interesting thought though is that assuming the Jays DO manage the unlikely task of getting Soriano, I would not hand him the closer role this year. I believe he's still two years away from arbitration so I'd let him pitch out this season in middle/relief and setup without giving him any saves and he'd still be extremely valuable as a setup man. Then depending on his performance buy out his arbitration years and THEN either make him the closer or move him to a starting role.

It would be so much cheaper to do without having to pay him for his saves totals and status as a "proven closer". That's one reason I think making Escobar a closer was a mistake. Even if he excelled they would have ended up paying him way too much relative to his actual value because of those shiny saves.

Gross and Cash for Soriano sounds a little more even, but I'm not sure if JP is confident enough in the other outfield prospects (especially Rios) to offer Gross up.

If Seattle does make a Soriano for Werth and Cash deal then Bavasi should be fired. Why would they do a 4th outfielder and offensively challenged catcher for one of the best young arms in the majors? I dont think this deal has any merit to it at all.If we did manage to do the unthinkable and land Soriano he should either start or close, his stuff and numbers are that good. Seattle has Sneilling and Jamal Strong in triple A so their need for Werth seems very miniscule. They have Ben Davis who is still young and Ryan Christianson in the minors so I dont really see a need for Cash either. Just my two cents.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/sullivan/20040124-9999_1s24sullivan.html#
An interesting look at the weird outfield dimensions at Petco Park.

COMN

Cash, Werth and Perkins/League... Maybe the F-Cat instead of Werth and thrust Gross into the lineup. The F-Cat might be just the proven veteran to rook Bavasi.

BTW - I don't actually believe Soriano will/could come to T-O. Bavasi can't be that stupid!

BTW - What does eveyrone think of this Soriano as a closer thing? Isn't it a terrible waste?

I think Soriano is much more valuable as a starter. I wouldnt be suprised to see the Mariners try and move Freddy Garcia in a package for an outfielder and then slide Soriano into the rotation. Magglio Ordonez would certainly fit the bill and the White Sox could use the pitching and cut costs at the same time.

At The Wait Til Next Year Blog it has Soriano as closer and I've read another article or two that assumed that. Seemed ridiculous.

Soriano might be very valuable if the Mariners would use him as a 2 inning closer. If they are intent on using Guardado as their primary closer I think Soriano is more valuable as a guy who can pitch the 7th and 8th innings to get to Guardado ala Octavio Dotel. Soriano is this years Johan Santana in my opinion but the Mariners are very deep in both the major league rotation and in their minor league system. The one concern with him starting is health and some scouting reports question his ability to throw a third pitch. This might make him suited more towards the bullpen but to think that he used to be a poor hitting outfielder.

This might make him suited more towards the bullpen but to think that he used to be a poor hitting outfielder.

Sounds like Dave Stieb, right down to the power slider. And like Stieb he doesn't really throw an offspeed pitch yet. It took Stieb a few years to develop a reliable curveball.

Soriano spent part of 2002 with a strained shoulder and whenever I hear strained shoulder in the same sentence as power pitcher I get very nervous. We saw what a shoulder injury did to Politte's velocity and effectiveness. Soriano relies a great deal on throwing very very hard. I wouldn't want to put him in the rotation unless I was absolutely sure he could handle it.

On a totally unrelated note, remember Pasqual "Sticky Fingers" Coco.

Remember he said he would admit why he stole his roommates money after he was signed with a team. Well what happened and did he admit to anything?

Thought I would share 2 interesting baseball notes from Steve Simmons The Last Word today in the Sun. Pete Rose claims he started the 1976 allstar game over Roberto Clemente. He was right as Clemente died in 1972. Also Tom Brady was drafted by the Montreal Expos. What is it with Super Bowl quarterbacks being drafted by Canadian baseball teams. One more note, I believe that Coco has been signed by the Expos.

From the Dept of Big Surprises - Drew Henson is calling it a career and negotiating a buyout with the Yankees so he can go back to football.

