It's hard to believe he handles lefties in that manner and gets that many grounders and gives up so few homers with a fastball which is straight. Then again Dan Reichert got beaten like a rented mule with his tremendous movement so maybe there's something to be said for location and deception over stuff.

I'm not thrilled with this signing. It's not just the alleged domestic abuse last summer -- Adams pitched exactly one inning from August 26 to the end of the season. After his DL stint, there was an elbow problem that supposedly required surgery. So I have questions about his character and soundness, but I hope he gives the Fighting Jays 100 high-quality innings.

I presume this is bad news for Pete Walker, who many of us had pencilled in as the long man and emergency starter, and it makes Rule 5 righty Talley Haines quite a longshot to stick. It also eats up most of the remaining payroll budget, which means that the backup SS will be someone affordable, like Chris Gomez.

The elbow problem was apparently bone chips which were removed and he also suffered from a strained oblique. Adams will reportedly be 100% for spring training. I know nothing about the charges so I won't comment on those but it seems the Jays don't have a problem with it. They made an offer to Escobar despite his cloudy background afterall.

I've always figured the Jays were going to end up with a bargain bin shortstop. The field is just too thin to yield anyone above average now that Aurilia is likely going to the Mariners for one year at around $4 million.

Hmm I hardly know anything about this guy. (I rarely watch NL baseball and I picked up Extra Innings late last season) He seems to have pretty darn good numbers so on that front i'm pretty pleased at what we're getting. I just hope his character or his recent injury becomes an issue. I would've rather have seen a SS come here but I guess you can never have enough pitching.

Pete Walker is still safely with the Jays it seems as Sportsnet is reporting that it will likely be Tom Wilson who is put on waivers to make room. This must mean that the Jays have a lot of confidence in Cash and/or Quiroz getting significant playing time in 2004. If Myers goes down they don't have much catching depth left.

Halladay, Batista, now Adams?... Hudson's not being traded anywhere.

Halladay, Batista, now Adams?... Hudson's not being traded anywhere.

Jurgen, what's the connection?

Some questions: how do you guys get italics when you paste another's comment? When can we expect the new Batter's Box design?

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
Jurgen, what's the connection?

I think maybe the connection is that they're groundball pitchers and you'd want to have a good defender like Hudson to suck up those grounders. I'm guessing.

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
how do you guys get italics when you paste another's comment?

http://somecalzoneforderek.blogspot.com/
True, Niles.

Meanwhile, Kevin Brown might become suicidal in Yankeetown.

http://economics.about.com
Keith Talent: You wouldn't happen to be an economics grad student at Cornell, would you?

Cheers,

Mike

Back at the winter meetings when there was (reported) interest on the Jays part in Adams I looked at his stats and he's been great as a reliever.

Ignoring all off the field activity this is the Jays' best bullpen signing so far.

No Mike, he's a Martin Amis character.

Archives are great....what I wrote a month ago:

My first impression of Adams as a possible closer was "WHAT?!?"

But last year he put up a 156 ERA+.

ERA+ by year:
96 - 145
97 - 93
98 - 101
99 - 121
00 - 122
01 - 93
02 - 87
03 - 156

In 2001 and 2002 he spent part of his season in the bullpen, making starts in almost half his appearances.

If you just look at his time as a full time reliever it becomes a little more interesting.

ERA+ by year:
96 - 145
97 - 93
98 - 101
99 - 121
00 - 122
03 - 156

Looking at the splits on ESPN for the last 3 seasons:
7.1 K/9
2.9 BB/9
0.3 HR/9

http://economics.about.com
No Mike, he's a Martin Amis character.

Yeah, I know. But a guy I know at Cornell has the e-mail addy keithtalent@yahoo or hotmail or something like that. Just wanted to know if it was him. :)

Cheers,

Mike

Looking at the splits on ESPN for the last 3 seasons:
7.1 K/9
2.9 BB/9
0.3 HR/9

Those splits are as a reliever

The Jays sure are loading up on semi-expensive middle relief pitchers. Have they been taking lessons from the Phillies?? I thought the "enlightened" teams had decided that the bullpen could be easily and cheaply filled from the minor leagues?

