Pistol,

Great payroll chart. I'm pretty sure Roy Halladay will not have the requisite service time to be a free-agent after 2004. He'll be eligible after the 2005 season (your chart should show green for 2005).

From Spencer Fordin's MLB.com report on the Speier signing:

The last unsigned Jay is Roy Halladay, who is expected to exchange figures with the team later in the day.

This is very good news, if not unexpected. There hasn't ever been the slightest animosity between the two sides, and it's highly unlikely they would go to an arbitration hearing. What isn't clear is whether the figures being exchanged are for a one year deal, or the multi-year extension every Toronto fan is hoping for.

I've been thinking all along that the Halladay deal would be completed in Florida, in about the same time frame as the Hinske and Wells contracts were announced last spring. Typically, in this proactive offseason, it sounds like they might be ahead of schedule. Stay tuned...

That is a great payroll chart, but Gwyn is the creator of the spreadsheet, although I believe you are correct about Halladay not being a FA until after 05.

TSN is reporting that arbitration figures have been exchanged. Roy is asking for $9MM. The team is countering with $6.5MM.

Sorry...no source. It was on TV. Just trust me. ;)

I'd like to see a 3-year deal, perhaps going 7.5M, 8.5M, 10M and a club option for 11M in 2007 (for Halladay). That kind of deal might convince Delgado that the Jays will be legitimate contenders 2005-2007 and that might induce him to take slightly less than market value (which I estimate to be 4 years/55 million (2005-2008)) and stay in Toronto.

I have a feeling that the $7M - $8M that has been mentioned for Halladay is a bit on the low side. I have no idea where a person gets service time info, but 2 recent signings seem to fall into the Halladay category. Vasquez with the Yanks signed for $8M plus a $2M signing bonus on a 4 year back loaded deal and Wood got $9.75 for a one year deal.

With the numbers exchanged, if it goes to arby my bet would be that Doc gets the $9M.

If Roy gets the $9M does this blow up this year's budget or would JP and company have taken this into account?

Roy is asking for $9MM. The team is countering with $6.5MM.

Spicol, I saw that TSN report too. Again, I'm sure this will be settled amicably, it's just a question of when. If Doc gets the security of a four-year deal, $7 million still sounds like a reasonable figure for 2004. If they did have to compromise on a one-year pact to avoid a hearing, the midpoint is $7.75 million, which would put the team slightly over budget.

I hope Robert's right, both on his Halladay numbers and the effect that would have on Delgado.

Marty York had his 'York Report' tonight saying the same, 9 mil asked, 6.5 mil offered.

Delgado signing beyond '04?

Robert, you'd actually offer a deal at 4 years/55 million (2005-2008)? I notice not long ago some of you fellas debating Delgado's value, future offensive drop-offs without him etc etc... Without arguing the pros/cons of life with or without Delgado, I would be shocked to find many Jays fans that would ever consider an extension of this many years, at that per annum, considering the position he plays and his age during the life of the contract. I know he has great value to the club as it exists right now pre-'04, but I would never imagine offering that deal, and if Ricciardi did, i'd be blown away. Wow.

Say 11mil to Delgado, 10mil to Halladay, and then Wells, Hinske's and Batista's contracts in future years, amounting to 30mil plus of a possible 50mil total budget? Yikes. Even with the small beans the likes of Rios, Gross, McGowan etc. will make, where's the finacial flexibility for the "contending years"?

I have to agree with Shane's point. Robert you are saying that Delgado's market value at about $14 million per year is the same as Vlad's. I just do not see that. Carlos is older and while he puts up as good as or better numbers than Vlad its at first not RF. They both have some injury issues. I think Carlos could expect something less than Vlad on the open market.

Having said that, if the Jays were to lock up $25 million per year for Halladay and Delgado (or about 50% of their budget) in '06 and '07 I would be totally against it. You are two injuries away from extinction - full stop. If the number were $20 million and you were not locked in for more than a year or so then go for it.

I have no idea where a person gets service time info, but 2 recent signings seem to fall into the Halladay category. Vasquez with the Yanks signed for $8M plus a $2M signing bonus on a 4 year back loaded deal and Wood got $9.75 for a one year deal.

Vazquez is going into his 7th full season and as such, would qualify for free agency were he not signed to a long term deal. Wood, going into his 6th season, was arbitration eligible for the last time.

Thanks to a few partial years, Roy is still behind both pitchers in service time at 4+ years. He's still under control of the Jays until after the 2005 season and that depresses his value somewhat in comparison to Vazquez and Wood.

Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder are better comps to Roy in terms of service time but both signed long term contracts that are probably paying them less than market value at $4.55MM and $4.4MM respectively. Freddy Garcia, another with 4+ years, is being paid $6.875MM for 2004. While his 2003 wasn't in Roy territory, their career numbers are similar...important when it comes to contract negotiations.

To me, $7.5MM-$8MM to Roy for a 1-year deal sounds just about right.

I'm trying to remember if arbitration results in either Halladay making the offered ammount or his requested ammount, or does arbitration allow for something in between to be determined by the arbitrator?

