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In a review of the year's predictions, good and bad, Richard Griffin takes the time to look back on predictions in columns of 2003. While one of these in particular is not as accurate as our resident Nostradamus' version, they stir interest. If there's one thing that we humans wish we could do, it's predict the future accurately.

In that spirit, here is your chance to show off your psychic powers: the Batter's Box Crystal Ball, 2004 edition.


In this thread Bauxites are challenged to make predictions related to baseball for the year 2004. You're free to divine the future in any way you like, though some of the more grisly methods are probably better left out.

Some basic rules:
  1. These predictions must be original. I define 'original' here as 'not originating from another human.' If your pet hamster tells you juicy gossip about Dave Stieb's second comeback, that's fair game; if your neighbour tells you it, it's out.
  2. Predictions must be made on or before December 31, 2004, and must be made before the event in question will supposedly occur. No fair predicting Roy Halladay's 20-11 record next year after the Jays finish out their season with their 87th win.


You'll note that this extends throughout the new year. This is so that we can refer to it as the canonical Batter's Box Prediction Thread, at least until we replace it with a new one.
Crystal Ball, 2004 Edition | 74 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Norm - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 12:29 PM EST (#77049) #
I'd like to participate, but I do not, under any circumstances, read anything written by that super MEDIOT Griffin.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 12:38 PM EST (#77050) #
http://economics.about.com
Very Improbable Prediction for 2004:

Soriano dealt, A-Rod becomes new Yankee 2nd sacker.

Cheers,

Mike
_Steve Z - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 12:53 PM EST (#77051) #
2004 Prediction: Richard Griffin doesn't make it through the year, as the Star finally gives him the axe, while hiring his replacement from among the many awesome Batter's Box contributors.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 12:53 PM EST (#77052) #
Soriano dealt, A-Rod becomes new Yankee 2nd sacker.

Mike, may as follow this fantasy land rumour to its logical conclusion: ARod becomes the third baseman, Boone moves to second base.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 12:59 PM EST (#77053) #
http://economics.about.com
Mike, may as follow this fantasy land rumour to its logical conclusion: ARod becomes the third baseman, Boone moves to second base.

I thought about that, but A-Rod's range and good footwork around second would be wasted at third. I could see them putting him at third, though, because 2nd basemen do have a tendency to get injured.

At any rate, I don't think they'd put A-Rod at short and move Jeter to third, which would be the sensible thing to do.

Cheers,

Mike
_Geoff - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:14 PM EST (#77054) #
One of Oakland's Big Three gets traded

The Mets win the N.L. East
_Ryan - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:28 PM EST (#77055) #
2004 Prediction: Richard Griffin doesn't make it through the year, as the Star finally gives him the axe, while hiring his replacement from among the many awesome Batter's Box contributors.

No fair! That sounds more like a self-fulfilling prophesy than a prediction. :-)

My predictions for 2004:

- Art Howe is the first manager fired.
- The Orioles improve only marginally in the win column, resulting in their management claiming they didn't have enough leadership.
- The Wild Card will be decided in the final weekend of the season, between the Yankees and Blue Jays.
- The Expos still don't have a permanent home in place for 2005.
- Bartolo Colon is deemed the worst free agent signing of the season.
- Jesse Orosco finally retires after 137 years in the major leagues.
_mathesond - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:30 PM EST (#77056) #
- Pudge signs with the White Sox.
- Blalock and Park traded for Aramis Ramirez and Kerry Wood.
- after a torrid spring training, Jayson Werth (or possibly Gabe Gross) gets traded to L.A. for Odalis Perez...unless Montreal jumps in first and offers Armas, Jr.
- As soon as Pete Rose is declared eligible for the Hall of Fame, he's on some sotr of Home Shopping Network hawking more autographed merchandise.
- Mark Prior goes 15-9, not quite building on last year's success, and misses 3 weeks with arm/shoulder troubles.
- Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton show their worth as complementary #2 starters, but Brett Myers will be the Phillies ace.
- Billy Wagner will be booed at least 4 times - at home - before July 1. Larry Bowa will be reviled by the home fans from May 1st on.
- The Mets will improve by 10 wins over 2003's dismal campaign, but no one will notice.
- The Tigers will improve by 25 wins, but the only people that notice are Midwestern sportswriters that give Trammel a few 3rd-place votes for Manager of the Year.
- The Yankees will sign Rickey Henderson on Aug. 31, making him eligible for the postseason. To make room for him, Felix Heredia will be released.
- Oakland will get past the first round of the Division Series, only to lose in 5 games to Boston...
- ...who will lose in 6 games to the Andy-Pettitte-led Houston Astros.
- (The above prediction obviates the necessity of pointing out the Yankees are ringless since the additions of Mussina and Giambi. But I'll write it anyway because it's fun)

Stay tuned!
_steve - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:40 PM EST (#77057) #
one of two occurs

red soxs explodes or

yankees explodes
_Brent Taylor - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:44 PM EST (#77058) #
From today's Griffin column:

If we had one wish for baseball in the new year it would be that more fans accept the game on the field for what it is and push away from the computer.

Gee, I wonder who he was talking about here? Get over it, sir. Please and thank-you.

Brent 'prediction? Woodward learns better defence off season.' Taylor
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:52 PM EST (#77059) #
Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton show their worth as complementary #2 starters, but Brett Myers will be the Phillies ace.