I'm lukewarm on this signing. Admas is clearly nothing special as a starter. As a reliever, well, (a) I was fairly comfortable with the bullpen already and (b) I agree with Greg - what's with spending all this money on good-but-not-great middle relievers? Adams is going to be the fourth reliever on the team or something. Why spend $1.7m on a guy who you'll rarely use in close games?

About whom there are both character and injury questions.

Especially when you need depth both at short and catcher.

I'll defer to JP for now, he still deserves the benefit of the doubt. But I definitely reserve the right to say 'I told you so' if Adams looks like a bad signing 6 or 8 months from now.

I thought the "enlightened" teams had decided that the bullpen could be easily and cheaply filled from the minor leagues?

It certainly can be, yes. That's what the Jays had last year... a bullpen that was dirt-cheap and stocked with retreads, minor leaguers, and waiver wire pickups. It wasn't a good bullpen - it proved to be the team's weak link - but it was passable, and cheap. To say that you can build a bullpen doesn't mean that you should. What a team should do is address its weaknesses intelligently - the Phillies approach is to sign five guys with 20 saves and then wonder why their bullpen isn't any good. The Jays' approach is to look to players who they think are undervalued, and I think they must believe that middle relievers get you more pitcher for your buck. "Middle reliever" is a role, a label that you stick on a guy. It doesn't describe a type of pitcher.

Unlike some, I don't think there's a group of "enlightened" teams and a group of "unenlightened" teams. Every team has a different approach, and values players differently, and sometimes we use the shorthand that someone "gets it" when their decision-making follows sabermetric dogmas. I think a lot of people agree that Billy Beane "gets it", even though he's trying to win with defense, something that analysts traditionally frown upon.

There is no royal road to enlightenment (or geometry), and there are as many paths to success as there are destinations. Ask the Yankees, or the Twins, or the Braves, or the World Champions.

I feel bad for fans of the Orioles, who have looked at their biggest weakness (a rotation of fourth and fifth starters) and decided to fiddle while Rome burned, letting their two best starters (and one of their two best relievers) leave after having traded their #1 guy at the deadline. They have apparently decided instead to sink $160 million into three of the five or six most overrated players in baseball. I wish them luck - it's great to have stars, they are certainly necessary in order to win, and God knows the Orioles system hasn't developed one in a looong time. But with a pitching staff patched with duct tape, the Orioles aren't going anywhere in 2004.

I'd rather be a fan of the Blue Jays, who took their biggest weakness (a bad pitching staff) and addressed it by adding seven solid arms with successful track records (Hentgen, Ligtenberg, Batista, de los Santos, Speier, Lilly, Adams). An overreaction? Maybe, yeah. But at least it's a reaction.

Adams' injuries last year included "loose bodies" in his elbow and a pulled muscle in his side, though the latter problem surfaced immediately after the assault charges were laid, so decide for yourself whether that's too coincidental. He was being courted by other teams this off-season, most notably the Rangers, and I can't imagine the Jays would have signed him without having that arm checked six ways to Sunday, so at this point I'll assume his health is as good as it can be.

In on-field terms, Adams is exactly what the Jays need: an established rubber arm in the pen. Ligtenberg, Speier and Lopez are good for maybe 70 IP each, tops; Kershner, perhaps less. Pete Walker may or may not be needed in the rotation, and Talley Haines is a longshot anyway. The Jays needed someone who could enter a game in the early and middle innings and throw 2 or 3 frames of effective relief before turning it over to the late-inning guys: that's Adams. Although he was a washout as a starter, he has shown that he can take multi-inning appearances in stride. His 10.3 ARP in 2003 would place him between Speier (9.0) and Lopez (11.3) among current Toronto pen inhabitants. Perhaps most importantly, as Jonny pointed out, he's the only RH reliever who can retire lefties more effectively than righties. I think this is a very good signing, conditional of course on his health, as well as the off-the-field matter.

Greg, to answer your question, I think that at this time last year, the Jays probably felt that a useful bullpen could be assembled on the cheap and on the fly; if so, I imagine they were sharply dissuaded from that belief by the brutal performance of last year's relievers. The pen is simply a key part of the pitching staff, particularly when you haven't got the deepest or strongest rotation in the world. Knowing that, and faced with a limited budget, I imagine the Jays decided to shore up the pen with numerous $1M-$2M acquisitions rather than blow the whole wad on one guy. I think it's a sound strategy under the circumstances -- there's clearly no bullpen help to be had from the minors until such time as Adam Peterson is ready to join the big club, which might be 2005 yet.