Gwyn do you have a link ? Thanks Jeff

No link sorry - it was a story on the ESPN Sunday Countdown Football show this morning.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1692140
ESPN has it's updated offseason rankings. The Jays are 11th, only one spot ahead of the...TIGERS. Interesting. COMN

Finally... Alexis Rios is shut down for the offseason (after 700+ AB)! Caguas was defeated 9-8 today, as Ponce won the PRL championship (4-2). For the series, he had 2 HR and batted .400. (But as Jabonoso suggested recently, Rios might be used now as "reinforcement" at the Caribbean World Series).

(Btw, here's an interesting guage of Lexi's prospect buzz/hype.)

Wow Steve, there's a lot there. And a lot of those cards are pretty expensive! Impressive stuff. Let's hope he lives up to it.

Sorry, Lexis isn't shut down yet...the final is a best-of-nine!

Re what the new ESPN offseason rankings said on the Jays: "Most pressure in 2004: Eric Hinske. The AL's worst everyday third baseman defensively last season..."

I thought, "Hinske wasn't THAT bad."

But by Win Shares, he was. Among the 30 third basemen with the most innings played in 2003, Hinske ranked 29th in defensive shares per 1,000 innings, ahead of only Eric Munson.

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?2560
This is what happens when you don't follow the other league so well. Once in a while, a guy slips underneath your radar. For me, that guy is Tim Redding (COMN for his career line). The Astros have just named him their fifth starter ahead of Jerome Robertson. Rob Neyer has written a column on espn.com approving of this decision.

Looking at his career record, his age, and the decline in his walk and HRA rate, it seems that he has a decent chance to be the best pitcher on the Astros staff (ahead of Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt and Miller) next year. All he needs to do is get his K rate up a bit, and given his minor league record, this doesn't seem too unlikely. In a fantasy league, I'd be very, very interested.

Not if Oswalt is healthy. A healthy Oswalt would have to be included on a list of the 10 best starting pitchers in baseball.

Redding is one of those guys who has lived on potential for the past 3 years or so. Last year he had a month or two where he was great but then slipped into mediocrity. He could be pretty good, but you never know, especially piching in Minute Maid. I'm staying away from him in my fantasy league because 2 years ago I jumped at him, and wound up regretting it.

Robert, I agree that Oswalt is a better pitcher, and easily one of the ten best pitchers in baseball if healthy. What I meant is that bearing in mind Oswalt's injury and the natural variability of pitching performance, there is maybe a 15% chance that Redding ends up as the best pitcher on the staff. His current label, #5 starter, and the names ahead of him in the rotation, do not suggest this.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040125&content_id=630798&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
There's a recap on the Jays homepage about the award ceremony over the weekend. It's a good read, although Halladay's section is a tad shorter than most. My favorite quote was from Gagne, sounding quite Happy Gilmore-esque:

"I'm a hockey player, and hockey players aren't supposed to win Cy Young Awards. French-Canadians are not supposed to win these awards."

Oops, COMN in the previous post for the link.

Yankees look to be in need of a third baseman. SI reporting that Boone tore his ACL playing basketball, likely to miss the season.

Hinske for Vazquez ;-) ... Would you do it if contract situations were meaningless?

http://www.baseballprimer.com/articles/cdial_2004-01-26_0.shtml
COMN for a fascinating discussion on defensive statistics on baseballprimer.com. Mike Emeigh's comments are particularly interesting. It'd be fascinating to know what Lidle and Hendrickson's line-drive percentages were last year.

in a truly hijack fashion: the olympic authorities are in a quite complicated situation regarding the baseball issue:
-a US cable company has the rights for all olympic baseball transmissions. If USA is not going no TV
-Greece only has confirmed 4 ( four!) players for the host team in this sport ( none of those four has ever been in Greece!!!)
-If the eight team is out, the actual ninth team is in, and it is Mexico. Still no tv.
-USA has been pushing for a ten team tournament ( actual eight plus Mexico and USA )but if Greece is out nobody wants a 9 team event.
-Mexico does not want a game decide it all with US for the eight place, because it is not in the rules as they are now.
-It has trascended that without TV there may not be baseball in the olympics ( they were in for the revenue expected ).