Where does Randy Wolf fit in?
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 01:53 PM EST (#77060) #
Chris Woodward emerges from the short shadow of Mike Bordick to play solid defence. He hits .290 with 18 homers in 2004, and is re-signed to a 2 year deal after the season.

The Fighting Jays find themselves 7 games out of a wild-card berth at the All-Star break. Unable to sign Carlos Delgado long-term, they trade him to a NL West contender for pitching help. They call up Alexis Rios, Guillermo Quiroz and David Bush from Syracuse in short order in late July. Frank Catalanotto moves to first base and responds with the best year of his fine career. Rios and Quiroz start slowly, but pick up steam in September. David Bush, although not destined for greatness, starts off on fire, winning 8 of his first 10 decisions and the hearts of fans. After President George wins re-election, the Star runs pictures of David and George in its end of year summary with the headline "the Year of Bush".

E.&O. E.

Mike G
_mathesond - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 02:00 PM EST (#77061) #
Where does Randy Wolf fit in?

During the NFC CHampionship game, Wolf will be struck by an errant Donovan Mcnabb pass, causing him to think he's Rush Limbaugh and precipitating an addiction to painkillers.

Eventually he gets better
Dave Till - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 02:22 PM EST (#77062) #
Right-ho, then: it's time for 2004 predictions. Guaranteed to be worse than flipping a coin.

1. The Yankees will have injury problems, and lots of them. They've signed a lot of oldsters, and oldsters pull muscles a lot.

2. The Yankees will struggle partway through the season, until King George opens his wallet yet again. They'll squeak past the Jays for the wild card, but the abyss is looming.

3. The Red Sox win the division easily, despite clubhouse dissension, but go splat in the playoffs. The Curse is strong.

4. The Blue Jays become everybody's second-choice team, as they contend right down to the final wire. Only a last-minute surge from the Yankees' hired guns holds them off.

5. Happy with the 2004 season, Carlos Delgado agrees to re-sign at the going market rate. Josh Phelps is traded for pitching.

6. Baltimore signs Vlad and I-Rod. Vlad and I-Rod aren't pitchers. 'Nuff said.

7. The Expos contend again, against all odds, but are forced to trade a key player down the stretch (to the Yankees) to "make payroll".

8. The Tigers win more games than Milwaukee. Both lose more than 100.

9. The Mets and Braves fight for last place. Mass firings ensue.

10. Chicago wins the AL Central, and Oakland wins the AL West. Oakland beats the Yankees, and Chicago upsets the Red Sox (I'm telling you, the curse is strong). Oakland over Chicago in the ALCS.

11. In the NL, Houston, led by Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, win their division handily. The Cubs win the wild card, but lose in the postseason when a low-flying bird crashes into Mark Prior mid-delivery, injuring his shoulder (Prior's, that is, not the bird's). NL postseason: Philly over the Cubs, Houston over San Fran, Houston over Philly.

12. The World Series games are scheduled to start at 8:30 Eastern time, which matches up perfectly with twilight in the West, where all this year's games are actually played. Batters, squinting into sunlight, set records for batting futility. Houston sweeps the series, winning 1-0, 2-1 (10), 3-1 and 2-0.

13. Richard Griffin writes 47 more columns employing the royal "we" and criticizing computer geeks. Geeks chuckle quietly to themselves.

14. Da Box triples its visitor count, and three leading Bauxites are asked to be part of an on-air post-season round table. They prove to be far more intelligent and articulate than the local sportswriters. Geeks chuckle quietly to themselves.

Happy New Year, and remember: when you push away from the computer, the computer invariably pulls you back in. (Geekz Rool!1!!1!)
_Tassle - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 03:15 PM EST (#77063) #
Josh Towers wins 30 games with a 4.80 ERA and wins the Cy Young.
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 03:17 PM EST (#77064) #
1. Eric Hinske hits .290/.370/.510 and commits 17 errors. People stop yakkin' about his D.

2. If Odalis Perez is traded he approaches various records for giving up home runs, but L.A. loses the trade.

3. The Indians and Padres are the most improved teams in the American and National Leagues respectively (as measured by change in the Win column).

During the NFC CHampionship game, Wolf will be struck by an errant Donovan Mcnabb pass, causing him to think he's Rush Limbaugh and precipitating an addiction to painkillers.

Oh, okay. Just wanted to be sure you didn't actually have him as a #4 behind Myers, Millwood, and Milton... I wouldn't want to have to accuse you of being a writer for a major Toronto newspaper.
_mathesond - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 03:20 PM EST (#77065) #
Oh, okay. Just wanted to be sure you didn't actually have him as a #4 behind Myers, Millwood, and Milton...

Oh, Myers won't be the no. 1 pitcher at the start of the season...but he will be by the end
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 03:31 PM EST (#77066) #
Myers as the #1 by season's end is a fine prediction. Milton as a better pitcher than Wolf is lunacy.
_Kristian - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 03:55 PM EST (#77067) #
Here are some predictions for 2004,

- Hank Blalock wins the batting title
- The Yankees win the wild card after trading for Delgado
- Josh Phelps will hit 35+ homeruns and not be traded but become the Blue Jays new firstbasemen.
- Red Sox, Angels and Royals all win their divisions. Yankees grab the wild card. The Red Sox face the Phillies in the Series but lose the 7th game with Pedro pitching.
- Orlando Hudson gets traded before the year is out.