Turning to the assault charges ... this is obviously a very serious matter, and I salute Bauxites for not speculating or drawing conclusions about the situation at this point. Kneejerk defences and kneejerk condemnations of athletes charged with domestic assault are equally unhelpful until the facts are as clear as possible. I don't have anything useful to add other than these two reports from the Philadelphia Inquirer. The first sets out the details of the arrest and charges in August, which Ryan has accurately recapped for us. The second deals with Adams' plea of guilty in September to a lesser charge of disorderly conduct, and notes that Adams' wife declined to testify against him at that time.

I trust that local scribes like Geoff Baker will unearth some more details about this situation in the next day or so and ask the tough questions we're not able to ask. Certainly, my strong hope is that things work out as well as possible for Adams, his wife and their child, and on a much less important note, that Adams has a successful year in the Blue Jays' bullpen.

By the way, I should clarify my remarks above about Tejada and Guerrero. No one, and I mean no one, is more a fan of Tejada and Guerrero than I. Asked to name five or six players I'm a fan of, they will both turn up in my answer. I *love* those guys. I root for them without reserve or shame, and I'll root for them in an O's uniform too, even as I hate and despise their team.

But I still think that they are both massively overrated.

Incidentally, the Jays are now over budget by my analysis, by a smidgen. I have 27 guys with listed salaries (including Haines, who now likely won't make the team) and it's probably about right... the team will surely average at least one guy on the DL over the course of the year (and therefore need to be paying 26 or 27 salaries).

The total I have for my estimates is $50.546 million. $50.246 without Haines. 13 of the 27 players are pitchers. I am wondering, then, if perhaps Pete Walker may be on his way out? That would get the team very close to the budget (or maybe the team is budgeting less for Lilly or Halladay than I).

All amounts for unsigned players are my estimates...

Delgado $18,500,000
Halladay $8,000,000
Batista $3,600,000
Lilly $2,400,000
Catalanotto $2,300,000
Hentgen $2,200,000
Ligtenberg $2,000,000
Adams $1,700,000
Speier $1,250,000
Myers $900,000
de los Santos $850,000
Hinske $800,000
Woodward $775,000
Berg $700,000
Wells $700,000
Walker $425,000
Phelps $350,000
Wilson $340,000
Hudson $320,000
Lopez $315,000
Johnson $308,000
Kershner $305,000
Towers $305,000
Werth $303,000
Cash $300,000
Clark $300,000
Haines $300,000

Going back to the JP interview:

BB: Has your experience this year changed your view on building a big-league bullpen?

JPR: We only had about five million dollars to work with last year, and we turned it into Cat, Bordick, Myers, Sturtze -– we had to go cheap in the bullpen, because we didn’t have a lot of resources left. We value the bullpen; we think that in the American League it may be more important than your starting rotation.

So we haven’t disregarded it, we just have to work within our budget. I’d love to have Seattle’s bullpen, but we don’t have $95 million right now. That’s why developing our players through the system will allow us to build a good bullpen.

I'd like to see an updated spreadsheet with the salaries (I think this puts them at $50 MM, if not a little higher, but I don't think the Jays are spending more than $8 million on the pen this season.

I'm not concerned about the lack of money for a backup SS. There isn't anyone worth paying more than the minimum for right now (that's obtainable).

http://economics.about.com
The total I have for my estimates is $50.546 million. $50.246 without Haines.