Arbitration is one or the other.

I think Carlos has as much market value as Sheffield did this year.

As far as age and position goes, why would we expect Carlos to decline much, given that he plays a relatively undemanding position? We are talking about Carlos' age 33 to 36 seasons, and we are also talking about one of the best hitters in baseball. I think you'll find that players who were among the best hitters in baseball at age 30/31 continued to hit very well through ages 36, unless they played demanding positions.

I wrote that it was his market value (given aggressive bidding). He'll most likely be the most sought-after free agent should he play out his contract. The market hasn't changed all that much since Thome, and Carlos is in better shape than Thome. I expect JP to offer less, perhaps 11 million per year.

Nigel, you assume that the budget in '06 and '07 will be 50 million - I think it will be higher.

To win, you've got to take calculated risks. You need players like Roy and Carlos to win championships, so if the team contemplates letting one or both go, they'd better be able to acquire similarly talented players.

Actually, from my viewpoint, the possible scenario of Delgado resigning is to me one that has to be a special case. You can't get into a open market bidding war for him because it's either 1999-2004 redux or you fawn after him, get outbid, and have it appear that you failed to sign your "franchise" player (which infact he may not be anymore) and have that clubhouse/media perception around your neck for god knows how long? People believe Ricciardi has a "blueprint" dating back to 2001, and I think you have to be very clear on what your intentions are with Delgado long before there's the chance of "losing" him.

I know it's a marketplace, no one works for free, etc... but Delgado's been in Toronto for nothing but losing years, never having had a real shot at contention, while making himself a excellent living. Carlos is a bright man, and Ricciardi's always treated him with the utmost respect, so they both know the deal: If Delgado truly wants to be on a contender (which we hope Toronto '04 & beyond is), and be with Toronto as it emerges as an AL heavyweight contender, then that's his sentimental decision and he has to be the one to show the commitment and sacrifice. If he just wants money and empty promises go take Baltimore's. The money is not there to be handing out 10 million plus deals to every important Jays player. Fact of life. Bye Stewart, bye Escobar, and if need be bye Delgado, and one day bye bye Wells. In my mind this is what you buy into when you take on the Ricciardi/Beane business plan, and I have no problem with that.

This is exactly Jason Giambi take II in my mind. And while it's easy and factual to say his departure has had, offensively, a negative impact on Oakland, it can/should be argued that the A's dramatic offensive slide is more a case of either a poor use of filling his position/numbers or a change to a more defensive minded club and neglecting some of the offesive side.

I never said the Jays can't win without Delgado. I am saying that the Jays will have to acquire a similarly talented player (though not necessarily a first baseman) - either from within or on the open market.

Oakland has been kept afloat by great young pitchers. But there is nothing that says Toronto is likely to have the same kind of success. My advice is to try to field a good offensive team, which means less reliance on the speculative emergence of great young pitchers.

Comparing Escobar and Stewart to Delgado is not at all apt. We're talking about a special player, not someone who can be easily replaced (as the other two have already been).

Robert. I wasn't saying you said Toronto couldn't compete without him. Nor was even bringing up the 'three aces of Oakland', and the stability they've provided the A's has had zero to do with anything i've mentioned. Regardless of comparing who's who, compared to he's & she's, you obviously place more value on Delgado than I. I'm just not going to get caught up in calling him special, as he may very well be, but to me it's not relevant. I'm pretty sure most of us agree that if you're going to let him walk, you should reasonably replace his numbers, yes? So for one example, if all went as managements best hopes could draw it up and come the beginning of '05, a firstbase/DH combo of Phelps/Griffin could produce near as much punch as one Delgado at huge savings, would this be prudent too you?

Delgado/Phelps is going to produce much much more than Phelps/Griffin. Essentially you are comparing the production of Carlos to JF's (who doesn't look like a very good prospect at this point).

I find it exceptionally likely that Phelps/PlayerX would produce nowhere near what Delgado/Phelps would, where playerX is someone you can sign at modest dollars.

Before thinking how much delgado would make look at the free agents in 2004:

wood, schmidt, randy johnson, cabrera, renteria (perhaps), chavez, matt moris, garciapara, garcia, a boatload of relievers, etc. etc. I am not too familiar with this stuff but I am sure someone can find and post the full list.

Instead of getting delgado we could go for renteria, or cabrera,or perhaps chavez (if we move hinske to first). Either of these guys has a higher value than delgado because it eliminates any easy outs teams might have had... and stregnthens us much more on the defensive side.

Delgado is declining, has problems with his knee (team always says he is playing in pain), and no way is he worth this type of money. And, since I don't think russ adams and hill are sure bets, help in the middle willl make us much more competitive -- at least for the next 3 or so years.

Let me point out once again that only 3 players had more win shares (which is fully position adjusted) than Carlos in 2003. None of those 3 will be on the market for the foreseeable future. To say that Renteria and Cabrera are more valuable is absurd. Cabrera isn't a particularly good hitter, though I think that in 3 years Renteria might be more valuable than Carlos.