Now for some wacky predictions

-Sammy Sosa gets caught again for a corked bat, swears it was his batting practice bat and the bat boy gets fired.
- Chan Ho Park gets caught with sandpaper then tries to karate kick the umpire who confiscates it.
- Jeff Weaver plunks Mike Piazza and Piazza charges the mound. Neither dug out empties as they all just watch and laugh cheering on the opposite teams guy.

Mark it down that Roy Halladay wins 25 games and goes back to back in the Cy Young.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 04:26 PM EST (#77068) #
http://economics.about.com
2004 Prediction: Richard Griffin doesn't make it through the year, as the Star finally gives him the axe, while hiring his replacement from among the many awesome Batter's Box contributors.

If Griffin was sacked, I think the Star would be better off not hiring anybody to replace him.

What they could do instead is hire a bunch of freelancers to do an article a week. I bet if they offered even $50 or $100 per article, a bunch of really great blog writers would jump at it. You could have Coach write a 700 word article on Monday, Mick on Tuesday, and Gleeman could take up about 4 pages of the Saturday Star. If a big trade went down on Wednesday night, they could use wire stories to cover it for Thursday's paper, then have Dudek write an in-depth trade analysis for Friday's paper.

I'm a little surprised that the Post hasn't tried something like this, given how little Blue Jay material they currently publish.

Cheers,

Mike
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 04:43 PM EST (#77069) #
I'm a little surprised that the Post hasn't tried something like this, given how little Blue Jay material they currently publish.

What we've got right now is two papers churning out quantity and two sticking to quality.

I like your idea, but it would require at least one full time person at the paper co-ordinating it all, at least initially. And I could see the requisite trust the paper would be placing in the raft of freelancers being a sticking point.
_Gwyn - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 04:45 PM EST (#77070) #
Thats pretty close to what the Post did Mike. They just got one writer instead of a bunch and from a different website.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 04:50 PM EST (#77071) #
http://economics.about.com
I had no idea they got John Lott from a weblog. I quite enjoy his stuff, particularly since I get the Post free at work. :)

Cheers,

Mike
_SportsmanTO - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 04:54 PM EST (#77072) #
I skimmed through the thread here so if I said anything that anybody else here did then sorry:

2004 predictions:

-Pete Rose is re-instated by Major League Baseball. He's almost immediately named the Reds new manager.

-The Red Sox despite spending oodles of money in the hopes of defeating the "Evil Empire" will find that they've created a monster in trying to trade Nomar. The team will struggle and the clubhouse atmosphere will be attrocious. Francona will be fired before the season is over.

-Carlos Delgado will FINALLY win an MVP

-The Atlanta Braves run of NL East division championships will end when they barely win 80 games. Bobby Cox is fired/resigns.

-The Jays will be fighting for the AL East against the Yankees who will finally be truly showing signs of fallibility. Throughout the year some of the Jays mega-prospect will be called up as Orlando Hudson, Chris Woodward and Greg Myers are traded for pitching and bench strength. The influx of youth will provide excitement that hasn't been seen in T.O. since 1993 as fans fill the dome cheering on the "Young Fighting Jays".

-Delgado re-signs and Roy Halladay signs a 4 yr deal after he has another 20 win season and Cy Young award.

-Tosca is sadly tossed at the end of the year for Art Howe with the reasoning being that he guided the A's success and the Mets failure was an aberation.

I think that's juicy enough don't you? :D
_Stupid Cubs - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:09 PM EST (#77073) #
This is the year a curse dies.

Growing up outside Chicago, I had to choose one baseball team to love and one team to hate, and until I reached the age of sanity, I loved the White Sox and hated the Cubs. That's why it pains me to predict that the Cubs will win the World Series in 6 over the Yankees. I'm picking the Yankees becuase I'm apparently a pessimist, and for the simple fact that even though I think they aren't as good as they were last year, they still haven't been knocked off the top of the AL mountain.
The Cubs will go through the Padres and the Phillies (who beat the Astros) to reach the World Series, and the wild card Yankees will beat the Mariners and the Red Sox(who beat the Royals).
Cy Youngs will go to Prior and Javier Vazquez, and the MVP's will be Ichiro and Thome.

The Jays will make another run early in the year but will get muscled out in late August when the Yankees acquire Todd Helton. But Delgado will re-sign, and Phelps will be traded with a top prospect to Oakland for one of their ace pitchers (I will predict Tim Hudson).
Dave Till - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:34 PM EST (#77074) #
I had no idea they got John Lott from a weblog. I quite enjoy his stuff, particularly since I get the Post free at work.

TruNorth Baseball has been around for ages - John Lott used to be on the Blue Jays mailing list. I also enjoy his stuff (though I haven't read it lately, as I never touch the Post).
Dave Till - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:37 PM EST (#77075) #
Sorry, that should read "the Blue Jays fans mailing list". For those of you who don't know about the list, it has been run by Phill St. Louis since at least 1992. It's pretty quiet lately, as many of its readers and posters are here now. :-)
Lucas - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:38 PM EST (#77076) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
Philadelphia will win the NL East but won’t win the NLDS. Florida will not make the playoffs.

Neither Boston nor Chicago (NL) wins the World Series.

No AL manager is fired during the season. Joe Torre retires after the season.

In Colorado, Royce Clayton will lead off or bat second in at least 60 games. Attendance will fall below two million for the first time in franchise history. Colorado fires Dan O’Dowd and Clint Hurdle the day after the season ends.

In Detroit, both Jason Johnson and Rondell White spend time on the DL. One misses more than half the season. Nevertheless, Detroit will win more games than Milwaukee.