Winter leagues: There is a new Clay Davenport article on BP, comparing the different leagues. I do not know how to make it available here, but it is quite interesting to complement the good work started about qualifying Lexis opus. If anybody has compiled his final line for the year encompassing AA, Qualifyers, Stars teams, and winter league, will be highly appreciated. I do not have any doubt that Lexi is ready for AAA pitching for this year. The only thing i would not like to see is that he misses the opportunity to be in the same bench with Carlos for at least say 60 games.
The Caribean series has a lot of national pride incentives, specially for Puerto Rico and Dominicana. For this it will be reasonable for Ponce team to try to get Alexis for the series. It will be in dominicana, there everybody wants to be in the representing team ( they have major leaguers for each position and I remember reading in one of such lists that five third men requested to be selected among others: Beltre, Batista and i can't recall the others.
In the Mexican team there won't be but two or three ML ( it is funny but for example Durazo and Vinny are with Hermosillo and it weights more the town rivalry than any pride for going with a Mexican team )
This Culiacan team won in Venezuela two years ago with rooky surprise Rodrigo lopez, then catapulted to the majors, from Mexican summer league.

http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dips03.html
Get your 2003 DIPS numbers. COMN. Hendrickson's and Lidle's are very interesting. Mike Emeigh's work shows that Glendon Rusch, the DIPS vs. ERA champion, gets there largely because he gives up a disproportionate number of line drives. Was that true for Hendrickson and Lidle, or was it lack of defensive support, bad luck or a combination of some or all of the above? I am making enquiries.

There is one cautionary note from Mike E's work. Ted Lilly was one of the 22 pitchers in the majors who gave up a disproportionate number of line drives-1 standard deviation beyond the league average, and so his DIPS ERA is likely not reflective of his actual performance.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040127&content_id=631198&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
With Kaz Sasaki's decision to cross the Pacific and be closer to his children, some money appears to be available for Pudge Rodriguez -- an intriguing possibility for the M's. COMN for details.

Here's a nugget from Bill Murray, who is a co-owner of a number of minor league teams, and Mike Veeck courtesy of the NY Penn League website. Murray won the best actor Golden Globe award for his role in Lost in Translation.

After accepting his award, Murray commented that "Too often we forget our brothers on the other side of the aisle - the dramatic actors. I’d just like to say: Where would our war, our miseries and our psychological traumas come from?"

"When you’re a lifetime Cubs fan as Bill is," said Renegades co-owner Mike Veeck "you have a great sense of the relationship between good and evil, and between comedic and dramatic."

Somebody help me out here, please:

On an earlier thread someone pointed out a rule of MLB that I had never heard before: there's a limit to how many free agents of each type a team is allowed to sign. I plan on using this helpful fact in a future Blue Jay Way column. Anybody know which thread? Anybody have supplementary information?

Thanks.

Sorry Mathew, I've also heard about it but never actually read the rule itself. Have you tried to google the rule out of the e-sea?
On another matter. The Ponce Lions have confirmed two things:
-Players already training with them for the Caribe series: Carlos Baerga, Raul Gonzalez ( Mets ) and our Josue Matos.
-Players invited: Alexis Rios, Alexis Cintron, Luis Matos and pitchers Omar Olivares, Jose Santiago and Dickie Gonzalez.
My understanding is that they can add five plus supplant losses and so far two american pitchers from their staff announced they are not going ( brothers tim and Roy Corcoran ). Invitees will confirm today most likely.
This Sunday they will play against Venezuelan champ.

The Licey Tigers in Dominicana invited Miguel Tejada, Jose Guillen and David Ortiz and are selecting also one catcher and two pitchers.

The Associated Press is reporting Irod to Detroit at 4 years and 40 million on the condition of him passing a physical on thursday with the agreement possibly announced on friday.

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
Melvin Mora, 3 and $10.5.

Going into 2003, Mora's lifetime batting average for balls hit into play was .290. Last year, it was .364. This year's Jose Hernandez?

Matthew, it's in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Article XX(B)(5). I have quoted it below.