Maybe the budget has gone up with the Canadian Dollar. Remember that every time the Canadian dollar goes up, the Jays get an extra 7.345 Kajillion Dollars. At least that's what the fans were told when the currency was tanking. :)

An interesting (to me, at least) comparison can be made by the 7 guys the Jays got rid of and the 7 guys that replaced them. Here they are, with their 2003 IPs and 2003 WARP3s (wins above replacement:

IN	IP	WARP3	*	OUT	IP	WARP3
Batista	193	5.2	*	Lidle	192	2.8
Lilly	178	4.2	*	Escobar	180	5.4
Hentgen	160	4.3	*	Lurch	158	2.0
Speier	73	2.1	*	Sturtze	89	1.0
Adams	68	2.6	*	Miller	52	1.3
L'berg	59	2.3	*	Politte	49	1.2
de los	52	1.1	*	Tam	44	0.9
TOTAL	783	21.8	*	TOTAL	764	14.6

So if everyone performs at exactly their 2003 level, the Jays should get an extra 7 wins. That seems unlikely to me: everyone that is departing other than Escobar and Miller performed under expectations in 2003 and everyone coming in performed atleast as well as could be expected. A 4 or 5 win improvement from the new set of players isn't out of the question, though. That doesn't mean the Jays will win 90 next year, as there's thousands of other factors than these fourteen arms.

Cheers,

Mike

It'll be interesting to see how the bullpen usage shakes out. As others have alluded to, there's not a huge amount of difference between Lopez, Speier, Ligtenberg, and Adams. I ran some numbers to test this impression. The first line in the chart below is the average of these 4 pitchers (2003 stats and age as of today). The individual player lines are normalized to this average. If you're not familiar with normalizing numbers, the fast & nasty explanation is to think of it this way: Aquilino has a 1.07 in IP, so he was 7% better than the average for IP; Kerry has a 0.94, so he was 6% worse than the average. In all of these stats, a bigger number is better. For 'Age' I defined younger as better, for no better reason than that I'm on the right side of 30 myself.

	Age	IP	WHIP	BAA	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+
Average	30.6	68	1.29	.250	2.58	7.48	3.05	0.87	136
-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Aqui.	1.07	1.07	1.03	1.18	0.73	1.05	0.73	1.41	1.02
Justin	1.01	1.07	0.98	0.97	1.11	1.09	1.08	0.64	0.87
Kerry	0.94	0.86	1.03	0.95	1.30	0.96	1.43	0.63	0.96
Terry	0.99	0.99	0.96	0.93	0.86	0.90	1.00	6.56	1.15

The only column here that stands out as being really out of whack is HR/9. That's due to Adams only giving up one home run in 2003, for an absurdly low 0.13 HR/9. His career HR/9 is 0.57, much more in line with the average here. Other than that, the only numbers off by more than 20% are Kerry's K/BB and Aquilino's K/BB and BB/9.

Question to the Box: If you're J.P., what sort of general guideline do you give Tosca for deploying these arms (along with Kershner, de los Santos, and Walker/Haines)? Committee? Designated closer? Designated Ace? Reliever Roulette, as in 2003?

Acccording to Craig's numbers, the Jays will pay about 7 million for the pen and about 16.5 million for the starting rotation. The pitching side of the ledger represents about 46% of the budget.

My guess here is that the 'White Jays' boys will be back for a try from a different angle.

Fresh from their efforts at trying to save Toronto from a baseball team made up of white guys, they'll now try to save Toronto from 'wife beaters'. I expect the lowest of gutter press coverage from Griffin/Baker. They have no other talents. I imagine all of the sensational statements made when the charges were laid, but not in court where it mattered, will be offered up as inviolate truth. It'd be nice to see a player sue one of them personally.

On the more important questions that the gutter press, I imagine spring training will be used to sort out roles. My guess is that if one person steps up and is largely unhittable, they'll use that person as typical closer. I think Speier will be given first shot at that role.

The bullpen can be cheaply filled from the minors but not "easily". I think that is still the plan, but the quality arms are not ready yet. Sure we could have filled the gap with the Thurmans, Walkers, Cassidy's again for a mediocre pen but the focus has shifted from rebuilding to winning. These vets are all 1 or 2 year deals. Once impact guys like Peterson, Marcum, etc have proven that they are ready they will take over. The Jays aren't afraid to let a young player take over, but only after they have earned the job. They don't like to rush players.

Jordan, thanks for the info on the assault charges, I read that he had a court date in September but couldn't find anything after that.

Seeing as nobody else has reported anything whatsoever, I can only assume one of two possibilities. Either the deal is not official... they may have reached a dollar figure, but they are still checking out his health... or this is just another error in ESPN's databases. Nothing against ESPN's reporting but their website seems to have some little glitches now and then.