In Texas, Alex Rodriguez remains in Texas for the duration. Chan Ho Park will qualify (barely) for the ERA title, throwing 170 innings with a 5.25 ERA. Kevin Mench will have a OPS 100 points higher than David Dellucci, but Dellucci will get 150 more at-bats.

The Milwaukee stadium fiasco will generate megawatts of anger and resentment but nothing of substance. Attendance will fall to 1.25 million.

The Montreal/Loria racketeering case will be settled with MLB avoiding disclosure of club finances. Andrew Zimbalist will write a brilliant dissection of the matter, but almost no one will read it.

I will fail to defend the BBFL Premiereship after losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Gashouse Gorillas.

And a couple more...

On July 31, Bud Selig will decree that no team in the AL Central deserves a playoff spot. The West and East divisions fight over an additional wild-card berth. The Blue Jays, with 89 wins, just miss making the playoffs. Richard Griffin blames an entire generation of computer-savvy fans for this failure and demands Keith Law’s replacement with former Seattle Pilots manager Joe Schultz (deceased).

Scott Lucas and Mick Doherty will get together for a Ranger game and discover that they absolutely despise each other. They will contradict each other’s posts regardless of merit, to the point where Mick posts “the sky is blue,” whereupon Scott files an angry, 10,000 word retort involving how “the sky isn’t REALLY blue, it just APPEARS blue because of light-wave scattering, you jerk,” and Mick should check his facts before printing such tripe. Coach will make Scott stand in a corner for thirty minutes to think about what he’s done.
_Mick - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:48 PM EST (#77077) #
The Yankees get old all at once and collapse to 80-82. The Red Sox battle injuries all season, losing Pedro and Nomar, and collapse to 79-83, one game behind the hated Yankees. The Orioles, who don't remember until May that a pitching staff is actually required in this game, hit the ball all over the place to barely finish 77-85. The Blue Jays, sights set on 2005, trade Delgado, can't find a shortstop, lose Lilly and Hentgen to injuries, and lose Carlos Tosca his job by scrabbling to 74-88.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays, behind Tino Martinez' MVP year, Jose Cruz Jr.'s second consecutive Gold Glove, 19 wins by Cy Young runner-up Mark Hendrickson and 22 from Cy Young winner John Halama, coast to an 82-80 mark and match the 1973 Mets for worst record by a division-winner (non-strike-year category).

Rays win! Rays win!
_Mick - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:50 PM EST (#77078) #
P.S. Too late. I already despise you, Scott.
_benum - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 05:50 PM EST (#77079) #
Well...I ran the 2004 season with Diamond Mind and the updated rosters available at Primer. Believe it or not, the Jays won the East with a 107 win season! (I called up Gross, Rios and Quiroz for about 200 AB's each as Johnson and Cash stunk and Cat was mediocre). If anyone is interested, I could post more details.

I think I'll run a bunch of sims in a row and see what happens.
Craig B - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 09:04 PM EST (#77080) #
The New York Yankees will miss the playoffs.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 10:23 PM EST (#77081) #
http://economics.about.com

Top Ten Improbable Predictions For 2004

  1. Yankees trade Soriano, pick up A-Rod, for no other reason than to show up the Bo Sox.
  2. Only one of Batista, Lilly, and Hentgen wins more than 10 games, but the Jays still manage to win 90.
  3. Pete Rose hired as Expos bench coach and serves as Frank Robinson's right hand man.
  4. General Manager Shuffle. As Scott Lucas mentioned, O'Dowd and Hurdle fired. The Rockies decide to plunder a 90 win Blue Jay squad by replacing them with Keith Law and Brian Butterfield respectively. Law hires Will Carroll as his special assistant, but Keith still does most of the statistical scouting himself. Much to the chagrin of statheads, J.P. doesn't hire an internet statnerd to replace Law, but does hire three Rotman MBA Quant Jocks (Quantitative Finance Geeks) as interns.
  5. General Manager Shuffle 2. Beane gets bored with the A's job and in December will take over a Reds franchise that will lose 100+ games in 2004. Paul DePodesta promoted to General Manager of the Athletics; he hires within for the now vacant assistant GM position.
  6. Eric Hinske commits 28 errors but is applauded for hitting 35 homeruns.
  7. Another former big league player comes out of the closet, and much to everyone's surprise, it isn't Brady Anderson.
  8. For the third year in a row, the World Series will be won by a team that pundits predicted would finish in the second division at the beginning of the season. After the World Series, fans of supposedly "small market" teams will complain about how they can't compete against the Yankees.
  9. Esteban Loaiza loses more games than he wins.
  10. Atlanta wins the NL East, once again surprising the hell out of everyone. Once again they will lose in the playoffs to a much inferior team.
Dave Till - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 10:44 PM EST (#77082) #
Speaking of Diamond Mind: I just got the 2003 season disk, and am replaying game 1. Ken Huckaby has just hit a two-run home run off Roger Clemens. Should I ask for my money back? :-)
_WillRain - Tuesday, December 30 2003 @ 10:57 PM EST (#77083) #
Well.
this is my very first post here (this place doesn't look or seem to function like an average message board so I've been a bit intimidated) but here goes:
1. Cat spends a significant stretch of the first half on the DL and Werth steps in and preforms well enough to cement his place in the Jays' future;
2. Seeing this, and noting that both Gross and Rios are ripping up AAA, the Jays - even though firmly in the race - trade Cat at the deadline and install Werth in RF and recall Gabe Gross who acquits himself well. Towers will stink up the joint in May and lose his job in early June, he will be replace by filler for a month and Bush will be recalled after the break and have a solid but unspectacular second half. Hentgen will go on the DL in late August and McGowan will get 2-3 starts in his place and all but one will be outstanding. Arnold will be shifted back to closer after again being mediocre at AAA;
3. Woodward continues his uncanny simulation of the career of Rich Arullia by having a fine offensive year and a not embarrassing defensive year;
4. Delgado talks a good game but leaves town for a better deal when the Jays refuse to budge off a $10 mil per year offer;
5. Yanks clubhouse is a disaster from March 1 on, with Sheffield in open rebellion by early May among other problems. Joe Torre quits in disgust on Memorial Day weekend;
6. Royals again jump out to an early lead in the central and drift back to the pack over the course of the season but still win the division;
7. Shannon Stewart has a better year than in 2003 and no one in North America proposes that he win the MVP;
8. Escobar has a better year than Colon;
9. The Angels win the AL West, the A's win the Wild card and the Jays finish 4 games out in the Wild Card race;
10. Philadelphia has a horrendous April and a mediocre May and Larry Bowa is fired and replaced by Mike Hargrove and storm to the division title;
11. Houston wins the most games in the NL and is the prohibitive favorite to go to the W.S. but they don't;
12. Shawn Green rebounds with an MVP caliber year and carries the Dodgers to a win in a badly depressed division;
Alternate prediction: (only one)
IF the above prediction of Jays success is wrong and the Jays finish with less wins than in 2003, Tosca will de dismissed late in the season and Paul Molitor will be the new jays manager (with Godfrey leaning on JP to hire him if necessary)
_Jonny German - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 12:47 AM EST (#77084) #
this is my very first post here (this place doesn't look or seem to function like an average message board so I've been a bit intimidated)