(5) Quota

(a) Clubs shall be limited in the number of Type A and B Players,
as defined below, they may subsequently sign to contracts. The
number of signings permitted shall be related to the number of Players
electing free agency under this Section B. If there are 14 or less
such Players, no Club may sign more than one Type A or B Player.
If there are from 15 to 38 such Players, no Club may sign more than
two Type A or B Players. If there are from 39 to 62 such Players, no
Club may sign more than three Type A or B Players. If there are
more than 62 such Players, the Club quotas shall be increased
accordingly. There shall be no restrictions on the number of
unranked Players which a Club may sign to contracts.

(b) Irrespective of the provisions of subparagraph (a) above, a
Club shall be eligible to sign at least as many Type A and B Players
as it may have lost through Players having become free agents under
this Section at the close of the season just concluded.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5806&type=pitching&year=2003
Cory Lidle and Mark Hendrickson had DIPS ERAs much lower than their actual ERAs. I've done some research on Lidle's performance, and here it is.

The story on Cory

Cory Lidle had by all appearances an atrocious year in 2003. His ERA was 5.75. He walked more than he had in years. He gave up more homers than he had in years.

But, his DIPS ERA, courtesy of Jay Jaffe, was 4.47. Normally, DIPS will take full account of deterioration in walk and home run rate. DIPS does normalize for the ballpark, with respect to home runs and so has him with 22 home runs allowed rather than the 24 he actually allowed. This accounts for 3 runs or so, but hardly explains the yawning gap between the DIPS and actual ERA figures. With this in mind,which is more reflective of Cory's performance, his DIPS or his actual ERA?

The theories that I had to explain the disparity between the DIPS and the actual ERA were:

1. he gave up more hits on balls in play than expected by DIPS because he gave up an unusual number of line drives,

2. he gave up more hits on balls in play than expected by DIPS because he is a ground-ball pitcher, and was particularly affected by the weak Blue Jay infield defence at 3b and short

3. His actual ERA is higher than it should be, because the relievers behind him allowed a disproportionate share of his inherited runners to score, and

4. Poor clutch pitching (bunching of runs and hits)

Mike Emeigh has sent me an e-mail confirming that Cory Lidle gave up an average number of line drives last year. So, the first theory seems unlikely to explain the disparity. As for the third theory, I reviewed Lidle's starts from last year, and here are the results of the inherited runners he left:

a. man on first, 0 outs, no runs scored (1 time)
b. man on first, 1 out, 2 runs scored (3 times)
c. man on first 2 outs, no runs scored (1 time)
d. man on first and second, 0 outs, 6 runs scored (4 times)
e. man on first and second, 1 out, 2 runs scored (2 times)
f. man on third, 0 out, 1 runs scored (2 times)
g. man on third 1 out, 2 runs scored (2 times)

I don't have the run expectations, normalized for the Skydome, for each of these situations, but it is obvious looking at the chart that at most the bullpen cost Lidle a run or two, which at maximum would be .1 on the ERA.

As for the effect of defence on Lidle's ERA, he gave up 6 hits more than expected by DIPS. It is true that he give up 3 times the number of groundballs as flyballs, and that right-handed hitters hit him much better than left in 2003 (the opposite was true in 2002). Hinske's range factors were very poor and Bordick/Woodward's were about average. But, still it is only 6 hits that we are speaking about.

Finally, there is the question of clutch pitching/baserunner bunching. COMN for Cory's splits. Overall, opponents hit .282/.335/.467. With runners on, opponents hit .319/.371/.523. With runners in scoring postion, opponents hit .305/.366/.524. Lidle was very good with no one on and one/two outs (opponents hit .243/.301/.365) There was significant evidence of baserunner bunching at work here. Checking Cory's splits from 2001 and 2002 reveals no such bunching.

What do I conclude from this? The difference between Cory's actual and DIPS ERA result froma combination of the following factors, probably in this order: baserunner bunching/poor clutch pitching, the normalization of HRS allowed in the DIPS formula, moderately poor defensive support and moderately poor relief support. This was not the conclusion I expected when I started, but there you go.