I'd like to see an updated spreadsheet with the salaries

I guess I should make my points quicker so I can see that someone has taken care of that for me already.......

Question to the Box: If you're J.P., what sort of general guideline do you give Tosca for deploying these arms (along with Kershner, de los Santos, and Walker/Haines)? Committee? Designated closer? Designated Ace? Reliever Roulette, as in 2003?

I don't know that it really matters (as the top 4 are pretty much the same), but I suspect that KL will be the primary closer unless he shows he can't do it. I'm pretty sure Tosca prefers having a set closer and will mix and match the others.

Chris Gomez may be the best solution for a back up infielder that is on the market at the moment. Maybe with all of these arms now, JP will use one of them to trade for an infielder and fill the hole that way. If not, having all of these useful arms is nice and at worse, if the Jays are really out of it by the trade deadline, they can be used to get prospects. The past couple of years have seen a lot of interesting pitching prospects traded by contenders in order to get good relievers.

Chris Gomez may be the best solution for a back up infielder that is on the market at the moment

Sadly, I think this is correct. There's nothing out there.

Jonny asked about the optimal deployment of this now deep bullpen. I'd add to the method used by Robert in his simulation as follows: Lopez and Kershner (if several lefties are coming up in the ninth) close, Speier and Ligtenberg handle set-up (on alternating days please), De Los Santos is your 7th and 8th inning LOOGY, Adams handles 6th and 7th and Walker/Haines handle long relief/mop-up. With the usual proviso that a reliever should be used every 5 days or so, even if it has to be out of role, to prevent rust.

The key is to avoid the Speier/de los Santos
/Ligtenberg/Kershner/Lopez inning.

46% of the budget on pitching is a little high, but not really unreasonable in light of the modest salaries for Hinske, Wells, Hudson etc. It does however cast the expected salary for Delgado in a different light.

Craig,

I don't think Halladay will be getting 8 million this year. If JP does sign him to a longterm contract, it will probably be something that is a bit more back loaded so that Halladay will only make between 6.5-7 million this year. That would at least keep the Jays under budget. I would like to see the numbers on Vasquez's deal as JP will probably have to give Halladay a deal that is very similar in terms of length and value.

The rest of the salary list looks pretty good with only Lilly maybe making less than 2.4. If he does, it won't be much less, maybe a couple hundred thousand at most.

Committee? Designated closer?

It would appear that Tosca susbscribes to the closer theory, and we know he loves Aquilino's approach to the job, but he does have options. The only "guideline" that J.P. has made public so far is that Ligtenberg will be used in a setup role, and de los Santos is slotted as the late-inning LOOGY. Presumably, Adams becomes the RH equivalent to Kershner, as both have been effective in earlier, longer stints. That leaves Speier, who did close in Colorado, and brings his funky, deceptive delivery back to a league that hasn't seen it for three years. Assuming they are all healthy in spring training and perform up to their usual standards, I think Justin will begin the season as the nominal closer, and he'll keep the job as long as he's doing it well.

However, Lopez might actually be the ace reliever. He'll get some two-inning saves when Speier has been used two or three days in a row, he'll pick up some wins when he keeps the Jays in a tie game for an inning or two, and he learned a few things in his rookie season. If Speier disappoints, he's next in line.

I am a little bit concerned that they might already be planning to break camp with 12 pitchers, with Walker or Haines (or a spring surprise -- Chen?) as the seventh bullpen guy. Now that the first 11 are significantly better than in the past couple of years, I'm strongly against the idea. With several off-days in April, there won't be enough work to go around; Josh Towers will get only three or four starts the first month, and I don't expect the other starters to need a mopup man as often as Hendrickson and Walker did. We'll see even more unneccessary pitching changes than usual, and the bench will be a man short. With four OF, six IF, two C and a DH, the best bat off the bench in games Myers starts will be Berg or the fourth outfielder, and there isn't much depth for injuries or extra-inning games.

If JP really does want to spend half the payroll on pitching every year, there is no way that the Jays will be able to keep Delgado at anywhere near what he is making now. If he was willing to drop down to somewhere between 10-12 million per year, I could see the Jays keeping him. If not, the Jays will let him walk after this year and take the 2 picks in the draft as I would think they would certainly have to offer him arbitration.

