John's work is admired by many of us at the Box. My question concerns subjective evaluation of the minor league control pitcher. Take a hypothetical 22 year old AA ball pitcher who is effective without a big-time fastball and strikes out 6 per 9IP and walks 2 per 9IP. What is the first thing John will look for in evaluating the prospect's chance of major league success when he sees the prospect? (Stuff, mechanics, command or something else)

First Boyd and now Sickels...great job guys!

A prospect that I'd like to learn more about would be Davis Romero. Maybe it's a testament to the encouraging state of affairs with respect to Blue Jay pitching prospects, but I haven't really come across too much information on this pitcher other than interpretation of his statistics. His age, strikeout numbers, control and lefthandedness would seem to indicate that he is a player who could someday make a valuable contribution to the big league club. My main question is: Is he for real? Also, I'd like to know any information concerning his repertoire of pitches, his makeup, his strengths and weaknesses, etc.

Thanks to John for agreeing to this interview, and congratulations to Gerry and the Box in general.

Who do you count among your "greatest hits", current major leaguers that you pegged for success when other analysts disagreed? Who has surprised you the most by not becoming a star?

Do you believe there is any fail-proof scouting, drafting, and development plan to allow a club to maintain a top minor league system indefinitely, or is luck (or a whack of money) absolutely necessary?

If you were the director of a major league farm system, would you consider implementing a tandem-starter system? Would you do it throughout the system or just at the lower levels?

What positions do you expect the Blue Jays to look to draft in the first 3 rounds of the 2004 draft? Do you expect to see them "roll the dice" a little more in terms of taking high schoolers?

Along the same lines as one of Jonny's questions....

- How does John check his results and how successful has he been ? e.g. How many of his A+ players go on to be A+ major leaguers.

- What have been the most significant changes to his methodology (if any) over the years ?

Gerry, great work bringing John into Da Box. Like everyone else, I'm really looking forward to what he has to say. I'll add, as someone who bought his new self-published book last year, that it's an invaluable resource and very well worth picking up.

I would propose a few questions for John:

- How many minor-league games does he try to see over the course of a year? Does he also attend spring training, and if so, where? When observing a player in person, what primarily does he look for (in pitchers and batters)?

- Turning to the Jays, how does he rate their 2003 draft? How does he assess the acumen of the front-office staff (Scott, Lacava, Buckley, Lalonde, Law, and of course Ricciardi)? The organization has brought in a lot of new scouts over the last year -- has he heard anything about the fresh personnel?

- If he could name one minor-league Jays pitcher and one hitter that he didn't include in his book, but who are still worth keeping an eye on, who would they be?

Another great interview!

1) You seem to rely on statistical methods more than most scouts and many evaluators. Yet you do travel to watch prospects in person. I'm sure there are many prospects you anxiously look forward to watching based on their impressive statistics. Can you give an example where your opinion of a player has changed significantly upon viewing a player and hearing other scouting opinions, despite the direction that their statistics alone would have lead you in?

2) Did the Pirates make some large mistakes when filling out their protected list this winter? In particular, will the loss of Chris Shelton come back to hurt them? He absolutely dominated Lynchburg (A ball), but struggled somewhat at Altoona (AA). If given significant playing time in Detroit how do you think he'd fare? Do you think his struggles at at AA (and his advanced age for A ball) are significant warning signs?

3) I know he won't be featured in your book this year, but is there a better young starter in baseball who has not been given a look in a major league starting rotation than Rafael Soriano?

4) Let's suppose a team become so cash strapped that it decided to save money by firing its entire scouting staff and switching to statistical methods alone to evaluate young players. Assuming their statistical methods focussed on similar ratios and numbers that you emphasize, would such a team do much worse than many of the teams relying on more traditional methods? Would a) luck, and b) superior teaching at the minor league levels be able to overcome any disadvantage that arose?