I'd love to get Renteria or Chavez. But we all know there isn't a hope in hell of doing that unless we offer them obscene money. Probably more cash than it would take to sign Carlos (since we have exclusive negotiating rights with him for the next 10 months).

I don't see any evidence that Carlos is declining. He had knee problems in 2002, but was basically healthy in 2003 (every big leaguer plays through pain).

Actually, that's right Robert -- I didn't take that all the way through. Ok, again, just as an example or case study. Best case scenario, perhaps a firstbase platoon of Phelps/Griffin (with some DHing depending on whatever) can match Delgado's '04 and beyond numbers and you pick up a non-tendered Durazo, Ortiz or a Widget (who ever it's just speculation) who is able to match Phelps DH numbers, then you're pretty much supplying the same offensive output out of those two spots that existed with Delgado...in theory. (Or maybe you don't, my heads been broke before)

I meant to say delgado is in his declining years. Last year he had surgery on the knee, and this year he was complaining about the pain (at least the jays were saying he played through a lot of pain).

I would love to see him back, but I don't think the jays can improve in other areas if they resign him. I think the comp. draft pick isn't a big issue when you try to get the players needed to make a run at the playoffs and beyond.

In terms of cabrera, I think you are right, but he would come way cheaper than delgado and solve a huge need for us (plus he plays on artificial surface).

Renteria put stats very similar to those of vernon wells (a bit less power). Given his age and position, he is worth more than delgado.

btw, i think the jays can afford 9 million for roy. if the jays were smart and brought some us dollars when it was close to 80 cents, then their payroll could exceed the 50 million US payroll by a bit if rogers used something like 70-72 cent dollar when looking at the payroll in can. dollars

Best case scenario, perhaps a firstbase platoon of Phelps/Griffin (with some DHing depending on whatever) can match Delgado's '04 and beyond

Shane, I think that Robert's point is that your "best case scenario" is virtually impossible, because Carlos is so damn awesome. And he is. Take a look at Runs Created, and try to replace Carlos' offensive contribution. Phelps, Griffin, Renteria, Cabrera, Whomever... none of the combinations or permutations would do the trick.

I think that the little reparte between Robert and Shane is due to a basic disagreement over Delgado's true value.

only 3 players had more win shares (which is fully position adjusted) than Carlos in 2003.

Damn straight.

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
Even $9M this year for Halladay is a bargain. The Cubs avoided going to arbitration with Kerry Wood for $9.75M. Both pitchers are 26, and both were taken in first round of the '95 draft out of high school. But that's about the end of their similarities. Wood might have all the potential in the world, but he hasn't put together a single season like Halladay in '02 or '03.

Wood is also a year away from free agency while Halladay is two years away. That's all that really matters for arbitration discussions. Halladay at $9 million would be an extremely expensive pitcher given his experience.

Not nearly as expensive as the $9 million that Eric Gagne is asking for in his FIRST year of arbitration. But still considerably more than the most expensive pitchers of his experience.

Sure, as I said earlier i'm not going to place special value on Delgado, when others might. There's some other clubs that can offord the special players all day long. It's a lot of money for one guy on a team that has sparingly little to spread around. Myself, as of right now, there's no way I give Delgado another 10million plus per season when surely you could find a player/players too co-DH/co-1stBase with Phelps that could provide a healthy dose of his production. Especially considering it's a healthy hitting club to begin with. It's a lot a money for a position that's supposed to be the easiest to fill. Chuck LaMar isn't the Toronto GM last time I looked, so i'd feel fairly confident in the chances of something quality happening. Who's to say?

I think it depends on how you view Delgaldo's worth and how much he is willing to sign for. I think a fair comp for Delgaldo next year when he becomes a FA is Jason Giambi and his time in Oakland. Power hitter, draws a lot of walks, plays an iffy first base. And look at how that has started to backfire on the Yankees for signing Giambi to his huge contract. Obviously the Fighting Jays won't be signing Delgaldo to some 8 year 120 million contract or whatever Giambi got (I'm not awake right now, dunno what it really is), but he's definitely overpaid at this point and seeing the current market and the Jays' salaries commitments, JP and Co. may be tempted to lowball Delgaldo and get him to sign a real hometown discount. (8 mil per maybe? Perhaps even lower?)

"Win shares" ...puh-leeze.

And thank you!

As I have stated in another thread, Carlos could be an extremely valuable vet hitter in the middle of the order for the next contending Jays team (like F Robbie to the O's back in the day).

But...if Wells is as good or (pray) better then last year AND Rios/Gross comes up and delivers better than Cat/Reed they could sacrifice the offensive hit. I think the key is maintaining the 2003 level of offense (at a min) and making the pitching better.

At this early junction, I lean towards keeping the elite hitter (Delgado) at ~$12 Large per year over 3-5 years. The Delgado-Free Scenario requires too many favorable outcomes (Phelps improvement, at least two out of Gross/Rios/Phelps/Werth delivering at the ML level, Quiroz putting the O back in the Catcher position, Woodward becoming an everyday SS with a 750 OPS or Adams/Hill, etc.)