An interesting question is why Lidle performed so poorly in the clutch pitching categories in 2003 compared with previous years. Was it simply bad luck or the result of the erosion of confidence, arising from the less favorable environment in 2003 compared with previous years?

If people are interested, I'll do the same for Hendrickson- Lurch's Ledger. I know that the story is a bit different because Lurch did give up an unusual number of line drives and he is a flyball pitcher.

Excellent. Thanks, Craig.

As a work perk I got a pair of Golds to Leafs vs. Hurricanes on Tuesday night, and my wife an I decided to bring some Cheer Club style shouting to the Air Canada Centre.

You think the SkyDome crowd sucks? These monogrammed-cuff stiffs looked at us like we were from Mars.

In the end we confined ourselves to booing lustily whenever Glen Wesley touched the puck.

Was it simply bad luck or the result of the erosion of confidence, arising from the less favorable environment in 2003 compared with previous years?

Mike, although the effect can't be precisely measured by statistics, any analysis of Lidle's 2003 has to include the injury he was hiding, which will certainly erode a player's confidence. Like the rest of the team, he struggled through the Terrible Twenty in April, then had a very good May. However, in June and July, he tried to pitch through a groin injury, which ultimately affected his motion enough to make his arm sore. Only then did he go on the DL. When he returned, even if he was 100% sound, Lidle definitely was a lame duck, finishing a lost season while knowing he would be moving on, at a fraction of his former salary or what he might have earned as a free agent coming off a better year.

If he stays healthy, Cory should have a decent season for the Reds, which is what a lot of us anticipated when he became a Blue Jay. Inevitably, if he bounces back, people will make Loaiza comparisons, assuming and/or implying that some failure of the Jays' management or coaching staff was to blame. The reality is, his Toronto experience didn't work out as well as he, the team and many fans expected, but Lidle made most of his own bad luck by pitching hurt and keeping that a secret for so long.

I'm always interested in the "evidence," but sometimes the lines don't tell the entire story. I suspect that a similar study of Lurch's 2003 campaign will conclude that he wasn't good enough, to which I have nothing anecdotal to add.

although the effect can't be precisely measured by statistics, any analysis of Lidle's 2003 has to include the injury he was hiding, which will certainly erode a player's confidence

Injury/confidence could explain why he was worse than usual, but I don't think it explains the significant difference between his ERA and DIPS. DIPS primarily looks at your K, BB, and HR ratio, and if you're hurt or pitching without confidence it'll certainly show up in the numbers.

Interesting comment, Coach. I was aware of Lidle's groin strain in early August, but not aware that it had been bothering him as far back as June. Aside from the effect of an injury on confidence, there could also be a direct physical link between a groin injury and "clutch pitching". Some pitchers reach back for a little extra with runners on, and with a groin injury, it simply might not be there.

I knew about the Politte situation, but Lidle I missed.

http://economics.about.com
Injury/confidence could explain why he was worse than usual, but I don't think it explains the significant difference between his ERA and DIPS. DIPS primarily looks at your K, BB, and HR ratio, and if you're hurt or pitching without confidence it'll certainly show up in the numbers.

It does show up in the numbers. Look at these, where "avg" is an average of 2001 and 2002, weighted by innings:

	IP	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
2001	188.0	1.10	2.25	5.65	2.51
2002	192.0	0.80	1.83	5.20	2.85
avg	190.0	0.95	2.04	5.42	2.68
2003	192.7	1.12	2.80	5.23	1.87
diff	1.4%	18.3%	37.6%	-3.6%	-30.4%

Cheers,

Mike

Hmm. With about 1.5 million left in the Jays' current budget it would have been nice to take a little gamble on someone like Lidle coming off a bit of an injured/unlucky season. You always need more starting pitching than you start with and between uncertainty over the performance of Towers and potential health concerns between Lilly and Hentgen, it would have been good to have an inning eater with experience.

But you never know...that salary room could yet be put towards that end when they find an urgent need and/or a good fit.