I'd like to understand what skills John views as ones that can be "learned" and ones that cannot. I often read baseball people talk about strike zone judgement and defensive footwork (as examples) of skills that can be learned (and hence things that when you see a player in the minors not doing well you can still project them to acquire those skills). In other words, when I go to minor league games I am often struck by the fact that most young players have certain things obviously wrong with their skill set and I would be interested to understand which ones John thinks are fairly fatal and which ones he is less concerned with.

What is the outlook for Brian Reed and Bubbie Buzachero? Their numbers at Auburn were great but they do not seem to get the hype as some of the other Jays' propects. Is there a reason we should have some hesitation about them (other than they are pitchers)? Does the fact they are relievers hinder their chances? Maybe you could explain how you analyse and project players like this.

I'm curious if he's had any MLB organizations talk to him about a job.

Great coup by the Box - I consider Sickels to be the #1 voice to listen to on prospects today (with a nod to our own Bauxites when it comes to Jays youngsters =))
I'd like to ask him a question about something that's always interested me - the strategy of trading away prospects for proven major leaguers. As a veteran prospect watcher who evaluates dozens of these trades every year, what does he think of this strategy? Is there any kind of prospect he would not trade for established talent, or any kind which a team trading veterans should especially look out for?
(aside from the obvious factors - perceived value/current value, and park-inflated/deflated stats).

Why is it that so many of the Blue Jays top prospects seem to have such a big statistical drop off once they get to AAA (eg. Jason Arnold, Mike Smith, Vinnie Chulk, Gabe Gross, Jayson Werth, Dewayne Wise?) Can it be simply explained as the players inability to take the next step or are there systemic reasons such as lack of preparation, coaching or sufficient emphasis on the fundamentals and skills required to excel at that level?

Is the great season by the Auburn Doubledays an indication of an extremely talented 2003 draft or merely a mature team of college players beating up on younger/less developed competition?

great job Gerry!
I see above all of the methodology related stuff already asked.
My additional personal question is about our lefties: Chacin, Leonard, Mareau (sp? ) , are they all bullpen bound or he has seen a solid starter out of the bunch?. It is still early to tell? I would love to hear that in one of our weaker areas there is hope...

I purchased Sickels' book last year as well and would highly recommend it if you are looking for a great minor league resource. It's one of those books that you find yourself picking up and reading periodically over several years.

I have to agree with Pistol on this one. I purchased "The Baseball Prospect Book" last year, and every time there was a trade with prospects included I always turned to Sickels' book to have a look at the players involved. I'll be buying his book this year (comes out soon).

There isn't really much of a recent sample to go on with these players but I'm wondering about John's views on Francisco Rosario, Chris Leonard, Edward Rodriguez, and Chi-Hung Cheng.

I have to agree with Pistol on this one. I purchased "The Baseball Prospect Book" last year, and every time there was a trade with prospects included I always turned to Sickels' book to have a look at the players involved. I'll be buying his book this year (comes out soon).

The cool thing about last year's book is it's simplicity. The cover is a maroonish color and all it says is 'The Baseball Prospect Book by John Sickels' on the cover.

I read that the book is going to be more polished and professional looking this year.....too bad.

I wanted to ask about a pair of first basement that you rank in your top 10 - Justin Morneau and Casey Kotchman. I'm surprised that they didn't slip. Morneau, because he didn't make a huge splash late last year and then had a disappointing winter season, and Kotchman because he has yet to show power numbers due to lingering injuries. In light of the fact that first base is a position where power is very important, are you worried that time is running out on them as top prospects??

I would like to know about a couple of the pitchers that were signed to the 40 man. In particular Jesse Harper. He has two great seasons in a row and was promoted straight to the 40 man. What does he see for Jesse and were the Jays afraid that he would not make it through the Rule V draft?

1. Can you discuss the "stuff" edward rodriguez (dominican summer league) has ? why has he been so successful.

2. McGowan allowed hits are quite high in AA. Is it a flaw, or do you think the jays are trying to teach him command of the strike zone by forcing him to throw strikes. Halladay is that type of pitcher so maybe they are trying to impart this philosophy

Also, 5 wp and 4 hb seems high ... how do you assess his control compared to lets say david bush.