Sometimes it's best to pay for the known production IMHO.

I wouldn't look at signing Delgado until well through this season to see how the wind is blowing with the prospects (and not more then 3-5 years).

P.S. I'd really love to see a deal to pry Morneau (sic) from the Twins. A yound mashing Canadian first sacker in Toronto would be something to see.

Let me point out that if we could get Carlos at 10 million per season, we'd be saving 8 million dollars - which we could then put towards buying out arbitration years and adding some peripheral talent. Let me also point out that 10 million is about what the Jays will pay Batista, Lilly and Ligtenberg in 2005, and it's hard for me to believe that, collectively, they are worth more than Carlos.

With Delgado, Halladay and Wells, all we would need would be the development of 2 of Phelps, Hinske, McGowan, Rios, Gross, Bush, Quiroz into elite players and we'd be in great shape 2005-2007.

Benum: The twins aren't the Yankees. They couldnt afford to do something like that. Carlos needs to get signed at some point through out the season, because he wont be offered arbitration.

Pegging the middle ground between Halladay and the Blue Jays at $8 million (it's actually 7.75 million - and by the way, I am expecting a deal (for at least one year) soon, as $2.5 million is really not that far apart) My own salary projections are:

              2004 Projected (* = not a firm figure)
Delgado       $18,500,000
Halladay      $8,000,000*
Batista       $3,600,000
Lilly         $1,900,000
Catalanotto   $2,300,000
Hentgen       $2,200,000
Ligtenberg    $2,000,000
T Adams       $1,700,000
Speier        $1,600,000
Myers         $900,000
de los Santos $850,000
Hinske        $800,000
Woodward      $775,000
Gomez         $750,000
Berg          $700,000*
Wells         $700,000
Phelps        $350,000*
Hudson        $320,000*
Lopez         $315,000*
Johnson       $308,000*
Kershner      $305,000*
Towers        $305,000*
Werth         $303,000*
Cash          $300,000*
Haines        $300,000*
	
TOTAL         $50,081,000
Budget        $50,000,000

Current Shortfall of $81,000

I have some small differences from Gwyn's amounts; mine are based on standard player awards commensuate with the player's experience, Halladay's revised arb amounts, and guesswork as to Super Dave Berg's Super Secret Contract of Super Secrecy. Berg's contract value for 2004 is a better-kept secret than Chinese missile codes.

Why is everyone assuming Delgado 2004 will put up the same numbers as Delgado 2003?

Who assumed that?

$81,000 deficit? 81 home games? That's exactly $1,000/game. The charitable opportunites abound. How 'bout a "no deficit" donation box inside each of the gates, with the largest donor getting free publicity on the Jumbotron?

I agree with Robert about Carlos Delgado's current value. In terms of reasonable expectations for him at age 36, I looked at Baseball Reference's most similar players. The list is a very good one, but made up mostly of active players: McGriff, McCovey, Bagwell, Belle, Thome, Mo Vaughn, Frank Thomas, Canseco, Trosky and Kiner. At age 36, McGriff went .277/.373/.452, McCovey went .253/.416/.516 in only 348 ABs, and Canseco went .258/.366/.472. Bagwell, Thome, Vaughn, and Thomas haven't yet made 36, but three of them still have got game. Belle, Trosky and Kiner were out of the game by age 36.

Personally, I'd bet that Carlos would do better than any of his comps at age 36- .280/.400/.520 in 520 ABs would be my guess, but looking at the list, one has to acknowledge the significant risks attached to a 4 year contract. No one said being a GM was easy.

It's a lot of money for one guy on a team that has sparingly little to spread around.

Sure. But that doesn't mean it's not a good allocation of resources. Look, if the Jays were in any other division they'd have a realistic shot at the playoffs this year. They could very well be the third best team in the American League, this year. They're spending $18,500,000 on Delgado, this year.

Now, as Robert already pointed out, we're talking about spending at least $5M/year LESS on Delgado. And the Jays will be starting to hit their stride where the mid-range players are continuously replaced with kids.

Catalanotto at $2.3M becomes Gross or Rios, at the minimum.
Adams at $1.7M becomes Bush or Arnold, at the minimum.
Myers at $900K becomes Quiroz at the minimum.
Hentgen at $2.2M becomes McGowan at the minimum.
Ligtenberg at $2.5M becomes Peterson at the minimum.
Woodward at $775K becomes Adams or Hill, at the minimum.

All of these changes also have a lot of potential to make the team better.

A lot of people take this concept of 1B/DH/LF types being easily replaceable too far. Sure you can find yourself a .270/.350/.450 guy at those positions for a couple million (Although it seems odd to me that nobody ever points to specific players in making this argument). But Delgado's a .300/.410/.540 kind of guy, and the extra value of that is not a linear function from the $3M commodity hitter.