That's the way we like it. Non-average, that is, not intimidating. Good post.
_JTJ - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 02:46 AM EST (#77085) #
The Brewers take the Wild Card, make it to the World Series to then revert to an American League club, claiming home-field advantage. An eight-game World Series is played and ends a 4-4 tie - a pained Bud Selig watches from the owner's box, bratwurst in hand. The heartburn of the 2002 All Star Game revisits.
_JTJ - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 02:51 AM EST (#77086) #
Seriously though:
- the Orioles remain in fourth place, even with Vlad
- the Mariners do not come close to contending
- the new ballpark in San Diego has no impact
- Tosca ends the late-inning revolving bullpen door routine (optimistic) - if he doesn't he should be fired.
_Rusty Priske - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 11:02 AM EST (#77087) #
The Jays finish third in the east.

Again.

Now if we want a prediction for 2005....

Oh, also Hudson and Delgado end the season in different uniforms.
_pete_the_donkey - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 11:57 AM EST (#77088) #
1. Alexis Rios tears up Spring Training, and the Jays have no choice but to give him a starting job. He runs away with rookie-of-the-year.
_Santa - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 12:24 PM EST (#77089) #
1. Alexis Rios = Sil Capusano (not sure of last name spelling). Will suck in AAA. Unsuccessfull career.

2. Angels, A's, Settle, Texas will finish in this order in the west.

3a. Sox, Yanks, Jays, Other bird, Rays will finish in this order in the east.

3b. Jays will not win a division title at the earliest 2010 or until the CBA changes dramatically.

4. Jays bullpen will be just as bad as last year.

5. Jays win the same amount of games (85-90) in 2004. 2005 will see them retread back to 75-80 wins.

6. Lilly = Lidle

Side note: Anybody else noticed the Jays 1B history.
Willie Upshaw - Was pushed by F. McGriff. Upshaw evenually traded
Fred McGriff - Was pushed by J. Olerud. Experimented with Olerud in the outfield. McGriff evenually traded
John Olerud - Was pushed by C.Delgardo. Experimented with Delgardo in the Outfield. Olerud was evenually traded
Carlos Delgardo - Being pushed by Phelphs. Delgardo to be traded?
_Oggman - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 12:34 PM EST (#77090) #
My Predictions

- Just to be different: They Yankees will win the AL East, and while having some injury problems, will not have the collapse that everyone seems to predict. The BoSox will finish 2nd, 3 games back.

- Toronto will finish 3rd, and will improve by 2 games, the pitching will be better, but the offense will decline.

- AL teams will figure out that Vernon is a first pitch hitter, and start throwing pitches out of the zone, his BA will drop, but his walk rate will increase slightly.

- Delgado will not sign a new deal, but won't be traded either as JP wants the draft picks.

- Franky the Cat will be traded during the season.

- Ted Lilly will be a bust, and will post a losing record and have the highest ERA of any Jay starter that starts 20 games.

- Texas will finish at .500, finishing third in the AL West, sparking more "A-Rod's contract is crippling the franchise" stories during and after the season. Again, mainstream media will completely ignore the fact that Chan Ho Park is making 14 million to suck.

- Seattle will finish 4th, and won't win 70 games and have the second worst offence in the AL (behind DET), and it will be even worse when Boone gets traded to the Cubs.

- St. Louis' offence will put up HUGE numbers, but still will struggle to finish .500 because their staff also likes to give up HUGE numbers.

- Burnitz will put up huge counting stats in COL (HR and RBI) and his 1.5 million will be considered a steal.

- Detriot have the worst record in the AL, Cleveland is the most improved, the Yankees have the best record.

- Milwakee have the worst record in the NL, Mets are the most improved (but still suck), the Astros have the best record.