Anyone know how Justin Miller is doing with his comeback from surgery? What about Bob File? Those are a couple of other names that have to be included as possible surprises in the bullpen if they produce good springs. Perhaps they are now trade bait? It will defintely be an interesting spring to see what happens with the bullpen.

I agree with Coach that the Jays probably don't have to start the year with 12 pitchers on the roster. An extra infielder on the bench might be nice to have. I don't see the point in carrying a 5th outfielder though as Berg can always play left or right in a pinch. Who is the 4th outfielder though? Werth? Hermanson?

80% of $18.5 million is $14.8 million, so I don't think the Jays will be offering arbitration to Delgado (and that would be the absolute minimum they would be paying him). I think the only chance Delgado stays in Toronto is if they sign him to an extension prior to November - which I think is a little better than 50/50.

I don't think the team allocates x% to pitching and y% to hitting. It's just a matter of allocating resources in the best manner.

The players closest to Toronto are all position players (Gross, Rios, Quiroz) so the Jays lineup will be pretty cheap in the forseeable future. If you took Delgado's salary out the lineup is pretty cheap today (FCat would be the highest paid at $2.2 MM).

In a couple of years though, when Wells and Hinske's contracts grow and Halladay and Batista have there back loaded contracts grow, the Jays won't be able to afford Delgado, those 4 and have enough money left over to still field a good team unless they increase payroll. No matter how many young cheap guys are on the way up.

For a 1 year deal, the Jays might be willing to offer Delgado arbitration, they think they are really close and couldn't replace what he would bring to the team with the money they would be saving. Tough to tell the fans that it is ok to let one of your best players walk if there is a legit chance that the team could contend in 2005.

Tough to tell the fans that it is ok to let one of your best players walk if there is a legit chance that the team could contend in 2005.

Oakland's done it for the past few years. I would agree that all things being equal though that you want to keep Delgado if possible.

I would be absolutely stunned if the Jays offered Carlos Delgado arbitration.

I agree wit this reasoning. So do the Jays trade Delgado at the deadline? You could bring quite a haul, I expect, from a team like the Dodgers.

Carlos, we love you, we just can't afford you.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article.jsp?content=20040107_084623_3384

Sportsnet has finally put it up on there website so I guess there is a truth to the rumour and ESPN wasn't just making things up.

Maybe the the new site design could incorporate the phrase "Delgado has a no-trade clause!" somewhere prominent and in big, bold letters. If not, as the year progresses, we'll consistently have to remind posters who try to argue that Carlos should be traded.

I agree wholeheartedly with Coach on the 12 pitchers issue - this is a pet peeve of mine. It would be idiotic to waste a roster spot on an extra pitcher simply because your manager won't let his guys face more than two batters. I'd rather see 10 pitchers and 15 hitters than 12 and 13.

Cristian - Carlos isn't an ass like Jaun-Gone, I see no reason why he'd block a deadline trade if he knew he wasn't going to resign.

S.K., how about a compromise? Below my "Carlos has a no-trade clause!" sign we can post your "Carlos isn't an ass" sign.

S.K., how about a compromise? Below my "Carlos has a no-trade clause!" sign we can post your "Carlos isn't an ass" sign.

LOL.

By the way, that's why I raised the Dodgers as a possibility. I assume Carlos would likely waive his no-trade if the team he was going to would negotiate a longer-term signing at a favourable rate. LA would have the money to do that, especially with a few mistakes coming off the books over the next few years.

Why would the Jays trade Delgado? I thought "enlightened" ... never mind.

Chris Gomez may be the best solution for a back up infielder that is on the market at the moment

Well Mike D hasn't been heard from of late, so maybe it's a prime time to bring up Jose Hernandez again. If you're looking for a bat, the strikeouts are a little disturbing (okay, a lot disturbing for some). But if you're looking for a glove... the glove is good, and the bat has more potential than most. Jose made $1M last year and absolutely stunk, I wouldn't be surprised to see him settle for a minor league deal.

