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Just trying my hand at being a Toronto Star headline writer...

Phil Rogers summarizes each of the 30 Major League teams chances of making the playoffs in 2004. The Jays are classified as "Sleepers", along with the Giants, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rockies.

Let me break that down before anybody goes and takes this list too seriously: The Giants and Cardinals are wide awake, the White Sox are more than keeping pace (in reverse) with the Twins, and the Rockies are in a coma. Yup, those sneaky White Sox, compensating for the losses of Bartolo Colon, Tom Gordon, Scott Sullivan, and Carl Everett with a total of one (1) new player on the Major League roster. Relief pitcher by the name of Cliff Politte. Maybe the key is the appointment of Ozzie "Wet Noodle" Guillen as manager.

Phil doesn't have anything startling to say about Toronto, mentioning the three new starters as increased depth, giving a nod to the re-built bullpen and tagging Justin Speier as possible closer, and naming Alexis Rios as a potential impact rookie.

But there's lots of fun in the AL West. Anaheim: "Bank On It", Oakland and Seattle: "For Real". Bank on Anaheim being interesting, but Jose Guillen and Kelvim Escobar are two of the most volatile free agents to sign anywhere, and then there's Le Situation Erstad which has been expounded upon recently in these parts. Oakland is indeed for real, and that's why you can't bank on Anaheim for the playoffs - The AL Wild Card is a loftier goal than the AL West this year. Meanwhile, Seattle's best move this offseason was of the holding-steady variety, signing Joel Pineiro to a 3 year extension. They for real should be considering turfing GM Bill Bavasi, haste, post haste.

Baltimore gets less respect than it has in other parts this offseason, classified as "It Doesn't Look Good" along with Tampa Bay, Cincinatti, Montreal, the Mets, Los Angeles, and San Diego. I'm still expecting LA to do something about their hitting, and I agree with Aaron and other Bauxites that San Diego looks like a sleeper. As for the "Wait Until 2010" class of Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh? No real argument, other than to say I expect Cleveland to rise to sleeper status by 2005.
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_Matthew E - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 02:33 PM EST (#80659) #
No real argument, other than to say I expect Cleveland to rise to sleeper status by 2005.

I noticed that too. I'd rather be a Cleveland fan than Tampa Bay or Baltimore, at this point. Well, maybe I'd put Baltimore about with Cleveland.
robertdudek - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 03:06 PM EST (#80660) #
Cleveland has a good shot at the AL Central. They could burst forward in a Red Sox '67 kind of way.
_Oggman - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 03:44 PM EST (#80661) #
Re: St. Louis

The lineup has four All-Star caliber players, but won't be as good without Fernando Vina, J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero.

This is just silly.

We all know about Vina's futility and declining numbers, Marrero has only once had an OPS+ > 100, and has an average OPS+ 78 for his career. JD Drew wouldn't get the PAs this year because of one of his millions of injuries or because LaRussa doesn't like him.

Okay, so without Drew their lineup won't be as good, without the other two their lineup actually improves.

Why can't Roger's just do a tiny bit of research.
_Jeff - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 03:46 PM EST (#80662) #
Anyone else see the similarities between the Angels and last years Phillies? They both play in a division dominated by one team who supposedly had a bad offseason, outspent everyone in the free agency market, signed the best available player and an overrated player coming off a career year, added a big time starter and whom most pundits predicted would blow away the competition because of their solid core and big dollar additions. But Phillies didn't pull it off and I doubt that the Angels will either. The wierdest part of the Phillies disappointing season is that most of their players actually played quite well - Thome and Millwood made the expected contributions, Abreu, Wolf, Padilla, Polanco and Rollins had their solid and predictable seasons, Lieberthal bounced back nicely and Myers and Byrd emerged as dependable contributors. Some may say that their bullpen let them down but other than Mesa, their bullpen actually pitched very well. It is not hard to see the Angels get the expected contributions from Guerrero, Anderson, Erstad, Colon, Washburn et al and still miss the playoffs. It is not a stretch to imagine Guillen not working out, Glaus or Salmon nursing an injury and playing like Burrell and someone from their bullpen breaking down - Donnelly, Weber and Percival seem like possible candidates. Of course, the Angels aren't managed by Larry Bowa but I get the impression that Moreno may be as much of a distraction.

