Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Flashback: John Olerud, 1989

Flashback: John Olerud, 1989

In Friday's Ask BA, Jim Callis links to a piece he wrote about John Olerud back in 1989. Although I don't have any particular comments to make about it, I thought it was a very good article; besides, it's been a rather slow weekend around the Box, so why not start a thread?

The Blue Jays, their fans, and the Toronto media have a peculiar history of blaming the team's failures on their best players. Perhaps I'm exaggerating the peculiarity of this behaviour; after all, Ted Williams was routinely made the scapegoat for the Red Sox' shortcomings in the 1940s and 1950s, and Dan Duquette actually went on the record as saying that Roger Clemens was "in the twilight of his career" in 1996. However, the Red Sox at least had the sense to keep Williams around, if not Clemens. For me, one of the lowest points in Blue Jays history was the departure of Roberto Alomar in 1995. Alomar certainly contributed his share to the atmosphere of ill-will, but I don't think the Jays tried to mend fences as diligently as they might have done.

John Olerud's departure after the 1996 season was equally nonsensical. The worst thing Olerud ever did for himself in Toronto was hit .363/.473/.599 in 1993; after that, his usual .290/.390/.450 would never be given the respect it deserved. From 1990 through 1996, Olerud posted EqAs of .290, .285, .300, .364, .296, .285, and .287 and was a total of 55 fielding runs above average, yet he never accumulated 500 AB in a season other than 1993, and was below 400 AB three times. Before leaving Toronto, he averaged 500 PA per season (excluding 1993); since the trade to New York, he's averaged 669. If we extrapolate his 1990-1992 and 1994-1996 numbers to full-time play, he ends up with 238 extra hits, putting him at 2314 through age 34. According to the Favorite Toy, those 238 extra hits would boost his chance of reaching 3000 from 11% to 32%. (Disclaimer: The Favorite Toy is just that, and Olerud sat a lot of games against lefties in Toronto, so these numbers shouldn't be taken too seriously.)

Olerud isn't anywhere close to a Hall of Fame career, but if his 2003 decline turns out to be a blip and he staggers to 3000 hits, he just might get elected. Should that extremely unlikely event come to pass, he'll be the first player with a Hall of Fame helmet rather than a cap, but it most likely won't have a Fighting Jay on the front. Which is something of a shame.

Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 05:21 AM EST.

Flashback: John Olerud, 1989 | 22 comments | Create New Account

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_Robbie Goldberg - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 05:36 PM EST (#80859) #

I read that article a few days ago and I certainly agree it was a great one. It also portrays Pat Gillick in a very positive light as he made a very risky third round pick that clearly paid off big time --- making a move that the current Ricciardi regime would almost probably never do. It kinda makes you think twice about the Jays current drafting approach...
(I'm not saying that I don't think guys like Bush, Hill, Adams Banks etc. will not turn out fine, but I don't think you can produce top-end talent like Gillick/Wilken did)

_Chris - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 07:34 PM EST (#80860) #

I would have liked to have seen the Jays in a situation where they needed an emergency pitcher and had Olerud trot in from 1st base to take the mound. That would have been sight.

I think Ricciardi would have taken Olerud, he likes those polished college hitters. The only reason why it was a risky move on Pat's part was that he may not have signed because he told everyone that he wasn't going to. I think it turned out to be a great move on Pat's part with little actual risk because you kept your first 2 picks and was able to spend your 3rd rounder on a guy who conceivably could have been the first pick of the draft.

Pat understood that and rewarded Olerud appropriately. I guess it is a good thing that the Olerud pick did turn out because the Jays real 1989 first round pick Eddie Zosky sure didn't.

_Niles - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 07:40 PM EST (#80861) #

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
Did anybody else notice that 50 cent was wearing a Jays cap on SNL last night?

_JohnL - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 08:14 PM EST (#80862) #

Regarding Callis's reply:
Olerud never played the outfield and I don't think the Jays ever considered the idea.