That said, there is a some hope that Gomez could be something more than a black hole in the lineup... His OBP was generally reasonable until 2001, when his walk rate mysteriously fell through the floor. To be precise, 1 walk every 9.2 AB before 2001, 1 walk every 20.8 AB from 2001 to present. Chris Gomez, meet Mike Barnett.

I'll come aboard the Jose Hernandez boat. He's a decent fielder, and with good instruction has the power to turn into a Rob Deer-type hitter. Which would suck if he was your everyday first baseman but is pretty good if he's your backup shortstop.

(click links for stats - Hernandez career is .251/.310/.418, Deer was .220/.342/.442, a bit better, but add a positional adjustment and they're similar)

I feel bad for fans of the Orioles, who have looked at their biggest weakness (a rotation of fourth and fifth starters) and decided to fiddle while Rome burned, letting their two best starters (and one of their two best relievers) leave after having traded their #1 guy at the deadline. They have apparently decided instead to sink $160 million into three of the five or six most overrated players in baseball. I wish them luck - it's great to have stars, they are certainly necessary in order to win, and God knows the Orioles system hasn't developed one in a looong time. But with a pitching staff patched with duct tape, the Orioles aren't going anywhere in 2004.

Dear Craig,

Don't feel bad for Orioles fans. We don't expect to contend in 2004 and, judging from their actions, neither does the dynamic GM duo. They've kept the young arms with the high ceilings (Riley, Ainsworth) and the young suspect (Dubose). They let the old/oft injured (Hentgen) and the overpaid mediocrity (Jason Johnson) go. Rumor has it that they're trying to bring back Ponson. Denny Bautista, John Maine and Eric Bedard (three more young arms with high ceilings) will probably arrive in September. By 2005 and 2006 the Orioles may be solid contenders, and the East will be a madhouse.

Your Pal,
Greg O's Fan

... now back to your regularly scheduled Blue Jays programming ...

I checked the Prospectus card for Hernandez and they have him at consistently 2 to 4 WARP. Again, definitely good for a backup SS with a pretty good glove.

Interesting thing I noticed when I linked to Hernadez's stats. He has played a fair numer of games at 3rd base, and even some CF, 1B and 2B. He is versatile, which isn't a bad thing. He reminds me of Tony Batista, with the all or nothing batting approach but Baseball Reference says one of his most similar is the all too familiar ex-Jay Alex Gonzalez.

By the way, Jonny, that's a fine header and 1st line.

Thanks Mike... it's a bit of a bluff on my part, I don't think I've ever seen The Addams Family.

The FAN reports that Adams and Gomez have been signed. Wilson and Walker off the 40 man.

I think that the Jays are in a good position in terms of the Delgado situation. He has had two great years and about five other 270/385/525 years as a starting Blue Jay. He will likely have a first half of '04 with numbers somewhere in this range. Since the Dodgers and perhaps the Red Sox have tons of money and spots open at DH/1B, he could end up going there at the deadline if the Jays get a great offer. If they are neck and neck for for a playoff spot a trade to Boston would be out of the question, but if Toronto maintains a slow rate of improvement, they could potentially free themselves of six mil (a third of his eighteen) and gain a blue-chipper or two. If there are no takers or they decide to hold on, they can offer Carlos a trimmed-down contract and go from there. Delgado is only comparable to Stieb and Alomar as the best Blue Jay ever and it's great to have his veteran prescence on the team, as he helps them offensively to noend and as of last year has discontinued his defensive incapabilities.

Tom Wilson wasn't out of work long - claimed on waivers by the Padres.
Good luck, Tommy.

Wilson makes a very good platoon mate with Ramon Hernandez who for some reason just can't seem to hit lefties while of course Wilson can mash lefties but can't hit righties. Good to see he'll be getting another shot in the majors.

http://economics.about.com
I've created a new thread about the signings.

Cheers,

Mike

I feel bad for O's fans who think any semi-prospect in their system automatically has a "high ceiling."

Greg: Denny Bautista, John Maine and Eric Bedard (three more young arms with high ceilings) will probably arrive in September.

Logan: I feel bad for O's fans who think any semi-prospect in their system automatically has a "high ceiling."