I also don't understand why everyone is so high on the Astros. They added no offense - they will be worse with the continuing decline of Bagwell, Kent and Biggio. They are horrible defensively. Their bullpen while still an asset is weaker without Wagner. Oswalt and Miller haven't shown that they can stay healthy for an entire season. And can anyone expect Clemens to contribute more than the 15 wins of Robertson or Pettite to pitch with an ERA under 3.50 like Redding at this stage in their career, in that Park and with that defense. Finally, hasn't it been proven yet that teams in hitters park, where good pitching is normally neutralized, should try to outslug their opponent not the reverse?
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 03:47 PM EST (#80663) #
I'm with Robert. Cleveland has a shot at the 85-88 wins that should be enough to win the division.
_Tassle - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 03:51 PM EST (#80664) #
Just thought I'd mention that the ESPN.com player pages have updated scouting reports for all the players with an outlook towards the 2004 season
_R Billie - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 04:27 PM EST (#80665) #
I think whether you emphasize offence or defence in your off-season acquisitions has to depend not on your home park but the current distribution of talent and salaries on your team.

However, when you get a situation as extreme as the Rockies have where almost every pitcher entering your home park starts sucking then I think you have to pour resources into hitting and hope for the best. And by hitting I mean good hitting; star level hitters like Helton and Walker who can become superstar hitters have to litter your lineup because offence is multiplicative. The strength of your offence is proportional to the number of quality hitters you have and if you have a lot of good hitters in a high run environment you should have a good chance at outscoring most teams...at least in your home park.

I don't know what Colorado can do about their situation but their lives would be infinitely easier if they could estimate with any reliability how their pitchers will perform in their park. I don't think they have the luxury of getting by with pitchers who have pedestrian stuff or who rely on breaking balls to get outs. They basically need pitchers with great fastballs and an idea of how to pitch.
Mike D - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 04:35 PM EST (#80666) #
I'm going to respectfully disagree with the Cleveland-as-2004-contender line of reasoning..

First, I have a tough time conceiving of a scenario in which Cleveland wins 85-88 games. Bear in mind that an '03 Jays club accomplished exactly that without getting dominated by Boston and New York in the regular season. Granted, the Jays played eight fewer games against the Tigers than will the '04 Tribe. But 85 wins? From where will all those wins come?

Cleveland matches up really poorly against nearly every team outside the AL Central. They don't walk, and they don't make up the difference in batting average. Cleveland has a significantly worse offence than both the Twins and Royals, and both of those lineups return generally intact (Min) or somewhat improved (KC). The competition in the Central is weak, but can the Tribe's pitching staff make up the offensive shortfall against Minnesota and Kansas City? If you ask me, their pitching is merely decent.

Even if Milton Bradley stays healthy, it's unreasonable to assume that Burks and Lawton will. Brandon Phillips needs to turn his career around in a huge way if Cleveland's going to make noise this season.

Plus, any veterans will be dealt if they're healthy and Cleveland isn't unequivocally in the thick of the Central race. Mark Shapiro has a long-term plan, and isn't going to stray from it if the playoffs are merely possible.
_Ben NS - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 05:04 PM EST (#80667) #
I don't see the Indians winning anything of note in 2004 because their players are not developped enough at this point. However, it's a great time to be an Indians fan, as they will contend relatively soon and they were in the playoffs as recently as 2001. Great moves and great prospects I guess.
Coach - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 07:34 PM EST (#80668) #
Phil Rogers thinks "guys like Tino Martinez, Jose Cruz Jr., Danys Baez, Rey Sanchez, Geoff Blum, Mike Williams and Todd Jones bring a sense of upward mobility" to the "massively improved" D-Rays. I think they would have had trouble finding jobs anywhere else.

I'm with Mike D. on the Tribe -- they will be improved, but they aren't ready, and they will be sellers at the deadline, so they may swoon in August and September. There's no way they win 80 games, and someone in that division -- most likely the Twins or Royals -- will be a .500 club.
robertdudek - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 08:27 PM EST (#80669) #
Coach - I'll take that 80+ wins bet. This is one of the weakest divisions in baseball history we're talking about.
_S.K. - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 09:41 PM EST (#80670) #
Coach - I think Cruz Jr. and Baez are both quality players, if not exactly superstars. It's unfair to lump them in with the likes of Tino and Todd Jones.
Mike D - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 01:16 PM EST (#80671) #
Robert, I'd take that bet if Coach won't. Cleveland's going to have to legitimately clean up against Minnesota, Kansas City and Chicago to get 80 wins, because I like any club from the East and West -- except maybe Tampa and Texas -- against Cleveland in any head-to-head series. Who can hit Santana on the Tribe? Who can shut down Berroa-Beltran-Sweeney?