Don't have a feeder source, but I'm hearing from various blogs around the net that Sheffield has volunteered to move to third for the Yanks next season. Setting aside for a second how absolutely atrocious that would be to watch, I have to say that I'm pretty impressed that Sheff is sticking his neck out like this for a team he hasn't even played for yet. He hasn't played 3B in 10 years and has to know that he'd probably be in for more than a bit of embarassment out there, but he's still willing to do it if it'll help. No similar offer from "best darn guy in the world" Derek Jeter....

In fairness to Jeter, SS to 3B would be somewhat of a demotion while RF is more easily filled. Not that Jeter doesn't deserve to be so demoted. Sheffield at 3B would be fun to watch for laughs and after a month might give my BBFL team a nice little upgrade at the hot corner. I'd definately be afraid of him getting hurt or hurting someone in the stands with an errant throw.

http://www.aarongleeman.com/
S.K.,

Gleeman wrote about the Yanks potential 'infield of doom' on his blog. Worth a look. COMN

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2531
COMN for an interesting study by Joe Sheehan on the life of the modern closer after 30. Summary: they're about as fragile as catchers; Duane Ward was not alone.

Baseball America is currently featuring their College '04 Preview where they list the top 50 prospects from each class.

1B Jeff Larish and SS Stephen Drew look like the class of the position players and both will probably be gone by the time the Jays pick. Other position players that might interest the Jays include OF Seth Smith, OF Danny Putnam, and maybe Sam Fuld. SS Dustin Pedroia sounds like a dirtbag that JP would like despite his small stature and might be available after the first round.

There are a lot of good college pitchers available early and while performance in '04 will effect where they're drafted, the massive Jeff Niemann (6'9", 260 lbs) projects as a first overall pick. His Rice teammates Wade Townsend (led the nation in punchouts) and Philip Humber will also be highly sought after. Jeremy Sowers is a control lefty with plus makeup who should be major league ready quickly while Huston Street is a closer who might have quick impact along the lines of Chad Cordero and Ryan Wagner.

During the Jays' chat John Manuel identified Justin Orenduff and Chris Lambert as pitchers that might slip to the Jays at 16th overall. I still expect the Jays will take a bat in the first round if they find one they like who demonstrates ability with a wood bat.

FoxSports.com is presenting its Top 100 Prospects list in descending order, and Vito (#76) and Jason (#80) are the first two Jays to appear on the list. That's probably the best ranking Vito will get this offseason!

Steve - for a second there I thought you were saying that Vito and Arnold ranked above Gross, Rios, et al.... blew my mind.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/01/29/SPGNB4K4JS1.DTL
Stop the Presses ! Former 4- time 20 game winner and asst Gm to our old Pal Gordo, Dave Stewart is now a Baseball Player Agent.

Click on my name to read the article about Dave Stewart jump to Baseball Agent game. J.P is quoted in this article !!

Just wanted to say that I saw Gordon Kirke speak today, and I think he would make for a fascinating interview by Batter's Box - anyways keep up the great work on this site!

Baseball HQ (Subscription) (Ron Shandler ... Deric McKamey actually) announced their top 100 prospects today. Of note:

10. Alexis Rios
18. Dustin McGowan
34. Gabe Gross
35. Quiroz
78. Aaron Hill
86. Russ Adams
88. David Bush
99. Jason Arnold

That's eight out of the top 100. Not bad!!!

Check out baseballamerica.com for the latest installment of ASK BA where they answer the question, "who has a higher ceiling, Alex Rios or Delmon Young?"

Interesting 2 team rumour. White Sox get Erstad and Washburn, Angels get Valentin and Konerko and the Yankees get Glaus.

http://economics.about.com
Interesting 2 team rumour. White Sox get Erstad and Washburn, Angels get Valentin and Konerko and the Yankees get Glaus.

That'd be a great deal for the Yankees, seeing as they don't give up anything. :)

Cheers,

Mike

Alexis Rios won't play in the caribean series. Jose Cruz sr, Ponce mgr choosed Raul Gonzalez over him !

Thanks Jabonoso for the good news. Lexi needs a rest.

Exactly. We're less than a month away from spring training here!