In fact, there was talk of Olerud moving to the outfield. I don't know if it was serious or not, but this was in the fall of 1990. With McGriff entrenched at first, it didn't appear that there would be a position for him, and spending a career at DH wasn't too appealing. I sort of remember that the Jays had had him play some outfield in the fall league, but I might be wrong.

Of course, that was the off-season McGriff was traded.

_Rob - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 09:38 PM EST (#80863) #

Niles: did he really? I don't watch SNL because it isn't funny, but that's kind of weird. Does anyone have a picture or something of it?

Craig B - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 10:42 PM EST (#80864) #

Oh man, does that ever take me back. Thanks, John.

Olerud is one of my very favourite baseball players of all time (Top 10, easily) -- I hope he can bounce back this year. The great thing about Olerud isn't his incredible natural talent (definitely one of the most naturally talented players in baseball)... it's his no-nonsense approach to the art of hitting. It makes him a joy to watch.

I bet his approach on the mound was similar, he would have been a fun guy to watch I think. The John Oleruds of the world make being a baseball fan the most natural thing there is.

_John Neary - Sunday, January 18 2004 @ 11:07 PM EST (#80865) #

Craig,

It's worth pointing out that Olerud's 2003 wasn't as bad as some have made it out to be. A .279 EqA, -2.0 RAP, and 20.3 RARP aren't worth $7.7 million, but if he can keep up that pace, he'll deserve a first-base job somewhere.

For me, at least, there's a strong correlation between how many doubles a player hits and how much I enjoy watching him. And I'm not talking leg doubles or hard grounders down the line. I'm talking ropes to the alleys and the corners, particularly the opposite way. In 1993, it seemed like Olerud could double into either gap whenever he felt like it. Same with Delgado in 2000.

john

_Chris - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 03:41 AM EST (#80866) #

Will Olerud continue to play or simply retire if Seattle doesn't offer him a new contract. The whole reason for he went to Seattle in the first place was to be closer to his family.

The Jays may have an opening at first base after next season if he has any want to come back to Toronto.

_Matthew E - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 10:16 AM EST (#80867) #

I remember a story a co-worker told me back in . . . summer of '90? Might have been '91. I wasn't sure whether to believe it at the time, so take it with a grain of salt.

Anyway, this guy told me of a party he attended that was hosted by a Blue Jay of the time, whom we will call Bill because that was not his name. My co-worker asked him if John Olerud was around because he'd always wanted to meet Olerud. Bill laughed and said, "No, he's probably asleep already."

Of course, Bill, despite a lot of talent, never became a major league regular, and Olerud became John Olerud, so the moral of this story should be clear.

_Spicol - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 10:43 AM EST (#80868) #

Is the role of Bill played by "Eddie Zosky"?

_Santa - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 10:54 AM EST (#80869) #

Olerud is one of my favorite Jay players of all time. I think the Jays screwed up with his development. They should have let him develop in the minors a bit before exposing him to MLB pitching. I think he could have been a Wade Boggs type of player, but with more power (20-25 HR, 80-95 RBI). The Jays kept on trying to adjust his hitting style to be a 30-40 HR, 100+ RBI guy.

Olerud sounds like the type of player Billy Beane would want. The year after hitting .360 when he was struggling, the talk of the town as to what was wrong with Olerud was he wasn't swing at 1st pitches. Olerud has always been a first pitch look type of player, eg Scott Hattiberg from Money Ball. He takes a lot of pitches.

The Jays simply dropped the ball with Olerud. Didn't even get a good return for him in the trade to NYM.

_Ryan Day - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 11:25 AM EST (#80870) #

Yeah, but Robert Person threw hard. That's important, right?

Olerud was an example of Ash backing himself into a corner, letting everyone in MLB know that he simply had to trade the guy. (See also: Roger Clemens; David Wells; Shawn Green) To be fair, just about anything would seem like a disappointment after 1993, but he was still the best hitter on the team, even if he was a little overpaid.