Cleveland is one of the reasons the Central is so weak. They're not well-positioned to benefit from the weakness of their rivals. Give Billy Traber time to heal, give Cliff Lee time to develop, give Milton Bradley time to mature. Their future is not now.
robertdudek - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 02:22 PM EST (#80672) #
Okay, Mike D.

Keeping in mind that this akin to a friendly bet, what are the stakes?
_S.K. - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 02:46 PM EST (#80673) #
More importantly, what are the chances either of you will remember this bet beyond next week? =)
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 03:27 PM EST (#80674) #
Why should Cleveland win 80 plus games this year?

1. Good young players already in the majors- Bard, Hafner, Phillips, Gerut, Milton Bradley

2. Infusion of talent from the high minors-Martinez, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore

3. 76 games against the Royals, Twins, White Sox and Tigers

These are not the 67 Red Sox in the sense that they do not have a Yaz, but they look a lot better coming into 04 than the Royals did coming into 03.

It's important to remember that the Royals significantly outperformed their pythags. Tony Pena may be a great manager, but my money's on the Johnson effect (teams that outperform their pythags fall 2/3 of the time).
Mike D - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 05:43 PM EST (#80675) #
Robert,

We'll go to a 2005 Jays game (or 2004, if Cleveland's status vis-a-vis .500 is determined early) in the 100 level when I'm in town. Winner goes at the other's expense. 81 wins is a push. I win with 80 or fewer, you win with 82 or more. Agreed?

(S.K., the chances of us remembering this bet are basically negligible. But I'm good for the ticket if I'm called on it.)

A 42-36 divisional record would be an impressive achievement for Cleveland. That involves going 13-6 against Detroit and 29-30 against Minnesota, Kansas City and Chicago combined. Then, they'd have to go 40-44 against the rest of baseball. I just don't see it!

Mike Green, the '04 Tribe isn't an easy comp to the '03 Royals. Kansas City had very good hitting, and lucked into enough pitching so as not to waste all of their runs scored. Cleveland has decent pitching...I suspect it might be harder to luck into hitting. Plus, KC scored runs in bunches on the road, while Cleveland's pitching was only really successful in their home (pitcher's) park.

Brandon Phillips wasn't a good major leaguer. In fact, he was a lousy AAA player last year, and drew sharp criticism from Mark Shapiro -- who went so far as to publicly declare that Phillips' "prospect" days could be numbered without a sea change in attitude and approach at the plate. Bard can't hit righties, and Hafner can't hit lefties. Gerut and Bradley are good -- but who in the American League (other than Detroit) doesn't have two position players of that calibre in their lineup? Are they better than, say, Baldelli and Huff?

So that leaves us with the likes of Martinez, Lee and Sizemore. Lightning would really have to strike for all three to emerge with enough force to overtake the three flawed, but more deep and seasoned, Central clubs that finished above them last season.
Mike D - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 05:44 PM EST (#80676) #
Whoops. That should read...

42-34 vs. division
29-28 vs. Chi, Min, KC
40-46 vs. rest of baseball
_Spicol - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 08:22 PM EST (#80677) #
Who knew that Cleveland had the 5th best Team ERA in the AL last season? Put up your hand. It sure did shock me.

Pretty much everyone is returning so the Indian pitching staff should be good again this season, improved by a full season of Cliff Lee and some offseason pickups. David Riske, Jose Jimenez, Scott Stewart, Rafael Betancourt, a healthy Bob Wickman and a bunch of better than average bullpen arms are going to give Cleveland one of the best pens in the majors next season.