Divisions
AL
East   Cent   West
NYY    MIN    OAK
BOS    CHW    AHM
TOR    CLE    TEX
BAL    KCR    SEA
TB    DET

NL
East   Cent   West
PHI    HOU    LA
MON    CHC    SF
ATL    STL    SD
FLA    CIN    COL
NYM    PIT    ARI
        MIL

Hmm...not to sure about those, BOS and CHC win their respective league wild cards. Or those HTML nonbreaking spaces I put in, see if they work.

So your playoffs are

NYY v. MIN (NYY in 6)
OAK v. BOS (OAK in 6 Billy Beane dies of a heart attack after the 3rd out in the 9th)

NYY v. OAK (NYY in 6)

HOU v. LA (HOU in 5
PHI v. CHC (PHI in 7)

PHI vs. HOU (PHI in 6)

World Series

NYY v. PHI (NYY in 7)

My fingers are getting sore now, so that's it for now.

Oggman
_Matt - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 02:32 PM EST (#77091) #
Steve Simmons will write something dumb.

Geoff Baker will write something dumber.

Richard Griffin will write something dumbest.
_JTJ - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 02:39 PM EST (#77092) #
Reed Johnson will not belong at the big league level by the all-star break.
Pistol - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 03:03 PM EST (#77093) #
The Jays’ regular starting lineup on August 1 until the end of the season will be:

C – Quiroz
1B – Delgado
2B – Hudson
3B – Hinske
SS – Woodward
LF – Gross
CF – Wells
RF – Rios
DH - Cat
Mike D - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 03:21 PM EST (#77094) #
Ouch. That's a double-shot of "no love" for Reed Johnson, Official Friend of Batter's Box. Certainly, both predictions may come true, but I'll go out on a limb and say that Sparky defies the odds and appears in 140 games as a Blue Jay.

By the way, does anyone remember when Luciano Borsato of the Winnipeg Jets was the "Official Friend of SportsLine"? Sports broadcasting sure has come a long way...
_SportsmanTO - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 03:54 PM EST (#77095) #
Pistol, Delgado the no. 2 hitter?! interesting personally i'd switch places with Hudson as you'd have more speed at the top. Tho it's wacky enough that it might just work. Delgado wouldn't get the protection he's used to and would probably get walked more hence getting Hudson into better situations. It would surely force him to mature as a hitter quickly. I just don't like the fact that you don't have protection for Delgado and Hinske tho. Maybe i'm too traditional so what's the deal?
_SportsmanTO - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 03:55 PM EST (#77096) #
D'OH! never mind I realized you did that by position my bad "hits head on desk"
Pepper Moffatt - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 03:55 PM EST (#77097) #
http://economics.about.com
Pistol, Delgado the no. 2 hitter?! interesting personally i'd switch places with Hudson as you'd have more speed at the top. Tho it's wacky enough that it might just work. Delgado wouldn't get the protection he's used to and would probably get walked more hence getting Hudson into better situations. It would surely force him to mature as a hitter quickly. I just don't like the fact that you don't have protection for Delgado and Hinske tho. Maybe i'm too traditional so what's the deal?

I probably shouldn't speak for Pistol, but that's a fielding lineup, not a batting lineup. Note how all the positions are in order.

I mean, there is no way Chris Woodward is hitting fifth. :)

Cheers,

Mike
_Donkit R.K. - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 04:00 PM EST (#77098) #
SportsmanTo - I realize that was an honest mistake , but it combined with your second post had me chuckling aloud ;-)
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 04:11 PM EST (#77099) #
Mike D,

Your prediction is consistent with Pistol's. Reed Johnson could very well get into 140 games with 450 ABs: 80-85 as a starter prior to July 31, 10-15 as a 4th outfielder starting after August 1 and 40 or so as pinch-hitter or pinch-runner.

Here's a parlour game. Name the Jays who will have at least 300 PA and who will have an OBP higher than .350.

I'll lead off: Delgado, Hinske, Woodward, Catalanotto and Gabe Gross. OK, OK, Vernon Wells will have an OBP of .351 and squeak in too.
_Mick - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 04:14 PM EST (#77100) #
I'd think Jeremy Giambi will manage those numbers with the Jays after he's picked up as a free agent and gets some of Delgado's ABs after the trade deadline when Carlos heads to the Dodgers.
Pepper Moffatt - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 04:16 PM EST (#77101) #
http://economics.about.com
That list looks pretty good to me, except I don't think Gross will get 300 PA.

What about Phelps, though? He had 396AB last year with a .358 OBP. Do you think he'll not get enough PA? Not reach .350? Not be a Jay?

Cheers,

Mike
_Speedy Creek - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 05:33 PM EST (#77102) #
First time poster and wanted in on this action. Here are my predictions:

Phelps leads the team with 46 HR making Delgado walking at the end of the season easy.
Jays battle the Sox until the last 2 weeks of the season and end up 4 games back(94 wins)but ahead of the Yankees by 5 games.
With the Jays in contention Rodgers pitches in with 5 mil for the trading deadline. JP uses the money for a quality #2 pitcher that will help this year but especially in 2005.
SP end up with the following wins Doc - 23, Batista -15, Hentgen - 14, Lilly 12, Mid season pick up - 4.
Coach - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 05:38 PM EST (#77103) #
Within one game of a playoff spot at the break, the Jays trade Cat and two prospects for an established starter on the verge of free agency and a LOOGY. Gross and Rios are promoted; Sparky is the fourth outfielder and becomes a September hero with a bases-loaded HBP.