I'm not sure who's supposed to be the semi-prospect. I hope it's not John Maine, who led the minors in strikeouts this year, pitched a no-hitter in his second high-A start, and posted a 185:38 K:BB ratio. I hope it's not Bedard, who had consistently struck out a man per inning or more with reasonable command before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament in 2002, and who posted a 26:4 K:BB ratio in six comeback starts last year across three levels. As for Bautista, all he did last year was strike out a man per inning and put up a decent 138:70 K:BB ratio in high-A and AA ball at the age of twenty.

Personally, I think the O's system isn't all that bad these days, and Will Lingo agrees. Incidentally, BA ranks Mike Fontenot (.325/.399.481 as a 23-year old 2B in AA) as the O's ninth best prospect; I think he compares reasonably well to Russ Adams, who should have about the same ranking in Toronto's system.

I hope it's not John Maine, who led the minors in strikeouts this year

How selective of you. Maine was a college pitcher in the Sally League for just over half the season. His strikeout rate came way down when he moved up to high-A, where he belonged the whole year. According to Will Lingo, his fastball is only 90-92 and he doesn't have a quality second pitch yet.

I hope it's not Bedard, who had consistently struck out a man per inning or more with reasonable command before tearing his ulnar collateral ligament in 2002, and who posted a 26:4 K:BB ratio in six comeback starts last year across three levels.

Three starts were in the GULF COAST LEAGUE, and two in the NY Penn. This for a guy who has appeared in the majors. Ooh, I'm impressed.

As for Bautista, all he did last year was strike out a man per inning and put up a decent 138:70 K:BB ratio in high-A and AA ball at the age of twenty

When did a K/BB under 2 become "decent?" Did I miss a memo somewhere?

Anyway, the guys I was referring to as having less than high ceilings were Maine and Ainsworth.

Maine's strikeout rate fell all the way from 1.41 to 1.09 when he moved up. Wow, only 10 K's per nine innings. His K/BB stayed near 4:1. And you make it sound like Will Lingo is down on him, whereas in a recent chat he wrote He has great stuff and great makeup, so it will be fun to see if he is as effective against more advanced hitters.

I'll grant you that quoting Bedard's 2003 stats was a bit much. But this is a guy who laid waste to the low minors and was holding his own in AA when he tore his UCL. The important thing is that his arm's still on and initial indications are that he can still pitch. BA is quite high on him.

Bautista turned 21 in October. His K/BB in high A and AA was 1.97 -- "under 2," as you put it. What's decent for you for a 20-year old at those levels?

I'll grant you that calling Ainsworth "high-ceiling" is a bit of a stretch, although he's certainly a valuable property. I missed him in Greg's original post.

I actually think you probably have some interesting points to make about the minors. But why do you have to go out of your way to insult other writers and posters? There's no need to write things like "I feel bad for O's fans who think any semi-prospect in their system automatically has a "high ceiling." Try posting your arguments first and using measured language rather than posting your opinions as if they're statements of fact and then waiting for others to dispute them.

I actually think you probably have some interesting points to make about the minors. But why do you have to go out of your way to insult other writers and posters?

It was hardly going out of my way. The post to which I referred was ridiculous on its face. Anything more than a quick line seemed like a waste of time, given the guy's bias (which he's up front about) and the fact that he's calling any semi-prospect in their system "high-ceiling."

Maine's a good prospect, but he doesn't have a high ceiling. David Bush is a good prospect, but he doesn't have a high ceiling either.

Try posting your arguments first and using measured language

Different people have different styles of posting. This is mine.

And as for Bautista, his walk rate was high in A-ball and awful in AA. These guys were all 20 in AA and posted better K/BB ratios than Bautista: Edwin Jackson, Zack Greinke, Travis Blackley, Sean Burnett, and Jae Ryu. The only guy I could find who was 20 in AA with a worse ratio than Bautista was Mike Jones of the Brewers.

Different people have different styles of posting. This is mine.

I'm not sure what style you're laying claim to, I've seen two entirely different ones in this thread alone. One, seen in your first post here and in other threads in the past, is a one-line unsubstantiated attack on somebody else's legitimate opinion or work. The other, seen in your second and third posts in this thread, is a supported argument of your position. I see a lot of value in the second style, reasoned disagreement is productive. I fail to see any value at all in the first style.