Benum: The twins aren't the Yankees. They couldnt afford to do something like that.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I didn't mean a Delgado to the Twins deal. I was thinking a Middle Infielder/Pitching/Prospect or combination for Morneau.

http://economics.about.com
But Delgado's a .300/.410/.540 kind of guy, and the extra value of that is not a linear function from the $3M commodity hitter.

Open question: How many "Wins Above Replacement" would Delgado have to provide to make, say, a 14mil per year for 4 years ($56m total) a good deal for the Jays?

Cheers,

Mike

About 7 to 9 a year, given 2 million per marginal win.

I don't think J.P.'s going to offer 14; I think about 11-12 million a season, perhaps some of that deferred. And that MIGHT be enough to sign Carlos, if you throw in some performance bonuses on top of that (e.g 500+PA with .400+OBP and/or 530+SLG).

I have nothing new too add here. Delgado's been and probably would be a good investment in the future. Check. An influx of the Rios's, Gross's, Bush's, etc combined with the established veterans would appear to create a nice little salary mosaic for a few years. Check.

I don't see that i'm taking anything "to far". I never said Phelps+A and/or B = Delgado. It's a strong line-up to begin with, and there's a highly capable GM at the head. Surely you can put together a flow through of 2/3 players who can put up very effective numbers in the DH/1B holes. Isn't this one of the staples of Sabermetric-Prospectus-Primer-replacement level enlightenment? Since when is one player so unreplaceable? No one mentions names? I threw out Griffin, Durazo, Ortiz and stated that it's kinda moot to even mention names because who knows who'll be available, who'll emerge, and who you're GM can acquire.

Delgado at 8mil/3years, damm straight. But, after four years of whining or lamenting about his 19mil per year and all the hindrance it causes, from the GM on down to the sportswriters, adding on another 3/4 years at 14/15 mil, for me, no way. But hey, as i've said, maybe i'm wrong. And if so, that's OK.

A lot of people take this concept of 1B/DH/LF types being easily replaceable too far.

It might be helpful to take a look at what a good first baseman costs you these days, and what it's likely to cost in future. Here are the 20 top first basemen in the major leagues, ranked by OPS (not all these guys are "natural" first basemen, but that's how ESPN sorted them and I didn't have time to recategorize), with their confirmed or approximate 2004 salaries included:

Helton 1.088 -- $11.6M
Delgado 1.019 -- $18.5M
Thome .958 -- $10.5M
Giambi .939 -- $10.0M
Sexson .927 -- $8.0M
Bagwell .897 -- $13.0M
D. Lee .888 -- $6.9M
Mientkiewicz .843 -- ~$3.5M
Millar .820 -- ~$2.5-$3M
Teixeira .811 -- MIN
T. Lee .807 -- NS
Conine .797 -- $4.75M
Hillenbrand .782 -- ~$2M
Martinez .781 -- $8.5M
Spiezio .779 -- $2.5M
Pena .772 -- ~<$1M
Olerud .761 -- $7.7M
Casey .758 -- $6.8M
Hatteberg .725 -- ~$2.5M
Harvey .721 -- MIN

As you can see, you don't get into the top five without at least $8M a year -- in fact, that kind of money can also buy you a Sean Casey or a Tino Martinez, if you're not careful. The only real bargains in the top ten are Mientkiewicz (an unusually strong season), Millar (a shrewd acquisition) and Teixeira (a rookie). Basically, if you want top, proven performance, you'll be paying for it.

Now, Delgado's salary stands out from this bunch, but that's also misleading: his contract expires after this year, while his fellow first sackers watch their incomes rise. Here are the post-2004 salaries for the other three top 1Bs:

- Jim Thome: $11.5M, $12.5M, $14M, $14M
- Jason Giambi: $11M, $18M, $21M, $21M (ouch)
- Todd Helton: $12.6M, $16.6M, $16.6M, $16.6M, $16.6M, $16.6M, $19.6M (double ouch)

Of this bunch, Thome's contract was signed most recently, and Thome himself is an excellent comp for Delgado. Giambi's and Helton's contracts are millstones, and it's unlikely they'll be matched again for a long time. Frankly, I'm not sure Carlos can expect to do much better next winter than what Thome did last winter. The market has been slowly declining since then and it will decline some more. If JP went to Carlos this fall with a four-year, $48M extension, that would be a reasonable offer and excellent value for the franchise.

I'm personally skeptical that Carlos will finish his career as a Blue Jay, however: Peter Angelos is out there with money he's dying to spend, and you know Arte Moreno would love to bring Delgado to Anaheim. The Dodgers will also be in the hunt, as might the Red Sox. I actually believe that if he were faced with several fairly equivalent offers, Delagdo would opt to stay in Toronto for a lesser amount and build a legacy. But since at least one those teams is going to offer him five years at $15M, well ... I don't expect anyone to leave that much money on the table.

you can put together a flow through of 2/3 players who can put up very effective numbers in the DH/1B holes

Interesting discussion. The above statement is true, but .300 / .400 / .600 are not merely "very effective" numbers; they are among the best in the game and there are only a handful of players who can come close to duplicating them. I don't think it's unrealistic for Carlos to put up those numbers from 2005-2007, especially with good hitters in front of him (and he has those).