The Red Sox don’t implode, they win 103 games. The A’s easily take the West and nobody wins the Central; with four teams tied at 79-83, Bud Selig awards Boston a first-round playoff bye. The Jays win 94 games, but the Yankees take the wild card on the last day. Doc, on two days rest, hangs tenth-inning curve to Aaron F. Boone and loses, 1-0. A local scribe interprets this as a disappointing season and blames computers.

Chris Woodward keeps the shortstop job all year; Russ Adams gets a look in September. Kevin Cash keeps Guillermo Quiroz on the farm until after the AAA playoffs. Greg Myers plays fewer innings, but continues to have productive at-bats. Eric Hinske turns a lot of those 2003 doubles into homers, and Josh Phelps hits two more bombs into the 500 level.

Justin Speier leads the team in saves, though Aquilino Lopez is the best reliever. Jayson Durocher looks so good in training camp that Talley Haines is returned to the D-Rays. Valerio de los Santos and Bruce Chen turn out better than Doug Creek, but lefty relief continues to frustrate the fans. Carlos Tosca is criticized in game threads for the vast majority of his bullpen moves, but enough of them work in the second half that he is voted Manager of the Year.

Halladay signs a four-year, $44 million deal in Dunedin. Doc, Carlos and Vernon stay healthy. Halladay goes 24-8 but Curt Schilling wins the Cy Young. There's no chance of it happening, but people will waste newsprint and bandwidth speculating about a Delgado trade. Second again in the MVP vote, Carlos files for free agency, and after mulling over a $90 million, six-year deal from the Tigers, accepts much less to remain a Fighting Jay.

SkyDome attendance will be up 30% from 2003. Led by Aaron's booming voice and inventive signs, the Cheer Club will have so much fun at games that its membership will grow into the hundreds. Hoarseness will be epidemic among Bauxites.

In 2004, the Batter’s Box hit counter will reach half a million by June 1 and a million by the end of the year. We're planning spring training previews of all 30 teams, expanded coverage of the Toronto farm system, and more Jays exclusives. I confidently predict another Q & A very soon, and a new site design.

One thing is certain. For the second year in a row, I will have enormous fun doing this. To all the friends I’ve made here, Happy New Year.
_sweat - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 06:05 PM EST (#77104) #
I hate to chime in after coach's swan song for 2003, but my predictions:
Boston, Oakland, KC, wild card: Jays
Key injuries to Giambi, williams and kevin brown cause the yankee melt down(along with having sheffield there to disrupt everything).
Steinbrenner has a major stroke at the end of the season.

SF, Phillies, Cubs and Houston.
Pujols and Carlos MVP
Roy repeats, and pettite shocks everyone for CY
Lucas - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 06:07 PM EST (#77105) #
Nobody wins the Central; with four teams tied at 79-83, Bud Selig awards Boston a first-round playoff bye. The Jays win 94 games, but the Yankees take the wild card on the last day... A local scribe interprets this as a disappointing season and blames computers.

Thief!

Happy New Year, Coach and fellow Bauxites.

As statistically inclined as we are, let's make sure nobody becomes a statistic tonight. Don't drive under the influence, and don't be afraid to stop those who are about to.

This Public Service Announcement brought to you by the Batter's Box.
Coach - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 06:55 PM EST (#77106) #
Thief!

Add to '04 resolutions: Don't steal Scott's material, even if it's just great minds thinking alike. Read entire thread before commenting.
_WillRain - Wednesday, December 31 2003 @ 07:00 PM EST (#77107) #
The .350 game:

Delgado
Hinske
Catalanotto
Wells
Phelps

This might be too easy...the only real decision is whether or not Wells improves that much in that skill...
_Tassle - Thursday, January 01 2004 @ 12:40 AM EST (#77108) #
Vernon walked more and struck out less last year. As teams begin to fear his bat like they fear Delgado's, the walks will keep increasing.
_Tassle - Thursday, January 01 2004 @ 12:42 AM EST (#77109) #
And I should add that when you can hit .300 BA with .500 slugging, you will never be out of a job, even if you never walk.
_A - Thursday, January 01 2004 @ 04:36 AM EST (#77110) #
By virtue of there being 61 (now 62) posts in this thread and none being alike (in theory), Da Box will hit .450 on the basis that where ever one prediction has been made, the polar opposite is likely to follow ;-)

#133341 Posted 12/31/2003 12:24 PM by Santa
Santa, I believe Richard Griffen et al at the Star have scooped you on every single one of those predictions :-p

Coach, you're selling the hit counter short. We'll be at 500,000 by Opening Day and, with the success of the Fan Club (which will be acknowledged by the Organization in an undecided but distinct manner), 1 million will be reached by September 1.

Is anyone from Da Box lucky enough to get down to Florida for Grapefruit league action? That would make for some awsome Spring Training coverage :-)
_A - Thursday, January 01 2004 @ 04:38 AM EST (#77111) #
Just to follow up on the last thought...for logistical purposes, the public library next to Dunedin Stadium has free Internet access!
_Oggman - Friday, January 02 2004 @ 03:18 PM EST (#77113) #
Because I'm stuck at the office waiting for a return call from a client in Fargo, ND., I thought I'd throw a few more predictions down.

- Jays won't steal their 10th base until the 3rd week in June. Leading the club in SB at season end will be Reed Johnson with 11, second will be Woodward with 5.