If they can scrape up some runs, I see no reason why Cleveland can't win 80. But of course, just as easily, the young guys could go backwards and the Indians could lose 94 again.
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 08:43 PM EST (#80678) #
KC's offence in 2003 was not very good. Kaufman Stadium was a better hitter's park than Coors last year, and has been a very, very good hitter's park for 4 years. By contrast, Jacobs Field was quite a pitcher's park last year. Cleveland essentially has the same challenge that KC had last year- find and develop a pitching staff. I see Sabathia, Lee and Danys Baez as a good start.
_logan - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 08:53 PM EST (#80679) #
Kaufman Stadium was a better hitter's park than Coors last year

I don't see how you can say that. With next to no common opponents, it would be impossible to rate these two parks against each other.
robertdudek - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 09:16 PM EST (#80680) #
Okay, it's a bet.
robertdudek - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 09:17 PM EST (#80681) #
Baez is in Tampa Bay now (non-tendered).
Mike D - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 09:56 PM EST (#80682) #
KC's offence in 2003 was not very good.

Mike Green, I'm not with you on this one. Kansas City was fourth in the AL in runs scored at home...and also fourth in the AL in runs scored on the road -- and they were at the biggest park-effect disadvantage, since they played no road games at Kauffman. Cleveland was thirteenth at home, and eleventh on the road -- again, with no road games at pitcher-friendly Jacobs Field.

Cleveland essentially has the same challenge that KC had last year- find and develop a pitching staff.

No, it's a very different challenge: They have to find and develop a starting nine. The Tribe was 259/318/417 on the road, and 248/314/384 at home last year. Even if three of Alex Escobar, Milton Bradley, Matt Lawton and Ellis Burks stay healthy and fill the corner OF/DH spots -- a real longshot, if experience teaches us anything -- they still have to hope (1) that Hafner (or a Hafner/Ludwick platoon) improves; and (2) Casey Blake hasn't maxed out his potential with his so-so season at third. If all that occurs, then they only have offensive question marks at C (young), SS (old), 2B (bad) and CF (Coco).

We'll see. I think we can all agree that this will be an interesting team to track during the season.
_Jonny German - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 10:39 PM EST (#80683) #
I don't see how you can say that. With next to no common opponents, it would be impossible to rate these two parks against each other.

Common opponents has very close to nothing to do with it. It's about how much a park increases scoring compared to a league average park. For example, in Kaufman Stadium, the Royals and their opponents scored 945 runs, while on the road they scored 758 runs. This is what tells us that Kaufman Stadium was a hitter's park. We don't need to know anything about who they were playing as long as they were playing the same teams on the road as at home. This will never be exactly ture, but it's close enough for what Mike Green is saying.
_logan - Thursday, January 22 2004 @ 10:30 AM EST (#80684) #
Common opponents has very close to nothing to do with it. It's about how much a park increases scoring compared to a league average park.

Thanks for stating the obvious. I know what a park factor is, smart guy. However, the two parks are in different leagues so the park factors are not directly comparable.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 22 2004 @ 10:50 AM EST (#80685) #
Mike D,

My point was comparing KC entering 2003 and Cleveland entering 2004. In 2002, Kansas City scored 303 runs on the road, last in the league. In 2003, they scored 403 runs on the road, which was 4th in the league, but 2 runs better than the 6th place team. Cleveland scored 369 runs on the road last year. There is no reason bearing in mind the youth of Cleveland's team, and the minor leaguers who may make a contribution that Cleveland cannot have roughly the same productivity from their offence as KC has.
_Jonny German - Thursday, January 22 2004 @ 12:05 PM EST (#80686) #
I know what a park factor is, smart guy. However, the two parks are in different leagues so the park factors are not directly comparable.

I'm not nearly as smart as you think I am. To me, a park factor measures how much offense is amplified or diminished by the park. I don't see why it matters that the two parks are in different leagues given that the overall talent level of the two leagues is very similar. Are you saying that Kaufman Stadium would have a different effect on National League players than it does on American League players?
robertdudek - Thursday, January 22 2004 @ 12:26 PM EST (#80687) #
It measures the park effect in relation to the other parks in the pool of the games played by a given team. It's possible that NL parks as a whole increase or decrease offence WRT AL parks.
_S.K. - Thursday, January 22 2004 @ 01:57 PM EST (#80688) #
Can't interleague games measure that somehow? Or is it too small a sample size?
robertdudek - Thursday, January 22 2004 @ 07:19 PM EST (#80689) #
Sample size is fairly small, and the parks change over time, so collecting all inter-league games over 7 years may not be all that helpful. You also have to adjust for DH/non-DH.
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