I'd offer him 2 plus an option at $11 million or so. If his knees give out he can spend more time DH'ing. Beating the Yankees and Red Sox will be difficult enough over the next few years. Trying to do it without the best hitter the organization has ever seen may well be impossible. If Rogers doesn't make an honest effort to sign Carlos I will be one very disappointed fan.

The fact that Delgado was fourth in WS is great but is only one part of the equation. The proper analysis is WS/$, or to be more exact WS/$ over the internally available alternative. After all, at $18.5 million per year he'd better be returning that kind of performance. I think that his salary was third in the league last season after A-Rod and Manny. The decision point on Delgado is whether you can spend the $11-15 million per year on a player or players that will produce more than him (or again, what will they produce above their alternatives versus what will Delgado produce above his replacement) . If Carlos continues to produce at '03 levels that sets a high standard. But to be clear, the Jays have Batista, Lilly, Hentgen, Ligtenberg and Speier for approximately $11.5 million for '04.

Excellent discussion - I have to agree that 4/48 is a good contract to offer, and one that Carlos will probably consider. It probably won't be as high as he could get on the open market, but if negotiations are amicable (as I'm sure they will be), I think Carlos will want to do what he can to stay in Toronto.

I'd also like to address the concept that Delgado is a poor defensive first baseman - every advanced defensive metric I've seen has placed him at around average. His UZR is -2 (slightly below average) and BPro's Rate2 stat has him at 101 for his career (avg: 100) with a 108 and 104 in the last two years.

The big consideration with Delgado is insurance. Insurance companies aren't willing to support big contracts longer than three years and with Delgado's history it's hard to say whether they would insure the Jays for any missed time related to the knees. This was one of the reasons the market for Guerrero was relatively slow given his back issues. It would also explain the Yankees opting for Sheffield over Guerrero.

A team like the Jays could not afford to guarantee a four year deal to Delgado and I think the maximum possible contract they'd offer would three years for between $32 and $36 million. Maybe with an option year tacked on. Delgado is almost sure to get at least one four year offer from some team so his belief in the Jays' forward progress will be key to keeping him around.

Couldn't they just make the fourth year an incentive-related option year, with the incentive something extremely easy for Carlos like 15 HR in 2005 or 2006?

Incentives and contract options based on incentives can't be tied to batting stats or pitching stats or any kind of performance except games played.

Alright, 50 games played then =P

I don't think Carlos Delgado would want to sign such a contract, though, not if he could get it guaranteed somewhere else.

Offering a bunch of non-guaranteed years, especially to a player who has hardly ever missed a game for you, is a slap in the face.

I would happily offer Delgado a guaranteed four-year deal (though I would start at $10 million per season and go from there, I think - I would draw the line at $12 million or so). He has been extraordinarily healthy over the years; and it's not as if we're talking Rafael Palmeiro here... Carlos won't be 32 until June, and would be just 36 when the last year of a four-year deal opens.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that when that age-36 season opens, the Jays will be scrambling again to make another contract offer to Delgado - who will be getting ready to pass 500 career home runs, and designing his plaque for the Hall of Fame.

Craig - you're right, I was referring more to the general problem of insurance companies only covering 3-year deals. Carlos is extremely durable, and moving him to DH if his knees become a problem wouldn't lower his value very much. Anything beyond 4 years would be asking for trouble, though - and that's where the home team bonus comes into play, because I really see some team out there (LA?) offering him 5 years at 65-70 million if he hits the market after a decent 2004.

"I really see some team out there (LA?) offering him 5 years at 65-70 million if he hits the market after a decent 2004. "

I would have thought that too until this offseason. I thought for sure that Guerrero would get an offer higher then 5 years at $70 million. I mean he'a 27 and one of the top five hitters in the game. I thought surely there would be some desperate team willing to sign him for an obscene amount or at least more obscene. Are there really teams who would be willing to spend as much or more on Delgado than on Guerrero, a player four years younger and doesn't play first base? Assuming the Yankees aren't bidding, I just don't see anyone making such an offer. Not in this market.

Well, i think Guerrero's injury concerns and (reported) lack of interest in a lot of teams had something to do with that. Plus, the league as a whole hasn't yet proven to me that it understands the defensive spectrum ;)

I'd be very surprised if Carlos is not still a very productive hitter at age 35 or 36. Bagwell, Palmeiro, and McGriff also posted .900+ OPS numbers at that age, and Carlos is certainly their equal as a hitter.

I was referring more to the general problem of insurance companies only covering 3-year deals

I wouldn't want insurance. Why would I pay some insurance company millions of dollars to insure a contract for a guy who I (and pleny of others) think will be healthy and reliable as a draft horse for the next four years?

The Jays don't have extra millions to spend insuring Delgado's contract... they need to gamble. Now if I was Baltimore, and wanted to sign Vlad Guerrero (but still had millions more dollars to spend), I'd be wanting to insure that contract.