- After some more silly MVP and ROY voting, MLB will force writers to submit in writing why each person get's their vote in an attempt to eliminate past silliness like Delgado being left off 2 ballots, Berroa being left off a ROY ballet because they writer didn't know he was eligible, Mark Grudz getting one 9th place MVP vote, etc, etc, etc.

- A previously mediocre pitcher signed to a minor league contract with an NL team will finish 3rd in the NL Cy Young. He will constantly be refered to as "Loiza-like".

- In my previous prediction thread I predicted that Bret Boone would get traded to the Cubs. I guess I should take that back with the uber platoon of Walker and Grudz, but a prediction is a prediction. So I'm assuming that 1 will get hurt, which will prove that one alone, is not good enough to win the division, prompting the trade for Boone.

- If the WhiteSox don't make the playoffs, it will somehow be considered Frank Thomas' fault, Ozzie Guillen will get off scottfree, but after the Sox suck in 2005 he'll be fired.

- Someone will hire Tony Muser because he's a good "baseball man".

- Andy Petitte will post an ERA+ no better than 105.

- On a hot Sunday afternoon game at Yankee Stadium, an enraged Kevin Brown will kick Derek Jeter square in the balls after he misses yet another ground ball that any other shortstop would have fielded. In the interview afterwards he'll say: "I always heard he was bad, but this..." and just tail off.

- The Jays will realize that it's time to fish or cut bait with Jayson Werth.

- A-Rod will, regardless of all the bad press because of the Boston trade situation, will statistically have a better year than last year, but will finish 3rd in the MVP.

- More fat writers who have never been to a gym will continue to accuse players of taking steroids or HGH with concrete proof such as "Look how big Ted Williams was during his prime, now look at players today, of course their on something!!"

- Albert Pujol's will win the NL MVP, his first of 3 in his career.

Well that's enough for now I guess...more later when I'm bored again.
_Steve Z - Sunday, January 04 2004 @ 05:44 AM EST (#77114) #
Interesting forecast from the New York Post's Joel Sherman:

"The Yanks will win the East again, but only after obtaining David Wells and Al Leiter in July to provide lefty heft to a rotation in which Kevin Brown goes down with injury and Javier Vazquez moves toward a Weaver-esque 12-14, 4.85 season. Roger Clemens comes out of retirement, but not for the Astros or Yanks. Seeing the marketing possibilities, he kisses and makes up with the Red Sox.

However, in a one-game playoff to determine the wild card he is outpitched by Ben Sheets, whom the Blue Jays had picked up on July 31. But the Red Sox only lose when Terry Francona relieves Clemens with Pedro Martinez and leaves Martinez in too long, leading to the firing of the first-year manager and the hiring of Joe Torre for 2005."
_Jordan - Sunday, January 04 2004 @ 05:57 PM EST (#77115) #
Is anyone from Da Box lucky enough to get down to Florida for Grapefruit league action? That would make for some awsome Spring Training coverage

If everything breaks right, I'm hoping to be in the Dunedin area the last week of March. If so, I'll file reports as often as I can (thanks for the Net access tip, A!) and one big report on my return.

I never predict anything accurately. I am the world's worst predictor. So I will merely propose this: the Blue Jays will be in the wild-card hunt September 1.
_Rob - Tuesday, January 06 2004 @ 07:33 PM EST (#77116) #
I won't be in Dunedin for the break but I will be in Florida and will hopefully see a Jays game down near Fort Myers. If only I could get access to a computer....but I will post here as soon after to let you know if anything earth-shattering happened.

Happy Late New Year to all, and let's hope Tosca resolved to leave his pitchers in for at least two batters.
_Rob - Tuesday, January 06 2004 @ 07:35 PM EST (#77117) #
Oh yeah, when I mean "post", I mean add to an existing thread. I'm not quite good enough to be a regular here, but I could write for the Star.
Joe - Sunday, February 01 2004 @ 12:33 AM EST (#77118) #
http://me.woot.net
My pre-preseason prediction: Hinske and Phelps will have breakout seasons. This will come to be for three separate reasons:
  1. Hinske is fully recovered from his injuries. He'll recover his form in the box and play at least league-average defense.
  2. Tosca will realize that benching Phelps to play Sparky, while fun, is counterproductive to the team's continued success. Phelps will compile at least 500 AB, slug at least .500 and go yard 28-32 times.
  3. The Jays as a whole will be playing well, and good chemistry always beats money.
I'd also like to mention that if both Phelps and Hinske don't have breakout years, this prediction can be considered incorrect.
_Ken - Wednesday, February 25 2004 @ 07:15 PM EST (#77119) #
The Angels will win the west if they play as well as they have before. Remember how they took apart the Yanks in 02? No fluke, just a healthy team and now they are even better.
_Ken - Wednesday, February 25 2004 @ 07:15 PM EST (#77120) #
The Angels will win the west if they play as well as they have before. Remember how they took apart the Yanks in 02? No fluke, just a healthy team and now they are even better.
Lucas - Thursday, March 04 2004 @ 05:26 PM EST (#77121) #
Me, Dec 30, 2003:

In Texas, Alex Rodriguez remains in Texas for the duration

Oops.

To quote a very drunk and bedraggled Neil Young: "Well it wasn't supposed to go down that way."
_Shane - Thursday, March 04 2004 @ 05:39 PM EST (#77122) #
To quote a very drunk and bedraggled Neil Young: "Well it wasn't supposed to go down that way."

Neil Young drinks?
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