I tend to be a little interested in some of the fringy guys, or guys who are harder to find info on...so would be curious to hear about some of them....
Josh Boyd commented on *actual* news/observations about Francisco Rosario which rekindled intrigue in him for 2004. Has John seen Chris Leonard and how does he look for next year?
RHP Juan Manzueta has been dominant for two years in the DSL. Any comments about him? Or, in general, where can fans get more info on DSL guys....ages, dates signed, etc.? How do some of TO's other big arm-mixed result imports stack up - Ramon Mora, Yesson Berroa, Juan Perez? Any word on why RHP Juan Altuve, who seemed like a nice prospect, was released last year?
How intiguing are TO's draft and follow guys - James Coker, Aric Van Gaalen, Chris Nieto, if at all? Did Brad Depoy go to Juco or a 4-yr school? Does TO still have rights to LHP Michael Gordon or OF Patrick Breen?
It'd be really cool to have one of the BA guys do an interview right around draft time.

Who will be the most hyped player to never attain his lofty goals.

john, has anyone developed an overall offensive metric thatincorporates and accounts for splits when facing left-handed or right-handed pitchers? (a rather long-winded explanation follows...bear with me)

baseball's discreet in the sense that a regular season is split into 162 separate elements...whether a team wins 16-1 or 2-1, the effect is the same: just one win. Now let's assume that player A and player B both face 81 games of left-handed pitching and 81 games of right-handed pitching. Player A hits lefties and righties equally well (.300/.400/.500, for example) while Player B hits righties REALLY well (.400/.500/.600) but struggles against lefties (.200/.300/.400)...their overall stats work out to be the same (.300/.400/.500) but, given a baseball season's discreet nature, shouldn't player B be considered less 'valuable' than player A because he's significant offensive liability for about half his team's games?

http://uhcougars.ocsn.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/depoy_brad00.html
Hey aingefan, just incase your question doesn't get answered, Brad Depoy did report to the University of Houston (4-year) so we have lost him as a draft and follow candidate. For a 20 round pick, he wasn't a bad gamble.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=sickels_john
COMN for John Sickels' perspective on the Pete Rose situation. I don't really have any questions arising from it, because he explains his reasoning well.

Thanks, Ryan01 for the update on Depoy. I'm going to try to remember to check on him once his first full year is done.

Thanks, Ryan01 for the update on Depoy. I'm going to try to remember to check on him once his first full year is done.

Thanks, Ryan01 for the update on Depoy. I'm going to try to remember to check on him once his first full year is done.

It'd be really cool to have one of the BA guys do an interview right around draft time.

Yes, it would, but they might be swamped with such requests and unable to talk to a team-specific blog. We will do everything we can to provide the best Jays-centric coverage of the draft, but people aren't as busy right now as they will be in the middle of the season.

Getting back to the topic of this thread, surely there are more questions for John Sickels.

I'd like to ask him about additional resources for enthusiastic amateurs like us. Apart from his book, what other sources does he recommend? In particular, it seems hard to find information about college players, unless you go to the Web sites of the individual schools.

I'd also like John to comment on a couple of the surprises who have become Blue Jays -- what was his assessment of Chris Woodward and Reed Johnson during their minor-league careers?

Do you agree that Kevin Cash initially seemed overmatched as a hitter at each new level, before eventually improving? Do you think he will ever contribute with the bat in the big leagues?

Hey, guys, plenty of questions here, and I'll be writing up my responses this weekend. Sorry about the delay.

A Rios question - was this explosion as much of a surprise as it seemed to the casual fan, or did he show performance-based signs of this brilliance earlier? (ie, signs not of the "well, he's a terrific athlete" kind). I for one had thought rather lazily that he was a bust and always would be.