Delgado's dedication and professionalism are my insurance, and with a limited budget they're all the insurance I would need.

By the way, S.K. - good point about the market. Someone will probably offer him five years (maybe even six) - and the home team discount will most likely have to come into play.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040121&content_id=629933&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
Back to the Halladay discussion, COMN for a discussion of a possible 4 or 5 year pact

OK, everyone. Roy Halladay Contest Time! But here's the catch : you can only pick ONE number, for the total value of the contract (length doesn't matter... if it's one, four, five, or even three years... the only thing that matters is the total guaranteed U.S. dollar amount, not inculdung incentives)

OK, everyone. Roy Halladay Contest Time!

32

Roy Halladay Contest

$50 Mil

50

Benum, that was (literally) coincidental. So as not to overlap, i'll now go with 48 million!

41

39

44

46

36

*scanning over the other contestants' bids and checking with friends in the audience*

I bid $1 Bob

On Halladay, $42
7.5,9,10.5,13...13 mil option with 2 mil buyout

On Delgado, several consiederation:

Delgado's contract, if he resigns with the Jays will NOT gaurentee more than 3 years, take it to the bank. Insurance companies will not insure more than 3 years, and that also coincides with the year that Vernon and Hinske's deals expire. Ive projected out the jays payroll through 2008 (yeah it's tons of guesswork) and there is a dramiatic jump in 2008 unless you let someone go. I don't think JP will lock himself into such a delima.

Further, there is absolutly no way we can pay him one nickle more than 12 mil per, and I think we'll be offering less.
My guess is that we'll offer him 3 years at 10 per and be willing to go up to 11.
I also figure he'll get a better offer elsewhere
I also figure we'll get so much better elsewhere that we'll get along just fine without him.
Think of it, assuming that players more or less live up to their projections:
Rios > Johnson
Gross > Cat
Quiroz > Myers/Cash
Hinske 05 > Hinske 03
Wells 05 > Wells 03
Phelps 05 > Phelps 03
SS is at least a wash as is 2B
so if our 05 1B is worse than Carlos...how bad would he have to be to make us have a worse offense overall? Heck, he could be Travis lee and we'd be fine.

There are several options:
1. Jayson Werth. Why anyone with his build and athleticism isn't presumed to be a potential 1B after Delgado is a mystery to me. He seems built for the role of a big long armed target with good range.

Beyond that, as a hitter, there's NO reason I can see why he can't, at a minimum, be a league average guy like Kevin Millar or someone and with a ceiling somewhat higher than that.I think a year like Derrik Lee had last year (.271, .379, .508, 31 HR 92 rbi) is an eminently reasonable projection for him

2. Trade for someone. This is my least favorite option for the simple reason that your choices are mostly ovrpaid for their production. they include Sean Casey, Paul Kenerko, and Doug Mientkiewicz. Dougy is a middling good player but is he that much better than Werth would be? The other two? Ummm...no.

3. Sign someone to play 1B. Here are your prominent !b who (as of now) are scheduled to be FA after 2004:
Derek Lee - may make as much as we were offering to Carlos. Yes his stats will go up in Wrigley, but is he really worth 9-10 mil to us?
Richie Sexson - a possibility
Rafael Palmerio - Love him but how long can he last?
John Olerud - nice warm fuzzies but presumably on the downside.
Travis Lee - competant.
JT Snow - uh, no

4. Sign a 3B and shift Hinske to 1B. If Hinske's D does not recover this year this may be the option which moves to the top of the list. Possibilites:
Eric Chavez - the perfect answer. Except that I can't see JP bidding against his best friend ever. And BB very much want's to keep him.
Troy Glaus - wildly inconsistant offensivly, but very tempting. Still, he'll be at least a 9-10 mil signing too.
Corey Koskie - this would actually be a trade, a possibility.
Aramis Ramirez - let's see if he can string together two good seasons in a row.
Adrian Beltre - some guys never turn the corner, some do - which is he?
Mike Lowell - goes free if the Marlins can't get a staid.
Aaron Boone - not my cup of tea.

Now, that was a long winded way to say this:
We might have a pretty good option here
We certianly have nice options on the market

We can and will survive and even thrive if Carlos leaves. I love him, but Doc is far more crucial to our future than he is.

More food for thought:

Here are some guesstimations (with tons of assumptions so don't nitpick me) based on Carlos signing for 12 a year for 4 years, and us filling all our major gaps from the system (gaurenteed contracts used where aplicable, others are estimated):
[* = upcoming FA]
2005
Halliday 9
Batista 4.75
Lily 2.5
McGowan 0.3
Bush 0.3
Peterson 0.3
Lighten. 2.5
Lopez 0.6
Speier 2.0 (or Adams)
Chulk 0.3
Kershner 0.8
LHFA? 0.5

Quiroz 0.3
Delgado 12
Hudson 0.7
Adams 0.3
Hinske 3
Rios 0.3
Wells 2.9
Gross 0.3
Phelps 0.8

Werth 0.5
Woodward 0.9
Cash 0.5
Johnson 0.65

That's 47 mil ...figure a million or so margin of error and Rogers has already said they want a $48 mil payroll in 2005....