_Ryan Day - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 11:25 AM EST (#80871) #

_Rich - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 01:00 PM EST (#80872) #

making a move that the current Ricciardi regime would almost probably never do

Perhaps, but you can't ignore the circumstances. Gillick was free to throw around unusually large bonuses (Olerud, Green, Pett) and JP certainly does not have that luxury. Gillick could afford to gamble a first-round pick on Steve Karsay, who told everyone he was going to LSU and wouldn't sign. The Jays offered him a large bonus, and he signed. There isn't a chance in hell that today's Jays could risk drafting a first rounder that may not sign. Green also said he was going to Stanford until Gillick offered him the largest bonus ever for a high school outfielder (or close to it anyway - 700K). I think it's completely unfair to compare Gillick's draft strategy to JP's. The two were operating with entirely different needs, rules and restrictions.

Coach - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 02:08 PM EST (#80873) #

J.P. has a few things in common with the Pat Gillick who built the championship Jays teams, most notably a successful scouting background and creativity in procuring talent. Of course, as Rich points out, Ricciardi doesn't have the giant cheque Gillick needed to change the "unsignable" Olerud's mind, but it wouldn't surprise me if J.P. made a similar selection some day. He's not afraid to be unconventional; in 2002, the Jays took Chris Leonard, who was rumoured as a first-rounder until his Tommy John surgery, with an eighth-round pick.

Count me as another huge Olerud fan. A classy guy, as smooth and efficient with the glove as with the bat. I don't know if he would have been even better with a year of minor-league seasoning, but it's a shame that Cito Gaston didn't appreciate John's approach to hitting and kept trying to change it.

_Ryan Day - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 02:39 PM EST (#80874) #

J.P. also drafted Matt Foster, who was going to have to serve a stint in the military before starting his pro career.

I don't think J.P. necessarily has any aversion to gambling, but he simply doesn't have either (or both) of the resources or inclination to be a high-stakes gambler.

_Rich - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 03:10 PM EST (#80875) #

Can anyone think of any other players like Olerud and David Justice, who almost always seemed to be on winners, even though they moved around a bit? The Jays and Mets both declined once Oly left (not that he was the sole reason). Classy guy and terrific player - the kind that makes kids look up to professional athletes.

An interesting sidenote: a former sandlot teammate of mine had a cup of coffee in the M's system a couple of years ago (he's now back playing in the Northern League - from where they had originally plucked him). In spring training he stuck to Olerud like glue, trying to gain as much hitting knowledge as he could, and reported that Olerud was very kind and generous with him.

_Harry Heatherin - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 04:41 PM EST (#80876) #

Can anyone think of any other players like Olerud and David Justice, who almost always seemed to be on winners, even though they moved around a bit?

Wasn't it Don Baylor at the end of his career that always seemed to be coming up big in the ALCS? Or was that Steve Henderson ...

Oh, the joys of getting old. Did I mention my sciatica? Whippersnappers ...

_Mick - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 06:23 PM EST (#80877) #

I would have liked to have seen the Jays in a situation where they needed an emergency pitcher and had Olerud trot in from 1st base to take the mound. That would have been sight.

A good argument can be made that Jose Canseco's brief pitching appearance for the Rangers ultimately cost him a spot in the Hall of Fame. He injured himself and was never really Jose Canseco after that.

Can anyone think of any other players like Olerud and David Justice, who almost always seemed to be on winners, even though they moved around a bit?

C'mon Jays fans! Give it up for Jack Morris!

_coliver - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 08:06 AM EST (#80878) #

Travia Question:

What was George Bell's nickname for Olerud?

robertdudek - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 04:10 PM EST (#80879) #

Joe Morgan, Reggie Jackson.

_S.K. - Wednesday, January 21 2004 @ 04:31 PM EST (#80880) #

Luis Sojo. Heh =)

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