2006
Halliday 10.5
Batista* 4.75
Lily* 4.5
McGowan 0.4
Bush 0.4
Peterson 0.4
Lopez 1
Perkins 0.3
Chulk 0.4
LH? 0.8
Kershner 1.2
Rosario 0.3

Quiroz 0.5
Delgado 12
Hudson 1
Adams 0.4
Hinske 4.325
Rios 0.425
Wells 4.3
Gross 0.4
Phelps 1.5

Johnson 0.7
IF? 0.7
Cash 0.7
Werth 0.7

That comes out to $52.5 mil - you might could whittle a million or so off if you tighty budgeted, but it should be pretty close. Again, other than a backup IF and/or a RP all jobs have to be filled internally. So, if you want to have any wiggle room, you have to get rid of Lily or Batista or someone in that range. Worth noting, Lopez, Kershner, Hudson, and Phelps have reached ARb eligability.

2007
Halliday* 12 (option year to be exercied for 2008)
McGowan 1
Bush 0.9
Rosario 0.5
League 0.3
Peterson 0.5
Lopez 1.3
Perkins 0.7
Chulk 0.7
Vermilya 0.3
Kershner 1.5
Arnold 0.3 (could be any one of several lesser pitchers)

Quiroz 1.5
Delgado* 12
Adams 0.775
Hill 0.3
Hinske* 5.625
Rios 0.7
Wells* 5.6
Gross 1.1
Phelps 3

Johnson 0.9
Werth 1.2
Cash 1
Hudson 1.2

By now, Phelps, Cash, Hudson, Werth, Lopez, Kershner, and Johnson, if they are all still on the team, will be into their arbitration years. Some for the second time - and one might well assume (as I did) that Phelps and Lopez at least have signed multi-year deals. And Gross, Rios, Quiroz, Bush and McGowan are in their last pre-arb year and all might be presumed to be candidates for multi-year deals.
All that makes this hard to estimate but my total of over $55 mil should be in the right neighborhood...possibly within Roger's willingness to pay, but still with no discernable flexability.

2008
Halliday* 13.5
McGowan 2.9
Bush 2.2
Rosario 0.8
League 0.5
Peterson 2
Lopez* 1.5
Perkins 1
Chulk 1
Vermilya 0.5
Leonard 0.3
Arnold 0.4

Quiroz 2
Delgado 12
Adams 1.2
Hill 0.5
Hinske 7
Rios 1.2
Wells 10
Gross 2
Phelps 4.8

Johnson 1.1
Werth 2.5
Cash 1.1
?? 0.3

Now, comes the problem. This is the year you have to resign or replace Wells and Hinske. A reasonable estimate to do so puts the payroll over 70 million - and that's STILL without signing a single major free agent from another team in FOUR YEARS, and assumes that our system can produce a quality major leaguer at every point of need and that we can keep what we pay all those preesumably great talents a reasonable figure.
It's also a very good sign that any Delgado deal simply CAN'T be longer than 3 years unless Rogers is prepared to deal with an almost 25% payroll bump in this year.

Again, it CAN be done (resigning Carlos for up to 12 million) but there ARE consiquences, it's not at all an easy thing.

No ability to edit and I found an error in each of my above posts,

in the first I had intended Halladay's guess to be 7.5-9-10.5-12-13(2) but since that adds up to 41 which is already taken I'll throw in a 1 million signing bonus to be true to my 42.

On the second, I meant to point out the difference in those payrolls (and thus the flexability to add quality players) if you deduct Carlos's 12 mil from each year. In that scenerio, if a Lily or Batista disapoints, or a Peterson or Rios or Gross fails to develop properly, you go out and find a replacement to plug in.

Also, I might note that there would be an excellent chance that in 2008 Hill would shift to 3B and a SS not currently in the system would step in - hopefully one making less than the 7 mil I projected for Hinske. But honestly, projecting rosters, let alone payrolls 5 years out borders on madness if you go into the details.

My only intent is to demonstrate that even at 10-12 mil, resigning Carlos puts us in a box which DEMANDS that either everything else (in terms of player development, injuries, et al) go JUST RIGHT, or the team significantly increase the budget.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=69153
Apparently the jays have got a deal done with Halladay. Four years and $42 million. $6 million for this year, $10.5 million in 2005 and $12.75 million each for the following two seasons. COMN for the story.

Whoops, posted some comments about Doc in the Hijack thread. In case the discussion is here, I pose the question again: Does six million this year leave open the possibility for another signing or will JP bank the remaining million?

http://economics.about.com
Thanks for the tip, guys! I've created a new thread.

Cheers,

Mike

I'm not expecting another signing this season as doing so would require someone else be dropped from the 40-man and the Jays are running out of guys that they don't mind exposing. It does give them a bit of flexibility in making a trade or adding salary before mid-season though.

A fair point